Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the mid - term and short - term structures of various energy and chemical products, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the fundamental and technical analysis of each product. The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends for different products, and many products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and geopolitical events [1][2]. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ starts the second - stage 165 barrels/day复产 plan. In October, it will increase production by 137,000 barrels/day. The market has a large surplus expectation after the first - stage复产, and the second - stage复产 will add to the pressure with the demand shifting from peak to off - peak season. Geopolitical events and sanctions expectations bring short - term support, but the fundamental trend is downward [2]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term and short - term downward structures. The intraday trend is a bit subtle, testing the short - term pressure of 489 (11 contract). It is recommended to observe for one more day. The hourly - level short positions can be held cautiously [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly start - up rate has a slight increase, but there are unplanned maintenance. The downstream profit is poor, the start - up rates of ABS and EPS decline, and the port inventory continues to accumulate, which is a short - term pressure point. After the autumn maintenance peak, there will be new device put - into - production pressure in September - October, and the supply - demand situation is weak. There is also the risk of inventory over - filling [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. After a sharp fall, it is in a normal repair period. It has reached above the short - term pressure of 7040 (10 contract). The remaining short positions can be held cautiously, with the final stop - profit at 7180 [5]. Rubber - Logic: Seasonal factors are strong, but there is no weather speculation on the supply side. Only short - term typhoons and rainy seasons make raw material prices strong. The import volume in August increases both year - on - year and month - on - month, with a continuous increase expectation. The start - up rate of semi - steel tires decreases significantly, while that of all - steel tires remains high. The current fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation structure at the daily level, and the hourly - level upward structure is being tested. After an increase in positions and a fall below the support of 15880, the short - term upward trend is under threat. It is close to the lower limit of the August range. It is recommended to wait and see at the hourly level and look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute chart after a rebound fails to break through the pressure of 16000 [7]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand of styrene - butadiene rubber. The start - up rate and output of some devices decrease due to maintenance, and the inventory of downstream semi - steel tires also drops. The main contradiction lies in the cost of butadiene. With the arrival of a large number of ships, the port inventory has increased significantly, ending the previous tight situation. In the medium term, the supply pressure of butadiene will gradually appear, and the upstream crude oil will also face surplus pressure [10]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward structure at the daily level, and short - term downward structure at the hourly level. Since August 22, the position has increased by 97%. After an increase in positions and a break - through today, it may end the oscillation and turn to a downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 11760. The 15 - minute short positions can be held at the hourly level, with the stop - profit at 11760 [13]. PX - Logic: The profit of PX is restored, and the start - up rate is increasing after the maintenance peak. The domestic PX load is 83%, and the Asian PX load is 75%. The demand - side device maintenance and复产 co - exist, but the overall start - up rate of PTA has declined, and the previous inventory reduction has slowed down. The short - term fundamentals have weakened, and more attention should be paid to the cost of crude oil [17]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. The intraday trend is oscillatory, and the small - cycle should pay attention to the pressure at 6770 on the 15 - minute chart. The remaining short positions can be held [17]. PTA - Logic: It lacks its own driving force, and attention should be paid to the cost collapse logic of crude oil [21]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 4700. The short positions can be held, with the stop - profit at 4700 [21]. PP - Logic: The supply - side start - up rate increases, and new devices will be put into production. The demand enters the peak season, and the supply - demand pressure is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the cost collapse logic [22]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillatory. The short - term pressure at the hourly level is 7090, which is relatively far. Attention can be paid to the 6990 pressure on the 15 - minute short - cycle. If it breaks through, partial stop - profit can be made [22]. Methanol - Logic: The domestic and overseas start - up rates are high, and the arrival pressure in September is large. The port inventory continues to accumulate, reaching a record high in the past 5 years. The downstream demand is weak, and the short - term pressure is great [24]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillation and short - term downward structures. After an increase in positions and a fall, the 15 - minute cycle turns down. Attention should be paid to whether the hourly - level downward slope returns. The short - term pressure is at 2435. The remaining short positions can be held cautiously, with the final stop - profit at 2435 [24]. PVC - Logic: After the previous maintenance, the start - up rate remains at a high level of 75%. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is strong, so the supply is difficult to reduce. The inventory continues to accumulate to the highest level in the same period of history. Before the real estate bottoms out, the demand is difficult to improve, and the fundamentals are bearish [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure at the daily level and short - term downward structure at the hourly level. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 4930. The short positions can be held [27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The port inventory is at a low level in recent years, so the fundamentals are relatively strong compared with other energy and chemical products. But with the increase in domestic start - up rate, it is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation cycle. The short - term situation is strong, but the medium - term expectation is bearish [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward and short - term downward structures. The intraday oscillation, but the closing price hits a new low, and the short - term decline may accelerate. The short - term pressure is at 4375. The short positions can be held, with the stop - loss at 4375 [30]. Plastic - Logic: The start - up rate of PE is stable, and the demand improvement in the peak season is slow. The fundamental driving force is general [32]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillation/downward and short - term downward structures. The intraday trend is oscillatory. The short - term pressure at the hourly level is 7365, which is relatively far. Attention can be paid to the 7290 pressure on the 15 - minute small - cycle. The 15 - minute short positions can be held, with the stop - loss at 7290 [32]. Soda Ash - Logic: After the end of the anti - involution hype, the glass - soda ash with the greatest supply - demand pressure starts the spot - futures regression logic before delivery. The anti - involution has no real impact on the supply. The over - capacity trend continues, and the output has further increased after the price increase. The real estate demand is difficult to bottom out, and the supply - strong and demand - weak situation remains unchanged. The large inventory and high - output pressure continue to suppress the price [33]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 1320. The short positions can be held [33]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Last week, the supply - side output and start - up rate decreased due to autumn maintenance and transportation restrictions during the military parade. After the parade on September 3, the supply - side speculation may end. The export demand is at a high level but the profit is declining, and the domestic non - aluminum demand is rising in the early peak season, while the alumina demand remains flat at a high level. The overall supply - demand is strong, but the supply pressure is greater. The inventory is at a record high in the past 5 years, and there is an over - supply situation after the start - up rate recovers [36]. - Technical Analysis: Hourly - level downward structure. The intraday oscillation does not change the downward trend. The short - term pressure is at 2625. The short positions can be held, with the stop - profit at 2625 [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows a mixed performance. Bean meal, jujube, and some oils are rising, while cotton and pigs are facing downward pressure or limited rebounds. The market is mainly influenced by factors such as supply - demand expectations, USDA reports, and seasonal consumption patterns [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Bean Meal - The main 2601 contract of bean meal rose and recovered the losses of the previous two days, driven by the rebound of US soybean futures. The market expects the USDA to lower the US soybean yield forecast. Although domestic bean meal inventory increased in September, the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the tightening of soybean supply in the fourth quarter support the price. Before the USDA report, short - term trading is recommended, with support at 3065 and resistance at 3100 [2]. (2) Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil first declined and then rose. After the release of the MPOB's bearish monthly report, the price digested the negative pressure. The rise of crude oil, the expected moderate bullishness of the USDA report, and the decline in Malaysian palm oil production in early September supported the price. Before the USDA report, close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 9250 and resistance at 9394 [3]. (3) Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil rebounded. Before the USDA report, short - covering boosted the price. Domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, but the start of double - festival stocking supports the price. Close short positions and wait for opportunities, with support at 8250 and resistance at 8366 [5]. (4) Eggs - The main 2511 contract of eggs fluctuated slightly higher at a low level. The double - festival stocking demand supported the price in the near term, but the high egg - laying hen inventory and the approaching peak egg - laying season may increase supply pressure. Hold short positions, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3069 [7]. (5) Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples continued to rise. The procurement of early - maturing apples in the western region was active, and the reduction of seasonal fruits and double - festival stocking demand supported the price. Close short positions and hold light long positions, with support at 8150 and resistance at 8300 [10]. (6) Jujubes - The main 2601 contract of jujubes rose strongly. There is a strong expectation of new jujube production reduction this year, and the market has high expectations for the opening price in October. The start of double - festival stocking and the approaching sugar - increasing stage support the price. Hold light long positions, with support at 11110 and resistance at 11315 [11][13]. (7) Sugar - The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to rebound, driven by the rise of overseas raw sugar futures. The adjustment expectation of the sugar - making ratio in Brazil and the domestic mid - autumn stocking supported the price. Close short positions, with support at 5531 and resistance at 5580 [14]. (8) Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn rebounded slightly after two - day decline. The new corn is starting to be listed, with high opening prices and active downstream procurement. Close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2184 and resistance at 2210 [17]. (9) Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton continued to decline. There is a strong expectation of new cotton production increase in China, and the consumption recovery is slow. Hold light short positions, with support at 13780 and resistance at 13900 [20]. (10) Pigs - The main 2511 contract of pigs fluctuated lower, with limited rebound. The supply is in excess in September, but there is an expectation of increased demand during the double - festivals. Hold short positions, with support at 13200 and resistance at 13400 [21][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including their fundamental logic, technical analysis, and trading strategies. Most products show a bearish or neutral outlook, with suggestions mainly to hold short positions or wait and see. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ started the second - phase 165,000 barrels/day复产 plan, with an expected large surplus after the first - phase复产. The second - phase复产 combined with the demand shift from peak to off - season will increase supply and decrease demand. South American situation is tense but not significantly worsened, and the fundamental drive is downward [2][3]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's rebound is for testing the short - term pressure at 489 (11 contract) [3]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 489 [3]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: Weekly开工 increased slightly but there are unplanned overhauls. Downstream profits are poor, ABS and EPS开工 decreased, and port inventory continued to accumulate. After the autumn overhaul peak, new device commissioning in September - October will bring supply pressure, and the supply - demand pattern is weak [6]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure on the hourly chart is being tested. Today's intraday is oscillating, and it's a normal repair after the previous sharp drop. Standing above the short - term pressure of 7040 on the 10 - contract challenges the hourly downward structure [6]. - Strategy: Cautiously hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle, with a final take - profit at 7180 [6]. Rubber - Logic: Seasonal factors are strong, but there is no weather speculation on the supply side this year. Only short - term typhoons and rainy seasons make raw material prices temporarily strong. Imports increased in August. On the demand side, semi - steel tire开工 dropped significantly, while full - steel tire开工 remained high. The current fundamentals are neutral [9]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating structure on the daily chart, upward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating. After the previous technical breakthrough, the hourly level is considered an upward structure, with short - term support at 15880 [9]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand of styrene - butadiene rubber. Supply - side device overhauls led to a drop in开工 and output, and downstream semi - steel tire inventory also decreased. The main contradiction lies in the cost side of butadiene. With the arrival of cargo ships, port inventory has increased significantly, and the supply pressure will gradually materialize in the medium - term [13]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, waiting for the short - term trend structure to be established on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the hourly line closed at the lower edge of the oscillation range. Wait for the night session to verify the downward breakthrough [13]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the 15 - minute small cycle, with a take - profit reference of 11960 on the 15 - minute level [13]. PX - Logic: PX profit recovery and the end of the overhaul peak led to an increase in开工. The overall开工 of PTA decreased, and the previous destocking of PX slowed down. The short - term fundamentals weakened, and more attention should be paid to the cost - end impact of crude oil [16][19]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term downward structure on the hourly chart is being tested. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the hourly cycle's downward trend has not reversed. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper - edge pressure at 6770 [19]. - Strategy: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle [19]. PTA - Logic: It lacks its own driving force, and attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic of crude oil [20]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with the short - term pressure at 4700 [20]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a take - profit reference of 4700 [20]. PP - Logic: Supply - side开工 increased, and new devices will be put into operation in August - September. Demand entered the peak season, and the supply - demand pressure is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the cost - end collapse logic [23]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the short - term pressure at 7090 is far. Pay attention to the 15 - minute short - cycle pressure at 6990, and partial take - profit can be done if it breaks through [23]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: Domestic and overseas methanol开工 remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate to a five - year high in September. Downstream demand weakened, and the short - term pressure is huge [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillating on the daily chart, short - term downward on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, with short - term pressure at 2435 [27]. - Strategy: Cautiously hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle, with the hourly line 2435 as the final take - profit [27]. PVC - Logic: Previous overhauls ended,开工 remained at a high of 75%. The strong comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali makes it difficult to reduce PVC supply. Inventory accumulated to the highest level in the same period, and demand is hard to improve before the real estate bottoms out [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the downward structure remains unchanged after a rebound. The short - term pressure is at 4965 [31][32]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Port inventory is at a multi - year low, making its fundamentals relatively strong compared to other energy and chemical products. However, with the increase in domestic开工, it is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. Short - term is strong, but medium - term is bearish [34]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 4375 [34]. - Strategy: Convert 15 - minute short positions to hourly positions, with a stop - loss reference of 4375 [34]. Plastic - Logic: PE开工 remained stable, and the demand improvement in the peak season is slow. The fundamental driving force is average [37]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily chart, short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday is oscillating, and the short - term pressure at 7365 is far. First, pay attention to the 15 - minute small - cycle pressure at 7305 [37]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the 15 - minute level, with a stop - loss reference of 7305 [37]. Soda Ash - Logic: After the anti - involution speculation ended, the glass - soda ash with the greatest supply - demand pressure entered the spot - futures regression logic before delivery. The anti - involution had no real impact on soda ash supply, and the over - capacity trend continued. High output and high inventory pressure increased since August, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [40]. - Technical Analysis: Downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 1320 [40]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [40]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Last week, supply - side output and开工 decreased due to autumn overhauls and transportation restrictions in Shandong during the parade. After the parade, the supply - side speculation may end. Demand - side exports are at a high level but with falling profits. Domestic non - aluminum demand increased in the early peak season, and alumina demand remained high. Overall, supply and demand are both strong, but supply pressure is greater, and the inventory is at a five - year high [42]. - Technical Analysis: Downward structure on the hourly chart. Today's intraday oscillation did not change the downward structure, with short - term pressure at 2625 [42]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a take - profit reference of 2625 [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with significant drops in oil and fat prices, a decline in corn prices, and varied trends in other products such as eggs, apples, and others [1]. - Different factors influence each product, including supply - demand dynamics, external market news, and seasonal factors [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Oil and fat prices drop significantly, with palm oil leading the decline due to negative data in the Malaysian MPOB monthly report and the fall of US soybean oil. Corn prices decline further as new corn is listed, and egg price rebound lacks sustainability [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil drops significantly, affected by negative news of US soybean oil and the negative data in the Malaysian MPOB report. The inventory in Malaysia increased by 4.18% to 2.2 million tons in August. The strategy is to close long positions and lightly short - sell, with support at 9236 and resistance at 9300 [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil drops significantly, dragged down by the fall of US soybean oil and sufficient domestic supply. As of September 5, the inventory was 1.2388 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. The strategy is to close long positions and lightly short - sell, with support at 8240 and resistance at 8300 [3]. 3.2.3 Eggs - The main 2511 contract of eggs drops significantly, due to high egg - laying hen inventory. The strategy is to close long positions and lightly short - sell, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3040 [5]. 3.2.4 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples rebounds slightly after a sharp fall, supported by short - covering. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 8000 and resistance at 8166 [7]. 3.2.5 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates fluctuates narrowly. The strategy is to close short positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 10910 and resistance at 11090 [9]. 3.2.6 Sugar - The main 2601 contract of Zheng sugar rebounds at a low level, driven by the rebound of the overseas market. The strategy is to hold short positions for now, with support at 5503 and resistance at 5560 [12]. 3.2.7 Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn drops continuously, pressured by the listing of new corn. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 2188 and resistance at 2213 [13][15]. 3.2.8 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton first declines and then rises, but the weakness remains. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 13790 and resistance at 14000 [16][19]. 3.2.9 Live Pigs - The main 2511 contract of live pigs rebounds at a low level, but the weakness remains. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 13200 and resistance at 13400 [20]. 3.2.10 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal fluctuates downward. The strategy is short - term trading before the release of major report data, with support at 3050 and resistance at 3080 [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report treats the energy and chemical industry weakly [1] Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical industry is generally bearish, with different degrees of supply - demand imbalances and downward - facing fundamentals in multiple products [2][3][6] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: OPEC+ starts the second - stage 165 - barrel - per - day resumption plan, with 137,000 barrels per day increase in October. The domestic seasonal demand slows down earlier than overseas, leading to SC crude oil breaking through support first. The fundamental drive is downward [3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. There is an opportunity to short on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 489 (11 contract) [3] Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly start - up rate has a slight increase, but there will be unplanned maintenance. The downstream profit is poor, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. After the autumn maintenance peak, there will be new device production pressure in September - October. The supply - demand pattern is weak [6] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with a final stop - profit at 7180 (10 contract) [6] Rubber - Logic: Seasonal factors are strong, but there is no weather speculation on the supply side. The import volume is expected to increase. The demand is neutral, with the semi - steel tire start - up rate dropping and the full - steel tire start - up rate remaining high [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level has an upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see [9] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand of butadiene styrene rubber has no major contradiction, but the cost of butadiene is bearish due to increased port inventory and new capacity release. The upstream crude oil also has downward pressure [14] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term oscillating structure. Hold 15 - minute short positions, with a stop - profit reference of 11960 [14] PX - Logic: The PX start - up rate increases, and the demand - side start - up rate drops. The previous inventory reduction has paused, and the short - term fundamentals are weak, with more attention on the cost - end crude oil [16][19] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. Hold the remaining short positions [19] PTA - Logic: It lacks its own drive, and focuses on the cost - end crude oil collapse logic [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [20] PP - Logic: The supply - side start - up rate increases, and there are new device productions. The demand is in the peak season, and the supply - demand pressure is not obvious. Focus on the cost - end collapse logic [23] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions, and consider partial stop - profit if it breaks through 6990 (15 - minute short - cycle pressure) [23] Methanol - Logic: The domestic and overseas methanol start - up rates are high, the port inventory continues to accumulate to a 5 - year high, and the downstream demand is weak [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Hold the remaining short positions cautiously, with a final stop - profit at 2435 [27] PVC - Logic: The start - up rate is high, the inventory is at a historical high, and the demand is difficult to improve before the real - estate market bottoms out [28] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions, with a short - term pressure at 4965 [31] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The port inventory is at a low level, but it is expected to enter a inventory - accumulation cycle. The short - term reality is strong, and the medium - term expectation is bearish [32] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level has a downward structure. Transfer 15 - minute short positions to hourly positions, with a stop - loss reference of 4375 [32] Plastic - Logic: The PE start - up rate is stable, and the demand improvement is slow in the peak season. The fundamental drive is average [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level has a downward structure. Hold 15 - minute short positions, with a stop - loss reference of 7305 [35] Soda Ash - Logic: After the anti - involution hype, it enters the spot - futures regression logic. The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, with high inventory and production pressure [38] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a downward structure. Hold short positions, with a short - term pressure at 1320 [38] Caustic Soda - Logic: The supply - side production and start - up rate decreased last week, but the supply pressure will return after the end of special events. The demand is strong but the supply pressure is greater, and the inventory is at a 5 - year high [40] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a downward structure. Hold short positions, with a stop - profit reference of 2635 [40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Apple futures prices plummeted due to increased supply and production expectations, and the market outlook has weakened [1][2] - Egg futures prices rose strongly due to pre - Mid - Autumn Festival demand, but high egg - laying hen inventory may limit subsequent increases [1][3] - Cotton futures prices declined due to early new cotton listing and high - yield expectations, entering a downward trend [1][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Apple prices tumbled as early - maturing apples increased in volume and there were expectations of a new - season apple production increase, with short - sellers significantly increasing their positions [1] - Egg prices rose sharply, driven by pre - Mid - Autumn Festival demand and short - sellers closing a large number of positions. However, high egg - laying hen inventory may restrict future gains [1] - Cotton prices broke through support and declined due to early new cotton listing and high - yield expectations, entering a downward trend [1] II. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Apple: Plummeted - The main 2601 contract of apple futures dropped sharply due to short - sellers significantly increasing their positions. Early Fuji apple trading volume increased, supply rose, and the overall commodity rate was high, disappointing previous expectations of a shortage of high - quality apples. New - season apple production is expected to be stable with a slight increase, increasing the pressure of industrial hedging [2] - The main 2601 contract of apple futures fell below the 20 - day moving average, with a MACD death cross, showing weak technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small short position, with support at 7973 and resistance at 8100 [2] (2) Egg: Rose Strongly - The main 2510 contract of egg futures rose strongly, driven by pre - festival demand and short - sellers closing a large number of positions. Near the Mid - Autumn Festival, food companies' stocking demand supported the market, and the inventory days of both the production and circulation links decreased. The number of old hens sold increased, potentially reducing inventory pressure [3] - The main 2510 contract of egg futures broke through the 20 - day moving average, with a MACD golden cross below the zero axis and an expanding red column, showing strong technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small long position, with support at 2978 and resistance at 3080 [3] (3) Palm Oil: Oscillated Upward - The main 2601 contract of palm oil futures oscillated upward with a narrow range. The market is waiting for the MPOB monthly palm oil supply - demand report. Malaysian palm oil production increased slightly in August, while exports improved significantly, and it is expected that the inventory increase at the end of August will be limited. In China, the inventory of the three major oils increased slightly last week, and the inventory of palm oil increased by 11.31% year - on - year. Demand from school openings in autumn and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking supported the oil market [5] - The main 2601 contract of palm oil futures oscillated above the moving - average system, with a shrinking MACD green column, showing strong technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small long position, with support at 9426 and resistance at 9550 [5] (4) Red Date: Oscillated Downward - The main 2601 contract of red date futures oscillated downward, with weak performance. Double - festival stocking did not show explosive growth, terminal demand was flat, downstream procurement was on - demand, the de - stocking speed of sample points decreased month - on - month, and inventory was still much higher than the same period last year. Traders generally adopted an on - demand procurement strategy, and the market trading atmosphere was cold [7] - The main 2601 contract of red date futures fell below the 40 - day moving average, with an expanding MACD green column, showing weak technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a short position, with support at 10890 and resistance at 11185 [7] (5) Sugar: Continued to Fall - The main 2601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures fell again, pressured by increased domestic sugar imports. The sugarcane crop prospects in India and Thailand are good, Brazilian sugar mills have increased the sugar - making ratio, and global white sugar supply is becoming more abundant, with the outer - market raw sugar fluctuating at a low level. In the domestic market, the sales - to - production ratio in August was average, and there are still expectations of increased sugar imports. Customs data shows that China's sugar imports in July were the highest in the same period in the past 10 years, and expectations of increased imports and new - season production increases have weakened the futures price [9] - The main 2601 contract of sugar futures oscillated downward, with the price falling further below the moving - average system and a continuing MACD green column, showing weak technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small short position, with support at 5500 and resistance at 5532 [9] (6) Corn: Pulled Back and Adjusted - The main 2511 contract of corn futures pulled back and adjusted after reaching a phased high, as long - sellers took profits. Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops, and the market focus is on the opening prices of new - season corn in various production areas. Before the large - scale listing of new corn, there is a pattern of tight supply and increasing demand, with low inventory at all levels. After the listing of new - season corn, market purchasing enthusiasm is expected to be high, which will support the corn price. The technical adjustment space of the corn futures price may be limited [11] - The main 2511 contract of Dalian corn futures adjusted at a high level, with long - sellers closing their positions and a continuing MACD red column, showing a technical adjustment. The recommended strategy is to close long positions and conduct short - term trading, with support at 2200 and resistance at 2234 [11] (7) Cotton: Continued to Fall - The main 2601 contract of cotton futures continued to expand its downward space, pressured by the listing of new cotton. Although the supply of old - crop cotton in China is tightening, the expectation of new - crop cotton production increase is strong, and the overall picking time is earlier than last year. The early listing and high - yield expectation of new cotton have suppressed the cotton futures price. During the "Golden September" peak season, the production and sales of textile enterprises have improved, and the pressure on finished - product inventory has eased. However, new orders have not improved significantly, and some enterprises still have inventory backlogs. Enterprises mainly purchase cotton as needed, failing to form a concentrated purchasing wave, and consumption recovery is still slow [13] - The main 2601 contract of cotton futures fell below the 40 - day moving average, with a MACD death cross and an expanding green column, showing weak technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small short position, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [13] (8) Live Pig: Continued to Fall - The main 2511 contract of live pig futures continued to fall, pressured by increased supply from slaughter. The live pig production capacity is in the concentrated realization stage in September, and the inventory of market - suitable standard pigs and medium - large pigs may further increase, with great pressure from oversupply. The stock of breeding sows still exceeds the normal level. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that the inventory of breeding sows at the end of July 2025 was 40.42 million, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale pig enterprises in September increased month - on - month, the supply of market - suitable pigs is sufficient, the risk of pig diseases in some areas has increased, and there is a phenomenon of early slaughter. The prices of medium - large pigs are weak, and the sentiment of weight - reducing slaughter in the social and group pig enterprises has strengthened. High temperatures continue in southern sales areas, the sales of白条 are not smooth, and the improvement of consumption demand is weak, pressuring the pig price [15] - The main 2511 contract of live pig futures fell again and closed with a negative candle, with the price falling further below the moving - average system and an expanding MACD green column, showing weak technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small short position, with support at 13145 and resistance at 13300 [15] (9) Soybean Meal: Narrowly Oscillated - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal futures narrowly oscillated and closed with a small negative candle. The market is waiting for the USDA monthly soybean supply - demand report. Currently, the crushing volume of domestic oil mills remains at a high level of tens of millions of tons, and the inventory pressure of soybean meal is significant. Under high inventory, oil mills have increased the pressure to urge提货. Data from China Grain and Oil Business Network shows that as of the end of the 36th week, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. High inventory has restricted the increase of soybean meal futures prices, and the market has pulled back [17] - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal futures oscillated and closed with a negative candle, with a narrow range. The recommended strategy is short - term trading, with support at 3058 and resistance at 3080 [17] (10) Soybean Oil: Slightly Closed with a Negative Candle - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil futures slightly fell and oscillated and adjusted. The crushing volume of domestic oil mills remains at a level of tens of millions of tons, the supply of soybean oil has increased, and the inventory remains high. As of September 5, the soybean oil inventory was 1.2388 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%. However, with the approaching of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the stocking demand for soybean oil has increased, supporting the soybean oil price [19] - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil futures slightly adjusted, with the price fluctuating near the short - term moving average and a shrinking MACD green column, showing slightly strong technical indicators. The recommended strategy is to hold a small long position, with support at 8382 and resistance at 8460 [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Under the expectation of interest rate cuts, precious metals can still remain strong. Influenced by US President Trump's claim to remove Fed Governor Cook and the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts, precious metals rose last Monday, with gold hitting a new all-time high and then fluctuating at a high level. In September, the market focused on the US non-farm payroll data and the interest rate decision. The significant decline in non-farm payroll data and weak employment increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, which was negative for the US dollar and supported gold to reach new highs. Additionally, regional conflicts are important risks, and the safe-haven property of precious metals is strengthened. A long position approach is recommended [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis Domestic Aspect - In August, China's gold reserves increased by 1.7 tons to 2098.43 tons, an increase of 34.586 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative increase was 20.695 tons. Foreign exchange reserves were $33221.54 billion, a month-on-month increase of $299.19 billion and a year-on-year increase of $339.39 billion [4]. - China's PMI manufacturing index in August was 49.4%, a month-on-month increase of 0.1%. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.8%, a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, remaining above the critical point for four consecutive months with an accelerating expansion pace. The PMI data has been below the boom-bust line (50%) for 5 consecutive months, indicating insufficient market confidence and increasing safe-haven demand. The increase in foreign exchange reserves also poses challenges to foreign exchange management, and precious metal investment is a good option. Since November last year, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange has increased gold reserves for 10 consecutive months, an increase of 35.08 tons compared to October 2024, supporting the strong pattern of precious metals [10]. Foreign Macro Aspect - From a macro perspective, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7%, with an expected value of 49% and a previous value of 48%, better than the previous value but lower than the expectation. The number of non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 22,000 in August. Revised data showed that the number of non-farm payrolls in June was revised down from 14,000 to -13,000, the first decline in non-farm payrolls since 2020. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021. The expectation of an interest rate cut in the US in September's interest rate decision increased significantly. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in September was 0, the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut was 88.3%, and the probability of a 50-basis-point interest rate cut was 11.7% (the probability was 0 before the data was released). The increasing expectation of an interest rate cut and the weak US dollar provided some support for precious metals [11]. Other Aspects - Currently, there is no hope of a ceasefire in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is intensifying, and NATO may intervene in the Russia-Ukraine war. In addition, there is a risk of out-of-control conflict in Venezuela. Safe-haven sentiment remains an important factor that investors cannot ignore [12]. Technical Analysis Gold 2510 Contract - The outer-market London gold reached a new all-time high, reaching a maximum of $3600 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 4%. The weekly closing price of the Shanghai Shanghai Gold 2510 contract broke through the all-time high. The closing price at 15:00 on Friday was 817.52 yuan per gram, breaking through the range of 813 - 815, showing a breakthrough pattern. The night session continued to rise and broke through the recent high, maintaining a strong rhythm. Before the Fed announces the interest rate decision on September 18, the expectation of an interest rate cut still dominates the market trend, and a long position approach should be adopted [13][14]. Silver 2510 Contract - The closing price last week increased by 4.5%, reaching a maximum close to 10,000 yuan per kilogram. The night session on Friday opened high and closed low, forming a high-level oscillation pattern. Affected by the non-farm payroll data being far lower than the expected value, the US stock market declined, and commodities such as copper and oil also fell. The industrial property of silver was magnified, and its upward momentum was weak. Currently, the gold-silver ratio in the outer market is around 87.6, the lowest level since mid-July, with the possibility of a rebound and oscillation. It may be difficult for silver to show a good upward trend. In addition, before the Fed announces the interest rate decision on September 18, the probability of a sideways and slightly upward trend is relatively high, and a long position approach can be maintained in the short term [15]. Strategy - For the Gold 2510 contract, it is recommended to go long on dips. The recommended position-building range is 818 - 820, the stop-loss range is 807 - 808, the first target range is 835 - 838, and the second target range is 845 - 850 [2]. - For the Silver 2510 contract, there are two strategies: - Aggressive low-long strategy: The recommended position-building range is 9690 - 9700, the stop-loss range is 9630 - 9640. Aggressive operations should be carried out with a light position and strict stop-loss and take-profit settings [3]. - Conservative low-long strategy: The recommended position-building range is 9550 - 9580, the stop-loss range is 9450 - 9460, the first target range is 9800 - 9820, and the second target range is 9950 - 10000 [3][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is in a state of "strong expectation, weak reality", with prices showing a range - bound oscillation. The uncertainty in Sino - US economic and trade relations and the expected tight supply of imported soybeans in the long - term support the price, while the current high - volume arrivals of imported soybeans, high crushing volume of oil mills, and increasing inventory limit the upward space [1][2][6]. - The palm oil market is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation. The slowdown in the increase of Malaysian palm oil production and strong exports support the price, but the sharp decline in crude oil prices drags down the oil market, and the market is waiting for the MPOB monthly supply - demand report [1][9][11]. - The egg market rebounds weakly and then weakens again. The approaching Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day boost the demand and egg prices, but the high inventory of laying hens, increased egg - laying rate due to temperature drop, and the release of cold - stored eggs suppress the price [1][19][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: In the first week of September, soybean meal futures prices oscillated and rose, showing a range - bound characteristic. The market is in a state of "strong expectation, weak reality", with the main 2601 contract oscillating between 3030 - 3080 [2][6]. - **Influencing Factors**: - The excellent rate of US soybeans has declined, but a high yield is still expected. The export demand is a concern, with the total sales of new US soybeans down about 29% year - on - year [3]. - The cost of imported soybeans is high. China has not purchased next - year's US soybeans but has increased imports from Brazil. The export premium of Brazilian soybeans is at a high level, supporting the price of soybean meal from the cost side [4][5]. - Oil mills maintain a high crushing volume, and the inventory of soybean meal is rising. In September, the arrival of imported soybeans is still expected to be high, and the inventory accumulation trend will continue [6]. - Technically, the main 2601 contract of soybean meal is in a range - bound state on the daily - line level, with resistance at the upper edge of the range [7]. - **Operation Strategy**: For the 2601 contract of soybean meal, pay attention to short - selling operations at the upper edge of the range, with the target range of 3075 - 3085, the defense reference range of 3100 - 3120, the first target of 3050 - 3060, and the second target of 3030 - 3040 [8]. 3.2 Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: In the first week of September, palm oil futures prices oscillated and rose. The price was boosted by strong export demand for Malaysian palm oil and a slowdown in production growth, but the sharp decline in crude oil prices limited the increase. The market is waiting for the MPOB supply - demand report [9][11]. - **Influencing Factors**: - In August, the production data of Malaysian palm oil was inconsistent, but the export was strong, which may limit the increase in inventory at the end of August [12]. - India's palm oil imports in August increased sharply to 99.3 tons, a 16% month - on - month increase, supporting the Malaysian palm oil futures price [13]. - The palm oil producing areas in Malaysia are affected by diseases, and Indonesia has taken measures against illegal palm plantations, which support the palm oil market [14][15]. - The domestic palm oil inventory has increased, and the demand is mainly for essential needs. Although the consumption has increased due to the approaching school opening and festivals, the demand is still limited by the inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil [16]. - Technically, the main 2601 contract of palm oil oscillates around the short - term moving average, runs far above the medium - term moving average, and the MACD is above the zero - axis, with the green column continuing [17]. - **Operation Strategy**: For the 2601 contract of palm oil, pay attention to long - buying operations at low prices, with the target range of 9380 - 9400, the defense reference range of 9330 - 9350, the first target of 9450 - 9480, and the second target of 9500 - 9520 [18]. 3.3 Eggs - **Market Situation**: In the first week of September, egg futures prices oscillated and rebounded, but the rebound space was limited, and the prices then fell back. The market is expected to continue to be weak and may test the previous low again [19][24]. - **Influencing Factors**: - The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, with 13.64 billion laying hens in August, and the new - laying pressure is large. The egg - laying rate has increased with the temperature drop, increasing the supply [19][21]. - The enthusiasm for culling old hens remains high, and the number of old hens sold has reached a two - and - a - half - month high, but the overall industry capacity reduction is not obvious [20][21]. - The seasonal demand has boosted the egg price, and the inventory in the production and circulation links has decreased [21]. - The continuous release of cold - stored eggs increases the supply pressure, suppressing the rebound space of egg prices [22]. - The demand in the peak season has improved, but the sustainability is insufficient due to the high supply pressure [23][24]. - Technically, the main 2511 contract of eggs has broken through the moving - average system, the rebound is blocked, and the MACD runs far below the zero - axis, showing a weak technical pattern [25]. - **Operation Strategy**: For the 2511 contract of eggs, pay attention to short - selling operations, with the target range of 3020 - 3036, the defense reference range of 3076 - 3100, the first target of 2980 - 2990, and the second target of 2950 - 2960 [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - In September, the US non - farm payroll data was far lower than market expectations, leading to a weaker US dollar, a decline in US stocks, an increase in economic recession expectations, and pressure on industrial product prices. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory has slightly increased since early August and remains at a relatively high level in the long - term. Affected by supply - side news in recent years, the price has remained high. With no obvious supply - side news recently, there is an expectation of short - term volatile decline. The strategy is to focus on high - level volatile short - selling operations for the Shanghai tin 2510 contract [1] Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - **Inventory**: The LME tin inventory rose from a low of 1630 tons on August 18 to 2225 tons on September 3, still at a relatively low level. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased slightly from 7215 tons on September 1 to 7397 tons on September 5 and remains at a medium - high level in the long - term [1][2] - **Demand**: From February to July 2025, the apparent demand was at a relatively high level compared to the same period, especially in July when the data was higher than historical levels, showing an off - season non - off - season state. However, the spot - end price was not particularly strong, maintaining a high - level volatile rhythm [4] - **Other Factors**: A demonstration took place in Indonesia at the end of August, but the official statement said it did not affect the mining area's production and operation. The price soared on August 29 but quickly fell back on September 1, returning to a volatile pattern. The impact of the unrest in Indonesia on the price has subsided [6] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai tin 2510 contract price oscillated in the range of 271500 - 274500 for many days and then broke below this range on Friday night, with a weakening expectation. With no obvious positive fundamental support, the probability of further price decline increases, and attention should be paid to the volatile downward trend [7]

日度技术追踪：原油日线级别中期下跌结构，小时级别短期下跌 结构。今日增仓新低后减仓反弹，小时级别下跌确立后寻逢高空机会， 上方短期压力关注 489 一线（11 合约）。策略上 15 分钟空单止损后 等待小时级别不过压力反包试空信号出现。 图 1.1：原油 2510 日线图 OPEC+启动第二阶段复产计划， 能化仍偏弱对待 | 品种 | 中期结构 | 短期结构 | 小时周期策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 偏空 | 偏空 15 | 分钟空单止损后等待小时 | | | | | 级别试空机会 | | EB | 偏空 | 震荡 | 剩余空单持有 | | PX | 震荡 | 偏空 | 部分止盈，剩余空单持有 | | PTA | 震荡 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | PP | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | 塑料 | 震荡 | 偏多 | 15 分钟空单持有 | | 甲醇 | 偏空 | 偏空 | 剩余空单持有 | | EG | 震荡 | 偏空 | 15 分钟空单持有 | | 橡胶 | 震荡 | 偏多 | 观望 | | PVC | 偏空 | 偏空 | 空单持有 | | BR 橡 ...