Carbonate Lithium Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of carbonate lithium continued to decline, with the main contract dropping 4.40% from last Friday's closing price to 7,426 yuan/ton. The market was bearish at the beginning of the week but rebounded later. Without new drivers, it's expected to remain weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to whether the remaining 7 lithium mines in Yichun with unexpired mining licenses will stop production after September 30 [2]. Strategy Recommendations - The 2511 contract of carbonate lithium is expected to remain weak and volatile. It is recommended to participate with a light position and manage risks [3]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - The weekly production of carbonate lithium increased by 389 tons to 19,419 tons, a 2% week-on-week increase. After some domestic lithium mines and salt lakes stopped production, the overall supply did not decrease due to increased imports and processing of spodumene and new domestic projects. The key is the production status of the 7 mines in Yichun after September 30 [4]. Demand - In the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, downstream enterprises' production plans are expected to increase. From August 1 - 31, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.079 million, a 5% year-on-year and 9% month-on-month increase. The demand for energy storage batteries is also rising [5][6]. Inventory - Carbonate lithium continued to reduce inventory in August. The inventory of domestic lithium salt factories was about 30,280 tons, a 12.81% month-on-month and 14.94% year-on-year decrease [7]. Technical Analysis - The Band Winner indicator shows a weak trend. With no significant changes in fundamentals and a balanced supply - demand increase and inventory reduction, it's expected to remain weak and volatile [8]. Polysilicon Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon futures rose sharply on Friday, hitting a 9% daily limit and reaching a new high of 56,735 yuan/ton, a 15.06% weekly increase. With new policies promoting the photovoltaic industry, the polysilicon market is likely to be strong and volatile [12]. Strategy Recommendations - The 2511 contract of polysilicon is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to participate with a light position and manage risks [13]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - The weekly production of polysilicon is increasing. The output in August exceeded 130,000 tons. There are expectations of production and sales restrictions in September, but the implementation is uncertain, and future growth is expected to be limited [14]. Demand - In September, the production plan of domestic silicon wafers was raised for the first time. After the price increase, most silicon wafer enterprises increased their operating rates. The output of battery cells and photovoltaic modules in August also increased, and the September production plans are expected to continue rising [15][16][17]. Technical Analysis - The Band Winner indicator shows a strong trend. Although the polysilicon market has fundamental pressure, with policy support, the market is likely to be strong and volatile due to significant news - related fluctuations [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, etc. It provides logical analysis and technical tracking for each product, and gives corresponding trading strategies based on the fundamentals and technical analysis. Overall, most products show a bearish or weak fundamental situation, with some products having short - term fluctuations and trading opportunities [1][2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Short - term long and short are deadlocked, with contradictions brewing. After the peak season, demand decline and OPEC+ production increase bring supply pressure. The domestic seasonal demand slowdown makes SC crude oil weaker than the external market. The medium - term fundamental driver is bearish [1][2]. - **Technical Tracking**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. After today's rebound, the hourly - level structure is unclear, and the 15 - minute small - cycle turns long. Support at 488 on the 15 - minute level [2]. - **Strategy**: Take profit at the 15 - minute level and look for opportunities to re - enter after the price turns down again [2]. (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The expectation of long - side anti - involution disappears, high - level inventory accumulates rapidly, and the pattern of high production under high profit is hard to change. There is new device commissioning pressure in September - October. The medium - term fundamental is bearish [5]. - **Technical Tracking**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, it increased positions and hit a new low with a long negative line, increasing positions by nearly 5%. The short - term pressure on the hourly cycle is at 7025 [5]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: There is no sign of supply increase, import is lower year - on - year, and the short - side lacks logical support in the short term. The long - side also has no upward drive due to high inventory and concerns about tire inventory [8]. - **Technical Tracking**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. The 15 - minute pressure is at 16000 [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the 15 - minute cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 16000 [8]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamental of synthetic rubber is neutral, with no obvious short - term contradiction. In the medium term, pay attention to the suppression of tire enterprise inventory on production and the supply pressure of butadiene [12]. - **Technical Tracking**: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. After a 50% increase in positions last week, it has not reduced positions or formed a short - term structure. The 15 - minute is in a short - term downward structure [13][15]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the 15 - minute cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 11920 [15]. (5) PX - **Logic**: Since last week, PX supply has increased, downstream PTA start - up has declined, and inventory reduction has slowed down. The short - term fundamental has weakened, and more attention should be paid to the cost - side influence of crude oil [18]. - **Technical Tracking**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, the intraday oscillation center dropped, and the decline has not accelerated. The short - term pressure is at 6900 [18]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 6900 [18]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: Due to some device overhauls, short - term supply has declined, downstream demand has not recovered, and it lacks self - driving force. More attention should be paid to the cost - side influence of crude oil [23]. - **Technical Tracking**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, the intraday oscillation center dropped. The short - term pressure is at 4800, and there is a short - selling opportunity if there is a reverse - wrapping signal on Friday night or today's morning session [23]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 4800 [23]. (7) PP - **Logic**: The restart of previously overhauled devices and new capacity commissioning increase supply pressure, while demand improvement is limited. The fundamental is weak [25]. - **Technical Tracking**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, the intraday oscillation center moved down, hitting a new low since July. The short - term decline may accelerate. The hourly - level short - term pressure is at 7090, and the 15 - minute short - cycle pressure is at 6990 [25]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [25]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol production has decreased slightly month - on - month but remains at a historical high year - on - year. Overseas methanol also maintains high start - up. The port inventory has been accumulating significantly and reached a 5 - year high. The short - term driver is bearish [28]. - **Technical Tracking**: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the short - term is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated and failed to break through the short - term pressure at 2400 [28]. - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle [28]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: Supply remains high, real - estate demand is weak, and inventory continues to accumulate. Both the current situation and the expectation of the fundamental are bearish [31]. - **Technical Tracking**: The daily - level is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, the decline continued, and the short - term pressure is at 4965 [31]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [31]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The port inventory has decreased month - on - month, making its fundamental stronger than other energy and chemical products. But with the increase in domestic start - up, it is expected to enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. The short - term reality is strong, and the medium - term expectation is bearish [35]. - **Technical Tracking**: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. Today, it increased positions and volume with a long negative line, and the decline may accelerate. The 15 - minute pressure is at 4375 [35]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the end signal of the rebound to try short - selling [35]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The improvement of PE demand in the peak season is slow, and the fundamental driving force is general [37]. - **Technical Tracking**: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated. The short - term pressure is at 7365, and the 15 - minute small - cycle pressure is at 7305. There was a standard short - selling signal last night on the 15 - minute cycle [37]. - **Strategy**: There is no entry signal in the hourly cycle, and there is a short - selling opportunity on the 15 - minute cycle [37]. (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The disappearance of the anti - involution expectation and the approaching of the 09 delivery make soda ash return to the downward drive brought by high production, high supply, and high inventory. The real - estate downturn affects glass demand, and the supply pressure increases after the price is driven up by speculation. The fundamental is bearish [40]. - **Technical Tracking**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. Today, it oscillated, and the downward structure remained unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 1320 [40]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions in the hourly cycle [40]. (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The increase in chlor - alkali enterprise overhauls has led to a decline in start - up month - on - month, but it is still at a high level year - on - year. The speculation on transportation restrictions during the September 3 parade is coming to an end. The short - term downward drive is weakening, but the medium - term still faces high - supply pressure [43]. - **Technical Tracking**: The hourly - level is regarded as oscillating. Today, it had a long negative line with decreasing positions and volume, and the long - side main force left the market. The 15 - minute cycle turned down, and there is a short - selling opportunity at the end of the session [43]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the hourly cycle, and there is a short - selling signal at the end of the 15 - minute cycle with a stop - loss reference of 2690 [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate main contract has experienced significant fluctuations due to frequent disturbances on the supply side and needs time for digestion and consolidation in the short term. If the supply - side disturbance expectations remain unchanged, the supply - demand gap is expected to widen in September, and prices may rise irrationally. Attention should be paid to whether the other 7 mining enterprises in Yichun with unexpired mining licenses will stop production after September 30 [4]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate may weaken next week, and investors should wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory 1. August Market Review - In August, the lithium carbonate main contract first rose and then fell, with the futures price breaking through 90,000 yuan/ton at its highest. Supply - side news had many disturbances, but the actual impact on the fundamentals was small, and price fluctuations were mainly due to futures market capital games [5]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Supply - In August, despite supply - side disturbances, the monthly output of lithium carbonate reached a new high due to the increase in capacity utilization and hedging by external - purchasing enterprises. As of August 29, the weekly output decreased to 19,000 tons, with different trends in production from different sources. The import volume has declined for three consecutive months but is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the potential production halt of 7 mining enterprises in Yichun after September 30 [6][7]. Demand - In August, the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to be 311,400 tons, a 7% month - on - month increase, and the production of ternary cathode materials is expected to increase by about 3% to 70,800 tons. In the power market in July, new energy vehicle production and sales showed seasonal slowdown, and the power battery loading volume decreased. In the energy storage market, demand orders are good, with saturated production schedules in September and October, and high - price transactions for forward orders. The industry's anti - low - price initiative is expected to improve profitability [8][9]. Inventory - As of the week of August 29, domestic inventory decreased slightly, with social inventory still exceeding 140,000 tons. Inventory is flowing from processing plants to downstream sectors, and warehouse receipts are rising after centralized cancellations [10]. 3. Technical Analysis - The 2 - hour cycle Band Winner indicator of the lithium carbonate 2511 contract shows a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, indicating that the contract may weaken in the short term. The 2 - hour cycle long - short dividing water level overnight is 80,960 yuan/ton [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a weak outlook for the energy and chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoint - The energy and chemical market lacks substantial positive factors, with the medium - term downward drive for crude oil due to the approaching peak - season demand inflection point and OPEC+ over - production remaining clear. Different products in the industry have varying fundamentals and technical trends, with most having a bearish or cautious outlook [2][3] Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: Short - term macro sentiment provides some support, but there is no real positive news. The medium - term downward drive is clear due to demand and supply factors. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term/downward structure, hourly - level short - term upward structure. Intraday oscillation, with short - term pressure at 487. - Strategy: Hold overnight 15 - minute level short positions, with a stop - profit reference at 487 [2][3] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: Fundamentals have not improved significantly. High production and inventory, and new device commissioning pressure in September - October will keep supply high. - Technicals: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. Intraday oscillation, with short - term pressure at 7285. - Strategy: Hold hourly - cycle short positions [6] Rubber - Logic: Southeast Asian rainy - season production has not increased significantly, imports have slowed, and domestic natural rubber inventory is decreasing but still at a historical high. Downstream tire demand remains stable. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term downward, hourly - level short - term downward structure. Look for short - selling signals after a rebound fails to break through the 15,950 pressure on the 15 - minute cycle. - Strategy: Look for short - selling signals on the 15 - minute cycle [9] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: Cost - end butadiene supply is abundant, with port inventory rebounding. However, downstream tire demand is stable, and short - term sentiment is strong due to capacity - reduction speculation. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term oscillation/downward structure, hourly - level short - term oscillation structure. After significant position - increasing this week, the hourly - level fluctuation has increased. The 15 - minute cycle has turned bullish again, with support at 11,900. - Strategy: Stop loss on yesterday's 15 - minute short positions and look for new entry opportunities after a new downward trend [13] PX - Logic: PX profit has recovered, and plant operation will increase after the maintenance peak. Demand from the polyester industry is rising with the peak season approaching, resulting in a short - term improvement in fundamentals. - Technicals: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. After breaking through the short - term support at 6915 today, it has turned bearish on the hourly level. - Strategy: Look for short - selling signals after a rebound fails to break through the pressure on the hourly cycle [16][19] PTA - Logic: PTA fundamentals have improved recently, with supply pressure decreasing and downstream demand increasing. However, the medium - term excess expectation of crude oil and short - term anti - involution sentiment are concerns. - Technicals: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. Today, it has declined with increased positions, continuing the downward trend. Short - term pressure is at 4840. - Strategy: Look for short - selling signals after a rebound fails to break through the pressure on the hourly cycle [22] PP - Logic: New capacity is being put into operation, and downstream demand is weak, but short - term market sentiment in the energy and chemical sector is bullish. - Technicals: Hourly - level short - term downward structure. Intraday oscillation, with a short - term downward trend on the 15 - minute cycle. - Strategy: Hold hourly - cycle short positions [24] Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply and demand are both strong, but the rapid increase in port inventory due to Middle - East shipments is putting pressure on the market. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term downward/oscillation, short - term downward structure. Intraday oscillation without changing the downward trend. Short - term pressure is at 2400. - Strategy: Continue to hold remaining hourly - cycle short positions [27] PVC - Logic: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing, resulting in a bearish fundamental outlook. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term upward structure, hourly - level short - term downward structure. Intraday oscillation without changing the downward structure. Short - term pressure is at 5060. - Strategy: Hold hourly - cycle short positions [31] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Polyester demand is rising, domestic operation has declined, and port inventory is low, making its fundamentals relatively strong compared to other energy and chemical products. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term oscillation/downward structure, hourly - level upward structure. Intraday oscillation without breaking through the level, and the short - term trend has not reversed. Short - term support is at 4455. - Strategy: Observe on the hourly level [32] Plastic - Logic: PE operation has declined, and downstream demand is weak. However, market sentiment is bullish due to energy and chemical sector sentiment and South Korean capacity - reduction speculation. - Technicals: Daily - level medium - term oscillation/downward structure, hourly - level downward structure. Intraday oscillation continuing the downward trend. Short - term pressure is at 7415. - Strategy: Look for short - selling signals after a rebound fails to break through the pressure on the hourly cycle [35] Soda Ash - Logic: Supply remains high, and demand from the glass industry, especially speculative demand, is weak. Inventory pressure is large, and the fundamental outlook is bearish. - Technicals: Hourly - level downward structure. Intraday oscillation without changing the downward structure. Short - term pressure is at 1350. - Strategy: Hold short positions [39] Caustic Soda - Logic: On one hand, anti - involution sentiment and potential transportation restrictions during the 9.3 parade may lead to a reduction in production. On the other hand, its fundamentals have strengthened recently, but the short - term upward potential is limited due to high supply. - Technicals: Hourly - level upward structure. Intraday oscillation, and the upward trend has not reversed. Short - term support is at 2670. - Strategy: Observe on the hourly cycle [40][41]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The decline of crude oil has temporarily paused due to Powell's dovish stance and a significant drawdown in EIA inventories. However, there is no substantial positive news in the crude oil market, and the medium - term downward pressure driven by the approaching peak - season demand inflection point and OPEC+ over - production remains clear. [1][2] 3. Summary by Commodity (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: The unexpected significant decline in EIA weekly inventories and Powell's dovish stance have led to a short - term halt in the decline of crude oil. The medium - term and short - term structures are both bearish. [1] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday performance on the day was volatile, with the short - term pressure above the hourly - level still referring to the 494 line. [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle. [1][2] (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The fundamentals of styrene have not improved significantly. Although non - integrated plants are still at a loss, the weekly production of styrene has reached a new high both year - on - year and month - on - month under the high profits of integrated plants. The supply growth is faster than the demand growth this year, resulting in a historically high inventory. In the future, from September to October, it will face the pressure of new plant commissioning, and the high - supply pressure will continue. [6] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It rose and then fell on the day, and the 15 - minute small cycle changed from rising to falling again. There are also signs of breaking the upward trend at the hourly - level. Temporarily focus on the 7380 line as the pressure on the 15 - minute small cycle. [6] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle, and look for short - selling signals on the intraday when the price is below the 15 - minute pressure. [6] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The production in the Southeast Asian rainy season has not increased significantly, and imports have slowed down. The domestic natural rubber inventory has started to decline, but it is still at a historically high level year - on - year. The downstream tire demand has not weakened, and the short - term fundamentals of rubber have improved. [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It increased in volume on the day and tested the short - term pressure at the 15950 line again, but failed to break through effectively. [9] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with the stop - loss reference at the 15950 line. [9] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: On the cost side, a large amount of butadiene has arrived at the port, and the previously low port inventory has rebounded rapidly. Coupled with the commissioning of new plants, the fundamentals of butadiene are still bearish. However, the downstream tire demand has not weakened, and combined with the speculation of capacity reduction in the energy and chemical sector and the elimination of South Korean plant capacity last week, the short - term sentiment is strong. [13] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It increased in volume and position on the day and stood above the short - term pressure, with the short - term support below at the 11600 line. First, focus on the 11830 support on the 15 - minute upward structure. [13] - **Strategy**: Stop the loss of short positions on the hourly cycle. [13] (5) PX - **Logic**: The profit of PX has recovered, and the operation rate will gradually increase after the peak of plant maintenance. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester has also increased with the arrival of the peak season. Both supply and demand are booming, and the short - term fundamentals have improved. [17] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It was oscillating on the day, with a bullish short - term structure. Focus on the 6915 line as the short - term support. [17] - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly cycle. [17] (6) PTA - **Logic**: The fundamentals of PTA have been continuously improving recently. On the supply side, due to the increase in unexpected maintenance, the operation rate has declined month - on - month, and the supply pressure is low. The downstream terminals are gradually entering the peak season, and the operation rate has rebounded, with a strong future expectation. The previous inventory accumulation pattern has turned into inventory reduction, and the short - term supply - demand is strong. However, the medium - term oversupply expectation of crude oil on the cost side still exists, and combined with the short - term anti - involution sentiment disturbance, it is recommended to focus on short - term long - position bands, and be cautious with trend positions. [21] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It was oscillating on the day, with a bullish short - term structure. Focus on the 4825 line as the short - term support. [21] - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly cycle. [21] (7) PP - **Logic**: With the commissioning of new capacity and weak downstream demand, the fundamentals are bearish. However, the short - term market sentiment was bullish last week due to the positive sentiment in the energy and chemical sector. [23] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It was oscillating on the day, with a bullish 15 - minute short - cycle structure, and the hourly - level pressure is far away. [23] - **Strategy**: Partially stop the profit of short positions on the hourly cycle, and re - enter short positions after the 15 - minute cycle turns bearish again. [23] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The domestic supply and demand are both booming, with high operation rate and high production of methanol coexisting with high operation rate of downstream industries. However, the ships from the Middle East have resumed shipping and arrived at the port, and the expected arrival volume in August is still expected to increase significantly. The port inventory, which has rapidly accumulated to a historical high recently, still exerts great pressure on the market. [26] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. It was oscillating on the day without changing the downward structure. Focus on the 2455 line as the short - term pressure above. [26] - **Strategy**: Continue to hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle. [26] (9) PVC - **Logic**: The supply remains at a high level, the demand shows no improvement, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The fundamental driving force is still bearish. [30] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It was oscillating on the day without changing the downward structure. The short - term pressure above is at the 5060 line. [30] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle. [30] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester has rebounded, and the domestic operation rate has declined month - on - month. Coupled with the low arrival volume of ethylene glycol recently, the low port inventory makes its fundamentals stronger than other energy and chemical products. [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows an upward structure. It increased in volume and position on the day, with a bullish short - term structure. Focus on the 4455 line as the short - term support below. [31] - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly level. [31] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The operation rate of PE has declined, but the downstream demand shows no improvement, and the downstream maintains just - in - time inventory replenishment. The fundamental driving force is average. However, the market sentiment was bullish last week due to the positive sentiment in the energy and chemical sector and the speculation of South Korean plant capacity reduction. [34] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level downward structure is being tested. It was oscillating and strengthening slightly on the day, testing the previous high pressure. [34] - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly cycle. [34] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The supply remains at a high level, and on the demand side, except for the rigid demand of glass, the speculative demand has weakened. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased again, and the heavy soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has no substantial impact on the supply of soda ash. The fundamental driving force is still downward. [38] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. It rose and then fell on the day while oscillating, without changing the downward structure. The short - term pressure on the 01 contract is far away. Temporarily look at the 1320 small support on the 15 - minute short - cycle upward structure. [38] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short positions. [38] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: On the one hand, the fundamentals of caustic soda are affected by the anti - involution sentiment and the possible restriction of chlorine transportation due to the 9.3 military parade. The characteristics of difficult storage and low storage capacity of hazardous chemicals mean that once the outbound circulation is restricted, the enterprise operation rate and production are expected to decline rapidly. On the other hand, the fundamentals of caustic soda itself have also strengthened recently. However, the short - term bullish expectation has weakened after the 9.3 military parade, and the historically high supply still exerts some pressure, with limited upward space. [40] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. It was oscillating on the day, with a bullish hourly - level structure. Focus on the 2670 line as the short - term support below. [42] - **Strategy**: Observe on the hourly cycle. [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton price is rising due to the continuous reduction of commercial inventory, the approaching peak consumption season, and the improvement of spinning mill orders. The corn price is falling significantly because of sufficient supply, including continuous auctions of imported corn, the listing of spring corn in some areas, and the strong expectation of a new - corn harvest. The egg price is weak with high chicken inventory and poor demand. The soybean meal price rebounds due to the strong external market. Other products such as palm oil, soybean oil, etc., also show different trends based on their respective supply - demand and market factors [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Cotton prices are rising as commercial inventories are being depleted, and the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak is approaching, with improved orders for spinning mills. Corn prices are dropping sharply because of continuous auctions of imported corn, the listing of spring corn in some areas, wheat's continuous substitution for feed use, and a strong expectation of a new - corn harvest. Egg prices remain weak due to high chicken inventory and unmet peak - season demand [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton opened and closed higher, reaching a two - week high. The continuous decline of commercial inventory, the approaching consumption peak, and increased orders from European and American countries for Christmas have led to an increase in the spinning mill's operating rate and improved willingness to replenish cotton. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to close short positions and hold light long positions, with support at 14000 and resistance at 14200 [2]. 3.2.2 Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn closed significantly lower, with sufficient supply. Continuous auctions of imported corn, the listing of spring corn, wheat substitution, and weak downstream demand have pressured the price. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 2140 and resistance at 2167 [3]. 3.2.3 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal rebounded after two days of adjustment, boosted by the strong external market. Strong US soybean export data and the rise of US soybean oil have driven up the price. Although the domestic de - stocking period has not arrived, market transactions have improved. Technically, the trend is volatile. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 3096 and resistance at 3134 [5]. 3.2.4 Egg - The main 2510 contract of eggs failed to rebound and continued to decline, pressured by high supply. High chicken inventory, increased production - link inventory days, and the release of cold - storage eggs have led to large supply pressure and weak demand. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 3000 and resistance at 3040 [7]. 3.2.5 Pig - The main 2511 contract of pigs failed to rebound and closed lower again, due to sufficient supply. Although the state's frozen - pork purchase has boosted market sentiment, the supply - demand situation remains unchanged. Technically, it is weak. The strategy is to hold light short positions, with support at 13800 and resistance at 14000 [9]. 3.2.6 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil first rose and then fell, with high - level fluctuations. The increase in Malaysian palm oil exports has promoted the price increase, but high prices may limit future demand. Domestically, the import cost has risen, and it maintains rigid demand. Technically, it is still in a strong position. The strategy is for short - term trading, with support at 9516 and resistance at 9736 [11]. 3.2.7 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil continued to rise in a volatile manner, strengthened by the strong US soybean oil market. Although domestic supply is relatively loose, the approaching consumption peak supports the price. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to close short positions and engage in short - term trading, with support at 8390 and resistance at 8500 [13]. 3.2.8 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates rebounded and continued to run strongly. The new - jujube production is expected to decline, but the inventory at sample points is higher than last year. The arrival volume in the sales area has decreased recently. Technically, it is in an uptrend. The strategy is to buy on dips, with support at 11245 and resistance at 11595 [15]. 3.2.9 Sugar - The main 2601 contract of sugar closed higher, continuing the upward trend. The domestic market trading atmosphere has warmed up, and the de - stocking process in the producing area has accelerated. Although the sugar import volume has increased, the market has digested the expectation. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is to continue holding light long positions, with support at 5664 and resistance at 5703 [17]. 3.2.10 Apple - The main 2510 contract of apples closed higher in a volatile manner. The quality of early - maturing apples is poor, and the inventory is low, which supports the price. The export volume is gradually recovering. Technically, it is strong. The strategy is for short - term long trading, with support at 8050 and resistance at 8214 [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For styrene, the fundamental situation is characterized by high profits, high production, and high inventory. There will be pressure from the concentrated commissioning of new plants in September - October. The short - term is bullish with the market, and in the medium - term, look for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment fades [1]. - PTA's fundamentals have recently improved. Supply pressure has decreased and downstream demand has increased, resulting in a shift from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. However, due to the medium - term oversupply expectation of crude oil and short - term sentiment disturbances, it is recommended to focus on short - term long - position band operations [2]. - Caustic soda has shown a strong performance. It is affected by anti - involution sentiment and potential production reduction due to the 9.3 military parade. Although its fundamentals have strengthened, the high supply still exerts pressure, and the upside space may be limited. It is not recommended to chase long positions, but rather consider short - term long opportunities based on 15 - minute fluctuations [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Logical Analysis Styrene - After reaching a two - month low this week, styrene showed a slight volume - up move. The rebound occurred after the rumor of anti - involution in the chemical industry. The supply growth is faster than the demand growth, and the inventory remains at a historical high. The fundamental driving force is downward, but it is bullish in the short - term with the market [1]. PTA - PTA showed a strong performance this week. After a low - level shock, it had a volume - up move. Its fundamentals have improved, with supply pressure decreasing and downstream demand entering the peak season. However, due to the medium - term oversupply expectation of crude oil, short - term long - position band operations are recommended [2]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda was strong this week, affected by anti - involution sentiment and potential production reduction due to the 9.3 military parade. Although its fundamentals have strengthened, the high supply still exerts pressure, and the upside space may be limited [4]. 2. Weekly Fundamentals Styrene - As of the week of August 22, the capacity utilization rate was 78.53%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.35% and a year - on - year increase of 9.77%. The weekly production was 37.08 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 23.8%. The non - integrated device profit was - 238.13 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 91 yuan/ton. The integrated device profit was 564.48 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 44 yuan/ton. The national inventory was 20.65 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 29% [5]. PTA - As of the week of August 22, the PTA operation rate was 72.9%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.5%. The polymerization operation rate was 90%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.6%. As of August 15, the overall social inventory of PTA was 225 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.3 tons. The weekly spot processing fee increased by 51 yuan to 249 yuan/ton [6][7]. Caustic Soda - As of the week of August 22, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 39.64 tons (wet tons), with a week - on - week decrease of 9.46% and a year - on - year increase of 16.67%. The capacity utilization ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 22.38%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.58%. The chlor - alkali gross profit was 349 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 21% and a year - on - year increase of 164% [8]. 3. Technical Analysis - The hourly cycle of the styrene 2510 contract shows an upward structure, with a short - term support level at 7330 [9]. - The hourly cycle of the PTA2601 contract shows an upward structure, with a short - term support level at 4840 [9]. - The hourly cycle of the caustic soda 2601 contract shows an upward structure, with a short - term support level at 2670 [9]. 4. Strategies - For the styrene 2510 contract, look for short - selling opportunities after breaking the support level on the hourly level, and look for short - term long opportunities based on the previous low support on the 15 - minute cycle [15]. - For the PTA2601 contract, look for short - term long opportunities based on the previous low support on the 15 - minute cycle [16]. - For the caustic soda 2601 contract, look for short - term long opportunities based on the previous low support on the 15 - minute cycle [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The market has been affected by short - term "small essay" disturbances, but most varieties in the energy and chemical sector are still viewed as weak. The short - term geopolitical disturbances in the crude oil market have weakened, and it has returned to the fundamental logic. Other varieties are also facing different supply - demand pressures and inventory situations, which affect their price trends [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - **Logic**: After the Trump - Russia Alaska meeting, the short - term geopolitical disturbances in the Russia - Ukraine situation have weakened. The crude oil market has returned to the fundamental logic. With the approaching seasonal demand inflection point and the accelerating production increase of OPEC+, the pressure of crude oil surplus will gradually materialize [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of crude oil shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend is oscillating, and the center of gravity is slowly moving down. The short - term pressure above the hourly - level is around 490. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [2]. 2. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The supply side has a high operating rate of 78.18% this week, and the planned production facilities in August have been put into operation. Attention should be paid to the new production capacity in September. Although the downstream demand has increased recently, the high port inventory and the pressure of new production capacity still lead to a large pressure of inventory accumulation. It is still regarded as bearish [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of benzene ethylene shows a short - term downward structure. After hitting a new low today, the market rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but it is not considered a trend reversal. The short - term pressure above is in the range of 7265 - 7290 after contract switching. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. 3. Rubber - **Logic**: During the rainy season in Southeast Asia, the raw material prices in Thailand are stable. The short - term improvement in the downstream tire operating rate provides support, and the inventory in Qingdao has decreased recently. However, the high tire inventory still suppresses the expected increase in demand, and the medium - term fundamental driving force of rubber is still downward [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of rubber shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After rising and then falling today, it tested the short - term pressure at 15950 but failed. The pressure level is still valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 15950 [9]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The high production and weak demand expectations of synthetic rubber in the medium - term have not changed. The high production of butadiene rubber and the large inventory of downstream tires, especially semi - steel tires, are difficult to solve. The supply pressure of butadiene has increased after the new device was put into operation in the third quarter. Recently, the arrival volume of butadiene has increased, and the short - term bullish factor of tight port inventory has disappeared. Coupled with the decline in the price of crude oil, the synthetic rubber is still considered bearish [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of synthetic rubber shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After rising and then falling today, it tested the short - term pressure at 11950 but failed. The pressure level is still valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14]. 5. PX - **Logic**: The supply of PX has increased slightly, the operation of PTA is stable, and the fundamentals of PX have weakened, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. However, the polyester load is expected to increase from August to September, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the movement of the cost - end crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PX shows a short - term upward structure. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, the trading volume increased. The hourly - level structure is bullish, and the short - term support is around 6730. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [17]. 6. PTA - **Logic**: There is no significant change in the supply - side operation rate, but the downstream demand is expected to improve in the peak season from August to September. Coupled with the continuous low processing fee of PTA itself, the supply - demand expectation is strong, but attention should be paid to the change of the cost - end crude oil [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PTA shows a short - term downward structure. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, the trading volume increased, but the structure is weaker than that of PX and has not turned bullish. The short - term pressure above after contract switching is in the range of 4760 - 4780. The strategy is to hold short positions cautiously in the hourly cycle [20]. 7. PP - **Logic**: The supply pressure has increased due to the new production capacity put into operation in August. Although the downstream operation rate has improved, the inventory at all links in the industrial chain has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the movement of crude oil [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of PP shows a short - term downward structure. After hitting a new low today, it rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but the downward structure has not changed. The short - term pressure above is temporarily around 7050. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [21]. 8. Methanol - **Logic**: After the Iranian devices resumed operation, a large number of shipments have arrived at ports recently. The port inventory has increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the short - term inventory accumulation speed is fast, which brings pressure. At the same time, the domestic production remains at a high level, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season, with high raw material inventory. The overall fundamentals are still bearish [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of methanol shows a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. Today, there was a positive line with a decrease in positions and an increase in trading volume, which is regarded as a rebound repair after five consecutive negative lines. The short - term pressure above is around 245 (01 contract). The strategy is to continue to hold the remaining short positions after partial profit - taking yesterday in the hourly cycle [24]. 9. PVC - **Logic**: The supply - side operation rate has continued to rise to a year - on - year high of 78.8%. The demand is difficult to improve due to the downward trend in the real estate market and the off - season. The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation is obvious, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of PVC shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The intraday trend was oscillating. After hitting a new low, it rebounded with the energy and chemical sector in the afternoon, but the trend has not reversed. The short - term pressure above is around 5060. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [28]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The relatively low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical varieties, but the expectation of inventory accumulation also limits the upward space. Attention should be paid to the start time of inventory accumulation [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of ethylene glycol shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term downward structure is being tested. After being affected by "small essay" disturbances in the afternoon today, it rose sharply with increased trading volume and stood above the short - term pressure at 4385. The short - term downward structure at the hourly - level is being tested. The strategy is to take profit and leave the short positions in the hourly cycle [30]. 11. Plastic - **Logic**: The increase in operation rate and the new production capacity have brought large supply pressure. The downstream operation rate remains at a year - on - year low, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is obvious. The supply - demand driving force is bearish [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level of plastic shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. After hitting a new low today, it rebounded in the afternoon due to "small essay" disturbances, but the downward structure has not changed. The short - term pressure above is around 7345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [32]. 12. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The supply side continues to increase production. On the demand side, in addition to the rigid demand for glass, the speculative demand has weakened. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased again, and the heavy soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has not had a substantial impact on the supply of soda ash [37]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of soda ash shows a downward structure. Today, there was a long negative line and a new low, and the decline has entered an accelerating stage. At the same time, the 01 contract has also broken through the support. The previous divergence structure of the 09 and 01 contracts has become unified. The strategy is to transfer the short positions of the 09 contract to the 01 contract and continue to hold [37]. 13. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The operation rate of alumina in the demand side remains high, and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber in non - aluminum demand has also increased and remains high. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operation rate of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamentals are still weak [39][41]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level of caustic soda shows an oscillating structure. After increasing positions and rising in the afternoon today, the 15 - minute short - cycle has turned bullish, and it shows an oscillating trend at the hourly - level. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is strong due to concerns about supply shortages after China imposed high margins on Canadian rapeseed imports. The pork market is weak as group pig enterprises increase sales and high - temperature weather suppresses demand. The soybean oil market is in adjustment with high output and rising inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Rapeseed meal is strong and is expected to remain at a high level. Pork prices are falling and may continue to decline. Soybean oil prices are in adjustment and the correction may continue [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Rapeseed Meal and Soybean Meal - The main rapeseed meal 2601 contract and soybean meal 2601 contract are both in an upward trend. High import costs and low domestic inventories support rapeseed meal prices, while uncertain Sino - US economic and trade relations and high import costs support soybean meal prices. Technically, they are strong, and the strategy is to hold light - position long positions [2]. 3.2.2 Pork - The main pork 2511 contract is in a downward trend. Supply is abundant as group pig enterprises and散户猪场 increase sales, and demand is weak due to high - temperature weather. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light - position short positions [3][5]. 3.2.3 Corn - The main corn 2511 contract first declined and then rebounded, but the decline was only narrowed. Supply is abundant due to continuous auctions and upcoming new corn, and demand is weak. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light - position short positions [6]. 3.2.4 Eggs - The main egg 2510 contract first declined and then rebounded, but the downward trend remains. High egg - laying hen inventory, continuous cold - storage egg release, and weak demand lead to a supply - pressure situation. Technically, it is weak, and the strategy is to hold light - position short positions [8]. 3.2.5 Palm Oil - The main palm oil 2601 contract is slightly adjusted but remains at a high level. Strong exports from Malaysia and concerns about future supply support prices. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold light - position long positions [10]. 3.2.6 Soybean Oil - The main soybean oil 2601 contract has a significant adjustment. High soybean imports and rising inventory lead to a decline in prices. Technically, it turns weak, and the strategy is to close long positions [12]. 3.2.7 Cotton - The main cotton 2601 contract is in a falling and oscillating state. Old - crop supply is tight, but new - crop supply is expected to increase. Downstream demand shows some improvement but is still weak overall. The strategy is short - term trading [14]. 3.2.8 Red Dates - The main red date 2601 contract first declined and then rebounded, remaining at a high level. Concerns about reduced production in Xinjiang and expected consumption recovery support prices. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold long positions [16]. 3.2.9 White Sugar - The main white sugar 2601 contract first declined and then rebounded, showing an upward trend. The domestic market atmosphere is warming up, but increasing imports bring supply pressure. Technically, it is strong, and the strategy is to hold long positions [18]. 3.2.10 Apples - The main apple 2510 contract breaks down. The increase in early - maturing apple supply and low inventory lead to price declines. Technically, it turns weak, and the strategy is to close long positions [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, etc. Most products are under downward pressure, and the report provides corresponding trading strategies based on fundamental and technical analyses [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: After the Trump - Russia meeting in Alaska, the geopolitical disturbance weakened, and the crude oil returned to the fundamental logic. With the approaching seasonal demand inflection point and the accelerating OPEC+ production increase, the crude oil surplus pressure will gradually materialize [2]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of crude oil is in a medium - term/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. The intraday is volatile, and the downward path remains unchanged. The short - term pressure above the hourly level is around 490. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [2]. 2. Styrene (EB) - Fundamental analysis: The supply side has a high weekly operating rate of 78.18%, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August and September. The demand side has a stronger demand recently, but the high port inventory and new production capacity pressure still lead to a large pressure of inventory accumulation. It is still regarded as bearish [5]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of styrene is in a short - term downward structure. The intraday is volatile, and the downward path continues. The short - term pressure above is around 7270. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. 3. Rubber - Fundamental analysis: The raw materials in Thailand remain stable during the rainy season in Southeast Asia. The short - term downstream tire operating rate has improved, and the inventory in Qingdao has decreased recently, which provides short - term positive drivers. However, the high tire inventory still suppresses the expected increase in demand, and the medium - term fundamental driver of rubber is still downward [9]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of rubber is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It failed to break through the short - term pressure of 15950 after rising and falling back. The pressure level remains valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 15950 [9]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Fundamental analysis: The high production and weak demand situation of synthetic rubber in the medium - term remains unchanged. The high production of butadiene rubber and the large inventory of downstream tires, especially semi - steel tires, are difficult to solve. After the new device is put into operation in the third quarter, the supply pressure of raw material butadiene also remains unchanged. Recently, the butadiene port inventory has returned to the average level in the past five years after rapid accumulation, and the short - term positive factor has disappeared. Coupled with the collapse of the upstream crude oil price, the synthetic rubber still maintains a bearish view [14]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It failed to break through the short - term pressure of 11950 after rising and falling back. The pressure level remains valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14]. 5. PX - Fundamental analysis: The supply of PX has increased slightly, the PTA operation is stable, the PX fundamentals have weakened, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. However, the polyester load is expected to increase from August to September, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. The movement of the cost - end crude oil still needs to be concerned [17]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of PX is in a short - term downward structure. The intraday is volatile, but the hourly line stood above the short - term pressure of 6780 during the session, and the downward structure may be tested. The strategy is to stop profit for short positions in the hourly cycle as planned [17]. 6. PTA - Fundamental analysis: The supply - side operation has no significant change, but the downstream demand is expected to improve in the peak season from August to September. Coupled with the continuous low processing fee of PTA itself, the supply - demand expectation is strong, but the change of the cost - end crude oil needs to be noted [21]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of PTA is in a short - term downward structure. After intraday oscillation, it failed to break through the pressure and fell back. The short - term pressure above still focuses on 4760. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [21]. 7. PP - Fundamental analysis: The supply pressure increases due to the new production capacity put into operation in August. The downstream operation has improved, but the inventory in each link of the industrial chain continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. The movement of crude oil also needs to be concerned [22]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of PP is in a short - term downward structure. It reached a new low with increased positions today, and the downward trend may accelerate. The short - term pressure above temporarily focuses on 7050. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [22]. 8. Methanol - Fundamental analysis: After the Iranian device resumed operation, a large number of shipments arrived at the port recently, and the port inventory has increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. The short - term inventory accumulation speed is fast, which exerts pressure. At the same time, the domestic production remains at a high level, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season, and the downstream raw material inventory is high. The overall fundamentals are still driven bearishly [25]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of methanol is in a medium - term downward/oscillatory structure, and the short - term is in a downward structure. The intraday is volatile. Specifically, it reached a new low with increased positions at night and then rebounded and repaired during the morning session. The short - term pressure above focuses on 2425 (01 contract). The strategy is to partially stop profit for short positions in the hourly cycle and continue to hold the remaining short positions [25]. 9. PVC - Fundamental analysis: The supply - side operating rate has continued to rise to a year - on - year high of 78.8%. The demand is difficult to improve due to the downward real - estate market and the off - season, and the inventory continues to accumulate, indicating a bearish fundamental driver [29]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of PVC is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It reached a new low with increased positions today, and the short - term downward trend may accelerate. The short - term pressure above has moved down to 5060 (01 contract). The strategy is to hold short positions [29]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Fundamental analysis: The low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical products, but the inventory accumulation expectation also limits the upward space. The starting time of inventory accumulation needs to be concerned [31]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of EG is in a medium - term oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It is regarded as a rebound today but failed to break through the pressure, and the short - term downward structure remains valid. The short - term pressure above is 4385. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [31]. 11. Plastic - Fundamental analysis: The supply pressure is relatively large due to the increase in operation and the new production capacity put into operation. The downstream operation remains at a year - on - year low level, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is reflected. The supply - demand driver is bearish [34]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of plastic is in a medium - term oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. The downward trend in the hourly level is confirmed after reaching a new low today. The short - term pressure above is referred to as 7345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [34]. 12. Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis: The supply side continues to increase, the speculative demand of glass on the demand side has weakened except for the rigid demand, the inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased again, and the heavy - soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has no substantial impact on the soda ash supply [39]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of soda ash is in a downward structure. After a long - negative line broke through the 15 - minute - level oscillation today, the downward trend may accelerate. The structures of the 09 and 01 contracts are still differentiated, still showing a pattern of weak 09 and strong 01. The short - term pressure level of the 09 contract is 1285. The strategy is to hold short positions in the 09 contract [39]. 13. Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis: The operation of alumina on the demand side remains at a high level, and the operation of viscose staple fiber in non - aluminum demand has also increased and remains at a high level. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operation of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are still weak [43]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of caustic soda is in an oscillatory structure. After a long - negative line today, the hourly - level upward trend may end. First, look for short - selling opportunities in the 15 - minute downward structure. The short - cycle pressure above the 15 - minute level focuses on 2615. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities when the rebound fails to break through the pressure in the 15 - minute period [43].