1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term strategy for most energy and chemical varieties is to hold short positions, but before the National Day holiday, it is recommended to gradually reduce positions and only keep a small part of the positions. If WTI breaks through the strong support of $60 during the holiday, there will be significant short - term acceleration space. The overall view on the energy and chemical sector is bearish, mainly due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and cost - end pressures [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In the context of OPEC+ increasing production and the seasonal weakening of US demand, the probability of a supply - demand surplus in crude oil in the second half of the year is high. The strategy should focus on the bearish fundamental situation in the medium term [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a rebound with a reduction in positions. The downward space needs to wait for the foreign market to confirm the breakthrough. The short - term pressure above is around 485. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [3]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly fundamentals of styrene have not improved significantly. Despite a slight decrease in the operating rate due to device maintenance, the weekly production remains high year - on - year. With high imports, inventories continue to reach record highs. The high - profit, high - production, and high - inventory situation is difficult to change, and the new device commissioning pressure in September - October is high. The fundamental drive is downward [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a rebound with a reduction in positions but did not break through the pressure. Whether the decline can accelerate depends on crude oil. The short - term pressure above is around 6935. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [8]. (3) Rubber - Logic: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Domestic inventories are declining slowly and are still at a high level year - on - year. With the decline in crude oil and synthetic rubber, there is pressure on natural rubber. The demand side is mixed, with a significant decline in the semi - steel tire operating rate but a high level in the full - steel tire operating rate. The current fundamentals are neutral [10]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is around 16000. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [12]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself. The operating rate has rebounded as the previously maintained devices have resumed operation. The main contradiction lies in the cost side of butadiene. With the concentrated arrival of ship cargoes, port inventories have increased significantly. In the medium term, the supply pressure will gradually materialize as butadiene production capacity is put into operation. The cost side is bearish [13][16]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. There was a position - reduction action before the holiday, but the large - scale position increase since the end of August still exists. The short - term pressure above is around 11730. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at 11730 [16]. (5) PX - Logic: PX has good profits and maintains a high operating rate. With more unexpected maintenance of downstream PTA, the short - term supply - demand of PX has weakened, but the contradiction is not prominent. It is mainly driven by the cost side of crude oil [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it rebounded with a reduction in positions following crude oil. The short - term pressure above is around 6655. The strategy is to stop - profit half of the 15 - minute short positions and hold the remaining half at the hourly level, with the stop - loss reference at the hourly pressure of 6655 [20]. (6) PTA - Logic: The cost side of crude oil is expected to have a supply - increase and demand - decrease surplus in the fourth quarter, which will drive down costs. PTA's own supply - demand is also expected to weaken and accumulate inventories. The demand side is weak in the peak season, and the demand will decline in the off - season from September to November. The supply side maintains a high output year - on - year after the commissioning of large - scale devices in the middle of the year. The fundamentals are pessimistic [22][24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. Today, it rebounded with a reduction in positions. The short - term pressure above is around 4620. The strategy is to stop - profit half of the short positions when the 15 - minute small - cycle breaks through the 4570 pressure and hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at 4620 [24]. (7) PP - Logic: The demand side has improved slightly in the peak season, but the improvement is limited. The supply side has increased pressure with the commissioning of new production capacity. After the high - level decline in the futures price, short - selling should be cautious. Attention should also be paid to the cost - side collapse logic caused by the decline of crude oil [26]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure is around 7000. After the stop - profit last week, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [27][29]. (8) Methanol - Logic: The situation of weak reality and strong expectation continues. Domestic production has declined slightly but is still at a high level year - on - year. With a large number of ship cargoes arriving after the resumption in Iran in August, imports have increased significantly. The comprehensive operating rate of downstream olefins has declined after the maintenance. Port inventories continue to accumulate slightly at the highest level in the same period. Although there is a reversal logic in the fourth quarter, the current 01 contract has a high premium, and the valuation is not low. There is no value in bottom - fishing on the left side. The decline since August has not ended [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the short - term shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is around 2375. After a previous stop - profit, the remaining short positions should be held cautiously, with the hourly line of 2375 as the final stop - profit position [30][32]. (9) PVC - Logic: The supply side has increasing pressure with the commissioning of new production capacity. The demand side is under pressure due to the bottom - less real estate market and the significant increase in anti - dumping duties by India. Inventories have continuously accumulated to the highest level in the same period. The pressure of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory persists [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is around 4980 (far), and the 15 - minute pressure is around 4930. The hourly - cycle is recommended to wait and see, and there is a short - selling signal at the end of the 15 - minute cycle, with the stop - loss reference at 4945 [33]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The weekly operating rates of MEG and downstream industries have little change, and the port inventories of ethylene glycol continue to decline slightly. The short - term reality is strong, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Attention should be paid to the supply pressure under the expectation of new device commissioning and the drive brought by the decline of crude oil [35]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure is around 4275. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at 4275 [35]. (11) Plastic - Logic: The weekly operating rate of PE has rebounded. New production capacity has been put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The downstream demand has rebounded slightly in the peak season, but the rebound is less than expected. The supply - demand is bearish, and the decline in the futures price in September has reflected this. Attention should be paid to the cost - side drive brought by the decline of crude oil [38]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure above is around 7205. The strategy is to close half of the positions when the 15 - minute cycle breaks through the 7140 pressure and hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level [38]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The weekly supply of soda ash has increased from a high level, and the supply side remains loose. The situation of high production and high inventory has not improved [42]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an oscillating structure. Today, it rebounded with a reduction in positions. The short - term pressure above is around 1321. The strategy is to stop - profit half of the positions when the 15 - minute cycle breaks through the 1390 pressure and hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level [42]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The supply of liquid chlorine is loose. The demand side shows a high - operating - rate pattern in alumina enterprises, but the off - alumina demand has limited rebound in the peak season. The weekly inventory of caustic soda has increased again, and the high - level pressure year - on - year continues. The short - term fundamentals have weakened compared with last week. The medium - term focus is on the improvement of demand under device maintenance and the downstream peak season [46]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The short - term pressure is difficult to find, and the 15 - minute small - cycle pressure is around 2575. After the stop - profit last week, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Report's Core View - Today, SC closed with a downward break, leading to an accelerated decline in the energy and chemical sector. Whether the downside space for crude oil can be opened depends on the synchronous confirmation from external markets. Short positions on the fundamental side of the energy and chemical sector entered the market based on technical signals in early and mid - August, and after nearly two months, most varieties have achieved significant profit margins. - Near the National Day holiday, it is subjectively recommended that those who hold existing short positions do not necessarily need to liquidate all positions but should gradually reduce their positions and only keep a partial position for the holiday. If WTI breaks through the strong support level of $60 during the National Day holiday, there will be significant short - term downside acceleration space. [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalog (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: At the time of further production increases by OPEC+ and the seasonal weakening of US demand, the likelihood of a supply - demand surplus in crude oil in the second half of the year remains high. The strategy is to not over - emphasize short - term bullish disturbances and to maintain a bearish view based on the medium - term surplus fundamentals. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of crude oil shows a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is also in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions, a gap - down opening, and a long - negative candlestick. The daily K - line closed at a new low and broke through the support level, and the hourly closing was close to the previous low. After the external market confirms the break, the market may accelerate. The short - term resistance above is at the 479 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level. [3] (2) Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: The weekly fundamentals of styrene have not improved significantly. Although there are device overhauls affecting the supply - side operating rate, the weekly production of styrene can still maintain a high level year - on - year due to the high profits of integrated devices. The demand has increased month - on - month with the arrival of the peak season for downstream industries, but under the pressure of imports, the styrene inventory has continued to reach new historical highs. The high - profit, high - production, and high - inventory pattern of styrene is difficult to change, and the pressure from the concentrated commissioning of new devices from September to October remains. The supply pressure will continue, and with the downstream inventory also at a historical high, the fundamental driving force for styrene remains downward. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions, a long - negative candlestick, and a new low. Whether the decline can accelerate depends on crude oil. The short - term resistance above is tentatively set at the 6935 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level. [5][8] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The prices of overseas raw materials have declined, weakening the cost support. The domestic inventory is depleting slowly and remains at a high level year - on - year, exerting pressure. With the decline of crude oil, there is also pressure from the substitution effect of synthetic rubber. On the demand side, the operating rate of semi - steel tires has dropped significantly, but the operating rate of all - steel tires remains high. The current fundamentals are neutral, with no major contradictions. Short - term attention should be paid to whether there are typhoon disturbances, and currently, the path of Typhoon Hikaa does not pass through Hainan, so the impact may be limited. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of rubber shows a sideways trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, there was a decrease in positions and a decline. The short - term resistance above is at the 16000 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level. [10][12] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: There are no major contradictions in the supply - demand fundamentals of synthetic rubber itself. The operating rate has recovered with the resumption of previously overhauled devices, and the high operating rate of downstream semi - steel tires under inventory pressure has been maintained. The main focus is on the cost side of butadiene. Recently, with the concentrated arrival of ship cargoes, the port inventory has increased significantly, ending the previously tight inventory pattern. In the medium term, as the production capacity of butadiene is put into operation, the supply pressure will gradually materialize. The most upstream crude oil is also preparing to materialize the surplus pressure as the demand side switches from the peak season to the off - season and OPEC+ continues to increase production. The fundamental logic for synthetic rubber is bearish on the cost side. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of synthetic rubber shows a sideways/downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, there was a decrease in positions and a small decline. There may be position - reducing actions before the holiday, but the large - scale increase in positions since the end of August still remains. The short - term resistance above is at the 11730 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at the 11730 level. [14][16] (5) PX - **Logic**: The profit of PX is favorable, and the operating rate remains high. There are more unplanned overhauls of downstream PTA, so the short - term supply - demand of PX has weakened, but the contradiction is not prominent. It is more driven by the cost side of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of PX is in a downward trend. Today, it followed crude oil to break through the previous low. The short - term resistance above is tentatively set at the 6655 level. - **Strategy**: According to the plan in Friday's evening report, there was an opportunity to enter the market at 15 - minute intervals after the end of the rebound yesterday morning. Hold short positions and lower the stop - profit to the 6570 level. [20] (6) PTA - **Logic**: The cost - side of crude oil is expected to have a supply - increase and demand - decrease surplus pressure in the fourth quarter, which will drive down the cost. PTA itself also has an expectation of supply - demand weakening and inventory accumulation. On the demand side, the peak season was not prosperous in the early stage, and the load recovery of downstream industries was limited. As it enters the off - season from September to November, the demand will continue to decline. On the supply side, after the commissioning of large - scale devices in the middle of the year, although the processing fee has declined, the output is still at a high level year - on - year. In the future, there will be significant inventory accumulation pressure under high supply and weak demand. Along with the downward drive from the cost side of crude oil, the fundamentals of PTA are still relatively pessimistic. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of PTA shows a sideways trend. Today, there was an increase in positions and a new low, continuing the downward path. The short - term resistance above is at the 4620 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at the 4620 level. The 4570 level at 15 - minute intervals can be used as a partial stop - profit reference. [22][24] (7) PP - **Logic**: The demand has improved month - on - month during the peak season, but the improvement is limited. On the supply side, the second line of Ningbo Daxie has been put into operation at the end of August, and the first line has also been commissioned. The supply pressure has further increased with the increase in production capacity. The short - term supply pressure still exists, but after the high - level decline in the futures price, one should be cautious about shorting. In addition, attention should be paid to the cost - collapse logic due to the decline of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is in a downward trend. Today, there was a small decline during the day, and the closing price reached a new low. The short - term resistance is at the 7000 level. - **Strategy**: After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so stay on the sidelines. [25][27] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: The pattern of weak current situation and strong future expectation continues. The domestic production decreased last week but is still at a high level year - on - year. In addition, after the resumption of production in Iran in August, a large number of ship cargoes have recently arrived at ports, leading to a significant increase in imports. After the overhaul of downstream olefins is completed, the comprehensive operating rate has declined, but the port inventory has continued to increase slightly and is at the highest level in the same period in history. The huge inventory continues to exert pressure on the futures price. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve with the commissioning of new downstream devices and the seasonal gas restrictions in Iran, and there is a reversal logic. However, currently, the 01 contract has a premium of 100 yuan (nearly 5%) over the spot price, reaching the highest level in the past five years. The futures price has already partially reflected the expectation of future supply - demand improvement, and the current valuation of the 01 contract is not low, lacking the value of bottom - fishing on the left side. One should wait to go long, at least until seeing a decline in Iranian shipments and an improvement in downstream demand. Currently, the decline since August has not ended under the pressure of the huge inventory and the pressure on MTO demand due to the decline of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term and short - term structures of methanol are in a downward trend. Today, it fluctuated during the day, but the hourly closing price reached a new low. The short - term resistance above has been lowered to the 2375 level. - **Strategy**: Since a partial stop - profit was taken earlier, cautiously hold the remaining short positions, and use the 2375 level on the hourly line as the final stop - profit level. [29][31] (9) PVC - **Logic**: The supply pressure continues to increase with the commissioning of new production capacity. The real estate demand has not bottomed out, and India has announced the final anti - dumping ruling on PVC, significantly increasing the tax on Chinese products, which has affected both domestic and export demand. The inventory has continued to accumulate and reached the highest level in the same period in history. The pressure of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory persists. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PVC are in a downward trend. Today, after breaking through the support level, the short - term structure returned to the downward trend. The short - term resistance above is at the 4980 level (relatively far), and the 15 - minute resistance is at the 4930 level. - **Strategy**: After taking profit last week, stay on the sidelines. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds that fail to break through the resistance at 15 - minute intervals. [33] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The weekly operating rates of MEG and its downstream industries have not changed significantly month - on - month, but the port inventory of ethylene glycol has continued to decline slightly. The short - term situation is relatively strong, and there are no major supply - demand contradictions. However, attention should be paid to the supply pressure from the expected commissioning of new devices in the future and the driving force from the decline of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of ethylene glycol shows a sideways/downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions, a decline, and a new low. The short - term resistance has been lowered to the 4275 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, with the stop - profit reference at the 4275 level. [35] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The weekly operating rate of PE has increased. In August, the second line of 450,000 tons of new production capacity in Ningbo Daxie has been put into production, and the remaining 450,000 tons are planned to start operation in mid - September. The supply pressure continues to increase with the commissioning of new production capacity. The downstream demand has increased month - on - month during the peak season, but the increase is limited, and the performance during the peak season is lower than expected. The supply - demand situation is bearish, but the decline in the futures price in September has already reflected this to some extent. Attention should be paid to the cost - driving force from the decline of crude oil. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure of plastic shows a sideways/downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions and a new low. The short - term resistance above has been lowered to the 7205 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level. The 7140 level at 15 - minute intervals can be used as a partial stop - profit level. [39] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: The weekly supply of soda ash has increased from a high level, and the supply side remains loose. The pattern of high production and high inventory has not improved. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level structure of soda ash shows a sideways trend. Today, there was an increase in positions and a decline. The short - term resistance above is at the 1321 level. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions at the hourly level, and use the 15 - minute resistance as a reference. [41] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: The supply of liquid chlorine on the supply side remains loose. On the demand side, alumina enterprises generally maintain a high - operating - rate pattern under profitable conditions, and the demand in the non - aluminum sector has increased limitedly during the peak season. The weekly inventory of caustic soda has increased again, and the pressure of the high - level inventory year - on - year continues to be reflected. The short - term fundamentals have weakened again compared with last week. In the medium term, attention should continue to be paid to the improvement in demand during device overhauls and the downstream peak season. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure of caustic soda is in a downward trend. Today, there was an increase in positions, a long - negative candlestick, and a new short - term low. It is difficult to find the short - term resistance, and tentatively, the 15 - minute small - cycle resistance is at the 2575 level. - **Strategy**: After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so stay on the sidelines. [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector is affected by various factors, with most varieties showing a downward trend. The cancellation of Argentina's agricultural product export tax has a significant negative impact on two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and oil products, increasing global supply pressure and driving prices down. Other products are also under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and harvest expectations [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Affected by Argentina's cancellation of agricultural product export tax, two - meal and oil products tumbled, and the market will be weak. Hog prices continued to fall due to oversupply [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - Affected by Argentina's tax - exemption policy, the U.S. soybean futures price dropped significantly. Domestic soybean meal output increased, inventory reached a new high, and the futures price hit a more than 4 - month low. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 2907, and the resistance is 2950 [2][3]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - Argentina's tax - exemption policy led to intensified international market competition, triggering large - scale selling and pushing down the futures price. Domestically, supply is abundant, inventory pressure is high, and the futures price hit a nearly 2 - month low. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 8000, and the resistance is 8100 [4]. 3.2.3 Palm Oil - Affected by Argentina's policy, the Chicago and Dalian bean markets' selling spread to the palm oil market. Domestically, supply and demand are both weak, and the spot price dropped by 400 yuan/ton. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 8946, and the resistance is 9132 [6]. 3.2.4 Corn - The new corn harvest expectation is being realized, the spot price is weak, and the futures market is in the process of contract roll - over. The 2511 contract rebounded from a low level, while the 2601 contract continued to fall. Technically, it is weak, and a short order should be held. The support for the 2511 contract is 2138, and the resistance is 2162 [8]. 3.2.5 Eggs - The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and there is still a large amount of cold - storage eggs to be released. After the festival stocking, the consumption support is insufficient, and the egg price is under great pressure to fall. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2511 contract is 3046, and the resistance is 3086 [10]. 3.2.6 Hogs - The supply pressure is high due to increased concentrated slaughter. Consumption demand has a limited increase, and the futures price hit a new low. Technically, it is weak, and short selling is recommended. The support for the 2511 contract is 12600, and the resistance is 12800 [13]. 3.2.7 Cotton - New cotton is expected to have a good harvest, while downstream demand is less than expected. The futures price hit a 3 - month low. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 13500, and the resistance is 13605 [14][16]. 3.2.8 Apples - Affected by rainfall, the bag - removing work of late - maturing Fuji apples is postponed. There is a short - term supply gap, and the price is supported. The market has some short - long liquidation, and the price fluctuates narrowly. Technically, it is strong, and a light - position long order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 8253, and the resistance is 8350 [17][19]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Xinjiang gray dates are entering the sugar - increasing stage, and there is an expected reduction in production. The arrival of goods in the sales area is small, and the price of high - quality goods is strong. The futures price continued to rebound. Technically, short orders should be closed, and a light - position long order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 10700, and the resistance is 10870 [20]. 3.2.10 White Sugar - The good harvest prospects in major sugar - producing countries overseas have pressured the external market, driving down Zhengzhou sugar. Domestically, supply has increased, and demand has entered the off - season, and the price is under pressure. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 5424, and the resistance is 5472 [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector is generally weak, with corn, eggs, pigs, and cotton prices falling, while soybean meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, apples, and jujubes show different trends of rebound or strength, and sugar prices continue to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Corn - **Market Situation**: New corn harvest expectations are being realized, with increased supply and weak demand. The price of the main 2511 contract has broken through support and is expected to continue falling [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2511 contract is technically weak, with a MACD death - cross and expanding green bars. The support level is 2140, and the resistance level is 2160. The recommended strategy is to short with a light position [4]. Eggs - **Market Situation**: High egg - laying hen inventory, increased supply due to improved laying rates and cold - storage egg release, and reduced demand after the double - festival stocking. The price of the main 2511 contract has reversed downward [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2511 contract is technically weak, having fallen below the 10 - day moving average. The support level is 3055, and the resistance level is 3100. The recommended strategy is to short with a light position [5]. Pigs - **Market Situation**: Accelerated slaughter by farmers, increased supply, and lack of significant demand growth. The price of the main 2511 contract continues to decline [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2511 contract is technically weak, with a bearish moving - average arrangement. The support level is 12700, and the resistance level is 12900. The recommended strategy is to continue shorting [7]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: Expected high cotton production and weak downstream demand. The price of the main 2601 contract has reached a 3 - month low [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2601 contract is technically weak, with expanding losses below the moving - average system and an expanding MACD green bar. The support level is 13500, and the resistance level is 13700. The recommended strategy is not specified but the trend is bearish [9]. Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: Unresolved Sino - US trade relations lead to expectations of tight soybean imports in the fourth quarter, while domestic soybean meal output is high and inventory is at a new high. The price of the main 2601 contract continues to rebound [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2601 contract is technically strong, with short - covering pushing the price above the 5 - day moving average and approaching the 10 - day moving average, and a shrinking MACD green bar. The recommended strategy is to close short positions. The support level is 3016, and the resistance level is 3050 [11]. Rapeseed Oil - **Market Situation**: Tight supply due to poor Sino - Canadian relations, low rapeseed arrivals, and planned shutdowns of oil mills. The price of the main 2601 contract is rising strongly [13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2601 contract is technically strong, with long - position increases pushing up the price, and a MACD golden cross with an expanding red bar. The recommended strategy is to hold long positions. The support level is 10050, and the resistance level is 10170 [13]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: Rain in Malaysian palm oil production areas may affect production, and export data has improved. The price of the main 2601 contract first declined and then rose [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2601 contract has rebounded above the 40 - day moving average, and the market is volatile. The recommended strategy is short - term trading. The support level is 9252, and the resistance level is 9398 [15]. Apples - **Market Situation**: Rain delays the bag - removing work of late - maturing Fuji apples, and there is a short - term supply gap. The price of the main 2601 contract first declined and then rose strongly [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2601 contract is technically strong, with a long lower - shadow阳线 and the price above the moving - average system. The recommended strategy is to go long with a light position. The support level is 8240, and the resistance level is 8363 [17]. Jujubes - **Market Situation**: Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugaring stage, and there are expectations of a production reduction. The price of the main 2601 contract is rebounding from a low level [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2601 contract has rebounded slightly, approaching the 5 - day moving average. The recommended strategy is to reduce short positions. The support level is 10580, and the resistance level is 10900 [19]. Sugar - **Market Situation**: Increased domestic sugar supply from beet sugar mills and high - volume imports, and weak demand after the peak season. The price of the main 2601 contract continues to decline [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main 2601 contract is technically weak, with the price below the moving - average system and expanding losses. The recommended strategy is to short with a light position. The support level is 5440, and the resistance level is 5480 [22].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - On Friday, the industrial silicon futures rose sharply in the afternoon, breaking through the high of Tuesday, mainly influenced by capital behavior, overall commodity sentiment, and policy news. The current spot price of industrial silicon is stable, with a slight increase in inventory. Continued attention should be paid to whether there are relevant capacity exit policies. The industrial silicon futures are running strongly [2]. - Maintain the idea of buying on dips. The recommended attention range is 9080 - 9150, and the stop - loss range is 8950 - 8990 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: According to Nonferrous Network data, this week, the weekly output of industrial silicon from sample enterprises in Xinjiang increased by 0.15 million tons to 3.36 million tons, and the operating rate increased by 3.1% to 69.36%. In Yunnan, the weekly output increased slightly by 50 tons to 7565 tons, and in Sichuan, it remained flat at 2135 tons. As the wet season deepens, the electricity price advantage in the southwest region is more obvious, accelerating the resumption of production of silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan is increasing. The wet season in the southwest lasts until October, followed by the normal - water season in November and the dry season in December, with expected production cuts in the future. Some large factories in Xinjiang maintain a stable production rhythm. Overall, the supply shows a pattern of stable production in the northwest and shrinking capacity in the southwest [6][7]. - **Demand**: The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in the organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy fields. Organic silicon's operating rate is generally stable this week, with a relatively stable demand for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon sector, the inventory and operating rate of the downstream polysilicon industry are rising, increasing the demand for industrial silicon. Frequent industry meetings have stimulated positive market expectations. In the aluminum alloy sector, the overall inventory continues to rise significantly, the operating rate of the aluminum - silicon alloy industry shows a slight increasing trend, and downstream orders are good, promoting the increase of the operating rate. In general, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries is stable [8][9]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased slightly by 0.4 million tons to 54.3 million tons, still at a high level in the same period. The downstream industrial silicon inventory was 22.15 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. As of September 19, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for industrial silicon was 49,874 lots, basically unchanged from the previous week [10]. Capital Position Analysis - At the close, the position of the 2511 main contract was 311,097 lots, an increase of 26,045 lots. The long - short list shows that the top 20 long - position seats increased by 16,175 lots, and the top 20 short - position seats increased by 13,349 lots. Although the long positions increased more than the short positions, the net short position still reached 31,225 lots [11]. Technical Analysis - On the daily level, the EMA5, 10, and 20 - day moving averages are diverging upward, and the MACD forms a golden cross upward. On Friday afternoon, it broke through the previous high, indicating strong bullish power. The upper pressure is near the previous high, and the lower support is near the neckline and the EMA5 daily line. It is recommended to pay attention to the strength on dips. The band winner indicator shows that the long - short spectrum line on the daily level is red and upward, and the red ladder line appears, with the three - line resonance diverging upward, indicating overall strong operation [13][15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Methanol**: The current situation of weak reality and strong expectation continues. Although there is a reversal logic in the fourth - quarter, the 01 contract is over - valued, lacking the value of bottom - fishing on the left side. The decline since August has not ended, and the strategy is to hold existing short positions and consider short - term shorting for non - participants [1]. - **PTA**: With the cost shift down driven by the expected oversupply of crude oil in the fourth quarter and the weakening supply - demand situation of PTA itself, the fundamentals are pessimistic, and a bearish strategy is recommended [2][3]. - **European Line**: Due to the over - capacity of European line this year and the lack of upward drive, the 10 - contract has fallen deeply, and the 12 - contract may repeat the decline. The idea is to short the 12 - contract after it breaks out of the shock [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Logic Analysis - **Methanol**: Current domestic production is at a high level year - on - year, imports have increased significantly, downstream olefin comprehensive operating rate has declined, and port inventories are still accumulating. The 01 contract has a large premium over the spot, and the fall since August continues. Wait for signs of improvement in supply and demand before considering long positions [1]. - **PTA**: There is a clear downward drive from the cost side of crude oil, and its own supply - demand is expected to weaken, with large inventory accumulation pressure under high supply and weak demand [2][3]. - **European Line**: The near - month 10 - contract has collapsed with the spot price, and the far - month 12 - contract is in a shock pattern. The 10 - contract has limited short - selling value, and the 12 - contract may fall in the future [4]. 3.2 Weekly Fundamentals - **Methanol**: As of September 17, port inventory was 155.78 million tons, up 0.48% month - on - month and 56.06% year - on - year. The weekly coal - to - methanol profit was 600 yuan/ton, total production was 181.13 million tons, down 5.33% month - on - month and 1.54% year - on - year. The device capacity utilization rate dropped to 79.9%, and the 01 - contract basis was 108 yuan/ton [5]. - **PTA**: As of September 18, the domestic PTA operating rate was 77.29%, down 2.34% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year. The weekly production was 143.08 million tons, up 3.09% month - on - month and 4.09% year - on - year. The social inventory was 203.1 million tons, up 0.3 million tons month - on - month. The demand side showed a decline in the operating load and order days of the Jiangsu - Zhejiang weaving industry [6]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **Methanol 2601 contract**: It is in a downward structure on the hourly cycle, with short - term pressure at the 2410 level [7]. - **PTA2601 contract**: It is in a downward structure on the hourly cycle, with short - term pressure at the 4690 level [7]. - **European Line 2510 contract**: It is in a downward structure on the hourly cycle, with short - term pressure at the 1130 level. The 2512 contract is in a shock structure, waiting for the convergence triangle to choose a direction [7]. 3.4 Strategy - **Methanol 2601 contract**: Hold existing short positions and consider short - term shorting on rebounds [10]. - **PTA2601 contract**: Hold existing short positions and consider shorting on rebounds [10]. - **European Line EC2510 contract**: Do not chase short positions. Wait for the 12 - contract to break the lower edge of the convergence triangle and then consider shorting [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The rebound of soybean meal futures prices is limited, and they may fluctuate at a low level in the future. Palm oil prices have broken down and are expected to remain weak. Egg prices have limited rebound and may decline again [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Soybean Meal Rebound Limited - In the third week of September, soybean meal futures prices dropped significantly due to expectations of increased domestic soybean imports and high oil - mill压榨量. But at the weekend, some short - sellers closed positions, and spot market support led to a low - level rebound, though the space is limited [2]. - Imported soybeans are arriving in large quantities, with high supply and increasing inventory. In August 2025, China's soybean imports reached 12.28 million tons, a 1.2% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 73.31 million tons, a 4% year - on - year increase. The expected arrivals in September, October, and November are 10.3 million, 9 million, and 7.5 million tons respectively. As of the end of the 37th week of 2025, domestic soybean meal inventory reached 1.17 million tons, a 0.86% week - on - week increase [3]. - Oil mills are urging提货, and the提货量 of soybean meal has returned to a high level. As of September 12, the weekly inventory提货量 of soybean meal rose to 1.6001 million tons, a 7.14% week - on - week increase. Feed enterprise inventory days reached 9.22 days, a 10.39% year - on - year increase [3][4]. - The cost of imported soybeans is high, and the downstream demand for soybean meal may be strong in the near term but weak in the long term. Currently, the demand is supported by high pig inventory, but national policies to regulate pig production may reduce future demand [6]. - Technically, the main 2601 contract of soybean meal has rebounded at a low level, standing above the 5 - day moving average, but the 10 - day moving average may pose strong resistance [7]. - For the 2601 contract of soybean meal, the strategy is to go short on rallies, with a target range of 3040 - 3050, a defense range of 3070 - 3080, a first target of 3000 - 3010, and a second target of 2980 - 2990 [8][9]. 2. Palm Oil Breaks Down - In the third week of September, palm oil futures prices broke down. The decline was due to falling international crude oil prices, an unclear US bio - fuel policy, a bearish MPOB monthly report, weak Malaysian palm oil exports, and increased domestic imports and inventory [9]. - Malaysian palm oil exports have weakened, and production is still variable. In the first half of September, production decreased by 8.05% month - on - month due to rainfall, but there is still an expectation of increased production. The export data from different institutions are inconsistent, showing overall weakness [12]. - The US bio - fuel policy is unclear, and the decline of related soybean oil prices has dragged down palm oil prices. The proposed re - allocation of bio - fuel blending obligations by the US EPA has increased uncertainty [13]. - Malaysia has raised the reference price of palm oil, and India's peak import period has passed, which may lead to a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports. China's palm oil imports have increased month - on - month, and inventory has also risen. As of September 12, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 641,500 tons, a 3.58% month - on - month and 24.92% year - on - year increase [13][15]. - Technically, the main 2601 contract of palm oil has fallen below the 40 - day moving average, with a continuous decline in MACD close to the zero - axis and a continuation of the green column, indicating a weak trend and a risk of further decline [16]. - For the 2601 contract of palm oil, the strategy is to focus on short - selling, with a target range of 9336 - 9360, a defense range of 9380 - 9390, a first target of 9280 - 9300, and a second target of 9250 - 9260 [17]. 3. Egg Rebound is Weak - In the third week of September, egg futures prices rebounded but were blocked and then declined. The initial rebound was due to pre - holiday stocking demand, but as stocking neared completion, demand support weakened, while supply increased due to high egg - laying hen inventory, improved laying rates, and the release of cold - storage eggs [19]. - Egg - laying hen inventory is high, resulting in large supply pressure. As of August 2025, the inventory of laying hens was 1.317 billion, a 2% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year increase. Although there is an expectation of a slight decline in September, the inventory is still expected to be over 1.3 billion [20]. - Under high supply pressure, the number of culled hens by the breeding end has increased. As of the week of September 18, the total number of culled hens was 576,200, a 2.05% week - on - week increase [22]. - Egg industry inventory has increased. As of September 18, the production - link inventory was 0.50 days, a 11.11% week - on - week increase, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.97 days, a 22.78% week - on - week increase [23]. - The decline in cost has put pressure on egg prices. Feed costs account for over 80% of egg - laying hen breeding costs, and the prices of corn and soybean meal have dropped, leading to a decline in comprehensive breeding costs [24]. - Technically, the main 2511 contract of eggs rebounded above the short - term moving average but lacked upward momentum, and the 40 - day moving average posed strong resistance [26]. - For the 2511 contract of eggs, the strategy is to go short on rallies, with a target range of 3148 - 3170, a defense range of 3190 - 3200, a first target of 3082 - 3100, and a second target of 3050 - 3070 [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the report analyzes multiple chemical products, with most showing a bearish or neutral outlook. The main influencing factors include supply - demand fundamentals, cost drivers, and geopolitical events. For crude oil, despite short - term geopolitical support, the medium - term supply surplus is likely, so a bearish view is maintained [1][2]. - For other products like styrene, rubber, and synthetic rubber, factors such as high inventory, weak demand, and cost pressure contribute to their bearish or neutral stances [5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Logic: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increase and seasonal weakening of US demand, a supply surplus is likely in the second half of the year. The strategy is based on the bearish medium - term fundamentals [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly fundamentals have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory persist, and new device production in September - October will add to the supply pressure. The bearish view remains [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. After a long - negative break today, the 15 - minute cycle is bearish with a pressure level at 7100. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [5]. Rubber - Logic: Overseas raw material prices have fallen, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high pressure remains. The demand is neutral with no major contradictions [8]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a long - negative break today, the short - term downward trend is confirmed. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [8]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost of butadiene, with increasing port inventory and future supply pressure. The bearish view is based on cost [11]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a new low today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 11730 [14]. PX - Logic: PX profit has recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery in the polyester peak season is slower than expected. The main driver is the cost of crude oil [16][18]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 6760. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [18]. PTA - Logic: PTA supply has increased, and demand remains high but with weak terminal demand. The main driver is the cost of crude oil [19]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level [19]. PP - Logic: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new device production. The strategy is to be cautious about short - selling after the price decline [22][23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. The 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 6975. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: High operating rate and high imports have led to inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profit has improved, the bearish view remains [26]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a new low today, the strategy is to hold the remaining short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2435 [26]. PVC - Logic: High production and high inventory persist due to high - profit烧碱 and weak domestic demand. The fundamentals are under pressure [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After a long - negative break today, the strategy is to wait and see at the hourly level [29]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The operating rate of MEG and downstream has little change, and inventory is slightly decreasing. However, future supply pressure from new devices should be noted [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a decline today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 4335 [30]. Plastic - Logic: PE operating rate has declined, but new capacity has been put into production. Demand has improved slightly in the peak season but is still below expectations. Further decline depends on the weakening of crude oil [33]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. After a decline today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - loss at 7270 [33]. Soda Ash - Logic: Supply has increased slightly, and the high - production and high - inventory situation remains. After a price decline, short - selling should be cautious, and there is no upward driver in the short term [37]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an upward structure. After a long - negative break today, the 15 - minute cycle has turned bearish with a pressure level at 1320. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities at the 15 - minute cycle [37]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Supply of liquid chlorine is sufficient, and demand from alumina and other industries has recovered. Inventory has decreased, and the short - term fundamentals have improved. The medium - term focus is on device maintenance and demand improvement [40]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. After a long - negative break today, the strategy is to hold short positions at the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2625 [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is influenced by geopolitical factors and fundamental supply - demand situations. Most products in the sector are recommended to hold short - positions, mainly due to the high probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year, especially for crude oil. Short - term geopolitical disturbances should not be over - emphasized, and investment decisions should be based on the mid - term fundamental situation [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increases and weakening US demand, the probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on the fundamental surplus situation should be maintained [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation structure. The upper limit of the oscillation range is around 491. There is an opportunity to short at high prices near the upper limit of the range, with a stop - loss reference of 491 [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly level, and try short - selling at the upper limit of the range at the end of the day, with a stop - loss of 491 [2] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The weekly fundamentals of benzene ethylene have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory situations persist, and new device launches in September - October will increase supply pressure. The downward drive of fundamentals remains [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 7105, and the decline path remains unchanged [7] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a final stop - profit reference of 7105 [7] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high inventory pressure still exists. The fundamentals are currently neutral [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level is facing a decline structure. After a rebound today, pay attention to the opportunity to short if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure of 16050 at night [9] - **Strategy**: Stop - loss the 15 - minute short - positions, and then pay attention to short - selling opportunities if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure [9] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost side, especially butadiene. With the arrival of ship cargoes and future capacity expansion, the cost side is bearish [12] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 11760, and there is potential for further decline [15] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11760 [15] (5) PX - **Logic**: PX profits have recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery is slower than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term decline structure is being tested. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper limit pressure of 6770 [20] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle [20] (6) PTA - **Logic**: PTA supply has increased, and demand is stable. The terminal operating rate in the peak season is weaker than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [22] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4700 [22] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [22] (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new capacity launches. Pay attention to the cost - side collapse logic [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 6985 [26] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [26] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High operating rates and high imports have led to high inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profits have improved, the bearish fundamental pattern remains [30] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline/oscillation structure, and the short - term is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 2435 [30] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle cautiously, with a final stop - profit reference of 2435 [30] (9) PVC - **Logic**: High production and high inventory patterns persist due to high caustic soda profits and weak downstream demand [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term rise structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4930 [33] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [33] (10) EG - **Logic**: Current supply - demand contradictions are not significant, but supply pressure may increase in the future. Pay attention to the impact of new capacity launches [34] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The short - term pressure is 4335 [34] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4335 [34] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: New capacity has increased supply pressure, and demand recovery in the peak season is limited. Further decline requires the cost - side crude oil to continue to weaken [36] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 7270 [36] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7270 [36] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: Supply is continuously increasing, and the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains. Although the previous over - valuation has been corrected, there is no upward drive in the short term [39] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the pressure, and the decline structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is 1320 [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [39] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is abundant, but demand has improved, and inventory pressure has been relieved. Mid - term attention should be paid to the impact of device maintenance and peak - season demand [43] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The daily oscillation did not change the decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 2625 [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2625 [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed trend, with some products rising and others falling. For example, egg prices are rising, while soybean meal and corn prices are falling [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Soybean meal prices have dropped significantly due to reduced concerns about tight soybean supply in the fourth - quarter after Sino - US economic and trade talks, and increased production and inventory from high - pressure oil mill operations [1]. - Corn prices have also fallen sharply as new corn is about to be concentratedly launched, leading to a large number of long - position liquidations [1]. - Egg prices have risen strongly because of the demand for double - festival stocking and the reduction of production capacity through increased culling of old laying hens [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The main 2601 contract of soybean meal has declined significantly. The Sino - US economic and trade talks may improve US soybean exports to China, alleviating supply concerns. High domestic oil mill crushing volumes have increased inventory, pressuring prices. The strategy is to hold short positions lightly, with support at 3030 and resistance at 3080 [2][3]. 3.2.2 Eggs - The main 2511 contract of eggs has risen strongly due to double - festival stocking demand. However, high egg - laying hen inventory and the inflow of low - price cold - storage eggs may limit the upside. The strategy is to close short positions and go long lightly near support, with support at 3070 and resistance at 3200 [4]. 3.2.3 Palm Oil - The main 2601 contract of palm oil has risen steadily. The increase in Malaysian palm oil exports and the decrease in production, along with domestic double - festival stocking demand, support prices. The strategy is to go long lightly, with support at 9310 and resistance at 9446 [6]. 3.2.4 Soybean Oil - The main 2601 contract of soybean oil has risen steadily. Higher external CBOT soybean oil prices and increased domestic double - festival stocking demand boost prices, despite high supply. The strategy is to go long lightly, with support at 8342 and resistance at 8400 [8]. 3.2.5 Apples - The main 2601 contract of apples has slightly adjusted after a strong rise last week. Positive factors such as active procurement in the western region, reduced seasonal fruit supply, and double - festival stocking support prices. The strategy is to go long lightly, with support at 8239 and resistance at 8400 [11]. 3.2.6 Red Dates - The main 2601 contract of red dates has dropped significantly due to lower - than - expected demand. High inventory and weak terminal demand during the double - festival stocking season pressure prices. The strategy is to close long positions and go short lightly, with support at 10700 and resistance at 10950 [12][14]. 3.2.7 White Sugar - The main 2601 contract of white sugar has rebounded steadily. Higher external prices, double - festival stocking demand, and low inventory support prices. The strategy is to go long lightly, with support at 5540 and resistance at 5594 [15]. 3.2.8 Corn - The main 2511 contract of corn has dropped significantly. The upcoming large - scale launch of new corn and long - position liquidations have led to price declines. The strategy is to go short lightly, with support at 2150 and resistance at 2188 [17]. 3.2.9 Cotton - The main 2601 contract of cotton has rebounded steadily. Although there is an expectation of increased new cotton production, supply is tight before new cotton is launched. The strategy is to close short positions and pay attention to whether the 10 - day moving average can be broken, with support at 13855 and resistance at 13985 [20]. 3.2.10 Live Pigs - The main 2511 contract of live pigs has rebounded slightly after a decline. High supply in September and weak demand, except for potential double - festival stocking, limit price increases. The strategy is to hold short positions, with support at 13120 and resistance at 13350 [21][23].