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甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251126
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 01:39
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - For methanol, the current situation remains poor. Iranian shutdown is slower than expected, and there should still be high imports in November. The contradiction in contract 01 is difficult to resolve. The port sanctions issue is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, and inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upward momentum, and the downside space depends on the inland situation. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect profits [1]. - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory, social inventory is flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The basis of contract 09 is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection molding prices are stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is flat month - on - month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. In 2025, new device pressure is high, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [5]. - For polypropylene, the upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and the middle - stream are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differences are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differences are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene price is fluctuating, and powder production start - up is stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on contract 01 is expected to be moderately excessive. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [5]. - For PVC, the basis of contract 01 is maintained at - 270, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventory of middle and upstream is continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest devices have seasonal maintenance, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. The coal market sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 19 to 25, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional prices showed certain changes. For example, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 1995 to 2057, with a daily increase of 4 on the 25th compared to the previous day. The import profit, main contract basis, and other indicators also had corresponding changes [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From November 19 to 25, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 730 on some days. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, etc. had minor changes. For example, the main contract futures price decreased from 6833 to 6762, with a daily decrease of 31 on the 25th compared to the previous day. The two - oil inventory decreased from 70 to 11701, with a daily decrease of 20 on the 25th [5]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From November 19 to 25, 2025, the Shandong propylene price increased from 5920 to 5920 (with a change process in between), and the main contract futures price decreased from 6434 to 6317, with a daily decrease of 55 on the 25th compared to the previous day. The two - oil inventory decreased from 70 to 15668, with a daily decrease of 65 on the 25th [5]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 19 to 25, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price remained at 2400 on some days, and the prices of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China and other regions had minor changes. The basis of high - end delivery products remained at - 90 on some days and then changed to - 70 [5].
永安期货铁合金早报-20251126
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 01:38
Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Morning Report - Report Date: November 26, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **Silicon Iron (SiFe)**: The latest prices of SiFe natural lumps in different regions such as Ningxia 72 (5130), Inner Mongolia 72 (5150), etc., showed various daily and weekly changes. For example, Ningxia 72 had no daily change but a -20 weekly change [2]. - **Silicon Manganese (SiMn)**: The latest prices of SiMn in different regions like Inner Mongolia 6517 (5520), Ningxia 6517 (5480), etc., also had different daily and weekly changes. Inner Mongolia 6517 had no daily change but a -80 weekly change [2]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The production capacity utilization rates of 136 SiFe production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi showed different trends over the years from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The weekly production of SiMn in China from 2021 - 2025 showed a certain range of values, from 5500 to 9000 [6]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: The demand - related data included the export prices of SiFe 72% and 75% at Tianjin Port, and the demand was also related to the production of products such as crude steel and metal magnesium [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand for SiMn in China (in ten thousand tons, according to Steel Union's caliber) showed an increasing trend from 2021 - 2025, from around 20 to 70 [4]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the CZCE SiFe warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, etc., were presented over the years from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The inventory - related data included the CZCE SiMn warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The cost - related factors included electricity prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi), and the profit data included Ningxia SiFe's cost, profit from converting to the main contract on the disk, and spot profit [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The profit data of SiMn in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and other regions, as well as the profit from converting Guangxi SiMn to the main contract on the disk, were presented from 2021 - 2025 [7].
永安期货焦煤日报-20251126
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 01:35
焦煤日报 2025/11/26 研究中心黑色团队 1900/1/4 免责声明 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯,我们力求分析及建议内容的客观、公正,研究方法专业审慎,分 析结论合理,但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考,不构成对您的任何投资 建议及入市依据,您应当自主做出期货交易决策,独立承担期货交易后果,凡据此入市者,我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司 授权,不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息 中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等,我司均不承担任何责任。 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 4000.00 4500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 ...
永安期货贵金属早报-20251126
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 01:34
Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4072.85 with no change [3] - London Silver's latest price is 48.91 with no change [3] - London Platinum's latest price is 1522.00 with no change [3] - London Palladium's latest price is 1394.00 with a change of 6.00 [3] - WTI Crude's latest price is 58.84 with no change [3] - LME Copper's latest price is 10857.00 with a change of 80.00 [3] - The latest Dollar Index is 100.20 with no change [3] - The latest Euro to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.15 with no change [3] - The latest British Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.31 with no change [3] - The latest US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate is 156.92 with no change [3] - The latest US 10 - year TIPS is 1.81 with no change [3] Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 14329.69 with no change [4] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 540.57 with a change of 8.27 [4] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1040.86 with no change [4] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15257.92 with no change [4] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 822.42 with no change [4] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2 with a change of 1.00 [4] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with a change of - 1.00 [4]
永安期货焦炭日报-20251126
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 01:28
焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯,我们力求分析及建议内容的客观、公正,研究方法专业审慎,分 析结论合理,但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考,不构成对您的任何投资 70.00 75.00 80.00 85.00 90.00 95.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 247家高炉产能利用率 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 190.00 200.00 210.00 220.00 230.00 240.00 250.00 260.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 铁水产量 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 350.00 450.00 550.00 650.00 750.00 850.00 950.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 11 ...
玻璃纯碱早报-20251126
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 01:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price, production and sales, and profit data of glass and soda ash, as well as the inventory situation of soda ash upstream [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From November 17 to November 24, 2025, most glass prices showed a downward trend. For example, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan dropped from 1070.0 to 1044.0, a decrease of 26.0; Shahe Great Wall dropped from 1053.0 to 1019.0, a decrease of 34.0 [2]. - **Production and Sales**: Shahe's glass production and sales reached 180, Hubei's was 119, East China's was 114, and South China's was 106. Shahe's factory production and sales strengthened, while its traders' low - price shipments were average, and the spot - futures shipments were poor. Hubei's factory transactions improved, but the mid - stream spot - futures transactions weakened [2]. - **Profit**: The profits of different regions and production methods varied. For example, North China's coal - fired glass profit decreased from 102.0 to 73.3, a decrease of 28.8; South China's natural gas glass profit remained at - 188.1 [2]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From November 17 to November 24, 2025, the prices of some soda ash products changed. For example, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1180.0 to 1150.0, a decrease of 30.0; the price of Qinghai heavy soda decreased from 900.0 to 870.0, a decrease of 30.0 [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The upstream inventory of the soda ash industry continued to decline, and the spot price of heavy soda in Hebei's delivery warehouse was about 1120, and about 1140 when delivered to Shahe [2].
废钢早报-20251126
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 01:10
废钢早报 日期 华东 华北 中部 华南 东北 西南 2025/11/19 2200 2273 2032 2220 2230 2093 研究中心黑色团队 2025/11/26 2025/11/20 2199 2270 2032 2214 2230 2092 2025/11/21 2199 2268 2027 2213 2228 2091 2025/11/24 2183 2263 2016 2200 2225 2088 2025/11/25 2183 2263 2015 2206 2225 2088 环比 0 0 -1 6 0 0 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯,我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正,研究方法专业审慎,分析结论合理,但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考,不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据,您应当自主做出期货交易决策,独立承担 期货交易后果,凡据此入市者,我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。 ...
铁矿石早报-20251126
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 01:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Iron Ore Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 792, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 0; PB powder price is 795, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 0; Macarthur powder price is 786, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 0; Jinbuba powder price is 748, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 2; Super Special powder price is 679, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 1; Carajás powder price is 889, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of -3 [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed powder price is 835, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 3; Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 772, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 0; Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 777, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 0 [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate price is 875, with a daily change of -4 and a weekly change of -12; 61% Indian powder price is 737, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 2; Karara concentrate price is 877, with a daily change of -4 and a weekly change of -12; Roy Hill powder price is 782, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 0; KUMBA powder price is 854, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 0; 57% Indian powder price is 614, with a daily change of 6 and a weekly change of 1; Atlas powder price is 725, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 2; Tangshan iron concentrate price is 1014, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of -6 [1]. Iron Ore Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 contract price is 794.0, with a daily change of 3.5 and a weekly change of 2.0; i2605 contract price is 769.5, with a daily change of 6.0 and a weekly change of 12.0; i2609 contract price is 743.0, with a daily change of 6.5 and a weekly change of 9.0 [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 contract price is 101.83, with a daily change of 1.08 and a weekly change of 0.64; FE05 contract price is 99.44, with a daily change of 1.03 and a weekly change of 0.71; FE09 contract price is 97.36, with a daily change of 0.94 and a weekly change of 0.76 [1].
芳烃橡胶早报-20251126
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 01:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - For PTA, with some near - end TA devices under maintenance,开工 decreasing, polyester load rising, inventory decreasing, basis strengthening slightly, and spot processing fees improving. PX domestic operation rate increases while some overseas devices reduce load. TA is expected to maintain high maintenance, downstream shows no obvious pressure, and with India's revocation of BIS certification, TA inventory accumulation slope is not high. There are opportunities for positive spread at low prices and expanding processing fees [2]. - For MEG, near - end domestic oil - based production increases load, coal - based production has some maintenance and load reduction, overall operation rate drops, overseas device restart is postponed, port inventory accumulates. In the future, inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down, and there are short - term opportunities for selling put options, but the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, near - end device operation is stable, production and sales improve slightly, inventory is basically flat. In the future, demand remains stable, short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the pattern may weaken in the long - term, and attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable and at a relatively low level, Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Data Changes**: From 2025/11/19 to 2025/11/25, crude oil decreased by 0.9, PTA spot price remained unchanged, polyester price decreased by 45, PTA processing fee increased by 12, and inventory increased by 3606. The basis increased by 5, and production and sales increased by 0.95 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Honggang's 2.5 million - ton device restarted [2]. - **Outlook**: TA maintains high maintenance, downstream has no obvious pressure, and there are opportunities for positive spread at low prices and expanding processing fees [2]. MEG - **Data Changes**: From 2025/11/19 to 2025/11/25, MEG outer - market price increased by 4, inner - market price increased by 30, coal - based profit increased by 30, and overall load remained unchanged [2]. - **Device Changes**: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device and Huayi's 200,000 - ton device were under maintenance, and Zhenhai's 800,000 - ton device restarted [2]. - **Outlook**: Inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down, short - term put - selling opportunities exist, and the long - term pattern is weak [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Data Changes**: On 2025/11/25 compared with the previous day, the price of 1.4D cotton - type increased by 35, short - fiber profit increased by 25, and pure - polyester yarn profit decreased by 35 [2]. - **Device Changes**: No device maintenance information [2]. - **Outlook**: Short - term inventory pressure is limited, but the long - term pattern may weaken, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipts [2]. Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - **Data Changes**: From 2025/11/19 to 2025/11/25, RU main contract decreased by 195, NR main contract decreased by 125. Weekly, RU main contract decreased by 170, NR main contract decreased by 195 [5]. - **Key Factors**: National explicit inventory is stable and at a low level, Thai cup - lump rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects tapping [5]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see [5]. Styrene - **Data Changes**: From 2025/11/19 to 2025/11/25, styrene (CFR China) remained unchanged, styrene (Jiangsu) increased by 10, and styrene domestic profit increased by 5 [8]. - **Outlook**: No outlook information provided [8].
油脂油料早报-20251126
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 01:05
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2) Core View The report presents overnight market information on the export sales and shipments of US soybeans and soybean meal, the expected export volumes of Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal, and the export data of Malaysian palm oil, along with the spot prices of related products [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - For the week ending October 9, US soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 78.64 million tons as expected. Current - market - year sales net increased 78.5 million tons, down 15% from the previous week and 9% from the four - week average, with next - market - year sales net increasing 0.14 million tons. Export shipments were 69.28 million tons, down 4% from the previous week but up 3% from the four - week average. New sales for the current market year were 84.78 million tons, and 0.14 million tons for the next market year [1]. - For the week ending October 9, US soybean meal export sales totaled a net increase of 35.55 million tons as expected. Current - market - year sales net increased 35.84 million tons, up 6% from the previous week and 517% from the four - week average, while next - market - year sales had a net decrease of 0.29 million tons. Export shipments were 20.42 million tons, down 36% from the previous week and 24% from the four - week average. New sales for the current market year were 37.50 million tons, and 0 for the next market year [1]. - ANEC estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in November would be 4.4 billion tons (down from last week's forecast of 4.71 billion tons), and soybean meal exports would be 2.5 billion tons (down from last week's forecast of 2.68 billion tons) [1]. - ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil product exports from November 1 - 25 decreased 18.8% compared to the same period last month, with exports of 1,041,935 tons. AmSpec Agri data showed a 16.4% decrease, with exports of 987,978 tons compared to the same period in October [1]. Spot Prices - The spot prices of various products (including soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu) from November 19 - 25, 2025 were presented in a table [2].