纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/27 SP主力合约收盘价： 5208.00 | 日期 | 2025/11/26 | 2025/11/25 | 2025/11/24 | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5208.00 | 5212.00 | 5220.00 | 5228.00 | 5298.00 | | 折美元价 | 641.47 | 641.47 | 641.40 | 641.97 | 650.10 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.07675% | -0.15326% | -0.15302% | -1.32125% | -1.81616% | | 山东银星基差 | 257 | 253 | 270 | 262 | 212 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 227 | 238 | 280 | 272 | 212 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

| | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 年变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1645.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 70.00 | 5.45% Peak Downs | 214.00 | 0.00 | 7.00 | 4.30 | -2.00 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 1000.00 | -8.00 | -40.00 | -140.00 | -5.66% Goonyella | 213.00 | 0.00 | 8.00 | 3.30 | -3.00 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1500.00 | -10.00 | -50.00 | 30.00 | -4.46% 盘面05 | 1167.50 | -21.00 | -16.00 | -173.00 | -11.25% | | 安泽主焦 | 1580.00 | 0.00 | -80.00 | -20.00 | 0.00% 盘面09 | 1235.00 | -1 ...

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are 4082.05, 50.04, 1538.00, 1394.00, 57.95, and 10857.00 respectively, with no changes [3]. - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, US Dollar to Japanese Yen, and US 10 - year TIPS are 99.81, 1.16, 1.32, 156.07, and 1.79 respectively, with no changes [3]. Group 2: Trading Data - The latest inventory of COMEX Silver, SHFE Silver, and SGE Silver are 14283.88, 531.21, and 822.42 respectively. The SHFE Silver inventory decreased by 9.36 [4]. - The latest holdings of Gold ETF and Silver ETF are 1040.86 and 15582.33 respectively, with no changes [4]. - The latest deferred fee payment directions of SGE Silver and SGE Gold are 2, and the SGE Silver's deferred fee payment direction changed by 1.00 [4]. Group 3: Others - The data sources for the above charts are Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [8].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report Core View - Not provided in the given content Summary by Related Catalog Price and Profit - Spot prices of various steel products in different regions from November 20 - 25, 2025 are presented, including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, etc. for rebar, and Tianjin, Shanghai, etc. for hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils [1] - For example, Beijing rebar price increased from 3230 on November 20 to 3250 on November 25; Shanghai hot - rolled coil price rose from 3250 on November 20 to 3320 on November 25 [1] Basis and Spread - No specific content provided in the given text Production and Inventory - No specific content provided in the given text

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - The latest prices and their daily and weekly changes are presented for different types of ferrosilicon (FeSi) and silicomanganese (SiMn) in various regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Shaanxi. For example, the latest price of 72 FeSi in Ningxia is 5100 yuan, with a daily change of -30 yuan and a weekly change of -50 yuan [2]. - Price trends of different types of FeSi and SiMn from 2021 - 2025 are shown in graphs, including market prices, export and import prices, and basis differences [3][6]. Supply - Production - related data such as the output of 136 Chinese silicon - iron enterprises (monthly and weekly), capacity utilization rates in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi), and the output of silicon - manganese in China (weekly) are presented [4][6]. - Data on the estimated and actual output of crude steel in China, metal magnesium production, and the procurement volume and price of FeSi and SiMn by Hebei Iron and Steel Group are also included [4][6]. Inventory - Inventory data of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are provided, including the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia), CZCE's warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [5][7]. - The average available days of inventory in different regions (East China, South China, North China) are also shown [5]. Cost and Profit - Cost - related data such as electricity prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi), the market price of semi - coke, and the production cost of silicon - iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia are presented [5]. - Profit - related data including the production profit of semi - coke, the profit of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi), and the export profit of 75% FeSi are provided [5][7].

900.00 1400.00 1900.00 2400.00 2900.00 3400.00 3900.00 4400.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 吕梁出厂价 焦炭日报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/11/27 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1649.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 112.42 | -6.91% 高炉开工率 | 88.58 | | -0.22 | -1.36 | 0.00% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1900.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 110.00 | 11.11% 铁水日均产量 | 236.28 | | -0.60 | -3.62 | 0.20% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1825.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 110.00 | -6.65% 盘面05 | 17 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Methanol: The current situation remains poor, with Iranian shutdowns slower than expected, high imports in November, difficult resolution of the 01 contract contradiction, difficult inventory reduction, limited upward momentum, and the downward space depending on the inland situation. Recent coal price increases have no impact on profits [1]. - Polyethylene: Overall inventory is neutral, 09 basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, import profit is around -200 with no further increase for now, LD is weakening, domestic linear production has decreased recently, and attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [4]. - PP: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, non - standard price differences are neutral, import profit is around -700, export is good.后续供应预计环比略增加, and the 01 contract may face pressure due to over - capacity, which can be relieved by strong exports or more PDH device maintenance [4]. - PVC: The basis remains stable, downstream开工 is seasonally weak, mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating, attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, etc. PVC comprehensive profit is -100 [4]. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From 2025/11/20 to 2025/11/26,动力煤期货 remained at 801,江苏现货 increased from 2007 to 2088,华南现货 increased from 1990 to 2048, etc. The daily changes on 2025/11/26 were 0 for动力煤期货, 31 for江苏现货, etc [1]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From 2025/11/20 to 2025/11/26,东北亚乙烯 was 730 (except for the last day when it was not provided),华北LL decreased from 6800 to 6700, etc. The daily changes on 2025/11/26 were -40 for华北LL, 0 for华东LL, etc [4]. PP - Price Data: From 2025/11/20 to 2025/11/26,山东丙烯 increased from 5900 to 6050,东北亚丙烯 remained at 695,华东PP decreased from 6300 to 6250, etc. The daily changes on 2025/11/26 were 130 for山东丙烯, -20 for华东PP, etc [4]. PVC - Price Data: From 2025/11/20 to 2025/11/26,西北电石 remained at 2450 (after an increase on 2025/11/24),山东烧碱 remained at 777,电石法 - 华东 decreased from 4470 to 4520, etc. The daily changes on 2025/11/26 were 0 for西北电石, -10 for电石法 - 华东, etc [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on the expected net increase in US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales for the 2025/26 and 2026/27 seasons, as well as production data for palm oil in Malaysia, rapeseed in Canada, and Australia, and the forecasted rapeseed production in the EU and UK [1]. - It also includes spot price data for various agricultural products from November 20 - 26, 2025 [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - As of the week ending October 16, US 2025/26 soybean export sales are expected to net increase by 60 - 200 million tons, with 2026/27 expected to net increase by 0 tons; US soybean meal export sales are expected to net increase by 15 - 45 million tons, with 2026/27 expected to net increase by 0 tons; US soybean oil export sales are expected to net increase by 0.5 - 2.5 million tons, with 2026/27 expected to net increase by 0 tons [1]. - SPPOMA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from November 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 5.49% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield increasing by 3.34% and oil extraction rate increasing by 0.41% [1]. - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's crude palm oil production from November 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 3.24% compared to the same period last month, with different regions having varying growth rates [1]. - Canada's rapeseed crushing volume in October 2025 was 1,026,547 tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous month and a 6.8% decrease from the same period last year; rapeseed oil production was 428,837 tons, a 0.82% increase month - on - month and a 6.62% decrease year - on - year; rapeseed meal production was 603,035 tons, a 2.26% increase month - on - month and a 6.98% decrease year - on - year [1]. - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is estimated to be 6.5 million tons, a 4.1% increase from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 6.3 - 6.7 million tons, and the average yield per hectare is adjusted to 1.90 tons [1]. - The 2026/27 rapeseed production in EU 27 + UK is estimated to be 20.3 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 19.3 - 21.3 million tons [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices for soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu are provided from November 20 - 26, 2025, showing price fluctuations during this period [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PTA**: TA maintains a high - maintenance state, downstream shows no obvious pressure, India revokes BIS certification, so TA's inventory accumulation slope is not high, and the cost - end PX has a good pattern. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of going long in the positive spread at low prices and expanding processing fees [3]. - **MEG**: With supply reduction and high - opening of polyester, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. The coal - making efficiency is at a low level, and the valuation compression space may be limited. Short - term selling of put options can be considered, while the long - term pattern is expected to be weak due to new device launches and warehouse receipt pressure [6]. - **Polyester Short Fiber**: In the short term, the inventory pressure is limited, but in the long term, as the downstream enters the off - season and new device launches are approaching, the pattern may weaken. The current processing fee is relatively neutral, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [6]. - **Natural Rubber**: The national explicit inventory is stable at a non - high level, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price Changes**: Naphtha price changes from 62.5 to 63.4, PX CFR Taiwan from 558 to 573, PTA inner - market spot from 824 to 833, etc. The PTA spot average daily trading basis is 2601(-34) [3]. - **Device Changes**: Honggang's 2.5 - million - ton device restarts. Some proximal TA devices are under maintenance, the start - up rate decreases, polyester load rises, inventory decreases, basis strengthens slightly, and spot processing fees improve [3]. MEG - **Price Changes**: Northeast Asia ethylene price remains at 730, MEG outer - market price from 452 to 463, etc. The MEG spot basis is around +13 for 01 [6]. - **Device Changes**: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device restarts; Sinochem Quanzhou's 500,000 - ton device is under maintenance. Proximal domestic oil - making increases load, coal - making has some maintenance and load reduction, overall start - up decreases, overseas device restart is postponed, port inventory accumulates [6]. Polyester Short Fiber - **Price Changes**: 1.4D cotton - type short - fiber price changes from 6340 to 6385, etc. The spot price is around 6315, and the market basis is around - 100 for 01 [6]. - **Device and Market Situation**: The device operation is stable, the start - up rate is maintained at 97.5%, sales improve slightly, and inventory is basically flat. The downstream demand is stable, but in the long term, the pattern may weaken [6]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: The price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber changes from 1815 to 1825, and the weekly change is - 25. There are also various price spreads and processing profit changes [9]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory is stable, Thai cup - rubber price is stable, and rainfall affects tapping. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [9]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: Ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remains at 730, pure benzene (CFR China) from 660 to 685, etc. There are also changes in domestic profits of styrene and its downstream products [12].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Date: November 27, 2025 [5] - Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [5] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - No clear core view is presented in the provided content. Group 4: Data Summary Basis and Spread - Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) on November 26 was 17, with a daily change of 25 [3] - East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) on November 26 was 47, with a daily change of 25 [3] - South China basis (Foshan warehouse) on November 26 was 7, with a daily change of 25 [3] - The 12 - 01 spread on November 26 was -7, with a daily change of -3 [3] - The 12 - 03 spread on November 26 was -19, with a daily change of 0 [3] - The 01 - 02 spread on November 26 was 6, with a daily change of -2 [3] Futures Contracts - The BU main contract (01) on November 26 was 3043, with a daily change of -25 [3] - The trading volume on November 26 was 342611, with a daily change of 100034 and a decrease of 9 [3] - The open interest on November 26 was 382270, with a daily change of 38521 and an increase of 5 [3] - The combination volume remained at 4690 with no change [3] Spot Prices - Brent crude oil price on November 26 was 62.5, with a daily change of -0.9 [3] - Jingbo asphalt price remained at 3000 with no change [3] - E asphalt price remained at 2980 with no change [3] - Zhenjiang warehouse asphalt price remained at 3090 with no change [3] - Foshan warehouse asphalt price remained at 3050 with no change [3] Profits - Asphalt Ma Rui profit on November 26 was 219, with a daily change of 42 [3] - Ma Rui type refinery comprehensive profit on November 26 was 802, with a daily change of 38 [3]