Yong An Qi Huo
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永安期货有色早报-20251031
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, maintain a buy - on - pullback strategy due to continued tightness in the ore end and growing infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Consider selling put options below $10,300 on LME copper or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and long - term holding on dips is recommended while keeping an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, in the face of increased macro uncertainty, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. For internal - external spreads, gradually take profits on internal - external positive spreads and watch for far - month reverse spreads. For monthly spreads, focus on the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, due to short - term weak fundamentals and increased macro uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainty and some price - support motivation from Indonesian policies [3]. - For lead, it is expected that the lead price will fluctuate narrowly between 17,300 and 17,700 next week. It is recommended to wait and see the resumption of recycled production and the increase in warehouse receipts before operating cautiously [6]. - For tin, in the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systematic macro risk, the tin price may have a large downside. In the long - term, buy on dips near the cost line [10]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom anchored by the seasonal marginal cost [13][15]. - For lithium carbonate, no specific investment strategy is given in the report. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Market sentiment is dominated by tariff negotiation progress and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan. There are still supply disturbances in scrap copper in Anhui and other places, and the uncertainty of scrap copper supply will continue to increase in the fourth quarter and next year [1]. - Overseas, the export window has opened, but no inventory delivery has been observed. The divergence between the start - up rates of copper and aluminum cables is obvious, and attention should be paid to whether the start - up rate stabilizes [1]. Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased significantly in September. There is seasonal inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots and bars, but the post - holiday inventory reduction is considerable, and the apparent demand is rising [1]. - The global economic recovery is showing signs, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthening. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations has deepened, and some European electrolytic aluminum plants have reduced production due to equipment failures [1]. Zinc - Supply: Domestic and imported TC are showing a downward trend. Domestic mines will be marginally tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while overseas mines had an unexpected increase in the second quarter. In October, smelting has slightly recovered, and attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on total profits [2]. - Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and European demand is average. Some overseas smelters face production resistance due to processing fees [2]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory is oscillating, and overseas LME inventory is decreasing. The export window has opened, and some smelters and traders are preparing for exports [2]. Nickel - Supply: The production of pure nickel remains at a high level. - Demand: Overall demand is weak, and the premium has been stable recently. - Inventory: Both domestic and overseas inventories are accumulating [3]. Stainless Steel - Supply: Steel mills' production schedules in October have increased slightly compared to the previous month. - Demand: Demand is mainly driven by rigid needs. - Cost: The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. - Inventory: Inventory remains at a high level, and warehouse receipts are stable [3]. Lead - Supply: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. The recovery of recycled lead profits has encouraged resumption of production, but the progress is slow. There is a serious supply - demand mismatch, and the spot premium in Hunan has been rising [6]. - Demand: The battery start - up rate has increased this week, and the expectation of weakening demand has been reversed. The refined - scrap spread is - 75, and the lead ingot spot premium is 15 [6]. - Inventory: The five - region social inventory is at a historical low of 31,900 tons, and the spot tightness has not eased [6]. Tin - Supply: The processing fee at the mine end is at a low level. The output of overseas Wa State is still controversial, and some mines and smelters in Indonesia have shut down [10]. - Demand: Demand is mainly supported by rigidity at high prices, and the downstream's psychological price for orders has increased [10]. - Inventory: Overseas LME inventory is oscillating and recovering at a low level [10]. Industrial Silicon - Supply: The operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang is stable. The number of start - ups in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly in the dry season, and the overall supply of industrial silicon will decline month - on - month [13][15]. - Demand: Considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply - demand in Q4 is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 40,000 - 50,000 tons [13][15]. Lithium Carbonate - The prices of SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate have both increased by 850 yuan. The basis of the main and near - month contracts has changed, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 116 [15].
焦炭日报-20251031
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - The price of Hebei quasi - dry quenching coke is 1790.00, with a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 110.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.10% [2] - The price of Shandong quasi - dry quenching coke is 1715.00, with a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 110.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 16.95% [2] - The price of Jiangsu quasi - dry quenching coke is 1755.00, with a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 110.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 16.63% [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia secondary coke is 1230.00, with a weekly increase of 50.00, a monthly increase of 150.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 23.13% [2] Production and Utilization - The blast furnace operating rate is 89.94, with a weekly decrease of 0.39, a monthly decrease of 0.92, and a year - on - year increase of 2.22% [2] - The daily average pig iron output is 236.36, with a weekly decrease of 3.54, a monthly decrease of 5.45, and a year - on - year increase of 0.38% [2] - The coking capacity utilization rate is 73.16, with a weekly decrease of 0.83, a monthly decrease of 2.15, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.54% [2] - The daily average coke output is 53.30, with a weekly increase of 2.09, a monthly increase of 1.01, and a year - on - year increase of 4.88% [2] Inventory Information - The coking plant inventory is 37.52, with a weekly increase of 0.03, a monthly decrease of 1.49, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.88% [2] - The port inventory is 211.10, with a weekly increase of 11.01, a monthly increase of 17.01, and a year - on - year increase of 18.50% [2] - The steel mill inventory is 629.05, with a weekly decrease of 4.11, a monthly decrease of 34.35, and a year - on - year increase of 8.68% [2] - The steel mill inventory days are 11.57, with a weekly increase of 0.50, a monthly decrease of 0.03, and a year - on - year increase of 4.42% [2] Futures Information - The price of futures contract 05 is 1938.5, with a daily increase of 23.50, a weekly increase of 43.50, a monthly increase of 91.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.42% [2] - The price of futures contract 09 is 2027.5, with a daily increase of 15.50, a weekly increase of 54.00, a monthly increase of 94.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 7.36% [2] - The price of futures contract 01 is 1797, with a daily increase of 21.00, a weekly increase of 31.50, a monthly increase of 86.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.53% [2] - The 05 basis is - 108.39, with a daily decrease of 23.50, a weekly increase of 15.22, a monthly increase of 9.82, and a year - on - year decrease of 173.98 [2] - The 09 basis is - 197.39, with a daily decrease of 15.50, a weekly increase of 4.72, a monthly increase of 7.32, and a year - on - year decrease of 214.48 [2] - The 01 basis is 33.11, with a daily decrease of 21.00, a weekly increase of 27.22, a monthly increase of 14.82, and a year - on - year decrease of 117.98 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is - 141.50, with a daily decrease of 2.50, a weekly decrease of 12.00, a monthly decrease of 5.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 56.00 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is - 89.00, with a daily increase of 8.00, a weekly decrease of 10.50, a monthly decrease of 2.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 40.50 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is 230.50, with a daily decrease of 5.50, a weekly increase of 22.50, a monthly increase of 7.50, and a year - on - year increase of 96.50 [2]
铁合金早报-20251031
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on October 31, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5220 and 5250 respectively, with daily changes of 50 and 50, and weekly changes of 40 and 50. The latest prices of the main contracts (01 contracts) were 5550, with daily and weekly changes of -44 and -24 [2]. - The export prices of Tianjin 72 and Tianjin 75 silicon ferroalloy were 1055 and 1105 US dollars respectively, with no daily or weekly changes [2]. - For silicon manganese, on October 31, 2025, the factory - ex - works prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 were 5680, 5600, 5650, 5600, and 5600 respectively, with different daily and weekly changes [2]. Supply - The report shows the production volume of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (monthly and weekly), and the capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 [4][5]. - It also presents the production volume of silicon manganese in China (weekly) from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Demand - It shows the estimated and actual production volumes of crude steel in China (monthly), the production volume of stainless - steel crude steel in China (monthly), and the demand volume of silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons, according to Steel Union's data) from 2021 - 2025 [5][8]. - The procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly) from 2021 - 2025 are also provided [5]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (weekly), the inventory of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly), and the inventory of silicon ferroalloy in CZCE (daily) from 2021 - 2025 are presented [6]. - For silicon manganese, the inventory data such as the total number of warehouse receipts in CZCE (daily), effective forecasts (daily), and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly) from 2021 - 2025 are shown [8]. Cost and Profit - The report includes the electricity prices of ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia (daily), the market price of small - sized blue charcoal in Shaanxi (daily), and the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 [6]. - For silicon manganese, the profit data in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions (according to Steel Union's data), and the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract price from 2021 - 2025 are provided [8].
有色套利早报-20251031
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:35
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on October 31, 2025 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 31, 2025, the domestic spot price was 88050, LME spot price was 11021, with a spot ratio of 8.04; the domestic March price was 87970, LME March price was 11042, with a March ratio of 7.97. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.08 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22250, LME spot price was 3159, with a spot ratio of 7.04; the domestic March price was 22405, LME March price was 3063, with a March ratio of 5.67. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.50, and the loss for spot import was 4588.92 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21200, LME spot price was 2856, with a spot ratio of 7.42; the domestic March price was 21280, LME March price was 2861, with a March ratio of 7.42. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32, and the loss for spot import was 2576.57 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123500, LME spot price was 15070, with a spot ratio of 8.19. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, and the loss for spot import was 1464.30 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17150, LME spot price was 1991, with a spot ratio of 8.64; the domestic March price was 17355, LME March price was 2025, with a March ratio of 11.04. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.72, and the loss for spot import was 160.71 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next - month and spot - month, March and spot - month, April and spot - month, May and spot - month were - 720, - 710, - 720, - 710 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 545, 989, 1441, 1894 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 15, 25, 45, 70 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 336, 457, 578 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 25, 10, 25, 35 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 217, 336, 454, 572 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 20, - 15, - 10, 10 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 320, 428, 535 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 270, - 140, 130, 360 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 740, and the theoretical spread was 5866 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month contract and spot, next - month contract and spot were 655, - 65 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 404, 785 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 130, 115 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 144, 267 respectively [5] - **Lead**: The spreads were 220, 200 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 162, 276 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 31, 2025, the cross - variety ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.93, 4.13, 5.07, 0.95, 1.23, 0.77 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 3.59, 3.81, 5.41, 0.94, 1.42, 0.66 respectively [5]
动力煤早报-20251031
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:10
、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等,我司均不承担任何责任。 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 766.0 0.0 -1.0 59.0 -89.0 25省终端可用天数 26.8 1.1 6.8 5.9 9.2 秦皇岛5000 676.0 0.0 -1.0 61.0 -79.0 25省终端供煤 535.7 -3.1 -72.8 -104.3 -87.1 广州港5500 805.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 -105.0 北方港库存 2181.0 -10.0 -46.0 97.0 -180.9 鄂尔多斯5500 540.0 0.0 -20.0 30.0 -90.0 北方锚地船舶 108.0 5.0 24.0 #N/A 54.0 大同5500 590.0 0.0 -20.0 25.0 -120.0 北方港调入量 167.3 11.3 18.3 #N/A -6.6 榆林6000 682.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 -138.0 北方港吞吐量 166.3 -21.7 9.1 #N/A 12.2 榆林6200 710.0 0 ...
永安期货纸浆早报-20251031
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:08
Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] 2. SP Main Contract Closing Price - On October 30, 2025, the closing price of the SP main contract was 5224.00, with a decrease of 0.34338% from the previous day. The closing prices from October 24 - 29 were 5240.00, 5258.00, 5226.00, 5242.00 respectively, with corresponding daily changes of -0.19048%, 0.34351%, -0.60860%, 0.30616% [3]. - The converted US dollar prices from October 24 - 30 were 642.32, 645.65, 642.60, 644.73, 644.73 respectively [3]. - The Shandong Yinxing basis from October 24 - 30 was 350, 242, 274, 258, 276 respectively; the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 310, 277, 309, 268, 286 respectively [3]. 3. Import Price and Profit - Calculated with 13% VAT, for Canadian Golden Lion (CFR), the port US dollar price was 780, the Shandong region RMB price was 6200, and the import profit was -127.94; for Canadian Lion (CFR), the port US dollar price was 730, the Shandong region RMB price was 5350, and the import profit was -576.79; for Chilean Yinxing (CFR letter of credit 90 days), the port US dollar price was 680, the Shandong region RMB price was 5500, and the import profit was -25.64. The previous day's exchange rate was 7.10 [4]. 4. National and Regional Pulp and Paper Prices - From October 24 - 30, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, 3686.25 respectively; the Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, 3600.00 respectively [4]. - The cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white card index), and living paper (living index) prices remained unchanged from October 27 - 30, 2025, at 5725, 5670, 4350, 841 respectively [4]. - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white card paper, and living paper from October 27 - 30, 2025, were 0.2667%, 13.2903%, -9.2823%, 6.9932% (with a change of -0.0191 for living paper) respectively [4]. 5. Pulp Price Spreads - From October 24 - 30, 2025, the softwood - hardwood pulp price spread changed from 1350 to 1250; the softwood - natural pulp price spread changed from 190 to 100; the softwood - chemimechanical pulp price spread changed from 1790 to 1700; the softwood - waste paper price spread changed from 4014 to 3924 [4].
芳烃橡胶早报-20251031
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **PTA**: The low processing fee for TA has persisted for a long time, and the improvement in terminal data supports the continuation of polyester operation. With limited new capacity coming online in the far - month, the processing fee center may gradually recover [3]. - **MEG**: EG has entered a continuous inventory accumulation phase due to high existing capacity and new plant commissioning. However, there may be some negative feedback on the supply side after the weakening of coal - based efficiency and price ratio. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling put options near the coal - based cost [9]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The operation of staple fiber plants is stable, and inventory is decreasing. Given the limited overall inventory pressure, low processing fees on the futures market, high export volume, and good spot efficiency, attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding spreads on dips and the situation of warehouse receipts [9]. - **Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber**: The national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber is stable. The current strategy is to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 24 to October 30, 2025, the price of crude oil increased by $0.1, PTA spot price increased by 85 yuan/ton, PX processing margin increased by $3/ton, and PTA processing margin increased by 87 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts increased by 6,246, and the basis increased by 6 yuan/ton [2]. - **Device Changes**: Dushan Energy's 3 - million - ton plant started production. Near - term, some TA plants restarted, and the operating rate continued to rise [3]. MEG - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 24 to October 30, 2025, the MEG outer - market price decreased by $1/ton, the inner - market price decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by $5/ton [9]. - **Device Changes**: Fujian Refining's 400,000 - ton plant restarted. Near - term, domestic oil - based plants had planned maintenance and some unexpected situations, resulting in a decline in the operating rate [9]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 24 to October 30, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber increased by 30 yuan/ton, and the profit of staple fiber decreased by 8 yuan/ton [9]. - **Device and Operation Changes**: The operating rate of staple fiber plants remained at 94%, and the operating rate of recycled cotton - type plants remained at 51%. The sales - to - production ratio improved, and inventory continued to decrease [9]. Natural Rubber & 20 - grade Rubber - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 24 to October 30, 2025, the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber decreased by $20/ton, the price of Shanghai full - latex decreased by 225 yuan/ton, and the price of RU main contract decreased by 225 yuan/ton [9]. - **Related Index Changes**: The difference between mixed rubber and RU main contract increased by 145 yuan/ton, and the difference between US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber and NR main contract remained unchanged [9]. Styrene - **Price and Index Changes**: From October 24 to October 30, 2025, the price of ethylene remained unchanged, the price of pure benzene decreased by $14/ton, and the price of styrene decreased by $10/ton. The domestic profit of styrene increased by 108 yuan/ton, and the domestic profit of EPS increased by 80 yuan/ton [12].
LPG早报-20251031
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:05
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - Domestic civil LPG prices dropped significantly, while the PG main contract fluctuated upward. With no pressure on inventory and increased downstream purchasing willingness, spot prices are expected to rise slightly. However, propane is still greatly affected by Sino - US tariff policies, so cautious participation is recommended [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Price Changes - **Daily Changes**: Civil LPG prices in some regions showed small rebounds in decline. In the East China region, the price was 4285 (+11), in Shandong it was 4280 (+10), and in South China it was 4400 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4370 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong. The daily spread was 27 (+69), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 82 (-5). The CP official price was announced slightly higher than expected, with propane and butane at 475 (-20) and 460 (-15) respectively. The FEI price increased to 513.62 (+1.62) dollars/ton [1]. - **Weekly Changes**: The domestic civil LPG price dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable product was East China civil LPG at 4279 (-66); Shandong was 4360 (+160), and South China was 4405 (-55). The number of warehouse receipts was 2416 lots, with 2300 from Wanhua, 64 more from Yunda, and 52 more from Haiyu Petrochemical. The overseas market price increased significantly [1]. Market Indicators - **Basis and Month Spreads**: The basis was - 69 (-49), the 11 - 12 month spread was 90 (-47), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 113 (-1) [1]. - **Arbitrage Windows and Spreads**: The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The CP South China arrival discount was 74 (-4). The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 116 (+0), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 56 (-4). The FEI - MOPI spread narrowed but the switching window was still open. The latest value was - 82.5 (-11.5). The PG - CP spread was 114 (-17); the PG - FEI spread was 79 (-33). The FEI - CP spread was 35 (+15) [1]. Industry Conditions - **Profit and Operating Rate**: The profit of PDH decreased. The PDH operating rate was 71.66% (+2.9 pct) due to the restart of Hebei Haiwei and the increased load of Wanda Tianhong, but the second - phase of Zhongjing shut down again. Next week, Lihuayi Weiyuan is expected to resume production [1]. - **Inventory and Supply**: The arrival volume was at a low level, the external release decreased, and both port inventories and factory warehouses decreased. Chemical demand provided support, and the expectation of combustion demand improved [1].
永安期货钢材早报-20251031
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:03
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products in different regions from October 24 to October 30, 2025, including Beijing, Shanghai, and other cities' prices for rebar and hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils. There are price changes in different regions and product types, such as Beijing rebar rising by 10 yuan, Shanghai rebar dropping by 40 yuan, etc. [1] Basis and Spread - Not provided in the given content Production and Inventory - Not provided in the given content
合成橡胶早报-20251031
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:00
Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [3] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the synthetic rubber market, including price trends, trading volumes, and profit margins for various synthetic rubber products and related raw materials from October 1 to October 30, 2025 [4]. Summary by Category BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures and Related Indicators - On October 30, the BR主力合约 (12) price was 10,800, with a daily increase of 5 and a weekly decrease of 320. The持仓量 was 47,385, down 4,831 daily and 19,309 weekly. The成交量 was 125,337, a daily decrease of 70,313 but a weekly increase of 24,677. The仓単数量 remained at 8,580, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 340. The虚实比 was 27.61, down 3 daily and 10 weekly [4]. - The顺丁基差 was 0, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 20. The丁苯县差 was 450, up 45 daily and 20 weekly. The 12 - 01 spread was 25, with no daily or weekly change, while the 01 - 02 spread was -25, down 5 daily and 30 weekly. The RU - BR spread was 4,600, a daily decrease of 230 and a weekly increase of 382, and the NR - BR spread was 1,725, down 200 daily and up 340 weekly [4]. Spot Prices and Profits - Spot prices in Shandong and Chuanhua were both 10,800 and 10,700 respectively, with no daily change and weekly decreases of 300 and 250. The Qilu factory price was 11,000, unchanged daily and down 200 weekly. CFR Northeast Asia was 1,450, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 25, and CFR Southeast Asia remained at 1,700 [4]. - The现货加工利润 was 848, up 51 daily and 506 weekly. The进口利润 was -1,336, up 1 daily and down 58 weekly. The出口利润 was 2,025, down 1 daily and up 222 weekly [4]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Prices and Profits - Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were 7,600 and 7,575 respectively, with daily decreases of 50 and 25 and weekly decreases of 790 and 775. The Yangzi factory price was 7,900, unchanged daily and down 500 weekly. CFR China was 930, down 10 daily and 40 weekly [4]. - The碳四抽提利润 decreased from 1,787 to 911 over the period. The丁烯氧化脱氢利润 was -864 on October 30, up 70 daily and down 610 weekly. The进口利润 was -35, up 56 daily and down 428 weekly, and the出口利润 was -494, down 85 daily and 59 weekly [4]. Downstream Product Profits - The丁苯生产利润 was 1,213, unchanged daily and up 225 weekly. The ABS生产利润 was 89, up 23 daily and 168 weekly. The SBS生产利润 was 485, unchanged daily and up 410 weekly [4].