Report Overview - The report is a pulp morning report released on October 30, 2025, by the energy and chemical team of the research center [2] SP Main Contract Information - On October 29, 2025, the closing price of the SP main contract was 5,242.00 [3] - The closing prices from October 23 - 29, 2025, were 5,250.00, 5,240.00, 5,258.00, 5,226.00, and 5,242.00 respectively, with daily changes of 0.57471%, -0.19048%, 0.34351%, -0.60860%, and 0.30616% [3] - The converted US - dollar prices from October 23 - 29, 2025, were 643.64, 642.32, 645.65, 642.60, and 642.60 respectively [3] - The Shandong Yinxing basis from October 23 - 29, 2025, was 350, 350, 242, 274, and 258 respectively [3] - The Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis from October 23 - 29, 2025, was 310, 310, 277, 309, and 268 respectively [3] Pulp Price and Profit Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian Golden Lion (CFR), the port US - dollar price was 780, the Shandong region RMB price was 6,200, and the import profit was - 127.94; for Canadian Lion (CFR), the port US - dollar price was 730, the Shandong region RMB price was 5,350, and the import profit was - 576.79; for Chilean Yinxing (CFR letter of credit 90 days), the port US - dollar price was 680, the Shandong region RMB price was 5,500, and the import profit was - 25.64 [4] - From October 23 - 29, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural color pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6,073.75, 4,810.75, 5,415.00, and 3,686.25 respectively; the Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged [4] - From October 24 - 29, 2025, the cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white card index), and living paper (living index) prices remained unchanged at 5,725, 5,670, 4,350, and 841 respectively [4] - From October 24 - 29, 2025, the double - offset profit margin estimates changed from - 0.0430% to 0.2667%; the double - copper profit margin estimates changed from 13.0000% to 13.2903%; the white card profit margin estimates changed from - 10.2892% to - 9.2823%; the living paper profit margin estimates changed from 7.1459% to 7.0123%, with a change of 0.0191 on the 29th compared to the previous data [4] - From October 23 - 29, 2025, the softwood - hardwood price difference changed from 1,360 to 1,250; the softwood - natural color price difference changed from 200 to 100; the softwood - chemimechanical price difference changed from 1,800 to 1,700; the softwood - waste paper price difference changed from 4,024 to 3,924 [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoint - No information provided in the given content. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 802 with a daily change of 9 and a weekly change of 24, with a discounted futures price of 858.5; PB powder is at 805 (daily +9, weekly +24), discounted futures price 854.7; Macfarlane powder is 802 (daily +9, weekly +25), discounted futures price 875.9; Jinbuba powder is 759 (daily +3, weekly +10), discounted futures price 852.7; mainstream mixed powder is 764 (daily +7, weekly +20), discounted futures price 895.9; super special powder is 715 (daily +6, weekly +10), discounted futures price 933.2; Carajás powder is 926 (daily +8, weekly +21), discounted futures price 874.3 [1]. - **Brazilian Mainstream Iron Ore**: Brazilian mixed ore is 843 (daily +9, weekly +27), discounted futures price 860.1; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 806 (daily +9, weekly +24), discounted futures price 884.2; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 811 (daily +9, weekly +24) [1]. - **Other Iron Ores**: Ukrainian concentrate is 918 (daily +8, weekly +15), discounted futures price 1009.6; 61% Indian powder is 748 (daily +3, weekly +10); Karara concentrate is 918 (daily +8, weekly +15), discounted futures price 942.6; Roy Hill powder is 792 (daily +9, weekly +24), discounted futures price 871.7; KUMBA powder is 864 (daily +9, weekly +24), discounted futures price 855.9; 57% Indian powder is 650 (daily +6, weekly +12); Atlas powder is 759 (daily +7, weekly +20); domestic Tangshan iron concentrate is 1038 (daily +5, weekly +17), discounted futures price 925.0 [1]. Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is at 804.5 (daily +12.0, weekly +30.5), with a monthly spread of -44.5; i2605 is 781.5 (daily +13.0, weekly +28.5), monthly spread 23.0; i2609 is 760.0 (daily +13.0, weekly +29.0), monthly spread 21.5 [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 is 102.67 (daily +0.50, weekly +2.42), with a monthly spread of -4.09; FE05 is 100.57 (daily +0.57, weekly +2.33), monthly spread 2.10; FE09 is 98.58 (daily +0.58, weekly +2.39), monthly spread 1.99 [1]. Import Profit - Newman powder has an import profit of -25.79; PB powder -18.53; Macfarlane powder 6.23; Jinbuba powder -3.64; mainstream mixed powder -0.41; super special powder -2.31; Carajás powder -2.57; Brazilian mixed ore -3.36; Roy Hill powder 10.77 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - For PTA, the low processing fee has persisted for a long time, and the improvement in terminal data supports the continuation of polyester operation. With limited future production capacity, the processing fee center may gradually recover [3][4]. - For MEG, the inventory is accumulating, but there may be negative feedback on the supply side due to the weakening of coal - based efficiency and comparison. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling put options near the coal - based cost [8]. - For polyester staple fiber, the overall efficiency and operation of polyester yarn have not improved significantly. With high exports and good spot efficiency, the inventory pressure is limited. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of expanding the spread at low prices and the situation of warehouse receipts [8]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber is stable. The current strategy is to wait and see [8]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Data Changes**: From October 23 - 29, 2025, the price of crude oil decreased by $0.5, PTA internal - market spot price increased by $110, and the PTA processing fee increased by $117. The PTA balance load and PTA load remained stable at 80.6% and 78.8% respectively, and the inventory (warehouse receipts + valid forecasts) increased by 5,666 [2]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Dushan Energy's 3 million - ton device was put into production. The operation of proximal TA devices restarted, and the polyester load remained stable. The basis was weak, and the spot processing fee decreased again. The domestic operation of PX increased, and the PXN spread decreased [3]. MEG - **Price and Data Changes**: From October 23 - 29, 2025, the MEG internal - market price decreased by $21, and the coal - based MEG profit decreased by $170. The total MEG load and coal - based MEG load remained stable at 73.3% and 82.2% respectively, and the port inventory remained at 523,000 tons [8]. - **Device and Market Situation**: Fulian's 400,000 - ton device restarted. The domestic oil - based maintenance was implemented, and the load decreased. The overseas operation was stable, and the port inventory increased slightly. The basis strengthened, and the coal - based efficiency and comparison rebounded [8]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Data Changes**: From October 23 - 29, 2025, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber remained stable at $6,440, and the short - fiber profit remained at $154. The production and sales ratio improved, and the inventory continued to decline [8]. - **Device and Market Situation**: The proximal device operation was stable, and the operation rate remained at 94.3%. The operation of polyester yarn remained stable, the raw material inventory increased, and the finished - product inventory decreased, with slightly weakened efficiency [8]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price and Data Changes**: From October 23 - 29, 2025, the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber increased by $115, and the price of RU main contract increased by $380. The price of Thai cup - lump rubber increased by $2.9, and the price of Yunnan glue increased by $500 [8]. - **Market Situation**: The national explicit inventory remained stable at a relatively low level, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber remained stable. Rain affected rubber tapping [8]. Styrene - **Price and Data Changes**: From October 23 - 29, 2025, the price of ethylene decreased by $30, the price of pure benzene decreased by $87, and the price of styrene increased by $5. The domestic profit of styrene increased by $46, and the domestic profit of EPS decreased by $15 [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The USDA's weekly export sales report was suspended due to the US federal government shutdown, but the overseas agricultural service will continue to process export sales information, and missing data will be补发 after federal funds are restored [1] - As of the week ending October 23, 2025, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/26 market year is expected to be 60 - 160 million tons, the net increase in US soybean meal export sales is expected to be 5 - 50 million tons, and the net increase in US soybean oil export sales is expected to be 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1] - Rabobank predicts that Brazil's soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season will be 48.8 million hectares, a 2% increase from the previous year, with a production of 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year [1] - Brazil's soybean crushing volume for the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record 60 million tons, higher than the 58 million tons in the 2024/25 season, and the export volume is expected to be 111 million tons, the same as the previous year [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices - From October 23 - 29, 2025, the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu fluctuated [2] Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis - No specific content provided [3] Oil and Oilseed Futures Spreads - No specific content provided [4]

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/10/30 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/10/23 5790 5750 5730 333 - - 8196 2025/10/24 5780 5750 5730 334 - - 8771 2025/10/27 5780 5750 5725 335 - - 8381 2025/10/28 5780 5750 5720 297 - - 8281 2025/10/29 5780 5750 5720 286 - - 8211 变化 0 0 0 -11 - - -70 【行情分析】： 白糖：国际市场方面，现阶段巴西正处于压榨高峰期，供应压力使得国际糖价承压。截至目前，巴西单产和出糖率同比持续偏低，制糖比略有 回落但仍处于历史高位，后期产量不确定性增加，关注双周报数据。国内整体跟随原糖，进口糖陆续到港，加工糖报价下调明显，盘面上方压 力较大。 | 棉花棉纱 | | 棉花 | | | 棉纱 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: October 30, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures - BR主力合约(12) price on October 29 was 10,795, down 10 from the previous day and 325 from the previous week [4] - Open interest on October 29 was 52,216, up 3,562 from the previous day and down 17,656 from the previous week [4] - Trading volume on October 29 was 195,650, up 83,214 from the previous day and 96,252 from the previous week [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on October 29 was 8,580, unchanged from the previous day and down 340 from the previous week [4] - Long - short ratio on October 29 was 30.43, up 2 from the previous day and down 9 from the previous week [4] Basis/Spread - BR basis on October 29 was 5, down 140 from the previous day and up 25 from the previous week [4] - Styrene - butadiene basis on October 29 was 405, down 140 from the previous day and up 25 from the previous week [4] - 12 - 01 spread on October 29 was 25, up 5 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [4] - 01 - 02 spread on October 29 was - 20, down 10 from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week [4] - RU - BR spread on October 29 was 4,830, up 275 from the previous day and 705 from the previous week [4] - NR - BR spread on October 29 was 1,925, up 200 from the previous day and 615 from the previous week [4] Spot - Shandong market price on October 29 was 10,800, down 150 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week [4] - Chuanhua market price on October 29 was 10,700, down 200 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on October 29 was 11,000, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the previous week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price on October 29 was 1,450, down 25 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price on October 29 was 1,700, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4] Profit - Spot processing profit on October 29 was 797, up 156 from the previous day and 516 from the previous week [4] - Import profit on October 29 was - 1,337, up 51 from the previous day and down 59 from the previous week [4] - Export profit on October 29 was 2,026, up 130 from the previous day and 223 from the previous week [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Spot - Shandong market price on October 29 was 7,650, down 300 from the previous day and 800 from the previous week [4] - Jiangsu market price on October 29 was 7,600, down 300 from the previous day and 850 from the previous week [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on October 29 was 7,900, down 300 from the previous day and 700 from the previous week [4] - CFR China price on October 29 was 940, down 10 from the previous day and 35 from the previous week [4] Profit - Carbon four extraction profit data for October 29 is not available [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on October 29 was - 934, down 300 from the previous day and 780 from the previous week [4] - Import profit on October 29 was - 91, down 219 from the previous day and 543 from the previous week [4] - Export profit on October 29 was - 444, up 190 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week [4] Group 4: Other Production Profits - Styrene - butadiene production profit on October 29 was 1,213, up 250 from the previous day and 375 from the previous week [4] - ABS production profit on October 29 was 66, up 36 from the previous day and 145 from the previous week [4] - SBS production profit data for October 29 is incomplete [4]

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Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Date of Report: October 30, 2025 [5] - Report Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [5] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given report content. Group 4: Key Data Summaries 1. Basis and Spread - **Regional Basis**: The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 126 on September 30, 113 on October 23, 125 on October 27, -3199 on October 28, and -3194 on October 29, with a daily change of 5 on October 29. The East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) and South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) also showed similar trends, with daily changes of 5 on October 29 [3]. - **Contract Spreads**: The 12 - 01 spread was 17 on September 30 and October 23, 11 on October 27, 10 on October 28, and 17 on October 29, with a daily change of 7 on October 29. The 12 - 03 spread and 01 - 02 spread also had their respective values and daily changes [3]. 2. Futures Contracts - **BU Main Contract (01)**: The price of the BU main contract (01) was 3424 on September 30, 3277 on October 23, 3295 on October 27, 3279 on October 28, and 3274 on October 29, with a daily change of -5 on October 29. The trading volume and open interest also had corresponding changes [3]. 3. Spot Prices - **Spot Prices of Different Sources**: The spot price of Jingbo was 3580 on September 30, 3330 on October 23, and 3350 on October 27. The spot prices of Hongrun, Zhenjiang Warehouse, and Foshan Warehouse also showed changes during the period [3]. 4. Profits - **Asphalt - Marey Profit**: The asphalt - Marey profit was 256 on September 30, 413 on October 23, 260 on October 27, 261 on October 28, and 283 on October 29, with a daily change of 22 on October 29. The comprehensive profit of Marey - type refineries also had corresponding values and changes [3].

Group 1: Explanation of Volatility Index - Financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility, where a larger difference indicates that the implied volatility is relatively higher than historical volatility, and a smaller difference means the opposite [3] Group 2: Volatility Data Chart - The chart shows the implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and the difference between them (IV - HV) for various products including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, silver, soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, methanol, rubber, iron ore, PTA, copper, crude oil, aluminum, PVC, rebar, urea, palm oil, etc [4] Group 3: Explanation of Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantile represents the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low [5] - Volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5] - The document provides the implied volatility quantile ranking and historical volatility quantile ranking for different products such as 300 - stock index, corn, PTA, 50ETF, methanol, etc [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall market is influenced by tariff negotiation progress and the 15th Five - Year Plan communique. Different metals have different fundamentals and investment strategies. For copper, maintain a callback - buying idea; for aluminum, hold at low prices in the long - term; for zinc, be cautious in trading; for nickel, observe; for stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak; for lead, observe the regeneration and warehouse receipts; for tin, follow the macro - mood in the short - term and hold at low prices in the long - term; for industrial silicon, prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term; for lithium carbonate, the information about industrial silicon is repeated, and there is no specific core view for lithium carbonate presented separately [1][2][3][6][10][13][16] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the Shanghai copper spot price decreased by 15, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 203, and LME inventory decreased by 1400 [1] - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment is affected by tariff negotiations and the 15th Five - Year Plan. There are supply disturbances in waste copper, and the copper cable and aluminum cable start - up rates diverge [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a callback - buying idea, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,300 or gradually establishing virtual inventory [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price remained unchanged, the domestic alumina price decreased by 4, and LME inventory decreased by 3625 [1] - **Fundamentals**: Operating capacity is flat, photovoltaic component production is stable, there is seasonal inventory accumulation, and the European electrolytic aluminum plant has a 200,000 - ton production reduction [1] - **Strategy**: Keep an eye on terminal demand in the short - term and hold at low prices in the long - term [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the zinc price oscillated upwards, the spot premium decreased by 10, and LME inventory decreased by 1800 [2] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side TC is declining, demand is seasonally weak domestically and has some resistance overseas, and the export window has opened [2] - **Strategy**: Observe in the short - term, gradually take profit on domestic - foreign positive spreads, look for far - month reverse spreads, and pay attention to the 12 - 02 positive spread opportunity [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 950, and LME inventory increased by 156 [3] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventories are increasing both at home and abroad [3] - **Strategy**: Observe due to short - term weak fundamentals and increased macro - uncertainty [3] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, and the waste stainless steel price decreased by 50 [3] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is slightly increasing, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are at a high level [3] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided, but the fundamentals are overall weak [3] Lead - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the lead price increased due to spot tightness, the spot premium increased by 10, and LME inventory decreased by 2700 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side regeneration is slow, demand has reversed the weakening expectation, and the spot is in short supply [6] - **Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate narrowly between 17,300 - 17,700, and observe the regeneration and warehouse receipt increase [6] Tin - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the tin price oscillated, the position decreased by 5024, and LME inventory decreased by 25 [10] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side processing fees are low, and demand is mainly rigid. Overseas production has uncertainties [10] - **Strategy**: Follow the macro - mood in the short - term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [10] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the basis of different grades changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 141 [11] - **Fundamentals**: Supply will decline in the dry season, but considering polysilicon plant maintenance, Q4 supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state with a monthly inventory accumulation of 400,000 - 500,000 tons [13][16] - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term [13][16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1950, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 2000, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 404 [16] - **Fundamentals**: No specific fundamentals for lithium carbonate are presented separately, and the information about industrial silicon is repeated [16] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy for lithium carbonate is provided [16]