Yong An Qi Huo
Search documents
铁矿石早报-20250813
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 00:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian Iron Ore**: Newman powder price is 783, up 8 daily and 8 weekly; PB powder is 787, up 9 daily and 7 weekly; Mac powder is 775, up 8 daily and 8 weekly; etc. Import profits vary, e.g., Newman powder has an import profit of -32.80 [1]. - **Brazilian Iron Ore**: Ba - mix price is 821, up 9 daily and 18 weekly; Ba - coarse IOC6 is 777, up 9 daily and 7 weekly; etc. [1]. - **Other Regions' Iron Ore**: Ukraine concentrate powder is 890, up 12 daily and 20 weekly; 61% Indian powder is 750, up 9 daily and 8 weekly; etc. [1]. - **Domestic Iron Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 983, up 12 daily and 44 weekly [1]. Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 price is 801.0, up 12.0 daily and 23.0 weekly; i2605 is 779.5, up 11.5 daily and 25.0 weekly; i2509 is 807.5, up 11.0 daily and 9.0 weekly. Month - to - month spreads also change, e.g., i2601's month - to - month spread is 6.5, with a daily change of 31.8 and a weekly change of - 7.0 [1]. - **SGX Contracts**: FE01 price is 103.17, up 1.41 daily and 2.15 weekly; FE05 is 101.12, up 1.53 daily and 2.22 weekly; FE09 is 103.50, up 1.40 daily and 2.00 weekly [1].
芳烃橡胶早报-20250813
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 00:35
芳烃橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/13 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯,我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正,研究方法专业审慎,分析结论合理,但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考,不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据,您应当自主做出期货交易决策,独立承担 期货交易后果,凡据此入市者,我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司授权,不得随意转 载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力 造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等,我司均不承担 任何责任。 日期 原油 石脑油 日本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 ...
永安期货集运早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 03:32
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment [2][17] - Fundamentally, in the second week of August (week33), the MSK alliance had better performance, while the OA and PA alliances had poor performance in terms of receiving goods; the goods - receiving situation in week34 significantly weakened [2][17] - EMC cancelled its independent operation ship in week35 this week, and OA added new operations in week39. The weekly average capacities in August, September (tentatively), and October (tentatively) 2025 are 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended operations, they are 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU [2][17] - From the perspective of the market, the current 10 - contract is at a discount to the spot, which has not led to a further decline in the market; the 12 - contract is given the attribute of the peak - season contract, and the continuous roll - over of positions supports it. However, the overall future drive is downward, and there is still some room for valuation. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in the 10 - contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2][17] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - For EC2508, the closing price was 2080.0, with a change of +0.43%, trading volume of 242, and open interest of 3330 with a change of - 102 [2][17] - For EC2510, the closing price was 1408.8, with a change of - 1.89%, trading volume of 44961, and open interest of 56688 with a change of +86 [2][17] - For EC2512, the closing price was 1750.0, with a change of - 0.57%, trading volume of 5/74 (might be a data error), and open interest of 10238 with a change of +33 [2][17] - For EC2602, the closing price was 1517.1, with a change of - 0.87%, trading volume of 1471, and open interest of 4202 with a change of +67 [2][17] - For EC2604, the closing price was 1344.9, with a change of - 0.60%, trading volume of 822, and open interest of 5295 with a change of - 108 [2][17] - For EC2606, the closing price was 1497.1, with a change of +0.44%, trading volume of 136, and open interest of 770 with a change of +30 [2][17] 2. Month - to - Month Spreads - The spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 671.2, with a day - on - day change of +36.2 and a week - on - week change of - 4.6 [2][17] - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 341.2, with a day - on - day change of - 17.2 and a week - on - week change of - 63.7 [2][17] - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 232.9, with a day - on - day change of +3.3 and a week - on - week change of +34.8 [2][17] 3. Index Data - The SCHIS index on August 11, 2025, was 2235.48 points, with a change of - 2.71% compared to the previous period and - 0.81% in the previous change [2][17] - The SCF (European route) index on August 8, 2025, was 1961 dollars/TEU, with a change of - 4.39% compared to the previous period and - 1.87% in the previous change [2][17] - The CCFI index on August 8, 2025, was 1799.05 points, with a change of +0.53% compared to the previous period and +0.13% in the previous change [2][17] - The NCFI index on August 8, 2025, was 1257.71 points, with a change of - 8.37% compared to the previous period and - 3.3% in the previous change [2][17] 4. Recent European Route Quotation - The average quotation in week33 was about 3150 US dollars (equivalent to about 2200 points on the disk). Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for mid - August (week33 - 34). In week34, the quotations of various shipping companies dropped by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). Among them, the PA alliance's quotation was 2700 US dollars, MSK's was 2600 US dollars, and the OA alliance's was 2900 - 3000 US dollars [3][18] - In week35, MSK opened bookings at 2200 US dollars [3][18] 5. News - On August 12, China and the US once again suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days [3][18] - On August 11, Trump and Netanyahu discussed the "plan to take over Gaza City" [4][19] - On August 12, Egypt and Qatar proposed a new Gaza cease - fire plan, and a Hamas delegation will visit Egypt to restart the Gaza cease - fire negotiation [4][19]
永安期货沥青早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 03:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - The price of the BU main contract on August 11 was 3481, with a daily change of 3 and a weekly change of -177 [4][13] - The prices of other contracts such as BU06, BU09, BU12, and BU03 also showed different degrees of change [4][13] Trading Volume and Open Interest - On August 11, the trading volume was 239,377, with a daily change of -2359 and a weekly change of 11,788 - The open interest was 449,927, with a daily change of -4667 and a weekly change of -58,198 [4][13] Spot Market Prices - The low - end prices in the Shandong, East China, South China, North China, and Northeast markets showed different degrees of change, with the Shandong market low - end price at 3530 on August 11, down 20 from the previous day and 70 from the previous week [4][13] Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis was 49 on August 11, with a daily change of -23 and a weekly change of 107 - The East China basis was 169, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 157 - For month - to - month spreads like 03 - 06, 06 - 09, etc., they also showed various changes [4][13] Crack Spread and Profit - The asphalt Brent crack spread was 38 on August 11, with a daily change of -29 and a weekly change of 58 - The asphalt Maru profit was -34, with a daily change of -25 and a weekly change of 53 - The comprehensive profit of ordinary refineries was 492, with a daily change of -13 and a weekly change of 69 [4][13] Related Prices - The Shandong market prices of gasoline, diesel, and residue oil also had corresponding changes [5][14]
集运早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The current major contradiction in the EC market lies in the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment. The fundamental situation shows that in the second week of August (week33), the cargo collection of each alliance varied, with MSK showing better results, OA average, and PA poor. In week34, cargo collection significantly declined. This week, EMC cancelled its independent ship in week35, and OA added a sailing suspension in week39. Although the shipping capacity decreased slightly, it remained at a high level. The average weekly shipping capacity in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 is 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as sailing suspensions, it is 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU. From the perspective of the market, the current October contract has a large discount to the spot price. The decline of shipping companies in the past two weeks basically met market expectations and did not drive the market to decline further. The December contract is a peak - season contract, and the continuous roll - over of positions provides some support. However, the overall future trend is downward, and there is still room for valuation adjustment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in the October contract and maintain the logic of shorting on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 EC Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On August 12, 2025, for EC2508, the price was 2080.0 with a 0.43% increase; EC2510 was 1408.8 with a 1.89% decrease; EC2512 was 1750.0 with a 0.57% decrease; EC2602 had an 0.87% decrease; EC2604 was 1344.9 with a 0.60% decrease; EC2606 was 1497.1 with a 0.44% increase. The corresponding trading volumes were 242, 44961, 5774, 1471, 822, and 136 respectively, and the open interests were 3330, 26688, 10238, 4202, 5295, and 770 respectively, with changes of - 102, 86, - 3867, - 108, - 108, and - 30 respectively [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 671.2, with a daily increase of 36.2 and a weekly decrease of 4.6. The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 341.2, with a daily decrease of 17.2 and a weekly decrease of 63.7. The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 232.9 [2]. 3.2 Shipping Index Information - **SCEIS Index**: Updated every Monday, as of August 11, 2025, the index was 2235.48, a 2.71% decrease from the previous period and a 0.81% decrease from the period before the previous one [2]. - **SCFI (European Line) Index**: Updated every Friday, as of August 8, 2025, the index was 1961, a 4.39% decrease from the previous period and a 1.87% decrease from the period before the previous one [2]. - **CCFI (European Line) Index**: Updated every Friday, as of August 8, 2025, the index was 1799.05, a 0.53% increase from the previous period and a 0.13% increase from the period before the previous one [2]. - **NCFI Index**: Updated every Friday, as of August 8, 2025, the index was 1257.71, an 8.37% decrease from the previous period and a 3.53% decrease from the period before the previous one [2]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotation Information - Currently, downstream customers are booking spaces for mid - August (week33 - 34). The average quotation in week33 was about $3150 (equivalent to around 2200 points on the futures market). In week34, shipping companies' quotations dropped by $200 - 300, with an average of $2850 (2000 points). Among them, the PA alliance quoted $2700, MSK quoted $2600, and the OA alliance quoted $2900 - 3000. For week35, MSK opened bookings at $2200 [2]. 3.4 Relevant News - On August 12, China and the US agreed to suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff for another 90 days. The US will continue to modify the implementation of the ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region) stipulated in Executive Order No. 14257 on April 2, 2025. China will also continue to modify the implementation of the ad - valorem tariff on US goods and take or maintain necessary measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures against the US [2]. - On August 11, Trump and Netanyahu discussed the "plan to take over Gaza City." On August 12, Egypt and Qatar proposed a new cease - fire plan for Gaza, and a Hamas delegation will visit Egypt to restart the cease - fire negotiations [2].
永安期货贵金属早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:43
Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 3356.40, down 37.75 [1] - London Silver latest price is 37.76, down 0.53 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 1328.00, unchanged [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1140.00, down 14.00 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 9759.00, up 50.50 [1] - Dollar Index latest is 98.50, up 0.23 [1] - Euro to US Dollar latest is 1.16, unchanged [1] - Pound to US Dollar latest is 1.34, unchanged [1] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen latest is 148.15, up 0.42 [1] Trading Data - SHFE Silver inventory is 1151.96, down 6.43 [1] - Gold ETF holdings are 964.22, up 4.58 [1] - Silver ETF holdings are 15058.60, up 67.80 [1] - SGE Silver inventory is 1368.44, unchanged [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction change is 0.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction change is 1.00 [1]
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:40
Group 1: Methanol - The methanol price followed coal price fluctuations this week, with little change in its own fundamentals, still in the process of inventory accumulation, high imports, and normal valuation, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] - From August 5th to 11th, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, the江苏 spot price decreased by 9 to 2374, the华南 spot price decreased by 3 to 2375, and the西北 discounted price increased by 13 to 2703 [2] Group 2: Polyethylene - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year, with upstream accumulation and coal - chemical de - stocking. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral, with a 09 basis of about - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. Import profit is around - 100, with no further increase for now. In August, maintenance decreased month - on - month, and domestic linear production increased month - on - month [6] - From August 5th to 11th, Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 820, the Northeast LL price increased by 10 to 7200, the East LL price increased by 10 to 7310, and the East LD price increased by 15 to 9490. The two - oil inventory remained at 75, and the warehouse receipt increased by 400 to 6282 [6] Group 3: Polypropylene - For polypropylene, upstream inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is accumulating, while mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price difference is neutral, import profit is around - 800, and export is good. The PDH profit is around - 200, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production start - up is stable. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, and downstream orders are average [6] - From August 5th to 11th, Shandong propylene increased by 220 to 6500, Northeast Asia propylene remained at 740, the East PP price increased by 10 to 7030, and the North PP price decreased by 22 to 7018. The two - oil inventory remained at 75, and the warehouse receipt remained at 12540 [6] Group 4: Polyvinyl Chloride - The PVC basis remains at 09 - 150, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 450. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventory de - stocking is slowing down. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 500. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, and the downstream performance is mediocre [6] - From August 5th to 11th, Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2350, Shandong caustic soda remained at 837, the calcium - carbide - method East price remained at 4930, and the ethylene - method East price remained at 5500 [6]
永安期货钢材早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Profit - The report presents the spot prices of various steel products including Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Xi'an, Guangzhou, and Wuhan's rebar, as well as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Lecong's hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils from August 5th to August 11th, 2025, along with their price changes [1]. Production and Inventory - Not provided Basis and Spread - Not provided
永安期货纸浆早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:38
Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] 2. SP Main Contract Closing Price - On August 11, 2025, the SP main contract closing price was 5246.00. The price showed fluctuations in the previous days, with a 1.62728% increase from the previous day. The exchange - rate - converted US dollar price was 637.80. The Shandong Yinxing basis was 604, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis was 654 [3] 3. Import Profit Calculation - Based on a 13% VAT calculation, for products from Canada, the import profit of Jinshi was 51.55, while that of Xiongshi was - 392.78. For products from Chile, the import profit of Yinxing was - 61.65. The exchange rate on the previous day was 7.18 [4] 4. Price and Profit Margin of Pulp and Paper Products - Pulp prices remained stable from August 5 to August 11, 2025, with no changes in the national average and Shandong regional average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp. Paper prices were also stable during this period, including cultural paper, packaging paper, and tissue paper. However, the profit margins of various papers showed some declines. For example, the double - offset profit margin decreased by 0.0482, the double - copper profit margin decreased by 0.0421, the white card profit margin decreased by 0.0366, and the tissue profit margin decreased by 0.2292 [4] 5. Price Spreads - The price spreads between different types of pulp showed certain changes. For example, the softwood - hardwood price spread remained at 1700 from August 5 to August 11, 2025, while the softwood - natural price spread, softwood - chemimechanical price spread, and softwood - waste paper price spread had some fluctuations [4]
燃料油早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst high - sulfur fuel oil rebounded, the near - month spread rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. The 9 - 10 month spread rebounded to $5.5 per ton, the basis oscillated at a low level (-$5), and the internal - external spread of FU01 strengthened slightly to $2.5. The 0.5 cracking spread of Singapore oscillated and continued to weaken, the 9 - 10 month spread rebounded slightly to $3.75 per ton, and the internal - external spread of LU11 oscillated around $8. [5][6] - This week, Singapore's on - shore inventory increased significantly, reaching the highest level in the same period of history. Floating storage increased month - on - month. Saudi Arabia's shipments were at a historical high in the same period, arrivals rebounded this week, and the UAE's shipments rebounded significantly month - on - month, with a significant increase in net exports. [6] - The divergence between the East and the West of high - sulfur fuel oil continued. The current price difference has triggered logistics changes. In the heavy - quality pattern, the cracking spread of Singapore 380cst is the weakest, and the premium of heavy - quality crude oil is the strongest. A two - way regression is expected in the future. [6] - This week, LU's weakening was realized, the spot price of the external MF0.5 decreased slightly, and the valuation was realized. Attention should be paid to the subsequent release of LU quotas. Pay attention to the opportunity of the widening of the 380 EW spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and exit the short - allocation of LU in the short term. [6] 3. Summary of Related Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Product | Change | | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 | -$0.57 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 | -$0.20 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -$0.15 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 | -$4.36 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$4.16 | | LGO - Brent M1 | -$0.64 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | +$0.37 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Product | Change | | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | -$6.18 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | -$2.44 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | +$0.21 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | -$0.01 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -$1.24 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | +$0.29 | [3][8] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Product | Change | | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | -$11.83 | | FOB VLSFO | -$6.30 | | 380cst Basis | -$0.05 | | High - sulfur Internal - External Spread | +$0.1 | | Low - sulfur Internal - External Spread | +$0.6 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Product | Change | | --- | --- | | FU 01 | -16 | | FU 05 | -10 | | FU 09 | -6 | | FU 01 - 05 | -6 | | FU 05 - 09 | -4 | | FU 09 - 01 | +10 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Product | Change | | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 0 | | LU 05 | +10 | | LU 09 | +18 | | LU 01 - 05 | -10 | | LU 05 - 09 | -8 | | LU 09 - 01 | +18 | [5]