芳烃橡胶早报 | 苯 乙 烯 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 乙烯(CFR东北 | 纯苯（CFR中 | 纯苯（华东） | 加氢苯（山 | 苯乙烯（CFR | | 苯乙烯（江 | 苯乙烯（华 | EPS(华东普通 | | | 亚） | 国） | | 东） | 中国） | | 苏） | 南） | 料） | | 2025/10/16 | 785 | 692 | 5615 | 5480 | 815 | | 6535 | 6695 | 7550 | | 2025/10/17 | 780 | 684 | 5615 | 5380 | 800 | | 6495 | 6610 | 7550 | | 2025/10/20 | 780 | 684 | 5535 | 5250 | 785 | | 6430 | 6570 | 7550 | | 2025/10/21 | 780 | 674 | 5435 | 5250 | 795 | | 6465 | 6550 | 7550 | | 2025/ ...

Group 1 - The meeting between the US and Chinese leaders has uncertainties, with Trump indicating that the anticipated meeting may not occur for various reasons [8][12] - China's strict control over local government hidden debt is showing effects, with the issuance of municipal bonds reaching the lowest level in five years [8][12] - The stock market in China saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.36% to 3916.33 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.06% [1][5] Group 2 - Haier Smart Home is considering an IPO for its IoT subsidiary, seeking to raise approximately $500 million (about 3.9 billion HKD) [10] - Ant Group-backed GCash plans to delay its IPO in the Philippines to the second half of 2026 due to a sluggish stock market [10] - First Pacific Company plans to spin off its water treatment services in the Philippines, with shares priced at 15 Philippine pesos each [10] Group 3 - HSBC repurchased 800 shares at a price of 102.1 HKD, totaling approximately 81,600 HKD, as part of its ongoing buyback program [14] - Pop Mart reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 245% to 250% in Q3, with significant increases in both domestic and overseas markets [14] - Cinda Biologics entered a global strategic partnership with Takeda Pharmaceuticals, receiving an upfront payment of $1.2 billion [14] Group 4 - The third quarter copper production of China Molybdenum increased by 11% year-on-year, with zinc production rising by 26% [14] - Cathay Pacific and Airbus announced a joint investment of up to $70 million (approximately 545 million HKD) to promote sustainable aviation fuel development [14] - China Life Insurance reported a significant increase in its stock price, reflecting strong market performance [18]

Report Information - The report is the Yong'an Basis Morning Report released by the Research Center on October 22, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Not provided in the report Summary by Category Macro - IF had a spot price of 4608, a change of 70, a basis of 30, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of 0.74 on October 21, 2025 [2] - IH had a spot price of 3007, a change of 32, a basis of 2, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of 0.28 on October 21, 2025 [2] - IC had a spot price of 7186, a change of 116, a basis of 133, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of 0.92 on October 21, 2025 [2] Black - In Shanghai, rebar had a spot price of 3200, no change, a basis of 153, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.83 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Beijing, rebar had a spot price of 3190, no change, a basis of 143, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.09 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Shanghai, hot-rolled coil had a spot price of 3270, no change, a basis of 51, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.77 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Shandong, ore had a spot price of 824, no change, a basis of 54, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of 0.46 on October 21, 2025 [3] - At Tianjin Port, coke had a spot price of 1656, no change, a basis of - 16, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.12 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For port warehouse receipts, coking coal had a spot price of 1583, a change of - 17, a basis of 406, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.98 on October 21, 2025 [3] - At Qinhuangdao Port, thermal coal had a spot price of 759, a change of 6, a basis of - 42, a corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation of - 0.25 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For low - price glass in Shahe, it had a spot price of 1111, a change of - 24, a basis of 24, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.24 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For low - price glass in Hubei, it had a spot price of 1070, a change of - 20, a basis of - 17, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.17 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Yinchuan, ferrosilicon had a spot price of 5530, no change, a basis of - 64, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.60 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Inner Mongolia, silicomanganese had a spot price of 6050, no change, a basis of 234, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.84 on October 21, 2025 [3] Energy and Chemicals - At the port, methanol had a spot price of 2263, no change, a basis of - 5, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of - 0.48 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Henan, methanol had a spot price of 2325, a change of - 25, a basis of 57, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.23 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In southern Shandong, methanol had a spot price of 2485, a change of - 15, a basis of 217, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.59 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Hebei, methanol had a spot price of 2785, a change of 155, a basis of 517, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.98 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In East China, PTA had a spot price of 4327, a change of 28, a basis of - 87, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of - 0.89 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In East China, PP had a spot price of 6510, a change of 20, a basis of - 73, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of - 0.57 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In North China, LLDPE had a spot price of 6840, no change, a basis of - 43, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of - 0.13 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For high - end PVC, it had a spot price of 4615, a change of - 15, a basis of - 90, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of 0.65 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For low - end PVC, it had a spot price of 4545, a change of - 15, a basis of - 160, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of 0.72 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In East China, asphalt had a spot price of 3500, a change of - 50, a basis of 343, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.76 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Shandong, asphalt had a spot price of 3320, a change of - 10, a basis of 243, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.66 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In South China, asphalt had a spot price of 3500, no change, a basis of 343, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.86 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For the domestic market of ethylene glycol, it had a spot price of 4078, a change of 1, a basis of 74, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of 0.69 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For soda ash, it had a spot price of 1120, a change of - 10, a basis of - 90, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.67 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Shandong, pulp had a spot price of 4970, a change of 10, a basis of - 200, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.76 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In East China, staple fiber had a spot price of 6105, a change of 30, a basis of 35, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of 0.46 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For urea, it had a spot price of 1490, no change, a basis of - 119, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.90 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Shanghai, natural rubber had a spot price of 14800, a change of 290, a basis of - 350, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.68 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For whole latex natural rubber, it had a spot price of 14450, a change of 340, a basis of - 700, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.57 on October 21, 2025 [3] - In Qingdao, 20 - number rubber had a spot price of 1845, a change of 20, a basis of 780, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of 1.00 on October 21, 2025 [3] - For styrene, it had a spot price of 6445, a change of 75, a basis of 7, a corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation of - 0.87 on October 21, 2025 [3] Non - ferrous Metals - On October 21, 2025, copper had a spot price of 85720, a change of 70, a basis of 60, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of 0.22 [4] - On October 21, 2025, international copper had a spot price of 75910, a change of 120, a basis of - 50, a corresponding contract of 2511, and a basis deviation of 0.72 [4] - On October 21, 2025, aluminum had a spot price of 20970, a change of 40, a basis of 10, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of 0.45 [4] - On October 21, 2025, zinc had a spot price of 21940, a change of 70, a basis of - 40, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of - 0.60 [4] - On October 21, 2025, lead had a spot price of 17000, a change of 75, a basis of - 195, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of - 0.25 [4] - On October 21, 2025, nickel had a spot price of 121700, a change of 400, a basis of 400, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of 0.77 [4] - On October 21, 2025, tin had a spot price of 281300, a change of 1300, a basis of 430, a corresponding contract provided by a third - party, and a basis deviation of 0.25 [4] Agricultural Products - In Jiangsu, 43% soybean meal had a spot price of 2870, no change, a basis of - 19, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.06 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Jiangsu, first - grade soybean oil had a spot price of 8550, a change of 10, a basis of 256, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.09 on October 21, 2025 [5] - The average price of 36% rapeseed meal in Guangdong had a spot price of 2450, a change of - 30, a basis of 129, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.88 on October 21, 2025 [5] - The market average price of rapeseed oil had a spot price of 10400, a change of - 20, a basis of 536, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 1.00 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Guangzhou, 24° palm oil had a spot price of 9290, no change, a basis of - 4, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.66 on October 21, 2025 [5] - Nationwide, cotton had a spot price of 14530, a change of 50, a basis of 990, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.51 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Guangxi, white sugar had a spot price of 5770, no change, a basis of 332, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.22 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Yunnan, white sugar had a spot price of 5840, no change, a basis of 402, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.55 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Shijiazhuang, Hebei, fresh eggs had a spot price of 2780, a change of - 110, a basis of - 166, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of - 0.51 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Dalian, Liaoning, fresh eggs had a spot price of 2710, a change of - 110, a basis of - 236, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of - 0.59 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Dezhou, Shandong, fresh eggs had a spot price of 2650, a change of - 100, a basis of - 296, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of - 0.66 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Shangqiu, Henan, fresh eggs had a spot price of 2700, a change of - 100, a basis of - 246, a corresponding contract of 2512, and a basis deviation of - 0.70 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Bei'an, soybeans had a spot price of 4050, no change, a basis of - 11, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.68 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Jiamusi, soybeans had a spot price of 4120, no change, a basis of 59, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of - 0.34 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Changchun, corn had a spot price of 2240, no change, a basis of 96, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.40 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Weifang, corn had a spot price of 2360, no change, a basis of 216, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.45 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Changchun, starch had a spot price of 2580, no change, a basis of 121, a corresponding contract of 2601, and a basis deviation of 0.24 on October 21, 2025 [5] - In Weifang, starch had a spot price of 2605, no change,

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation and Sino - US tariff policies. - In the case of high shipping capacity in week 44, it is expected that the price increase announcements in the first half of November will not be well - implemented. However, there are still upward driving forces at multiple price - increase announcement nodes in the future. - The current valuation of the December contract is high, and it may fluctuate with cargo bookings in the near future. Overall, it is recommended to conduct band trading mainly driven by spot prices. - In the case of repeated geopolitical situations, the far - month contracts have more room for increase, but the geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the 2026 contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1135.0 with a 3.17% increase, EC2512 at 1769.3 with a 5.19% increase, EC2602 at 1568.0 with a 3.02% increase, EC2604 at 1163.8 with a 0.75% increase, and EC2606 at 1361.0 with a 2.31% increase. The open interest of EC2510 decreased by 2024, while that of EC2512 increased by 2333 [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 634.3, with a month - on - month decrease of 52.4 and a week - on - week decrease of 46.3; the spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 201.3, with a month - on - month increase of 41.3 and a week - on - week decrease of 43.9 [1]. Index Information - **SCHIS**: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/10/20, the current value is 1140.38 points, with a 10.52% increase from the previous period [1]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 1145 dollars/TEU, with a 7.21% increase from the previous period [1]. - **CCFI**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 1267.91 points, with a 1.49% decrease from the previous period [1]. - **NCFI**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 803.21 points, with a 14.96% increase from the previous period [1]. Shipping Capacity and Market Conditions - **Shipping Capacity**: The average weekly shipping capacity in October, November, and December is 26.9, 31.6, and 350,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, it is 26.9, 30, and 330,000 TEU. The shipping capacity in week 44 and week 45 is 334,000 and 300,000 TEU respectively, indicating high supply pressure [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Currently in the off - season, week 42 had good cargo collection, week 43 had good cargo collection for OA with a small number of cargo roll - overs, and PA and GEMINI had average cargo collection, maintaining a weak supply - demand balance. In week 44, with high shipping capacity, the pressure on cargo collection increased significantly, especially for the PA alliance [1]. Recent European Line Quotation - **Week 42**: The final offline prices were PA at 1500, GEMINI at 1600, and OA at 1800 US dollars, with an average of 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market) [2]. - **Week 43**: The PA alliance further reduced the price by 100 to 1400 US dollars. The offline quotes were PA at 1400, GEMINI at 1600, and OA at 1800 US dollars [2]. - **November Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened the booking at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations [2]. Related News - On October 21, US Vice - President Vance arrived in Israel to promote the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan. - On the same day, US President Trump stated on his social platform that if Hamas continued to violate the agreement with the US, multiple US allies would "enter Gaza with strong force" at the US request. Trump also asked countries and Israel to hold back and hoped that Hamas would "make the right decision" [3].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The market is still dominated by the progress of tariff negotiations. For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips, considering selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventory. For aluminum, keep an eye on terminal demand in the short - term and hold on dips in the long - term. For zinc, suggest waiting and watching or considering shorting LME zinc, gradually taking profits on long - short spreads and looking for far - month reverse spreads, and paying attention to the 12 - 02 long - short spread. For nickel, suggest waiting and watching due to short - term weak fundamentals and increased macro uncertainties. For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak with short - term macro uncertainties and some price - supporting motivation from Indonesian policies. For lead, expect prices to fluctuate narrowly between 17,000 - 17,300 and consider long - short spreads. For tin, wait and watch in the short - term and hold on dips near the cost line in the long - term. For industrial silicon, expect prices to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and cycle at the bottom based on seasonal marginal costs in the long - term. For lithium carbonate, it shows a strong supply - demand pattern in the short - term, and the elasticity of demand is the key variable in the long - term [1][2][4][8][10][12][13][14] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market is influenced by tariff negotiations. The impact of this tariff conflict is estimated to be no higher than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The smelting reduction is higher than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream's psychological price for point - pricing has risen. Copper cable and aluminum cable's operations have diverged. Maintain a buying - on - dips strategy and pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1] Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production of photovoltaic components has stabilized. There is seasonal inventory accumulation for aluminum ingots and rods, but post - holiday inventory reduction is significant. The global economic recovery is showing signs, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation is strengthening, but Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain. The short - term fundamentals are okay [1] Zinc - The price fluctuates this week. The domestic TC decreases, and the imported TC increases. The domestic zinc ore will be tighter from Q4 this year to Q1 next year, while overseas ore production increased more than expected in Q2. The smelting in October has slightly recovered. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The domestic social inventory fluctuates, and the LME inventory is decreasing. The export window has opened [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level. The demand is weak, and the premium is stable. Both domestic and overseas inventories are increasing. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian ore end, and the policy has price - supporting motivation. The short - term fundamentals are weak [3][4] Stainless Steel - The steel mills' production in October has slightly increased. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. The inventory is at a high level [8] Lead - The price fluctuates slightly at a high level. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. The recycled lead production is expected to increase by 2 - 3 tons in October. The battery production rate has increased, but the finished - product inventory is high, and the demand is expected to weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 50. The LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased by 100,000 tons. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 17,000 - 17,300 next week [9][10] Tin - The price fluctuates. The ore processing fee is at a low level. The supply has marginally recovered after the Yunnan Tin's maintenance. Overseas imports from Wa State are expected to recover in October, and Indonesia's exports have resumed. The demand for solder has slightly improved during the peak season. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased, and the LME inventory is at a low - level [12] Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises continue to resume production, while the production in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly during the dry season. The supply - demand in Q4 is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 4 - 5 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term [13] Lithium Carbonate - The price fluctuates strongly. The ore end continues to hold prices, and the spot is tight. The consumption and inventory reduction of lithium salts exceed expectations. The supply - demand is strong in the short - term, with an expected inventory reduction of 8,000 - 10,000 tons in October. The elasticity of demand is the key in the long - term [14]

地区 品种 最新 日变化 周变化 折盘面 最新 日变化 周变化 进口利润 105.30 -0.65 -2.10 纽曼粉 776 0 0 830.2 100.80 -0.10 -2.70 -26.54 PB粉 777 0 -3 823.9 105.05 0.00 -1.55 -22.13 麦克粉 776 2 2 847.6 99.40 0.00 -2.50 8.09 金布巴 747 0 -3 839.8 94.45 -0.05 -2.45 10.28 主流 混合粉 739 2 -11 868.9 95.30 0.05 -2.00 0.38 超特粉 702 2 -3 918.9 90.35 0.05 -1.90 10.49 卡粉 904 3 -4 850.3 118.00 -0.10 -2.70 0.56 巴西 巴混 813 0 0 827.6 107.45 0.00 -2.75 -7.62 主流 巴粗IOC6 778 0 -6 853.4 巴粗SSFG 783 0 -6 乌克兰精粉 897 0 -8 981.4 61%印粉 736 0 -3 卡拉拉精粉 897 0 -8 919.4 罗伊山粉 764 0 -3 ...

Report Summary Key Data - From October 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.71% month - on - month, with fresh fruit bunch yield up 1.45% and oil extraction rate up 0.24% [1] - As of the week of October 18, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 21.7%, up from 11.1% the previous week, compared to 17.6% last year and a five - year average of 27.7%; the first - season corn planting rate was 33.2%, up from 31.2% the previous week, compared to 32.3% last year and a five - year average of 34.4% [1] - In September 2025, China's rapeseed meal imports were 157,669.53 tons, down 26.11% month - on - month and 29.08% year - on - year; imports from India were 75,312.91 tons, down 23.16% month - on - month but up 3025.14% year - on - year; imports from the UAE were 55,820.42 tons, down 1.89% month - on - month and up 0.68% year - on - year [1] - As of October 19, 2025, the EU's 2025/26 soybean imports were 351 million tons, compared to 368 million tons the previous year; rapeseed imports were 118 million tons, compared to 187 million tons the previous year; soybean meal imports were 541 million tons, compared to 547 million tons the previous year; palm oil imports were 86 million tons, compared to 108 million tons the previous year [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products in different regions from October 15 - 21, 2025 are presented, including prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu [2] Other Information - The report also mentions protein meal basis, oil basis, and oilseed futures price spreads [3][5]

| 22 | | --- | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | | 美元兑主要新兴经济体货币汇率 | | | | | | | | | | 巴西 | | 俄罗斯 | 南非zar | 韩元 | 泰铢 | 林吉特 | | | | 最新 | 最新 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided text. The document mainly contains data on various aspects of the asphalt market rather than explicit viewpoints. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - The prices of different BU contracts (BU10, BU11, BU12, BU01, BU03) have shown varying degrees of decline from September 22 to October 20. For example, the BU10 contract decreased from 3406 on September 22 to 3168 on October 20, a decrease of 238 [4]. - The trading volume on October 20 was 261,470, a decrease of 51,072 compared to the previous day and a decrease of 37,000 compared to September 22. The open interest on October 20 was 366,944, an increase of 8,667 compared to the previous day and an increase of 20,437 compared to September 22 [4]. Spot Market - The market prices of asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast China) have generally declined. For example, the Shandong market price decreased from 3510 on September 22 to 3350 on October 20, a decrease of 160 [4]. - The prices of different spot warehouses (Zhenjiang Warehouse, Foshan Warehouse, Hongrun, Jingbo) have also decreased to varying degrees. For example, the price of Hongrun decreased from 3490 on September 22 to 3300 on October 20, a decrease of 190 [4]. Basis and Calendar Spread - The basis and calendar spread between different contracts have changed. For example, the 10 - 11 calendar spread was 220 on October 15 and -68 on October 20, a decrease of 288 [4]. - The basis between different regions has also changed. For example, the Shandong - East China basis decreased from -70 on September 22 to -150 on October 20, a decrease of 80 [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - The asphalt - Brent crack spread decreased from 199 on October 15 to 178 on October 20, a decrease of 21 [4]. - The profits of different types of refineries (ordinary refineries, Ma Rui - type refineries) have decreased. For example, the comprehensive profit of ordinary refineries decreased from 527 on October 15 to 514 on October 20, a decrease of 13 [4]. - The import profits from South Korea to East China and from Singapore to South China have also changed. The import profit from South Korea to East China decreased from -268 on October 15 to -277 on October 20, a decrease of 9 [4]. Related Commodity Prices - The price of Brent crude oil decreased from 66.7 on September 22 to 61.0 on October 20, a decrease of 5.7 [4]. - The market prices of gasoline and diesel in Shandong have also decreased. The gasoline market price in Shandong decreased from 7464 on September 22 to 7205 on October 20, a decrease of 259 [4].

Group 1: Report Core View - This week, the high-sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level. The near-month spread weakened, the basis weakened month-on-month, the EW spread continued to weaken, the high-sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal and external prices fluctuated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low-sulfur cracking weakened month-on-month but was at a historical low year-on-year, the month spread weakened slightly, the LU internal and external prices fell to 7 - 8 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis stabilized in the second half of the week [5]. - Fundamentally, Singapore's residue inventory increased, reaching a historical high year-on-year. The floating storage stabilized after destocking, also at a high level year-on-year. The ARA residue inventory increased slightly, at a historical low for the same period. The EIA residue inventory increased slightly at a low level. Fujairah's inventory increased month-on-month, at a low level year-on-year. The high-sulfur floating storage in the Middle East increased significantly this week [6]. - Recently, the high-sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened. The cracking is supported by raw material procurement, and the short-term downside space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain a fluctuating pattern. The FU internal and external prices will be viewed in the near-term range, and the 01 contract is bearish at the end. This week, the LU market was still weak. In the fourth quarter, the overseas low-sulfur market is in a pattern of shorting on rallies. Pay attention to the quota usage for internal and external trading [6]. Group 2: Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 377.19 | 374.02 | 367.92 | 365.63 | 366.59 | 0.96 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 401.89 | 398.34 | 393.96 | 394.21 | 397.20 | 2.99 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -2.37 | -2.65 | -2.92 | -3.00 | -3.30 | -0.30 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 613.54 | 617.89 | 607.89 | 614.83 | 617.83 | 3.00 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -211.65 | -219.55 | -213.93 | -220.62 | -220.63 | -0.01 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.69 | 24.14 | 22.57 | 23.69 | 23.78 | 0.09 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 24.70 | 24.32 | 26.04 | 28.58 | 30.61 | 2.03 | [3] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 369.25 | 370.01 | 359.76 | 362.82 | 363.59 | 0.77 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 376.00 | 378.01 | 369.96 | 370.44 | 372.42 | 1.98 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 436.14 | 434.16 | 420.01 | 420.94 | 425.95 | 5.01 | | Singapore Gasoil M1 | 83.06 | 82.66 | 80.60 | 82.11 | 82.70 | 0.59 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -3.87 | -3.70 | -3.71 | -3.57 | -3.77 | -0.20 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -178.50 | -177.52 | -176.43 | -186.67 | -186.03 | 0.64 | [3][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 368.34 | 369.96 | 361.29 | - | 361.52 | - | | FOB VLSFO | 432.14 | 430.47 | 421.95 | - | 421.67 | - | | 380 Basis | -0.75 | -0.50 | -0.65 | - | -1.00 | - | | High - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | 8.9 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 0.6 | | Low - Sulfur Internal - External Spread | 6.3 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 4.3 | -0.6 | [4] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2683 | 2694 | 2627 | 2646 | 2647 | 1 | | FU 05 | 2653 | 2658 | 2600 | 2616 | 2612 | -4 | | FU 09 | 2600 | 2608 | 2560 | 2575 | 2566 | -9 | | FU 01 - 05 | 30 | 36 | 27 | 30 | 35 | 5 | | FU 05 - 09 | 53 | 50 | 40 | 41 | 46 | 5 | | FU 09 - 01 | -83 | -86 | -67 | -71 | -81 | -10 | [4] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/10/15 | 2025/10/16 | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/20 | 2025/10/21 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3159 | 3158 | 3064 | 3081 | 3070 | -11 | | LU 05 | 3161 | 3172 | 3099 | 3117 | 3093 | -24 | | LU 09 | 3160 | 3183 | 3110 | 3139 | 3105 | -34 | | LU 01 - 05 | -2 | -14 | -35 | -36 | -23 | 13 | | LU 05 - 09 | 1 | -11 | -11 | -22 | -12 | 10 | | LU 09 - 01 | 1 | 25 | 46 | 58 | 35 | -23 | [5]