Yong An Qi Huo

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永安期货大类资产早报-20250625
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 04:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No explicit core viewpoints are presented in the provided text. The report mainly offers data on global asset market performance, including bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and trading data for stock and bond futures. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: On June 24, 2025, yields varied across major economies. For example, the US was at 4.296%, and Japan at 3.864%. Changes over different time - frames (latest, one - week, one - month, one - year) also differed. The US had a latest change of - 0.053, a one - year change of 0.074 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields on June 24, 2025, were as follows: the US at 3.900%, and Japan at 0.733%. There were also different changes over various time - periods. The US had a latest change of 0.060 and a one - year change of - 0.850 [3]. - **Dollar to Major Emerging Economy Currency Exchange Rates**: On June 24, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar to the Brazilian real was 5.511 with a 0.26% latest change. Rates and changes varied for other currencies like the Russian ruble, South African rand, etc [3]. - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On June 24, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6092.180 with a 1.11% latest change. Different indices had different performance over various time - frames. The S&P 500 had a one - year change of 12.16% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different types of credit bond indices (US investment - grade, euro - zone investment - grade, etc.) had positive changes over different time - periods. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.42% and a one - year change of 5.35% [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: On June 24, 2025, the A - share index closed at 3420.57 with a 1.15% increase. Other indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., also had their respective closing prices and percentage changes [4]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) values for indices such as the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were provided. The CSI 300 had a PE (TTM) of 13.03 with a 0.13环比 change [4]. - **Risk Premium**: Risk premium values and their环比 changes were given for different indices. The CSI 300 had a risk premium of 3.70 with a 0.00环比 change [4]. - **Fund Flow**: Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flow were presented for different segments of the A - share market. The A - share market had a latest fund flow value of 491.60 and a 5 - day average of - 240.08 [4]. - **Trading Volume**: Latest trading volume values and环比 changes were provided for different market segments. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had a latest trading volume of 14145.82 with a 2919.75环比 change [4]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: Basis and percentage changes were given for futures contracts such as IF, IH, and IC. The IF contract had a basis of - 51.63 and a - 1.32% change [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: On June 24, 2025, the T00 contract closed at 109.025 with a 0.00% change, and the T01 contract closed at 109.045 with a 0.02% change [5]. - **Funding Rates**: Funding rates such as R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were provided along with their daily changes. R001 was at 1.4380% with a - 12.00 BP daily change [5].
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250625
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 04:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: High imports are materializing, and inventory accumulation has begun. The market is in a low - valuation state, waiting for the off - season expectations to be fully priced in. It is in a period of negative factor realization. With macroeconomic instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine, but due to the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: The inventory of two major oil companies is neutral compared to the same period. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. Overall inventory is neutral. Import profit is around - 400 with no further increase for now. In June, maintenance is decreasing month - on - month, and domestic linear production is increasing. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The upstream and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. The basis is + 100, non - standard price differences are neutral, and import profit is around - 500. Exports are performing well this year. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is under neutral to excessive pressure. If exports continue to boom or PDH device maintenance increases, supply pressure can be alleviated [6]. - **PVC**: The basis has strengthened to 09 - 150. Middle and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. In June, attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability. The current static inventory is at a high level but decreasing. Attention should be paid to factors such as exports, coal prices, and terminal orders [10]. 3. Summary by Sector Methanol - **Price Changes**: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased by 100, South China spot by 133, and Northwest converted - to - futures price by 18. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main - contract basis increased by 30. The MTO profit on the futures market increased by 187 [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: High imports are being realized, and inventory accumulation has started. Iranian production has decreased, but non - Iranian supply has increased, and domestic supply has also risen [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Changes**: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, North China LL decreased by 115, and East China LD decreased by 75. The import profit remained unchanged, and the main - contract futures price decreased by 194 [6]. - **Inventory and Supply**: The inventory of two major oil companies is neutral. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory. In June, maintenance is decreasing month - on - month, and domestic linear production is increasing [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Changes**: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Shandong propylene decreased by 90, and the main - contract futures price decreased by 188. The basis increased by 60 [6]. - **Inventory and Supply**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing. In June, supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Under over - capacity, the 09 contract is under pressure [6]. PVC - **Price Changes**: From June 18 to June 24, the price of Northwest calcium carbide decreased by 25, and the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 80 [10]. - **Inventory and Supply**: Middle and upstream inventories are continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of Northwest devices is ongoing, and the load is between the spring maintenance and Q1 high - production levels. In June, attention should be paid to new device commissioning and export sustainability [10].
永安期货焦炭日报-20250625
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 04:25
免责声明 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯,我们力求分析及建议内容的客观、公正,研究方法专业审慎,分 析结论合理,但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考,不构成对您的任何投资 建议及入市依据,您应当自主做出期货交易决策,独立承担期货交易后果,凡据此入市者,我司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我司 授权,不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息 中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等,我司均不承担任何责任。 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 4000.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 10 ...
贵金属早报-20250625
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 04:24
贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/25 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3302.50 36.07 1295.00 1069.00 64.37 9718.00 变化 -78.05 -0.06 31.00 24.00 -4.14 79.00 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 97.97 1.16 1.36 144.89 - 变化 -0.41 0.00 0.01 -1.25 - 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 库存 | | | 库存 | 递延费支付方向 | 递延费支付方向 | | 最新 | - | 1256.83 | 955.68 | 14877.49 | 1378.88 | 2 | 1 | | 变化 | - | 9.73 | -1.72 | -73.50 | 0.00 ...
焦煤日报-20250625
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 04:23
Report Information - Report Name: Coking Coal Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [1] Price and Inventory Data Coal Prices - The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1100.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 5.00, a monthly decrease of 100.00, and an annual decrease of 40.54% [2] - The latest price of Peak Downs is 189.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 1.50, a monthly decrease of 15.50, and an annual decrease of 64.50 [2] - The latest price of Goonyella is 193.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 1.50, a monthly decrease of 12.50, and an annual decrease of 62.00 [2] - The latest price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1170.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly decrease of 60.00, and an annual decrease of 38.42% [2] - The latest price of Raw Coal Port Delivery Price is 720.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 20.00, a monthly decrease of 35.00, and an annual decrease of 45.86% [2] - The latest price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1060.00, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 40.00, a monthly decrease of 120.00, and an annual decrease of 41.11% [2] Futures Prices - The latest price of Futures Contract 05 is 860.00, with a daily increase of 6.50, a weekly increase of 23.00, a monthly increase of 24.00, and an annual decrease of 50.22% [2] - The latest price of Futures Contract 09 is 798.50, with a daily decrease of 1.00, a weekly increase of 7.00, a monthly decrease of 2.00, and an annual decrease of 49.46% [2] - The latest price of Futures Contract 01 is 839.00, with a daily increase of 8.50, a weekly increase of 26.50, a monthly increase of 21.50, and an annual decrease of 51.59% [2] Inventory Data - The total inventory is 4059.19, with a weekly increase of 13.79, a monthly increase of 75.55, and an annual increase of 21.23% [2] - The coal mine inventory is 499.15, with a weekly increase of 13.11, a monthly increase of 51.62, and an annual increase of 80.37% [2] - The port inventory is 312.02, with a weekly decrease of 1.00, a monthly increase of 5.93, and an annual increase of 33.06% [2] - The steel mill coking coal inventory is 773.98, with a weekly increase of 3.07, a monthly decrease of 17.23, and an annual increase of 2.33% [2] - The coking plant coking coal inventory is 798.07, with a weekly decrease of 20.85, a monthly decrease of 86.86, and an annual decrease of 13.81% [2] Other Data - The coking capacity utilization rate is 73.57, with a weekly decrease of 0.39, a monthly decrease of 2.30, and an annual increase of 1.22% [2] - The coking coke inventory is 87.39, with a weekly increase of 0.27, a monthly increase of 0.18, and an annual decrease of 0.21% [2] - The 05 basis is -124.90, with a daily decrease of 6.50, a weekly decrease of 12.80, a monthly decrease of 138.29, and an annual increase of 110.36 [2] - The 09 basis is -63.40, with a daily increase of 1.00, a weekly increase of 3.20, a monthly decrease of 112.29, and an annual decrease of 0.28 [2] - The 01 basis is -103.90, with a daily decrease of 8.50, a weekly decrease of 16.30, a monthly decrease of 135.79, and an annual decrease of 0.57 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is 61.50, with a daily increase of 7.50, a weekly increase of 16.00, a monthly increase of 26.00, and an annual decrease of 0.58 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is -40.50, with a daily decrease of 9.50, a weekly decrease of 19.50, a monthly decrease of 23.50, and an annual decrease of 0.74 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is -21.00, with a daily increase of 2.00, a weekly increase of 3.50, a monthly decrease of 2.50, and an annual decrease of 4.82 [2]
永安期货纸浆早报-20250625
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 03:04
纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/25 SP主力合约收盘价: 5136.00 | 日期 | 2025/06/24 | 2025/06/23 | 2025/06/20 | 2025/06/19 | 2025/06/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5136.00 | 5278.00 | 5120.00 | 5254.00 | 5240.00 | | 折美元价 | 624.56 | 641.38 | 622.11 | 638.21 | 636.61 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -2.69041% | 3.08594% | -2.55044% | 0.26718% | 0.38314% | | 山东银星基差 | 914 | 812 | 970 | 846 | 860 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 929 | 832 | 990 | 881 | 895 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...
永安期货有色早报-20250625
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 02:54
有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/25 铜 : 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/18 190 827 101943 47014 -1191.00 9.70 40.0 61.0 105.96 107350 53175 2025/06/19 135 657 101943 44816 -1293.68 271.41 40.0 61.0 133.36 103325 49100 2025/06/20 115 581 100814 33882 -2374.98 385.28 40.0 61.0 274.99 99200 44800 2025/06/23 90 521 100814 25528 -2539.49 228.07 38.0 60.0 279.97 95875 41450 2025/06/24 35 621 100814 22425 -1604.62 112.67 38.0 59.0 150.85 94675 40150 变化 -5 ...
永安期货铁合金早报-20250625
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 02:54
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy on June 25, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5100 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the main contract price was 5288 yuan, a daily decrease of 28 yuan and a weekly increase of 24 yuan [2]. - The latest price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy export (in US dollars) was 1020, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 35 [2]. - For silicon manganese, the latest ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5500 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 yuan; the main contract price was 5556 yuan, a daily decrease of 54 yuan and a weekly increase of 20 yuan [2]. Supply - The production volume of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (monthly) and the production volume of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (weekly, with a production capacity share of 95%) are presented from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - The production volume of silicon manganese in China (weekly) is shown from 2021 - 2025 [6]. Demand - The estimated and revised monthly production volume of crude steel in China from 2021 - 2025 is provided, which reflects the demand situation to some extent [4][7]. - The demand volume of silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons, according to the Steel Union's data) from 2021 - 2025 is presented [4][7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (weekly) and the inventory of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia (weekly) from 2021 - 2025 are shown [5]. - The total number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts (daily), effective forecasts (daily), and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts (daily) from 2021 - 2025 are presented [7]. Cost and Profit - The electricity prices of ferroalloys in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are provided, which are important cost factors [5]. - The production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5]. - The profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and other regions from 2021 - 2025 is shown [7].
波动率数据日报-20250625
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 02:35
Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and the commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates the relative level of implied volatility to historical volatility. A larger difference means a higher implied volatility relative to historical volatility, and a smaller difference means a lower implied volatility relative to historical volatility [3] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Charts - There are multiple charts showing the implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and their differences (IV - HV) for various financial and commodity options, including 300股指, 50ETF, 1000股指, 500ETF, corn, sugar, cotton, rubber, PTA, crude oil, aluminum, methanol, iron ore, Chinese options, PVC, rebar, urea, palm oil, zinc, and others [4][5][6] Group 3: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Quantiles - The implied volatility quantile represents the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means the current implied volatility is low. The volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [18] - The implied and historical volatility quantile rankings are provided for different options. For example, PTA has an implied volatility quantile of 0.71 and a historical volatility quantile of 0.84, while 300股指 has an implied volatility quantile of 0.07 and a historical volatility quantile of 0.01 [20]
废钢早报-20250625
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 02:23
废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/06/25 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/06/18 | 2166 | 2250 | 2024 | 2179 | 2189 | 2105 | | 2025/06/19 | 2166 | 2250 | 2024 | 2178 | 2189 | 2105 | | 2025/06/20 | 2166 | 2251 | 2019 | 2175 | 2192 | 2106 | | 2025/06/23 | 2167 | 2254 | 2019 | 2169 | 2193 | 2105 | | 2025/06/24 | 2166 | 2254 | 2019 | 2158 | 2181 | 2102 | | 环比 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -11 | -12 | -3 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯,我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正,研究方法专业审 ...