Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The corn market is affected by the targeted auction policy in the short - term, with strong basis and trade inversion. After the New Year's Day, downstream seasonal restocking may drive up prices. In the long - term, import and domestic auction policies should be focused on [2]. - The starch market has a slow de - stocking speed due to weak downstream restocking. The price adjustment space is limited, and it is expected to strengthen slightly after the New Year's Day. Long - term price depends on downstream consumption rhythm [2]. - The short - term supply pressure of raw sugar decreases, and the medium - and long - term price will be affected by the global sugar market surplus and policies [3]. - The initial inventory of cotton is low, and demand is expected to improve next year due to expanding textile production, good profits, and favorable tariff policies, suitable for long - term long positions [4]. - For eggs, the存栏 inflection point has appeared, and the egg price in the second quarter may be boosted if there is a concentrated elimination of chickens before the Laba Festival [11]. - The apple market has a weak trading atmosphere recently. Good - quality apples maintain stable prices, and the market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak [17]. - After the New Year's Day, the short - term sentiment of the pig market is weak. There may be a supply - demand mismatch in January, and long - term improvement depends on further production and inventory reduction [17]. Summaries by Commodities Corn/Starch - **Price and Basis**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, corn prices in some regions changed slightly, and the basis strengthened. Starch prices remained stable, and the basis increased slightly [1]. - **Trade and Profit**: Corn trade profit fluctuated between - 10 and 10, and the import profit increased from 206 to 287. Starch processing profit decreased from - 49 to - 79 [1]. Sugar - **Price and Basis**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the spot prices of sugar in different regions decreased, and the basis decreased by 46 [3]. - **Import Profit and Warehouse Receipts**: The import profit from Thailand and Brazil fluctuated, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1696 [3]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price and Profit**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the price of domestic cotton increased by 160, and the import profit of cotton and the spinning profit of 32S decreased [4]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The sum of warehouse receipts and forecasts increased by 130 [4]. Eggs - **Price and Basis**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, egg prices in some production areas increased slightly, and the basis decreased by 1 [10]. - **Substitute Prices**: The prices of white - feather broilers increased by 0.03, yellow - feather broilers decreased by 0.05, and pigs increased by 0.37 [10]. Apples - **Price and Basis**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the prices of good - quality apples remained stable, and the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 10 - month basis changed significantly [16][17]. - **Inventory**: As of January 1, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 797.14 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.18 million tons [17]. Pigs - **Price and Basis**: From December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, pig prices in some production areas fluctuated, and the basis decreased by 415 [17].

Group 1: Volatility Index Explanation - The implied volatility index of financial options reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, while the implied volatility index of commodity options is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the implied volatility trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility indicates the relationship between implied and historical volatility. A larger difference means implied volatility is relatively higher, and a smaller difference means it is relatively lower [3] Group 2: Volatility Data Visualization - The document presents multiple charts showing the relationships between implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and their differences (IV - HV) for various financial and commodity options such as 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, silver, gold, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [4] Group 3: Quantile Explanation - Implied volatility quantile represents the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low [5] - Volatility spread is calculated by adding the index and historical volatility [5]

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.169, UK 4.476, France 3.562, Germany 2.854, Italy 3.548, Spain 3.286, Switzerland 0.277, Greece 3.439, Japan 2.059, Brazil 6.209, China 1.843, Australia 4.741, New Zealand 4.397 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.475, UK 3.714, Germany 2.120, Japan 1.168, Italy 2.194, China (1Y yield) 1.342, Australia 4.056 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil (not fully shown), Russia (not fully shown), South Africa zar 16.561, South Korean won (not fully shown), Thai baht (not fully shown), Malaysian ringgit 4.060 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.988, off - shore RMB 6.976, RMB central parity rate 7.029, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.862 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indexes: S&P 500 6845.500, Dow Jones Industrial Average 48063.290, Nasdaq 23241.990, Mexican Index 64308.290, UK Index 9931.380, France CAC 8149.500, German DAX (not fully shown), Spanish Index 17307.800, Russian Index (not fully shown), Nikkei (not fully shown), Hang Seng Index 25630.540, Shanghai Composite Index 3968.840, Taiwan Index (not fully shown), South Korean Index (not fully shown), Indian Index (not fully shown), Thai Index (not fully shown), Malaysian Index 1680.110, Australian Index 9018.786, Emerging - economy Index 1404.370 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indexes: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3545.180, Eurozone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.782, Emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 290.360, US high - yield credit - bond index 2914.490, Eurozone high - yield credit - bond index 410.300, Emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1824.631 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - shares' closing price is 3968.84 with a 0.09% increase; CSI 300's closing price is 4629.94 with a - 0.46% decrease; SSE 50's closing price is 3031.13 with a - 0.18% decrease; ChiNext's closing price is 3203.17 with a - 1.23% decrease; CSI 500's closing price is 7465.57 with a 0.09% increase [4] - Valuation: PE (TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.17 with a - 0.02 change; SSE 50 is 11.85 with a 0.02 change; CSI 500 is 33.80 with a 0.01 change; S&P 500 is 27.34 with a - 0.21 change; German DAX is 18.95 with a 0.00 change [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.51 with a - 0.02 change; German DAX is 2.42 with a 0.00 change [4] - Fund flow: The latest values for A - shares are - 601.31, for the main board - 430.72, for the ChiNext - 108.75, for CSI 300 - 177.02; the 5 - day average values for A - shares are - 401.18, for the main board - 313.35, for the ChiNext - 66.25, for CSI 300 - 21.09 [4] - Transaction amount: The latest values for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are 20451.42 with a - 971.84 change; for CSI 300 are 4444.92 with a - 126.93 change; for SSE 50 are 1076.68 with a - 55.07 change; for the small - and - medium - sized board are 4402.75 with a - 233.99 change; for the ChiNext are 5436.92 with a - 158.03 change [5] - Main contract basis and spread: For IF, the basis is - 30.14 with a - 0.65% spread; for IH, the basis is - 6.13 with a - 0.20% spread; for IC, the basis is - 102.77 with a - 1.38% spread [5] Group 3: Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices of treasury bond futures: T2303 is 107.86 with a - 0.07% change; TF2303 is 105.76 with a - 0.05% change; T2306 is 107.88 with a - 0.06% change; TF2306 is 105.75 with a - 0.07% change [5] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.4568% with a - 60.00 BP change; R007 is 2.1559% with a 10.00 BP change; SHIBOR - 3M is 1.6000% with a 0.00 BP change [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the domestic market's downstream purchasing willingness has declined significantly due to high prices, and the support near key price points should be noted. In the future, macro and industrial factors need to be monitored [1]. - For aluminum, domestic apparent demand and terminal consumption show signs of weakening, but low inventory levels and strong expectations support the current high prices [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary reduction in supply at the end of the year, so the price may not fall deeply. Attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between policy and fundamentals due to the Indonesian nickel association's quota plan [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, but the price rebounds in the short term due to the Indonesian policy [7]. - For lead, the lead price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. - For tin, the short - term supply may fluctuate greatly, and the fundamentals show signs of weakening. It can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter of 2026 [12]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate with costs, and the medium - to - long - term price will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [15][16]. - For lithium carbonate, the downstream positive electrode production is lower than expected, but the new energy vehicle subsidy policy supports the price. The raw material supply is tight, and the downstream demand shows signs of improvement [19]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the spot price of Shanghai copper decreased by 45, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 408, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 10,037 [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic market's downstream purchasing willingness has declined significantly due to high prices. Attention should be paid to the support near key price points. In the future, monitor domestic risk appetite, Fed's actions, the contraction of the New York spread, and the maintenance of high premiums in non - US regions [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 280, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 280, and the Guangdong aluminum ingot price increased by 290. The domestic alumina price decreased by 1. The SHFE social inventory remained unchanged, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The import of primary aluminum decreased in November, while the export of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and semi - finished products increased. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than expected. The automobile terminal sales are poor, but the photovoltaic installation volume has rebounded better than expected. The inventory of aluminum ingots and products has increased, and the apparent demand has decreased [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the spot premium remained unchanged, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 20, the Tianjin zinc ingot price increased by 40, and the Guangdong zinc ingot price increased by 40. The zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE zinc exchange inventory remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The LME zinc 0 - 3M backwardation maintained a volatile trend, alleviating the overseas supply - demand contradiction. The supply of domestic and imported zinc concentrates is tightening, and the output of some smelters has decreased. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 3,300, the Jinchuan premium increased by 350, and the Russian nickel premium remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term fundamentals are weak. The Indonesian nickel association's quota plan has increased the motivation to go long, and there is a game between policy and fundamentals [4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 304 hot - rolled coil increased by 150, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 430 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel increased by 120 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, the cost is relatively stable, and the inventory is at a high level. The Indonesian policy has a certain price - supporting motivation [7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the spot premium increased by 10, the Shanghai - Henan price difference decreased by 25, the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased by 25, and the 1 secondary lead price difference remained unchanged. The social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price followed the macro trend to rise. The supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated to some extent, but the battery factory's high - level production makes it difficult to accumulate inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the spot import profit increased by 16,004.33, the spot export profit decreased by 14,232.80, the tin position decreased by 6,427, the LME C - 3M decreased by 5, the LME inventory increased by 90, and the LME cancelled warehouse receipts remained unchanged [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin price fluctuated and declined. The short - term supply may fluctuate greatly, and the fundamentals show signs of weakening. It can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter of 2026 [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 55, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 55, the 553 East China basis increased by 55, the 553 Tianjin basis increased by 55, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 204 [15]. - **Market Outlook**: A large factory in Xinjiang reduced production. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate with costs, and the medium - to - long - term price will oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From December 25 to 31, 2025, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 500, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 500, the main contract basis increased by 500, the near - month contract basis increased by 40, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 790 [19]. - **Market Outlook**: The downstream positive electrode production is lower than expected, but the new energy vehicle subsidy policy supports the price. The raw material supply is tight, and the downstream demand shows signs of improvement [19].

Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 4307.95, change is -59.85 [1] - London Silver latest price is 71.99, change is -2.85 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 2226.00, change is 46.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1660.00, change is 12.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 57.42, change is -0.53 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 12495.50, change is 19.00 [1] - US Dollar Index latest is 98.27, change is 0.05 [1] - EUR/USD latest is 1.17, change is -0.00 [1] - GBP/USD latest is 1.35, change is 0.00 [1] - USD/JPY latest is 156.67, change is 0.25 [1] - US 10 - year TIPS latest is 1.93, change is 0.03 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory latest is 13978.71, change is 18.52 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory latest is 691.64, change is -64.11 [1] - Gold ETF持仓 latest is 1070.56, change is -1.43 [1] - Silver ETF持仓 latest is 16444.14, change is -11.28 [1] - SGE Silver inventory data not provided [1] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction change is 1.00 [1] - SGE Silver deferred fee payment direction change is 0.00 [1]

· 欧佩克+同意第一季度暂停增产 会议未谈及委内瑞拉问题 金十数据1月4日讯，欧佩克+在声明中表示，欧佩克+同意在2026年第一季度维持石油产量稳定。周日的欧佩克+会议召 开之际，由于市场对供应过剩的担忧加剧，2025年油价已下跌超过18%，创下自2020年以来最大年度跌幅。该组织在 去年11月已同意在今年1月、2月和3月暂停增产。欧佩克+将于2月1日举行下一次会议。此外，一位欧佩克+代表表示， 八个成员国在周日的简短线上会议上并未讨论委内瑞拉问题。 原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/05 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/25 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/05 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 801 2150 2125 2385 2485 2355 2465 250 - 7 20 - 801 2145 2120 2370 2485 2355 2445 248 320 20 15 - 801 2150 2135 2345 2485 2355 2400 251 320 5 15 - 801 2182 2188 2355 2460 2315 2400 256 320 8 -30 - 801 2210 2193 2345 2450 2315 2430 258 - 1 -25 - 日度变化 0 28 5 -10 -10 0 30 2 - -7 5 - 内地见底，港口交易大去库，但需注意到大去库前提是MTO开工高，目前MTO利润一般，压制甲醇高度；委内船月 度预计2-3船，8 -10w月均，关注后续发酵，短期可能仍正常发货，另一边关注油的变化，甲醇现在高度有限是因为 其他下游不行，如果油把其他东 西带起来了可能打开上限。 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息 ...

| 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | 纸浆早报 | 日期 | 2025/12/31 | 2025/12/30 | 2025/12/29 | 2025/12/26 | 2025/12/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5532.00 | 5568.00 | 5510.00 | 5630.00 | 5604.00 | | 折美元价 | 691.61 | 696.05 | 686.78 | 702.06 | 698.96 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -0.64655% | 1.05263% | -2.13144% | 0.46395% | -0.28470% | | 山东银星基差 | 58 | 22 | 80 | -40 | -14 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 28 | -8 | 50 | -70 | -44 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 加拿大 | 金狮 | CFR | 78 ...

| | | | 钢材早报 | | 研究中心黑色团队 2026/01/05 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2025/12/25 | 3160 | 3290 | 3340 | 3250 | 3520 | 3390 | | 2025/12/26 | 3160 | 3280 | 3330 | 3240 | 3520 | 3350 | | 2025/12/29 | 3170 | 3320 | 3370 | 3240 | 3520 | 3390 | | 2025/12/30 | 3170 | 3320 | 3340 | 3290 | 3520 | 3390 | | 2025/12/31 | 3170 | 3320 | 3320 | 3250 | 3520 | 3390 | | 变化 | 0 | 0 | -20 | -40 | 0 | 0 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 | 上海热卷 | 乐从热卷 | 天津冷卷 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Not explicitly stated in the report Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on January 5, 2026, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon ferroalloy natural block was 5300, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 70; the main contract price was 5672, with a daily decrease of 78 and a weekly increase of 16. The export price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1020, with no daily or weekly change. For silicon manganese, the latest ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese was 5650, no daily change and a weekly increase of 80, and the main contract price was 5920, with a daily decrease of 22 and a weekly increase of 88 [2] Supply - The report presents historical data on the production volume of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China (monthly and weekly), and the production volume of silicon manganese in China (weekly). It also shows the capacity utilization rates of 136 silicon ferroalloy production enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly) [4][6] Demand - The report provides historical data on the estimated production volume of crude steel in China (monthly), the production volume of stainless - steel crude steel in China (monthly), and the procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly). It also shows the demand volume of silicon manganese in China (in ten thousand tons, according to Steel Union's data) [4][7] Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, the report shows the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi (weekly), as well as the total number of warehouse receipts of silicon ferroalloy on CZCE (daily), effective forecasts (daily), and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts (daily). For silicon manganese, it presents the total number of warehouse receipts on CZCE (daily), effective forecasts (daily), and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective inventory (daily), along with the inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly, in tons) [5][7] Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, the report shows the electricity prices in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (daily), the market mainstream price of small - sized semi - coke in Shaanxi (daily), the production cost of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia (yuan/ton), and the profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia (spot and converted to the main contract) and the export profit of 75 - grade silicon ferroalloy (in RMB). For silicon manganese, it shows the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern region, and the southern region (according to Steel Union, in yuan/ton), and the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract [5][7]