Group 1: Report Core View - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and after the holiday, it weakened slightly. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from its low point but remained weak year-on-year. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [5]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil significantly increased in inventory, the high-sulfur floating storage significantly decreased in inventory, ARA's residual oil slightly increased in inventory, Fujairah's residual oil decreased in inventory, the high-sulfur floating storage decreased in inventory, and EIA's residual oil slightly increased in inventory. The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, which has a short-term positive and long-term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics interruption. The arrival premium of Merey crude oil at the end of December remained around -12. The high-sulfur spot market remained loose. Attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium of heavy raw materials recently. The low-sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [6]. Group 2: Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by 1.66, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by 0.83, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by 0.38, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by -6.29, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by 7.12, LGO - Brent M1 changed by -0.16, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by -0.83 [3]. Group 3: Singapore Fuel Oil Data Swap Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by 0.51, Singapore 180cst M1 changed by -1.75, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by -4.87, Singapore Gasoil M1 changed by 0.26, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by 0.30, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by -6.80 [3]. Spot Data - From December 26 to December 31, 2025, the price of Singapore FOB 380cst changed by -0.04, FOB VLSFO changed by -2.74, 380 basis changed by -0.55, high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference changed by -1.6, and low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference changed by 0.0 [4]. Group 4: Domestic FU Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of FU 01 changed by -75, FU 05 changed by -20, FU 09 changed by -18, FU 01 - 05 changed by -55, FU 05 - 09 changed by -2, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 57 [4]. Group 5: Domestic LU Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of LU 01 changed by -245, LU 05 changed by -40, LU 09 changed by -32, LU 01 - 05 changed by -205, LU 05 - 09 changed by -8, and LU 09 - 01 changed by 213 [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - No information provided Group 3: Summary of Spot Market - For Australian mainstream iron ore, Newman powder was priced at 799 with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 11, PB powder at 802 (daily +1, weekly +11), Mac powder at 804 (daily +1, weekly +18), etc [1]. - Brazilian mainstream iron ore included Ba Hun at 852 (daily +1, weekly +25), Ba Cu IOC6 at 766 (daily +1, weekly +11), etc [1]. - Other types like Ukrainian concentrate powder was at 878 (daily +1, weekly +3), 61% Indian powder at 744 (daily +1, weekly +11), etc [1]. - Domestic iron ore, such as Tangshan iron concentrate powder, was priced at 982 with no daily change and a weekly change of 6 [1]. Group 4: Summary of Futures Market - For DCE contracts, i2601 was at 805.0 (daily -4.0, weekly +7.0), i2605 at 789.5 (daily +0.5, weekly +10.0), i2609 at 768.5 (daily +1.5, weekly +10.5) [1]. - For SGX contracts, FE01 was at 105.68 (daily -0.15, weekly +1.31), FE05 at 104.03 (daily -0.14, weekly +1.50), FE09 at 102.03 (daily -0.13, weekly +1.62) [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the price has strengthened significantly recently. However, downstream filament profits have declined substantially, increasing the possibility of accelerated production cuts. Although the long - term pattern has not completely reversed, the probability of falling short of expectations has risen, and the short - term upside space may be limited. One should wait for downstream price pass - through [1]. - For MEG, the domestic supply is expected to increase steadily while overseas maintenance is increasing. The overall inventory accumulation will continue, and the absolute inventory is not low. The market pattern is expected to remain weak, and one should focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1]. - For polyester staple fiber, although the domestic demand side is gradually entering the off - season, the spot profit has been significantly compressed after the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the futures processing margin has remained low. Considering the relatively low absolute inventory, the room for further weakening is limited, and one should pay attention to the situation of warehouse receipts [1]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory remains stable. The strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Situation**: Some PTA devices have restarted, the operating rate has increased month - on - month, the polyester load has rebounded, the inventory has decreased slightly, the basis has strengthened, and the spot processing margin has improved. The domestic operating rate of PX has increased, and there has also been a slight increase overseas. The PXN has shrunk month - on - month, and the disproportionation and isomerization benefits have weakened month - on - month. The aromatics price spread between the US and Asia has continued to shrink [1]. - **Price and Basis**: The average daily basis of PTA spot transactions for 2605 is - 47 [1]. - **Device Changes**: The 2.5 - million - ton device in Dushan has restarted, and the 2.5 - million - ton device of Shandong Weilian has increased its load [1]. MEG - **Market Situation**: The domestic oil - based operating rate has increased, and overseas maintenance has continued to increase. The port inventory has accumulated at the beginning of next week, and the arrival forecast during the week remains stable. The basis remains weak, and the coal - based profit has fluctuated at a low level [1]. - **Price and Basis**: The basis of MEG spot transactions for 05 is around - 142 [1]. - **Device Changes**: The 200,000 - ton device of Guangxi Huayi has restarted, and the 200,000 - ton device of Henan Coal Industry has been under maintenance [1]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Situation**: Some devices in Zhejiang have restarted, and the operating rate has slightly increased to 97.6%. The sales volume has weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has accumulated month - on - month. On the demand side, the operating rate of polyester yarn has remained stable, the raw material inventory has decreased, and the finished product inventory has accumulated, with the profit improving month - on - month [1]. - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is around 6,550, and the market basis for 02 is around - 100 [1]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: There have been daily and weekly changes in the prices of various types of natural rubber, such as 20 - number rubber, US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, etc. For example, the daily change in the price of US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber is 0, and the weekly change is - 20 [1]. - **Spread Changes**: There have been changes in various spreads, such as the spread between mixed rubber and RU main contract, the spread between NR main contract and US - dollar - denominated Thai standard rubber, etc. [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: The national explicit inventory remains stable [1]. Styrene and Related Products - **Price Changes**: There have been daily changes in the prices of styrene, pure benzene, and related products. For example, the daily change in the price of styrene in Jiangsu is 5 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: There have been changes in the production profits of ABS, EPS, PS, etc. For example, the daily change in the domestic profit of ABS is - 10 [1]. - **Operating Rate Changes**: There have been fluctuations in the operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, etc. [1]

油脂油料早报 研究中心交营品团队 2026/01/05 隔夜市场信息 : 截至12月25日当周，美国大豆出口销售料净增70-195万吨 分析师预估显示,截至12月25日当周,美国大豆出口销售料净增70-195万吨。其中2025-26年度料净增70-180万 吨, 2026-27年度料净增0-15万吨。 ○○○ 鳳点资讯 据总资H 美国豆粕出口销售料净增15-50万吨。其中2025-26年度料净增15-50万吨,2026-27年度料净增0吨。美国豆油出口 销售料净增0-2万吨。其中2025-26年度料净增0-2万吨，2026-27年度料净增0吨。 OGO 000 OO 幅点赏H 美国11月大豆压榨量为662万短吨 USDA发布的月度油将压榨报告显示，美国2025年11月大豆压榨量为662万短吨(2.21亿蒲式耳）。2025年10月为709 万短吨(2.36亿蒲式耳),2024年11月为630万短吨(2.10亿蒲式耳）。 ○○○ 隔点资讯 美国11月毛豆油产量为25.3亿磅，较2025年10月下降8%，但较2024年11月上升2%。豆粕产量为4,880,779短吨。 国11月玉米干酒糟(DDGS)产量为175万短 ...

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2026/01/05 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/25 | 2174 | 2254 | 2036 | 2227 | 2217 | 2091 | | 2025/12/26 | 2173 | 2253 | 2039 | 2224 | 2215 | 2092 | | 2025/12/29 | 2164 | 2252 | 2035 | 2222 | 2213 | 2091 | | 2025/12/30 | 2164 | 2251 | 2034 | 2226 | 2213 | 2091 | | 2025/12/31 | 2162 | 2251 | 2034 | 2227 | 2213 | 2091 | | 环比 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and lead on January 5, 2026 [1][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 98790, LME spot is 12526, ratio is 7.86; March price is 98380, LME March is 12496, ratio is 7.97. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 7.94 with a profit of - 1808.32, spot export profit is - 455.42 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 23310, LME spot is 3081, ratio is 7.56; March price is 23310, LME March is 3117, ratio is 5.52. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.36 with a profit of - 2455.24 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 22460, LME spot is 2966, ratio is 7.57; March price is 22950, LME March is 2993, ratio is 7.59. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.33 with a profit of - 2249.88 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 135050, LME spot is 16455, ratio is 8.21. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.03 with a profit of 1259.30 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 17150, LME spot is 1971, ratio is 8.69; March price is 17360, LME March is 2015, ratio is 11.54. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.60 with a profit of 177.81 [3] Cross - period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 560, - 420, - 420, - 450 respectively, theoretical spreads are 596, 1090, 1593, 2096 [4] - **Zinc**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 125, - 90, - 65, - 20 respectively, theoretical spreads are 220, 346, 472, 598 [4] - **Aluminum**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 25, 0, 30, 65 respectively, theoretical spreads are 226, 353, 479, 606 [4] - **Lead**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 40, 45, 55, 50 respectively, theoretical spreads are 212, 319, 427, 534 [4] - **Nickel**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 2450, 2650, 2930, 3220 respectively [4] - **Tin**: 5 - 1 spread is - 3570, theoretical spread is 6744 [4] Spot - futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 15, - 545 respectively, theoretical spreads are 327, 790 [4] - **Zinc**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 90, - 35 respectively, theoretical spreads are 124, 259 [4] - **Zinc (repeated data)**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 90, - 35 respectively, theoretical spreads are 204, 335 [5] - **Lead**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货, 次月合约 - 现货 are 165, 205 respectively, theoretical spreads are 150, 264 [5] Cross - variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 4.22, 4.29, 5.67, 0.98, 1.32, 0.74 in Shanghai and 3.98, 4.15, 6.18, 0.96, 1.49, 0.65 in London [5]

s 加安期货 周度变化 3 33 73 -24 -7 6 27 25920 -17219 4080 #N/A 40 30 60 100 #N/A 2025 -200 -300 2019 2022 2024 2021 2020 2023 2025 2019 2021 2024 2025 2022 2023 2020 BU02-03 BU03-06 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 7/1 8/1 5/1 6/1 3/1 4/1 4/1 5/1 -20 -20 -40 -40 -60 -60 -80 -80 r -100 -100 2019 2024 2021 2022 2023 2025 2020 2019 2025 2020 -2021 -2022 2023 - 2024 BU主力合约 BU远期结构 5000 3060 4500 3040 3020 4000 3000 2980 3500 2960 3000 2940 MAR NA 2920 W 2500 2900 3/1 4/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 5/1 6/1 BU0 ...

Group 1: Corn - The market sentiment is relatively weak due to the targeted auction policy, with prices in the southern ports declining. However, farmers in the production areas are still reluctant to sell, resulting in limited supply and firm spot prices in the origin[1]. - The basis has strengthened recently, and the trade from the origin to the port remains inverted. With low downstream inventories, post - New Year seasonal restocking may drive up corn prices[1]. - In the long - term, focus on structural changes, import policies, and domestic auction policies due to the supply gap[1]. Group 2: Starch - In the short - term, the slowdown in deep - processing destocking and weak downstream restocking have led to weak starch quotes. The industry is expected to use price - for - volume strategies to destock before the Spring Festival[2]. - Due to limited raw material cost reduction, the price adjustment space for starch is also limited. After New Year's Day, with the year - end stocking season, starch prices are expected to rise slightly[2]. - In the long - term, downstream consumption rhythm is the key factor for price trends, and post - season inventory destocking will determine starch pricing[2]. Group 3: Sugar - In the short - term, the supply pressure of raw sugar has decreased, and the futures pricing can refer to domestic sugar production costs and spot prices[3]. - In the long - term, if the global sugar surplus increases, the futures price will seek the cost of out - of - quota imports[3]. - Attention should be paid to weather risks and policy changes[3]. Group 4: Cotton - The low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. Future consumption is the main focus[4]. - With the expansion of domestic textile production, good profits, and favorable tariff policies after the Sino - US meeting, cotton demand is expected to improve next year, making long - term long positions suitable[4]. Group 5: Eggs - The inflection point of egg inventory has occurred, but the base is still high. The speed of inventory decline depends on the chicken culling rhythm[10]. - If chicken culling accelerates, it will speed up capacity reduction. If the spot price remains low before Laba Festival, farmers may cull chickens, which is beneficial to egg prices in the second quarter[10]. Group 6: Apples - The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple production areas is still light. Traders are less interested in purchasing from farmers, and low - price fruits are the main ones sold[15]. - High - quality apples maintain stable prices, while the prices of medium and low - quality apples have weakened. The downstream sales have improved slightly, and the inventory has decreased slightly[15]. - In the short - term, the futures price is expected to remain high and volatile. In the medium - term, due to competition from other fruits, the overall pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term[15]. Group 7: Pigs - After the New Year's Day holiday, demand has decreased, and the short - term sentiment has weakened. There may still be a supply - demand mismatch in January[15]. - Capacity reduction has improved long - term sentiment, but the improvement of long - term expectations depends on further production and inventory reduction in the near - term. Attention should be paid to factors such as slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies[15].

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 688.0 0.0 -1.0 -115.0 -82.0 25省终端可用天数 22.0 -0.6 2.1 1.1 4.4 秦皇岛5000 591.0 0.0 4.0 -112.0 -74.0 25省终端供煤 597.0 -6.4 -11.5 -43.0 -25.8 广州港5500 810.0 0.0 0.0 -45.0 -55.0 北方港库存 2562.0 -33.0 -151.0 -90.0 278.0 鄂尔多斯5500 495.0 0.0 0.0 -90.0 -65.0 北方锚地船舶 65.0 -7.0 -8.0 2.0 -13.0 大同5500 550.0 0.0 0.0 -85.0 -80.0 北方港调入量 134.0 15.4 19.7 -38.6 3.2 榆林6000 690.0 0.0 0.0 -42.0 -62.0 北方港吞吐量 165.7 18.2 22.5 26.4 27.8 榆林6200 745.0 0.0 0.0 -15.0 -35.0 CBCFI海运指数 640.6 6.0 36.5 -62.3 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy & Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: January 5, 2026 [3] Core Data Summary 1. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Data - BR主力合约(12): Price on December 31st was 11,520, with a daily change of -45 and a weekly change of -115 [4] - 持仓量 (Open Interest): 41,261 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 8,302 and a weekly decrease of 23,244 [4] - 成交量 (Trading Volume): 97,681 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 23,586 and a weekly decrease of 98,389 [4] - 仓単数量 (Warehouse Receipts): 23,490, no change on a daily or weekly basis [4] - 虚实比 (Ratio of Open Interest to Warehouse Receipts): 8.78 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 2 and a weekly decrease of 5 [4] Basis and Spread Data - 顺丁基差 (Butadiene Rubber Basis): -20 on December 31st, a daily increase of 45 and a weekly increase of 315 [4] - 02 - 03 Spread: -40 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly decrease of 35 [4] - 03 - 04 Spread: -20 on December 31st, a daily increase of 5 and a weekly decrease of 12 [4] - RU - BR Spread: 4,085 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly decrease of 60 [4] - NR - BR Spread: 1,105 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly decrease of 15 [4] Spot and Price Data - 山东市场价 (Shandong Market Price): 11,500 on December 31st, no daily change and a weekly increase of 200 [4] - 传化市场价 (Transfar Market Price): 11,450 on December 31st, no daily change and a weekly increase of 150 [4] - 齐鲁出厂价 (Qilu Factory Price): 11,500 on December 31st, no daily change and a weekly increase of 200 [4] - CFR东北亚 (CFR Northeast Asia): 1,415 on December 31st, no daily change and a weekly increase of 15 [4] - CFR东南亚 (CFR Southeast Asia): 1,635 on December 31st, no daily change and a weekly increase of 10 [4] Profit Data - 现货加工利润 (Spot Processing Profit): 523 on December 31st, a daily increase of 46 and a weekly decrease of 9 [4] - 进口利润 (Import Profit): -187 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 5 and a weekly increase of 97 [4] - 出口利润 (Export Profit): 794 on December 31st, a daily increase of 4 and a weekly decrease of 119 [4] 2. BD (Butadiene) Spot and Price Data - 山东市场价 (Shandong Market Price): 8,605 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 45 and a weekly increase of 205 [4] - 江苏市场价 (Jiangsu Market Price): 8,400 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly increase of 200 [4] - 扬子出厂价 (Yangzi Factory Price): 8,400 on December 31st, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 300 [4] Profit Data - 乙烯裂解利润 (Ethylene Cracking Profit): -33 on December 31st, a daily increase of 2 [4] - 碳四抽提利润 (C4 Extraction Profit): Data on December 31st is N/A [4] - 丁烯氧化脱氢利润 (Butylene Oxidative Dehydrogenation Profit): Data not provided [4] - 进口利润 (Import Profit): Data on December 31st is N/A [4] - 出口利润 (Export Profit): -1,301 on December 31st, a daily increase of 46 and a weekly increase of 588 [4] - 丁苯生产利润 (Styrene - Butadiene Rubber Production Profit): 1,038 on December 31st, a daily decrease of 88 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4] - ABS生产利润 (ABS Production Profit): Data on December 31st is N/A [4] - SBS生产利润 (SBS Production Profit): Data on December 31st is N/A [4] Data Sources - Mysteel, Wind [8]