2025年04月02日 星期三 商品期货早班车 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周二国际贵金属市场回落；消息面，市场等待特朗普最终关税内容。经济数据方面，美国 2 月职 位空缺 756.8 万人，预期 765.5 万人，前值为 776 万人；美国 3 月 ISM 制造业指数 49，不及预期的 49.5，2 月前值为 50.3。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银进口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存减少 7 吨至 1167 吨， 金交所白银库存上周增加 52 吨 1731 吨。伦敦 2 月库存减少 1056 吨至 22446 吨，主要流向美国。近期伦敦 市场白银可能再次出现挤仓，部分投资者认为银价相对金价低估而涌入白银市场。操作上，建议白银空单适 当控制仓位或者做多金银比。风险点：美国经济大幅衰退 基本金属 招商评论 | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱。基本面：美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 今年首次出现萎缩，劳动力市场温和放缓，2 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 月 JOLTS 职位空缺不及预期。市场依旧担心美国滞胀或者衰退风险。华东华南平水铜现货升水 5 ...

2025年4月1日 星期二 金融研究 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：3 月 日，A 股四大股指有所回调，其中上证指数下跌 0.46%，报收 点；深成 31 | | 3335.75 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指下跌 0.97%，报收 10504.33 点；创业板指下跌 1.15%，报收 2103.7 点；科创 0.66%， | 50 | 指数下跌 | | | 报收 1022.71 点。市场成交 12,433 亿元，较前日增加 983 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+0.58%)，家 | | | | | 用电器(+0.37%)，银行(+0.35%)涨幅居前；电力设备(-1.94%)，国防军工(-1.81%)，房地产(-1.8%) | | | | | 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IM>IF>IC，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,287/83/4,026。机构、主力、大 | | | | | 户、散户全天资金分别净流入 18.4、-63.5、-178.6、-63.8 亿元，分别变动-66.2、+82.7、+165.9、 | | | | 股指期货 | +124.5 亿 ...

2025年04月01日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周一国际贵金属市场回落；消息面，特朗普将于 4 月 2 日作出抉择并宣布相关关税政策的细节， 但且不包括豁免内容。经济数据方面，中国 3 月官方制造业 PMI 50.5，制造业扩张速度一年来最快。库存数 据方面，印度 2 月白银进口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存增加 17 吨至 1174 吨，金交所白银库存上周减 少 16 吨 1678 吨。伦敦 2 月库存减少 1056 吨至 22446 吨，主要流向美国。近期伦敦市场白银可能再次出现 挤仓，部分投资者认为银价相对金价低估而涌入白银市场。操作上，建议白银空单适当控制仓位或者做多金 银比。风险点：美国经济大幅衰退 基本金属 招商评论 | | 市场表现：昨日铜价继续走弱。基本面：3 月 中国电解铜产量环比增加 6.39 万吨，升幅为 6.04%，同 | | | | SMM | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the stock index futures market, short - term sector rotation and uncertainties in US bilateral policies may increase spot market volatility. It is recommended to take short - term profit on IC and IM due to intensified high - level gaming, and to allocate IF at low prices as its valuation is still low [2]. - In the bond futures market, the recent tightness in short - term funds has eased. With frequent macro - side changes, if the economy continues to recover with policy support, long - term interest rates are expected to rise further [2]. 3. Summary by Directory (1) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows a divergence in the economic fundamentals' prosperity recently. The prosperity of the real estate and infrastructure sectors is weak, while that of the manufacturing sector has slightly improved [3]. (2) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On March 28, the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.67% to 3351.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.57% to 10607.33 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 0.79% to 2128.21 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 1.07% to 1029.48 points. Market turnover was 1.145 trillion yuan, a decrease of 71.7 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, media (+0.44%), non - bank finance (-0.01%), and non - ferrous metals (-0.17%) led the gains, while basic chemicals (-2.48%), petroleum and petrochemicals (-1.71%), and commercial retail (-1.6%) led the losses [2]. - Regarding the strength of the market, IH > IF > IC > IM. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 940, 111, and 4345 respectively. Institutional, main - force, large - investor, and retail - investor funds had net inflows of 8.46 billion, - 14.62 billion, - 34.45 billion, and - 18.83 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 7.78 billion, - 19.58 billion, - 21.06 billion, and - 11.64 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 106.32, 85.23, 9.77, and - 3.46 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 13.25%, - 11.26%, - 1.95%, and 1.01% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 12%, 6%, 38%, and 56% respectively. Currently, the discount of small - and medium - cap stock indexes is still large, and although the futures - spot price difference has recovered, it remains at a low level [2]. (3) Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On March 28, most bond futures weakened. The 2 - year bond futures remained flat at 102.45 points, the 5 - year bond futures fell 0.04% to 105.65 points, the 10 - year bond futures dropped 0.08% to 107.88 points, and the 30 - year bond futures fell 0.49% to 116 points [2]. - For the current active 2506 contract, the CTD bonds of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bond futures were 240024.IB, 240014.IB, 220003.IB, and 210005.IB respectively. Their yield changes were - 2bps, - 1.75bps, - 0.25bps, and + 1.75bps respectively, with corresponding net bases of - 0.058, 0.031, 0.031, and 0.435, and IRRs of 2.31%, 1.91%, 1.91%, and 0.58% respectively. Currently, short - term bonds have high IRR and low basis, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities [2]. - In terms of the money supply, the central bank injected 78.5 billion yuan and withdrew 93 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 14.5 billion yuan [2].

期货研究报告 | 商品研究 关税即将落地，风险偏好下降 ——20250330招商期货基本金属周报 2025年03月30日 • 研究员-马芸 • mayun@cmschina.com.cn • 联系电话：18682466799 • 资格证号： Z0018708 目录 01 周度回顾 本周观点 02 品种分析：铜氧化铝铝锌铅锡 03 2 01 周度回顾 3 周度回顾 5 周度观点 6 | | | 伦铜指数 | 伦铝指数 | 伦锌指数 | 伦铅指数 | 伦镍指数 | 伦锡指数 | | 沪铜指数 | 沪铝指数 | 沪锌指数 | 沪铅指数 | 沪镍指数 | 沪锡指数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 过去一年 | | 8.7% | 7.4% | 15.3% | 0.2% | -3.8% | 30.5% | 过去一年 | 6.3% | 2.0% | 9.3% | 6.0% | -3.8% | 20.2% | | 过去一月 | | 4.3% | -3.5% | 1.8 ...

2025年03月31日 星期一 商品期货早班车 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 市场表现：周五铜价震荡偏弱。基本面：临近关税落地时间，前期多头盈利了结，呈现减仓下行。供应端， 1500-2500 | | | | | 铜矿紧张格局延续，TC 来到-24 美金。铜矿紧张伴随冶炼减产传导到精铜。需求端，当期精废价差在 | | | | | 元之间，废铜替代效应提升。交易策略：铜自身基本面依然向好，关注关税落地后交易机会，暂时观望。风 | | | | | 险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | 市场表现：周五氧化铝 2505 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.69%，收于 3035 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 71 元/吨，美 | | | | | 金价格 美元/吨。 | 377 | | | 氧 | 基本面：供应方面，部分氧化铝厂压产和检修，运行产能下降。需求方面，电解铝厂生产较为稳定。 | | | | 化 | 交易策略：氧化铝厂减产和检修增多，运行产能阶段性下降。但新投产能陆续投产达产（广西某厂二期 | | 100 | | | 万吨基本 ...

金融研究 2025年3月28日 星期五 股指期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅% | 现价 | 涨跌 | 总量 | 总金额 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | 结算价 | 基差 | 基差年化 收益率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 中证 | | | | | | | | | | | | IC2504 | | 0.22 | 5922.2 | 12.8 | 52431 | 6194327 | 75832 | 4103 | 5924.6 | 35.4 | -9.3 | | | 2504 | | | | | | | | | | | | IC2505 | 中证 2505 | 0.22 | 5881.6 | 13.0 | 4367 | 512581 | 5396 | 1451 | 5888.2 | 76.0 | -9.7 | | | 中证 | | | | | | | | | | | | IC2506 | 2506 | 0.20 | 5819.0 | 11.8 | 38074 | 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies of various commodities including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping. Different commodities have different market trends and trading suggestions based on their supply - demand situations and other factors [1][2][3][6][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market price declined significantly. Concerns about US tariffs and profit - taking led to the price drop. Supply of copper ore remains tight. Suggested to wait for a new buying point [1]. - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum may show a volatile and upward - biased trend as it enters the traditional consumption season and downstream demand recovers. Recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Alumina**: Some producers are in cash - cost loss, and the number of maintenance cases is increasing. It is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Expected to be weak in the short - term. Consider shorting on rebounds and pay attention to the support level around 9500 yuan [1]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is still tight. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. Black Industries - **Rebar**: The spot demand is at a low level, and the futures valuation is high. Suggested to wait and see or short the 05 contract. Hold short positions in the 05 contract rebar - iron ore ratio [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand situation is marginally neutral, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains. The valuation is slightly high. Suggested to wait and see and hold short positions in the 05 contract rebar - iron ore ratio [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term US soybeans are expected to be weak. The domestic soybean and soybean meal are expected to have large arrivals, and the spot basis is weakening. The overall trend is weakening [3]. - **Corn**: Due to the pressure of grain sales, the futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [3]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil is expected to be weak in the short - term and show a positive spread pattern. Pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [3]. - **Sugar**: Indian production may be lower than consumption, and domestic sugar prices are rising strongly. Suggested to short the 05 contract of Zhengzhou sugar lightly, conduct a 5 - 9 reverse spread, and sell call options [3]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton price has fluctuations, and the domestic cotton price is in a narrow - range shock. Pay attention to macro events and new - crop planting intentions [3]. - **Logs**: The price is under downward pressure but supported by housing construction demand. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the July delivery [3]. - **Eggs**: Supply is increasing, and demand is boosted by festivals, but high inventory may lead to weak prices. The futures price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. - **Pigs**: Second - fattening and frozen - product enterprises support the price, and the supply is postponed. The futures price is expected to be strong [5]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile and weak. Suggested to short on rallies. In the long - term, short the far - month contracts on rallies as new devices are put into operation [6]. - **PVC**: The valuation is low, and the futures are at a large premium. Suggested to hedge at high points [6]. - **Glass**: The demand is seasonally recovering, but the sustainability is to be observed. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **PP**: In the medium - term, short the profit spread on rallies. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile and weak, and pay attention to new device production progress [6]. - **Crude Oil**: The price shows a volatile and upward - biased trend. Suggested to pay attention to the SC positive spread [7]. - **Styrene**: In the short - term, it follows the cost (pure benzene) and shows a positive spread. In the medium - term, there may be opportunities to buy on dips [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand is healthy but lacks obvious drivers. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to continue to decline [7]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The freight rate center may rise as demand recovers. Recommended to buy the 06 contract on dips and conduct a 6 - 10 positive spread [8].

金融研究 2025年3月27日 星期四 股指期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅% | 现价 | 涨跌 | 总量 | 总金额 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | 结算价 | 基差 | 基差年化 收益率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IC2504 | 中证 | 0.10 | 5895.8 | 5.6 | 46238 | 5472795 | 71729 | -2021 | 5909.4 | 52.7 | -13.0 | | | 2504 | | | | | | | | | | | | IC2505 | 中证 2505 | 0.13 | 5858.8 | 7.8 | 2838 | 333641 | 3945 | 758 | 5868.6 | 89.7 | -11.1 | | IC2506 | 中证 2506 | 0.15 | 5795.0 | 8.8 | 32432 | 3771365 | 99396 | -647 | 5807.2 | 153.5 | -11.1 | | IC ...

2025年03月27日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周三国际贵金属市场震荡；消息面，特朗普加税计划继续发酵，其宣布对非美国造汽车征收 25% 关税；圣路易安娜联储主席表示关税对通胀的影响或非暂时，关注通胀预期；芝加哥联储主席如果通胀预期 失控，美联储可能需要优先实现价格稳定目标，而非兼顾就业目标。经济数据方面，2 月美国耐用品订单意外 上涨 0.9%，核心耐用品订单增速创近两年新高；英国 2 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.8%，低于前值和预期。库存数据 方面，印度 2 月白银进口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存周五增加 10 吨至 1158 吨，金交所白银库存上周 减少 16 吨 1678 吨。伦敦 2 月库存减少 1056 吨至 22446 吨，主要流向美国。近期伦敦市场白银可能再次出 现挤仓，部分投资者认为银价相对金价低估而涌入白银市场。操作上，建议白银空单适当控制仓位或者做多 金银比。风险点：美国经济大幅衰退 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 市场表现：昨日铜价冲高回落。基本面：虽然有两个大冶炼厂减产，铁朗普再度强调加 ...