1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, due to the rumored cancellation of export tax - rebate policies for photovoltaic modules and increased export demand leading to inventory depletion, it is advised to wait and see [2]. - For basic metals, copper lacks a clear short - term driver and should be treated with a range - bound trading idea. Aluminum may face short - term downward pressure due to tariff policies, but its price may rise in the long - term. Alumina is expected to trade in a wide range, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 3150 in the short - term and go long at low prices in the long - term [2][4]. - For black industries, steel, iron ore, and coking coal markets are expected to be weak and volatile this week. It is recommended to try a reverse spread for rebar 10/1, and mainly wait and see for iron ore and coking coal [6]. - In the agricultural products market, short - term US soybeans are strong but within a trading range. Corn futures are expected to trade sideways after continuous declines. Sugar futures are recommended to go short at high prices. Cotton is recommended to be bought at low prices. Palm oil is still recommended for long - term allocation. Eggs and hogs futures are advised to wait and see [7][9]. - For energy and chemical products, LLDPE and PP are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term. PVC, glass, and soda ash are advised to wait and see. Rubber is recommended to be bought at low prices with caution. Crude oil is recommended to go short at high prices near 510 yuan/barrel for the SC main contract. Styrene is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - **Market Performance**: Precious metals fluctuated on Friday, and the US - Russia talks showed no obvious results [3]. - **Fundamentals**: US retail sales increased in July, foreign investors' holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a record high, and consumer confidence unexpectedly declined. Gold and silver inventories in various regions changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see, and long at low prices in the long - term [4]. Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated strongly on Friday [2]. - **Fundamentals**: US inflation expectations rose, consumer confidence was weaker than expected, the US dollar index weakened, and the domestic stock market reached a new high. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and the current demand was seasonally weak [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Treat with a range - bound trading idea in the short - term [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract on Friday increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 35 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price may face downward pressure due to tariff policies, and the long - term price may rise as the demand in the peak season is expected [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract on Friday decreased by 0.66% compared to the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 60 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina continued to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Alumina is expected to trade in a wide range, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 3150 in the short - term and go long at low prices in the long - term [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 11 contract closed at 8805 yuan/ton on Friday, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 2763 lots [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased slightly last week, social inventory decreased slightly, and warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly. The demand for polysilicon increased slightly, the output of silicone was flat, and the demand for aluminum alloy entered the off - season [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The trading logic is related to "anti - involution" varieties, and the demand has improved marginally. It is recommended to wait and see as the market is expected to be volatile [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 closed at 86,900 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1,600 yuan (+1.9%) [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The mining end of Jiaxiaowo stopped production, which will affect the monthly supply of 8000 tons of lithium carbonate from August to October. The demand for lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials is in the peak season, and the inventory decreased last week [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The current price is expected to be around 85,000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long with a small position at low prices [4]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 11 contract closed at 52740 yuan/ton on Friday, up 2310 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 10966 lots [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. The production schedule of silicon wafers and battery cells in August was in line with expectations, and the photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter was pessimistic [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long with a light position on pullbacks [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices fluctuated strongly on Friday [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore remained tight, the current supply - demand was weak, and the market focused on the resumption of production in Wa State. The global visible inventory decreased by 210 tons last week [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Treat with a range - bound trading idea [4][5]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2510 contract traded sideways and closed at 3197 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of building materials is slightly weak, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply of plates is stable, and the inventory is at a low level. The overall supply - demand of steel is balanced, but there is a significant structural differentiation [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try a reverse spread for rebar 10/1, and the reference range for RB10 is 3150 - 3220 [6]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2601 contract traded sideways and closed at 782.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of iron ore is slightly strong but weakening marginally. The iron - making water output increased, and the steel mill's profit decreased marginally. The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal norm [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see mainly, and the reference range for I09 is 750 - 800 [6]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2601 contract rose and closed at 1250 yuan/ton, up 21.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water output decreased slightly, and the steel mill's profit decreased marginally. The fifth round of coke price increase was implemented, and the sixth round was partially implemented. The inventory at different links is differentiated, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose but improving [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see mainly, and try to short the coking coal 2509 contract. The reference range for JM01 is 1200 - 1270 [6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose on Friday, digesting the short - term improvement in supply - demand [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The near - term US soybean production decreased, while the long - term South American production is expected to increase. The demand in South America is decreasing, and there is a divergence in the export demand for new US soybeans [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term US soybeans are strong but within a trading range. Domestic soybeans follow the international cost side [7]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn 2509 contract continued to be weak, and the spot price of corn decreased in the Northeast and increased in the North China [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Wheat has a high cost - performance ratio and substitutes for corn in feed demand. The import of grains increases the market supply, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low. The new - crop corn cost decreases, suppressing the long - term price [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Corn futures are expected to trade sideways after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The ICE raw sugar 10 contract closed at 16.47 cents/pound, with a weekly increase of 1.23%. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5656 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.63% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, Brazil's production dominates the raw sugar price. Domestically, the import of sugar pressured the spot price last week, but the price stabilized this week. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rebounded slightly and is expected to be weak and volatile in the future [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short at high prices in the futures market and sell call options [9]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The US cotton futures price fell on Friday, and the international crude oil price continued to weaken [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the drought - affected area in the US cotton - growing region increased. Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose, and recent data adjustments were positive for cotton prices [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices, with a trading strategy based on the range of 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton [9]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose on Friday due to good short - term exports [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply in Malaysia is in the seasonal growth cycle, and the demand has improved. The near - term inventory is increasing, while the long - term supply is expected to be tight [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Allocate more in palm oil, trading on the long - term tight supply expectation. Pay attention to the production in the producing areas and the biodiesel policy [9]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2510 contract was weak, and the spot price rose [9]. - **Fundamentals**: High temperatures led to a seasonal decline in the egg - laying rate of hens. The demand from food factories is expected to increase seasonally. The supply is sufficient, and the cost has decreased [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Eggs futures are expected to trade sideways after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Hogs - **Market Performance**: The hog 2511 contract was weak, and the spot price of hogs decreased slightly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Consumption is gradually recovering, but the supply is sufficient due to increased slaughter in August. Pay attention to the impact of banquets at the end of the month and school - opening purchases, as well as policy trends [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term downward space for the spot price is limited after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see for futures [9]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The main contract closed at 8188 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly increase of 1.37%. The apple price in Yantai, Shandong was stable [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of early - maturing apples has declined, but high - quality fruits in some areas are still expensive. The current futures market has little contradiction and is expected to trade sideways [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuated slightly on Friday. The spot price in North China was 7220 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The overseas price was stable, and the import window was closed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply increased due to new plant commissioning and the resumption of maintenance plants. The import is expected to decrease slightly. The demand for agricultural mulch is improving, while other areas' demand is stable [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term: The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the upside is limited by the import window. Long - term: Short far - month contracts at high prices as the supply - demand pattern will be loose [10]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The v01 contract closed at 5118, up 0.1% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot trading of PVC is average, and the driving force is unclear. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is average. The social inventory has accumulated [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. Rubber - **Market Performance**: The rubber price fluctuated strongly last week, and the RU2601 contract rose 0.7% and closed at 15905 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The purchase price of Thai glue was stable. The spot price increased, and the trading was light. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly, while that of all - steel tires increased [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply is affected by various factors, and the fundamentals are strong. It is recommended to buy at low prices with caution [10]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG01 contract closed at 1232, up 1% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The glass spot price continued to decline, and the production cut expectation is hard to verify. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the inventory has accumulated [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The supply - demand is weak, but the downside is limited. Wait and see [11]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract fluctuated slightly on Friday. The spot price in East China was 7020 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The overseas price decreased slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is increasing due to the resumption of maintenance plants and new plant commissioning. The demand is improving as the peak season approaches [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term: The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the upside is limited by the import window. Long - term: Short far - month contracts at high prices as the supply - demand pattern will be loose [11]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Crude oil prices fell slightly on Friday due to the progress of the US - Russia talks and the statement that the US will not impose tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil for the time being [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, with OPEC+ planning to increase production in September and other countries also having production increases. The demand in the US is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the refinery operating rate is at a high level [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short at high prices near 510 yuan/barrel for the SC main contract as the short - term supply shortage risk has decreased [11]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract fluctuated slightly on Friday. The spot price in East China was 7280 yuan/ton, and the trading atmosphere was average. The overseas price was stable, and the import window was closed [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene is expected to increase slightly in August. The downstream enterprises are still suffering losses, and the finished - product inventory is high but decreasing. The demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term: The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the upside is limited by the import window. Long - term: Short far - month contracts at high prices as the supply will increase [11]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The sa01 contract closed at 1400, down 0.5% [12]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of soda ash declined, and the production cut expectation still exists. The supply is increasing as the summer maintenance is coming to an end, and the inventory is high. The downstream demand for photovoltaic glass is stable [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation still exists [12].

Report Summary on Financial Futures 1. Market Performance - On August 15, A-share's four major stock indexes all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.83% to 3696.77 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.6% to 11634.67 points, the ChiNext Index up 2.61% to 2534.22 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 1.43% to 1101.29 points. Market trading volume was 2272.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.4 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, comprehensive (+3.92%), non-bank finance (+3.16%), and power equipment (+2.85%) led the gains; banks (-1.46%), food and beverage (+0.04%), and media (+0.51%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4623/155/641 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net inflows in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 12.3 billion, - 10 billion, - 18.7 billion, and 16.3 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +37.8 billion, +18.9 billion, - 24.9 billion, and - 31.8 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 31.3, 37.57, - 7.05, and - 13.52 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 4.23%, - 5.5%, 1.61%, and 4.59% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 70%, 44%, 76%, and 97% respectively [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. Currently, using stock index as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - **Cash Bond Situation**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures CTD bond (250006.IB), the yield change was +0bps, the corresponding net basis was 0.03, and the IRR was 1.15%; for the 5 - year (240020.IB), the yield change was +1bps, the net basis was - 0.001, and the IRR was 1.49%; for the 10 - year (220010.IB), the yield change was +1.25bps, the net basis was - 0.027, and the IRR was 1.78%; for the 30 - year (210005.IB), the yield change was +1.75bps, the net basis was - 0.062, and the IRR was 2% [4]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 238 billion yuan and withdrew 122 billion yuan, with a net injection of 116 billion yuan [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [4]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent social activity sentiment is weak [11]. - Based on the comparison of domestic meso - level data with the same period in the past five years, the manufacturing, real estate, social activity, infrastructure, and import - export sectors are analyzed. Positive scores indicate an improvement in sentiment, negative scores indicate a weakening, and zero scores indicate little change [13][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate various risk varieties of stock index futures on dips [3] - With the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium and long term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On August 14, the four major A-share stock indexes adjusted, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.46% to 3666.44 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.87% to 11451.43 points, the ChiNext Index down 1.08% to 2469.66 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 0.75% to 1085.74 points. The market turnover was 23,063 billion yuan, an increase of 131.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Non-bank finance led the gains, while comprehensive, national defense and military industry, and communication led the losses. In terms of market strength, IH > IF > IC > IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 734/41/4644 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large, and retail funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were -25.4 billion, -28.9 billion, 6.2 billion, and 48.1 billion yuan respectively, with changes of -33.1 billion, -19 billion, +18.5 billion, and +33.5 billion yuan respectively [2] Stock Index Futures - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next-month contracts was 47.29, 49.65, 9.51, and -0.13 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -6.28%, -7.15%, -2.11%, and 0.04% respectively, and three-year historical quantiles of 57%, 31%, 37%, and 45% respectively [3] - On August 14, the yields of treasury bond futures rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two-year bond was 1.411, up 1.33 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five-year bond was 1.583, up 1.57 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten-year bond was 1.679, up 1.74 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty-year bond was 2.056, up 2.33 bps [3] Treasury Bond Futures - The CTD bond of the 2-year treasury bond futures was 250006.IB, with a yield change of +0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.021, and an IRR of 1.22%; the CTD bond of the 5-year treasury bond futures was 240020.IB, with a yield change of +1.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.031, and an IRR of 1.11%; the CTD bond of the 10-year treasury bond futures was 250007.IB, with a yield change of +0.9 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.016, and an IRR of 1.27%; the CTD bond of the 30-year treasury bond futures was 210005.IB, with a yield change of +2.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of -0.104, and an IRR of 2.29% [4] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 128.7 billion yuan and withdrew 160.7 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 32 billion yuan [4] Economic Data - High-frequency data shows that the recent import and export and social activity prosperity have declined [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies for various commodities across different sectors including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. The overall view is that different commodities face diverse supply - demand situations, and trading strategies vary from commodity to commodity, with many suggesting a wait - and - see approach due to uncertainties [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market showed weak oscillations. Fundamental factors such as dollar rebound and commodity sentiment cooling pressured the price. Trading strategy is to temporarily hold off [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2509 contract price decreased. Supply capacity increased slightly, while demand had no obvious improvement. With Fed's potential rate - cut and consumption season factors, it's advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract price dropped. Supply capacity was stable, and demand was high. It's in a stage of weak reality versus strong expectation, so it's recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2509 contract price fell, and inventory increased. Supply increment was significant, and consumption was in a deep - off - season. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies [1]. - **Lead**: The 2509 contract price declined. Supply was regionally differentiated, and consumption decreased due to high - temperature holidays. It's better to wait for inventory reduction or production cut signals [1][2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 11 - contract price rose. Supply increased, and demand showed marginal improvement. The market may have wide - range oscillations, so it's recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2511 contract price increased. Supply might be in short - term shortage, and demand was strong. Short - term oscillations are expected, and long - term, it may rise if supply doesn't improve, so small - position long - entry on dips can be considered [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The 11 - contract price fell. Supply might increase, and demand had no significant change. The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Tin**: The price showed weak oscillations. Market sentiment and dollar factors pressured the price. It's expected to oscillate in a range in the short - term [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract price dropped. Building material demand decreased, and supply - demand was balanced with structural differences. The 2510 short - position should be closed, and the price is expected to be in the 3150 - 3220 yuan/ton range [3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2601 contract price declined. Iron - water production increased, and supply - demand was slightly strong. The 2601 short - position should be closed, and the price is expected to be in the 750 - 800 yuan/ton range [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2601 contract price fell. Iron - water production decreased slightly, and supply - demand was relatively loose. The 2601 short - position should be closed, and the price is expected to be in the 1200 - 1270 yuan/ton range [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fell. Supply was proximally loose and distally tight, and demand had differences. Short - term, US soybeans are strong within an oscillating range, and domestic prices follow international costs [5]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract was weak. Wheat substitution, import increase, and new - crop cost reduction pressured the price. Futures are expected to oscillate after a decline [5]. - **Sugar**: The 01 contract price decreased. Brazilian production increased, and domestic supply pressured the price. Futures should be shorted, and call options should be sold [5][6]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. US export increased, and Brazilian production rose while Indian planting decreased. It's advisable to buy on dips and trade within the 14000 - 14300 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Log**: The 09 contract price dropped. Spot prices rose, and the market is expected to fluctuate around 800 yuan/cubic meter in the short - term [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices fell. Supply was in a seasonal increase, and demand had mixed trends. Fats and oils are still recommended for long - allocation, focusing on production and policies [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2510 contract was weak. Supply was sufficient, and demand might increase seasonally. Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2511 contract declined. Consumption was seasonally weak, and supply would increase. Pig prices are expected to decline in the medium - term [6][7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price dropped slightly. Supply increased, and demand improved in some areas. Short - term oscillations are expected to be weak, and long - term, short - entry on rallies for far - month contracts is recommended [8]. - **PVC**: The V01 contract price fell. Supply would increase, and demand was average with inventory accumulation. It's recommended to wait and see [8]. - **PTA**: PX supply was high, and PTA supply decreased. Polyester demand recovered. PX is recommended to wait and see, and PTA can be shorted on rallies in the long - term [8]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract price decreased. Raw material prices were stable, and tire production had mixed trends. It's advisable to buy on dips [8]. - **Glass**: The fg01 contract price fell. Supply might increase, and demand was weak with inventory accumulation. It's recommended to wait and see [11]. - **PP**: The main contract price dropped. Supply increased, and demand was differentiated. Short - term oscillations are expected to be weak, and long - term short - entry on rallies for far - month contracts is recommended [11]. - **MEG**: Supply decreased, and inventory was low. Polyester demand recovered. It's recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The price rebounded. Supply pressure would increase, and demand was stable. It's advisable to short on rallies around 510 yuan/barrel [11]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract price dropped. Supply might increase, and demand was under pressure. Short - term oscillations are expected to be weak, and long - term short - entry on rallies for far - month contracts is recommended [11][12]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract price fell. Supply was high with inventory increase, and demand from photovoltaic glass was weak. It's recommended to wait and see [12].

Group 1 - The overall commodity market is on a downward trend, with specific indices showing varied performance: precious metals index up by 2.94%, black index up by 1.76%, and energy index down by 2.11% [2][6] - The CTA strategies have shown slight increases, with the short-term strategy index up by 0.16% and the long-term strategy index up by 0.09% [2][34] - The report indicates that the CTA allocation window is gradually opening, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a potential shift in domestic policies [2][39] Group 2 - The market environment for short-term strategies is neutral to favorable, with high intraday liquidity and a decrease in volatility [39][40] - The long-term strategy environment is also neutral to favorable, with a high trend smoothness but a rise in volatility [39][44] - The majority of style factors have shown positive returns, particularly in agricultural products and black metals [47][51] Group 3 - The average trading volume in the commodity futures market is at 1.84 trillion yuan, indicating a decrease, while the average open interest remains stable at 2.33 trillion yuan [12][10] - In the stock index futures market, the average trading volume is 0.46 trillion yuan, also showing a decrease, with the average open interest at 1.11 trillion yuan [19][17] - The bond futures market shows a slight increase in net value and volatility, with the average trading volume at 0.38 trillion yuan [28][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, and recommend buying long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. - For bond futures, with the upward risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On August 13th, the four major A - share stock indexes all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to 3683.46 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.76% to 11551.36 points, the ChiNext Index rose 3.62% to 2496.5 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.74% to 1077.7 points. Market turnover was 2.1752 trillion yuan, an increase of 270 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, communication (+4.91%), non - ferrous metals (+2.37%), and electronics (+2.01%) led the gains, while banks (-1.06%), coal (-0.81%), and food and beverages (-0.42%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IF>IH, and the number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2730, 233, and 2456 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had net inflows of 7.6 billion, - 9.9 billion, - 12.3 billion, and 14.6 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +16.5 billion, +4.4 billion, - 11.1 billion, and - 9.8 billion yuan respectively [2]. - On August 13th, the yields of bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.398, a decrease of 2.13 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.564, a decrease of 1.33 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.662, a decrease of 0.75 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.038, a decrease of 0.76 bps [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 62.53, 56.3, 5.78, and - 5.82 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 7.9%, - 7.72%, - 1.24%, and 1.85% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 49%, 25%, 46%, and 70% respectively [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy, and it is recommended to buy long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3]. 3.3 Bond Futures - **Cash Bond Situation**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. For the 2 - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.01, and an IRR of 1.35%; for the 5 - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, with a yield change of - 1.35 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.006, and an IRR of 1.39%; for the 10 - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.008, and an IRR of 1.37%; for the 30 - year bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 1 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.008, and an IRR of 1.5% [4]. - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 118.5 billion yuan and withdrew 138.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: With the upward risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [4]. 3.4 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent import and export and social activity sentiment have declined [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, China's credit data, and supply - demand relationships in different industries. Different trading strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their specific fundamentals[2][3][4][6][7][8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: Precious metals rebounded slightly on Wednesday, and market expectations for interest - rate cuts increased[2]. - Fundamentals: There are expectations of an early Fed rate cut, possible changes in the Fed chair appointment, geopolitical tensions, and changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions[2]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest going long on gold due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic; suggest temporarily observing silver due to inventory reduction and possible policy changes[2]. Basic Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The electrolytic aluminum 2509 contract closed +0.27% higher at 20790 yuan/ton; the alumina 2509 contract closed - 2.36% lower at 3230 yuan/ton[3]. - Fundamentals: For electrolytic aluminum, supply capacity increased slightly while demand had no obvious improvement; for alumina, supply capacity was stable and demand came from high - load electrolytic aluminum production[3]. - Trading Strategy: For electrolytic aluminum, suggest observing as the price may fall after the positive sentiment fades; for alumina, suggest holding long positions and observing for non - participants[3]. Zinc - Market Performance: The zinc 2509 contract closed - 0.13% lower at 22,600 yuan/ton, and social inventory increased[3][4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased significantly, processing fees rose, and consumption was in the off - season with开工 rates dropping[4]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest selling short at high prices[4]. Lead - Market Performance: The lead 2509 contract closed +0.09% higher at 16,930 yuan/ton, and social inventory decreased[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply had regional differentiation, and consumption was affected by high - temperature holidays in the battery industry[4]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest observing and waiting for inventory reduction or production cut signals[4]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 11 contract closed at 8600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton, with increased positions and slightly increased warehouse receipts[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased with new furnaces opened, and demand had marginal improvement in some areas[4]. - Trading Strategy: Suggest observing as the price is expected to fluctuate widely[4]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main LC2511 contract closed at 85,100 yuan/ton, up +3.1%[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply may face shortages in the future, and demand is in the peak season. Inventory increased recently[4]. - Trading Strategy: In the short - term, suggest observing; in the long - term, suggest going long at low prices if supply shortages persist[4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 11 contract closed at 8600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton, with increased positions and slightly increased warehouse receipts[4]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased slightly, and demand was in a complex situation with mixed signals[4]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan, affected by policy news[4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3216 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton[6]. - Fundamentals: Building material supply - demand was neutral, and plate demand was stable. There was a significant structural differentiation[6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in rebar 2510, with a reference range of 3180 - 3240 yuan[6]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore 2601 contract closed at 796 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton[6]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand were neutral - strong, and the market had expectations of a Fed rate cut and China's credit data[6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in iron ore 2601, with a reference range of 770 - 810 yuan[6]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1236.5 yuan/ton, down 70.5 yuan/ton[6]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand was relatively loose but improving, and the futures were over - valued[6]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in coking coal 2601, with a reference range of 1200 - 1270 yuan[6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans continued to rise overnight[7]. - Fundamentals: Supply was loose in the near - term and tight in the long - term; demand had differences in the new US soybean crop[7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are strong in the short - term, and the domestic market follows the international cost[7]. Corn - Market Performance: The corn 2509 contract rebounded, and the spot price fell[7]. - Fundamentals: Wheat substitution, import auctions, and new - crop cost pressure affected the price[7][8]. - Trading Strategy: The futures are expected to rebound after continuous decline[8]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5664 yuan/ton, up 0.32%[8]. - Fundamentals: Brazilian production increased, and domestic prices were under pressure[8]. - Trading Strategy: Go short in the futures market and sell call options[8]. Cotton - Market Performance: The US cotton futures price fell overnight, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose[8]. - Fundamentals: International cotton growth progress and domestic data adjustment affected the price[8]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at low prices and use a range - trading strategy between 14,000 - 14,300 yuan/ton[8]. Logs - Market Performance: The log 09 contract closed at 813 yuan/cubic meter, down 1.39%[8]. - Fundamentals: Spot prices rose, and the market had expectations for the future, with short - term focus on delivery[8]. - Trading Strategy: Observe[8]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil continued to rise[8]. - Fundamentals: Supply was in the seasonal growth period, and demand was relatively weak, with inventory accumulation[8]. - Trading Strategy: It is strong in the short - term and recommended for long - term allocation, focusing on production and biodiesel policies[8]. Eggs - Market Performance: The egg 2509 contract fell, and the spot price was stable[8]. - Fundamentals: Supply was sufficient, and demand had seasonal changes, with cost moving down[8]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly[8]. Pigs - Market Performance: The live - hog 2511 contract declined, and the spot price rose[9]. - Fundamentals: Consumption was weak seasonally, and supply would increase in the short - and medium - term[9]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust[9]. Energy Chemical LLDPE - Market Performance: The LLDPE main contract oscillated slightly, with a weak basis and general market trading[10]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased domestically and decreased in imports, and demand improved in the agricultural film sector[10]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate weakly in the short - term and is recommended to short far - month contracts when prices are high in the long - term[10]. PVC - Market Performance: The v09 contract closed at 5000, down 0.7%[10]. - Fundamentals: Supply was expected to increase, demand was average, and inventory accumulated[10]. - Trading Strategy: Observe as the price has limited downside[10]. Rubber - Market Performance: The rubber price rose slightly and then fell, with inventory decreasing[10]. - Fundamentals: Overseas raw material prices provided support[10]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate strongly in the short - term[10]. Glass - Market Performance: The fg09 contract closed at 1060, down 1.6%[10]. - Fundamentals: Supply may increase slightly, inventory accumulated, and demand recovered seasonally but was still weak[10]. - Trading Strategy: Observe as the price has limited downside[10]. PP - Market Performance: The PP main contract oscillated slightly, with a weak basis and general market trading[11]. - Fundamentals: Supply increased, and demand was differentiated among industries[11]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate weakly in the short - term and is recommended to short far - month contracts when prices are high in the long - term[11]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices fell due to demand forecast cuts and inventory accumulation[11]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure increased, and demand had mixed signals[11]. - Trading Strategy: Look for opportunities to short the SC main contract around 520 yuan/barrel[11]. Styrene - Market Performance: The EB main contract oscillated slightly, with a general market trading atmosphere[11]. - Fundamentals: Supply may increase in the future, and demand was affected by export prospects[11]. - Trading Strategy: It may oscillate weakly in the short - term and is recommended to short far - month contracts when prices are high in the long - term[11]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The sa01 contract closed at 1390, down 0.8%[12]. - Fundamentals: Supply was operating normally with high inventory, and downstream demand was weak[12]. - Trading Strategy: Observe due to production - cut expectations[12].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy in the medium - to - long term, and recommend allocating long - term contracts of each variety on dips [1] - For bond futures, due to the upward risk appetite and economic recovery expectations, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts at high levels for the medium - to - long term [3] Summary by Directory (1) Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On August 12, A - share four major stock indexes all rose, with Shanghai Composite Index up 0.5% to 3665.92, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.53% to 11351.63, ChiNext Index up 1.24% to 2409.4, and Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index up 1.91% to 1069.81. Market trading volume was 19,052 billion yuan, an increase of 553 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+2.24%), electronics (+1.88%), and coal (+1.01%) led the gains; national defense and military industry (-1.03%), steel (-0.83%), and building materials (-0.46%) led the losses [1] - From the perspective of market strength, IH>IF>IC>IM, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,083/172/3,162 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail funds in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 89, - 143, - 12, and 244 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 207, - 97, + 160, and + 145 billion yuan respectively [1] - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 80.01, 75.56, 12.63, and - 2.59 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 9.91%, - 10.15%, - 2.63%, and 0.79%, and three - year historical quantiles of 37%, 15%, 34%, and 54% respectively [1] (2) Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On August 12, the yields of treasury bond futures rose across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.418, up 1.07bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.571, up 0.6bps; the ten - year bond was 1.665, up 0.83bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.044, up 1.7bps [2] - For the current active 2509 contract, the CTD bond of the two - year treasury bond futures was 250006.IB, with a yield change of + 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.027, and an IRR of 1.17%; the five - year was 240020.IB, with a yield change of + 0.85bps, a net basis of - 0.022, and an IRR of 1.66%; the ten - year was 250007.IB, with a yield change of + 1bps, a net basis of - 0.033, and an IRR of 1.79%; the thirty - year was 210005.IB, with a yield change of + 2.5bps, a net basis of - 0.127, and an IRR of 2.42% [2] (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent import/export and social activity sentiment has declined [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold; the long - term trend of industrial silver is downward, and it is advisable to consider short - selling silver on rallies [1][2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to remain volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see; for alumina, beware of callback risks; for zinc, short on rallies; for lead, wait and see; for lithium carbonate, wait and see due to high - volatility prices [2][3]. - For steel, try shorting the RB2510 contract; for iron ore, try shorting the I2601 contract; for coking coal, try shorting the JM2601 contract [4][5]. - For soybeans, the short - term is bullish, and domestic soybeans follow the international cost; for corn, the futures price is expected to be volatile and weak; for sugar, short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, buy on dips; for logs, wait and see; for palm oil, it is short - term bullish and medium - term long - biased; for eggs, the price is expected to be volatile; for pigs, the price is expected to be volatile and weak [6][7]. - For LLDPE, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for PVC, wait and see; for PTA, short - term look for positive spread opportunities and go short on processing fees or far - month contracts in the long - term; for rubber, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term; for glass, wait and see; for PP, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for MEG, wait and see; for crude oil, look for short - selling opportunities near 520 yuan/barrel; for EB, short - term is volatile and weak, and go short on far - month contracts on rallies in the long - term; for soda ash, wait and see [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Precious metals rebounded slightly on Tuesday, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts further increased [1]. - **Fundamentals**: US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected; core CPI growth reached the highest since February; the probability of a September interest rate cut rose to 95%. Trump considered suing Fed Chairman Powell, and Bisset hinted at a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September. US July tariff revenue reached a record high of $28 billion, a 273% year - on - year increase. The ten - month budget deficit as of July was $1.63 trillion. Domestic gold ETFs had capital outflows. COMEX gold inventory increased by 1 ton to 1201 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory remained at 36 tons. London's June gold inventory was 8774 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory remained at 1151 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 64 tons to 1304 tons last week. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 11 tons to 15752 tons, and London's June silver inventory increased by 421 tons to 23788 tons. India imported about 200 tons of silver in June. The world's largest silver ETF increased its holdings by 41 tons to 15099 tons [1]. - **Trading Strategies**: Go long on gold; consider short - selling silver on rallies [2]. Base Metals Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.24% to 20,685 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 15 yuan/ton. The LME price was $2607/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. Consumption showed no obvious improvement, and the weekly aluminum product开工 rate was stable [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see as prices are expected to remain volatile [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina contract increased by 3.67% to 3191 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 22 yuan/ton. On August 11, 30,000 tons were traded in Western Australia at a price of $365/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina was stable. Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Beware of callback risks as alumina is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the zinc contract increased by 0.18% to 22,630 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 55 yuan/ton, and overseas 0 - 3 month spread was in a 3.6 structure. The social inventory on August 11 was 11.92 million tons, an increase of 0.6 million tons from August 7 [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased significantly (August zinc ingot production was 621,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,000 tons), and processing fees soared, pushing refinery profits to over 1,500 yuan/ton. The consumption off - season deepened, and the galvanizing/die - casting开工 rate dropped to 56.77%/48.24%. Typhoons and Vietnam's tariffs dragged down exports. The seven - region zinc ingot social inventory increased to 113,200 tons (a weekly increase of 5,900 tons), but the LME inventory dropped below 85,000 tons, providing support [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the lead 2509 contract increased by 0.18% to 16,915 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 25 yuan/ton, and overseas 0 - 3 month spread was 36 dollars/ton. The social inventory on August 11 was 70,000 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from August 7 [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply showed regional differentiation. Environmental protection in Anhui suppressed the regenerated lead开工 rate to 41.11% (a weekly decrease of 3.26%), while the primary lead开工 rate was 67.4% (a weekly increase of 3.5%). High - temperature holidays in battery production led to a sharp drop in the five - province开工 rate to 65.25% (a weekly decrease of 6.61%), and battery prices were under pressure. The social inventory decreased to 71,100 tons (a weekly decrease of 1,800 tons), but the inventory digestion in regenerated lead plants was slow, and high waste battery costs (10,100 - 10,250 yuan/ton) suppressed profits [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see, waiting for signals of inventory reduction or regenerated lead production cuts [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 closed at 82,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 1620 yuan or 2.0% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week's production recovered to a new high of 19,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%. If the mining end of Ruoxiaowo stops production, it will affect the monthly supply of 8,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and supply - demand shortage is expected from August to October. In terms of demand, the peak production season of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials emerged in August, and the bidding capacity of energy storage systems in July had a remarkable growth rate. Last week, inventory increased due to supply restoration, and the sample inventory was 142,400 tons (an increase of 692 tons). Yesterday, the number of warehouse receipts increased to 20,829 (an increase of 1440) [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see due to high - volatility prices in the short - term [3]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The main RB2510 contract of steel rebounded after rising initially, closing at 3253 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The steel inventory in the Gangyin caliber increased by 1.5% to 4.17 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory in Hangzhou increased by 81,000 tons to 687,000 tons. The overall steel supply - demand was balanced, with no significant total - volume contradiction but obvious structural differentiation. The steel futures had a high discount, and the valuation continued to improve [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try shorting the RB2510 contract, with a reference range of 3220 - 3280 yuan/ton [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main I2601 contract of iron ore fluctuated sideways, closing at 795 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The shipment of Australia and Brazil in the Ganglian caliber decreased by 20,000 tons to 25.3 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival decreased by 510,000 tons to 25.72 million tons. The iron ore inventory increased by 1.33 million tons to 1.44 billion tons. The iron ore supply - demand remained moderately strong. The iron - making water production decreased slightly week - on - week but increased by 86,000 tons year - on - year. The fifth round of coke price increase was implemented, and the sixth round was proposed. The steel mill profits narrowed marginally, and future production would be stable. The supply was in line with seasonal rules, with a slight year - on - year decrease. The iron ore supply - demand was moderately strong, and inventory accumulation was expected to be slower than the seasonal rule [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try shorting the I2601 contract, with a reference range of 770 - 810 yuan/ton [4]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main JM2601 contract of coking coal rebounded after rising initially, closing at 1307 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan compared with the previous trading day's night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water production decreased by 4,000 tons week - on - week but increased by 86,000 tons year - on - year. The steel mill profits narrowed marginally, and future production would be stable. The fifth round of coke price increase was implemented, and there was no plan for the next increase. The inventory at each link was differentiated. The coking coal inventory and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants were at a relatively low level in the same period of history, while the inventory at mine mouths, ports, etc. continued to be at a record high. The production and mine - mouth inventory decreased month - on - month. The overall supply - demand was still relatively loose, but the fundamentals were improving. The futures were at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure remained. The futures valuation was high [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Try shorting the JM2601 contract, with a reference range of 1260 - 1330 yuan/ton [5]. Agricultural Products Soybeans - **Market Performance**: The overnight CBOT soybeans rose due to a positive USDA report [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, it was loose in the near - term, while the production and inventory of new US soybean crops were revised down in the long - term. In terms of demand, South America was dominant in the short - term, but there were still differences in the export demand of new US soybean crops [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The short - term US soybeans are bullish, digesting the positive report; domestic soybeans follow the international cost [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn 2509 contract rebounded, while the spot price of corn fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Wheat had a high cost - performance ratio and replaced the feed demand for corn. The weak wheat price suppressed the corn price. The auction of imported grains increased market supply, and the low transaction rate reflected weak market sentiment. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high. The easing of trade situation increased import expectations, and the approaching listing of early - spring corn and the significant decrease in the cost of new - crop corn suppressed the long - term price expectation. The spot price of corn was expected to be weak [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weak [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5640 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.91%. The basis of Guangxi spot - Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 300 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar after processing with additional tariffs was 436 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The double - week data of Brazil in July showed an increase in production, and the cumulative sugar - making ratio continued to reach a new high of 51.58%, with a double - week sugar - making ratio as high as 53.68%. The increasing production pressure in Brazil was gradually realized, and the raw sugar fluctuated at a low level. The domestic macro - sentiment cooled down, and the coastal sales area quotes dropped significantly this week, breaking below 6000 yuan/ton, indicating that the concentrated release of processed sugar was pressuring the spot. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract is expected to be weak and volatile in the future, and the 01 contract will be below 6700 yuan/ton in the long - term [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The overnight US cotton futures rose, while the international crude oil price fluctuated weakly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the August USDA data revised down the US cotton production and ending inventory, supporting the cotton price to stop falling and rebound. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to rise, and the August BCO data adjustment was positive for the cotton price. As of the end of July, the in - stock industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4600 tons from the previous month [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Buy on dips, with a trading strategy of range - bound trading between 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton [6]. Logs - **Market Performance**: The log 09 contract closed at 824.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decrease of 0.96%. As of August 8, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous week; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week; the spot price of 11.8 - meter spruce logs in Shandong was 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week; the spot price of 11.8 - meter spruce logs in Jiangsu was 1160 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous week [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of logs rose, and the market had expectations for the future log market. In July, it entered the delivery market, and there were varying degrees of length increases in deliveries in different regions. The valuation below 800 yuan/cubic meter was low. With the cooling of macro - sentiment, in the short - term, it would be mainly based on the delivery logic, fluctuating around 800 yuan/cubic meter [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait and see [7]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil rose, continuing to digest the positive report [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, the MPOB estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 7% month - on - month, in the seasonal production - increasing cycle. In terms of demand, the export in the production area decreased month - on - month, and the MPOB showed that Malaysia's palm oil export in July increased by 4% month - on - month. There was a short - term supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and inventory continued to accumulate but was lower than market expectations [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: It is short - term bullish and medium - term long - biased, trading on the expectation of tight annual supply of oils [7]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2509 contract rebounded, and the spot price was stable [7]. - **Fundamentals**: High temperatures led to a seasonal decline in the egg - laying rate of hens, and downstream food factories were gradually stocking up, with demand possibly increasing seasonally. There were more newly - hatched laying hens, and

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On August 11th, the four major A-share stock indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.34% to 3647.55 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.46% to 11291.43 points, the ChiNext Index up 1.96% to 2379.82 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 0.59% to 1049.73 points. Market turnover was 1.8499 trillion yuan, an increase of 113.6 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, power equipment (+2.04%), communication (+1.95%), and computer (+1.94%) led the gains, while banks (-1.01%), petroleum and petrochemicals (-0.41%), and coal (-0.35%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 4,185, 166, and 1,066 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 11.9 billion, -4.6 billion, -17.2 billion, and 9.9 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +24.8 billion, +17.4 billion, -19.1 billion, and -23.1 billion yuan respectively [2]. 2. Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 92.74, 92.96, 17.71, and 0.5 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of -11.13%, -12.12%, -3.58%, and -0.15% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 30%, 10%, 25%, and 43% respectively [3]. - The trading strategy is to maintain a long - term bullish view on the economy. Currently, using stock index futures as a long - position substitute has certain excess returns, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [3]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 11th, the yields of treasury bond futures all rose. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.4, up 1.06 bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.566, up 2.42 bps; the ten - year bond was 1.653, up 2.18 bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.022, up 3.49 bps [3]. - For the current active contracts, the CTD bonds and their corresponding net basis and IRR are as follows: for the 2 - year treasury bond futures (2509 contract), the CTD bond is 250006.IB, with a yield change of +1 bps, a net basis of 0.005, and an IRR of 1.39%; for the 5 - year, the CTD bond is 240020.IB, yield change +3.25 bps, net basis - 0.007, IRR 1.51%; for the 10 - year, the CTD bond is 250007.IB, yield change +2.75 bps, net basis - 0.044, IRR 1.88%; for the 30 - year, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, yield change +3.6 bps, net basis - 0.086, IRR 2.08% [4]. - In terms of the money supply, the central bank injected 112 billion yuan and withdrew 544.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan [4]. - The trading strategy is that due to the rising risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies in the medium - to - long term [4]. 4. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent import - export and social activity sentiment has declined [10].