1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: Neutral [3] - Thermal Coal: Bullish [3] - Domestic Supply: Bullish [3] - Imports: Bearish [3] - Downstream Demand: Neutral [3] - Upstream Profits: Neutral [3] - MTO Profits: Bearish [3] - Inventory: Neutral [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the reality of methanol is weak, but the expectation is strong due to macro and demand increment expectations, leading to a continuous decline in the recent month spread. The short - term strategy is still a reverse arbitrage logic. For unilateral trading, more attention should be paid to the impact of commodity sentiment, and look for long opportunities at low levels in forward contracts [3]. - Coal prices have continued to rebound recently, with pit - mouth prices rising, and coal has entered the peak season [3]. - The domestic methanol operating rate has rebounded slightly but remains low, with many domestic plants under maintenance, resulting in a reduction in inland supply [3]. - Overseas plants are resuming production, and there is significant import pressure in August. However, the recent natural gas shortage in Iran has led to a reduction in supply, and the sustainability of this impact should be monitored [3]. - The operating rate of traditional downstream demand is firm, and the procurement sentiment inland is fair. For olefin plants, there are both restarts and maintenance. Xingxing is under maintenance while Mengda has restarted, resulting in a reduction in coastal demand [3]. - The profit of coal - to - methanol has remained stable, the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol has remained in the red, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol has rebounded slightly [3]. - The MTO profit has rebounded significantly but remains weak [3]. - Ports have continued to accumulate inventory, while inland inventory has remained low [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply Domestic Supply - As of the week ending August 1, the national methanol plant operating rate was 71.5%, with the coal - to - methanol plant operating rate at 76.6%, the coke - oven - gas - to - methanol plant operating rate at 56.8%, and the natural - gas - to - methanol plant operating rate at 49.9% [11]. - During the period from July 25 to July 31, Yulin Kaiyue, Yankuang Yulin, Shenmu Chemical, Shanxi Linxin, and Shanxi Gengyang restarted, while Shaanxi Changqing and Runzhong Clean started maintenance. Many domestic plants, including Gansu Huating, Yulin Kaiyue, etc., are still under maintenance [13][14]. Overseas Supply - In Iran, multiple plants are operating at low loads, and two plants are shut down. The high - peak summer electricity demand in Iran has led to a natural gas shortage, which may affect methanol production. For example, Zagros PC's two sets of 330 - ton - per - year plants are operating at low loads, and Bushehr and Fanavaran PC are under maintenance [19]. - In other regions, Shell in Germany, Bioethanol in the Netherlands, and some plants in Malaysia, the US, Trinidad, Venezuela, New Zealand, and Chile also have various operating conditions such as shutdowns and low - load operations [19]. Demand Traditional Demand - The operating rate of traditional downstream demand has changed little. The operating rates of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether have rebounded slightly, while those of MTBE and acetic acid have declined. Currently, it is the off - season for traditional demand, but overall, it still shows resilience. The current profit of traditional downstream sectors is low, and it remains to be seen whether the peak demand season will materialize [51]. - The downstream procurement volume has declined recently. The procurement of olefins has slowed down after the previous restocking, and the procurement volume of traditional demand has declined continuously, mainly due to the recent price decline suppressing buying sentiment and the impact of the current traditional off - season [56]. Olefin Demand - As of July 31, the MTO operating rate was 81%, and the operating rate of externally - sourced methanol - to - olefin plants was 76.4%. Mengda's MTO plant restarted at the end of the month, and Xingxing's MTO plant shut down for maintenance [40]. - The profit of East China's MTO plants has recently recovered, mainly due to the recent decline in methanol prices in East China. However, the relatively strong inland methanol prices have led to a recent decline in inland profits [40]. Profits - Coal - to - methanol profit has remained stable, natural - gas - to - methanol profit has remained in the red, and coke - oven - gas - to - methanol profit has rebounded slightly. As of August 4, the profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was 136.5 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in Southwest China was - 270 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 275 yuan/ton [32]. - MTO profit has rebounded significantly but remains weak [3]. Inventory - This week, the port inventory is 91.5 tons, and the port's tradable inventory is 43.6 tons, continuing to accumulate. Ports are in the seasonal inventory accumulation period. With the shutdown of East China's MTO plants and the realization of increased imports, ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory. Inland enterprise inventory has remained low and continued to decline last week. With more inland plants under maintenance and the large - scale procurement by an inland enterprise, the inland sentiment is expected to remain strong [74]. - The inventory of MTO sample enterprises has decreased slightly. The port procurement volume slowed down last week after the downstream's phased restocking. It is expected that procurement will increase slightly this week. The raw - material inventory of traditional downstream sectors has changed little [80]. Market Spreads - The basis of the East China main contract has remained weak recently. With ports continuing to accumulate inventory, the spot basis in East China has been continuously declining. It is expected that the basis will remain weak in July and August [89]. - The 9 - 1 month spread has been continuously declining. The weak reality has pressured the near - end price, but the macro situation and the improved expectation for methanol itself have made the far - end stronger. In the short term, the reverse arbitrage logic is expected to continue [89]. - The PP/L - 3MA spread has strengthened recently. After the methanol price reached a high and then declined, the spread first contracted and then expanded. In the short term, the volatility of the spread still depends on the methanol side, and short - term trading in bands is recommended [94]. Balance Sheet - The total methanol production, supply, and consumption show different trends throughout 2025. For example, the total production is expected to reach 742 tons in August 2025, with coal accounting for 614 tons, natural gas for 54 tons, and coke - oven gas for 74 tons. The total supply is expected to be 867 tons, and the consumption is expected to be 860 tons [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market's fundamentals weakened marginally last week. With the LME nickel inventory increasing by 2.47% to 209,100 tons, the real - world demand is not optimistic. If there are no new disruptions on the supply side in the short term, nickel prices may fluctuate around the cost line [3][4]. - The stainless - steel social inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. However, this is mainly due to the settlement and pick - up of previous futures contracts, and the subsequent inventory reduction speed may slow down. The scheduled stainless - steel production for August has increased month - on - month, and the short - term supply remains high, with prices likely to fluctuate within a certain range [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: - The spot price of electrolytic nickel as of August 4 decreased by 1,950 yuan/ton to 121,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%. The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,750 yuan/ton to 122,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41%, and its premium increased by 200 to 2,350 yuan/ton. The price of imported nickel decreased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 120,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%, and its premium decreased by 50 to 350 yuan/ton [16]. - The LME nickel price as of August 4 decreased by 125 dollars/ton to 15,105 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%. The LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium increased by 7.72 dollars/ton to - 200.74 dollars/ton [21]. - The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 783 tons to 21,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%. The LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons to 209,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47%. The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) decreased by 795 tons to 39,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01%. The East China social inventory decreased by 1,094 tons to 13,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.38%, and the Shanghai Free Trade Zone inventory increased by 500 tons to 5,200 tons [46]. - **Supply**: - As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.1 million tons to 32,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.14% and a year - on - year increase of 13.69% [43]. - As of June 2025, China's refined nickel monthly export volume was 10,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.01%. The monthly import volume was 17,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year increase of 132.29%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative refined nickel export volume was 91,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 107.42%, and the cumulative import volume was 94,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 127.16% [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: - As of June 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel decreased by 948 dollars/ton to 13,025 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.78% [51]. - As of June 2025, the production cost of electrowon nickel from integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte increased by 1,066 and decreased by 3,629 yuan/ton respectively to 121,953 yuan/ton and 129,163 yuan/ton. The profit margins increased by 0.2 and 3.5 percentage points respectively to - 1.4% and - 6.9% [51]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Production and Demand**: - As of July 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly output increased by 0.43 million tons to 29,100 nickel tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.3%. Recently, some precursor factories have restocking needs, and their price acceptance has also increased, leading to a recovery in the supply of sulfuric acid nickel [58]. - As of June 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly import volume was 13,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.01%. The monthly export volume was 782.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.66% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.02% [58]. - **Profit Margin**: As of August 4, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag increased by 3.5, 1.6, 3.9, and 1.5 respectively to 1.5%, - 1.7%, 5.6%, and - 2% [63]. Ferronickel - **Production**: - As of July 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 24,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. In Indonesia, the nickel pig iron production decreased by 0.24 million tons to 134,400 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.73% [70]. - Many domestic ferronickel enterprises are operating at reduced loads or are shut down for maintenance [70]. - **Inventory and Profit**: - As of July 31, the national main - region nickel pig iron inventory (metal tons) increased by 182 tons to 33,400 nickel tons (average grade 11.72%), a month - on - month increase of 0.55% [77]. - As of August 4, the cash production cost of RKEF in Fujian remained flat at 1,031 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin remained flat at - 11.25% [77]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Performance**: - Last week, the stainless - steel main contract ss2509 opened at 13,045 yuan/ton, closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 13,130 yuan/ton and a low of 12,760 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1.46% [81]. - As of August 4, the 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation increased by 100 to 13,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.78% [81]. - **Inventory and Production**: - As of August 1, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1,111,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%. The 300 - series inventory increased by 0.67 million tons to 676,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. The stainless - steel inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down this week [84]. - As of July 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 6.14 million tons to 3,230,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87%. The 300 - series production decreased by 3.58 million tons to 1,708,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05% [87]. - **Cost and Profit**: - As of August 1, the cash cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in China decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 13,058 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. The profit margin of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils increased by 0.88 percentage points to - 3.54% [92]. - The high - nickel pig iron price was weakly stable last week, and the chromium - iron price remained stable, so the stainless - steel cost support still exists [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall view on urea is neutral. Supply-wise, summer maintenance has increased, keeping production at a relatively low level but still higher than historical averages. Export profits are high, yet there is no further news on export quotas. The compound fertilizer operating rate continues to rise, while industrial demand is lukewarm. In the short term, domestic drivers are not obvious, and there is still an expectation of export policy liberalization [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - Urea spot prices have slightly stabilized. The domestic supply-demand situation remains loose, with enterprise inventories turning from decreasing to increasing. Ammonium chloride prices have stabilized with a slight increase in new orders. The ammonium sulfate market is in a stalemate with no signs of improvement in transactions [8][11]. - Current export profits remain high, but there is no news of new export quota releases, so potential export demand cannot be freely released [32]. Operating Rate - Coal-based urea production still has good profits. Summer maintenance has started, and the operating rate is at a relatively low level but still at a high point in recent years. Some enterprises have carried out maintenance this period, and some are scheduled to stop production next week, with the overall operating rate changing little [40]. Inventory - This week, enterprise inventories have slightly increased as domestic demand enters the off - season and exports have made no new progress. Port inventories have decreased, with some large - granular urea at Yantai Port shipped out and some small - granular urea gathered at Lianyungang and Rizhao Ports [53]. Profit - Coal - to - urea still maintains high profits, while gas - to - urea profits are almost gone as urea prices fluctuate at a low level [66][80]. Export - Current exports are proceeding steadily, but there is no news of further liberalization. After the domestic price weakens, the potential export profit remains extremely high, and the downside space for urea may be limited [84]. Domestic Demand - This week, compound fertilizer prices are basically unchanged. The cost side shows a weak downward trend in urea prices, a slight increase in monoammonium phosphate prices, and narrow fluctuations in potash fertilizer prices. The demand for southern rice has decreased, and some enterprises in Hunan and Jiangxi are in the traditional maintenance period. The autumn fertilizer sales have improved. Compound fertilizer enterprises are receiving orders as needed, and the operating rate is increasing faster [96][99]. - Melamine prices have remained stable recently, with a dull trading atmosphere. The industry utilization rate remains high, and supply changes are limited. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, with insufficient support [110]. Raw Materials - Recently, coal demand remains high but has little change compared to the same period in previous years. The price rebound space is limited due to the increase in new - energy power generation squeezing thermal power demand and high power - plant inventories. The supply - demand situation of synthetic ammonia remains tight, with enterprises reducing production, smooth low - price order transactions, rapid inventory reduction, and price increases [145][154]. Futures - Recently, futures and spot prices have shown a weak and volatile trend, and the monthly spread has declined. The number of warehouse receipts is significantly higher than in the same period in history [179]. Balance Sheet - The report provides the total supply, production, import, total demand, demand breakdown by sector, export, surplus, and year - on - year changes in production, supply, and consumption of urea from September 2024 to December 2025 [183].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent market sentiment may partially ebb. Amid the game between weak reality and strong expectations, the fundamentals and macro - logic of nickel may fluctuate. This week, the ore price declined slightly month - on - month, and the cost support for nickel is weak. Attention should still be paid to the policy guidance from Indonesia, such as the APNI Association's hope to re - evaluate the nickel ore pricing formula [3][4]. - The stainless steel market has improved somewhat, but it is still in the off - season, with limited overall demand release and insufficient price increase momentum. Currently, the supply remains high, and the short - term supply - demand pattern improvement is limited. Stainless steel may maintain a range - bound trend [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Cost**: - As of July 28, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore were $29, $58, and $79.5 per wet ton respectively, down $1, $0.5, and $1 from last week [3][32]. - As of July 25, the ex - factory prices of Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore in Indonesia were $25 and $52.1 per wet ton respectively, down $0 and $0.1 from last week [3][32]. - As of July 28, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was $912 per nickel point, up $10.5 or 1.16% from last week [3][28]. - As of July 28, the FOB price of MHP was $12,716 per ton, up $407 or 3.30% from last week; the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte was $13,281 per ton, up $392 or 3.03% from last week [38]. - As of July 28, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was $123,200 per ton, up $350 or 0.28% from last week [16]. - As of July 28, the price of Jinchuan nickel was $124,250 per ton, up $400 or 0.32% from last week; the premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by $150 to $2,150 per ton [17]. - As of July 28, the price of imported nickel was $122,500 per ton, up $300 or 0.25% from last week; the premium of imported nickel increased by $50 to $400 per ton [17]. - **Supply**: - As of July 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.04 million tons to 3.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26% [3][43]. - As of June 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.16 thousand tons to 25.64 thousand tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% [3][73]. - As of June 2025, Indonesia's nickel pig iron production decreased by 0.46 million tons to 13.68 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.26% [73]. - As of July 2025, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 0.07 million tons to 3.87 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.84%; high - grade nickel matte production increased by 0.08 million tons to 1.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.30% [38]. - As of June 2025, the monthly MHP import volume was 12.82 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.21%; the monthly high - grade nickel matte import volume was 2.25 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% [38]. - **Inventory**: - As of July 25, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 32 million tons to 747 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.48% [34]. - As of July 28, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 158 tons to 2.19 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71%; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 0.38 million tons to 20.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.85% [47]. - Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) decreased by 57 tons to 4.03 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14% [3][47]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Cost**: - As of July 28, the 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation was $12,900 per ton, unchanged from last week [84]. - As of July 25, the cash cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel coils decreased by $97 per ton to $13,076 per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.71%; the profit margin increased by 1.41 percentage points to - 4.42% [94]. - **Supply and Demand**: - As of June 2025, the national stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 17.13 million tons to 329.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95% [3][90]. - As of June 2025, China's monthly stainless steel import volume was 10.95 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.61%; the monthly export volume was 39.0 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.51% [90]. - **Inventory**: - As of July 25, the stainless steel market inventory decreased by 2.92 million tons to 111.86 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54% [3][86]. - As of July 28, the stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 303 tons to 10.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29% [86]. Tin - The tin monthly balance sheet shows data from January to December 2025, including total production, imports, exports, total consumption, surplus, supply year - on - year, consumption year - on - year, supply cumulative year - on - year, and consumption cumulative year - on - year [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Neutral, with a focus on low - buying opportunities [5] - PX: Neutral, expecting low - buying [6] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bullish, suggesting attention to low - buying opportunities on pullbacks [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: Downstream restocking has stabilized demand during the off - season. Supply maintenance is significant, and the market is in a tight balance from July to August. Overall inventory is not high, and it is supported by macro factors and crude oil in the short term [5][50] - PX: Low inventory, decent supply - demand fundamentals, stable spot prices. Short - term cost and macro factors are strong, so low - buying is expected [6][78] - Ethylene Glycol: Low inventory, extended maintenance of integrated units, a tight balance. Short - term macro factors and coal prices are strong, and low inventory provides support. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities [7][113] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PTA - **Device Changes**: Fuhai Chuang is under maintenance until the end of August, Weilian Chemical will restart in early August. YS Dahua plans maintenance in early August, YS Hainan plans technological transformation in August, and Jiaxing Petrochemical has a maintenance plan in August. New materials slightly reduced their load due to the typhoon [39][41] - **Inventory**: As of July 25, PTA social inventory slightly increased to 220.5 million tons (excluding credit warehouse receipts), with a 1.6 - million - ton increase. Warehouse receipt inventory is not high, and in - port and in - warehouse goods are relatively high [42] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Supply - demand changes are small, maintaining a tight balance from July to August. Demand has stabilized during the off - season, and it is supported by cost and macro factors [50] 3.2 PX - **Device Changes**: Domestic operating rate is 79.9%, and Asian operating rate is 72.9%. Tianjin Petrochemical is under maintenance, Shenghong slightly reduced its load, and Jinling Petrochemical increased its load. Weilian plans to restart in early August. The new Daxie reforming and disproportionation units are planned to produce in August, and Yulong MX is under commissioning [6][73][78] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The balance is tight, and PXN has corrected to around $260 - 270. It is supported by short - term macro factors and crude oil [78] 3.3 Ethylene Glycol - **Device Changes**: The overall load is 68%, and the coal - based load is 74%. For oil - based production, Zhejiang Petrochemical is expected to restart in early August, and Satellite Petrochemical has postponed its restart to the end of September. For coal - based production, Yangmei, Jianyuan, Yueneng, and Sinochem have restarted, Tianying is shut down, and Shenhua Yulin slightly reduced its load [7][87][113] - **Inventory**: As of July 28, the inventory at major ports in East China is about 521,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory is at a relatively low level [109] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The balance is tight from July to August, with low inventory and little pressure to accumulate inventory [113] 3.4 Polyester Industry - **Operating Rate**: As of July 25, the polyester load is 88.7%. After downstream restocking, the inventory pressure has decreased. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing are 67% (+6%), 59% (+3%), and 65% (-2%) respectively [14][50] - **Inventory**: As of July 25, the average polyester inventory is about 18.8 days. The inventories of POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber are 16.5, 23.3, 23.8, and 12.8 days respectively [14][25] - **Profit**: The overall profit of the polyester industry chain is average. The losses of filament profit have slightly recovered, and the profits of bottle chips, staple fibers, and chips have slightly improved [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is Neutral to Bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, PVC production has increased, and the industry chain continues to accumulate inventory, increasing pressure on PVC. Recently, low - valued varieties are greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly with the previous upward movement of the futures market. It is expected that as September approaches, pricing will return to fundamentals [3] - The 9 - 1 month spread has been oscillating weakly recently [3] - Overseas uncertainties are high, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of July [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Materials (Lanthanum Coke and Calcium Carbide) - Lanthanum Coke: The operating rate of sample enterprises remained stable at 39.14%, and the price of Shenmu medium - grade lanthanum coke was reported at 580 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [6] - Calcium Carbide: Supply slightly increased, with the operating rate rising 0.9 percentage points to 72.2% (medium - low overall). The price of Wuhai calcium carbide dropped to 2225 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan from last week, and the profit was - 306 yuan [12] 3.2 PVC Supply - The overall operating rate of PVC powder was 75.81%, a 0.84 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. Among them, the operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder was 79.21%, up 1.69 percentage points, while that of ethylene - based PVC powder was 66.95%, down 1.36 percentage points. Tianjin Dagu plans to start mass production in August, and Haijing plans to start production at the end of August [3][17] 3.3 PVC Downstream Demand - Downstream product operating rates: Pipe operating rate was 32.52% (- 1.23%), and profile operating rate was 38.00% (+ 3.45%), both lower than the same period last year [25] - Exports: From January to June, PVC powder exports were 196 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 66 million tons (+ 50.7%), but exports weakened significantly in June. From January to June, PVC powder imports were 12.42 million tons, basically the same as last year. From January to June, cumulative floor exports were 209 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05% [61][62][64] 3.4 PVC Inventory - Social inventory increased to 63.12 million tons, an increase of 2.21 million tons from the previous period. Among them, East China sample inventory was 58.72 million tons, up 2.16 million tons, and South China sample inventory was 4.40 million tons, up 0.05 million tons. Upstream factory inventory decreased to 37.23 million tons, a decrease of 0.32 million tons from the previous period. The industry chain inventory increased [32][33] 3.5 PVC Profit - Calcium - carbide integration losses slightly narrowed. Xinjiang integration profit was - 290 yuan/ton, and Northwest integration profit was - 767 yuan/ton. The profit of the purchased calcium - carbide method rebounded. The profit of the Northwest purchased calcium - carbide method was - 114 yuan/ton, and that of the North China purchased calcium - carbide method was - 393 yuan/ton [43] - The profit of the purchased ethylene method slightly rebounded. East China ethylene - based profit was 463 yuan/ton, and North China ethylene - based profit was 613 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week [46] - Comprehensive profit strengthened. Northwest comprehensive profit was 684 yuan/ton and continued to increase. Shandong comprehensive profit was 160 yuan/ton. The double - ton price difference increased by 210 to 3459 yuan/ton [55] 3.6 Related Commodities - Since 2024, real - estate demand has continued to weaken, cement prices have declined, and the operating rate has remained low [68] 3.7 Futures - Spot Analysis - The futures market strengthened. The 09 contract rose from 4937 last week to 5149 at the last closing. The 9 - 1 month spread weakened to - 128. The number of registered warehouse receipts continued to increase, reaching 56,410 on July 28, an increase of 1770 from last week [79] 3.8 PVC Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows monthly production, demand, imports, exports, inventory changes, year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes in production and demand from 2024 to 2025 [81]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term**: As of July 25, both RU and NR prices increased, and the RU - NR spread widened. The RU09 - 01 spread was at a high level. RU prices are affected by downstream stocking sentiment and a downward trend in light - colored rubber inventories, while NR prices are influenced by supply panic due to the Thailand - Cambodia conflict and short - term export resilience in the tire industry. It is judged that both RU and NR prices will fluctuate within a range this week [4]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: RU has a neutral rating, and NR has a neutral - to - bearish rating. The RU9 - 1 spread is neutral - to - bearish, and the RU - NR spread is expected to continue widening. The overall situation of the natural rubber market is complex, with various factors such as supply, demand, and inventory having different impacts [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Price and Spread - As of July 25, the RU09 - 01 spread was - 765 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from last week. The RU01 - 05 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from last week. The NR consecutive one - consecutive two spread was - 5 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week, and the NR consecutive two - consecutive three spread was - 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week [4][98]. - As of July 25, the spread between Thai mixed spot and RU main contract was - 485 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the same period [4]. - As of July 25, the Shanghai Vietnam 3L price was 15100 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from last week; the Shanghai state - owned whole milk price was 15350 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton from last week; the Shanghai RSS3 price was 19800 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week [69]. Supply - **Thailand**: Thailand's rubber production has fully resumed after the conflict, and the supply is increasing. The conflict in the border areas of three Thai provinces may lead to a maximum reduction of 0.5 million tons in July's production if the situation recovers before August, and an additional 2.12 million tons if the conflict continues into August. As of July 28, a cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia has taken effect [8]. - **China**: From January to June, China's cumulative imports of natural rubber were 145.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.05%. In June, China imported 5.58 million tons of natural rubber from Thailand, a month - on - month decrease of 39.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.46% due to the delayed tapping and rainy - season disturbances in Thailand. Yunnan's rubber production is affected by rainfall, but the overall increasing trend remains unchanged [30][40]. Demand - **Tire Industry**: It is currently the off - season for tire consumption, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. As of July 24, the full - steel tire production rate of Chinese tire enterprises was 65.02%, a 0.08% decrease from last week, and the semi - steel tire production rate was 65.87%, a 0.12% decrease from last week. The semi - steel tire inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Dairy Products**: The demand for concentrated dairy products is weak, and the production rate is at a historically low level [4]. Inventory - As of July 20, the social inventory of light - colored rubber was 49.3 million tons, a 1% week - on - week decrease, and the social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.5 million tons, a 0.25% week - on - week decrease [4][83][84]. - As of July 25, the inventory of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week, while the inventory of 20 - standard rubber futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange increased week - on - week. The total inventory of spot rubber at Qingdao Port increased slightly, with bonded inventory decreasing and general trade inventory increasing [15][48]. Other Factors - The rainy season in Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas is gradually weakening, but there is still rainfall in China's main producing areas, which may affect rubber tapping [4]. - The tire industry is facing the problems of reduced export profits and high raw material costs. The government has introduced policies to regulate the industry, but the market trend is mainly driven by the commodity market atmosphere [18][26].

尿素周报2025/7/28 作者：康健 从业资格证号：F03088041 交易咨询证号：Z0019583 研究联系方式：kangjian@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 内卷不如外卷 观点小结 | 尿素 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 偏多 | 供应方面，夏季检修增加，产量下滑但仍处于高位；出口利润较高，但出口额度仍未大幅放开；复合肥开 工率缓慢提升，工业需求不温不火。综合来看，短期国内驱动不明显，内卷不如外卷，出口政策仍有放开 | | | | 预期。 | | 月差 | 中性 | 可继续关注出口提振带来的月差走强机会。 | | | 偏多 | | | 政策 | 中性 | 市场传言小包装尿素出口停止，其他尿素出口仍在进行。 | | 现货 | 中性 | 复合肥开工率缓慢提升，但企业原料库存尚可，采购需求平稳。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 企业库存继续小幅下行，港口库存继续走高，企业库存部分向港口转移。 | | | 偏多 | | | 出口 | 中性 | 国际价格继续走高，出口潜在利润进一步 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation has marginally improved, but the upside space is limited. Zinc is an oversupplied variety, and inventory accumulation has begun in all links of the industrial chain. The overall outlook for the year is bearish. In July, smelters are actively resuming production. Considering the resumption of production after maintenance and new production, the month - on - month increase may be between 15,000 and 20,000 tons. It is the off - season for consumption, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the valuation center of Shanghai zinc will decline, and the month - on - month increase in social inventory will rise [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Qualitative Analysis of Zinc - **Core Viewpoint**: The outlook is oscillating weakly. The macro - situation has marginally improved, but the upside space is limited. Zinc is an oversupplied variety, and inventory accumulation has begun in all links of the industrial chain. The overall outlook for the year is bearish. In July, smelters are actively resuming production. Considering the resumption of production after maintenance and new production, the month - on - month increase may be between 15,000 and 20,000 tons. It is the off - season for consumption, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the valuation center of Shanghai zinc will decline, and the month - on - month increase in social inventory will rise [3]. - **Smelting Profit**: Bearish. The weekly domestic processing fee is 3,800 yuan/metal ton; the weekly imported TC is 65 US dollars/dry ton, with a small month - on - month increase. The average smelting profit without considering by - products has risen to around - 200 yuan/ton [3]. - **Spot Premium/Discount**: Bearish. Shanghai has a premium of 30 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract; Guangdong has a discount of - 45 yuan/ton over the 2509 contract; Tianjin has a discount of 20 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [3]. - **Galvanized Steel Pipe开工率**: Bearish. The weekly production capacity utilization rate of galvanized steel pipes is 49.91%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% [3]. - **Alloy开工率**: Bearish. The weekly alloy production capacity utilization rate is 58.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% [3]. - **Domestic Inventory**: Bearish. The inventory in the original three regions has increased by 500 tons, and the inventory in the seven regions has increased by 400 tons [3]. - **LME Premium/Discount**: Bullish. The LME zinc 0 - 3 premium/discount has risen to around - 10 US dollars/ton [3]. - **Import Profit**: Bullish. The import window is closed. The LME zinc ingot has a loss of 1,300 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai zinc spot and a loss of 1,400 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai zinc 2508 futures [3]. - **LME Inventory**: Bearish. The total LME zinc inventory is 121,500 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 15,800 tons [3]. 2. Monthly Balance Sheet of Zinc - **Total Production**: Varies from month to month, with 546,900 tons in March 2025 and 595,100 tons in July 2025 [4]. - **Import**: Ranges from 26,700 tons to 39,700 tons from January to December 2025, with a decrease in some months [4]. - **Export**: Remains relatively stable at around 1,000 tons per month [4]. - **Total Supply**: Fluctuates between 515,100 tons and 626,100 tons throughout the year [4]. - **Total Consumption**: Ranges from 485,600 tons to 618,200 tons, showing different trends in different months [4]. - **Surplus Quantity**: There are periods of surplus and deficit, with a surplus of 261,000 tons in July 2025 [4]. 3. Weekly Fundamental Situation - **Production News**: Australian copper miner 29Metals reported a decline in both copper and zinc production in the second quarter. Vedanta's zinc concentrate production in the second quarter of 2025 increased by 7% year - on - year. EmSulliden Mining Capital Inc. obtained a 48% stake in a nickel, zinc, and lead exploration project in Poland. Hudbay Minerals suspended operations in the Snow Lake area due to wildfires [7]. 4. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - **Domestic Processing Fee**: The 50% grade zinc concentrate processing fee is in the range of 3,600 - 4,300 yuan/metal ton, with a national average of 3,800 yuan/metal ton, unchanged month - on - month [9]. - **Imported Processing Fee**: The imported zinc concentrate processing fee ranges from 50 to 80 US dollars/dry ton, with an average of 65 US dollars/dry ton, unchanged month - on - month. The long - term tender price of overseas zinc concentrates has not increased significantly, but the container bulk cargo transaction price has increased, and the overall trend of imported ores is upward [9]. 5. Zinc Concentrate Import and Inventory - **Import Volume**: In May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore and concentrates was 491,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. The cumulative import volume from January to May was 2.204 million tons [10]. - **Import Source Countries**: Mainly from Australia, Peru, Russia, and South Africa, with Peru and Australia being the major ones [12]. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 11, the total port inventory was 333,000 tons, including 80,000 tons in Lianyungang and 140,000 tons in Fangchenggang. Recent port transactions have decreased, and traders are waiting to sell [15]. 6. Zinc Futures Prices - **Shanghai Zinc Futures**: Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc opened at 22,340 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 22,475 yuan/ton, a low of 21,865 yuan/ton, and closed at 22,380 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.13%. The monthly spread has fallen below 100 yuan, and the cost - effectiveness of the monthly spread ratio is not high, so it is currently advisable to wait and see [18]. - **LME Zinc Futures**: Last week, LME zinc opened at 2,733.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly high of 2,785 US dollars/ton, a low of 2,675.5 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2,738 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.09%. The outer market maintains a backwardation structure, and the LME zinc 0 - 3 discount is around - 10 US dollars/ton [20]. 7. Zinc Import Profit and Ratio - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: As of this Tuesday, the Shanghai - London ratio of zinc has dropped to 8.15, and the exchange - adjusted ratio has dropped to 1.14. The import window is closed, and the current spot import loss is 900 yuan/ton [25]. 8. Refined Zinc Production and Consumption - **Production**: In July, many smelters are resuming or starting production. Yunnan, Guangxi, Qinghai, and Henan smelters contribute to the increase, while Inner Mongolia and Gansu smelters contribute to the decrease. It is expected that the refined zinc production in July 2025 will increase by about 20,000 tons month - on - month [33]. - **Import**: In May 2025, China imported 26,700 tons of refined zinc, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. The main import countries are Kazakhstan, Australia, and Spain, with Kazakhstan and Australia accounting for 58.7% and 13.56% respectively. The main import provinces are Shanghai and Zhejiang [35]. - **Downstream Consumption**: The production capacity utilization rate of galvanized pipes is 49.91%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61%. The alloy production capacity utilization rate is 58.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65%. The terminal consumption has not improved, and the market order transactions are not good [3][40][42]. 9. Zinc Inventory - **SHFE Inventory**: As of July 11, the total SHFE refined zinc inventory was 49,500 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of about 4,000 tons [53]. - **LME Inventory**: As of July 11, the total LME zinc inventory was 121,500 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 15,800 tons [53]. - **Seven - Region Inventory**: As of July 17, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 93,500 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons compared to July 10, with significant inventory increases in Guangdong and Tianjin [60]. 10. Lead - Zinc Ratio - The lead - zinc ratio has risen slightly. As of this Tuesday, the domestic lead - zinc ratio is 0.77, and the outer - market lead - zinc ratio is 0.74 [61].

作者：康健 从业资格证号：F03088041 尿素周报2025/7/18 交易咨询证号：Z0019583 研究联系方式：kangjian@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：肖兰兰 交易咨询证号：Z0013951 关注出口变化 观点小结 | 尿素 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 供应方面，夏季检修增加，产量有所下滑；出口利润较高，但出口额度仍未大幅放开；复合肥秋季预收开 | | | 偏多 | 始，开工率缓慢提升，工业需求不温不火。综合来看，短期国内驱动不明显，关注出口政策变化。 | | 月差 | 中性 偏多 | 可继续关注出口提振带来的月差走强机会。 | | 政策 | 中性 | 市场传言出口指导价提高，新一轮出口额度释放，但目前并不大幅放开出口的确定消息。 | | 现货 | 中性 | 复合肥开工率缓慢提升，但企业收单平稳，成交不温不火。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 企业库存继续下行，港口库存继续走高，企业库存部分向港口转移，出口需求支撑当前尿素价格。 | | 出口 | 中性 | 国际价格继续走高，出口潜在利润进一步提升； ...