Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is experiencing weak sales under high base conditions, with a trend of exchanging price for volume continuing towards the end of the year [1][5] - The overall performance of the sales market has been lackluster since the second half of the year, with a significant decline in sales data reflecting persistent market hesitation [8][33] Summary by Sections Sales Data - From January to November 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 787 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with residential sales area down 8.1% [5][14] - In November 2025, the sales area and amount of commercial housing decreased by 17.3% and 25.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a notable trend of price reduction to stimulate sales [5][14] Construction Data - The new construction area from January to November 2025 was 535 million square meters, down 20.5% year-on-year, with residential new construction down 19.9% [6][19] - The completion area was 395 million square meters, down 18.0% year-on-year, indicating continued pressure on construction data [6][19] Investment Data - Real estate development investment from January to November 2025 was 7.86 trillion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, with residential development investment down 15.0% [7][23] - The funds available to real estate developers were 8.51 trillion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with significant declines in various funding sources [7][25] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8][35] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group, are also recommended [8][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major real estate companies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is entering a "quality era," with a recovery in the opening sales rate, which is a key indicator of market sentiment and profitability trends [2][11]. - The opening sales rate in key cities for the first three quarters of 2025 was 56%, an increase of 8 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024, and a 16 percentage point increase from Q3 2024 [2][26]. - The report highlights that the improvement in sales rates is driven by enhanced product quality and design, with average renovation costs in nine cities rising by 7% in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to 2024 [2][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Finding the Turning Point in the New Housing Market - The opening sales rate is identified as the most effective indicator for gauging market sentiment and predicting profitability trends [2][11]. - Historical data shows that the opening sales rate can effectively signal the start of a market rally [2][15]. 2. "Good Houses" Driving Sales Rate Improvement - The overall sales rate has shown a stable upward trend, with key cities experiencing a recovery from a low of 41% in Q3 2024 to 56% in the first three quarters of 2025 [2][26]. - The report emphasizes that the improvement in sales rates reflects genuine sales recovery rather than structural issues [2][26]. 3. City and Sector Analysis - There are significant differences in sales rates across different cities, with top-tier companies showing clear operational advantages [2][26]. - The report categorizes cities into three tiers based on their sales performance, indicating a narrowing range of high sales rate cities over the past decade [2][26]. 4. Performance and Characteristics of Real Estate Companies - Most major real estate companies have improved their sales rates in 2025, with leading firms like Poly, Jinmao, and China Overseas Development showing notable increases [2][26]. - The report suggests that companies with high land acquisition scores and strong sales performance are likely to perform well in 2026 [2][26]. 5. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed financial metrics for major companies, including Vanke, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments, all rated as "Buy" with projected reasonable values indicating potential upside [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, focusing on risk resolution and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [5][8] - The overall tone of the conference is the most positive of the year, indicating a responsive approach to the industry's downward trend [14] - The policy shift from "stimulating demand" to "digesting inventory and optimizing supply" reflects a strategic change in real estate policy [14] Summary by Sections Economic Work Conference Insights - The conference held on December 11, 2025, updated its stance on real estate, focusing on stabilizing the market and managing risks effectively [5][8] - Key measures include controlling new land supply, revitalizing existing land and commercial properties, and promoting the construction of quality housing [5][8] Policy Evolution - The shift in policy from "stimulating demand" to "controlling increment, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" has been noted since April 2024 [14] - The emphasis on "risk prevention" suggests that 2026 may see intensified contradictions within the real estate sector [14] Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report includes a detailed valuation and financial analysis of key companies in the real estate sector, with several companies rated as "Buy" [6] - Notable companies include Vanke A, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments, all showing potential for strong performance [6][17] Recommendations - The report recommends several A-share and H-share companies for investment, indicating a focus on both development and property management sectors [17]

Market Overview - The market sentiment improved significantly due to favorable news from the Central Economic Work Conference, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.75% and returning to 26,000 points [1] - Major technology stocks collectively increased, with NetEase rising over 4%, Tencent and Alibaba up over 2%, and other tech companies like Xiaomi, Baidu, JD.com, and Kuaishou also seeing gains [1][3] Sector Performance - **Electric Power Equipment**: Strong performance with Dongfang Electric up over 13% and other companies like Harbin Electric and Shanghai Electric also showing significant gains [1][5] - **Financial Sector**: All major financial stocks, including China Pacific Insurance and CITIC Securities, saw increases, with HSBC reaching a market value of over HKD 2 trillion [1][8] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices surged, leading to active trading in gold stocks, with China Silver Group rising nearly 6% [1][6] - **Consumer Sector**: Restaurant stocks were active, with companies like Da Shi and Haidilao seeing notable increases, driven by policies aimed at boosting consumption [10] - **Real Estate**: Property stocks rose, with Longguang Group increasing over 4%, supported by policies to stabilize the real estate market [12] Individual Stock Highlights - **NetEase**: Stock price increased by 4.20% to HKD 218.40 [4] - **Dongfang Electric**: Stock price surged by 13.59% to HKD 24.90 [5] - **China Pacific Insurance**: Stock price rose by 5.68% to HKD 34.60 [9] - **China Silver Group**: Stock price increased by 5.80% to HKD 0.730 [7] - **Xuan Bamboo Bio**: Stock price increased by 25.19% to HKD 96.90, reaching a new high [16][19] Economic Policy Impact - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand and consumer spending, with plans to implement measures to boost consumption and stabilize the real estate market [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and managing risks in key areas, with a focus on city-specific policies to control supply, reduce inventory, and improve quality [2][4]. - The report highlights two major opportunities: the rise of "good housing" policies and the potential for value reassessment in commercial real estate, particularly during a period of monetary easing [4][12]. - The report anticipates further supportive policies for both supply and demand in the real estate market, including potential reductions in mortgage rates and optimization of purchase restrictions [4][12]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The report underscores the implementation of more proactive macroeconomic policies to promote stable economic growth and achieve a good start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][6]. - It suggests that fiscal and monetary policies will become more aggressive, with expectations for further interest rate cuts [4][8]. Real Estate Market - The report notes that the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market reflects a dual focus on halting price declines and addressing existing risks [4][12]. - It mentions the introduction of policies aimed at controlling supply, reducing inventory, and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [4][12]. - The report also discusses the need for reform in the housing provident fund system and the promotion of high-quality housing development [4][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the value reassessment of shopping centers and the new "good housing" sector, maintaining a "positive" rating for real estate and property management [4][12]. - Specific companies to watch include: - Commercial real estate: China Resources Land, New Town Holdings, Kerry Properties, Longfor Group, with a focus on Hang Lung Properties and Swire Properties [4][12]. - Good housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, China Jinmao [4][12]. - Undervalued companies: Jianfa Co., China Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Property, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments [4][12]. - Property management: China Resources Vientiane, Greentown Service, China Merchants Jinling, Poly Property, China Overseas Property [4][12]. - Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W [4][12].

3月18日，中海地产以75.02亿元的竞得海淀区树村地块，溢价率27.93%，楼面价约10.23万元/㎡，打破 了北京土地市场历史单价纪录。 室内为轻法式宫廷风，浅色奢装，支持定制化空间改造。 据悉，该项目占地3.9万㎡，容积率仅1.6，打造16栋4-6层洋房+叠拼，限高18米，共278户。南区四排规 划为低密洋房，主力户型为建面约220㎡、260㎡的大三面宽户型，以及300㎡四面宽旗舰产品；北区四 排为叠拼产品，面积350㎡-480㎡，其中，下叠为1-2层+地下室，上叠为4-5层+露台，中间层三层为370 ㎡大平层，全盘仅14套，面宽26米。 近日，中海树村项目公布案名——中海.安澜北京。 外立面采用玻璃幕墙+铝板+天然奢石，新中式坡屋顶设计，呼应圆明园风貌；室内为轻法式宫廷风， 浅色奢装，支持定制化空间改造。 ...

Core Insights - China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI) has successfully acquired the second residential land parcel in the Shenzhen Super Headquarters area, reflecting strong confidence in core assets despite high land prices [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The land auction in December marked a significant competitive environment, particularly in the Guangzhou and Shenzhen markets, indicating a recovery momentum in the industry [3]. - COLI's acquisition involved a competitive bidding process with a 42.49% premium over the starting price, highlighting the intense interest in prime real estate [6][7]. Group 2: Land Acquisition Details - The T207-0068 land parcel, measuring 11,800 square meters with a building capacity of 41,100 square meters, was sold for 31.86 billion yuan, with a floor price of 77,300 yuan per square meter [6][7]. - This land was previously designated for commercial use but was converted to residential use, reflecting a strategic shift in urban planning and land value [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, COLI reported a revenue of 1,030 billion yuan, a 6% year-on-year decline, and a significant drop in operating profit by 27.7% [11]. - Despite a contraction in sales, COLI acquired 27 land parcels totaling 82.7 billion yuan, a 40.7% increase year-on-year, indicating a focus on core city investments [11][12]. Group 4: Strategic Challenges - The high land acquisition costs juxtaposed with declining sales prices have created a challenging environment for profitability, with land prices increasing significantly compared to sales prices [13][15]. - COLI's strategy of acquiring prime land in first-tier cities is seen as a long-term investment, but it raises concerns about the sustainability of profit margins amid rising costs [14][15].

Group 1 - The top short-selling ratios are led by China Resources Beer (80291), AIA Insurance (81299), and Anta Sports (82020), all at 100.00% [1][2] - The highest short-selling amounts are recorded for Alibaba (09988) at 1.485 billion, Tencent Holdings (00700) at 1.163 billion, and China Construction Bank (00939) at 921 million [1][2] - The highest deviation values are for China Resources Beer (80291) at 37.08%, AIA Insurance (81299) at 34.84%, and Spring Health (01858) at 34.29% [1][2] Group 2 - The top ten short-selling ratios include JD Health (86618) at 100.00%, SenseTime (80020) at 89.60%, and Lenovo Group (80992) at 87.78% [2] - The top ten short-selling amounts also feature Xiaomi Group (01810) at 914 million and Pop Mart (09992) at 826 million [2] - The top ten short-selling deviation values include Baidu Group (89888) at 32.64% and Yum China (09987) at 29.58% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The competition for high-end real estate in Shenzhen has intensified, particularly with the recent auction of a prime land parcel in Nanshan, which is expected to be developed into luxury residential units, marking a new phase in the luxury property market [1][8]. Group 1: Auction Details - The T207-0068 land parcel in Nanshan was sold for 3.186 billion, with a premium rate of 42.49%, resulting in a comprehensive floor price of approximately 77,400 per square meter and a saleable floor price of about 87,000 per square meter [1][5]. - The land has an area of 11,833.61 square meters and a residential saleable area of 36,584 square meters, with a height limit of 100 meters and a plot ratio of 3.1 [3][6]. Group 2: Market Context - The new land acquisition by China Overseas Land & Investment (中海) is expected to complement its existing luxury projects, potentially creating a product hierarchy similar to the previously developed Deep Bay Jiu Xu [5][7]. - The competitive landscape has expanded from the original "Hau Hai-She Kou" area to include "Hau Hai-She Kou-Shen Chao Zong," indicating a broader market for luxury properties [8][9]. Group 3: Competitive Dynamics - The entry of the new land parcel is likely to intensify competition among luxury projects, with multiple developments in the vicinity, including Shenzhen Bay Luan Xi and CITIC Xin Yue Bay, collectively offering over 1,800 units [7][8]. - The high acquisition cost and the need to maintain luxury positioning will compel developers to enhance product quality, such as upgrading exterior finishes and offering high-end furnishings to attract buyers [10][11]. Group 4: Sales Performance - In contrast to the inventory issues faced in Beijing, Shenzhen's luxury properties have been performing well, with many projects nearing sell-out status, indicating a strong demand in the market [12][17]. - China Overseas has successfully launched multiple projects in Shenzhen, with a total supply of 10,845 units since 2020, leaving only 439 units unsold as of December 2025 [17][18].

Core Insights - The land market in Guangzhou and Shenzhen is experiencing a year-end surge, with significant transactions indicating a recovery in the real estate sector [1][3] Group 1: Shenzhen Land Transactions - A mini residential land plot in Shenzhen's Futian district was auctioned, marking the first publicly sold residential land in 16 years, with a total price of 792 million yuan and a premium rate of 65%, translating to a floor price of 42,700 yuan per square meter [1][2] - Another notable transaction occurred on December 8, where China Overseas Land & Investment acquired a plot in the Shenzhen Bay Super Headquarters Base for 3.186 billion yuan, achieving a floor price of 77,400 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 42.49%, setting a new high for such plots [1][4] - The competitive bidding for these plots involved major players, including state-owned enterprises and local private firms, reflecting strong market confidence despite stringent development conditions [2][3] Group 2: Guangzhou Land Transactions - In Guangzhou, a plot in Haizhu District was sold for 3.5 billion yuan, with a premium rate of approximately 27% and a floor price of about 24,400 yuan per square meter, indicating robust demand in prime locations [1][5] - The overall land market in Guangzhou is also showing signs of activity, with recent sales reflecting a mix of residential and commercial land, although the overall market remains fragmented [6][7] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the high premium rates in Shenzhen indicate a structural recovery in the real estate market, with core area land scarcity continuing to support prices [3] - The shift towards "current housing sales" models is expected to accelerate industry consolidation, favoring larger firms with stronger financial capabilities [2][3] - The total land transaction value in Shenzhen for 2025 is projected to reach 29.09 billion yuan, with an average premium rate of 32.81% across 12 residential land deals [6]