持续提升 Q2 游戏、广告超预期，预期游戏收入增速 ——腾讯控股（0700.HK）24Q2 季报点评 ⚫ 24H2 预期游戏增速持续提升，我们预计 24~26 年 IFRS 归母净利润为 1886/2184/2454 亿元（24~26 年原值为 1708/1969/2265 亿元，下调销售费用，及 因广告及投资收益好于预期上调盈利预测），24~26 年 non-IFRS 归母净利润为 2291/2665/2984 亿元。采用 SOTP 估值，给予对应目标价 422.68 港币（386.98 人 民币 HKD/RMB=0.92），维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 政策风险、游戏收入不达预期风险、广告行业竞争风险 ⚫ 24Q2 公司营业收入为 1611 亿（yoy+8%,qoq+1%）。 毛利率为 53%（yoy +5.8pp, qoq +0.7pp)。24Q2 归母净利润（IFRS）为 476 亿(yoy+82%, qoq +14%)；归母净利润（Non-IFRS）为 573 亿(yoy +53%, qoq +14%)。 ⚫ 24Q2 增值服务收入 788 亿(yoy +6%, qoq +0.2%)。其中国际市场收 ...

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腾讯控股（00700.HK）2Q24 财报点评 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_Summary] 业绩总结：腾讯 2024 年第二季度实现营收 1611 亿元，同比增长 8%；实现 Non-IFRS 净利润 573 亿元，同比增长 53%。 金融科技增速放缓，企业服务持续拓展。Q2金融科技和企业服务收入 504亿元， 同比增长 4%。其中金融科技服务收入增速有所放缓；企业服务业务收入实现双 位数同比增长，云服务收入及视频号商家技术服务费增长，企业微信商业化提 升有所贡献。 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [Table_Report] 1. 腾讯控股（0700.HK）：业务高质量发 展，利润增长强劲 (2024-05-21) 2. 腾讯控股（0700.HK）：元梦之星上线， 合家欢游戏热潮再起 (2023-12-22) 3. 腾讯控股（0700.HK）：混元大模型发 布，AI 商业化提速 (2023-09-11) 4. 腾讯控股（0700.HK）：业务高质量发 展，微信生态繁荣 (2023-08-22) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [29]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1611.17 billion yuan in Q2 2024, representing an 8% year-on-year growth, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 476.30 billion yuan, which is an 82% increase year-on-year [20]. - The report highlights that the company's high-margin businesses, such as mini-program games, video account advertising, and technology service fees, are increasing their share of revenue, thereby enhancing profitability [22]. - The company is expected to continue strengthening shareholder returns, making it an attractive investment option [22]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported revenues of 554,552 million yuan in 2022, with projections of 609,015 million yuan for 2023, and expected revenues of 669,368 million yuan, 729,277 million yuan, and 788,859 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][22]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to shareholders was 188,243 million yuan in 2022, with a forecast of 115,216 million yuan for 2023, and expected profits of 177,271 million yuan, 205,524 million yuan, and 229,608 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][22]. - **EPS**: The latest diluted EPS was 20.20 yuan, with projections of 12.36 yuan for 2023, and expected EPS of 19.02 yuan, 22.05 yuan, and 24.63 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][22]. - **P/E Ratio**: The P/E ratio is projected to be 17.04 for 2023, decreasing to 15.61 and 13.97 for 2025 and 2026 respectively [2][22]. - **ROE**: The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 14.25% in 2023, with projections of 18.35%, 17.89%, and 16.97% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][22].

请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 港股公司报告 | 公司点评 分析师声明 本报告署名分析师在此声明：我们具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格或相当的专业胜任能力，本报告所表述的 所有观点均准确地反映了我们对标的证券和发行人的个人看法。我们所得报酬的任何部分不曾与，不与，也将不会与本报告中 的具体投资建议或观点有直接或间接联系。 一般声明 除非另有规定，本报告中的所有材料版权均属天风证券股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格）及其附 属机构（以下统称"天风证券"）。未经天风证券事先书面授权，不得以任何方式修改、发送或者复制本报告及其所包含的材料、 内容。所有本报告中使用的商标、服务标识及标记均为天风证券的商标、服务标识及标记。 本报告是机密的，仅供我们的客户使用，天风证券不因收件人收到本报告而视其为天风证券的客户。本报告中的信息均来源于 我们认为可靠的已公开资料，但天风证券对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告中的信息、意见等均仅供客户参 考，不构成所述证券买卖的出价或征价邀请或要约。该等信息、意见并未考虑到获取本报告人员的具体投资目的、财务状况以 及特定需求，在任何时 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing strong business barriers and a robust ecosystem, with growth in video accounts, mini-programs, and fintech businesses [1] Core Views - The company's gross margin improvement exceeded expectations, leading to an upward revision of adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 2050/2381/2692 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 17/14/13x [1] - 2Q24 revenue reached 1611 billion yuan (yoy+8%), slightly below Bloomberg consensus of 1614 billion yuan, while non-IFRS net profit was 573 billion yuan (yoy+53%), significantly exceeding the consensus of 487 billion yuan [11][14] - Overall gross margin in 2Q24 was 53.31% (yoy+5.83pct), driven by rapid growth in high-margin revenue sources such as advertising and value-added services [13][68] Business Performance Gaming - 2Q24 online gaming revenue was 485 billion yuan (yoy+9%), in line with Bloomberg consensus of 488 billion yuan [15][26] - Domestic gaming revenue was 346 billion yuan (yoy+9%), above consensus of 336 billion yuan, driven by growth in titles like "Valorant" and "Dungeon & Fighter: Origins" [28] - International gaming revenue was 139 billion yuan (yoy+9%), slightly below consensus of 141 billion yuan [44] Advertising - 2Q24 advertising revenue was 299 billion yuan (yoy+19%), above Bloomberg consensus of 294 billion yuan, driven by growth in WeChat video accounts, long videos, and mini-programs [15][32] - Advertising gross margin was 55.64% (yoy+6.7pct), benefiting from increased revenue from WeChat video accounts and search ads [38] Fintech and Business Services - 2Q24 fintech and business services revenue was 504 billion yuan (yoy+4%), below Bloomberg consensus of 524 billion yuan, with slower growth in commercial payments and a decline in consumer loan services [13][33] - Wealth management services saw double-digit growth, while enterprise services grew by double digits, driven by cloud services and video account merchant service fees [13][34] - Fintech and business services gross margin was 47.64% (yoy+9.26pct), supported by higher-margin wealth management services and video account merchant fees [69] Social Networks - 2Q24 social network revenue was 305 billion yuan (yoy-2%), in line with Bloomberg consensus, with growth in music and long video subscriptions offset by declines in music and game live streaming [44] User Metrics - WeChat (including WeChat overseas) MAU reached 1.371 billion (yoy+3%), above Bloomberg consensus of 1.356 billion [50] - QQ mobile MAU was 571 million (yoy+0%), above consensus of 568 million [50] - Paid value-added service accounts reached 263 million (yoy+12%), above consensus of 259 million [50] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 6651/7324/8101 billion yuan, with yoy growth of 9.21%/10.11%/10.60% [14] - Non-IFRS net profit for 2024-2026 is projected at 2050/2381/2692 billion yuan, with yoy growth of 30.03%/16.10%/13.10% [14] - EPS for 2024-2026 is estimated at 19.78/20.16/21.16 yuan per share [14]

Blackrock (2.25%) 总营业收入（人民币百万元） 554,552 609,015 660,135 720,379 778,596 变动 -0.99% 9.82% 8.39% 9.13% 8.08% 经调整净利润 115,649 157,688 226,524 259,907 284,799 变动 -6.57% 36.35% 43.65% 14.74% 9.58% 经调整每股盈利（人民币元） 11.93 16.41 24.00 27.83 30.66 变动 -6.05% 37.55% 46.23% 15.97% 10.17% 股息 2.40 3.40 4.30 5.00 5.60 市盈率368.4港元（估） 28.39 20.64 14.11 12.17 11.05 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 盈利能力持续改善，游戏业务企稳回升 富达 (1.59%) 截至12月31日止财政年度 22年实际 23年实际 24年预测 25年预测 26年预测 来源: 公司资料, 第一上海预测 来源: Bloomberg 游戏业务企稳回升: 2024Q2 国际市场游戏业务录 ...

活跃用户增速放缓风险、新游审批进度风险、视频内容监管风险、内容成本快速 增加风险、渠道成本快速增加风险、竞争风险、反垄断风险、金融政策变更风险、 投资风险、估值调整风险、视频号广告及微信小游戏扩张不及预期等。 本报告的风险等级定级为 R4，仅供符合国海证券股份有限公司（简称"本公司"）投资者适当性管理要求的客 户（简称"客户"）使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。客户及/或投资者应当认识到有关本 报告的短信提示、电话推荐等只是研究观点的简要沟通，需以本公司的完整报告为准，本公司接受客户的后续 问询。 【国海证券投资评级标准】 任何形式的分享证券投资收益或者分担证券投资损失的书面或口头承诺均为无效。本公司、本公司员工或者关联 机构亦不为该机构之客户因使用本报告或报告所载内容引起的任何损失承担任何责任。 2024 年 08 月 18 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) [Table_Title] 核心业务高质量增长，利润持续强劲释放 最近一年走势 2024 年 8 月 14 日公司公告 2024Q2 财报，2024Q2 实现营收 1611 亿元 （yoy+8%, qoq+1%），营业利润 507 亿元（ ...

传媒 ——凸显韧性，游戏回暖，微信货币化持续 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -20% 0% 20% 40% HSCEI 腾讯控股 买入（维持）事件： ⚫ 腾讯 24Q2 实现营收 1611 亿元，同比增长 8%，基本符合预期；调整后经营利润 584 亿元， 同比增长 27%；调整后归母净利润 573 亿元，同比增长 53%，大超彭博一致预期（487 亿元）；自由现金流 404 亿元，同比增长 35%。主业整体符合预期；净利润大超预期原因 包括一次性的税的影响，联营合营企业贡献（根据公司财报，Q2 调整后联营合营企业权益 为 99 亿元；23 年全年/24Q1 分别为 131/55 亿元；拼多多、快手、Epic 等正向贡献较多）。 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 08 月 17 日 腾讯控股 (00700) | --- | --- | |----------------------------|-------------------------------| | 市场数据： | 2024 年 08 月 16 日 | | 收盘价（港币） | 372.60 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 6161.9 | | ...