（文/孙梅欣 编辑/张广凯） 当房地产行业发展的传统逻辑已被颠覆，全新的行业发展格局下，龙头房企纷纷努力探索新发展模式，构建起更平衡的业务组合。 经过过往的实践，龙湖在新模式上的探索已走在前列。在2024年，龙湖的经营性业务收入对集团整体收入贡献占比达到21%，已成为公司营收的重要来源和 利润的主要支撑点。 7月15日，龙湖集团发布了1-6月的业绩公告，今年上半年，龙湖由运营及服务业务组成的经营性收入约141.5亿元（含税），保持稳健增长，其中，由商业 投资、资产管理组成的运营业务亦持续向好，上半年实现收入约75亿元。 商业投资业务是龙湖最具标志性的业务之一。早在20余年前，龙湖集团就以前瞻性的视角，将商业地产作为重点发展的方向。截至今年上半年末，龙湖商业 已累计开业90座购物中心，期末整体出租率保持在96.6%的行业高位，1-6月的营业额同比实现了超20%的增长，日均客流同比增长超过9%，体量与质量均 位于行业头部。 如今，作为零售行业的重要载体，这份资产正发挥更大的意义。尤其是过去2年，在全社会"促消费、稳经济"的发展重心，以及人们对情绪消费的追求下， 消费零售需求攀升，线下商业体也迎来体量、运营、场景的 ...

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group (00960) is navigating the real estate downturn by adopting a differentiated "long-termism" approach, focusing on high-quality development and steady growth across multiple business channels [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, Longfor Group's operating revenue was approximately 14.15 billion yuan (including tax), with operational business revenue around 7.5 billion yuan and service business revenue about 6.65 billion yuan, all showing varying levels of growth [1] - Longfor Group achieved a net profit of 10.401 billion yuan for shareholders in 2024, distinguishing itself as one of the few companies to report profitability amid significant losses in the industry [1] - The contribution of operational business to total revenue increased to 21% in 2024, becoming a major source of income and profit for Longfor [1] Group 2: Operational Strategy - Longfor's operational and service business segments are seen as the core of future growth, with management aiming to establish absolute competitive advantages in four key areas [3] - The commercial segment of Longfor's operational business has introduced a new tiered product system, showcasing differentiated project advantages through "city-level, regional-level, and community-level" classifications [3] Group 3: Marketing and Consumer Engagement - Longfor Commercial has successfully launched several high-traffic commercial cases, such as the Nanning Qingxiu Tianjie, which opened in May 2025 and attracted over 680,000 visitors in its first three days, generating 27.9 million yuan in revenue [5] - The "Tianjie Huansheng Festival" event during the Dragon Boat Festival saw cumulative revenue of 1.96 billion yuan over four days, with daily revenue and foot traffic increasing by 49.7% and 24.9% year-on-year, respectively [5] Group 4: Future Expansion Plans - Longfor plans to open around 10 new projects in major first- and second-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Wuhan in the second half of 2025, while also continuing upgrades to existing projects [6] - As of the first half of 2025, Longfor Commercial maintained a high occupancy rate of 96.6%, with revenue and daily foot traffic both increasing by over 20% and 9% year-on-year, respectively [8] Group 5: Financial Health - Longfor Group has successfully repaid over 9 billion yuan in debts this year, demonstrating a commitment to maintaining healthy finances to support its business operations [8] - The company has achieved a balanced structure across its three main business segments—development, operation, and service—contributing to its resilience and stable profit margins [8]

Group 1: Housing Fund Policy - Beijing Housing Fund Management Center has announced an expansion of the pilot program for direct payment of housing rent using housing provident fund, aiming to better meet the rental housing consumption needs of contributors [1] - The number of pilot housing rental institutions has increased from 3 to 4, with the addition of Beijing Ziroom Housing Rental Co., Ltd. [1] - The pilot scope for two commercial housing rental partners has been expanded to the entire city, and the number of public rental housing pilot projects has increased to 3 [1] Group 2: Real Estate Market Trends - In June, new home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - Shanghai experienced a price increase of 6%, while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 4.1%, 5.1%, and 2.5% respectively [2] - Second and third-tier cities also saw year-on-year price declines of 3% and 4.6%, with reductions narrowing by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points respectively [2] Group 3: Company Sales Performance - China Resources Land reported a total contract sales amount of approximately 23.45 billion yuan in June, with a year-on-year decrease of 26.7% [3] - Longfor Group disclosed a total contract sales amount of 4.64 billion yuan in June, with a contract sales area of 394,000 square meters [4] Group 4: Debt Restructuring - CIFI Group's three domestic bond restructuring proposals have been approved, with a total outstanding scale of approximately 3.09 billion yuan [5] - The bondholder meetings for the restructuring were held online, with approval rates of 69.92%, 65.78%, and 85.73% for the respective bonds [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, anticipating stronger policies to stabilize the market [3][4][36]. Core Insights - The investment and sales in the real estate sector are both weakening, with expectations for more robust policies to halt the decline and stabilize the market [3][4]. - The report highlights that the investment in real estate from January to June 2025 has decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, with new starts down by 20.0% and completions down by 14.8% [4][19]. - Sales volume and prices are both declining, with sales area down by 3.5% and sales amount down by 5.5% in the same period [20][35]. - Funding sources are tightening, with a 6.2% year-on-year decline in total funding sources for real estate development [36][38]. Investment Analysis Investment Side - Real estate development investment totaled 466.58 billion yuan from January to June 2025, down 11.2% year-on-year, with June alone seeing a 12.9% decline [4][19]. - New starts and completions are also down significantly, with new starts down 20.0% and completions down 14.8% year-on-year [19][20]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate was 460 million square meters, a decrease of 3.5% year-on-year, with June seeing a 5.5% decline [20][35]. - The average selling price of properties decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with June's average price at 9,649 yuan per square meter, down 5.6% year-on-year [34][35]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 500.2 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year, with domestic loans showing a positive growth of 0.6% [36][38]. - Sales returns are weakening, with deposits and prepayments down by 16.7% year-on-year in June [36][38].

Core Viewpoint - Longfor Group announced that by the end of June 2025, the total contracted sales amount reached RMB 35.01 billion, with a contracted sales area of 2.614 million square meters [1] Group Summary - As of June, the total contracted sales amount for the month was RMB 6.46 billion, with a contracted sales area of 519,000 square meters [1] - The contracted sales amount attributable to the company's shareholders for June was RMB 4.64 billion, with a sales area of 394,000 square meters [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, with new housing prices showing a decrease in month-on-month (MoM) but a smaller year-on-year (YoY) decline. The second-hand housing prices are experiencing a similar trend, with a YoY decline narrowing while the MoM decline is expanding [8][19][26]. Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In June 2025, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -0.3%, -0.2%, and -0.3% respectively, with a total of 70 cities showing a MoM decline of -0.3%, which is a 0.1 percentage point increase in decline compared to May [14][15]. - The YoY decline for new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities was -1.4%, -3.0%, and -4.6% respectively, leading to an overall YoY decline of 3.7% for 70 cities, which is a reduction of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [14][15]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing prices in June 2025 saw a MoM decline of -0.6%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of -0.7%, -0.6%, and -0.6% respectively. This represents an increase in the decline of 0.1 percentage points compared to May [19][21]. - The YoY decline for second-hand housing prices across 70 cities was -6.1%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -3.0%, -5.8%, and -6.7% respectively, indicating a narrowing of the decline for some tiers [19][22]. Regional Performance - In June 2025, Shanghai led the new housing market with a MoM increase of +0.4% and a YoY increase of +6.0%. Among the 35 key cities, only Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Taiyuan saw YoY increases in new housing prices [26][27]. - The second-hand housing prices in June across 35 cities showed a decline, with only Xining experiencing a MoM increase of +0.1%. The overall trend indicates a consistent decline in second-hand housing prices since early 2024 [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong credit real estate companies that are well-positioned to meet the needs of improvement-oriented customers, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8][26]. - It also recommends companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group, as well as high-quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy [8][26].

Group 1 - China's Q2 GDP growth reached 5.2%, exceeding expectations, leading to a rally in Hong Kong stocks [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index surged by 2.8%, while the Hang Seng Index and the National Enterprises Index rose by 1.6% and 1.65% respectively [1][2] - Major technology stocks performed strongly, with Alibaba rising nearly 7%, Meituan and Baidu up over 4%, and Tencent increasing by 3.5% [2][4] Group 2 - The cryptocurrency sector faced challenges, with Bitcoin dropping below $117,000, leading to a decline in related stocks [2] - Real estate development investment in China fell by 11.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, impacting domestic property stocks significantly [2][13] - The construction materials and cement stocks also saw declines, with major players like Jinyu Group and Anhui Conch Cement dropping over 6% and 4% respectively [11][12] Group 3 - The innovative drug sector showed strength, with companies like BeiGene and CSPC Pharmaceutical rising over 7% [7][8] - Stablecoin-related stocks performed well, with Yunfeng Financial increasing by 19.5% and Weishi Jiajie up by 11% [9][10] - The entertainment sector saw gains, with China Star Group rising over 10% and Tencent Music increasing by over 5% [15] Group 4 - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of HKD 3.824 billion, indicating strong interest in Hong Kong stocks [18] - Analysts noted a shift in investor sentiment towards undervalued stocks, with some funds looking to capitalize on recent price corrections in major internet companies [17]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of delivery capability in the real estate industry, particularly under the "Good House" policy, which aims to enhance housing quality and customer satisfaction [2][10] - Longfor Group's "New Heart Delivery" system has been highlighted as a significant innovation in property delivery, focusing on a comprehensive service standard throughout the entire lifecycle of a property [5][10] Group 1: Delivery Performance - Longfor Group delivered nearly 40,000 quality housing units across 36 cities in the first half of 2025, achieving an overall delivery satisfaction rate of over 90% [1][5] - The "New Heart Delivery" system includes three value dimensions: "New Residence," "New Community," and "New Life," aiming to provide a holistic service experience for homeowners [2][5] Group 2: Product Lines - The high-end product line "Yunhe Song" made its debut delivery, focusing on providing an exceptional living experience for urban elites, with projects like Suzhou Dongwu Yunhe Song showcasing luxury and modern design [7][8] - The "Yuhujing" product line continues to excel, with projects like Hefei Yuhujing demonstrating high-quality aesthetics and community engagement, further solidifying Longfor's reputation in the market [9][10] Group 3: Industry Implications - The article suggests that delivery is no longer the endpoint of the development process but rather the starting point for brand reputation and long-term value in the real estate sector [2][10] - Longfor's approach serves as a model for the industry, emphasizing the need for a customer-centric philosophy that translates into measurable and executable standards throughout the property lifecycle [10]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a decline after initially rising over 2% [1] - Xinyi Solar (00968.HK) saw a drop of more than 5.3% [1] - Longfor Group (00960.HK) and SMIC (00981.HK) both fell by over 3% [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - The iBoxx China USD bond investment-grade index rose by 0.12% while the speculative-grade index increased by 0.48% last week [2] - The investment-grade yield remained stable compared to the previous week, while the speculative-grade yield rose by 0.03% [2] - The offshore bond issuance scale decreased in the primary market, while the secondary market saw slight increases in both investment-grade and high-yield bond indices [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Indicators - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, reversing the previous month's decline, while the core CPI increased by 0.7% [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% [3] - As of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion, an increase of $322 billion from May [3] Group 3: Corporate News - Kaisa Group has completed 76% of the cash repayments for its Jin Heng Wealth products, providing new solutions for outstanding amounts [25] - Longfor Group announced that the restructuring plan for its 21 domestic bonds and asset-backed securities has been approved by bondholders [25] - Times China Holdings reported that over 85.67% of its plan creditors have agreed to the proposed restructuring plan [25] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice to guide insurance funds for long-term stable investments, adjusting the assessment method for net asset return rates [2] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced measures to optimize and expand the Bond Connect program, enhancing Hong Kong's competitiveness as an offshore RMB business center [2] Group 5: Debt Issuance - Last week, 18 companies issued 21 offshore bonds totaling approximately $3.3 billion, with city investment bonds accounting for about $1.6 billion [8] - Changjiang Industrial issued over HKD 2 billion in medium-term notes, with competitive interest rates [8] - Tianchang Agricultural Development issued $90 million in bonds with a coupon rate of 6.45%, achieving a subscription rate of over four times [9]