一个不起眼的赛道，正成为不少基金经理在AI浪潮中保持定力的象征和重要持仓对象。 在市场最热、最拥挤的状态下，基金经理应该放手冲入热门赛道还是远离喧嚣独辟蹊径？券商中国记者注意到，基 于风险对冲和策略均衡，许多基金经理选择了组合平衡，在重仓半导体与AI的同时，在组合仓位中突出了对冷门赛 道鞋服股的配置。 根据基金2024年第四季度报告显示，截至去年12月末，腾讯为上述基金经理的第一大重仓股，这体现了基金经理对 AI浪潮和变革性机会并不拒绝，不过基于对冲策略，他在鞋服赛道有更多的选择，除了第十大重仓股 滔搏 公司外， 他还持有港股另一个时尚鞋服龙头股江南布衣。 半导体频频牵手鞋服，科技基金经理配置策略反差大 基金经理将科技股与鞋服赛道组合起来的策略，看起来古怪但十分流行。 有不少A股基金产品在港股和A股的消费赛道均只买鞋服股，这种策略也延伸到部分公募QDII上，有多只QDII基金 的重仓股席位，反映在A股、港股、美股三大市场的消费赛道也几乎只配置鞋服股。甚至从行业仓位比例看，已成为 一些QDII的最大行业配置对象。 对此，有基金经理解释认为，类似许多投资者往往对平台特点的互联网概念充满着巨大成长的想象力，从全球行 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" with a target price of HK$110.40, representing a potential upside of 16% from the current price of HK$95.10 [1][8]. Core Views - The report maintains the earnings forecast and "Buy" rating, raising the target price by 16% to HK$110.40, corresponding to a 19 times P/E for 2026 [8]. - Revenue and operating profit are expected to grow by 10.0% and 10.9% year-on-year in 2025, respectively, while net profit is projected to decrease slightly by 1.0% [9][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2025 is projected to reach RMB 770.5 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.0% [7][9]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 5.03, RMB 4.98, and RMB 5.46, respectively, reflecting a 1% increase for both 2024 and 2025 [2][9]. Revenue Growth Drivers - Anta brand is anticipated to achieve a revenue growth of 8.4% in 2025, driven by the expansion of Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) stores and the introduction of "super Anta" stores focusing on cost-effectiveness [7]. - FILA brand is expected to see a revenue increase of 6.4% in 2025, following adjustments in core product designs [7]. - Other brands, including Descente and KOLON, are projected to grow over 30% year-on-year in 2025 [6]. Market Position and Valuation - Anta Sports' market capitalization is approximately US$34.354 billion, with a current share count of 2,807 million [1]. - The report highlights that Anta Sports is trading at a P/E ratio of 18.0 for 2025, which is competitive compared to peers [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HK$110.40, indicating a potential upside of 16% from the current price of HK$95.10 [1][2]. Core Views - The report projects a revenue growth of 10% year-on-year for 2025, with operating profit expected to increase by 10.9% [5][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 5.03, RMB 4.98, and RMB 5.46 respectively, reflecting slight increases from previous estimates [2][8]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For Q1 2025, revenue is expected to grow by 5%-7% year-on-year, with Anta brand sales projected to increase significantly in January due to favorable conditions, while FILA brand sales are expected to remain flat [6][7]. - The overall revenue for Anta Sports in 2025 is forecasted to reach RMB 770.5 billion, driven by growth in various brands, including a 6.3% increase for Anta and a 6.4% increase for FILA [7][8]. Financial Summary - The financial data indicates that Anta Sports' revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 70.049 billion, increasing to RMB 77.052 billion in 2025 and RMB 84.265 billion in 2026 [9][12]. - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be RMB 139.8 billion, a slight decrease of 1% from the previous year, with a net profit margin of 18.1% [8][9]. Valuation Metrics - The report sets a new target price based on a 19x P/E ratio for 2026, reflecting an increase of 16% from the previous target price [8][10]. - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies is noted, with Anta Sports currently at 18.0 for 2025, indicating competitive positioning within the industry [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - AMER reported a revenue of $5.18 billion for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, with an adjusted net profit of $240 million, recovering from a loss of $340 million the previous year [2][4]. - In Q4, the company achieved a revenue of $1.64 billion, up 23.2% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit of $90 million, recovering from a loss of $120 million [2][4]. - The company expects a revenue growth of 13% to 15% for 2025, with an adjusted operating profit margin projected between 11.5% and 12% [7]. Revenue Breakdown - By product category, revenue for Technical Apparel, Outdoor Performance, and Ball & Racquet increased by 36%, 10%, and 4% respectively, reaching $2.19 billion, $1.84 billion, and $1.15 billion [7]. - By region, revenue growth was strongest in Greater China (+54%) and Asia Pacific (+46%), while the Americas saw a decline of 13% [7]. - Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) revenue grew by 43% to $2.27 billion, while wholesale revenue increased by 4% to $2.92 billion [7]. Financial Performance - The adjusted operating profit margin for 2024 was 11.1%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with Q4 margin at 13.6%, up 3.3 percentage points [7]. - The company anticipates net profits of 12 billion, 13.9 billion, and 15.4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17%, 15%, and 11% [7].

Market Overview - In February, the A-share market saw the CSI 300 index rise by 1.9%, while the textile and apparel sector increased by 1.3%[13] - The Hong Kong market's Hang Seng Index rose by 3.2%, with the textile and apparel sector index up by 2.9%[13] - The US market experienced a decline, with the S&P 500 index down by 1.4% and the consumer discretionary sector down by 9.4%[13] Brand Performance - In January, outdoor and women's apparel sales on Tmall, JD, and Douyin platforms saw significant growth, with respective year-on-year increases of 56% and 45%[19] - Notable brands such as KOLONSPORT and Bi Yin Le Fen achieved year-on-year sales growth of 81% and 101% respectively[24] - Major brands like Nike and Adidas reported year-on-year sales growth of 21% and 34% respectively on these platforms[24] Manufacturing Insights - Vietnam's textile and footwear exports grew by 3.4% and 2.7% year-on-year in January, despite high base effects[2] - Key Taiwanese manufacturers like Yu Yuan and Zhi Qiang reported over 20% growth in January, with Yu Yuan achieving record revenue for the month[2] - Nanshan Zhishang's stock surged by 81.5% due to its involvement in robotic tendon materials, indicating strong future demand[16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on undervalued Hong Kong stocks and brands with new growth potential, such as All Cotton Era and Hai Lan Home[3] - For textile manufacturing, companies like Shenzhou International and Huali Group are highlighted for their strong growth prospects and market share potential[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic weakness, international political and economic uncertainties, and significant fluctuations in exchange rates and raw material prices[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile and apparel industry [5] Core Insights - The high-end outdoor sports market remains vibrant both domestically and internationally, with a notable shift in China's consumer market towards a more competitive landscape where strong brands outperform [4][25] - The report highlights the competitive advantages and moats of leading brands, recommending investments in Anta Sports (02020, Buy), Li Ning (02331, Buy), and Xtep International (01368, Buy), while suggesting to pay attention to Biyinlefen (002832, Buy) and Baoxini (002154, Buy) [4][25] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Amer Sports reported a revenue of $5.183 billion for 2024, an 18% year-on-year increase, exceeding the guidance of 16-17% [7][8] - The adjusted operating profit margin for 2024 was 11.1%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, also above the guidance of 10.5-11% [7][8] - In Q4 2024, revenue reached $1.636 billion, a 23% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 56.1%, up 3.7 percentage points [9][19] Segment Performance - Functional apparel drove overall revenue growth in Q4 2024, with revenue of $745 million, a 33% increase year-on-year [12][14] - Outdoor apparel revenue was $594 million, up 13% year-on-year, primarily driven by Salomon brand [12][14] - Revenue from ball sports and racquet sports reached $296 million, a 22% increase year-on-year [13][14] Regional Insights - The Greater China region remains a key growth engine, with Q4 revenue increasing by 54% year-on-year, followed by the Asia-Pacific region at 52% [16][19] - The Americas and EMEA regions saw revenue growth of 15% and 8% respectively [16][19] Future Guidance - For 2025, Amer Sports projects a revenue growth rate of 13-15%, with specific guidance for functional apparel at 20%, outdoor apparel in the low double digits, and ball sports in the low to mid double digits [21][22] - The company anticipates an operating profit margin of 11.5%-12% for 2025, leaning towards the lower end of the range due to macro uncertainties [21][22] Store Expansion Plans - Amer Sports plans to open 200 stores for the Arc'teryx brand in North America, 75-100 in Europe, 75-100 in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China), and 150-200 in China by 2025 [24][22]

奢侈品 Q4 中国区表现回升，关注文化纸节后普遍提价 ——轻工制造及纺服服饰行业周报 分析师：张潇 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 分析师：郭美鑫 执业证书编号：S0740520090002 Email：guomx@zts.com.cn 分析师：邹文婕 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 Email：zouwj@zts.com.cn 分析师：吴思涵 执业证书编号：S0740523090002 Email：wush@zts.com.cn | | | | 上市公司数 | 154 | | --- | --- | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 8,987.57 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 7,726.31 | 1、《关税预期 price in，关注 AI 眼镜 和线下特卖行业机遇》2025-02-10 2、《24 年全球 AI 眼镜销量超 200 万台，嘉益、匠心、索菲亚、台华等 披露业绩预告》2025-01-27 3、《李宁重获中国奥委会合作，海 澜京东奥莱线下特卖供需两旺》 2025-01-20 轻工制造 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports, with a target price of HKD 104.50, indicating a potential upside of 27.2% from the current price of HKD 82.15 [1][6][13] Core Insights - The company experienced a recovery in retail sales in Q4 2024, with the main brand, Anta, achieving high single-digit growth year-on-year. The FILA brand also showed a strong recovery, exceeding expectations [4][12] - For 2025, Anta Sports is focusing on expanding its main brand's business model, introducing new series such as Super Anta and Anta Champion to enhance its competitive edge in various market segments [5][10] - The overall outlook for 2025 remains positive, driven by new business models and strong performance in the outdoor segment, which is expected to continue its high growth trajectory [11][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of RMB 62.36 billion in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 16.2%. Projections for 2024 and 2025 are RMB 69.66 billion and RMB 77.17 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 11.7% and 10.8% [7][16] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was RMB 10.24 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 34.9%. Forecasts for 2024 and 2025 are RMB 13.12 billion and RMB 13.70 billion, with growth rates of 28.1% and 4.4% [7][16] Brand Performance - The main brand, Anta, achieved nearly double-digit growth for the year, while the FILA brand also performed well, with a year-on-year growth in Q4 despite a high base from the previous year [4][9] - Other brands under Anta, such as Descente and KOLON, reported impressive growth rates of 50% and 60-65%, respectively, contributing to an overall growth of 40-45% for these brands [4][9] Market Strategy - Anta Sports is set to continue exploring new business models in 2025, aiming to enhance its market share and brand influence through innovative product offerings and marketing strategies [5][10] - The company is expected to leverage its established brand marketing and product development capabilities to drive future growth [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is actively transforming its brand strategy to break through the limitations of a single brand, focusing on differentiated store formats and a multi-brand operational capability [4][8] - The company aims to expand its market presence both domestically and internationally, with specific plans for store openings and revenue growth projections [68] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has over 80% of its stores operating under a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) model, enhancing its control over channel operations and inventory management [8] - The company is restructuring its store types into five levels: Arena, Palace, Elite, Standard, and Non-standard, to diversify its retail strategy [54][56] 2. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 704.70 billion, 781.21 billion, and 864.19 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +13.0%, +10.9%, and +10.6% [4][68] - Net profit estimates for the same years are 137.33 billion, 140.12 billion, and 156.73 billion CNY, with growth rates of +34.2%, +2.0%, and +11.9% [4][68] 3. Brand Strategy - The company is launching new store concepts such as "Super Anta," "Champion Store," and "0 Carbon Mission Store," each targeting different consumer segments and emphasizing unique product offerings [12][41][49] - The "Super Anta" concept aims to create a one-stop shopping experience for sports products, focusing on high-quality, cost-effective items [12][13] 4. International Expansion - The company has made strides in international markets, particularly in North America and Southeast Asia, with plans to open stores in the U.S. and expand its presence in Southeast Asia [61][66] - The partnership with Kyrie Irving has helped the company gain traction in the global sneaker market, with successful product launches and collaborations [11][65] 5. Competitive Positioning - The company is positioned as a potential leader in the market, akin to Uniqlo and Decathlon, leveraging its supply chain advantages and brand recognition [23][68] - The report highlights the importance of Olympic sponsorships and collaborations with high-profile athletes in enhancing brand image and market reach [11][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports, with a current price of HKD 78.10 and a fair value of HKD 93.67 [5]. Core Views - Anta Sports has demonstrated high operational quality in Q4, with Fila's sales recovery exceeding expectations. The main brand's revenue growth is driven by e-commerce channels and store renovations, maintaining a healthy inventory turnover ratio [8]. - The multi-brand strategy of Anta Group is showing robust development, with strong performance from brands like Descente and Kolon, indicating strong consumer purchasing power in the outdoor market [8]. - The earnings forecast for Anta Sports predicts EPS of RMB 4.70, RMB 4.81, and RMB 5.38 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a PE valuation of 18 times for 2025, leading to a fair value of HKD 93.67 per share [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 53,651 million in 2022 to RMB 81,594 million in 2026, with growth rates of 8.8%, 16.2%, 8.1%, 9.7%, and 10.4% respectively [4][10]. - EBITDA is expected to increase from RMB 12,483 million in 2022 to RMB 26,330 million in 2026 [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from RMB 7,590 million in 2022 to RMB 15,187 million in 2026, with growth rates of -1.68%, 34.86%, 29.60%, 2.26%, and 11.94% [4][10]. - The report indicates a stable gross margin, with projections of 58.2% in 2022 and increasing to 62.9% by 2026 [10]. Operational Insights - The main brand's operational quality is expected to remain stable, with online discounts maintained and a healthy inventory turnover ratio [8]. - The report highlights the successful adjustment of Fila's brand positioning, contributing to overall brand growth and maintaining healthy operational quality [8]. Market Position - Anta Sports is positioned to benefit from its strong channel management capabilities and cost control, which are expected to support steady growth in an uncertain retail environment [8].