Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that while the sales and net profit forecasts for Tmall (06110) for the fiscal year ending February 2026 remain unchanged, the net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2027 and 2028 have been reduced by 5% and 7% respectively, reflecting a 2% and 3% downward adjustment in sales forecasts to align with expectations for 2026 [1] - Citigroup has slightly raised the target price for Tmall from HKD 3.75 to HKD 3.80 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - In the Chinese sports apparel sector, Anta (02020) is preferred as the top pick, followed by Tmall, with both companies receiving a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup maintains its sales and net profit forecasts for Tmall (06110) for the fiscal year ending February 2026, but lowers net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2027 and 2028 by 5% and 7% respectively, reflecting a 2% and 3% reduction in sales forecasts to adjust for the outlook before 2026 [1] Group 1 - Citigroup raises the target price for Tmall from HKD 3.75 to HKD 3.80 while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - In the Chinese sports apparel sector, Anta (02020) is the top pick, followed by Tmall, with both rated as "Buy" [1]

智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，尽管维持安踏体育(02020)盈利预测不变，但已将估值基准调整至 26年预期市盈率，先前为25年，与该行对其他中国运动服饰公司估值更新保持一致。以20倍目标2026年 市盈率计算，将安踏目标价由109.7港元上调至112.7港元，维持"买入"评级。中国运动服饰板块偏好维 持不变，首选安踏 。 ...

花旗发表报告指，尽管维持安踏体育盈利预测不变，但已将估值基准调整至26年预期市盈率，与该行对 其他中国运动服饰公司估值更新保持一致。以20倍目标2026年市盈率计算，该行将安踏目标价由109.7 港元上调至112.7港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's sportswear sector has shown strength, with notable increases in stock prices for several companies [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Li Ning (02331.HK) saw a rise of over 4% [1] - 361 Degrees (01361.HK) increased by nearly 3% [1] - Anta Sports (02020.HK) and Bosideng International (03813.HK) also experienced upward movement in their stock prices [1]

Group 1: Luxury Goods Market - The Italian luxury goods association reports that the "crisis peak" in the Chinese market has passed, with a projected global luxury market growth of 5% by 2026, driven by recovering consumer confidence in China [3][4] - The report highlights significant market differentiation, with China expected to grow by 4%, while North America and the Middle East are projected to grow by 4.5% and 6%, respectively [3][4] - Key challenges for the industry include price dynamics, geopolitical factors, and sustainability [4] Group 2: Children's Clothing Market - The children's clothing market is experiencing accelerated concentration, with the top 10 brands expected to reach a CR10 of 31% by 2025, driven by leading brands like Balabala and Jinfa Labi [6][8] - Despite declining birth rates, the market is shifting towards a "consumption dividend," with Gen Z parents prioritizing brand, technology, and sustainability [5][8] - The market is projected to reach 473.8 billion yuan by 2025, attracting various players due to high profit margins [5] Group 3: Underwear Industry - The domestic underwear industry is showing signs of "weak recovery and strong differentiation," with major brands reporting varied revenue performance in Q3 2025 [7] - Aimer's revenue increased slightly by 0.16%, but it faced net losses due to weak mid-to-high-end demand [7] - Brands like Langsha and Huijie are experiencing growth through differentiated strategies, while others like Yimin Group's Gujin brand are struggling with revenue declines [7] Group 4: Eyewear Industry - The global eyewear market is expected to exceed $330 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 8.6%, driven by increased screen time and aging populations [6] - The Asia-Pacific region is projected to become the fastest-growing market due to population growth and urbanization [6] Group 5: Fashion and Apparel Trends - Decathlon is attempting to reshape its brand image by collaborating with the French space agency to launch a space suit, aiming to shift consumer perception from "affordable" to "high-end" [9][10] - The rise of self-media IPs has enabled brands like Yingshijifeng to achieve significant sales in the apparel e-commerce sector, although reliance on IP poses risks [11] - ANTA's recent financial performance indicates a strong focus on high-end sports apparel, with a notable increase in revenue and profit margins [12][20] Group 6: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The luxury goods market in China is expected to contract by 3%-5% this year, with a shift towards experiential consumption and a focus on health and interpersonal connections [6] - Traditional brands like Diana have struggled to adapt to changing consumer preferences, leading to their exit from the Chinese market [17] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with brands needing to innovate and enhance operational efficiency to thrive [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 12x and 18x [2][30]. Core Views - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing fluctuations in revenue, with notable declines in some manufacturers' performance due to changing international trade environments and tariff policies [1][13]. - The report anticipates a recovery in orders and shipments for apparel manufacturers in 2026, driven by improved demand and healthy inventory levels [23][28]. - Key brands like Nike are expected to show gradual improvement in their operational performance, which may positively impact their suppliers [23][24]. Summary by Sections Recent Revenue Performance - In November 2025, revenue for Feng Tai Enterprises, Ruo Hong, and Yu Yuan Group decreased by 11.8%, increased by 1.5%, and decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, respectively [1][13]. - Cumulatively from January to November 2025, Feng Tai's revenue declined by 4.9%, while Ruo Hong and Yu Yuan reported increases of 3.8% and 0.9% [1][13]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the apparel manufacturing sector is expected to see a recovery in orders in 2026, with a focus on companies with integrated and international supply chains [28][29]. - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is improving, with leading manufacturers likely to gain market share [2][27]. Key Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with a focus on companies that are expected to benefit from improved customer trends and operational efficiencies [2][28]. - Other companies to watch include Weixing Co., Kairun Co., and Jingyuan International, which are also positioned well for future growth [2][28]. Brand Performance - The report emphasizes the importance of brand performance, particularly for Nike in the Greater China region, which is expected to show a turnaround [28]. - Other recommended brands include Anta Sports and Li Ning, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 14x and 16x [28].

Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector in A-shares has underperformed the broader market since December, with textile manufacturing showing better performance than branded apparel, declining by -3.3% and -4.4% respectively [1][13] - The Hong Kong textile and apparel index rose by 2.9% in November but has since turned negative in December [1] Brand Apparel Insights - Retail sales of clothing in October grew by 6.3% year-on-year, with a stable growth rate compared to the previous month, increasing by 1.6 percentage points [2] - E-commerce performance varied significantly between categories from October to November, with outdoor leisure leading, while home textiles and personal care faced declines. Year-on-year growth rates for various categories were: outdoor (+20%), sportswear (0%), leisurewear (+8%), home textiles (-9%), and personal care (-2%) [2] - Notable brands with strong growth included Descente (74%), Lululemon (69%), and Asics (8%) in sportswear; and brands like Atour Planet (43%) and Luolai Home Textile (26%) in home textiles [2] Textile Manufacturing Insights - In November, Vietnam's textile and footwear exports faced a high base effect from the previous year, resulting in a decline of -2.6% and -3.8% respectively. China's textile exports showed a slight recovery at +1.0%, while apparel and footwear exports fell by -10.9% and -17.2% respectively [3] - The macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with fluctuations in cotton prices and a slight increase in wool prices by +4.8% month-on-month and +32.0% year-on-year in November [3] - Taiwanese manufacturers reported improved revenue in November, driven by World Cup-related orders and a return to normalcy in brand ordering rhythms [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the recovery of consumer spending and the rebound in textile manufacturing. It highlights the potential for high-end consumer recovery and the strong outlook for the light luxury outdoor segment [5][6] - Key brands recommended for investment include Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in high-end consumption and outdoor sports [6] - In textile manufacturing, companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group are highlighted as beneficiaries of tariff reductions and Nike's recovery, while New Australia and Weixing Holdings are noted for their potential gains from rising wool prices and improved order visibility [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that emerging demand is leading the way, while traditional consumption is breaking through. The year 2026, as the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, is expected to see continued implementation of consumption stimulus policies, effectively releasing residents' consumption willingness and promoting a steady recovery in consumption demand [4][11] - The report suggests that the traditional consumption industry is likely to experience a rebound, while new demands such as "new products, new channels, and new business formats" will continue to drive the rapid development of new consumption [4][11] - The report highlights the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which emphasizes the need to stimulate consumption and enhance domestic demand as a key driver of economic growth [11][12] Group 2 - In the textile and media sectors, new demand is leading to new supply, and new supply is creating new demand. The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in three segments: outdoor sports, gold jewelry, and cultural and trendy IP in 2026 [4][30] - The outdoor sports segment is identified as a growing trend, with social aspects becoming increasingly important for young consumers. The report notes that outdoor activities such as cycling, hiking, and climbing are gaining popularity [32][33] - The gold jewelry market is expected to see continued growth in consumer spending, with a positive outlook for retail sales in 2026. The report suggests focusing on leading gold jewelry brands [32][33] Group 3 - The social services sector is evolving, with a focus on leading companies that actively respond to changes in consumer demand. The report indicates that tourism and beauty industries are experiencing changes, with a shift towards rational consumption and a focus on value for money [4][30] - The food and beverage sector is expected to stabilize, with signs of recovery emerging. The report notes that the industry is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and consumer income expectations [4][30] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors are experiencing a cyclical upturn, particularly in the pig farming segment, which is expected to stabilize due to policy-driven transformations [4][5] Group 4 - The home appliance industry is characterized by resilience in demand, with policies such as "trade-in for new" supporting consumption. The report suggests looking for structural highlights within the home appliance sector, particularly in high-dividend white goods and rapidly growing new consumption categories [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of exploring new consumption trends and adapting to changing consumer preferences, particularly in the context of the ongoing economic recovery [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - A new wave of Korean fashion brands is emerging in China, characterized by rapid expansion and a short lifecycle, often referred to as "disposable brands" due to their quick rise and fall in popularity [6][29]. Group 1: Market Entry and Expansion - Three new Korean fashion brands, minjiena, lazyz, and fancy club, launched a pop-up event in Shanghai, marking their entry into the Chinese market [1]. - Rest & Recreation opened its first store in mainland China in April and has since expanded to major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [1]. - Emis has successfully entered online platforms like Xiaohongshu and Tmall, followed by physical store openings in key shopping districts [1][19]. Group 2: Decline of Established Brands - Several previously popular Korean brands, such as Mardi Mercredi and NERDY, are rapidly declining or exiting the Chinese market due to various challenges [3][30]. - Mardi Mercredi announced the closure of all its offline stores in China, while NERDY exited the market due to disputes with its Chinese distributor [3][30]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Brand Dynamics - The rapid rise and fall of these brands are linked to low brand loyalty and consumer attachment, with many young consumers seeking unique, niche products [6][17]. - The influence of K-pop culture and celebrity endorsements significantly boosts brand visibility and sales, as seen with brands like emis and Mardi [7][13]. - Young consumers are increasingly drawn to unique designs and small labels, often preferring them over established brands [17]. Group 4: Marketing Strategies - Korean fashion brands are leveraging social media influencers and KOLs to enhance brand visibility and attract consumers [19][22]. - The use of pop-up stores and engaging store designs creates a buzz and draws crowds, contributing to the brands' initial success [19][22]. Group 5: Challenges and Risks - The rapid expansion of these brands often leads to a dilution of their unique appeal, resulting in a perception of being "overexposed" or "common" among consumers [30][36]. - Many new brands lack a solid brand foundation and face quality issues, which can deter consumers from repeat purchases [31][33]. - The reliance on local distributors for rapid growth can lead to conflicts and mismanagement, as seen in the case of NERDY [41]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The long-term success of these Korean fashion brands in China will depend on their ability to build brand resilience and adapt to the complexities of the market [46].