Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company is focusing on high-quality development in the new Olympic cycle, despite short-term revenue slowdown [1] - The company has adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduced a forecast for 2027, expecting EPS of 0.92, 1.05, and 1.20 RMB respectively [2][8] - The target price is set at 20.07 HKD, based on a 20x valuation for 2025 [2][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 27,598 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7.0% [2] - Operating profit is expected to decline to 4,256 million RMB in 2023, reflecting a decrease of 21.4% year-on-year [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 3,187 million RMB for 2023, down 21.6% year-on-year [2] - The company anticipates a net decrease of approximately 10 direct stores and an increase of around 40 franchise stores in 2025 [7] - The gross margin is expected to be 48.4% in 2023, with a slight increase to 49.1% by 2027 [2][11] - The net profit margin is projected to decline from 11.5% in 2023 to 8.2% in 2025, before recovering to 9.5% in 2027 [2][11] Market and Competitive Landscape - The retail environment is becoming increasingly competitive, with intensified discounting pressures from international brands [7] - The company is expected to increase marketing expenditures in the second half of 2025 and throughout 2026 to support sustainable growth [7] - The major shareholder has shown confidence in the company's long-term prospects by increasing their stake by approximately 1.11% [7]

Summary of Li Ning Company Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Ning Company - **Date**: July 16, 2025 Key Points Industry Performance - June sales showed a month-on-month decline, with both online and offline channels experiencing negative growth due to base effects, holidays, and weather conditions [2][3] - Discounts deepened in Q2, particularly in e-commerce, impacting direct wholesale channels [2][4] - Overall gross margin faced challenges in the first half of the year, making it difficult to maintain flat margins for the entire year [2][4] Product Performance - Functional products outperformed lifestyle products, with running and fitness categories achieving double-digit growth in H1 2025, while basketball and lifestyle categories performed poorly, particularly basketball sales [2][5] - The growth in H1 was primarily driven by professional categories, with footwear performing better than apparel [2][5] - Key running shoe IPs such as "Ultra Light," "Chi Tu," and "Fei Dian" met expectations, with "Fei Dian" and "Chi Tu" performing well, while "Ultra Light" showed weaker performance [2][5] Strategic Partnerships - Li Ning signed a long-term contract with Yang Hanshen in 2023, planning to quickly launch related products during key competition periods [2][6] - No signature shoe plans currently exist, but future consideration will depend on performance, alongside enhanced personal marketing efforts [2][7] Marketing and Branding - The company is focusing on Olympic-related marketing, with the "Rong Rong Yao" series as a direct product line for the Olympics [3][7] - Future product launches will include more technology-enhanced products, expanding into other functional categories and lifestyle areas [3][7] Retail and Distribution - Approximately 100 new children's clothing stores are planned for this year, primarily targeting mid-to-low tier markets [3][9] - The number of outlet stores remains stable at around 400, with no large-scale openings planned [3][9][10] - E-commerce growth was only in the mid-single digits in Q2, falling short of expectations due to the impact of the 618 shopping festival [3][12] Financial Outlook - The company maintains guidance for flat revenue and a high single-digit net profit margin for 2025, but faces significant challenges in the second half due to weak terminal trends and intense competition [3][29] - Future plans include gradually accelerating revenue growth over the next 3-5 years, aiming for a net profit margin of at least 10% [3][29] Competitive Landscape - The company acknowledges ongoing competition from international brands like Nike, which still holds the largest market share [3][17] - Domestic brands have made significant progress in operations, technology, and design, narrowing the gap with international competitors [3][17] Cost Management - Marketing expenses are expected to rise due to Olympic sponsorship and athlete endorsements, with the marketing expense ratio projected to increase from 9.5% to a low double-digit level [3][18] - Human resource costs are also anticipated to rise slightly due to team expansion and talent acquisition [3][19] Future Strategies - The company plans to optimize store locations to control rental costs and enhance same-store sales [3][21][22] - Product assortments will be adjusted based on market tier and store type to capture business opportunities effectively [3][23][24] Segment Growth Potential - The running category is projected to maintain a 30% share of overall business, with future growth opportunities balanced against risks associated with over-reliance on a single category [3][26][28] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the Li Ning Company conference call, highlighting the current performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook within the competitive landscape of the sportswear industry.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 19.2 for 2025, based on a 20x PE ratio [1][4][7]. Core Insights - Li Ning's overall platform revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, with offline channels experiencing low single-digit decline while e-commerce channels saw mid-single-digit growth [2][4]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the running and fitness categories, both achieving high single-digit growth, while the basketball category faced a decline of over 20% due to market conditions [2][3]. - The company continues to optimize its channel structure, with a net decrease of 18 stores year-to-date, and plans to expand new store layouts as per strategy [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: 2025E at RMB 28,698 million, 2026E at RMB 30,498 million, and 2027E at RMB 31,943 million, reflecting growth rates of 0.1%, 6.3%, and 4.7% respectively [5][12]. - The forecasted EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.88, with a decline in net profit expected to RMB 2,269 million, a decrease of 24.7% compared to the previous year [5][12]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 49.2% for 2025, with a slight increase to 49.5% by 2027 [5][13].

Group 1 - Li Ning Group and Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to establish the first "Humanoid Robot Sports Science Joint Laboratory" in China, aiming to integrate sports science with cutting-edge robotics technology [1] - The joint laboratory will focus on two main research areas: data collection and analysis in humanoid robot sports science, and the application of humanoid robots with embodied intelligence technology in retail environments [1][2] - The unveiling event featured a "Tian Gong" robot runner wearing Li Ning's professional running shoes, showcasing its dynamic movement capabilities and the potential for precise simulation of human running posture to support innovative product development [1] Group 2 - Li Ning Group emphasizes the importance of sports science research and technology in developing advanced professional sports equipment, as stated by the General Manager of Shoe R&D Innovation System [2] - Anta Group has also established a "Humanoid Robot Sports Science Joint Research Base" in collaboration with Yushu Technology and Hong Kong Polytechnic University, indicating a competitive landscape in the integration of robotics and sports science [2] - The collaboration between sports brands and humanoid robot companies is a new trend, moving away from traditional sponsorship models, and aims to enhance brand exposure through innovative partnerships [3]

Core Viewpoint - The sportswear industry in Hong Kong is facing significant challenges in the second quarter of 2025, with major domestic brands experiencing a slowdown in growth due to weak consumer demand, inventory pressure, and intense price competition [2][10]. Group 1: Performance of Major Brands - Anta, Li Ning, 361 Degrees, and Xtep have all reported weakened performance in Q2 compared to Q1, with Anta and Xtep experiencing low single-digit growth [3][5]. - Anta's retail sales for its main brand showed low single-digit positive growth, while its FILA brand recorded mid-single-digit growth, both of which are slower than the high single-digit growth seen in Q1 [3][4]. - Li Ning's retail sales saw a decline in offline channels, with overall sales growth falling below expectations, indicating a challenging recovery trend [5][9]. Group 2: Market Environment - The overall consumer environment for the sportswear industry is under pressure, with a decline in transaction rates and average spending per customer, attributed to weakened consumer purchasing intent [6][7]. - In June 2025, the retail sales growth for clothing, shoes, and textiles was only 1.9%, a significant drop from previous months, highlighting the industry's struggles [8][7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition among domestic sports brands is intensifying, with international brands like Nike and Adidas increasing promotional efforts, leading to deeper discounting strategies among local brands [9][10]. - The industry is shifting focus towards outdoor segments, with brands like Anta and Li Ning making strides in high-end outdoor products, which offer higher profit margins compared to traditional sportswear [9][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the sales momentum for major sportswear companies will remain weak until at least Q2 to Q3 of 2025, primarily due to sluggish sales in lower-tier cities and increased competition [8][9]. - Despite the challenges, there are opportunities in niche outdoor markets, which are becoming a new growth area for brands looking to enhance product value [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's Q2 revenue growth is slightly slower than Q1 but meets expectations, with a small single-digit increase across all platforms [1] - The company has signed a formal agreement with the Chinese Olympic Committee, becoming the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic team from 2025 to 2028, with marketing efforts expected to ramp up starting in May [3] - The company anticipates increased resource investment in professional research and sports sponsorships, aiming for long-term positioning in the sports market [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 28.87 billion, 30.32 billion, and 31.75 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.7%, 5.0%, and 4.7% respectively [4] - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 2.36 billion, 2.81 billion, and 3.22 billion CNY, with a significant drop of 22% in 2025 followed by recoveries of 19% and 15% in the subsequent years [4] Product Performance - In Q2, the running and cross-training categories continue to lead with high single-digit growth, while the basketball category faced a 20% decline [2] - The company is expected to gradually enrich its product offerings related to basketball, especially with the promotion of the "Yushua" series shoes following Yang Hansheng's selection for the NBA [2] Marketing and Sponsorship - The company has initiated its Olympic marketing strategy with the launch of the "Glory" series products, and further marketing activities are anticipated with upcoming events like the Chengdu World Games and the Milan Winter Olympics [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's retail revenue for Q2 2025 showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, consistent with Q1 performance. Offline channels experienced a low single-digit decline, while e-commerce channels grew at a mid-single-digit rate [2][3] - The running and fitness categories continue to outperform, with expected high single-digit growth in revenue for Q2. Basketball remains under pressure, while outdoor and badminton categories are growing rapidly [2][3] - The company is focusing on a stable store strategy, with a net decrease of 18 stores to 6099 by June 30. The company plans to maintain steady expansion in store numbers throughout the year [2][3] - Marketing efforts will focus on themes related to Yang Hansheng and the Olympics, aiming to boost sales in the basketball category and enhance brand recognition [3] Financial Summary - Projected revenue growth for 2025-2027 is 1.7%, 5.3%, and 4.5%, reaching 29.15 billion, 30.69 billion, and 32.07 billion yuan respectively. Net profit is expected to decline by 12.6% in 2025, followed by growth of 6.6% and 6.1% in the subsequent years [3][4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.02, 1.09, and 1.15 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.65, 13.75, and 12.96 [4][12] - The company maintains a healthy inventory level despite a challenging consumption environment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The sales trend for the Li Ning brand in Q2 2025 has weakened slightly, falling below the company's expectations, with a low single-digit year-on-year retail revenue growth across all platforms [1][2] Group 1: Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, the online channel outperformed the offline channel, with e-commerce recording a mid-single-digit year-on-year growth, while the offline channel experienced a low single-digit decline [1] - The wholesale channel performed better than the retail channel, with offline wholesale and retail channels showing low single-digit growth and mid-single-digit decline year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2: Financial Forecasts - Based on more cautious sales assumptions, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 downwards, with expected revenues adjusted to between 29.0 billion and 30.95 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 0.3% to 5.8% [2] - The gross margin and net margin forecasts for 2025-2027 have been lowered by 0.1% to 0.5% and 0.8% to 1.0%, respectively, leading to a revised net profit estimate of 2.68 billion to 3.40 billion RMB [2] Group 3: Market Conditions - The overall industry recovery has been weak, with a strong promotional atmosphere impacting sales, particularly noted during events like the 618 shopping festival [2] - The company anticipates that the sales recovery in the second half of the year will face headwinds due to ongoing industry promotions, which are expected to pressure gross margins [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning's Q2 2025 operational performance shows mixed results, with adult sales under pressure due to a challenging consumption environment and store closures, while e-commerce sales growth has slowed compared to Q1 [1][2][3] Group 1: Sales Performance - Adult sales in Q2 2025 experienced low single-digit year-on-year growth, with offline channel sales declining low single digits and e-commerce sales growing in the mid-single digits [1] - Direct sales channels faced pressure with a year-on-year decline in Q2 2025, attributed to a significant number of store closures in the second half of 2024, resulting in 1,278 direct stores by the end of H1 2025, a net closure of 19 stores compared to the beginning of the year [1] - Wholesale channel sales grew low single digits year-on-year, with 4,821 wholesale stores by the end of H1 2025, indicating a stable performance and potential acceleration in store openings in the second half of the year [1] Group 2: E-commerce and Children's Segment - E-commerce sales growth in Q2 2025 slowed compared to Q1, attributed to a weaker overall sales performance during the 618 shopping festival, with Q2 e-commerce sales growing in the mid-single digits compared to low double digits in Q1 [2] - Li Ning's children's clothing segment, Li Ning YOUNG, is expected to outperform adult sales with steady growth, having 1,435 stores by the end of Q2 2025, a net closure of 33 stores since the beginning of the year [2] Group 3: Financial Outlook - The company is projected to have flat revenue growth in 2025, with a 21% decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, primarily due to increased marketing expenses [3] - Li Ning is focusing on product and marketing strategy optimization, including signing with the Olympic Committee for brand marketing, which may enhance brand influence [3] - The company aims to strengthen its core categories of running and basketball while expanding into other sports categories, which is expected to support long-term growth [3]

Company Overview - In Q2 2025, the retail revenue of the Li Ning brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) grew at a low single-digit percentage year-on-year, with a net increase of 11 retail points during the quarter [1] - The wholesale channel continued to outperform direct sales, with healthy inventory levels despite pressure on discounts due to market fluctuations [1] - The retail revenue from offline direct sales declined at a mid-single-digit percentage year-on-year, with a net decrease of 13 retail points, while the offline wholesale channel saw low single-digit growth and a net opening of 24 retail points [1] Product Performance - In terms of product categories, the running category saw high single-digit year-on-year growth, although the growth rate slowed compared to Q1 2025, which benefited from sponsorship of events like the Beijing Marathon [1] - The fitness category continued to perform well with high single-digit year-on-year growth, while the sports lifestyle category stabilized with flat year-on-year performance [1] - The basketball category experienced a decline in line with industry trends, while emerging categories such as outdoor and badminton maintained healthy growth [1] Discount and Inventory Management - Discounts in both online and offline channels deepened year-on-year at a low single-digit percentage, but the company maintained a healthy inventory level, with a channel inventory-to-sales ratio of approximately 4x as of the end of June [1] Future Outlook - Since July, retail has continued to fluctuate, with pressure on offline revenue and discounts for the Li Ning brand [2] - In the second half of the year, the company plans to increase marketing and product investment around the theme of "Olympics and Technology," including activities related to Olympic sponsorship and new product launches in various categories [2] - The management maintains guidance for 2025 revenue to be flat year-on-year and a high single-digit net profit margin [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 0.92 and 1.07 HKD respectively, with the current stock price corresponding to 16x and 14x the 2025 and 2026 P/E ratios [2] - The target price remains at 20.82 HKD, implying a 30% upside potential compared to the current stock price, corresponding to 21x and 18x the 2025 and 2026 P/E ratios [2]