文｜ 闰然 编辑｜ 何子维 视觉 | 顾芗 在17岁男孩的小便门事件中，身为受害者的海底捞，却成为了众矢之的。 从结果上看，海底捞不仅道歉，还不惜大方地掏出上千万的天价赔偿金——对4109单顾客，进行10倍补 偿。 但回顾整个事件便会发现，或因海底捞过度想要呈现"服务至上""消费者至上"的完美形象，反而对公众 的愤怒失去了判断，导致其公关策略犯了糊涂。 它宽容了犯事者，却将顾客架在对立面，顺风翻盘的局势被打成了逆风。 "老好人"海底捞 一则让人生理不适的视频在网上流传——2月24日凌晨，两个17岁的男孩，在海底捞上海外滩店聚餐， 醉酒后站上餐桌，向火锅内小便。 3月6日之后，视频火了。 海底捞和消费者，瞬间成了此次事件的直接受害者。 但事关未成年人，海底捞没有第一时间锚定受害者的身份，而是针对始作俑者，采取了原谅的态度，表 示要给他们一个接受教训与成长的机会，并且还呼吁大家避免对其个人及家庭进行不当传播或攻击，并 强调谴责并追究"恶意传播者"的责任。 但不明是非的大度，时机显然不对，共情对象也错了——未成年人公然挑衅公序良俗，向火锅内小便， 这是极为不文明的行为，影响十分恶劣。但海底捞不能保证消费者的用餐安全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent crisis faced by Haidilao and how the company effectively managed the situation through a significant compensation strategy and a shift in public relations approach [2][5][19]. Group 1: Incident Overview - Haidilao initially responded poorly to a crisis involving a customer incident, which led to public outrage and a perception that the company was not supporting its customers [2][28]. - The first response from Haidilao was criticized for being dismissive and not addressing the concerns of other customers, which escalated the crisis [28][31]. Group 2: Compensation Strategy - Haidilao's subsequent response included a remarkable compensation plan where all orders from February 24 to March 8, totaling 4,109 orders, were made free of charge, along with a tenfold compensation for affected customers [10][20]. - The company also committed to covering all legal consequences and pursuing legal action against the minor involved in the incident, showcasing a strong stance against irresponsible behavior [12][13][38]. Group 3: Public Relations and Brand Image - The article emphasizes that Haidilao's approach transformed a potential crisis into a marketing opportunity, effectively turning the situation into a positive advertisement for the brand [19][47]. - By taking decisive action and demonstrating a willingness to compensate customers significantly, Haidilao reinforced its commitment to customer satisfaction and safety, which could enhance its reputation in the competitive hot pot market [22][40]. Group 4: Industry Implications - The article suggests that Haidilao's actions set a new standard in the restaurant industry, challenging competitors to match its level of customer care and compensation [44][46]. - The company's ability to handle the crisis effectively may influence how other businesses approach similar situations in the future, potentially leading to a shift in industry practices [49].

Core Viewpoint - The incident involving a customer urinating in a hot pot at Haidilao has led the company to issue an apology and compensation, highlighting operational issues within the company [1][6]. Compensation and Apology - On March 12, 2025, Haidilao apologized and announced full refunds for 4,109 customers who dined at the Shanghai Bund location between February 24 and March 8, along with additional cash compensation amounting to ten times the order value [1][2]. - The total compensation is reported to exceed 10 million yuan [2]. Incident Details - The "urination incident" originated from a video posted online showing a man urinating into a Haidilao hot pot [3]. - On February 24, two men urinated into the hot pot at the Shanghai Bund store, and the management had no prior contingency plans for such incidents, leading to a delayed response [4]. - Haidilao reported that it took time to identify the incident's location and involved local police for assistance, confirming the incident occurred at their Shanghai Bund store [5]. Operational Issues - The incident has exposed operational weaknesses within Haidilao, particularly in crisis management and public relations [6]. - The company's legal department's response on March 8 shifted the focus from the perpetrators to those spreading the video, which resulted in negative public backlash [7][8]. - There appears to be a lack of unified strategy within the company regarding external communication [9]. Management and Future Considerations - Haidilao acknowledged the challenge of quickly identifying the incident's location due to the absence of surveillance in private dining rooms [10]. - Suggestions for improvement include marking private rooms or enhancing decor to aid in management and customer safety [11]. - Despite the incident, the company is seen as a victim and has potential for growth in the competitive restaurant market [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company has taken responsibility for a recent incident at its Shanghai Bund store, where two customers urinated in a hot pot, leading to significant public outrage and a commitment to refund affected customers and pursue legal action against the perpetrators [1][3][4]. Refund and Compensation - The company will fully refund the meal costs for 4,109 customers who dined at the Shanghai Bund store between February 24 and March 8, and will provide an additional cash compensation of ten times the order amount [2][3][4]. - Refunds for payments made via WeChat, Alipay, and UnionPay will be processed by March 12, with expected completion within seven working days [4]. Incident Details - The incident occurred on February 24, 2025, when two intoxicated minors urinated in the hot pot during their meal, and the video was later shared online [2][3]. - The company acknowledged a lack of preparedness for such incidents, which contributed to the failure to maintain a safe dining environment [2][3]. Legal Actions - The company has filed a civil lawsuit against the two individuals involved in the incident, seeking to hold them accountable for their actions [1][3]. Stock Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 14.62% in February 2025, and further gains in March [5][6]. - The company reported record high revenues and core operating profits for the first half of 2024, with total revenue reaching RMB 21.491 billion, a 13.8% increase year-on-year [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company has responded to a viral incident involving customers misbehaving in one of its restaurants, emphasizing its commitment to maintaining a safe and hygienic dining environment while also addressing the legal implications for those involved [2][3]. Group 1: Incident Response - The company strongly condemns the behavior of individuals who filmed themselves urinating in a hot pot, asserting its right to pursue legal action against malicious spreaders of the video [2]. - The company has replaced all cooking and dining utensils in the affected restaurant and conducted thorough cleaning and disinfection [2]. - The local police have confirmed that the incident occurred on February 24, 2025, involving two intoxicated minors who were subsequently detained [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company's stock price has increased over 20% since the beginning of the year, reflecting a positive market trend [3]. - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 21.491 billion, a 13.8% increase year-on-year, achieving a historical high [3]. - The company served over 209.9 million customers across its restaurants, with an overall table turnover rate of 4.2 times per day [3]. - The company's profit for the same period was RMB 2.033 billion, a decrease of 10.0% compared to the previous year, primarily due to changes in foreign exchange gains and the cancellation of a tax incentive [3]. - The core operating profit, measured under non-IFRS standards, was RMB 2.799 billion, reflecting a 13.0% increase year-on-year [3]. - As of June 30, 2024, the company operated 1,343 restaurants, with 1,320 located in mainland China and 23 in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [3]. - The company plans to significantly increase the number of new openings in the second half of 2024, leveraging improved operational management capabilities [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid expansion of Haidilao's sub-brands in the competitive restaurant industry, highlighting both successes and failures of various brands under different companies, and emphasizes a shift towards cautious and strategic growth in the face of market challenges [1][19]. Summary by Sections Haidilao's Sub-brands - Haidilao has launched several sub-brands, including "Haini Beef Spicy Hotpot" and "Congqian Yinyuan Claypot Dishes," with plans to open 25 and 1 locations respectively in 2024 [1][2]. - The sub-brand "Yanquan" has opened at least 30 locations since its launch, focusing on grilled meat with a unique offering of "grilled meat + fruit" [4]. - Other sub-brands have been more cautious, with many still in the market validation phase [4]. Industry Trends - The restaurant industry has seen a trend of rapid openings and closures, with many brands failing to establish a sustainable presence [6][10]. - For instance, the tea brand "Chamao" launched by Kudi closed 25 stores, reflecting a high closure rate of 22.32% [7]. - High-end brands like "Nawen Dashi is Chef" have also struggled, leading to their closure within months [11]. Market Challenges - The overall performance of major restaurant brands has declined, with significant drops in same-store sales reported for brands like Taier and Song Hotpot [11]. - Taier's average monthly sales per store fell from approximately 800,000 yuan to 600,000 yuan, indicating a troubling trend for profitability [11]. Strategic Shifts - There is a noticeable shift in strategy among restaurant giants, moving from aggressive sub-brand expansion to more measured and innovative approaches within existing brands [12][19]. - Companies are focusing on micro-innovations and leveraging existing supply chains to reduce costs and improve operational efficiency [17]. - The emphasis is now on understanding consumer needs and maintaining a competitive edge in core areas rather than expanding into numerous sub-brands [19]. Conclusion - The article concludes that the future of the restaurant industry will depend on brands' ability to adapt to market conditions, understand their consumers, and maintain a stronghold in their core competencies [19].

Core Insights - The popularity of hot pot among young people is declining, with many opting for alternatives due to factors like high prices, long wait times, and the emergence of healthier or cheaper options [21][22][35]. Group 1: Hot Pot Preferences - The most popular hot pot base among young people is spicy hot pot, favored by 74.2% of respondents, followed by Chaozhou beef hot pot at 57.5% and tomato hot pot at 40.4% [7][8]. - Preferences vary by age group, with 95s showing a strong preference for spicy hot pot (77.6%), while 00s lean towards tomato hot pot (over 50%) [9][10]. - Regional preferences also play a role, with different cities favoring specific types of hot pot, such as spicy hot pot in Chengdu and tomato hot pot in Suzhou [12][14]. Group 2: Hot Pot Dining Frequency - The frequency of hot pot dining among young people is decreasing, with an average of less than two visits per month, particularly among the younger age groups [24][25]. - The average score for hot pot cravings is lowest among 00s, indicating a generational shift in interest [22][24]. Group 3: Brand Preferences - Haidilao is the most frequented hot pot brand, chosen by 65.6% of respondents, followed by Xiaolongkan at 19.2% and Jiabujia at 18.7% [27][28]. - While taste is the primary factor influencing brand choice (90.2%), other factors like price, freshness, and wait times are becoming increasingly important [30][29]. Group 4: Market Trends - The hot pot market is facing competition from emerging dining trends such as small hot pots, grilled fish, and mala tang, which are gaining popularity due to their lower price points and convenience [40][41][43]. - The number of small hot pot establishments is expected to grow significantly, with a projected annual growth rate of 33.5% [40]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior - Young consumers are becoming more price-sensitive, with over half willing to pay between 100-200 yuan per person for hot pot, and nearly 40% preferring options under 100 yuan [35][36]. - The rise of "one-person meals" and the decline of large group dining indicate a shift in social dining habits among young people [45][56].

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolving preferences of young consumers regarding hot pot, highlighting a shift in taste and dining frequency, as well as the emergence of alternative dining options. Group 1: Hot Pot Preferences - The most popular hot pot base among young people is "spicy hot pot," favored by 74.2% of respondents, followed by "Chaozhou beef hot pot" at 57.5% [2][3] - Different age groups exhibit varying preferences, with 77.6% of post-95s favoring spicy hot pot, while over 50% of post-00s prefer tomato hot pot [5][6] - Regional preferences show that spicy hot pot is most popular in Chengdu, while other cities have their own favorites, such as sour soup hot pot in Guangzhou and tomato hot pot in Suzhou [8][10] Group 2: Hot Pot Ingredients and Dipping Sauces - Beef is the most favored hot pot ingredient, chosen by 86.6% of young consumers, followed by shrimp paste at 57.1% and lamb at 53.0% [11][12] - The most popular dipping sauce is sesame oil, with a 62.8% preference, followed by minced garlic and sesame paste [14][15] Group 3: Dining Frequency and Brand Preferences - Despite a strong interest in hot pot, the frequency of dining out has decreased, with many young people eating hot pot less than twice a month [21][22] - "Haidilao" is the leading hot pot brand, preferred by 65.6% of respondents, indicating its strong market position [23][24] Group 4: Factors Influencing Hot Pot Choices - Key factors influencing hot pot choices include taste (90.2%), freshness of ingredients (60.9%), and price (76.0%), with waiting time also becoming a significant concern [26][27] - Young consumers are increasingly price-sensitive, with over 50% willing to pay between 100-200 yuan per person for hot pot, and nearly 40% preferring options under 100 yuan [32][34] Group 5: Emerging Trends in Dining - The article notes a rise in alternative dining options such as small hot pots, grilled fish, and skewers, with small hot pot establishments growing at a rate of 33.5% [36][37] - The shift towards "one-person meals" reflects changing consumer behavior, as young people seek more affordable and convenient dining experiences [43][55]

Summary of Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call primarily discusses **Haidilao**, a prominent player in the **hot pot restaurant industry** in China, and the broader **Chinese dining industry**. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Environment**: The overall economic environment for the dining industry remains uncertain, yet the hot pot segment continues to show stable growth, maintaining its position as the largest subcategory within Chinese dining [6][7][8]. 2. **Competitive Landscape**: The competition in the restaurant sector has intensified, with a higher rate of store closures compared to openings from 2022 to 2024. This indicates a challenging environment for many players, but established brands like Haidilao are leveraging their supply chain advantages to maintain stability [7][8][9]. 3. **Consumer Trends**: There is a notable increase in the consumption of higher-priced dining options, contradicting the trend of consumption downgrade observed in other sectors. This suggests that consumers are willing to pay a premium for quality dining experiences [10][11]. 4. **Company Performance**: Haidilao has demonstrated strong operational capabilities, with a reported revenue growth rate of 28% and a profit growth rate of 42%. The company remains a leader in the industry despite facing challenges during the pandemic [12][21]. 5. **Strategic Adjustments**: The company is shifting towards a more cautious expansion strategy, focusing on operational efficiency and management refinement. This includes closing underperforming stores and enhancing the management system to ensure better decision-making regarding new openings [13][15][18]. 6. **Future Growth Plans**: Haidilao plans to resume store expansion once operational metrics, such as table turnover rates, reach satisfactory levels. The company is also exploring new brand development opportunities to diversify its offerings [18][20]. 7. **Investment Outlook**: Despite a challenging economic backdrop, Haidilao's core business remains robust, with strong cash flow and a potential dividend payout ratio of 100% in 2024. The company's valuation is expected to have significant upside potential as it resumes expansion and new brand initiatives [21][22]. Other Important Insights - The management team has undergone changes, with a new CEO taking over, which may influence the company's strategic direction and operational focus [15][16]. - The company is implementing a new performance evaluation system that emphasizes operational efficiency and profitability, which could enhance overall performance [14][15]. - The report suggests that Haidilao's valuation could rebound significantly if the company successfully navigates the current challenges and capitalizes on growth opportunities in the future [22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Haidilao has successfully navigated through operational challenges and has returned to profitability, achieving record revenue and profit in 2023, thus reaffirming its position as a leader in the Chinese dining sector [5][7][9] - The report discusses the ongoing growth potential of Haidilao's hot pot business and the strategic introduction of new brands under the "Red Pomegranate Plan" to enhance growth avenues [5][8][9] Summary by Sections 01 Hot Pot Market: The Largest Segment in Chinese Cuisine - The hot pot market is projected to exceed 590 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 7.2% from 2024 to 2028 [6][14] - Sichuan and Chongqing hot pot dominate the market, accounting for over 66% of the segment's revenue in 2023 [6][14] 02 Haidilao: Organizational Evolution and Resurgence - From 2015 to 2023, Haidilao's revenue grew at a CAGR of 28%, and net profit grew at a CAGR of 42%, with 2023 revenue reaching 41.5 billion yuan and net profit at 4.5 billion yuan [7][9] - The company underwent significant organizational restructuring through the "Woodpecker Plan" and "Hard Bone Plan," which helped it recover from previous operational setbacks [7][9] 03 Growth Outlook: Improvement in Same-store Sales and Expansion of New Brands - The report anticipates improvements in same-store sales, with projected table turnover rates increasing from 4.1 to 4.3 times per day from 2024 to 2026 [8] - Haidilao plans to expand its store count to between 1,902 and 1,998 locations over the next five years, with an expected annual net increase of about 65 stores [8] - The new brand "Yanjing Barbecue" is expected to accelerate its development, with projections of adding 50 to 80 new locations annually from 2025 to 2027 [8] 04 Investment Recommendations: A Turning Point in Operations and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 45.1 billion yuan, 50.5 billion yuan, and 55.6 billion yuan for 2024 to 2026, reflecting growth rates of 0.4%, 11.8%, and 10.2% respectively [9] - The target price for Haidilao is set at a PE ratio of 16-18x for 2025, corresponding to a market value of 87.8 to 98.7 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 12.4% to 26.4% from the latest closing price [9]