2025Q4 业绩前瞻：零售承压见底，新业务亏 损收窄 买入（维持） 证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,084,662 | 1,158,819 | 1,307,627 | 1,380,807 | 1,466,767 | | 同比（%） | 3.67% | 6.80% | 12.84% | 5.60% | 6.23% | | 归母净利润（百万元） %） 净利润（百万元） 同比Non-（GAAP | 35,200 | 47,827 | 26,305 | 28,935 | 35,590 | | 同比（%） | 24.73% | 35.90% | -45.00% | 10.00% | 23.00% | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 11.1 | 15.0 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 11.2 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） PE ...

Core Insights - The primary focus of consumers during the Spring Festival is on gifts for elders, with 78% of searches related to "gifts for elders" [1] - There is a significant shift in consumer behavior towards selecting gifts based on the actual needs and preferences of elders, emphasizing practicality and frequent use [1] Group 1: Consumer Preferences - 47.1% of consumers prioritize health and safety when selecting gifts for elders, followed closely by 46.8% considering the actual needs and preferences of the elders [1] - 77.2% of consumers are choosing nutritional supplements as gifts, indicating a more targeted and refined approach compared to traditional gift-giving [1] Group 2: Trends in Gift Selection - 73.5% of consumers are interested in selecting smarter and more convenient electronic products for elders, focusing on features like health monitoring and assistance in daily tasks [2] - The overall search volume for gift boxes has increased by over 60% since the launch of the Spring Festival shopping event, with specific categories like nut gift boxes seeing a tenfold increase [2] Group 3: Health and Practicality - 83.6% of consumers are opting for food gift boxes, reflecting a significant trend towards "health return" in gift selection [2] - The essence of gift-giving is shifting from mere presentation to practical care that aligns with the daily needs of elders, emphasizing comfort and safety [2]

随着春节临近，家政服务市场迎来订单量激增，部分项目已经爆单。 "油烟机清洗的订单一直排到大年三十，根本忙不过来。"京东家政家电清洗师侯建峰节前的订单日程已经全部排 满，他决定春节留岗以获得更高的收入。 侯建峰的感受不是个例。随着春节临近，家政服务市场迎来订单量激增，部分项目已经爆单。 仲作宇同时表示，为了应对增长的需求，公司已经做好保洁师的留岗准备，每个城市都有相应的储备。以上海为 例，春节期间有超过100位保洁师留岗，预计每位保洁师在春节期间都是满单状态，留岗保洁师的收入预计相较 于日常增长50%。 多个平台的数据显示，近期保洁订单增长迅速。据京东家政数据显示，春节前高峰时段，擦玻璃、油烟机清洗等 订单较日常增长10倍以上，春节留守岗位的保洁师预约都已排到大年三十。 美团数据显示，近两周，"家政"关键词搜索量环比增长超158%，评论讨论量环比增长82%。细分需求来看，保洁 类服务增长最为快速。"保洁上门"搜索量环比增长174%，"家政保洁擦玻璃"搜索量环比增长254%，"深度保 洁"搜索量环比增长260%。 订单的增长也带来了保洁师收入的增长。仲作宇表示，近期保洁师人均收入环比近两周上涨约70%，同比去年同 ...

Group 1 - A total of 78 stocks reached a 52-week high as of February 3, with notable performers including Asia Pacific Financial Investments (08193) at 57.14%, Chao Wei Holdings (08059) at 36.00%, and Asia Backup (08290) at 33.33% [1] - The closing prices for the top three stocks that reached new highs were 0.550, 0.052, and 0.024 respectively, with their highest prices being 0.550, 0.068, and 0.036 [1] - Other significant stocks that reached new highs include Huameilele (08429) with a high rate of 20.37% and Haode Holdings (08149) at 17.65% [1] Group 2 - The report also lists stocks that reached 52-week lows, with the worst performer being Gaodi Holdings (01676) at -10.00%, followed by Huajian Medical (01931) at -9.29% and Electronic Trading Group (08036) at -9.09% [3] - The closing prices for the stocks that reached new lows include 0.340, 1.280, and 0.021 respectively, with their lowest prices being 0.315, 1.270, and 0.020 [3] - Other notable stocks that reached new lows include Controllon (01912) at -8.93% and Cool Link (08491) at -8.11% [3]

2月1日，2026中国企业改革与发展研究会年会在北京举办，围绕企业改革升级与产业链提质增效展开深度探讨，京东政企业务受邀出席。 会上举行了"中国企业改革发展优秀成果"发布仪式，京东政企业务申报的《数智化驱动"业采融合"体系创新与实践》从716项受理成果中脱颖 而出，获得2025年"中国企业改革发展优秀成果"评选一等奖。值得一提的是，京东成为该评选中独立申报的特等奖及一等奖获奖单位里唯一民 营企业。 "业采融合"正成为串联起智能化、绿色化、融合化发展的核心纽带，既是大型企业筑牢供应链韧性、提升核心竞争力的关键路径，也能为中小 企业破解发展瓶颈、实现数智升级提供精准支撑。 本次年会还为最新设立的"专精特新企业培育发展工作委员会"举行了揭牌仪式，京东政企业务成为副主任委员单位。作为国家中小企业公共服 务示范平台，京东政企业务始终服务于中小、民营企业客户专精特新和高质量发展，并坚持以"业采融合"为底层逻辑，构建数智化采购降本增 效、开设企业入驻京东的绿色通道、免息账期服务支持、全体系能力开放等多个方面助力模式，打造大中小融通生态。 目前，依托多元化优商优品供给、数智化采购平台支撑、全场景服务覆盖能力、全国性物流履约网 ...

Core Insights - JD's Qixian Supermarket in Beijing's Huiju store has become a significant driver of offline consumption, attracting nearly 150,000 visitors in its first three days of operation since January 30 [1][3] Group 1: Customer Engagement and Popularity - The store's opening has generated substantial buzz on social media, with customers sharing experiences of long lines and high product demand, making it a popular "check-in" location [3] - Customers have reported overwhelming crowds, with some likening the experience to the Spring Festival travel rush, indicating strong consumer interest and engagement [4] Group 2: Product Offerings and Freshness - The supermarket's success is attributed to its focus on high-quality products that meet consumer demands, particularly the "24-hour fresh product matrix," which ensures that items are delivered from farm to shelf within 24 hours [8] - Freshly cut beef, available within 3-6 hours post-slaughter, has also been a hit, with customers appreciating the lack of additives and the freshness of the product [11] Group 3: Sales Performance - The store sold over 10 tons of imported durian on its opening day, showcasing the popularity of its fruit offerings [13] - High-demand items include live king crabs priced at 799 yuan each and fresh salmon, which have become popular choices for family gatherings [15] Group 4: Strategic Expansion - With the opening of the Beijing Huiju store, JD's Qixian Supermarket has successfully implemented its innovative "1+N" model, consisting of one central store and multiple satellite stores, marking a significant step towards stable and scalable operations in the instant retail sector [19]

Group 1: Core Insights - Talent density is a key factor in capital pricing within the AI sector, with high valuations reflecting the future value that talent can create [2] - The second wave of talent migration in AI was triggered by the resurgence of interest in the industry following the launch of ChatGPT in 2022 [4][5] - The "AI Six Dragons" have attracted over 10 billion in capital investments between 2023 and 2024, with companies like Zhipu and MiniMax seeing valuations exceed 20 billion [5][11] Group 2: Talent Movement - High-end talent is increasingly flowing back to major tech companies, with significant salary increases reported, such as algorithm engineers receiving up to a 30% salary boost or even doubling their pay when moving to larger firms [11] - The talent flow from the "AI Six Dragons" indicates a trend where technical roles are returning to big companies, while product and business roles are more inclined to pursue entrepreneurial ventures [6][11] - Major companies like ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba are actively recruiting top AI talent, with reports of salaries reaching up to 10 million for new graduates [10][11] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The "Hundred Model War" began in March 2023, with various companies rapidly iterating and releasing new models, reflecting the competitive nature of the AI landscape [12][16] - By the end of 2023, the "AI Six Dragons" had expanded significantly, with Zhipu AI growing to over 400 employees, 70% of whom are in R&D [20] - ByteDance's strategic entry into the AI market, including the launch of its Doubao model, marked a significant shift in the competitive dynamics among AI companies [21][24]

Group 1 - The market is expected to enter a medium to long-term consolidation phase after a short-term momentum decline [10] - The Shanghai government has initiated a program to purchase second-hand housing for affordable rental housing projects, targeting new citizens, young people, and graduates [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has approved a new national standard for automotive door handles, set to be implemented in 2027, addressing safety and usability issues [5] Group 2 - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have released guidelines for the construction of a low-altitude economy standard system, aiming for over 300 standards by 2030 [3] - The Ministry of Finance has introduced a temporary method for long-term asset input tax deduction, allowing full deduction for mixed-use assets upon purchase [4] - The stock of Guokai Military Industry has experienced significant price fluctuations, with a recent announcement clarifying that its commercial aerospace projects are still in the R&D phase and have minimal impact on revenue [7]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,954.92, up by 179.35 points or 0.67% as of February 2, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 27,021.10 and a low of 26,800.30 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 40.725 million shares [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 139.961, increasing by 3.91% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 595.694, down by 0.47% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] Stock Price Movements - Tencent Holdings: Latest price HKD 598.500, down by HKD 7.500 or 1.24% [3] - Alibaba Group: Latest price HKD 163.300, down by HKD 5.900 or 3.49% [3] - HSBC Holdings: Latest price HKD 134.700, down by HKD 1.900 or 1.39% [3] - AIA Group: Latest price HKD 89.050, down by HKD 1.300 or 1.44% [3] - Meituan: Latest price HKD 94.850, down by HKD 2.350 or 2.42% [3] - BYD Company: Latest price HKD 91.000, down by HKD 6.750 or 6.91% [3] - Kuaishou Technology: Latest price HKD 77.000, down by HKD 3.150 or 3.93% [3]

Core Insights - The home service market is experiencing a surge in demand as the Spring Festival approaches, with a significant increase in orders for essential services like cleaning and appliance maintenance [1] - JD Home Services has launched a "100 Cities, 200,000 Recruitment Plan" to recruit 100,000 cleaners and 100,000 appliance cleaning specialists across 180 cities, aiming to meet the high demand during the festive season [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Recruitment - The order volume for services such as window cleaning and range hood cleaning has increased by over 10 times compared to regular days during the peak period before the Spring Festival [1] - JD Home Services is implementing a comprehensive training system to ensure high-quality service and professional development for workers, including free training programs [1] Group 2: Service Offerings and Training - In addition to regular cleaning and appliance services, JD Home Services is offering diverse services such as pet care during the Spring Festival to cater to specific customer needs [1] - The training framework includes recruitment, skills training, skills assessment, and employment services, ensuring a full-cycle talent development system [1] Group 3: Employee Recognition and Welfare - JD Home Services has invested over 10 million yuan in recognizing outstanding cleaners with awards and prizes, including 65-inch televisions, to enhance their sense of achievement [2] - The company has launched a "Hand Care Plan" to provide hand care gift boxes to thousands of cleaners, acknowledging their efforts in maintaining cleanliness for families [2]