Core Viewpoint - Baosteel Co., Ltd. is expanding its steel production capacity through strategic investments, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and product quality while navigating a challenging market environment [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Capacity Expansion - Baosteel announced an investment of 9 billion yuan to acquire a 49% stake in Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., which will increase its controlled steel production capacity to over 80 million tons [1]. - The company plans to achieve a steel production capacity of 80 to 100 million tons by 2025, compared to China's total crude steel output of approximately 1.005 billion tons last year [1]. - Baosteel also acquired a 48.6% stake in Shandong Steel Group Rizhao Co., Ltd. for 10.703 billion yuan, making it the second-largest shareholder [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the previous year, Baosteel reported revenue of 322.1 billion yuan, a 6% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.3 billion yuan, down 38%, marking the lowest profit since 2015 [2]. - Despite the decline, Baosteel remained the most profitable listed steel company in China, while Maanshan Iron & Steel reported a loss of 4.17 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Strategic Product Development - Baosteel's previous product strategy was "1+1+N," focusing on automotive sheets, silicon steel, and other high-margin products, which accounted for 60% of total sales [3]. - The company has revised its product strategy to "2+2+N," adding long products and thick plates, with a sales target of 32.59 million tons for this year [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Export Performance - The domestic steel industry is expected to see a 2% decline in total demand this year, with construction steel demand continuing to decrease while manufacturing steel demand shows slight growth [4]. - Baosteel's steel exports reached a record high of 6.07 million tons last year, accounting for 12% of total sales, with a target of maintaining exports above 6 million tons this year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a slight recovery in Q1 2025, indicating a mixed performance trend [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 322.116 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.60% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.362 billion yuan, down 38.36% year-on-year - In Q4 2024, revenue was 79.26 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.43% year-on-year and 0.43% quarter-on-quarter - For Q1 2025, revenue was 72.88 billion yuan, down 9.82% year-on-year and 8.05% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit increased to 2.434 billion yuan, up 26.37% year-on-year and 64.49% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Sales and Margins - Steel sales in 2024 were 51.59 million tons, a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year - The average product price in 2024 was 4,507 yuan/ton, down 6.89% year-on-year - The gross margin for 2024 was 5.45%, a decrease of 0.85 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 gross margin improved to 7.22%, an increase of 2.09 percentage points year-on-year and 1.18 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.10 yuan per share, totaling approximately 2.15 billion yuan, with an annual total of 4.516 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 61.34% - A new minimum dividend clause has been introduced, ensuring a minimum payout of 0.20 yuan per share while maintaining upward flexibility [2]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, with a 9.6% year-on-year increase in "1+1+N" product sales to 30.59 million tons in 2024 - Key projects are progressing, including various high-end steel production initiatives - The company is expanding its international presence, with a 3.9% year-on-year increase in export sales to 6.067 million tons in 2024 and a historic breakthrough with the establishment of its first overseas full-process steel plant in Saudi Arabia [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 9.83 billion yuan, 11.12 billion yuan, and 12.43 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 13, and 12 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 7.98 RMB [5][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 322.12 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.60%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.36 billion RMB, down 38.36% year-on-year, primarily due to weak industry conditions [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 72.88 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.82% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.05%, with a net profit of 2.43 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.37% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.49% [1][3]. - The steel industry is expected to undergo supply-side optimization, which may lead to a recovery in industry profits, benefiting the company as a leading player in the sector [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's steel product output and sales for 2024 were 51.41 million tons and 51.59 million tons, respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.0% and 0.6% [2]. - The average selling price of steel products was 4,056 RMB per ton (excluding tax), down 6.9% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin, expense ratio, and net profit margin for 2024 were 5.45%, 3.34%, and 2.66%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.75, +0.3, and -1.33 percentage points [2]. Industry Outlook - The steel industry faced significant oversupply in 2024, with the average sales profit margin for key enterprises at 0.71%, down 0.63 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Government measures to control steel production and prevent excessive competition indicate a potential restart of supply-side optimization [4]. - The global iron ore production capacity is expected to continue expanding in 2025, which may lead to a further decline in iron ore prices and a recovery in steel industry profits [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.43, 0.56, and 0.65 RMB, with adjustments reflecting a 13% decrease and a 5% increase for 2025-2026 compared to previous estimates [5]. - The book value per share (BVPS) for 2025-2026 is estimated at 9.40 and 9.53 RMB, respectively [5]. - The target price of 7.98 RMB is based on an average price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.84X since 2017 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual results and Q1 2025 results, with performance in line with market expectations, showing a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 but a recovery in Q1 2025 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 322.116 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.362 billion yuan, down 38.36% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 58.82% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.63% [1]. - In Q1 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.434 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.37% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.49% [1]. Production and Sales - The company maintained stable production and sales, with steel sales of 51.59 million tons in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year [1]. - The average selling price of steel was approximately 4,872 yuan per ton, down 7.02% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was about 4,709 yuan, down 6.46% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit per ton of steel was approximately 163 yuan, a decrease of 20.71% year-on-year, indicating some resilience in profitability despite industry pressures [1]. Expenses and R&D - Total operating expenses for the period were 10.766 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.92% [2]. - Management expenses were 4.02 billion yuan, down 5.79% year-on-year, while sales expenses were 1.691 billion yuan, down 5.13% year-on-year [2]. - Financial expenses increased by 28.46% year-on-year to 1.276 billion yuan, primarily due to foreign exchange losses [2]. - R&D expenses were maintained at a high level of 3.779 billion yuan, up 10.55% year-on-year [2]. Product Performance - The company focused on enhancing product differentiation, maintaining a strong market share in cold-rolled automotive sheets and silicon steel products [2]. - The total sales volume of "1+1+N" products reached 30.59 million tons, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year, with export sales of 6.067 million tons, up 3.9% year-on-year [2]. Dividend Policy - The company is committed to a high dividend payout, with an expected dividend rate of approximately 61.34% for 2024 [2]. - The planned cash dividend distribution for 2024 is 0.21 yuan per share, which exceeds the company's commitment of 50% [2]. Investment Outlook - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 at 9.965 billion yuan and 10.988 billion yuan, respectively, and has added a forecast of 11.929 billion yuan for 2027 [3]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 15x, 13x, and 12x, respectively, with a "buy" rating maintained [3].

Group 1: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The report indicates a shift in foreign capital from net outflows to net inflows, with passive allocation foreign capital being the main contributor to this trend [1][2][3] - The construction industry is experiencing weak supply and demand, with a notable decline in real estate transaction volumes, particularly in new homes [2][3] - The FPSO market is expected to see a rise in both volume and price due to improved economic viability in deep-sea oil and gas development, with projected spending reaching $159.4 billion in 2025, a 28% year-on-year increase [7] Group 2: Company Performance and Financial Results - Huazhong Technology reported a total bond scale of 27.3 billion yuan and $700 million, with a focus on off-market repayment due to risk exposure [3] - The report highlights that Weilan Meishi has established a strong brand presence in the spicy snack sector, with a target price of HKD 19.96 based on a 32x PE ratio for 2025 [9] - Xinbao Co. achieved a revenue of 16.82 billion yuan in 2024, a 14.84% increase year-on-year, with a strong performance in Q1 2025 driven by export demand [10] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The energy sector is witnessing increased investment demand for grid upgrades following a large-scale power outage in Spain, Portugal, and southern France, which may benefit companies like Siyi Electric and China West Electric [4] - The report notes that the steel industry is under pressure, with Baosteel's revenue declining by 6.6% in 2024, but the company is expected to benefit from supply-side optimization [22] - The report emphasizes that the semiconductor industry is facing challenges, with Zhuoshengwei's revenue dropping by 36.47% in Q1 2025, but there is potential for recovery with new product launches [20]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 4 月 28 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 限产扰动不断，钢矿波动加剧 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价冲高回落，录得 0.61%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供需格局改善有限，周产量小幅回落，供应弱稳运行，而周度表 需环比下降，需求有所走弱，旺季需求表现不佳，基本面改善未能延 续，预计钢价继续承压偏弱震荡运行，关注钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价冲高回落，录得 0.84%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，限产政策扰动不断，钢价冲高回落，相应的热卷供需两端变化不 大，产量延续回升，而需求平稳运行，供需格局并未好转，而海外风险 未退，预计热卷价格仍将承压运行，关注需求变化情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.49%日跌幅，量增仓稳。现阶 段，刚需高位叠加节前补库，矿石需求表现良好，给予矿价支撑，但并 未带来库存去化，多因供应维持高位，而需求存存触顶担忧，基本面预 期走弱，预计矿价维持低位震荡运行态势，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F306 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【电新】25年新增核准10台核电机组，可控核聚变领域近期频现突破——碳中和领域动态跟踪（一百五十七） 我国核电项目审批已经进入规模化核准阶段。"十五五"期间核电设备年市场需求有望突破870亿 元，其中核岛设备单年投资规模有望突破400亿元。我国可控核聚变领域近期频现突破，中国聚变 能应用"三步走"战略稳健推进。 （殷中枢/郝骞/宋黎超） 2025-04-28 （ 王招华/戴默） 2025-04-28 您可点击今日推送内容的第2条查看 【晶瑞电材（300655.SZ）】大额商誉减值影响24年业绩，拟发行股份收购湖北晶瑞股权—— 2024年报及2025 一季报点评 2024年，公司实现营收14.35亿元，同比增长10.44% ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 2024年实现营收3221.16亿元，同比-6.50%，归母净利润73.62亿元，同比-38.36%；2024Q4实现营收792.60亿 元，环比-0.43%，同比-11.43%，归母净利润14.80亿元，环比+10.63%，同比-58.82%；2025Q1实现营收728.80 亿元，环比-8.05%，同比-9.82%；归母净利润24.34亿元，环比+64.49%，同比+26.37%。 2024年公司钢材产量同比-1.02%，吨钢毛利-19.68% 四大基地持续建设品种钢产能，公司产品结构有望持续升级 2025 年，公司预算安排固定资产投资资金239.1亿元，主要用于宝山基地无取向硅钢产品结构优化（三步）、 超高等级取 ...

Group 1 - The steel sector showed resilience on April 28, 2025, with companies like Sansteel Minguang, Shougang Corporation, Baosteel, New Steel, and Taiyuan Iron & Steel rising over 5% [1] - Steel LOF products (A: 502023, C: 012810, I: 024184) increased by over 2%, reflecting the overall performance of the black metal industry [1] - As of April 25, steel prices have risen, with 20mm HRB400 rebar priced at 3200 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton from the previous week [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Securities reported that Trump acknowledged the high 145% tariffs on China, indicating that tariffs will significantly decrease post-agreement but will not reach zero [2] - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need for preparedness against external shocks and may introduce policies to counteract the impact of external tariffs [2] - Long-term expectations suggest that crude steel production will be regulated, and the supply of iron ore and coking coal is expected to become more relaxed, potentially restoring profitability for steel companies [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baosteel Co., Ltd. (宝钢股份) [4][6] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit margin of 3.5% in Q1, marking a new high in nearly five quarters, enhancing the long-term investment value through increased dividend certainty [1] - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of CNY 322.12 billion, a decrease of 6.50% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 7.36 billion, down 38.36% year-on-year [1][4] - The company plans to invest CNY 23.91 billion in fixed assets in 2025, focusing on optimizing product structure and expanding production capacity [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the steel production volume was 51.41 million tons, a decrease of 1.02% year-on-year, with a gross profit per ton of CNY 167, down 19.68% year-on-year [2] - The company’s cash dividend plan for 2024-2026 is set at no less than CNY 0.20 per share, with a cash dividend payout ratio of 61.34% in 2024 [3] - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 10.64 billion, CNY 12.05 billion, and CNY 13.81 billion respectively [4] Investment Strategy - The company aims for a product sales target of 32.59 million tons in 2025, with an export sales ratio exceeding 10% [2] - The company plans to acquire a 49% stake in Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. for a total investment of CNY 90 billion [3] - The report highlights the company's focus on returning value to shareholders through dividends and strategic investments [3][4]