Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the refrigerant industry, indicating a high level of industry prosperity and suggesting that related companies are likely to see significant profit increases [6][72]. Core Insights - In March 2025, refrigerant prices continued to rise, with R32, R125, and R134a prices reaching 47,000 CNY/ton, 45,000 CNY/ton, and 46,500 CNY/ton respectively, marking increases of 5.62%, 2.27%, and 3.33% compared to the end of February [6][14]. - The production of household air conditioners is expected to maintain a year-on-year growth trend, with production volumes projected at 24 million units in April, 23.9 million in May, and 21.3 million in June, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.10%, 13.00%, and 15.90% respectively [6][38]. - The long-term contract prices for refrigerants R32 and R410a have significantly increased, with R32 rising to 46,600 CNY/ton and R410a to 47,600 CNY/ton, both reflecting increases of 6,000 CNY/ton from the first quarter [6][68]. Refrigerant Tracking - The production of R32, R134a, and R125 in March 2025 saw significant month-on-month increases, with R32 production up 38.09% and R134a up 46.39% [15]. - The total inventory of R32, R134a, and R125 has shown a month-on-month increase, indicating a recovery in supply levels [18]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry, such as Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co., which are expected to benefit from the ongoing high demand and rising prices [6][72].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for bromine prices and suggests attention to companies like Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Yonghe Co. in the refrigerant sector [5][23]. Core Insights - Bromine prices continue to rise significantly due to supply constraints, with a reported average market price of 38,000 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4,615 RMB/ton or 13.82% [3][11]. - The refrigerant sector is entering a peak demand season, with major refrigerant prices and margins showing an upward trend, particularly for R125 and R32 [4][28]. - The demand for ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) is steadily growing in military and technological applications, indicating potential for increased industry prosperity [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Chemical Product Price Tracking - Bromine, PVDF powder, and other products have seen significant price increases, while products like butadiene and PX have experienced notable declines [11][12]. 2. Polyurethane: MDI and TDI Price Declines - MDI prices have dropped significantly due to trade tensions and weak demand, with current prices for polymer MDI at 14,850 RMB/ton, down 1,100 RMB/ton from the previous week [13]. 3. Agricultural Chemicals: Slight Increase in Diammonium Phosphate Prices - Diammonium phosphate prices have seen a minor increase, supported by rising raw material costs, while glyphosate prices remain stable [15][17]. 4. Fluorochemical Industry: Stable Refrigerant Prices - Refrigerant prices have remained stable, with R22 and R134a prices holding steady at 36,000 RMB/ton and 46,500 RMB/ton respectively, while PVDF prices have shown an upward trend [23][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in Q1 2025, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected to be between 0.76 billion RMB and 0.84 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 145% to 171% [4][7]. - The estimated EPS for 2024-2026 is projected to be 0.75 RMB, 1.31 RMB, and 1.57 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 32.75 RMB based on a 25x PE for 2025 [4][7]. - The refrigerant sector is experiencing strong demand, with the company holding a 34% share of the total HFC quota of 791,900 tonnes, benefiting from the ongoing growth in air conditioning production and sales [4][7]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 20,655 million RMB in 2023 to 25,244 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.2% [3][6]. - Net profit (attributable to shareholders) is forecasted to increase significantly from 944 million RMB in 2023 to 3,525 million RMB in 2025, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [3][6]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 13.2% in 2023 to 23.8% in 2025, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency [6]. Sector Performance - The refrigerant segment's revenue rose by 64.63% year-on-year to 2.62 billion RMB, driven by a 9.56% increase in production and a 58.08% rise in prices [4][7]. - Other sectors, including fluorinated chemicals and petrochemical materials, also reported revenue growth, while packaging materials and fluorinated fine chemicals experienced declines [4][7]. - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the ongoing demand for refrigerants, particularly in emerging markets, as well as from its investments in advanced fluoropolymers and next-generation refrigerants [4][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [10] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 760 million to 840 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 145% to 171%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 740 million to 820 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 157% to 185% [2][7] - The company plans to increase its holdings by no less than 50 million yuan and no more than 100 million yuan within three months starting from April 8 [2][7] - The price of refrigerants continues to rise due to reduced production quotas for the second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) and strong downstream demand, leading to an improved supply-demand balance [13] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with expectations of 760 million to 840 million yuan, marking a growth of 145% to 171% year-on-year [2][7] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is projected to be 740 million to 820 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 157% to 185% year-on-year [2][7] Market Dynamics - The average price of refrigerants has increased significantly, with external sales volume reaching 70,000 tons in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. The average price per ton is 37,500 yuan, up 58.1% year-on-year and 27.8% quarter-on-quarter [13] - The domestic and export market prices for various refrigerants have shown substantial increases compared to the previous quarter, with R22, R32, R134a, and R125 experiencing price hikes of 7.2% to 80.1% [13] Business Outlook - The upcoming peak season from April to June is expected to drive both volume and price increases in the refrigerant market, with projected production increases for household air conditioners [13] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the industry's upward trend, with projected earnings of 1.97 billion, 4.75 billion, and 6.12 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026 [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with estimates ranging from 760 million to 840 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 145% to 171% [3] - The average price of refrigerant products increased by 58.08% compared to the same period last year, contributing to the substantial profit growth [3] - The company is a leading player in the refrigerant industry, with a projected basic earnings per share of 0.74 yuan for 2024, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 32 times at the current stock price [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Company Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 7.4 billion to 8.2 billion yuan for the entire year, indicating a year-on-year growth of 157% to 185% [3] - The total revenue for 2023 is reported at 20.655 billion yuan, with projections of 23.909 billion yuan for 2024 and 28.128 billion yuan for 2025 [4] Market Conditions - The refrigerant market is experiencing a favorable supply-demand balance, with prices continuing to rise due to reduced production quotas for second-generation refrigerants and strong downstream demand [3] - The long-term contract prices for refrigerants R32 and R410a have increased by 14.77% and 14.42% respectively in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025 [3] Financial Projections - The company’s operating profit is projected to reach 2.318 billion yuan in 2024 and 4.354 billion yuan in 2025, with net profit estimates of 2.082 billion yuan and 3.915 billion yuan for the same years respectively [4]

基础化工/化学制品 巨化股份（600160.SH） 2025Q1 经营情况超预期，制冷剂主升行情徐徐展开 2025 年 04 月 09 日 《2024 业绩预计符合预期，蓄势双击， 期 待 主 升 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.1.23 《制冷剂景气延续上行趋势，公司利 润释放或将不断向好—公司信息更新 报告》-2024.10.25 《中报业绩高增，坚定看好制冷剂景 气延续，珍惜布局机会—公司信息更 新报告》-2024.8.23 ——公司信息更新报告 | 金益腾（分析师） | 毕挥（分析师） | 李思佳（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | bihui@kysec.cn | lisijia@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790523080001 | 证书编号：S0790123070026 | |  2025Q1 业绩预计同比增长 | | 145%-171%，向上行情延续，维持"买入"评级 | 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/8 | | --- | -- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with estimates ranging from 760 million to 840 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 145% to 171% [7]. - The controlling shareholder's recent stock purchase reflects confidence in the company's future performance [7]. - The average price of refrigerants has significantly increased, suggesting a positive trend for the second quarter [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 20,655 million yuan in 2023 to 25,432 million yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10.4% [6][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 944 million yuan in 2023 to 4,163 million yuan in 2025, indicating a substantial growth trajectory [6][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 0.35 yuan in 2023 to 1.54 yuan in 2025 [6][9]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to improve from 5.9% in 2023 to 19.4% in 2025 [6][9]. Segment Analysis - The refrigerant segment is expected to see a price increase due to reduced inventory levels and rising demand, with sales volume in Q1 2025 reaching 69,800 tons [7]. - The fluorinated polymer segment showed a sales volume of 11,000 tons in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 10% [7]. - The fluorochemical raw materials segment reported a sales volume of 86,900 tons, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][4] Core Views - The refrigerant prices have been continuously increasing, leading to significant growth in the company's performance in the first quarter of 2025, with expected net profit growth of 145%-171% year-on-year [2][5] - The company is positioned as a leader in the fluorochemical industry, benefiting from a favorable long-term market cycle for refrigerants due to supply constraints and increasing demand [3][4] - The controlling shareholder's plan to increase their stake in the company reflects confidence in its long-term development [3][16] Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company expects a net profit of 7.6-8.4 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 145%-171%, driven by rising refrigerant prices [2][5] - The sales volume of refrigerants reached 69,800 tons in Q1 2025, a 4% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price of 37,500 yuan per ton, up 58% year-on-year and 28% quarter-on-quarter [5][7] Industry Outlook - The refrigerant market is in a long-term boom cycle, with the company holding the largest domestic quota for refrigerants, which positions it to benefit from ongoing price increases [4][33] - The fluoropolymer market is experiencing a "strong supply, weak demand" situation, with limited new capacity expected in 2025, leading to price stabilization [10][11] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to be 26.578 billion yuan in 2024, 34.628 billion yuan in 2025, and 41.375 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 1.999 billion yuan, 4.114 billion yuan, and 4.823 billion yuan [4][40] - The diluted EPS is expected to be 0.74 yuan in 2024, 1.52 yuan in 2025, and 1.79 yuan in 2026, with a corresponding PE ratio of 30.32, 14.76, and 12.54 respectively [4][40]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 股票简称：巨化股份 股票代码：600160 公告编号：临2025－11 浙江巨化股份有限公司 2025年1-3月主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 浙江巨化股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第3号一一行 业信息披露（第十三号化工）》有关规定，将公司2025年1-3月主要经营数据披露如下： 一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 ■ 【注】： 1、同比：指报告期与上年同期相比； 2、外销量低于产量，主要为部分产品作为内部下游产品原料所致； 3、基础化工产品中不含乙炔气、氢气、香精、冷冻油及其他非主要产品（下同）； 4、致冷剂（含全部品种）产量含混配致冷剂产量,产量大于销量主要为部分致冷剂用于公司混配致冷剂 原料所致。 二、主要产品和原材料的价格变动情况 （一）主要产品价格波动情况 单位：元/吨（不含税） ■ （二）主要原料价格波动情况 单位：元/吨（不含税） ■ 三、相关说明 1、报告期，公司克服生产经营季 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月08日 巨化股份（600160.SH） 制冷剂价格持续提升，一季度业绩大幅增长 |  公司研究·公司快评 | |  | 基础化工·化学制品 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 杨林 | 010-88005379 | yanglin6@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520120002 | | 证券分析师： | 张歆钰 | 021-60375408 | zhangxinyu4@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524080004 | 事项： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 优于大市 公司公告：2025 年 4 月 8 日，公司发布《2025 年一季度业绩预增公告》、《2025 年 1-3 月主要经营数据 公告》及《控股股东首次增持股份情况及增持计划的公告》。根据公司公告，经财务部门初步测算，预计 2025 年一季度，公司实现归母净利润 7.6-8.4 亿元，同比增长 145%-171%。实现扣非后归母净利润 7.4-8.2 亿元， ...