Core Viewpoint - The report from Morgan Stanley indicates that the Chinese government has implemented measures to restrict excess capacity in the copper smelting industry, leading to the shutdown of approximately 2 million tons of copper smelting capacity, which is expected to positively impact copper prices and major copper producers [1] Industry Summary - The Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Vice President, Chen Xuesen, confirmed the shutdown of 2 million tons of copper smelting capacity due to government directives [1] - All non-compliant smelting capacities under construction have also been suspended, indicating a strict enforcement of the policy [1] Company Summary - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the stock prices of Jiangxi Copper Company (00358) and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) will rise within the next 15 days, with a probability of 70% to 80% [1] - The target prices set for Jiangxi Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum are HKD 37.3 and HKD 18.6 respectively, both receiving an "overweight" rating [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Gold prices are expected to continue oscillating, with increased volatility. It is recommended to pay attention to the fluctuations [13]. - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [16]. - Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index): The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [20]. - US Stock Index Futures: Adopt a generally bullish approach, but note that the technology sector has not fully reversed its decline. Observe whether the 50 - day moving average can form strong support [25]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market may shift from oscillation to a bearish trend. It is recommended to focus on short - term rebound short - selling strategies [30]. - Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil): The market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Wait for production data to show a decline before expecting a rebound; otherwise, it will likely remain weak [31]. - Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal): The futures price is expected to remain oscillating. Continue to monitor China's actual purchase of US soybeans and the weather in South American production areas [32]. - Agricultural Products (Corn Starch): Starch is expected to remain relatively strong in the short term, following the trend of corn. For price spreads, it is recommended to operate within a range [34]. - Agricultural Products (Corn): The short - term price is expected to remain high and oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for the near - term contracts and not to short [38]. - Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil): Adopt an oscillating perspective and be cautious about the upward space [43]. - Agricultural Products (Pigs): Investors with existing short positions can continue to hold them and adjust stop - loss and take - profit points. For those not yet in the market, wait for a rebound to enter short positions. Long - term investors can focus on far - month contracts after significant corrections [46]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead): For single - side trading, look for opportunities to stop losses at low prices; for arbitrage and cross - market trading, it is recommended to wait and see [48]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc): For single - side trading, wait and see; for calendar spread arbitrage, hold long positions; for cross - market arbitrage, continue to wait and see [50]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon): The futures main contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [53]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon): The short - term price is expected to oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [55]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper): For single - side trading, it is recommended to buy on dips; for arbitrage, continue to pay attention [59]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel): Existing short - position holders can gradually stop losses and take profits, or lightly consider going long on dips. Mid - term evaluation of resource contraction in Indonesia is required [61]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate): Do not chase long positions. If production resumes and demand declines in the off - season, consider lightly shorting on the right side. For the long - term, adopt a strategy of buying on dips [63]. - Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil): Oil prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias in the short term [66]. - Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions): It is recommended to wait and see [68]. - Energy Chemicals (LLDPE): The futures price of PE is expected to oscillate and decline under the influence of supply increase and demand decrease [70]. 2. Core Views - The US economic data in September, including retail sales and employment, showed weakness, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December. The market risk appetite has recovered, and the US dollar index is expected to decline [19]. - The A - share market opened higher and rebounded, but due to uncertainties in Sino - Japanese relations, trading volume remained low, and it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [2][15]. - The bond market sentiment has weakened. With the possible introduction of pro - consumption policies and the impact of the fund fee rate new regulations, it is recommended to look for short - term short - selling opportunities on rebounds [29]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply pressure of oils and fats is large, and the market is expected to be weak; the supply - demand situation of soybean meal is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate; the price of corn and corn starch is expected to be relatively strong [31][32][38]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, the demand for lithium carbonate needs verification, and different trading strategies are recommended for the short - term and long - term; the price of copper is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to buy on dips [5][59]. - In the energy chemicals market, the decline in oil prices is due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the short - term trend is bearish; the short - term trend of LLDPE is expected to decline under the influence of supply and demand [66][70]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Ukraine agreed to the terms of the peace agreement, and Fed Governor Milan called for significant rate cuts. The US budget deficit in October reached $284 billion [11][12][13]. - Comment: Gold prices oscillated and closed higher. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and the dovish speech of the Fed governor affected the market. In the short term, gold prices are expected to continue oscillating [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: China's foreign investment in the first 10 months increased by 6.2%, and the Sino - US leaders' call was initiated by the US [14][15]. - Comment: The A - share market opened higher and rebounded, but trading volume remained low due to uncertainties in Sino - Japanese relations. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: Kevin Hassett is considered the leading candidate for the next Fed chair. The US labor market weakened, and retail sales in September increased slightly [17][18][19]. - Comment: The latest US retail data was lower than expected, and the labor market was weak. A rate cut in December is almost certain, and the US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: Kevin Hassett is the leading candidate for the Fed chair. US retail sales in September increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected, and PPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [21][22][23]. - Comment: PPI was basically in line with expectations, and core PPI growth was slightly lower than expected. Consumption momentum continued to slow down, and the expectation of a rate cut increased. Overall, a bullish approach is recommended, but pay attention to the technology sector [25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The State Council will hold a policy briefing, the central bank conducted 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations and 302.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [26][27][28]. - Comment: The bond market sentiment has weakened. With the possible introduction of pro - consumption policies and the impact of the fund fee rate new regulations, it is recommended to look for short - term short - selling opportunities on rebounds [29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 25 decreased by 16.43% month - on - month [31]. - Comment: The oil market sentiment was weak, and the supply pressure was large. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Wait for production data to show a decline before expecting a rebound [31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: The net export sales of US soybeans in the week ending October 9 were 785,000 tons [32]. - Comment: The supply - demand situation of soybean meal changed little. The market will focus on the weather in South American production areas, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - News: The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on November 25 were 68 yuan/ton, 37 yuan/ton, 110 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [33]. - Comment: The supply - demand pattern of starch improved, and enterprises remained profitable. Starch futures followed corn higher, and price spreads are expected to operate within a range [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - News: The domestic corn price showed mixed trends, with some regions rising and some falling [35][37]. - Comment: The spot price of corn remained strong, and the futures price continued to rise. The short - term price is expected to remain high and oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see for the near - term contracts [38]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: The transaction volume of first - and second - hand houses in 30 key cities showed signs of stabilizing, and the inventory of the passenger vehicle industry at the end of October was 3.41 million [39][40]. - Comment: Steel prices oscillated and strengthened. The increase in steel prices was related to policy expectations and cost support, but the demand did not strongly support the price increase [41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - News: Huatong Co., Ltd. plans to control costs in the next three years [44]. - Comment: The current spot price of pigs is oscillating and falling, which weakens market confidence in peak - season demand. It is recommended to adopt different trading strategies according to the situation [45]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $28.49/ton [47]. - Comment: The LME lead price was in a downward trend, and the domestic lead price also declined. It is recommended to look for opportunities to stop losses on short positions [47]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $140.2/ton, and Kazakhstan's refined zinc production in October increased [49]. - Comment: The LME zinc price oscillated, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased. Different trading strategies are recommended for single - side trading and arbitrage [50]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: The cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity from January to October increased by 43.76% year - on - year, and the single - month installed capacity in October was 12.6 GW [51]. - Comment: The spot price of polysilicon is affected by policy and fundamentals. The price of leading manufacturers is expected to remain stable, and it is recommended to focus on range - trading opportunities [52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: In October, the export volume of industrial silicon decreased by 36% month - on - month [54]. - Comment: The export of industrial silicon was lower than expected, and the balance sheet deteriorated. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: India's Adani copper smelter is facing a shortage of ore, and the 2026 long - term processing fee for Chinese copper smelters may be at a historical low [56][58]. - Comment: The copper price is supported by market risk appetite but is also affected by economic data and geopolitical situations. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to buy on dips [59]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased, and the LME nickel inventory remained unchanged. The production of Indonesia's QMB MHP project is expected to decline [60]. - Comment: The market risk appetite was supported, and the decline in MHP production may improve the balance sheet. It is recommended to adjust short - positions and consider going long on dips [60]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Ganfeng Lithium's 800,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate project is expected to be put into production in 2026 [62]. - Comment: The demand for lithium carbonate needs verification. Do not chase long positions in the short term, and consider different strategies according to the situation [63]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: The production of Kazakhstan's largest oil field increased, and the US API crude oil inventory decreased [64][65]. - Comment: Oil prices declined due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan. The short - term trend is bearish, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting [65]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The closing price of CEA on November 25 was 60.16 yuan/ton [67]. - Comment: The impact of the carry - over policy on CEA price may be more emotional than substantial. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - News: China's apparent consumption of PE in October increased by 3.9% month - on - month [69]. - Comment: Under the influence of supply increase and demand decrease, the futures price of LLDPE is expected to oscillate and decline [70].

Core Points - The Shanghai Investment Products Index (000102) closed at 7120.52 points, up 0.92%, with a trading volume of 58.14 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.12% [1] - Among the index constituents, 33 stocks rose, led by Zhongjin Gold with a 4.15% increase, while 14 stocks fell, with Samsung Medical leading the decline at 1.88% [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the Shanghai Investment Products Index include: - Yinghui Mining (6.27% weight, 28.51 yuan, 1.82% increase, market cap 757.73 billion yuan) in the non-ferrous metals sector - China Shipbuilding (5.26% weight, 34.93 yuan, 1.58% decrease, market cap 262.87 billion yuan) in the defense industry - Northern Rare Earth (5.01% weight, 45.05 yuan, 0.47% increase, market cap 162.86 billion yuan) in the non-ferrous metals sector - Jiangqi Green Energy (4.99% weight, 18.98 yuan, 1.17% increase, market cap 143.83 billion yuan) in the power equipment sector - Longzhi Aluminum Industry (4.67% weight, 15.97 yuan, 4.04% increase, market cap 341.67 billion yuan) in the non-ferrous metals sector - Sany Heavy Industry (4.48% weight, 20.44 yuan, 0.34% decrease, market cap 186.13 billion yuan) in the machinery sector - China Shenhua (3.91% weight, 41.20 yuan, no change, market cap 818.58 billion yuan) in the coal sector - TBEA (3.86% weight, 22.07 yuan, 2.56% increase, market cap 111.52 billion yuan) in the power equipment sector - Guodian NARI (3.79% weight, 22.19 yuan, 0.18% increase, market cap 178.23 billion yuan) in the power equipment sector - Huayou Cobalt (3.73% weight, 60.51 yuan, 3.97% increase, market cap 114.73 billion yuan) in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of main funds into the index constituents totaled 1.055 billion yuan, while speculative funds saw a net outflow of 631 million yuan, and retail investors experienced a net outflow of 424 million yuan [1] - Specific stocks with significant capital flow include: - Huayou Cobalt with a net inflow of 300 million yuan, but speculative and retail outflows of 46.34 million yuan and 25.4 million yuan respectively - China Aluminum with a net inflow of 208 million yuan, but speculative and retail outflows of 70.64 million yuan and 13.7 million yuan respectively - TBEA with a net inflow of 179 million yuan, but speculative and retail outflows of 62.93 million yuan and 11.6 million yuan respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper's stock price has shown significant growth this year, with an increase of 83.61% year-to-date, despite a recent decline in the last five and twenty trading days [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Jiangxi Copper reported a revenue of 396.05 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.08% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20.85% to 6.02 billion yuan [2] - The company has distributed a total of 23.56 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 7.6 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [2] Stock Market Activity - As of November 25, Jiangxi Copper's stock price was 36.62 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 126.81 billion yuan and a trading volume of 298 million yuan [1] - The stock has experienced a turnover rate of 0.39% and has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a list of stocks with significant trading activity) once this year, most recently on October 9 [1] Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, Jiangxi Copper had 125,600 shareholders, an increase of 6.64% from the previous period [2] - The top shareholders include China Securities Finance Corporation, holding 104 million shares, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which reduced its holdings by 24.08 million shares [3]

智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，全球第二大铜矿Grasberg宣布重启和复产计划，预计未来产 量持续增长。该行认为，在中期矿端干扰被逐渐排除的情况下，如Grasberg、Cobre Panamá等铜矿的重 新恢复正常生产或将显著贡献矿端增量，铜矿供给端的紧张局势有望得到缓解。另指铜冶炼费或存边际 向上改善空间，关注中期铜冶炼企业的投资机会。 东方证券主要观点如下： 全球第二大铜矿Grasberg宣布重启和复产计划，预计未来产量持续增长 26-27年铜冶炼产量增速或低于铜矿供给端，铜冶炼费有望边际向好 在中期矿端干扰被逐渐排除、大型铜矿有望复产的预期下，26-27年铜矿供给端放量增速或较25年显著 提升，据测算26-27年铜矿产量增速同比可达3.3%、5.3%。当前海外多家冶炼厂因铜精矿紧缺、成本高 企而收缩产能，叠加国内中游铜冶炼端"反内卷"政策措施落地的预期，中期铜冶炼产量增速或低于铜矿 供给端。该行认为，铜冶炼费或存边际向上改善空间，关注中期铜冶炼企业的投资机会。 投资建议与投资标的 铜冶炼端：建议关注全国最大铜冶炼企业之一、且具有米拉多铜矿资源放量提升铜精矿自给率预期的铜 陵有色(000630. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [3] Core Views - The report highlights ongoing speculation regarding interest rate cuts, with a focus on gold and copper markets. The expectation for a December rate cut remains uncertain, influenced by mixed employment data and the lack of CPI data due to government shutdowns. Despite fluctuations in market expectations, historical trends suggest that even if a rate cut does not occur, it will not alter the long-term direction for gold [10][11] - The impact of Russia's gold sales is deemed limited, as the country has significantly reduced its gold purchases in 2023 and is primarily selling gold domestically due to sanctions on international transactions. This is expected to have minimal effect on the global market [10] - Copper prices show resilience, remaining stable within the range of $10,600 to $11,000 per ton, supported by strong supply and demand fundamentals. Recent production guidance from Freeport has been adjusted downward, indicating a tighter supply outlook for 2026 [11] Summary by Sections Gold Market - The ongoing debate over interest rate cuts is affecting gold prices, with December cut probabilities fluctuating between 30% and 70%. The report suggests that the direction for gold remains positive regardless of short-term rate cut outcomes [10] - Russia's gold reserves are over 2,300 tons, but their recent sales are not expected to significantly impact international gold prices due to domestic selling constraints [10] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown strong resilience, not following broader market declines. The report notes a recent increase in the operating rate of copper rod production, indicating robust demand [11] - Freeport's production guidance for copper has been revised downwards, suggesting a tighter supply situation moving forward [11] - The report anticipates further upward adjustments in earnings expectations for copper mining stocks due to ongoing fiscal expansion and liquidity conditions [11] Market Performance - The report indicates that the non-ferrous metals index has underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 6.75% recently. Specific sectors such as lithium and gold have shown varying performance, with lithium stocks performing relatively better [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Jiangxi Copper is "Buy" with a target price of HK$27.90, indicating an expected share price decline of 12.2% from the current price of HK$31.76 [6]. Core Insights - The long-term treatment charge and refining charge (LT TC/RC) for copper concentrate is expected to be lower year-on-year in 2026, reflecting a tight supply situation as the LT TC/RC covers approximately 80% of total purchased overseas copper concentrate in 2025, down from 90% in previous years [1][2]. - The company plans to avoid large-scale maintenance work for copper smelting capacity until the LT TC/RC price for the next year is determined, with an anticipated increase in the percentage of spot TC/RC in the fourth quarter of 2025 if the LT TC/RC price remains low [3]. - Management believes that the impact of anti-involution on the copper smelting industry will primarily affect new capacity rather than existing capacity, as copper demand is expected to continue increasing, thus limiting the impact on copper prices [4]. - The copper foil business is projected to incur a net loss in 2025, but strong orders for lithium battery copper foil since September 2025 are expected to improve profitability in 2026, despite processing fees not significantly increasing [5]. Summary by Sections Valuation - Jiangxi Copper's H-shares are valued at HK$27.90 based on a combination of discounted cash flow (DCF) and price-to-book (P/B) fair values, with a DCF valuation yielding an NPV-per-share of HK$32.90 and a P/B valuation yielding HK$22.90 [8].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper is set to distribute a mid-term dividend of 826 million yuan, marking its first mid-term dividend payout since 2012 [2][3][7]. Financial Performance - Jiangxi Copper has cumulatively distributed cash dividends of 23.564 billion yuan since its listing, which is more than double its total equity financing amount [4][9]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of over 6 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 20% [12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders has been consistently increasing since 2021, with cumulative net profit since listing amounting to approximately 81.653 billion yuan [5][11]. Dividend Distribution - The upcoming dividend will be distributed only to A-share shareholders, with a cash dividend of 0.40 yuan per share based on a total of 2.065 billion shares [8][10]. - This mid-term dividend is the second in the company's history since its A-share listing, with the last one occurring in 2011 [8][11]. Operational Strengths - Jiangxi Copper is the largest copper production base in China, processing over 2 million tons of copper products annually and also being a major producer of by-product gold and silver [4][14]. - The company has a complete integrated industrial chain and significant technological advantages, contributing to its cost advantages [14][16]. - The company has maintained a strong financial operation with robust debt repayment capabilities [6]. Resource and Production Capacity - As of the end of 2024, Jiangxi Copper's owned resources include approximately 8.899 million tons of copper and 239.08 tons of gold [14]. - The company has a production capacity of 98.33 tons of gold and 1,000 tons of silver annually, along with 250,000 tons of electrolytic copper and 1.3 million tons of sulfuric acid [14][15]. Research and Development - Jiangxi Copper has consistently increased its R&D investment, with expenditures rising from 4.793 billion yuan in 2021 to 6.012 billion yuan in 2024 [16].

Group 1 - Non-ferrous stocks experienced a widespread decline, with Luoyang Molybdenum falling by 3.83% to HKD 15.32, Jiangxi Copper down 3.22% to HKD 29.42, Lingbao Gold decreasing by 2.8% to HKD 15.29, and China Aluminum dropping by 2.51% to HKD 10.86 [1] - The decline in non-ferrous stocks is attributed to the weakened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, as the US dollar index surpassed the 100-point mark [1] - The US Labor Department reported a non-farm payroll increase of 119,000 in September, exceeding expectations by more than double, although the combined non-farm employment figures for July and August were revised down by 33,000 [1] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in the US unexpectedly rose to 4.4% in September, marking the highest level since October 2021 [1] - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, while continuing claims reached a four-year high [1] - Following the data release, swap contracts indicated a diminishing likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1]

Group 1 - The overall performance of non-ferrous metal stocks is declining, with notable drops in companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (-3.83%), Jiangxi Copper (-3.22%), Lingbao Gold (-2.8%), and China Aluminum (-2.51%) [1] - The decline in stock prices is influenced by the weakening expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, as indicated by the rise of the US dollar index above the 100 mark [1] - The US labor statistics report shows that non-farm employment increased by 119,000 in September, exceeding expectations by more than double, although the employment figures for July and August were revised down by 33,000 [1] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in the US unexpectedly rose to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021, indicating potential economic concerns [1] - Initial jobless claims decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, while continuing claims reached a four-year high, suggesting mixed signals in the labor market [1] - Following the release of this data, swap contracts indicate a diminishing likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1]