Group 1: Market Performance - The industrial metal sector increased by 4.88% compared to the previous trading day, with Guocheng Mining leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3963.68, up 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13603.89, up 0.54% [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Guocheng Mining (000688) closed at 29.13, up 10.01%, with a trading volume of 420,400 shares and a transaction value of 1.198 billion yuan [1] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) closed at 48.31, up 10.00%, with a trading volume of 1,004,200 shares and a transaction value of 4.738 billion yuan [1] - Jincheng Mining (603979) closed at 81.50, up 8.55%, with a trading volume of 114,300 shares and a transaction value of 915 million yuan [1] - China Aluminum (601600) closed at 11.84, up 8.03%, with a trading volume of 4,736,300 shares and a transaction value of 5.436 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Capital Flow Analysis - The industrial metal sector saw a net inflow of 3.358 billion yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 2.312 billion yuan [2] - Major stocks like Jiangxi Copper and Jincheng Mining had significant net inflows from main funds, indicating strong institutional interest [3] - Retail investors showed a tendency to withdraw from the sector, as evidenced by the net outflows recorded [2][3]

Market Overview - The market experienced a high and then a pullback, with the three major indices showing slight increases, and the Shanghai Composite Index recording an 8-day winning streak [1] - The commercial aerospace sector continued to perform strongly, with companies like Shenjian Co. and China Satellite reaching their daily price limits [1] - The Hainan Free Trade Zone showed active trading, with stocks like Hainan Mining and Hainan Airlines hitting their daily limits [1] - The lithium battery sector saw a rebound, with stocks such as Fengyuan Co. and Yongxing Materials also reaching their daily limits [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector collectively strengthened, with Jiangxi Copper and Guocheng Mining hitting their daily limits [1] - In contrast, computing hardware stocks adjusted, with Changguang Huaxin dropping over 10% [1] - Overall, more than 3,400 stocks declined across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets, with a total trading volume of 2.18 trillion yuan [1] Hot Topics Aerospace - The aerospace sector maintained its strong performance, with stocks like Zai Sheng Technology and Tongyu Communication hitting their daily limits, and China Satellite nearing historical highs [3] - The Shanghai Municipal Government announced measures to accelerate the development of the aerospace industry in the Yangtze River Delta [3] - Key drivers for the aerospace sector include advancements in reusable rockets, large-scale satellite manufacturing, and increased launch frequency, which are expected to significantly reduce launch costs and drive market expansion [4] Lithium Batteries - The lithium battery sector rebounded strongly, with stocks such as Tianji Co. and Shenzhen New Star reaching their daily limits [5] - Starting January 1, 2026, Tianqi Lithium's product pricing will be adjusted to reference the battery-grade lithium salt prices from Mysteel or the main carbon lithium futures contract prices [5] - Hunan Youneng announced planned maintenance for some production lines starting January 1, 2026, expected to last one month [5] - Wanrun New Energy also announced a planned reduction in production for some lithium iron phosphate production lines starting December 28 for one month [5] Hainan Free Trade Zone - The Hainan Free Trade Zone showed renewed performance, with stocks like Antong Holdings and Hainan Development hitting their daily limits [8] - The Hainan Free Trade Port officially launched its first week of full island closure, with policy benefits continuing to be released, leading to a significant increase in foreign trade registration enterprises [8] - During the first week of closure (December 18-24), Hainan added 1,972 foreign trade registration enterprises, a year-on-year increase of 230% [8] - Analysts believe that the closure will not only be a regional policy breakthrough but will also serve as a core driver for future consumption potential, benefiting related industries such as hotels, duty-free, and tourism [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The copper futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks, with the price fluctuating between 94,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton. The reasons are that the significant increase in LME inventory and the rise in scrap copper imports on the supply side suppress prices, high copper prices on the demand side inhibit consumption and year - end demand remains weak, and Jiangxi Copper's acquisition provides long - term support but has limited short - term impact [3][41] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On December 25, the SHFE main contract price closed at 95,570 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 90 yuan from 95,660 yuan/ton on December 24, a decrease of 0.09%. The LME copper price closed at 12,133 US dollars/ton on December 24, up 78 US dollars from the previous day. The basis weakened, and the SMM premium copper discount deepened from - 180 yuan/ton on December 19 to - 280 yuan/ton on December 25 [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: Overnight, LME copper's trading volume on December 24 shrank to 18,000 lots, and the position decreased to 340,000 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract shrank to 145,000 lots, and the position decreased to 244,000 lots [1] Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: On December 25, LME copper inventory increased significantly by 6,861 tons to 59,083 tons, an increase of 13.14%, indicating a loose supply. Jiangxi Copper announced the acquisition of SolGold on December 24, strengthening long - term control of copper mine resources. The CSPT meeting on December 25 decided not to set a reference figure for processing fees in the first quarter of 2026, increasing smelting uncertainty. In November, scrap copper imports increased by 5.8% month - on - month to 208,100 tons, supplementing the supply [2] - **Demand Side**: High copper prices suppress downstream demand. The SMM report shows that the spot premium in North China dropped sharply to a discount of 600 yuan/ton on December 25, and the refined copper rod market had poor trading. Year - end capital settlement led to weak提货 sentiment, and the market was waiting for the recovery of procurement after New Year's Day [2] - **Inventory Side**: The overall global inventory is relatively high. SHFE inventory decreased slightly to 157,025 tons on December 24; COMEX inventory increased to 479,540 short tons, strengthening the expectation of oversupply [2] Price Trend Judgment - The copper futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the next one to two weeks, with the price range expected to be between 94,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton. The reasons are the significant increase in LME inventory and the rise in scrap copper imports on the supply side suppressing prices, high copper prices on the demand side inhibiting consumption and year - end demand remaining weak, and Jiangxi Copper's acquisition providing long - term support but having limited short - term impact [3] Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Spot Price**: On December 25, the SMM:1 copper price was 95,070 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from December 24. The discounts of premium copper, flat - price copper, and wet - process copper all deepened [5] - **Futures Price**: The SHFE price on December 25 was 95,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan from December 24; the LME price on December 24 was 12,133 US dollars/ton, up from the previous day [5] - **Inventory**: LME inventory on December 25 increased by 6,861 tons to 59,083 tons; SHFE inventory on December 24 decreased slightly to 157,025 tons; COMEX inventory on December 24 increased to 479,540 short tons [5] Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, US dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper position situation, LME copper net long position analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [6][8][10]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 26 日星期五 联系方式：15018531496 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | 夜盘收盘价 | 元/吨，较上一交易日夜盘收盘价上涨 | CU2602 | 97680 | 2.8 | 3%。沪铜次主力合约 | 夜盘收于 | 元/吨，涨幅 | 2.82%。 | CU2603 | 97820 | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、12 | 月 | 日，上交所官网公告，江西铜业（600362.SH）正式要约收购索尔黄金（S | 25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | olGold，伦交所代码 | SOLG.L），该要约估值约 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper plans to acquire all issued and to-be-issued shares of SolGold plc at a cash price of 28 pence per share, valuing the total equity at approximately £867 million (around RMB 8.2 billion) [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The offer price of 28 pence represents a premium of approximately 42.9% over SolGold's closing price of 19.6 pence on November 19, 2025, and a premium of 58.5% over the three-month volume-weighted average share price [1] - Jiangxi Copper has received irrevocable commitments from major shareholders including BHP, Newmont, and Maxit Capital LP, representing a 25.7% stake, along with support from SolGold's board for an additional 2.8% [1] - Jiangxi Copper already holds 366 million shares of SolGold, accounting for 12.2% of its issued share capital [1] Group 2: Previous Negotiations - Prior to the formal offer, Jiangxi Copper made two non-binding cash offers on November 23 and November 28, 2025, both of which were rejected by SolGold's board [2] - The offer price was increased from 26 pence to 28 pence on December 12, 2025, which led to the board's indication of support for a formal offer [2] Group 3: SolGold's Assets - SolGold is a UK-registered mineral exploration and development company, with its core asset being the 100% ownership of the Cascabel project in Ecuador, one of the world's most significant undeveloped porphyry copper-gold deposits [2] - The Alpala deposit within the Cascabel project has an estimated resource of 12.2 million tons of copper, 30.5 million ounces of gold, and 102.3 million ounces of silver, with confirmed and inferred reserves of 3.2 million tons of copper, 9.4 million ounces of gold, and 2.8 million ounces of silver [2] Group 4: Jiangxi Copper's Financial Performance - Jiangxi Copper has shown steady financial performance, with revenues of RMB 479.94 billion, RMB 521.89 billion, and RMB 520.93 billion projected for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, and net profits of RMB 5.99 billion, RMB 6.50 billion, and RMB 6.96 billion for the same years [2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of RMB 396.05 billion and a net profit of RMB 6.02 billion, with total assets amounting to RMB 235.50 billion as of September 2025 [3]

MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 华龙证券认为，金属景气度有望维持。铜中期的供应偏紧，市场普遍预期2026年前后，精炼铜将出现供 需关系拐点，随后转入紧缺。需求方面，美国2026年经济增速预期良好，美联储当前"预防性降息"的思 路为软着陆提供多一层保障。在供需关系趋势性转折的节点上，供给提供支撑，需求决定弹性，看好 2026年以铜、铝为代表的工业金属表现。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，中证工业有色金属主题指数前十大权重股分别为洛阳钼业、北方稀 土、中国铝业、云铝股份、兴业银锡、华友钴业、铜陵有色、江西铜业、神火股份、西部矿业，前十大 权重股合计占比54.56%。 工业有色ETF（560860）紧密跟踪中证工业有色金属主题指数，覆盖铜、铝、稀土等战略资源龙头，场 外投资者可通过联接（A类：018489；C类：018490）布局顺周期与政策红利共振机遇。 2025年12月26日盘中，有色金属板块涨幅居前，截至 13:53，中证工业有色金属主题指数(H11059)强势 上涨3.94%，成分股江西铜业10cm涨停，金诚信上涨8.76%，中国铝业上涨7.57%，铜陵有色、云南铜业 等个股跟涨。工业有色E ...

Group 1 - A500ETF Southern (159352) has seen a 0.65% increase, marking a six-day consecutive rise, with a trading volume of 7.878 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 17.12% [1] - The CSI A500 Index, which the A500ETF closely tracks, rose by 0.60%, with several constituent stocks, including Yongxing Materials and Enjie Co., each increasing by 10% [1] - The CSI A500 Index is recognized as a "barometer of China's new productive forces," covering approximately 90 tertiary industries and focusing on industry leaders and ESG criteria [1] Group 2 - Listed companies in China have accelerated investments in innovation, with a total R&D expenditure of 1.16 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking three consecutive years of over 1 trillion yuan in R&D spending [2] - The A-share market is entering a critical window for cross-year layout, with structural opportunities expected to align with policy guidance and industry prosperity [2] - A500ETF Southern (159352) offers a low management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, providing a high-precision, low-cost investment channel [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly copper and precious metals, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand dynamics [1][2] - On December 26, 2025, copper futures prices surged past 98,000 yuan/ton, reaching a historical high, with the Zhongzheng Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index rising by 3.54% [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the importance of optimizing traditional industries like alumina and copper smelting, which are crucial for the national economy and defense [1] Group 2 - Citic Securities noted that the U.S. November CPI unexpectedly cooled, leading to market adjustments for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, which, along with abundant liquidity and supply constraints, pushed non-ferrous metal prices to new highs [2] - The strong performance of non-ferrous metals is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic financial policies and structural changes in supply and demand, including the onset of a global rate-cutting cycle and a weakening dollar [2] - The Tianhong Zhongzheng Industrial Non-Ferrous Metals Theme Index closely tracks the performance of 30 major listed companies involved in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare earth metals, reflecting the overall performance of the sector [2]

Group 1 - The "stock-futures linkage" effect is significant, with major futures contracts for copper, gold, silver, and platinum reaching historical highs, and lithium carbonate futures surpassing 130,000 yuan/ton [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector is strong, with leading companies Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum both hitting historical highs in stock prices, with market values of 886.8 billion yuan and 421.3 billion yuan respectively [1] - The lithium battery supply chain is gaining strength, driving a rebound in the new energy sector, with leading stocks such as Sungrow Power Supply, Molybdenum, and BYD experiencing significant increases [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metal sector is rising, with precious and industrial metals also showing upward trends [2][3] - Specific stocks in the industrial sector, such as Guocheng Mining and Jiangxi Copper, have seen substantial increases, with Guocheng Mining up by 10.01% and Jiangxi Copper up by 9.97% [4] - The copper market is expected to see continued upward pressure due to ongoing adjustments in global copper inventory and supply shortages, with forecasts indicating a potential price increase [6] Group 3 - The new energy sector is rebounding, driven by the rise in lithium battery supply chains, photovoltaics, and energy storage, with stocks like Enjie and BYD showing strong performance [10] - Two main catalysts for the rebound include the significant rise in lithium carbonate futures and the recent announcements of production cuts by major cathode material manufacturers, which are expected to stabilize prices [10] - The lithium battery supply chain is emerging from a clearing and destocking phase, with demand growth remaining unexpectedly high, indicating a recovery in the overall industry [11]

有色矿业ETF招商（159690）紧密跟踪有色矿业指数，集中投资于拥有上游矿产资源的企业，包括北方 稀土、紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、华友钴业、中国铝业、山东黄金等拥有大量资源储量的公司。截至最新收 盘日，有色矿业指数年内涨幅达96.03%，同期有色金属行业指数涨幅87.05%，相比同类指数锐度更 强。 华龙证券认为，黄金与长期美债实际利率的负相关框架解释力逐步弱化，其背后是美元及美国信用的弱 化，黄金作为避险资产的性质得到加强。工业金属方面，市场对2026年中国铜需求较乐观，预期将保持 一定韧性，看好2026年以铜为代表的工业金属表现。 东方证券认为，金铜铝铁权益端涨幅明显滞后商品端，板块对应明年估值也处于较低水平。随着后续商 品价格持续新高，市场对金铜铝铁中期价格上行预期有望不断强化，上周短期波动后，权益板块有望在 需求推动下维持中期上涨，可积极关注相关板块的投资机会。 格隆汇12月26日｜商品价格全面爆发！12月26日，伦敦现银日内突破75美元/盎司，再创历史新高；国 际铜连续主力合约日内涨4%，报89160元。 有色矿业ETF招商（159690）一度涨超4%，盘中刷新上市以来新高，成份股永兴材料、江西铜业涨 ...