格隆汇10月9日｜江西铜业公告，股票价格于2025年9月29日、9月30日、10月9日连续三个交易日内日收 盘价格涨幅偏离值累计达到20%，属于股票交易异常波动情形。公司核查发现的事项：经公司董事会自 查及发函问询控股股东，截至本公告披露日，不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息。经公司自查，公司目 前生产经营活动一切正常。近期，公司主产品中阴极铜、黄金的市场价格累计涨幅较大。公司目前尚未 发现可能或已经对公司股票交易价格产生影响的媒体报道或市场传闻和涉及热点概念的事项。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper metal sector has seen a significant increase of 5.28% as of the market close on October 9, ranking sixth among concept sectors, with 77 stocks rising, including Zhejiang Fu Holdings, Hebang Bio, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals reaching their daily limit [1] Group 1: Sector Performance - The copper metal sector experienced a rise of 5.28%, with notable stocks such as Zhejiang Fu Holdings increasing by 10.12%, Hebang Bio by 10.10%, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals by 10.07% [1][3] - The leading gainers in the sector included Yuguang Gold Lead, Jintian Co., and Xiyang Co., with increases of 9.87%, 8.80%, and 8.60% respectively [1] - Conversely, the sector also saw declines in stocks like Changjiang Investment, Dezhong Automobile, and Jianfa Co., with decreases of 3.20%, 3.18%, and 0.78% respectively [1] Group 2: Capital Flow - The copper metal sector faced a net outflow of 120 million yuan in principal funds, with 49 stocks receiving net inflows, and 13 stocks seeing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan [2] - China Railway led the net inflow with 428 million yuan, followed by Western Mining, China Metallurgical Group, and Xingye Silver Lead with inflows of 245 million yuan, 223 million yuan, and 221 million yuan respectively [2] - The top stocks by net inflow ratio included Jinling Mining at 49.56%, Zhejiang Fu Holdings at 38.25%, and Baiyin Nonferrous Metals at 19.18% [3] Group 3: Stock Performance - Key stocks in the copper sector included China Railway with a rise of 5.44%, Western Mining at 10.00%, and China Metallurgical Group at 7.53% [3][4] - Other notable performers included Hebang Bio and Zhejiang Fu Holdings, both achieving a 10.10% and 10.12% increase respectively [3][4] - The trading volume and turnover rates for these stocks indicated strong investor interest, with significant capital flow observed [3][4]

Core Insights - The industrial metals sector experienced a significant increase of 7.88% on October 9, with Tongling Nonferrous Metals leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3933.97, up 1.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13725.56, up 1.47% [1] Industrial Metals Sector Performance - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (code: 000630) closed at 5.90, with a rise of 10.07% and a trading volume of 4.912 million shares, amounting to a transaction value of 2.868 billion [1] - Other notable performers included: - Jinyi Co., Ltd. (code: 002295) at 16.23, up 10.03% [1] - Northern Copper Industry (code: 000737) at 17.56, up 10.03% [1] - Yunnan Copper (code: 000878) at 19.23, up 10.01% [1] - Jiangxi Copper (code: 600362) at 39.04, up 10.00% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The industrial metals sector saw a net inflow of 644 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 204 million yuan [5] - Notable net inflows from major stocks included: - China Aluminum (code: 601600) with a net inflow of 283 million yuan [5] - Western Mining (code: 601168) with a net inflow of 194 million yuan [5] - Yunnan Copper (code: 000878) with a net inflow of 184 million yuan [5]

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures prices experienced a slight pullback before rising again, currently trading around $4056, with gold-related ETFs showing strong performance, including a nearly 9% increase in the gold stock ETF (159562) [1] - As of the end of September, China's gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces month-on-month, marking the 11th consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] - UBS forecasts a bullish trend in the gold market, predicting gold prices will rise to $4200 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by a weaker dollar, significant central bank purchases, and increased ETF investments [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights concerns regarding the valuation methods and space for domestic gold mining stocks, suggesting that the upward momentum in gold prices combined with increased production from gold mining companies could drive further PE ratio recovery [2] - The report indicates that domestic gold mining stocks are significantly undervalued in terms of cash flow and resources, and the promotion of two valuation methods domestically may facilitate a revaluation [2] - Both qualitative and quantitative analyses support a positive outlook on the allocation value of domestic gold stocks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant gains in precious metals and base metals sectors following the "Double Festival" holiday, with several stocks reaching their daily limit up [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the first trading day after the holiday, stocks in the precious metals and base metals sectors surged, with companies like Sichuan Gold, Jiangxi Copper, and Baiyin Nonferrous hitting the daily limit up [1]. - By midday, stocks such as Tongling Nonferrous, Yunnan Copper, and Western Mining also reached the daily limit up, while others like Xinyi Silver Tin and Luoyang Molybdenum rose over 9% [1]. - In the Hong Kong market, companies like China Gold International and Jiangxi Copper continued their upward trend, with Jiangxi Copper rising over 9% [2]. Group 2: Metal Price Movements - During the "Double Festival" period, prices of gold, silver, copper, and aluminum saw significant increases, with COMEX gold rising by 4.81% and LME copper by 4.21% [5]. - Analysts attribute the rise in base metal prices to ongoing supply disruptions and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which have led to increased investor concerns regarding the dollar's credibility [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts expect continued support for silver, copper, and aluminum prices, with copper facing supply disruptions and low inventory levels providing strong price support [7]. - The dual nature of silver's demand, both as a precious metal and an industrial commodity, is expected to sustain its price momentum, particularly in light of ongoing policy stimuli [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.04% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.63% [1] Sector Performance - The passenger airline and metals & mining sectors experienced notable gains, while the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors faced significant declines [1] Individual Stock Movements - Notable gainers included: - Hang Seng Bank up by 26.3% - Jiangxi Copper (600362) up by 11.19% - ZTE Corporation (000063) up by 10.73% - China Railway (601390) up by 9.04% - Mixue Group up by 8.96% - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) up by 8.04% - Hua Hong Semiconductor up by 6.75% - Lenovo Group up by 6.41% - Zijin Mining up by 5.48% - China General Nuclear Power (601766) up by 5.44% - China CRRC (601766) up by 4.17% [1] - Significant decliners included: - Innovent Biologics down by 9.68% - Shandong Hi-Speed down by 12.55% [1] - Shanghai Electric (601727) saw a substantial increase of 15.72% [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices rebounded after an initial dip, with the Hang Seng Index slightly up by 0.04%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.52% and 0.63% respectively, ending a three-day decline [1] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks showed mixed results, with Kuaishou up by 1.69%, while Meituan, JD.com, and Baidu also saw gains. Alibaba, NetEase, Xiaomi, and Tencent experienced slight declines [1] - Copper prices surged due to supply shortages and a computing power revolution, leading to significant gains in copper mining stocks. China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals soared nearly 20%, Jiangxi Copper rose over 11%, and China Nonferrous Mining increased by 8% [1] - Hong Kong local bank stocks surged, particularly HSBC, which plans to privatize through an agreement, causing Hang Seng Bank's stock to spike by 41%, reaching a historical high [1] - Mining resource stocks and high-speed rail infrastructure stocks saw substantial increases, with China Railway Group rising over 10% [1] - Institutional analysts are focusing on Q4 demand recovery due to low baselines, leading to a collective rebound in airline stocks, with China Eastern Airlines up nearly 10%. Wind power, semiconductor, telecommunications, oil, and property management stocks also saw gains [1] Declines in Specific Sectors - Pharmaceutical stocks fell across the board, with Innovent Biologics, SiHuan Pharmaceutical, and I-Mab leading the decline in innovative drug stocks [1] - The film industry faced a downturn due to poor box office performance during the National Day holiday, resulting in a collective drop in cinema stocks [1] - The automotive sector mostly declined [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.04%, gaining 11 points to close at 26,840 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.63% [1] - Shanghai Electric (601727) surged by 15.72%, hitting the upper limit in A-shares, driven by recent positive developments in the controllable nuclear fusion sector [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) climbed 6.75%, reaching a new high as local supply chain integration accelerates, with domestic foundry demand expected to expand rapidly [1] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) shares rose by 11%, as the company is a leading copper smelter in China, with First Quantum's copper mine expected to resume production [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) increased by 8%, following a significant rise in cobalt prices, which surged over 11% in the previous two days due to strict export controls from the Congo [1] Group 2 - Hang Seng Bank (00011) saw a 26% increase, following HSBC's recommendation for its privatization [2] - Solar energy stocks experienced gains, with upstream prices rising more than downstream prices in September; New Special Energy (01799) rose 4.52%, Flat Glass (601865) increased by 7.67%, and GCL-Poly Energy (03800) gained 3.73% [2] - High-speed rail infrastructure stocks led the gains, with record railway investment progress; China Railway (601390) rose 9%, China Metallurgical Group (601618) increased by 6%, and CRRC Corporation (601766) gained 4.17% [2] - ZTE Corporation (00763) saw both A and H shares rise, with the launch of Co-Sight super intelligent system indicating positive growth potential in the enterprise AI market; H shares increased by 10.73% [2] Group 3 - Mixue Group (02097) rose 8.96% despite market trends, as it made a forward-looking investment in fresh beer brand Fulu, expanding its "tea + coffee + fresh beer" portfolio [3] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index fell by 3.52%, with notable declines in stocks such as Innovent Biologics (09969) down over 9%, I-Mab (01801) down over 6%, and China Biologic Products (01177) down over 6% [3] Group 4 - Smoore International (06969) dropped over 9%, having fallen more than 30% from its year-to-date high, with UBS projecting lower earnings than market consensus [4]

Group 1 - Jiangxi Copper's A-shares have reached a limit-up price of 39.04 yuan [3] - The Grasberg copper mine shutdown is expected to widen the copper supply gap from Q4 2025 to 2026 [5] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's copper division opposes "involution" competition in the copper smelting industry, indicating potential relief from overcapacity and improved profitability for smelting companies [5] Group 2 - Jiangxi Copper is a leading copper smelting company in China, with an annual production capacity of 2.1 million tons of cathode copper, accounting for over 70% of its revenue [5] - Reports indicate that Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals regarding the potential restart of the closed Cobre Panama copper mine, expected to resume operations by the end of this year or early 2026 [5] - Jiangxi Copper is the largest shareholder of First Quantum, and starting in 2024, it will convert its investment in First Quantum from a financial instrument to long-term equity investment using the equity method [5] - The resumption of the Panama copper mine is anticipated to significantly enhance the company's profits [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong performance post-National Day holiday, driven by external market support, increased trading volume, and a broad-based rally in various sectors, particularly technology and resource sectors. Market Performance - On October 9, the three major A-share indices rose significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.75%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.77% [1] - Over 3,200 stocks in the market saw gains, indicating a strong bullish sentiment [1] Sector Highlights - **Precious Metals and Resources**: The surge in international gold prices led to a collective rise in the precious metals sector, with stocks like Sichuan Gold and Jiangxi Copper hitting the daily limit [1][5] - **Controlled Nuclear Fusion**: The controlled nuclear fusion sector saw explosive growth, with multiple stocks, including Guoguang Electric, reaching the daily limit [1][4] - **Semiconductors**: The semiconductor sector continued its strong performance, with companies like Huahong Semiconductor and CanSemi both hitting historical highs [1] - **Batteries and Other Sectors**: Other sectors such as batteries, securities, and steel also showed notable activity during the trading session [1] Market Drivers - **External Environment and Currency Support**: The strong market performance was supported by a favorable external environment, with global indices rising during the National Day holiday, particularly in Southeast Asia [2] - **Increased Trading Volume**: The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan, reflecting active participation from new capital [2] - **Technological and Resource Sector Catalysts**: The technology sector was buoyed by positive news from the AI industry, while the resource sector benefited from a historic rise in gold prices, surpassing $4,000 per ounce [2][5] Institutional Insights - **Zhongshan Securities**: The market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by ongoing inflows of new capital and a stable economic backdrop [3][8] - **CITIC Securities**: The focus remains on technology and gold sectors, with expectations of continued strength in these areas due to global liquidity and improving U.S.-China relations [9] - **Shenwan Hongyuan**: The outlook for the fourth quarter remains positive, with a focus on technology and select cyclical sectors [10] - **Industrial Trends**: Emphasis on sectors benefiting from the "14th Five-Year Plan," including innovative pharmaceuticals, AI, and battery technologies [11]