Core Viewpoint - After the easing of the tariff war, Yiwu's orders from the U.S. are gradually recovering, but the international environment remains uncertain, leading Yiwu merchants to adopt a cautiously optimistic attitude [1] Group 1: Digital Trade Ecosystem - Yiwu China Small Commodities City launched the "Global Digital Trade Center E-commerce Gravity Acceleration Plan" on May 20, inviting 17 major global e-commerce platforms to accelerate the construction of a digital trade ecosystem [1][3] - The event attracted over 200,000 online and offline participants, marking a surge in digital e-commerce interest in Yiwu [3] - The plan aims to provide Yiwu merchants with policy support, traffic assistance, and methodological guidance to enhance their global presence [13] Group 2: Multi-Channel Strategy - Yiwu merchants learned from past trade wars that diversifying channels is essential to mitigate risks in a complex international environment [1] - The integration of AI and cross-border e-commerce platforms is crucial for merchants to proactively market their products and seize market opportunities [7][10] - The "Global Digital Trade Center" is set to open in October, featuring AI digital technology and innovative layouts to create a new digital trade ecosystem [13][15] Group 3: Global Collaboration - The event highlighted the collaboration between local insights from platforms like Alibaba and Tencent and international strategies from platforms like Walmart and Shopee, creating a bridge for trade between China and regions like Africa and Latin America [4] - Merchants expressed that the digital ecosystem in Yiwu provides them with the confidence to explore multiple procurement channels, reducing costs and risks associated with relying on single sources [8][10] - The acceleration plan is expected to break down trade barriers and simplify procurement processes for overseas buyers [10][15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies within the discretionary consumption sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance relative to the market [1][3][5]. Core Insights - The pet and U.S. hotel sectors have shown the best performance this week, with valuations in most sectors still below the average of the past five years [1][4][13]. - The report highlights that the average increase for leading companies in the pet sector was 9.1%, driven by favorable trade negotiations and the commencement of the 618 pre-sale [4][15][17]. - Valuation analysis indicates that most sub-sectors are trading below their historical averages, suggesting potential investment opportunities [5][9][19]. Sector Performance Review - Weekly performance rankings: Pet > U.S. Hotel > Credit Card > Cosmetics > Gambling > Sportswear > Luxury Goods > Snacks [7][14]. - Monthly performance rankings: Pet > U.S. Hotel > Gambling > Cosmetics > Sportswear > Credit Card > Luxury Goods > Snacks [14]. - Year-to-date (YTD) performance rankings: Pet > Luxury Goods > Cosmetics > Snacks > Credit Card > U.S. Hotel > Sportswear > Gambling [14]. Valuation Analysis - As of May 16, 2025, the expected P/E ratios for various sectors are as follows: - Sportswear: 15.6x (77% of 5-year average) - Luxury Goods: 18.4x (52% of 5-year average) - Gambling: 14.2x (23% of 5-year average) - Cosmetics: 36.8x (91% of 5-year average) - Pet: 50x (51% of 5-year average) - Snacks: 24.3x (37% of 5-year average) - U.S. Hotel: 29.4x (18% of 5-year average) - Credit Card: 32x (61% of 5-year average) [5][9][18][19].

Group 1: ESG Report Methodology - DeepSeek's R1 reasoning model is suitable for deep analysis tasks, requiring logical reasoning and concise instructions[3] - The R1 model excels in complex reasoning, while the V3 model is better for general language tasks[10] - Avoid pitfalls such as iteration traps and overly complex instructions when using DeepSeek for report analysis[14] Group 2: Leading ESG Companies - Vanke A leads with an ESG score of 9.05, driven by a comprehensive ESG management system and green technology[31] - Ping An Insurance ranks first in the non-banking financial sector with significant integration of ESG into core business[3] - CATL, the top in the power equipment sector, doubled its zero-carbon factories and increased lithium salt recycling by 31%[3] Group 3: Notable ESG Improvements - Xiaogoods City achieved the highest ESG score improvement, rising from B to AA by restructuring governance and enhancing environmental metrics[33] - Tianqi Lithium's ESG score improved significantly due to better governance and environmental management, with an 8.58% reduction in carbon emissions[36] - Foster's ESG score increased through enhanced governance, climate action, and energy efficiency improvements[40] Group 4: ESG Score Distribution - Over 40% of the stocks in the CSI 300 have ESG scores between 7 and 8, with only 2 stocks scoring above 9[27] - 16 stocks, including Vanke and Ping An, have ESG scores above 8.5, indicating strong performance in sustainability[27]

证券研究报告 行业深度 商贸零售&社会服务 高性价比国产大模型应用落地加速，探索 AI+消费投资机会 AI+消费专题报告 2025 年 05 月 13 日 评级 同步大市 维持 | 重点股票 | 2024A | | 2025E | | 2026E | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EPS（元） PE（倍） EPS（元） PE（倍）EPS（元） PE（倍） | | | | | | | | 小商品城 | 0.56 | 28.81 | 0.72 | 22.35 | 0.92 | 17.63 | 增持 | | 学大教育 | 1.47 | 36.54 | 2.07 | 25.97 | 2.66 | 20.27 | 增持 | 执业证书编号:S0530522020001 zhangxiyue@hnchasing.com 相关报告 1 商贸零售行业事件点评：离境退税政策优化升 级，释放入境消费新动能 2025-04-14 此报告 考 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 资料来源： iFinD ，财信证券 行业涨跌幅比较 % 1M 3M ...

小商品城(600415.SH)发布投资者关系活动记录表，2025年一季度义支付平台跨境支付GMV为12.02亿美 金，同比增长40%以上，整体增长趋势良好。2025年公司将重点推进全球数贸中心建设，计划于10月实 现市场板块开业，为强化数字化履约与供应链能力，公司将加速Chinagoods平台智能化升级，AI应用覆 盖商家超3万户，通过"义支付"平台实现跨境支付60亿美元。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **cross-border e-commerce industry** and its response to recent changes in tariff policies, highlighting the resilience and growth potential of the sector amid economic fluctuations [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Tariff Negotiations**: Recent tariff negotiations have improved, with punitive tariffs reduced to **40%-50%**, alleviating risks for export companies and allowing them to resume operations [1][3]. - **Impact on ToC Cross-Border E-commerce**: The ToC segment of cross-border e-commerce is less affected by tariffs due to high markup rates (generally over **5 times**, with some brands exceeding **10 times**), enabling effective cost transfer [1][4]. - **Price Increases**: Many companies implemented price increases of **20%-30%** after April, which did not significantly impact demand, indicating strong reliance on Chinese products in the U.S. market [1][4]. - **Beneficiary Companies**: Companies benefiting from tariff reductions include: - **Leading Companies**: Such as Anker Innovations and Stone Technology, which have strong pricing power [1][6][12]. - **Value-oriented Companies**: Like Huakai 100 and Saiwei Times, which can adjust prices with minimal operational risk [9]. - **Flexible Non-listed Companies**: Such as Xiaoshangcheng, which can navigate tariff pressures effectively [1][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The cross-border e-commerce sector shows resilience, with improved shipping efficiency for leading companies due to reduced tariffs, and a focus on companies with strong pricing transmission capabilities [1][10]. - **European Market Performance**: There is a notable increase in market attention towards non-U.S. companies, with strong European orders contributing to performance recovery for companies like Xiaoshangcheng [11]. - **Long-term Growth Prospects**: The cross-border e-commerce industry is expected to see increased penetration and expansion in overseas markets, driven by favorable policy adjustments and strong demand growth [5][13]. - **Economic Outlook**: Despite risks of a U.S. economic recession, the trend towards value-oriented consumption is expected to benefit online channels, which are better positioned than offline channels in terms of product variety and pricing [14]. Conclusion - The cross-border e-commerce industry is poised for growth, supported by favorable tariff changes and strong demand dynamics. Key players with pricing power and operational flexibility are likely to thrive in this evolving landscape [1][10][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail trade industry [1] Core Insights - In April, China's export value exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in dollar terms, significantly higher than the 1.9% predicted by economists [4][9] - The growth in exports was primarily driven by increases in exports to ASEAN (+20.8%), Africa (+25.3%), and Latin America (+17.3%), despite a 21% decline in exports to the U.S. [4][9] - Yiwu, where the small commodity city is located, reported a total import and export value of 167.4 billion yuan in March, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, with exports growing by 14.5% [4][9] - The report highlights the low dependency of Yiwu's exports on the U.S., with only 15% of its exports directed to the U.S. in the first quarter [4][9] - The Central Committee and State Council issued guidelines to enhance the Free Trade Zone, which is expected to benefit Yiwu [4][10] - The report is optimistic about the "Yiwu Deepening Reform Plan," which aims to promote further development in the market, especially in cross-border imports [4][10] - The small commodity city is recommended as a core investment target due to its low exposure to U.S. tariffs and ongoing business development [4][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - In April, China's exports showed a remarkable increase despite tariff impacts, with significant growth in non-U.S. markets [4][9] - Yiwu's performance in the first quarter indicates a robust export environment, less affected by U.S. tariffs [4][9] Market Review - The report notes the performance of various indices, with the retail trade index increasing by 0.88% from May 6 to May 11, 2025 [11] - Year-to-date, the retail trade index has risen by 7.08% [11][15] Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for various companies, indicating their market capitalization, closing prices, and profit forecasts [17] - Notable companies such as "Xiaoshangpin City" are highlighted with a buy rating, reflecting strong growth potential [18]

Group 1: Chengdu Xian Dao - Chengdu Xian Dao is a global leader in DNA-encoded library (DEL) technology development and application, having established the world's first DEL alliance with several international pharmaceutical companies [1] - The company has advantages such as an early start, high molecular diversity in its library, and mature screening technology, ensuring no conflicts of interest among clients [1] - Notable clients like BioAge and Pfizer have utilized Chengdu Xian Dao's DEL technology to identify novel molecules that have entered various stages of research and development [1] - The DEL technology has been widely applied in the discovery of protein-protein interaction (PPI) inhibitors, employing customized screening strategies effectively in PPI drug development [1] Group 2: Small Commodity City - The Chinagoods platform leverages resources from 75,000 physical shops to serve 2.1 million small and micro enterprises in the supply chain, focusing on trade data integration [2] - The platform offers not only product display and transaction functions but also deeply integrates trade fulfillment services, creating a complete trade loop [2] - Recent reforms in international trade import policies show significant advantages over existing methods, including simplified customs processes, full traceability, reduced transaction costs, expanded product circulation, and enhanced supply chain competitiveness [2] - The global digital trade center has attracted 10,000 clients, nearly three times the number of initially opened shops, indicating a positive overall recruitment situation [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail trade industry [1] Core Insights - In April, China's export value exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in dollar terms, significantly surpassing the 1.9% forecast by Reuters. This growth occurred despite a 21% decline in exports to the U.S. The main drivers of this growth were exports to ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America, which saw increases of 20.8%, 25.3%, and 17.3% respectively [4][9] - Yiwu, where the small commodity city is located, reported impressive import and export growth in the first quarter of 2025, with total import and export value reaching 167.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, and exports amounting to 147.3 billion yuan, up 14.5%. The city's low dependency on U.S. exports (only 15% of total exports) positions it favorably under the current tariff environment [4][9] - The report highlights the potential benefits for Yiwu from the recent policy initiatives aimed at enhancing the free trade zone, which includes measures to streamline customs processes for food and drug imports. This is expected to further boost the market, especially in cross-border imports [10] - The report recommends investing in the small commodity city as a core asset for non-U.S. exports, citing its low exposure to U.S. tariffs, ongoing market reforms, and the upcoming launch of new global trade centers expected to enhance profitability [4][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report notes that despite tariff impacts, China's exports have shown robust growth, particularly in non-U.S. markets, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [4][9] Market Performance - The retail trade index increased by 0.88% during the week of May 6 to May 11, 2025, while the overall market indices also showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.92% [11][14] Company Valuation Table - The report includes a detailed valuation table for various companies within the industry, highlighting their market capitalization, closing prices, and projected earnings, with several companies rated as "Buy" or "Overweight" [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of Linyi's commercial landscape into an immersive cultural tourism destination is driving significant consumer engagement and economic growth, showcasing a successful model of integrating commerce with cultural experiences [1][3][8]. Group 1: Economic Impact and Consumer Engagement - The "May Day" holiday has sparked a consumption boom in Linyi, with various activities attracting tourists and enhancing the local economy [1]. - A recent tourism event brought 1,200 visitors from nine cities to Linyi Small Commodity City, highlighting the shift from traditional wholesale to experiential shopping [2]. - The region has invested 150 million yuan in upgrading 15 markets to meet A-level scenic area standards, enhancing visitor services and experiences [3]. Group 2: Cultural Integration and Experience - Linyi is redefining its markets by integrating cultural elements, transforming them from mere transaction spaces into cultural communities [4][8]. - The introduction of intangible cultural heritage projects, such as traditional crafts, is attracting younger consumers and enhancing product value [4]. - The immersive shopping experiences, such as themed exhibition halls, allow customers to engage deeply with products, fostering emotional connections [5]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Service Enhancements - A three-dimensional system focusing on credit, transportation, and service quality is being implemented to support sustainable development in the commercial tourism sector [6]. - Traffic management strategies, including expanded parking and increased public transport frequency, are designed to facilitate visitor access and enhance their shopping experience [7]. - The establishment of volunteer service stations aims to provide personalized assistance to tourists, creating a welcoming atmosphere [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Vision - The ongoing integration of commerce and culture in Linyi represents a new paradigm for traditional trade cities, emphasizing the importance of emotional resonance in consumer experiences [8]. - The model being developed in Linyi is seen as a potential blueprint for other regions aiming to revitalize their commercial landscapes through cultural engagement [8].