Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive investment outlook for Keda Manufacturing and recommends Shengfeng Cement as a key stock for February [2][12]. Core Insights - Keda Manufacturing's acquisition of the remaining 51.55% stake in Tefu International is viewed positively, with projected revenues of 8.187 billion yuan and net profits of 1.474 billion yuan by 2025 [2]. - Shengfeng Cement is favored due to its resilient business model, low production costs, and significant investments in new economic projects exceeding 1.9 billion yuan [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in traditional electronic fabrics and related materials, driven by AI demand and copper price fluctuations [3][15]. - The trend towards space photovoltaic energy is highlighted, with a focus on UTG and TCO glass as essential materials for future energy solutions [4][14]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Keda Manufacturing's stock resumption is positively received, and the acquisition strengthens its strategic partnerships [2]. - Shengfeng Cement is recommended for its stable core business and cash flow from new investments [2]. Market Performance - The construction materials index showed a mixed performance, with glass manufacturing and fiberglass sectors performing well, while cement manufacturing faced slight declines [19][21]. Price Changes in Construction Materials - National average cement price decreased to 345 yuan/ton, with a slight increase in sales rates [16]. - Float glass prices increased to 1,144.80 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.53% rise, while inventory levels decreased slightly [16][39]. Important Changes - Several companies released performance forecasts, and Keda Manufacturing announced a capital increase plan for the acquisition of Tefu International [6].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Volume Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses volume-based timing signals to assess market sentiment and provide trading signals[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model evaluates the volume timing signals of major broad-based indices - Signals are categorized as "cautious" or "optimistic" based on volume trends - As of January 30, 2026, all major indices (e.g., SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, etc.) showed "cautious" volume timing signals[24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a straightforward approach to gauge market sentiment but may lack granularity in capturing nuanced market dynamics[23][24] 2. Model Name: Momentum Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies market sentiment by analyzing the proportion of stocks with positive returns in the CSI 300 Index over a specific period[24] - **Model Construction Process**: - The indicator is calculated as: $ \text{CSI 300 N-day Upward Stock Proportion} = \frac{\text{Number of CSI 300 stocks with positive returns over N days}}{\text{Total number of CSI 300 stocks}} $ - The indicator is smoothed using two moving averages with different window periods (N1 = 50, N2 = 35) to create a "fast line" and a "slow line" - A buy signal is generated when the fast line exceeds the slow line, and a neutral signal is generated when the fast line falls below the slow line[26][28] - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator is effective in capturing upward market opportunities but may fail to predict downturns accurately. It also tends to miss gains during prolonged market exuberance[25] 3. Model Name: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses an eight-moving-average system to assess the trend state of the CSI 300 Index and generate trading signals[32] - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the eight moving averages of the CSI 300 Index closing price with parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and 233 - Assign values to the indicator based on the number of moving averages the current price exceeds: - If the price exceeds more than five moving averages, the sentiment is bullish - Generate a buy signal when the current price exceeds five moving averages[36] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a clear framework for trend analysis but may oversimplify complex market dynamics[36] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Volume Timing Model - All major indices (e.g., SSE Composite Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, etc.) showed "cautious" volume timing signals as of January 30, 2026[24] 2. Momentum Sentiment Indicator - The CSI 300 N-day upward stock proportion indicator was above 60% as of January 30, 2026, indicating high market sentiment[25] - The fast line was above the slow line, suggesting a bullish outlook for the CSI 300 Index[26] 3. Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - The CSI 300 Index was in a "sentiment prosperity zone" as of January 30, 2026, indicating a bullish sentiment[36] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cross-sectional Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the dispersion of returns among index constituents to assess the Alpha environment[37] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the cross-sectional volatility of index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) - Compare the recent quarter's average volatility to historical percentiles to evaluate the Alpha environment[38] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures short-term Alpha opportunities but may not fully reflect long-term trends[37] 2. Factor Name: Time-series Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the volatility of index constituents over time to assess the Alpha environment[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the time-series volatility of index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) - Compare the recent quarter's average volatility to historical percentiles to evaluate the Alpha environment[41] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides insights into market stability but may be less effective in highly volatile markets[38] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cross-sectional Volatility - CSI 300: Recent quarter average volatility at 2.14%, in the 69.55th percentile of the past two years[38] - CSI 500: Recent quarter average volatility at 2.45%, in the 50.79th percentile of the past two years[38] - CSI 1000: Recent quarter average volatility at 2.61%, in the 66.93rd percentile of the past two years[38] 2. Time-series Volatility - CSI 300: Recent quarter average volatility at 0.96%, in the 57.20th percentile of the past two years[41] - CSI 500: Recent quarter average volatility at 1.22%, in the 50.79th percentile of the past two years[41] - CSI 1000: Recent quarter average volatility at 1.17%, in the 64.94th percentile of the past two years[41]

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：600499 证券简称：科达制造 公告编号：2026-011 科达制造股份有限公司 关于股票交易异常波动的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 1、生产经营情况 经公司自查，公司目前日常经营情况及外部环境未发生重大变化，公司经营活动正常，不存在影响公司 股票交易价格异常波动的重大事宜，不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息。 2、重大事项情况 公司于2026年1月29日披露了《关于科达制造股份有限公司发行股份及支付现金购买资产并募集配套资 金暨关联交易方案的议案》等相关公告，公司拟发行股份及支付现金的方式购买广东特福国际控股有限 公司51.55%股份，并向不超过35名特定投资者发行股份募集配套资金。截至本公告披露日，本次交易 相关的审计、评估工作尚未完成，公司会同有关各方正积极推进本次交易的相关工作。 ● 科达制造股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股票在2026年1月29日、30日连续两个交易日内收盘价格 涨幅偏离值累计超过20%。根据《上海证券 ...

证券代码：600499 证券简称：科达制造 公告编号：2026-011 科达制造股份有限公司 科达制造股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股票在 2026 年 1 月 29 日、 30 日连续两个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超过 20%。根据《上海证券交易 所交易规则》的有关规定，属于股票交易异常波动。 因筹划重大资产重组，公司 A 股股票已于 2026 年 1 月 15 日开市起 停牌；2026 年 1 月 28 日，公司第九届董事会第十五次会议审议通过了《关 于科达制造股份有限公司发行股份及支付现金购买资产并募集配套资金暨 关联交易方案的议案》等相关议案，公司 A 股股票于 2026 年 1 月 29 日开 市起复牌。经公司自查并向第一大股东梁桐灿及其一致行动人广东宏宇集团有限 公司（以下简称"宏宇集团"）核实确认，截至本公告披露日，本公司、梁桐灿及其 一致行动人宏宇集团均不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息。 目前，公司上述重大资产重组事项涉及的审计、评估工作及审批程序尚未 完成，相关交易能否最终成功实施存在不确定性，敬请广大投资者注意投资风险！ 一、股票交易异常波动的具体情况 公司股票于 2026 年 1 月 ...

科达制造公告称，公司股票在2026年1月29日、30日连续两个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离值累计超 20%，属异常波动。因筹划重大资产重组，公司股票于1月15日开市起停牌，1月29日开市起复牌。公司 拟发行股份及支付现金购买广东特福国际控股有限公司51.55%股份并募集配套资金，目前审计、评估 及审批程序未完成，交易能否成功实施存在不确定性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The specialized equipment sector experienced a slight increase of 0.67% on January 30, with Oat Technology leading the gains, while the overall Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.96% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66% [1]. - Oat Technology (688312) saw a significant increase of 13.17%, closing at 38.85, with a trading volume of 101,100 shares and a transaction value of 376 million [1]. - Other notable gainers included: - Lijun Thermal (603391) up 10.00% to 69.71 [1]. - Tianqi Co., Ltd. (002009) up 10.00% to 28.38, with a trading volume of 949,100 shares and a transaction value of 2.581 billion [1]. - Keda Manufacturing (600499) up 8.79% to 17.69, with a trading volume of 1,414,500 shares and a transaction value of 2.429 billion [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The specialized equipment sector saw a net outflow of 236 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 946 million [2]. - The capital flow for specific stocks included: - Invek (002837) had a net inflow of 101.1 million from institutional investors but a net outflow of 650 million from retail investors [3]. - Tianqi Co., Ltd. (002009) had a net inflow of 36.9 million from institutional investors but a net outflow of 19.7 million from retail investors [3]. - Keda Manufacturing (600499) had a net inflow of 78.3 million from institutional investors, with significant outflows from retail investors [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Keda Manufacturing plans to acquire a 51.55% stake in Guangdong Teflon International Holdings Co., Ltd. through a combination of issuing shares and cash payment, aiming for full control and expansion of its building materials capacity in West Africa [1][2] - The share issuance price is set at 10.80 yuan per share, and upon completion of the transaction, Teflon International will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keda Manufacturing [1] - Teflon International operates 25 production lines across seven African countries and has a strong brand presence in sub-Saharan Africa, which is expected to enhance Keda Manufacturing's overall profitability after the acquisition [1] Group 2 - Keda Manufacturing also plans to build a float glass production line in Ghana with a daily melting capacity of 600 tons, utilizing self-raised funds as part of its "big building materials" strategy [2] - Ghana, as a member of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), has a strong regional influence but lacks local glass production capacity, indicating clear market demand [2] - The new project will leverage existing resources from Keda's ceramic base in Ghana, reducing operational costs and benefiting from the experience gained from the Tanzania glass project [2]

Group 1 - Keda Manufacturing's stock price increased by 5.17% to 17.10 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 615 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.92%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 32.795 billion CNY [1] - The stock has risen for 10 consecutive days, with a cumulative increase of 0% during this period [1] - Keda Manufacturing, established on December 11, 1996, and listed on October 10, 2002, operates in the production and sales of building materials machinery, overseas building materials, lithium battery materials and equipment, and has strategic investments in lithium salt business [1] Group 2 - Keda Manufacturing's revenue composition includes 46.06% from overseas building materials, 31.38% from building materials machinery, 11.33% from lithium battery materials, 8.68% from new energy equipment, and 2.55% from other sources [1] - Anxin Fund holds Keda Manufacturing as a significant investment, with Anxin Consumer Medicine Stock A (000974) owning 492,300 shares, representing 3.69% of the fund's net value, ranking as the ninth largest holding [2] - The fund has generated an estimated floating profit of approximately 413,500 CNY today, with no floating profit during the 10-day rising period [2]

Core Viewpoint - Keda Manufacturing is enhancing its global presence through a significant asset restructuring plan, which includes acquiring a majority stake in Tefu International and investing in a glass production project in Ghana [1][3]. Group 1: Acquisition of Tefu International - Keda Manufacturing plans to acquire 51.55% of Tefu International through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, while also raising funds from up to 35 specific investors [2][3]. - Tefu International is a key player in Keda's overseas building materials business, operating in over 60 countries and regions, with a projected revenue of 8.187 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.474 billion yuan for 2025 [2][3]. Group 2: Investment in Ghana - The company is investing approximately $94.718 million (about 660 million yuan) to establish a float glass production line in Ghana, aiming to capitalize on the growing demand for building materials in West Africa [4][5]. - The project will have a production capacity of 600 tons per day and is expected to begin construction in August 2027, with a construction period of 19-20 months [5]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Position - Keda Manufacturing's overseas revenue is projected to account for 63.65% in 2024 and 66.5% in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong international market presence [1][3]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 12.605 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.149 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 47.19% and 63.49% respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The acquisition of a 51.55% stake in Tefu International is expected to significantly enhance the company's net profit attributable to shareholders, with Tefu's projected revenue for 2025 at 8.187 billion RMB and net profit at 1.474 billion RMB [3]. - The company plans to invest 94.72 million USD (approximately 660 million RMB) in a new float glass project in Ghana, which is expected to have a production capacity of 600 tons per day [3]. - The lithium carbonate segment is projected to benefit from rising prices, with the price reaching 172,000 RMB per ton as of January 28, 2026, leading to a significant recovery in profitability for this segment [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.554 billion RMB in 2025, 3.135 billion RMB in 2026, and 3.810 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 9, and 7 times [5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 9.696 billion RMB in 2023 to 22.342 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 29.96% from 2024 to 2025 [10]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.525 RMB in 2024 to 1.986 RMB in 2027 [10].