Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a decline in revenue for 2024, with a total operating income of 32.14 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased slightly by 1.8% to 4.34 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's gross margin improved to 40.23%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs [2] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 13.98%, up 1.16 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decline in revenue [2] - The company reported a significant increase in online product sales, with a year-on-year growth of 21% in 2024, marking 12 consecutive years of growth in this channel [1] Product and Sales Dynamics - The company's beer sales volume decreased by 5.9% year-on-year in 2024, while the average price per ton increased by 0.6% [1] - The main brand, Tsingtao Beer, sold 4.34 million kiloliters in 2024, down 4.8% year-on-year, while other brands saw a 7.2% decline in sales volume [1] - The company is focusing on upgrading its product structure, with mid-to-high-end products accounting for 3.15 million kiloliters sold in 2024, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year [1] Management Changes - The company underwent a management transition with the retirement of Chairman Huang Kexing and the election of President Jiang Zongxiang as the new Chairman, bringing extensive experience in governance and strategic management [3] - The new management is expected to drive growth in 2025, supported by a low base and recovery in the dining channel [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 4.846 billion yuan and 5.171 billion yuan, respectively, with an introduction of a 2027 forecast at 5.442 billion yuan [3] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 3.55, 3.79, and 3.99 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22x, 20x, and 19x [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) [3][5] Core Views - In 2024, Qingdao Beer is expected to achieve operating revenue of 32.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 4.34 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year [1] - The company is experiencing a decline in sales volume but an increase in product pricing, indicating a continuous upgrade in product structure [1] - The new management team, led by Chairman Jiang Zongxiang, is anticipated to drive the company towards better performance in 2025, supported by a low base and recovery in the catering channel [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company's gross margin is expected to be 40.23%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs [2] - The net profit margin for 2024 is projected to reach 13.98%, up by 1.16 percentage points year-on-year [2] Sales Performance - In 2024, the company's beer sales volume decreased by 5.9% year-on-year, while the average price per ton increased by 0.6% [1] - Online product sales grew by 21% year-on-year, marking 12 consecutive years of growth [1] Management Changes - The resignation of former Chairman Huang Kexing and the appointment of Jiang Zongxiang as the new Chairman is expected to mark a new chapter in the company's development [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 and 2026 is 4.846 billion yuan and 5.171 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.55 yuan and 3.79 yuan [3][4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 22x for 2025, 20x for 2026, and 19x for 2027 [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the recommended stocks in the consumer sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance over the next 12 months [6][10][11][12][13][15][16][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights nine advantageous sectors within the consumer industry, including agriculture, retail, social services, automotive, textiles, light industry, food, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals, with specific stock recommendations for each sector [3][6]. - The recommended stocks are expected to show strong growth potential, driven by factors such as brand expansion, technological advancements, and market demand recovery [10][11][12][13][15][16][19]. Summary by Sector Agriculture - Recommended Stock: Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (中宠股份) - Focus on pet food industry with strong brand growth and global capacity expansion. Expected net profits for 2024-2026 are 380 million, 430 million, and 540 million CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 33, 29, and 23 [10]. Retail - Recommended Stock: Mao Ge Ping (毛戈平) - Multi-category expansion strategy with strong growth in membership and repeat purchases. Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.17 billion, 1.50 billion, and 1.86 billion CNY, with PE ratios of 39.9, 31.0, and 25.0 [11]. Social Services - Recommended Stock: Keri International (科锐国际) - Benefiting from cyclical recovery and AI integration, with expected net profits of 287 million and 400 million CNY for 2025-2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 24 and 17 [11]. Automotive - Recommended Stock: BYD (比亚迪) - Strong competitive edge through technology and scale, with expected net profits of 57 billion, 69.3 billion, and 79.1 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with PE ratios of 20.4, 16.8, and 14.7 [12]. Textiles - Recommended Stock: Hailan Home (海澜之家) - Steady brand performance and expansion into high-value markets, with expected net profits of 2.04 billion, 2.58 billion, and 3.44 billion CNY for 2024-2026, with PE ratios of 19, 15, and 11 [13]. Light Industry - Recommended Stock: Yingqu Technology (盈趣科技) - Focus on multiple growth segments with expected net profits of 250 million, 500 million, and 660 million CNY for 2024-2026, with PE ratios of 49, 24, and 18 [14]. Food - Recommended Stock: Qingdao Beer (青岛啤酒) - Recovery in sales and cost improvements expected, with projected EPS of 3.78 and 4.10 CNY for 2025-2026, corresponding to PE ratios of 20 and 19 [15]. Home Appliances - Recommended Stock: Gree Electric (格力电器) - Strong brand and cost advantages in the air conditioning market, with expected net profits of 31.44 billion, 34.06 billion, and 36.96 billion CNY for 2024-2026, with PE ratios of 8.1, 7.4, and 6.9 [16]. Pharmaceuticals - Recommended Stock: Sanofi Pharmaceutical (三生制药) - Promising pipeline with innovative products, expected net profits of 640 million, 860 million, and 990 million CNY for 2024-2026, with PE ratios of 17.8, 13.2, and 11.4 [19].

Investment Rating - Strongly Recommended (Maintain) with a target price of 89 CNY and a current stock price of 76.53 CNY [3] Core Views - The company is expected to recover in 2025 due to improved operating conditions following a leadership transition and a resurgence in dining traffic, which will enhance revenue and profitability [1][6] - The company faced external demand pressures in 2024, leading to adjustments in delivery schedules to manage channel inventory, while maintaining stable growth through cost and expense control [6] Financial Data Summary - Total Revenue (CNY million): - 2023: 33,937 - 2024: 32,138 (YoY -5%) - 2025E: 33,278 (YoY +4%) - 2026E: 34,327 (YoY +3%) - 2027E: 35,256 (YoY +3%) [2][13] - Operating Profit (CNY million): - 2023: 5,737 - 2024: 5,843 (YoY +2%) - 2025E: 6,504 (YoY +11%) - 2026E: 7,040 (YoY +8%) - 2027E: 7,551 (YoY +7%) [2][13] - Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders (CNY million): - 2023: 4,268 - 2024: 4,345 (YoY +2%) - 2025E: 4,830 (YoY +11%) - 2026E: 5,224 (YoY +8%) - 2027E: 5,598 (YoY +7%) [2][13] - Earnings Per Share (CNY): - 2023: 3.13 - 2024: 3.19 - 2025E: 3.54 - 2026E: 3.83 - 2027E: 4.10 [2][14] Key Financial Ratios - PE Ratio: - 2023: 24.5 - 2024: 24.0 - 2025E: 21.6 - 2026E: 20.0 - 2027E: 18.6 [2][14] - PB Ratio: - 2023: 3.8 - 2024: 3.6 - 2025E: 3.4 - 2026E: 3.2 - 2027E: 3.0 [2][14] - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2023: 16.1% - 2024: 15.4% - 2025E: 16.1% - 2026E: 16.4% - 2027E: 16.6% [2][14]

买入（维持） 2024Q4 营收环比改善，成本红利带动盈利提升 青岛啤酒（600600）2024 年年报点评 2025 年 3 月 31 日 投资要点： 事件：公司发布2024年年报。 点评： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 股价走势 资料来源：同花顺，东莞证券研究所 公 司 研 究 公 司 点 评 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 主要数据 食品饮料行业 2025 年 3 月 28 日 收盘价(元) 76.53 总市值（亿元） 1044 总股本(亿股) 13.64 流通股本(亿股) 13.64 ROE（TTM） 14.95% 12 月最高价(元) 86.18 12 月最低价(元) 53.20 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读末页声明。 2 ◼ 公司2024Q4营收环比改善。2024年，公司实现营业总收入321.38亿元， 同比下降5.30%；实现归母净利润4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The beer industry in China is experiencing a decline in sales volume, with major players facing challenges, while some smaller brands are showing growth in both sales and profitability [1][2][4]. Sales Performance - In 2024, major beer companies in China reported sales volume changes: Budweiser APAC down 11.8%, Qingdao Beer down 5.86%, China Resources Beer down 2.5%, Chongqing Beer down 0.75%, Yanjing Beer up 1.6%, and Zhujiang Beer up 2.62% [2][4]. - The overall beer production in China decreased by 0.6% in 2024, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment towards daily fast-moving consumer goods [2]. Market Dynamics - The gap in market share among major players has narrowed, with leading companies like China Resources, Qingdao, and Budweiser all experiencing declines in revenue and sales, while Yanjing and Zhujiang have continued to grow beyond industry levels [4]. - Zhujiang Beer saw a nearly 37% increase in net profit, while Yanjing Beer’s net profit surged by over 50% [4]. Premiumization Trends - Yanjing Beer achieved total sales exceeding 4 million kiloliters in 2024, with its flagship product Yanjing U8 selling close to 700,000 kiloliters, marking a growth rate of over 30% for two consecutive years [5]. - Zhujiang Beer reported a nearly 14% increase in sales of high-end beer products in 2024 [5]. Challenges for Leading Brands - Budweiser APAC faced a 1.4% decline in revenue per hectoliter in China, while Qingdao Beer’s sales of mid-to-high-end products dropped by 2.65% [6]. - Despite overall revenue and sales declines, leading beer companies emphasize that their premium products continue to grow, with China Resources Beer reporting that mid-range and above beer sales exceeded 50% of total sales for the first time [7]. Pricing and Profitability - The ton price for major brands in 2024 was as follows: China Resources Beer over 3,300 yuan, Qingdao Beer over 4,200 yuan, Budweiser APAC over 5,300 yuan, Chongqing Beer over 5,200 yuan, while Yanjing and Zhujiang Beer were around 3,100 yuan and 3,800 yuan respectively [9]. - Despite slight revenue declines, China Resources and Qingdao Beer still reported revenues exceeding 36 billion yuan and 32 billion yuan respectively, indicating a significant lead over smaller competitors [11]. Future Outlook - The beer industry, while facing volume declines, still has potential for slow growth if price increases can outpace volume decreases [11].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·食品饮料 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 邓洁 执业证书：S0600525030001 dengj@dwzq.com.cn 股价走势 青岛啤酒（600600） 2024 年报点评：轻装上阵，量价企稳 2025 年 03 月 31 日 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 33937 | 32138 | 33968 | 35492 | 36862 | | 同比（%） | 5.49 | (5.30) | 5.69 | 4.49 | 3.86 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4268 | 4345 | 4857 | 5255 | 5675 | | 同比（%） | 15.02 | 1.81 | 11.78 | 8.19 | 7.99 | | EP ...

Group 1: Company Performance - Jin Sanjiang achieved a revenue of 386 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 30.96%, with a net profit of 53.38 million yuan, up 52.54% [1] - Zhongqi Co. reported a revenue of 2.422 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 1.35%, but a net profit decline of 93.88% to 11.72 million yuan [1][2] - Xizi Clean Energy's revenue was 6.437 billion yuan, down 20.33%, while net profit surged 705.74% to 440 million yuan [3] - Shensi Electronics reported a revenue of 912 million yuan, up 119.86%, with a net profit of 16.30 million yuan, an increase of 123.51% [4] - Yong'an Forestry faced a revenue drop of 53.39% to 323 million yuan, resulting in a net loss of 85.04 million yuan [6] - Yangjie Technology achieved a revenue of 6.033 billion yuan, up 11.53%, with a net profit of 1.002 billion yuan, an increase of 8.50% [8] - Yayi Technology's revenue was 296 million yuan, up 87.22%, but net profit fell 40.49% to 1.12 million yuan [10] - Xiaosong Co. reported a revenue of 1.529 billion yuan, down 4.70%, with a net loss of 225 million yuan [11] - Wantong Expressway achieved a revenue of 7.092 billion yuan, up 6.94%, with a net profit of 1.669 billion yuan, an increase of 0.55% [13] - Hisense Visual reported a revenue of 58.53 billion yuan, up 9.17%, with a net profit of 2.246 billion yuan, an increase of 7.17% [14] - Heng Rui Medicine achieved a revenue of 27.985 billion yuan, up 22.63%, with a net profit of 6.337 billion yuan, an increase of 47.28% [15] - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 32.138 billion yuan, down 5.30%, with a net profit of 4.345 billion yuan, an increase of 1.81% [17] - Aikodi achieved a revenue of 6.746 billion yuan, up 13.24%, with a net profit of 940 million yuan, an increase of 2.86% [18] - Sifang Co. reported a revenue of 6.951 billion yuan, up 20.86%, with a net profit of 716 million yuan, an increase of 14.09% [19] - China Petroleum achieved a revenue of 2.94 trillion yuan, down 2.5%, with a net profit of 164.684 billion yuan, an increase of 2.0% [19] - Xinyaqiang reported a revenue of 721 million yuan, up 6.71%, but a net profit decline of 7.36% to 114 million yuan [20] Group 2: Dividend Proposals - Jin Sanjiang proposed a cash dividend of 1.70 yuan per 10 shares [1] - Zhongqi Co. proposed a cash dividend of 0.50 yuan per 10 shares [1] - Xizi Clean Energy proposed a cash dividend of 2.00 yuan per 10 shares [3] - Shensi Electronics did not specify a dividend proposal [4] - Yong'an Forestry did not specify a dividend proposal [6] - Yangjie Technology proposed a cash dividend of 4.00 yuan per 10 shares [8] - Yayi Technology proposed a cash dividend of 5.00 yuan per 10 shares and a capital reserve increase of 3 shares for every 10 shares [10] - Xiaosong Co. did not specify a dividend proposal [11] - Wantong Expressway proposed a cash dividend of 6.04 yuan per 10 shares [13] - Hisense Visual proposed a cash dividend of 8.80 yuan per 10 shares [14] - Heng Rui Medicine proposed a cash dividend of 2.00 yuan per 10 shares [15] - Qingdao Beer proposed a cash dividend of 2.20 yuan per share [17] - Aikodi proposed a cash dividend of 3.00 yuan per 10 shares [18] - Sifang Co. proposed a cash dividend of 7.20 yuan per 10 shares [19] - China Petroleum proposed a cash dividend of 0.25 yuan per share [19] - Xinyaqiang proposed a cash dividend of 0.40 yuan per share [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][23]. Core Views - The company has shown signs of stabilization and is expected to accelerate growth. The new leadership and macroeconomic policies are anticipated to improve consumption opportunities [2][8]. - The company reported a total revenue of 32.14 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.345 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8% [2][4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.20 yuan per share, totaling 3.001 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio increased by approximately 5 percentage points to 69% [2][4]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: - Total revenue: 32.14 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year - Net profit: 4.345 billion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year - Non-recurring net profit: 3.95 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year - Q4 revenue: 3.18 billion yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year [2][4][9] - **Future Projections**: - Expected revenue for 2025: 33.639 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.7% - Expected net profit for 2025: 4.875 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 12.2% [4][12] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 21 times - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio for 2025 is projected at 3.4 times [4][12] Market Position and Strategy - The company has completed inventory destocking, positioning itself for a strong start in 2025 with a low base effect. The new chairman is expected to enhance sales focus and improve product mix flexibility [2][8]. - The company anticipates a double-digit growth in profits for 2025, driven by cost advantages and improved sales performance [2][8].

Core Viewpoint - The beer industry in China is experiencing a decline in sales and revenue, with major players facing challenges in maintaining growth, while some smaller brands are gaining market share and profitability [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 32.138 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 5.3%, with a net profit of 4.345 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8%, and sales volume of 7.538 million kiloliters, down 5.86% [1]. - Among the five major beer companies, four experienced a decline in sales last year, with Budweiser APAC down 11.8%, Qingdao Beer down 5.86%, China Resources Beer down 2.5%, and Chongqing Beer down 0.75% [1]. - Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer were exceptions, with Yanjing Beer growing by 1.6% and Zhujiang Beer by 2.62% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market share gap among major players has narrowed, with leading companies like China Resources, Qingdao, and Budweiser all facing revenue and sales declines, while Yanjing and Zhujiang continue to grow beyond industry levels [3]. - Yanjing Beer achieved total sales exceeding 4 million kiloliters in 2024, with its flagship product Yanjing U8 seeing sales close to 700,000 kiloliters, growing over 30% for two consecutive years [3]. - Zhujiang Beer reported a nearly 14% increase in high-end beer product sales year-on-year, with net profit rising by nearly 37% [3]. Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - Despite overall revenue and sales declines, leading beer companies emphasize growth in their premium products, with China Resources reporting that mid-range and above beer sales accounted for over 50% of its total sales [3]. - The average price per ton for China Resources Beer exceeded 3,300 yuan, Qingdao Beer over 4,200 yuan, Budweiser APAC over 5,300 yuan, and Chongqing Beer over 5,200 yuan, while Yanjing and Zhujiang's prices were around 3,100 yuan and 3,800 yuan respectively [5]. - The leading companies still maintain significant revenue advantages, with China Resources and Qingdao Beer generating revenues of over 36 billion yuan and 32 billion yuan respectively, while Chongqing Beer, Yanjing Beer, and Zhujiang Beer reported revenues of 14.6 billion yuan, less than 13 billion yuan, and 5.7 billion yuan respectively [7].