Core Insights - Shede Liquor's stock price increased by 2.01% on September 19, reaching 65.51 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 21.799 billion CNY [1] - The company reported a year-to-date stock price change of 0.01%, with a 5-day decline of 0.97%, a 20-day increase of 7.55%, and a 60-day increase of 31.89% [1] - For the first half of 2025, Shede Liquor's revenue was 2.701 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 17.41%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 443 million CNY, down 24.98% [2] Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 0.72% to 129,700, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 0.72% to 2,564 shares [2] - The company has distributed a total of 2.29 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.353 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [2] Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the second-largest circulating shareholder is the China Securities Index White Wine Index A, holding 16.4538 million shares, unchanged from the previous period [2] - The fifth-largest shareholder is the Wine ETF, which increased its holdings by 854,400 shares to 4.3687 million shares [2] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, the sixth-largest shareholder, reduced its holdings by 969,300 shares to 1.3523 million shares [2]

Group 1: Market Performance - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant pullback on September 18, with the Food ETF (515710) dropping over 2% during intraday trading before closing down 1.41% [1] - Major liquor stocks, including Shede Liquor, Yanghe Brewery, and Luzhou Laojiao, saw declines exceeding 2%, while leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye fell over 1% [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Despite the recent pullback, there has been a notable influx of capital into the food and beverage sector, with the Food ETF (515710) recording a net subscription of 24.1 million CNY over the past five trading days [1] - The food and beverage sector is currently viewed as having a favorable valuation, with the Food ETF's underlying index PE ratio at 21.12, placing it at a low point historically [4] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Kweichow Moutai ranked third in the Kantar BrandZ Most Valuable Chinese Brands 2025 list, with a brand value of 80.023 billion USD, marking its sixth consecutive year in the top three [3] - Analysts suggest that as policy pressures ease, there is potential for a weak recovery in demand for liquor, particularly with the upcoming holiday season expected to improve sales [3][6] - The liquor industry is seen as being at a low valuation point, with expectations for gradual improvement in fundamentals as the market stabilizes [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.01% and a total market capitalization of 21.706 billion yuan, indicating a challenging market environment for the company [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shede Liquor reported a revenue of 2.701 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 443 million yuan, down 24.98% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed 2.29 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.353 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of September 18, 2023, Shede Liquor's stock price was 65.23 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 395 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.80% [1]. - The stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 0.42%, a 4.44% drop over the last five trading days, a 10.00% increase over the last 20 days, and a 31.27% increase over the last 60 days [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shede Liquor was 129,700, a decrease of 0.72% from the previous period, with an average of 2,564 circulating shares per shareholder, which increased by 0.72% [2]. - The second-largest circulating shareholder is the China Securities White Liquor Index A, holding 16.4538 million shares, while the Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited has reduced its holdings by 969,300 shares [3].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a recommendation for strong brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as Shanxi Fenjiu, which has a clear growth path in a counter-cyclical environment [5]. Core Insights - The industry is currently in a phase of accelerated bottoming, transitioning from "passive clearing" to "active adjustment" due to ongoing pressures from excess supply and demand scenarios [3][5]. - The first half of 2025 saw a negative growth in revenue and net profit for major liquor companies, marking the first negative growth in this cycle [15]. - The report highlights a structural opportunity during the volume adjustment period, with market pricing increasingly favoring dividend yield and market share [3][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The white liquor industry faced challenges in the first half of 2025, including slow macroeconomic recovery and strict alcohol prohibition policies, leading to a decline in consumption scenarios and continued pressure on demand [5]. - The overall revenue and net profit for 17 major liquor companies were 2368.3 billion and 944.6 billion respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 0.4% and 0.9% [15]. Performance Analysis - In Q2 2025, the revenue and net profit for the industry were 867.2 billion and 313.4 billion respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.7% and 7.3%, marking the first negative growth in revenue during this cycle [15]. - High-end liquor maintained positive growth, while the mid-range and regional brands experienced declines [20][22]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the market is shifting focus from short-term recovery scenarios to verifying the bottom of demand trends through year-on-year comparisons [3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the third quarter, driven by seasonal consumption events such as Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which may accelerate the bottoming process of the fundamentals [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on brands with strong market positions and growth potential, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and regional leaders like Guyi Gongjiu and Jinhui Jiu [5].

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector experienced a volatile pullback on September 17, with the Food ETF (515710) opening lower and maintaining a downward trend throughout the day, closing down 0.31% [1][2] - Several liquor stocks, particularly Kweichow Moutai, faced significant declines, with Jinhuijiu down 3%, and others like Jiu Gui Jiu and She De Jiu Ye dropping over 2% [1][3] - The overall sentiment in the liquor market is affected by recent clarifications from Kweichow Moutai regarding false promotional activities, emphasizing the stability of their distribution channels [1][3] Group 2 - Pacific Securities noted that the liquor sector is at a "fundamental bottom and low valuation" phase, with potential for weak recovery in demand as the Mid-Autumn Festival approaches [3][4] - The food and beverage sector is seeing mixed performance, with meat products and liquor leading gains, while snacks and beer are experiencing declines [3][4] - Current valuations in the food and beverage sector are at low levels, suggesting a favorable time for investment, with the Food ETF's price-to-earnings ratio at 21.12, marking a low point in the last decade [3][4] Group 3 - Everbright Securities indicated that the liquor sector is undergoing adjustments due to policy impacts, with a noticeable decline in demand, but a potential recovery is expected in the latter half of the year [4][5] - Xiangcai Securities highlighted the low valuation levels in the sector, suggesting opportunities for alpha generation through high-quality stocks [4][5] - The focus should be on companies with stable demand and strong risk resistance, as well as those innovating in new products and channels [5]

Summary of Shede Liquor Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shede Liquor Industry - **Industry**: Liquor and Beverage Key Points and Arguments Market Demand and Performance - Shede Liquor anticipates a release of market demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day despite facing policy pressures [2][3] - The company has adjusted its inventory and performance metrics over the past year, resulting in better performance compared to peers [2][3] Inventory Management - Overall inventory levels remain high, but the company aims to prioritize sales over invoices to gradually reduce inventory [2][6] - The current inventory is estimated to cover approximately 3 to 4 months, with weaker markets showing higher inventory levels [7] Sales Strategy - The company is implementing a "small orders quick run" strategy to lower entry barriers for new distributors and attract resourceful new partners [4][12] - Sales performance in various consumption scenarios (banquets, gifts, and business) is expected to improve with the upcoming holidays [5] Consumer Insights - Shede Liquor's consumers are primarily from emerging industries, showing less brand loyalty and a greater focus on drinking comfort rather than brand recognition [9] - The company leverages its high-quality aged liquor to cater to these consumer preferences [9] New Product Development - The launch of the 29-degree "Shede Zizai" low-alcohol liquor is focused on online sales and aims to test market response in 24 cities with a zero-inventory model [10][11] - The pricing strategy for the new product is set at around 300 yuan to differentiate it from high-concentration products [11] Challenges and Opportunities - The company is exploring opportunities in the technology sector due to slow recovery in the restaurant, business, and real estate chains [8] - The performance of the "Pinwei" series products is under pressure due to weak business demand, requiring time to cultivate the market [17] Financial Outlook - Shede Liquor expects to perform better than the industry in the second half of the year, with improvements dependent on overall industry adjustments [16] - The company plans to maintain stable sales expenses while focusing on consumer engagement to stimulate sales [18] Regional Market Insights - The growth in the Henan market in Q2 is attributed to a low base from the previous year, with expectations for gradual recovery [15] - The company is focusing on seven key base markets, ensuring comprehensive coverage across all price segments [14] Distributor Relations - Most distributors are currently profitable and show high confidence in the company, supported by various initiatives to enhance market presence [4][12][14] Additional Important Content - The company emphasizes the importance of dynamic adjustments in inventory management to ensure long-term health and development [2][6] - Shede Liquor's cautious approach to new product launches aims to avoid potential damage to brand reputation [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is shifting from a "business necessity" to a "lifestyle enjoyment" approach, with many companies launching lower-alcohol products to attract younger consumers and enhance market vitality [2][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Several major liquor companies, including Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shui Jing Fang, are actively introducing lower-alcohol products, indicating a trend towards product diversification and market adaptation [2][3]. - The market for low-alcohol liquor is projected to grow significantly, from approximately 20 billion yuan in 2020 to about 57 billion yuan in 2024, with an expected compound annual growth rate of 30% [4]. Group 2: Consumer Demographics - The primary consumer demographic for liquor is shifting, with older generations gradually exiting the market, while younger consumers, particularly those born after 1985, are becoming the main growth drivers [3][4]. - The younger generation prefers personalized, lower-alcohol, and social drinking experiences, which necessitates a strategic shift for liquor companies to engage this demographic effectively [3][5]. Group 3: Marketing and Sales Strategies - Companies need to adopt innovative marketing strategies, utilizing new media and experiential marketing to resonate with younger consumers and stimulate brand engagement [5][6]. - The current market faces challenges, including a lack of consumption scenarios for low-alcohol products and limited channel profitability, which may hinder sales unless companies implement supportive policies [5][6]. Group 4: Future Directions - Lowering alcohol content is seen as a starting point for companies to connect with younger consumers, but deeper engagement with consumer preferences and behaviors is essential for long-term success [6]. - The industry is entering a new era characterized by rational consumption attitudes, where understanding and responding to the needs of younger consumers will be crucial for driving growth [6].

Market Overview - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.62% on September 16, with Kweichow Moutai leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3861.87, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13063.97, up 0.45% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Kweichow Moutai (600519) closed at 1499.98, down 1.00%, with a trading volume of 32,700 and a transaction value of 4.928 billion [3] - Wuliangye (000858) closed at 125.80, down 0.67%, with a trading volume of 191,100 and a transaction value of 2.405 billion [3] - Luzhou Laojiao (000568) closed at 138.45, down 0.47%, with a trading volume of 61,000 and a transaction value of 843 million [3] - Other notable stocks include Yanghe Brewery (002304) at 71.80 (-0.46%) and Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) at 208.39 (+0.26%) [3] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 1.141 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 359 million [4] - Notable individual stock capital flows include: - JiuGuiJiu (000799) with a net inflow of 134 million from institutional investors [4] - Shede Liquor (600702) with a net inflow of 34.73 million from institutional investors [4] - Tianshunde Liquor (002646) with a significant net outflow of 5.74 million from institutional investors [4] Summary of Trading Data - The trading data for the liquor sector indicates varied performance among different stocks, with some experiencing gains while others faced declines [1][3] - The overall market sentiment appears cautious, reflected in the mixed capital flows and stock performance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The "Shede·Oriental Mediterranean" project, a joint investment of 10 billion yuan, aims to integrate liquor and tourism, enhancing the cultural and experiential aspects of the liquor industry while addressing the challenges faced by traditional liquor brands [1][3]. Investment and Project Overview - The project is a collaboration between Shede Liquor, the government of Shehong City, and ClubMed, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan, and is expected to be completed by 2029 [1][2]. - The project includes five thematic areas: "Ecological Shede," "Years of Shede," "Celebration of Shede," "Free Shede," and "Homecoming Shede," each offering different experiential scenarios [2]. Industry Context and Challenges - The liquor and tourism integration is becoming a significant transformation strategy for the liquor industry, with many companies exploring this model [4]. - Despite the growing interest, the liquor tourism sector in China is still in the exploratory phase compared to established wine tourism in regions like Bordeaux and Napa Valley [4]. Operational and Cultural Integration - The core of liquor-tourism integration is not merely adding a tourism component but enhancing the liquor industry through cultural and experiential offerings [3][5]. - The project aims to provide new branding channels and enhance consumer engagement through cultural and emotional experiences [3]. Location and Accessibility - The geographical advantage of Shehong City, located between Chengdu and Chongqing, is crucial for attracting a broader tourist base, with travel times expected to be reduced to one hour due to high-speed rail developments [6]. Professional Management and Sustainability - The integration of professional management resources, such as those from Fosun Tourism, is essential for overcoming operational challenges in the liquor-tourism sector [6]. - The project must establish a sustainable business model, as the tourism industry typically has long investment cycles and relies heavily on real estate [6]. Cultural Depth and Future Outlook - The depth of cultural exploration will determine the success of the liquor-tourism integration, with Shede's unique cultural philosophy being a key asset [7]. - The industry consensus is shifting towards the necessity of liquor-tourism integration, emphasizing the need for companies to assess their capabilities in this area [7].

Core Viewpoint - Shede Liquor's stock price has shown a positive trend, with a year-to-date increase of 4.72% and significant gains over various time frames, indicating strong market interest and performance [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shede Liquor reported a revenue of 2.701 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 443 million yuan, down 24.98% compared to the previous year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 2.29 billion yuan, with 1.353 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shede Liquor was approximately 129,700, a decrease of 0.72% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 0.72% to 2,564 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include notable entities such as the China Securities Index White Wine Index A and the Wine ETF, with changes in their holdings reflecting market dynamics [3].