出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：浪头饮食/ 郝显 2024年，白酒行业进入深度调整！ "行业产销双线下滑、终端动销整体放缓、消费场景萎缩、消费信心不足，诸多产品价格不同程度倒 挂，"茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉2024年中曾对白酒行业发展趋势作出过这样的判断。 在这种背景下，渠道库存问题凸显，头部酒企也频频通过停货稳定价格体系。白酒企业分化进一步加 剧，头部酒企仍能维持稳健增长，中小酒企则开始面对压力。 从上市公司层面来看，2024年酒企收入增速大幅放缓，收入下滑酒企数量从上年的2家增至6家。酒鬼酒 和顺鑫农业已经连续大幅下滑两年。 3家酒企经营活动现金流净额转负 经营活动现金流是衡量上市公司核心盈利能力和财务健康度的关键指标，2024年3家酒企经营活动现金 流净额转负，分别为舍得酒业、酒鬼酒、金种子酒，比上年多了两家。 去年8家公司经营活动现金流净额同比增长，剔除皇台酒业之后，增速最快的是泸州老窖、山西汾酒、 口子窖。此外贵州茅台增长38.85%，也排在前列。 此外，伊力特、洋河股份、顺鑫农业、舍得酒业、金种子酒、酒鬼酒在收入下滑的情况下，存货仍在增 长。 | | | 2024年上市白酒公司存货、现金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, driven by growth in mid-range products [1][5] - The company is focusing on high-end brand development and consumer cultivation in key markets [8] Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 52.17 billion and 13.41 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 5% and 6% [5] - For Q1 2025, revenue and net profit were 9.59 billion and 1.90 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 3% and 2% [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 83%, with a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 26%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [5] - The sales expense ratio improved significantly, while the management expense ratio remained stable [5] Product and Channel Analysis - In 2024, revenue from high-end and mid-range products was 47.64 billion and 2.64 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 2% and 29% [6] - The company is focusing on the 300-800 yuan price range for its main brand and the above 800 yuan market for its premium brand [6] - New channels saw significant growth, with revenue increasing by 184.44% in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [6] Earnings Forecast - The company expects EPS for 2025-2027 to be 2.90, 3.16, and 3.50 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 15, and 14 times [8] - The forecasted revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 3.4%, 6.7%, and 8.7% respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, driven by growth in mid-range products [1][5] - The company is focusing on high-end brand development and consumer cultivation in key markets [8] Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 52.17 billion and 13.41 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 5% and 6% [5] - For Q1 2025, revenue and net profit were 9.59 billion and 1.90 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 3% and 2% [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 83%, with a net margin of 26% [5] - The sales expense ratio improved significantly, while the management expense ratio remained stable [5] Product and Channel Analysis - In 2024, revenue from high-end and mid-range products was 47.64 billion and 2.64 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 2% and 29% [6] - The company is expanding its mid-range brand "Tianhao Chen" and focusing on the 300-800 yuan price segment [6] - New channels saw significant revenue growth, with a 184.44% increase in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [6] Earnings Forecast - The company expects EPS of 2.90, 3.16, and 3.50 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 15, and 14 times [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - Water Jiufang has demonstrated robust growth in its financial performance, achieving over 5.32% revenue growth in 2024 despite challenges in the liquor industry, indicating strong resilience and strategic positioning [1][22]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Water Jiufang's revenue reached 5.217 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.32%, while net profit was 1.341 billion yuan, up 5.69% [1]. - For the first quarter of 2025, revenue and net profit continued to grow, with increases of 2.74% and 2.15% respectively [1]. Sales and Marketing Strategy - The company's growth is driven by enhanced terminal sales capabilities and deepened consumer channel expansion, focusing on both online and offline strategies [2][6]. - In 2024, Water Jiufang signed over 15,000 new offline stores and collaborated with major e-commerce platforms to enhance market presence and consumer accessibility [6]. - The company adopted a "sales-driven" approach, utilizing digital marketing tools to analyze consumer preferences and improve sales efficiency [6]. Brand Development - Water Jiufang has focused on emotional connections with consumers, leveraging cultural marketing to enhance brand recognition and consumer loyalty [7][11]. - The company has engaged in various marketing activities that resonate with cultural themes, such as the "New Year Fortune Wine" branding [7][14]. Sustainable Development - Water Jiufang is committed to long-term sustainability, implementing digital and technological innovations to improve resource efficiency [15]. - The company has set systematic carbon reduction goals, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 60,000 tons from 2024 to 2030 [17]. - Water Jiufang's ESG score improved from 41 to 48, reflecting its commitment to sustainable practices and recognition as an industry leader in sustainability [17].

在宏观经济波动与产业变革的交织影响下，中国酒业当前已进入深度调整期，面临增长放缓、产能过剩以及社会库存积压等诸多困境。 2024年，水井坊实现营业收入52.17亿元，同比增长5.32%；实现净利润13.41亿元，同比增长5.69%。 2025年第一季度，公司业绩延续向好趋势，实现营收9.59亿元，同比增长2.74%；实现归母净利润1.90亿元，同比增长2.15%。 水井坊总经理胡庭洲表示："2024年和2025年一季度，公司上下贯彻'以消费者为导向'的精神，在实现健康、稳定的发展的同时，更为我们高质量落地五年 战略规划打下了坚实的基础。" 如今，"以消费者为导向"的战略指引下，水井坊的势能正在不断积累，托举企业的长期、稳健发展。 "美酒"入人心 中国酒业协会理事长宋书玉曾表示，存量竞争阶段，消费市场进入"饮酒理性、买什么价格酒理性、买什么风味酒理性"三理性时代，酒业核心命题已从"企 业主导"转向"消费者定义价值"。 理性消费回归倒逼行业增长逻辑重塑。传统以商务宴请为核心的增量红利逐步退潮，如何撬动新消费场景成为存量时代的增长关键。 水井坊调研发现，近年来，寿宴、升学宴、升职宴及地方特色文化宴席增长显著，日常情 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry, indicating a positive outlook for the mid-term [1]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing continued pressure, with a focus on quality over speed in growth. The recovery in demand is showing signs of being uneven, leading companies to prioritize prudent growth strategies [12][18]. - The high-end liquor segment is seeing stable pricing control, while the mid-range segment is under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different price tiers [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Demand Recovery and Quality Focus - The liquor sector's revenue for FY 2024 grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 7.2%. For Q1 2025, revenue growth slowed to 2.3% and net profit to 2.6% [12][18]. - Consumer confidence remains weak, particularly in the mid to low-end segments, while high-end banquet consumption is showing signs of recovery from a low base [12][18]. 2. Revenue Trends - Revenue growth is gradually bottoming out, with increasing differentiation among companies. The high-end segment remains relatively stable, while the mid-range segment faces significant challenges [18][27]. - The report highlights that many liquor companies are tightening control over distributors and focusing on core products to drive sales [18][27]. 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector in FY 2024 was 82.93%, a slight increase from the previous year. However, many companies are facing pressure on their gross margins due to pricing and product mix challenges [2][3]. - Sales and management expense ratios have seen slight increases, indicating a cautious approach to spending amid a challenging market environment [2][3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading liquor companies are expected to show resilient growth, supported by effective channel management and digital tracking strategies. Companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are recommended for their solid performance and valuation safety margins [3][12].

财务数据显示，水井坊2024年实现营业收入52.17亿元，同比增长5.32%；实现净利润13.41亿元，同比 增长5.69%。2025年一季度，水井坊实现营业收入9.59亿元，同比增长2.74%；实现净利润1.9亿元，同 比增长2.15%，延续了2024年整体向好的态势。 行业调整周期背景下，白酒行业整体面临库存积压、价格倒挂等多重挑战，水井坊凭什么实现逆势增 长？事实上，在白酒结构性调整的当下，酒企的战略尤为重要，而水井坊持续稳健增长的业绩与其"消 费者为导向"的战略定力不无关联。 4月29日晚间，水井坊（600779.SH）发布2024年年报及2025年一季报，营收、净利润连续双增。 这种"广度+深度"的渠道布局，使终端网络成为抵御市场波动的缓冲带，让水井坊的销量得以稳健增 长。产销量稳健增长的同时，公司海外增速更为可观，2024年，水井坊海外市场同比增长约45%。 消费洞察：从"需求变革"到"文化共鸣"的品牌护城河 当下白酒行业正在变革，行业正加速"分化"，市场竞争将步入白热化阶段，行业呈现年轻化、低度化、 健康化等发展趋势，只有不断创新的企业，才能抢抓发展机遇。 如何创新？关键在于"消费端"。于是，在 ...

Core Insights - Water Well's revenue for 2024 reached 5.217 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.32%, while net profit rose to 1.341 billion yuan, up 5.69% from the previous year [1][2] - In Q1 2025, the company continued its steady growth with revenue of 959 million yuan, a 2.74% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 190 million yuan, up 2.15% [4] Financial Performance - The company's operating income for 2024 was 5.216 billion yuan, compared to 4.953 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 5.32% increase [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.341 billion yuan in 2024, up from 1.269 billion yuan in 2023, a growth of 5.69% [2] - Basic earnings per share for 2024 were 2.7607 yuan, a 5.96% increase from 2.6054 yuan in 2023 [3] - The weighted average return on equity decreased to 28.06% in 2024 from 32.36% in 2023, a decline of 4.30 percentage points [3] Cash Flow and Market Trends - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 744 million yuan, a significant drop of 57.11% from 1.734 billion yuan in 2023 [2][5] - In Q1 2025, the company reported negative operating cash flow of 576 million yuan [5] - The high-end liquor segment accounted for 91.32% of total revenue in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 1.99%, although growth momentum is weakening due to market conditions [5] Strategic Initiatives - Water Well launched a high-end product "First Well" to establish a dual-brand strategy, focusing on both mid-range and high-end markets [6] - The main brand "Water Well" targets the 300 to 800 yuan price range, while "First Well" aims at the premium market above 800 yuan [6] - The company is also developing a mid-range sub-brand "Tianhao Chen" to cater to consumers seeking high cost-performance [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a gradual bottoming out for the liquor sector and a positive outlook for consumer goods [2]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out with significant structural differentiation among companies, while the consumer goods sector is recovering from a downturn [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery, suggesting that new market scenarios and product categories present structural investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Signs of Bottoming Out and Structural Differentiation - The liquor industry experienced a slowdown in Q4 2024, but maintained positive growth in Q1 2025 despite high base effects, with significant differentiation among companies [7]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are outperforming the market, with Moutai's revenue growth at 10.7% and profit growth at 11.6% in Q1 2025 [12][16]. - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in 2024 was 4,417.7 billion, with a growth rate of 7.7%, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 1,533.6 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.8% [12][15]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Recovery and Bright Spots - The consumer goods sector, including dairy and beer, is showing signs of recovery, with revenue and profit growth of 2.4% and 8.4% respectively in Q1 2025 [4][16]. - New channels and product categories are driving growth in snacks and beverages, with companies like Dongpeng and Nongfu showing strong performance [4][16]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer goods sector, with expectations of a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the latter half of the year [4][16]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the liquor sector, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery phase [4][16]. - For consumer goods, it suggests investing in snack and beverage companies that are leveraging new channels and product innovations, highlighting the potential for significant growth [4][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the Chinese consumer staples sector is generally positive, with multiple companies rated as "Outperform" [1]. Core Insights - In April 2025, five out of eight tracked industries maintained positive growth, two experienced negative growth, and one remained flat. The sectors with single-digit growth include dairy, food and beverage, soft drinks, condiments, and frozen foods. The declining sectors are mass and below liquor and sub-high-end and above liquor, while the beer industry remained flat. Compared to the previous month, six industries showed improved growth rates, while two saw a deterioration. Overall demand has not significantly increased or decreased [10][34]. Summary by Category Liquor Industry - **Sub-high-end and above liquor**: In April, revenue was 26.4 billion yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January to April was 167 billion yuan, up 0.3% year-on-year. Inventory levels increased as demand entered a low season [4][14]. - **Mass and below liquor**: Revenue in April was 15 billion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year, marking 15 consecutive months of negative growth. Cumulative revenue for January to April was 75.2 billion yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year [16]. Beer Industry - Revenue in April was 14 billion yuan, flat compared to the same period last year. Cumulative revenue for January to April was 60.6 billion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year. The industry is preparing for the upcoming sales season with low inventory levels [5][19]. Condiments - Revenue in April was 36.3 billion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for January to April at 155.4 billion yuan, growing 1.3% year-on-year. The industry is experiencing weak sales due to external consumption pressures [21]. Dairy Products - Revenue in April was 33.6 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, while cumulative revenue for January to April was 156 billion yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year. The industry showed positive growth due to a low base effect from the previous year [23]. Frozen Foods - Revenue in April was 6.7 billion yuan, up 1.5% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for January to April at 43.1 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year. The industry faces challenges due to lower consumer spending and increased competition [25]. Soft Drinks - Revenue in April was 50 billion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for January to April at 235.6 billion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year. The industry is entering its peak season with intensified competition [27]. Restaurant Sector - Revenue for listed restaurant companies in April was 13.4 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for January to April at 57.1 billion yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year. The sector is seeing recovery, particularly in tea and Western fast food segments [29].