国家电投7月15日发布消息称，自2015年重组成立以来十年，走出了绿色发展、科技引 领、多元融合的全新发展道路，已成为全球最大光伏、新能源、清洁能源发电企业。 据《中国能源报》记者了解，十年间，国家电投资产总额从7738亿增长至1.9万亿，增 长1.46倍；电力装机持续壮大，重组当年即突破1亿千瓦，到2022年底突破2亿千瓦，目前已 达到2.7亿千瓦；清洁能源占比从38.47%升至2019年突破50%，目前已达到73.08%；年度营 收水平翻番，从2015年不到2000亿增至2024年接近4000亿；年度利润水平增加2.55倍，从 2015年不到140亿跃升至2024年接近500亿；年发电量由3808亿千瓦时升至7244亿千瓦时，供 热面积达到5.8亿平方米，惠及人口增长到1500万人；境外业务由24个国家拓展至47个国 家，境外装机从不到30万千瓦扩展到1267万千瓦；深耕区域由"三北"地区进一步拓展到京津 冀、长三角及长江全流域、粤港澳等更多区域，省域公司由18个扩展覆盖全国…… 十年间，国家电投推动光伏、风电、水电、核电、煤电、煤炭、铝业协同创新发展，实 现能源结构的绿色低碳转型，确立了清洁能源全球领军 ...

国家电投集团在近日召开的2025年迎峰度夏能源保供工作部署会上表示，要抓好长协履约兑现，全面提 高电煤保供能力；要加强机组运维检修管理，不断提高设备可靠性；要加强应急体系建设，与气象、交 通、海事等部门加强沟通，不断提升应急保供能力；要加强在建电源项目管理，合理调配资源，确保项 目按期高质量并网，持续提升保供能力。 在目前的电力行业发展中，新能源的主导地位正在持续凸显。 据中央气象台最新预报，未来一周，我国河北南部、黄淮、江汉、江淮、江南北部、陕西关中、四川盆 地等地将出现持续性高温天气，部分地区最高气温可达39℃至41℃。 第一财经记者从国家气候中心获悉，预计2025年夏季，全国大部地区气温较常年同期偏高。江苏大部、 上海、浙江、福建北部、安徽、江西大部、河南南部、湖北、湖南大部、重庆、贵州东北部、四川东部 局部、青海西北部、甘肃西部、新疆、内蒙古西部等地偏高1~2摄氏度。"预计2025年第三季度，全国大 部地区气温较常年同期偏高。" 随着全国多地气温的持续走高，国内用电负荷正在不断攀升。 国家能源局公布的最新数据显示，入夏以来，全国最大电力负荷接连两次创历史新高，最高达到14.67 亿千瓦，比去年同期增长 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.27% on July 14, with 21 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains. The leading sectors were machinery and public utilities, with increases of 1.23% and 1.04% respectively. Conversely, the real estate and media sectors saw declines of 1.29% and 1.24% [2]. Fund Flow Analysis - The net outflow of capital from the two markets was 38.111 billion yuan, with six sectors experiencing net inflows. The machinery sector led with a net inflow of 539 million yuan, followed by public utilities with a net inflow of 336 million yuan [2]. - A total of 25 sectors experienced net capital outflows, with the computer sector leading at 8.506 billion yuan, followed by the non-bank financial sector at 7.029 billion yuan. Other sectors with significant outflows included metals, electronics, and media [2]. Public Utilities Sector Performance - The public utilities sector saw a rise of 1.04%, with a total net inflow of 336 million yuan. Out of 131 stocks in this sector, 109 rose, and six hit the daily limit. There were 19 stocks that declined [3]. - Among the stocks with net inflows, seven had inflows exceeding 50 million yuan, with Jin控电力 leading at 180 million yuan, followed by 华电辽能 and 建投能源 with inflows of 140 million yuan and 86.605 million yuan respectively [3]. - The stocks with the highest net outflows included 南网储能, 国电电力, and 中国广核, with outflows of 61.156 million yuan, 56.419 million yuan, and 48.944 million yuan respectively [3][6]. Top Gainers in Public Utilities - The top gainers in the public utilities sector included: - 晋控电力: +9.87%, net inflow of 179.634 million yuan [4] - 华电辽能: +9.92%, net inflow of 139.675 million yuan [5] - 建投能源: +9.97%, net inflow of 86.605 million yuan [5] Top Losers in Public Utilities - The top losers in the public utilities sector included: - 南网储能: -1.09%, net outflow of 61.156 million yuan [6] - 国电电力: +0.42%, net outflow of 56.419 million yuan [6] - 中国广核: +1.36%, net outflow of 48.944 million yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [4][64]. Core Insights - The report highlights the release of renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights and the implementation plans in Zhejiang and Hainan provinces [3][35]. - The public utility sector index increased by 1.11% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [2][12]. - The report suggests a focus on leading companies in the renewable energy sector due to favorable policies and expected improvements in project performance [8][7]. Market Performance - The public utility sector index's PE (TTM) is 17.43, slightly up from 17.38 the previous week, and down from 18.94 a year ago [23][26]. - The public utility sector index's PB (TTM) is 1.75, up from 1.74 the previous week, and down from 1.98 a year ago [26]. - The top-performing stocks for the week include Huayin Power (+40.89%), YN Energy (+25.1%), and Jingyun Tong (+22.32%) [29][30]. Industry Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have set binding indicators for renewable energy consumption responsibility weights for 2025 [35]. - The report discusses the establishment of zero-carbon parks and the implementation of green electricity direct connection plans in Yunnan province [36][37]. - Hainan's pricing mechanism for new energy projects has been clarified, with competitive pricing ranges established for onshore and offshore wind projects [37][38]. Key Data Tracking - As of July 11, 2025, the price of Shanxi mixed coal (5500) is 624 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.3% [42]. - The trading volume of wind and solar energy certificates totaled 5.4 and 3.65 million respectively during the week [45]. - The national CEA trading volume for the week was 51.5 thousand tons, with an average price of 74.30 CNY/ton [49][51].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The increase in renewable energy consumption responsibility weight is expected to generate an additional demand of approximately 510 billion kilowatt-hours of new energy by 2025 [2][6][19] - The transition of the aluminum electrolysis industry from monitoring to assessment will significantly boost the demand for non-hydropower green certificates, estimated at around 150 million certificates [7][26] - The inclusion of four major energy-consuming industries (steel, cement, polysilicon, and data centers) into monitoring is projected to create a potential demand for approximately 800 million non-hydropower green certificates [8][29] Summary by Sections Renewable Energy Consumption Responsibility Weight - The responsibility weight for renewable energy consumption will significantly increase in 2025, with unfulfilled portions not carried over to the next year. The new policy mandates that the responsibility weight must be completed within the year [6][17] - The "Three North" regions have a higher responsibility weight, with provinces like Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Qinghai set at 30%, while regions like Shanghai and Guangdong remain below 15% [18] Electrolytic Aluminum Green Power Consumption - The green power consumption ratio for the electrolytic aluminum industry will shift from monitoring to assessment in 2025, leading to a significant increase in demand for non-hydropower green certificates [7][26] - The estimated demand for non-hydropower green certificates from the electrolytic aluminum sector is about 150 million certificates due to the new assessment requirements [26] Expansion of Monitoring to Other Industries - The addition of steel, cement, polysilicon, and data centers into the monitoring framework is expected to create a substantial potential demand for green certificates, estimated at around 800 million certificates [8][29] - The projected total demand from these sectors could reach approximately 980 billion kilowatt-hours of new energy, accounting for about 53% of the 2024 new energy volume [34] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand side is expected to expand significantly due to the assessment of the electrolytic aluminum industry and the inclusion of new energy-consuming sectors, while the supply side will see a reduction in the issuance of green certificates due to policy changes [8][34] - The overall market dynamics are anticipated to shift from a surplus supply to a more balanced state, providing long-term support for green certificate prices [8][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights for 2025 have been issued, indicating a focus on increasing the use of green electricity in various industries [5] - The LNG import volume in May 2025 decreased by 26.3% year-on-year, while domestic natural gas consumption showed a slight increase of 2.4% [5] - The report suggests that the power sector is expected to see profit improvement and value reassessment due to previous supply-demand tensions [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of July 11, the utility sector rose by 1.1%, outperforming the broader market, with the electricity sector up by 1.10% and the gas sector up by 1.22% [4][12] - Key companies in the electricity sector showed varied performance, with notable increases for companies like Guikuan Electric and Guangdong Electric A [13] Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Q5500) increased by 8 CNY/ton week-on-week, reaching 624 CNY/ton [4][21] - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased to 5.6 million tons, down 100,000 tons week-on-week [26] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces was reported at 3.55 million tons, a decrease of 95,000 tons/day week-on-week [28] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in Shanghai was reported at 4,460 CNY/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 1.13% but a week-on-week increase of 1.09% [48] - The European TTF spot price increased by 23.0% year-on-year, reaching 11.86 USD/MMBtu [53] - Domestic natural gas apparent consumption in May 2025 was 36.42 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [5] Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued guidelines for renewable energy consumption responsibilities, emphasizing the use of green electricity in high-energy-consuming industries [5] - The largest medium and shallow coalbed methane field in China has surpassed a cumulative gas production of 20 billion cubic meters [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on national coal power leaders such as Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Huadian International, as well as regional leaders in tight supply areas [5] - For natural gas, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are expected to benefit from market conditions [5]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and fluctuated, with the CSI 300 Utilities (secondary industry) index reported at 2645.95 points [1] - The CSI 300 Utilities index has decreased by 0.31% over the past month, increased by 1.48% over the past three months, and has declined by 2.24% year-to-date [1] Industry Classification - The CSI 300 index is categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries, providing a comprehensive analysis tool for investors [1] - The index is based on a sample of 300 stocks from the CSI 300 index, with a base date of December 31, 2004, and a base point of 1000.0 [1] Index Holdings - The top ten weights in the CSI 300 Utilities index are: - Changjiang Electric Power (48.55%) - China Nuclear Power (10.28%) - Three Gorges Energy (8.2%) - Guodian Power (5.62%) - State Power Investment Corporation (4.72%) - Sichuan Investment Energy (4.17%) - Huaneng International (4.15%) - China General Nuclear Power (3.86%) - Zhejiang Energy (2.77%) - Huadian International (2.72%) [1] Market Distribution - The market distribution of the CSI 300 Utilities index shows that the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 95.80%, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 4.20% [2] - In terms of industry composition within the index, hydropower constitutes 59.70%, thermal power 15.26%, nuclear power 14.14%, wind power 8.54%, and gas power 2.36% [2] Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to changes in the CSI 300 index samples [2]

Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2025, the profitability of thermal power companies improved due to a decrease in coal prices from 765 RMB/ton to 621 RMB/ton, leading to an 11% recovery in stock prices since late January [4] - The thermal power sector is expected to see positive factors in electricity volume, price, and costs in 2025, indicating growth potential [4] - Hydropower and nuclear power sectors remain stable with strong cash flows and high dividend yields, while the deepening of domestic electricity reforms is likely to create diverse investment opportunities [4] Thermal Power - The comprehensive electricity price for thermal power is expected to remain stable in 2025, with coal prices trending downward, leading to further profit recovery in the industry [7] - It is recommended to focus on thermal power companies with smaller declines in electricity prices and lower proportions of long-term coal contracts [7] - The implementation of capacity pricing and auxiliary service income is expected to stabilize thermal power profitability [61] Hydropower - High dividend yields attract incremental capital, with the dividend yield of Changjiang Electric Power remaining between 3.2% and 4.4% from 2017 to 2024 [80] - The hydropower sector is expected to see growth due to the commissioning of new projects, with over 25 million kW of hydropower capacity under construction [73] Nuclear Power - The approval of 11 new nuclear units in 2024 marks a significant acceleration in nuclear project approvals, indicating a stable growth trajectory for the sector [82] - By the end of 2024, China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power have substantial capacities under construction, ensuring future growth [86] Renewable Energy - The installation of wind and solar power is expected to maintain high growth rates, with cumulative installed capacity reaching 1.41 billion kW by the end of 2024 [92] - The implementation of the 136 Document is expected to promote the full market entry of renewable energy, leading to a surge in installed capacity [99] Waste Incineration - The waste incineration sector is entering a mature phase, with operating cash flow and free cash flow both increasing by 18% year-on-year in 2024 [119] - Companies in this sector are expanding overseas, establishing a competitive advantage in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [122]

Core Points - The A-share market's three major indices closed mixed, with the CSI 300 Infrastructure Theme Index reporting at 2163.03 points [1] - The CSI 300 Infrastructure Theme Index has increased by 0.51% over the past month, 0.96% over the past three months, and has decreased by 2.43% year-to-date [2] Index Composition - The CSI 300 Infrastructure Theme Index is composed of infrastructure-related listed companies selected from the CSI 300 Index, providing investors with a diversified investment option [2] - The index was established on December 31, 2004, with a base point of 1000.0 [2] - The top ten weighted companies in the index are: - China Yangtze Power (14.9%) - China State Construction Engineering (8.74%) - China Telecom (8.45%) - China Mobile (7.25%) - China Unicom (6.01%) - China Nuclear Power (5.51%) - Three Gorges Energy (4.37%) - China Railway (4.19%) - Guodian Power (3.07%) - China Power Construction (3.03%) [2] Market Distribution - The CSI 300 Infrastructure Theme Index has a market distribution of 96.01% on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 3.99% on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [2] - The industry composition of the index includes: - Utilities: 42.59% - Industrials: 34.52% - Communication Services: 22.90% [2] Sample Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted semi-annually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year [3] - Weight factors are adjusted in accordance with sample changes, typically remaining fixed until the next scheduled adjustment [3] - In the event of special circumstances affecting the CSI 300 Index samples, corresponding adjustments will be made to the index samples [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power industry [11] Core Insights - The performance outlook for thermal power remains positive despite a decline in electricity prices and generation in Q2, driven by a significant decrease in coal prices [2][6] - Hydropower generation faces pressure due to high base effects and reduced rainfall, but some companies may achieve stable growth through optimized reservoir management [7][28] - Nuclear power generation continues to grow, but performance may vary by region due to differing impacts from market electricity prices [7][29] - Renewable energy generation (wind and solar) shows steady growth, but performance disparities exist across regions, influenced by local utilization hours [8][33] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - Key factors affecting thermal power profitability include coal prices, electricity prices, and generation volume. In Q2, coal prices decreased significantly, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price averaging 631.61 yuan/ton, down 216.85 yuan/ton year-on-year [20][21] - The overall electricity price across regions has declined, but northern regions like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang show relatively strong performance [6][17] - Despite a year-on-year decline in thermal power generation hours and prices, the significant drop in coal prices is expected to stabilize thermal power operations, particularly in northern and eastern regions [26][21] Hydropower - Hydropower generation saw a year-on-year decline of 11.02% in April-May due to high base effects and less rainfall [28][31] - Major hydropower companies with better asset quality may still achieve stable growth through effective water management strategies [28] Nuclear Power - Nuclear power generation increased by 9.57% year-on-year in April-May, supported by a larger installed capacity and fewer maintenance days [29][31] - The impact of market electricity price fluctuations varies, with companies like China Nuclear Power being less affected compared to others [29] Renewable Energy - Wind and solar generation increased by 11.87% and 11.68% year-on-year, respectively, but utilization hours have decreased [33][36] - Regional disparities in performance are evident, with eastern and central provinces showing improved wind utilization hours, while coastal provinces like Guangdong and Fujian experienced significant declines [33][39] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huadian International, Huaneng International, and China Power, as well as major hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [9][44] - For renewable energy, companies with balanced national layouts like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power are expected to perform well [9][44]