Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, maintaining its position as the leading dairy company in Asia, with a net profit of 11.539 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [1] - The company reported unexpected growth in both revenue and net profit in the first quarter of 2025, indicating strong operational performance [1] Business Performance - The liquid milk segment implemented various measures to navigate a complex market environment, focusing on quality as its strongest competitive advantage [3] - The company’s flagship products, such as the JinDian brand, have successfully positioned themselves in the organic market, with high-end products like JinDian active lactoferrin organic milk and JinDian Hulunbuir organic milk leading the quality upgrade [3] - The yogurt brand Anmuxi launched the world's first room-temperature active probiotic yogurt, enhancing its market share in the segment [3] - The company has partnered with Tongrentang to develop functional dairy products targeting specific consumer health needs, resulting in significant sales growth for new products [3] Market Trends - The low-temperature business segment has shown resilience, with new products like Changqing grain explosion yogurt and Gonglao colorful yogurt receiving positive market feedback, contributing to significant growth in low-temperature yogurt sales [4] - The JinDian fresh milk product has become a consumer favorite, leading to over 30% year-on-year revenue growth in the high-end low-temperature white milk category [4] - The company has successfully adjusted its inventory structure and product offerings, positioning itself for sustainable growth in the future [4] Overall Industry Position - The company’s liquid milk business generated 75.003 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, maintaining the highest market share in the industry [5] - The company’s overall performance across all product categories has established it as a leader in the industry, with rapid growth in milk powder and continued leadership in the ice cream segment [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) [6] Core Views - Yili Co., Ltd. reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced a net loss of 2.42 billion yuan in Q4 2024, compared to a profit of 1.05 billion yuan in the same period of 2023, indicating significant challenges in the last quarter of the year [1] - In Q1 2025, Yili's revenue increased by 1.35% year-on-year to 33.02 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.71% year-on-year to 4.87 billion yuan [1] Revenue and Profitability Summary - Liquid milk revenue for 2024 was 75.00 billion yuan, down 12.32% year-on-year, primarily due to weak terminal demand and inventory destocking [2] - The milk powder and dairy products segment saw revenue growth of 7.53% in 2024 and 18.65% in Q1 2025, with significant contributions from the premium infant formula segment [2] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 34.10%, with a notable increase in Q1 2025 to 37.82% due to lower raw milk prices [3] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 10.81 billion yuan and 11.65 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a 6.1% and 5.4% reduction from previous estimates [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.70 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 2.05 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17, 16, and 15 times [4]

Core Viewpoint - Yili's 2024 annual report reveals a significant decline in both revenue and profit, marking the first occurrence of a "double decline" since its listing in 1992, with revenue down 8.24% to 115.78 billion yuan and net profit down 18.94% to 8.45 billion yuan [1][3][5] Group 1: Financial Performance - Yili's revenue for 2024 was 115.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.24% from 2023's 125.76 billion yuan [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% from 10.43 billion yuan in 2023 [3] - The company's non-recurring net profit saw a drastic decline of 40.04%, dropping to 6.01 billion yuan [3] - In Q4 2024, Yili reported a loss of 2.42 billion yuan, marking its first quarterly loss in nearly two decades [1][3] Group 2: Sales and Market Dynamics - Yili attributed the revenue decline to reduced product sales and falling prices, particularly in its core liquid milk segment, which accounts for over 60% of its business [5][7] - The liquid milk segment's revenue was 75.00 billion yuan, down 12.32% year-on-year, despite maintaining a market share of approximately 31% [5][7] - The overall liquid milk market in China saw a 3.7% decline in sales, with volumes and average prices dropping by 5.1% and 1.8%, respectively [7] - Yili's cold drink business also faced challenges, with revenue falling 18.4% to 8.72 billion yuan in 2024 [5] Group 3: Impairment and Strategic Concerns - Yili's profit decline was significantly impacted by goodwill impairment from two subsidiaries, totaling 5.23 billion yuan in asset impairment provisions for the year [8][9] - The goodwill from the acquisition of Ausnutria in 2020 was impaired by 3.04 billion yuan due to unmet performance expectations [8] - The company also faced inventory impairments of 1.23 billion yuan and fixed asset impairments of 370 million yuan due to market demand changes and operational inefficiencies [9] Group 4: Industry Challenges - The broader dairy industry is experiencing a downturn, with 24 out of 31 major listed dairy companies reporting revenue declines in 2024 [10] - The second-largest player, Mengniu, reported a 10.1% revenue drop to 88.68 billion yuan, with net profit plummeting 97.8% [10] - The industry is grappling with oversupply and weakened consumer demand, leading to intensified price wars [12][13] Group 5: Future Strategies - In response to industry challenges, Yili is focusing on new product categories and marketing strategies, particularly in the milk powder segment, which saw a 7.53% revenue increase to 29.68 billion yuan in 2024 [14][16] - The growth in the milk powder segment was partly driven by a rise in newborns, but future demand remains uncertain due to changing birth rates [14] - Yili is also exploring expansion into other beverage categories and convenience foods, although the success of these initiatives is yet to be determined [17]

Core Viewpoint - In the context of a weak recovery in the consumer industry, Yili Group (600887.SH) has demonstrated resilience and growth, achieving a revenue of 115.78 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the leading dairy company in Asia, with a net profit of 11.539 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.2% [1][3]. Financial Performance - Yili's overall revenue for 2024 reached 115.78 billion yuan, with a gross margin increase of 131 basis points to 34.03%, indicating enhanced profitability [3]. - The operating cash flow net amount was 21.74 billion yuan, showing an 18.9% year-on-year increase, indicating strong cash flow [3]. - The liquid milk segment generated 75 billion yuan in revenue, maintaining the highest market share in the industry [3]. Business Segments - The milk powder and dairy products segment achieved a record revenue of 29.675 billion yuan, growing by 7.53% year-on-year, with "Golden Crown" infant formula experiencing double-digit growth [3]. - The ice cream business generated 8.721 billion yuan, maintaining the top position in both revenue and market share for 30 consecutive years [4]. - New product revenue accounted for over 15% of total revenue in 2024, with innovative products like "Yogurt with Lemon" and lactose-free options driving growth [4]. Market Outlook - Yili believes the most challenging times for the industry are over, with a healthy recovery in the distribution channels observed by early 2024 [6]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in the consumer goods sector, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption and health [6][7]. - Yili's strategic focus for 2025 includes maintaining a profit margin target of 9% and preparing for potential industry recovery [7]. Strategic Initiatives - Yili is set to launch a new five-year strategic cycle, focusing on a comprehensive production system that includes "Chinese Cattle, Chinese Breeding Models, Chinese Raw Materials, Chinese Equipment, and Chinese Quality" [1][11]. - The company plans to enhance its functional dairy product offerings, targeting the growing demand for health-oriented products in the market [9][10]. - Yili's collaboration with Tongrentang aims to explore functional food products, marking a significant step towards becoming a health food group [10]. Future Growth Potential - The domestic dairy market still has significant growth potential, particularly in lower-tier cities where consumption is on the rise [9]. - Yili aims to capitalize on the underdeveloped functional dairy product market, with plans to increase investment in this area starting in 2025 [9][10]. - The establishment of a national dairy technology innovation center will enhance Yili's capabilities in cheese production and improve the domestic supply chain [10][11].

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, with total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, down 8.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant net loss of 2.42 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 1.05 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [1] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a slight revenue increase of 1.35% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 17.71% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Liquid milk revenue for 2024 was 75.00 billion yuan, down 12.32% year-on-year, primarily due to weak terminal demand and inventory reduction [1] - The milk powder and dairy products segment saw revenue growth of 7.53% in 2024 and 18.65% in Q1 2025, with significant growth in the premium infant formula segment [2] - Ice cream products experienced a revenue decline of 18.41% in 2024 and 5.25% in Q1 2025 [2] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 34.10%, with a quarterly gross margin of 31.00% in Q4 2024 and 37.82% in Q1 2025, indicating an improvement due to lower raw milk prices [2] - Selling expense ratios decreased to 18.99% for 2024, 18.06% for Q4 2024, and 16.92% for Q1 2025, reflecting reduced promotional expenses [2] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.30%, with a significant net loss margin of -9.03% in Q4 2024, while Q1 2025 showed a recovery to 14.76% [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates improved sales performance in Q2 2025 due to a low base effect and expects a reduction in promotional expenses, which may enhance profitability [3] - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 10.81 billion yuan and 11.65 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 13.04 billion yuan [4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.70 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 2.05 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17, 16, and 15 times [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887.SH) [4][6] Core Views - Yili Co., Ltd. reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue of CNY 115.78 billion, down 8.24% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of CNY 8.45 billion, down 18.94% year-on-year [1] - The company is experiencing a recovery in its low-temperature product category and good growth in its milk powder business, with milk powder revenue increasing by 7.53% in 2024 and 18.65% in Q1 2025 [2] - The gross margin improved due to declining raw milk prices, with a gross margin of 34.10% for 2024, up from 32.8% in 2023 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Yili Co., Ltd. achieved total revenue of CNY 115.78 billion, a decrease of 8.24% from the previous year, and a net profit of CNY 8.45 billion, down 18.94% year-on-year [1] - For Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of CNY 26.74 billion, a decline of 7.07% year-on-year, and a net loss of CNY 2.42 billion [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue was CNY 33.02 billion, an increase of 1.35% year-on-year, while net profit was CNY 4.87 billion, down 17.71% year-on-year [1] Product Performance - Liquid milk revenue in 2024 was CNY 75.00 billion, down 12.32% year-on-year, while low-temperature products showed growth [2] - Milk powder and dairy products generated revenues of CNY 29.68 billion in 2024 and CNY 8.81 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting growth rates of 7.53% and 18.65% respectively [2] - Ice cream products saw a revenue decline of 18.41% in 2024 and 5.25% in Q1 2025 [2] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin for 2024 was 34.10%, with a significant improvement in Q1 2025 to 37.82% [3] - Selling expense ratio decreased to 18.99% in 2024, while management expense ratio was 3.86% [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.30%, with a significant loss in Q4 2024 primarily due to goodwill impairment [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been revised down to CNY 10.81 billion and CNY 11.65 billion, respectively [4] - The estimated EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at CNY 1.70, CNY 1.83, and CNY 2.05, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 16, and 15 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Yili is maintaining a steady upward trajectory amidst industry fluctuations, with significant revenue and profit growth reported in recent financial disclosures [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yili's revenue reached 115.78 billion yuan, securing its position as the leading dairy company in Asia; net profit, excluding goodwill impairment, was 11.54 billion yuan, marking a 12.2% year-on-year increase [1]. - For Q1 2025, Yili reported revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, a 1.35% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.63 billion yuan, up 24.19% [2]. Operational Efficiency - From 2020 to 2024, Yili's gross margin improved by 377 basis points, with core operating profit margin rising by 205 basis points, averaging an annual increase of 50 basis points [3]. - In 2024, management expense ratio decreased by 23 basis points to 3.86%, while sales expense ratio for Q1 2025 was 16.9%, down 152 basis points [3]. Market Position - Yili's liquid milk revenue in 2024 was 75.00 billion yuan, maintaining its industry leadership, with high-end low-temperature white milk revenue growing over 30% [5]. - The company achieved first place in the ice cream sector with revenue of 8.72 billion yuan in 2024, marking 30 consecutive years of industry leadership [6]. - Yili's milk powder revenue reached 29.68 billion yuan in 2024, a 7.53% increase, solidifying its position as the top seller in China [8]. Strategic Initiatives - Yili is actively pursuing a "dual strategy" focusing on functional nutrition and deep processing of dairy products, including a strategic partnership with Tongrentang [15]. - The company is investing in deep processing projects to enhance domestic production capabilities and reduce reliance on imports [15]. Innovation and Growth - Yili is expanding its product offerings, including new functional products targeting specific consumer needs, such as lactose-free options and health-focused beverages [12]. - The company is leveraging digital technologies to enhance operational efficiency and accelerate product development cycles [17]. Future Outlook - Yili anticipates continued growth in its infant formula segment and aims for double-digit revenue growth in adult milk powder, with liquid milk expected to stabilize or improve [18]. - The company plans to maintain a profit margin target of 9% for 2025 [19]. Shareholder Returns - Yili has committed to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70%, with a proposed dividend of 7.73 billion yuan for 2024, achieving a historical high of 91.4% [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the recovery of domestic demand, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for investment opportunities in the food and beverage sector, with potential for a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the second half of the year [1] - The major consumption ETF has shown a year-to-date maximum drawdown of 5.57%, indicating some volatility, but it has also outperformed its benchmark with a one-year annualized excess return of 2.18% [2] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the major consumption index is 19.84, which is considered low compared to historical levels, indicating potential undervaluation [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the major consumption index account for 67.16% of the index, highlighting the concentration of investment in a few key players [3] - The performance of individual stocks within the index shows mixed results, with notable increases in stocks like Hai Tian Wei Ye (3.06%) and declines in others like Dong Peng Beverage (-0.89%) [5] - The report indicates that the liquor industry is entering a bottoming phase, with expectations for recovery as companies manage inventory more effectively in the latter half of the year [1]

Core Insights - Yili Group reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan for 2024, with a net profit of 11.539 billion yuan, marking a 12.2% year-on-year growth, maintaining its position as the largest dairy company in Asia [2] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 33.018 billion yuan, a 1.35% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.629 billion yuan, reflecting a 24.19% growth, indicating strong performance despite market challenges [2] Business Segments - Liquid Milk: The liquid milk segment generated 75.003 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, holding the largest market share in the industry, with significant growth in high-end low-temperature products [3] - Ice Cream: The ice cream business achieved 8.721 billion yuan in revenue, maintaining its position as the national leader for 30 consecutive years through product innovation and targeted marketing strategies [3] - Milk Powder and Dairy Products: This segment reached a revenue of 29.675 billion yuan, a 7.53% increase, with strong performance in adult and infant milk powder markets, and leading positions in global sheep milk powder sales [4] - Cheese: The cheese business showed robust growth, with a revenue increase of over 20%, and a retail market share of approximately 19.1% [4] Health and Nutrition Focus - The adult milk powder market has seen a compound annual growth rate of 23.6% over the past three years, with Yili capturing a 24% market share, emphasizing its strong competitive position [6] - Yili is expanding into the health food sector, launching functional products in collaboration with Tongrentang, integrating traditional Chinese medicine with modern dairy technology [7] Innovation and Technology - Yili increased its R&D expenditure by 2.33% in 2024, achieving significant breakthroughs in protein extraction and probiotic technology, enhancing product functionality [8][9] - The company has received 973 patents, reflecting its commitment to innovation and product development, and has been recognized with multiple awards for product innovation [9] Shareholder Value - Yili plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.22 yuan per share, totaling 7.726 billion yuan, with a distribution ratio of 91.4%, marking a record high [10] - The company has a history of substantial dividends, with a total of 50.8 billion yuan distributed since its market entry, showcasing strong cash flow and management confidence [10] Market Outlook - Yili is well-positioned for future growth, benefiting from an improving supply-demand balance in the dairy industry and a focus on health-conscious consumer trends [11] - The company aims to leverage its strong performance and diverse business portfolio to continue leading the dairy sector and expand into the health food market [11]

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