Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10]. Core Views - The company has a strong cash position with a significant reduction in expenses year-on-year [2][6]. - The coal production and sales have shown stability, with a minor decrease in coal prices [6][9]. - The company is expected to face a decline in revenue and net profit in the upcoming years, but the overall asset quality is improving [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 15.033 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.01% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.808 billion yuan, down 14.93% year-on-year [5][9]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.424 billion yuan, a decline of 33.73% year-on-year, with a net profit of 512 million yuan, down 34.35% year-on-year [5][9]. - The company’s cash reserves stood at 16.61 billion yuan at the end of 2024, an increase of 1.401 billion yuan from the previous year [6][9]. Production and Sales Summary - In 2024, the company produced 34.6664 million tons of raw coal, a slight decrease of 0.06% year-on-year, with a total sales volume of 29.9665 million tons, down 0.43% year-on-year [6][9]. - In Q1 2025, the company produced 7.8626 million tons of raw coal, a decrease of 6.94% year-on-year, while the sales volume was 5.2617 million tons, down 24.33% year-on-year [6][9]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The company’s gross profit margin for 2024 was 49.79%, a decrease of 2.02 percentage points year-on-year [6][10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.30 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.85 [9][10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline to 11% in 2025 from 15% in 2024 [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance has declined due to slight decreases in coal prices and volumes, with a focus on potential asset injections and dividend capabilities [1][4] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 15.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.81 billion yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year [1][5] - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit in 2026 and 2027, with forecasts of 2.46 billion yuan and 2.61 billion yuan respectively, indicating a recovery trend [1][7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company’s coal production was 34.67 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, while coal sales were 29.97 million tons, down 0.4% year-on-year [5] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 was 490.6 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1% year-on-year, and in Q1 2025, it dropped to 426.1 yuan per ton, down 16.4% year-on-year [5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.55 yuan per 10 shares, with a dividend payout ratio of 45%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.94 percentage points [6] Asset Injection and Growth Potential - There are expectations for asset injections from the parent company, which has a coal production capacity of nearly 400 million tons per year, compared to the company's current capacity of 34.5 million tons per year [6] - The company has significant room for capacity expansion, which could enhance its growth potential in the future [6] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.36 yuan, 1.47 yuan, and 1.56 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.4, 7.8, and 7.3 [1][7] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 14.7% in 2024 to 10.3% in 2027, indicating a potential decrease in profitability [7]

Summary of Jin Control Coal Industry Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jin Control Coal Industry - **Industry**: Coal Mining Key Financial Highlights - **2024 Investment Income**: Decreased from 648 million to 357 million yuan, primarily due to the liquidation of a financial company and adjustments in resource tax rates in Shanxi Province, which reduced profits by approximately 200 million yuan [2][4] - **2025 Q1 Net Profit**: 511.2 million yuan, down over 30% year-on-year from 780 million yuan, mainly impacted by significant declines in coal prices and reduced production and sales volumes [2][4] - **Sales Volume**: Q1 sales volume decreased by over 30%, with production down by 600,000 tons and sales down by 1.7 million tons year-on-year [2][4] Market Conditions - **Coal Price Trends**: Coal prices have been declining since the end of last year, dropping over 100 yuan to around 665 yuan per ton. The company anticipates a potential recovery in prices in May and June due to seasonal demand and a rebound in the construction industry [2][5][6] - **Long-term Contracts**: The company maintains stable pricing through long-term contracts, with prices at 570 yuan per ton for pit coal and 770 yuan per ton for port coal, which has helped mitigate market volatility [2][7] Operational Insights - **Inventory Levels**: As of early March, inventory at Tashan Port reached over 2 million tons, remaining stable at that level until the end of Q1 [2][9] - **Production Strategy**: The company has not reduced production despite high inventory levels, indicating a stable operational strategy [2][14] Future Outlook - **Dividend Policy**: The company plans to maintain a 45% dividend payout ratio for 2025, despite the downturn in the coal market [3][18] - **Asset Injection Project**: The company is focused on the Panjiakou asset injection project, which is currently in the evaluation and auditing phase [3][17] - **Cost Management**: The company has been actively working on cost control, but further significant reductions may be limited [15] Regulatory Environment - **Safety and Production Regulations**: The regulatory environment in Shanxi has become stricter in 2025, but production efficiency has improved, leading to increased output [20][21] - **Market Dynamics**: There are no current policies mandating increased production to stabilize coal prices, and industry associations have suggested reducing output to prevent further price declines [22] Additional Considerations - **Impact of High-Cost Mines**: Some older state-owned coal mines are experiencing losses due to high extraction costs, while Jin Control Coal Industry, with modernized operations, is not facing similar issues [19] - **Import Policies**: The likelihood of implementing restrictions on low-quality coal imports has decreased as the price advantage of imported coal has diminished [23][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.808 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 15% year-on-year, and 512 million yuan for Q1 2025, down 34% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company's financial expenses turned negative in Q1 2025, with total expenses for 2024 amounting to 1.12 billion yuan, a reduction of 150 million yuan year-on-year [2]. - The company plans to acquire mining rights and related assets from its controlling shareholder, which is expected to increase its production capacity by 29% [2]. - The cash dividend payout ratio has increased by 5 percentage points to 45%, with a high dividend yield of 6.6% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 15.033 billion yuan, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.808 billion yuan, down 14.9% year-on-year [4]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.839 billion yuan, 2.120 billion yuan, and 2.442 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.4X, 9.1X, and 7.9X [3][4]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 47.33 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 39.6% [9]. Production and Sales Summary - In 2024, the company maintained stable production and sales, with coal production of 34.67 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year, and sales of 29.97 million tons, down 0.4% year-on-year [8]. - In Q1 2025, coal sales significantly declined, with production at 7.86 million tons, down 6.9% year-on-year, and sales at 5.26 million tons, down 24.3% year-on-year [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [4][10]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in both coal production and sales, leading to a significant drop in revenue and profit margins. The average selling price of coal decreased by 1.03% year-on-year, while the average sales cost increased by 1.03% [6]. - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.755 CNY per share, resulting in a cash dividend payout ratio of 45%, which translates to a dividend yield of 6.58% based on the closing price of 11.47 CNY on April 25, 2025 [6]. - The report adjusts the revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to downward pressure on coal prices, projecting revenues of 135.95 billion CNY, 138.04 billion CNY, and 141.52 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 150.33 billion CNY, a decrease of 2.01% year-on-year, and a net profit of 28.08 billion CNY, down 14.93% year-on-year. The operating cash flow decreased by 51.46% [6]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 24.24 billion CNY, a decrease of 33.73% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.12 billion CNY, down 34.35% year-on-year [6]. Production and Sales - In 2024, the company produced 34.67 million tons of raw coal, a slight decrease of 0.06% year-on-year, and sold 29.97 million tons of coal, down 0.43% year-on-year. The average selling price was 490.56 CNY per ton [6]. - In Q1 2025, raw coal production was 7.86 million tons, down 6.94% year-on-year, and coal sales were 5.26 million tons, down 24.33% year-on-year [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates of 1.18 CNY, 1.29 CNY, and 1.50 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.7X, 8.9X, and 7.6X [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 18.22 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue at RMB 150.33 billion, down 2.01% year-on-year, and net profit at RMB 28.08 billion, down 14.93% year-on-year, which aligns with expectations [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a significant drop in revenue and net profit, with revenue at RMB 24.24 billion, down 33.73% year-on-year, and net profit at RMB 5.12 billion, down 34.35% year-on-year, primarily due to falling coal prices [1]. - The company is focused on its core coal business and is expected to continue absorbing high-quality assets from the group, having initiated the acquisition of the Panjiayao coal mine, which has a planned annual capacity of 10 million tons [3]. - The company has implemented significant quality improvement and efficiency enhancement measures, resulting in a 0.5% decrease in operating costs and a 6.42 percentage point reduction in the debt-to-asset ratio to 28.89% in 2024 [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, coal business revenue was RMB 147.00 billion, down 1.46% year-on-year, with coal production at 34.67 million tons, down 0.06% year-on-year, and sales volume at 29.97 million tons, down 0.43% year-on-year [2]. - The average selling price of coal was RMB 491 per ton, down 1.48% year-on-year, reflecting stable pricing compared to the market average [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The report projects a downward adjustment in net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to RMB 29.9 billion and RMB 34.5 billion, respectively, with an additional forecast for 2027 at RMB 36.9 billion [5]. - The company is characterized as a rare entity in the industry with both quality profitability and growth potential, supported by a rising dividend payout ratio, which reached 45% in 2024 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Views - The company reported stable performance in coal production and sales, with a slight decline in revenue and profit for 2024 and Q1 2025. The revenue for 2024 was CNY 15.033 billion, down 2.0% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 2.808 billion, down 14.9% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of CNY 0.755 per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 45%, which is an increase of 5 percentage points from 2023, yielding a dividend yield of 6.6% based on the stock price as of April 25, 2025 [2]. - The company is initiating the injection of mining rights assets from its controlling shareholder, which is expected to enhance production capacity significantly [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 3.799 billion, with a net profit of CNY 0.657 billion, showing a significant recovery compared to previous quarters [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of CNY 2.424 billion, down 33.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 0.512 billion, down 34.4% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company’s coal production in 2024 was 34.6664 million tons, with a slight decrease in sales and prices, maintaining a gross margin of 49.78% [2][3]. Dividend Policy - The company has proposed a cash dividend of CNY 12.64 billion for 2024, with a payout ratio of 45% [2]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be CNY 2.170 billion, CNY 2.348 billion, and CNY 2.471 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 1.30, CNY 1.40, and CNY 1.48 [4][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the asset injection, which will enhance its production capacity to 10 million tons per year [4].

煤炭周报 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变 2025 年 04 月 26 日 ➢ 关税扰动下日耗同比降幅扩大，煤价筑底逻辑未变。2025 年 4 月关税冲突 加码以来，受下游需求萎缩影响，沿海八省电厂日耗同比出现下降，3 月底周均 日耗 187.1 万吨，同比增加 3.5 万吨(+1.9%)，而截至 4 月 24 日当周，周均日 耗降至 176.0 万吨，同比减少 2.9 万吨(-1.6%)，在此影响下，煤价持续窄幅震 荡，本周环比延续小幅下滑。但同时，持续低煤价下新疆、内蒙古以露天矿为主 的边际产能产量或出现缩减，发运倒挂叠加大秦线检修，港口库存略有去化。展 望后市，非电需求仍维持缓慢提升，煤价向上动力不足，大秦线检修结束后铁路 发运提升，港口或有累库风险，边际产能成本、进口煤价倒挂以及长协基准价对 港口煤价有支撑，下行压力亦有限，预计短期现货价仍以窄幅震荡为主，长协价 仍表现出低波韧性。 ➢ 焦煤短期窄幅震荡为主，旺季或有阶段性反弹但空间有限。当前煤价下部分 配焦原煤转为动力煤销售更具性价比，焦煤价格已基本见底，叠加近期高炉持续 复产，铁水产量已提升至 2024 年以来最高水平 244.35 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, among others [2][3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that coal consumption has decreased due to tariff disruptions, with daily consumption in coastal provinces dropping from 1.871 million tons in late March to 1.760 million tons by April 24, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% [1][7]. - Despite low coal prices, there is a lack of upward momentum for coal prices, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in the short term [1][8]. - The report suggests that while there may be a temporary rebound in coking coal prices due to seasonal demand, the overall price increase potential remains limited [2][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report notes that the coal price has been experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent prices reported at 657 CNY/ton for Qinhuangdao port, down 8 CNY from the previous week [8]. - The report indicates that the overall coal market is influenced by both weak demand and tariff disruptions, leading to cautious market sentiment [2][8]. Company Performance - Key companies such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal are recommended for their stable performance and strong cash flow [2][11]. - The report provides earnings forecasts for major companies, with China Shenhua expected to have an EPS of 2.95 CNY in 2024, and a PE ratio of 13 [3]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the coal sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a weekly decline of 0.8% in the coal sector compared to gains in major indices [12][14]. - It also notes that the coking coal market is expected to stabilize in the short term due to increased demand for steelmaking [10][11]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders with stable earnings, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with strong cash flow like Jinkong Coal [2][11]. - It emphasizes the defensive value of companies with low debt and high cash flow amidst ongoing tariff disruptions [8].

Core Viewpoint - Jin控煤业 announced a dividend distribution plan for the fiscal year 2024, proposing a cash dividend of 7.55 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.264 billion yuan, which represents 45% of the net profit and a dividend yield of 4.94% based on the average trading price for the year [2] Company Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, Jin控煤业 reported total revenue of 15.033 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.01%, and a net profit of 2.808 billion yuan, down 14.93% year-on-year. The basic earnings per share were 1.68 yuan, with a weighted average return on equity of 15.87% [2] Dividend History - The company has distributed dividends a total of 12 times since its listing. The latest distribution plan shows a decrease in the cash dividend compared to the previous year, where the cash dividend was 7.90 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.322 billion yuan, with a yield of 6.95% [2] Industry Comparison - In the coal industry, 17 companies have announced their 2024 dividend plans. China Shenhua leads with a total cash distribution of 44.903 billion yuan, followed by Shaanxi Coal and Yanzhou Coal with distributions of 11.014 billion yuan and 5.422 billion yuan, respectively [4][5]