Core Viewpoint - The company reported a year-on-year increase in commercial operating revenue and contract sales for November and the first eleven months of the year [1] Group 1: Revenue Performance - In November, the company achieved a total commercial operating revenue of approximately 1.155 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.96% [1] - For the period from January to November, the cumulative commercial operating revenue reached approximately 12.852 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.36% [1] Group 2: Contract Sales - In November, the company recorded a contract sales amount of approximately 1.448 billion yuan, with a sales area of about 200,900 square meters [1] - From January to November, the cumulative contract sales amounted to approximately 17.917 billion yuan, with a total sales area of around 2,351,600 square meters [1]

核心内容 合约销售 30家重点上市房企有7家单月销售环比增长 1、合约销售：30家重点上市房企有7家单月销售环比增长 2、企业拿地：头部央国企核心城市补仓，整体投资保持谨慎 3、企业融资：单月总量环比回升，成本持续走低 4、组织动态：龙湖华发等多家房企精简层级，提升效能 ◎ 文 / CRIC研究中心 0 1 | 企业简称 | 2025年11月 | 車月环比 | 2025年1-11月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 車月金额 | | 累计金额 | 月均销售金额 | | 保利发展 | 179.5 | -15. 0% | 2408. 0 | 218.9 | | 中海地产 | 221. 4 | 18. 6% | 2113.0 | 192. 1 | | 未润量瓶 | 230. 0 | 51. 3% | 1926. 0 | 175. 1 | | 招商蛇口 | 144.5 | -6. 0% | 1705. 2 | 155.0 | | 绿城中国 | 125.0 | 0. 0% | 1329.0 | 120. 8 | | 万科地产 | 94.2 | -34. 4% | 1240. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, particularly focusing on the shopping center industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the consumption industry and shopping center sector in China still have significant growth potential, driven by an expected increase in total consumption and a structural recovery [4][5]. - Leading commercial companies have achieved stable same-store growth and expansion through operational alpha, which may lead to a revaluation of IP (Intellectual Property) values [4][5]. - The report draws comparisons with the U.S. commercial real estate market, highlighting that during five interest rate cut cycles, commercial real estate indices consistently yielded positive returns, significantly outperforming other asset classes [4][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Perspective - The domestic consumption sector remains under pressure, with retail sales growth gradually recovering to +4.3% as of October 2025, while CPI remains low at +0.2% [14][21]. - Compared to the U.S. and Japan during their real estate crises, China's consumption resilience is still relatively strong [14][21]. - Long-term growth potential exists in the consumption sector, particularly in shopping centers, as GDP per capita and retail sales per capita are expected to rise [28][31]. Mid-level Perspective - As of Q3 2025, the total area of centralized commercial space in China reached 661 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth of +4.4% [49]. - The number of new openings has decreased, but the proportion of reopened projects after adjustments has increased, indicating a shift in strategy [53]. - The report notes that 57% of existing projects have been open for over five years, highlighting the importance of effective asset management [53]. Micro Perspective - Leading companies in the sector exhibit significant operational efficiency, with top firms showing a concentration of 19% in opening area as of 2024 [4][5]. - Key companies are expected to see a revaluation of their IP, with potential increases of 39% for China Resources Land and 33% for New World Development [4][5]. - The report indicates that the average operating profit margin for IP is between 55% and 84%, with dividend yields for major companies exceeding 5% [4][5]. U.S. Market Review - The report highlights that during five interest rate cut cycles, the NCREIF commercial real estate price index achieved an average return of 31%, second only to gold [4][5]. - The long-term same-store NOI (Net Operating Income) growth in the U.S. has been stable, correlating positively with GDP growth [4][5]. Catalysts for Growth - The report suggests that the high barriers to entry in commercial operations will enhance the competitive advantage of leading firms, especially as the "residential development supports commercial" model weakens [4][5]. - The introduction of C-REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) is expected to further support the revaluation of commercial assets [4][5].

Market Overview - On December 4, A-shares showed mixed performance with the three major indices fluctuating. The total market turnover was 1.56 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 120 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. More than 1,400 stocks closed higher, with 40 stocks hitting the daily limit up [1]. Sector Performance - The electric motor concept led the gains, with Sanxie Electric rising over 17%. Other sectors such as reducers, state-owned fund holdings, and aviation engines also saw increases. In contrast, sectors like Hainan, tourism and hotels, and dairy products experienced the largest declines [1]. Institutional Ratings - Five stocks received buy ratings from institutions today, including Zhend Medical, New Town Holdings, and Shanxi Fenjiu. The average decline for these stocks was 1.37%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index. The largest declines were seen in Shanxi Fenjiu (3.42%), Zhend Medical (2.50%), and New Town Holdings (1.42%) [1]. Institutional Buying and Selling - In the Dragon and Tiger list, 15 stocks were net bought, with 11 stocks net sold. Nine stocks had net purchases exceeding 10 million yuan, led by Heertai with a net buy of 330 million yuan. The largest net sell was in Aerospace Development, with a net sell of 364 million yuan [4][5]. Northbound Capital Flow - Northbound funds saw net purchases in 10 stocks, with Heertai leading at 188 million yuan. Conversely, nine stocks experienced net selling, with Tongyu Communications facing the highest net sell of 146 million yuan [6][7]. Important Announcements - ST Xianhe announced the removal of risk warnings and a name change to "Xianhe Environmental Protection." Zhongbai Group closed 30 large warehouse stores, expecting a loss of 180 million yuan. China Petroleum signed contracts worth 40 billion yuan to acquire 100% equity in three gas storage companies [8].

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, specifically analyzing trends in home prices and sales dynamics in major cities across the country [1][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Home Price Decline**: - Secondary home prices in major cities fell by **1.7% month-on-month (m-m)** in November, marking a **13.3% year-on-year (y-y)** decline. This is a faster decline compared to **-1.2% in October** and **-1.3% in September** [2][8]. - Over **90% of the tracked cities** experienced faster price declines, with tier 1 cities seeing a drop of **-1.8% m-m** [2][8]. 2. **Sales and Listings**: - Total listings remained stable, with a slight decrease of **0.2% m-m** in approximately **50 sample cities**. New secondary listings softened by **-3% m-m** and **-9% y-y**, with over **65% of cities** recording m-m decreases [3][8]. - Visitation to agent shops increased by **1% m-m** and **8% y-y**, indicating potential market share gains for secondary home sales due to competitive pricing [4][8]. 3. **Future Expectations**: - The expectation is for further home price declines, with housing policy remaining muted in the coming months. A potential subsidy on mortgage interest may be introduced in late **Q2/Q3 2026** if the price decline spreads to tier 2 cities [5][8]. - Sluggish home sales are anticipated to persist into **Q1 2026**, driven by high inventory levels affecting buyer sentiment [5][8]. 4. **Investment Recommendations**: - A defensive and selective approach is advised for **Private-Owned Enterprises (POEs)** due to weak sales impacting earnings and liquidity. Conversely, quality **State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs)** are recommended for accumulation, particularly **CR Land (1109.HK)** and **C&D (1908.HK)**, which are seen as long-term market consolidators with attractive dividend yields [6][8]. Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that **100% of sample cities** recorded m-m decreases in home prices, highlighting a pervasive downturn in the market [15][8]. - The analysis suggests that the current market conditions may lead to a prolonged period of cautious sentiment among home buyers, further exacerbating the challenges faced by the property sector [5][8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property market, emphasizing the ongoing challenges and potential investment strategies.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report emphasizes that real estate is a crucial asset allocation and investment direction for Chinese households, and stabilizing housing prices is significant for facilitating economic circulation. The policy environment is expected to strengthen further, promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector [4][41] - The report highlights the potential for a wave of development in high-quality residential properties due to policy guidance and changes in supply-demand structure. Additionally, the sentiment in the Hong Kong private residential market is gradually recovering, indicating a new round of value reassessment for Hong Kong developers [4] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.6%, the ChiNext Index by 4.5%, and the CSI 300 Index by 1.6%. The real estate sector (Shenwan) increased by 0.7% during the week [4][7] - The top five stocks in terms of growth were Wantong Development (+19.3%), *ST Nan Zhi (+12.6%), Xinhua Group (+10.5%), Zhangjiang Hi-Tech (+9.7%), and Tianbao Infrastructure (+9.2%). The bottom five were Huaxia Happiness (-14.9%), Jingji Zhino (-14.8%), Vanke A (-11.2%), Hefei Urban Construction (-9.8%), and Jindi Group (-6.2%) [4][7] New Housing Transactions - In the week of November 22-28, new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 2.06 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 9.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 51.1% [11] - For November (up to the week of November 28), new housing transactions in 42 key cities totaled 7.24 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 0.8% but a year-on-year decrease of 43.1% [15] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week of November 22-28, second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 202,000 square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 0.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% [26] - For November (up to the week of November 28), second-hand housing transactions in 21 key cities totaled 8 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 27.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.2% [31] Industry News - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has introduced a draft for the pilot program of commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) to promote high-quality development in the REITs market and support the construction of a new model for real estate development [2][41] - Various local governments are implementing policies to enhance housing affordability and stimulate the real estate market, such as increasing the loan limits for purchasing high-quality residential properties in cities like Xuzhou and Changzhou [41] Company Announcements - Notable financing activities include China Merchants Shekou issuing bonds up to 5.04 billion yuan with a fixed interest rate of 1.77% for three years, and Poly Developments issuing medium-term notes with varying maturities and interest rates [44][45]

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** sector, specifically the performance of major property developers in November 2025 and the outlook for early 2026 [1][2][4]. Key Points Sales Performance - **Contracted Sales Decline**: Major developers recorded an average decline of **42% year-on-year (y-y)** in contracted sales for November 2025, with a year-to-date (YTD) decline of **23% y-y** [1][2]. - **Top Developers' Performance**: The top 50 and top 100 developers saw declines of **35%** and **36% y-y**, respectively, with YTD sales declines of **18%** and **19%** [2]. - **Divergence in Performance**: State-owned enterprises (SOEs) outperformed private-owned enterprises (POEs), with SOEs like Jinmao, CR Land, Poly, and COLI showing milder declines of **0%**, **-11%**, **-25%**, and **-26%** y-y, while some POEs like Agile and Midea RE experienced declines exceeding **55%** y-y [3]. Market Sentiment and Outlook - **Weak Buyer Sentiment**: The market sentiment remains weak, exacerbated by high listing volumes and lower secondary listing prices. A survey indicated that sentiment in tier-1 cities has worsened significantly [4]. - **Policy Outlook**: The expectation is that meaningful housing policy changes will remain muted in the coming months, with potential mortgage interest subsidies possibly rolling out in late Q2 or Q3 2026 if home price declines spread to tier-2 cities [4]. Investment Recommendations - **Defensive Strategy**: Analysts recommend a defensive and selective investment approach, suggesting accumulation of quality SOEs with potential alpha opportunities for 2026. Specific recommendations include CR Land (1109.HK) and C&D (1908.HK) for their attractive dividend yields, and Seazen (601155.SS) for its robust mall rental and private REIT divestment [5]. Additional Insights - **Sales Data**: The sales data indicates a significant contraction in the property market, with the median sales decline for SOEs at **-26%** and for POEs at **-45%** [9]. - **Future Risks**: Risks to the upside include stronger-than-expected contract sales and faster project launches, while downside risks involve slower sales growth and margin compression [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China property market, highlighting the significant challenges faced by developers and the cautious investment strategies recommended by analysts.

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings has launched the "Wuyue Plaza Holding Real Estate Asset-Backed Special Plan," marking the first issuance of consumer-type holding real estate ABS in China and the first by a private A-share listed company, setting a dual record in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Issuance Details - The issuance scale of the ABS is 616 million yuan, with a corresponding debt portion of 410 million yuan, and a product term of approximately 25 years [1][4]. - The underlying asset for this ABS is the Wuyue Plaza located in the core area of the Qingpu District, which serves over 400,000 residents from more than 160 surrounding communities [2]. Group 2: Market Impact and Significance - This issuance is expected to enhance New City Holdings' asset liquidity and optimize its capital structure, providing a new financing pathway for the commercial real estate sector [2][3]. - The ABS includes a continuous fundraising mechanism, allowing for the ongoing acquisition of quality assets, thus promoting sustainable development of the product [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - As of Q3 2025, New City Holdings has established 205 comprehensive projects across 141 cities, with 176 operational and a high occupancy rate of 97.7% [2]. - The total foot traffic at Wuyue Plaza reached 950 million, with total sales exceeding 51.5 billion yuan, both showing a year-on-year increase of 16% [3]. Group 4: Broader Financing Strategy - The issuance is part of a broader direct financing plan approved in May 2025, allowing for up to 20 billion yuan in various financing instruments, including ABS and REITs [5][6]. - New City Holdings has engaged in multiple financing activities this year to bolster liquidity, including issuing bonds and restarting dollar bond issuance to manage upcoming debt obligations [6].

Industry Investment Rating - The steel industry maintains an "overweight" rating [49] - The real estate industry maintains an "overweight" rating [57] - The insurance industry maintains an "overweight" rating [86] Core Viewpoints - Global risk preferences have significantly declined, leading to asset price fluctuations and panic selling. However, China's capital market is expected to recover in valuation and experience significant development, with A/H shares, industrial commodities recommended for tactical overweight, and US dollars for tactical underweight [20][21] - The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December has risen significantly, and the market is highly concerned about the Fed's monetary policy. The Chinese economy is expected to gradually stabilize, and the policies of various industries will promote the improvement of industry fundamentals [8][15] - The technology theme is expected to return to the main line, and themes such as commercial space, AI applications, robots, and domestic demand consumption are worthy of attention [29] Summary by Directory Macro Reports - **Global Asset Performance**: From November 24 - 28, 2025, major global stock markets rose, commodities generally increased, the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged, the US dollar index fell, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar [5] - **US Economy**: Manufacturing new orders increased, housing price growth slowed, and consumer growth also slowed [6] - **European Economy**: Business confidence in the eurozone stabilized [7] - **Overseas Policies**: The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December rose to 80%, the ECB President said the current interest rate was appropriate, the UK's budget faced a "technical leak", Japan's bond - issuing plan tilted towards short - term bonds, and the BOJ's December interest rate hike expectation did not increase [8][9][10] - **China's Economy**: Consumption, investment, and production showed structural differentiation. The manufacturing PMI marginally rebounded due to improved external demand, and the construction industry's business activity index also increased marginally, but the service industry's declined [13][15] Asset Allocation Report - **A/H Shares**: Tactical overweight is maintained due to multiple factors supporting China's equity performance, such as the release of micro - trading risks and the approaching policy window [20] - **Treasury Bonds**: Tactical standard allocation is maintained because of the imbalance between financing demand and credit supply, and the central bank may take action to maintain market liquidity [20] - **Industrial Commodities**: Tactical overweight is maintained as industrial metals like copper may face supply - demand imbalances, with strong demand and increasing development costs [21] - **US Dollars**: Tactical underweight is maintained as the Fed's policy adjustment and the marginal convergence of the US economy reduce the dollar's allocation value [21] Strategy Reports - **Asset Overview**: Global risk preferences recovered, stocks and commodities rose, silver and copper prices hit record highs, and the dollar index weakened. A - shares and other major global stock markets generally rebounded, and the bond market showed a pattern of a bearish steepening in China and a bullish steepening in the US [23][24][25] - **Theme Analysis**: The trading heat of hot themes was stable, the technology theme returned, and funds flowed into AI and communication. Themes such as commercial space, AI applications, robots, and domestic demand consumption are recommended [29] Overseas Strategy Reports - **Fund Flows**: North - bound funds may have a small net inflow, and south - bound funds' inflow into e - commerce and retail reached a new high since October. Overseas funds showed different flow trends in different markets [36][37] - **Policy Tracking**: Domestic policies covered macro, industrial, and local aspects, and overseas policies included diplomatic, economic, and interest - rate - related policies [39][40][43] Industry Reports - **Steel**: Demand is expected to stabilize, supply is expected to contract, and the industry's fundamentals are expected to gradually recover. Companies with product and cost advantages are recommended [45][48][49] - **Utilities**: The proportion of long - term contract electricity in 2026 is expected to decrease, electricity prices may have limited declines, and the industry's valuation is expected to improve [52] - **Real Estate**: The transaction volume in large and medium - sized cities rebounded, and the spot - housing sales are beneficial to the industry's healthy development [57][58] - **Food and Beverage**: CPI data has boosted the sector's expectations. Different sub - sectors such as liquor, beverages, and snacks have corresponding investment recommendations [62] - **Robotics**: Overseas and domestic companies have made progress in the field of humanoid robots, and investment in this field is active. Core component suppliers and整机 manufacturers are recommended [67][68][69] - **Machinery**: The weekly operating load rate of industrial gases increased, and important projects such as the second - phase of the Huanneng Jintan salt - cavern compressed - air energy - storage project advanced. Related companies are recommended [73][74][75] - **Insurance**: In October 2025, the growth rate of life and property insurance premiums declined marginally. The industry is optimistic about the growth of the life insurance's new business value (NBV) in the 2026 opening season and the continuous improvement of the property insurance's combined ratio (COR) [83][84][85] - **Agriculture**: Corn prices rose, the pet food market showed different trends at home and abroad, and the pig - breeding industry needs to pay attention to the epidemic and demand. Related companies in different sub - sectors are recommended [88][89][90] - **Textile and Apparel**: The US clothing retail industry showed growth, and the overseas K - shaped consumption trend continued. Export - manufacturing and brand - end companies are recommended [93][94][95]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, forecasting EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be RMB 0.37, RMB 0.51, and RMB 0.61 respectively, with a target price set at RMB 18.34 based on a moderate PB premium of 0.65x for 2025 [3][10]. Core Insights - The company has successfully launched the first consumer holding real estate ABS in China, marking a significant milestone in innovative financing. This ABS, managed by Sinolink Securities, has an issuance size of RMB 616 million and a term of approximately 25 years [3][10]. - The company reported a total commercial operation revenue of approximately RMB 10.51 billion for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.82% and maintaining a high occupancy rate of 97.7% [3][10]. - The company has expanded its presence to 143 cities with 205 Wuyue Plazas, achieving a total foot traffic of 950 million, which is a 16.0% increase year-on-year, and a membership base of 49.17 million [3][10]. - The company has made significant strides in both domestic and foreign financing, successfully issuing USD 300 million in senior unsecured bonds and USD 160 million in senior secured notes, alongside medium-term notes in the domestic market [3][10]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 119.17 billion, with a decline expected in subsequent years, reaching RMB 58.48 billion in 2025, a decrease of 34.3% [2][4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 737 million in 2023, with a gradual increase to RMB 1.38 billion by 2027 [2][4]. - The company’s net asset return is expected to improve from 1.2% in 2023 to 2.0% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][4].