Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points (BP) to a range of 4.00%-4.25% aligns with market expectations, indicating potential for two more rate cuts by 2025, which enhances market risk appetite and may lead to short-term pressure on gold prices [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates is expected to ease recession fears in the U.S., as recent economic data shows improvement, including better-than-expected retail sales and a decrease in initial jobless claims [2] - The Fed's updated dot plot suggests two additional rate cuts by 2025, totaling approximately 50 BP, which could further influence market dynamics [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - The recent rate cut is likely to result in short-term fluctuations in gold prices, as market participants take profits amid rising risk appetite [2][3] - Despite short-term pressures, long-term prospects for gold remain positive due to ongoing U.S. government debt risks and challenges to the dollar's status, suggesting potential for sustained performance in the gold market [2] Group 3: Industrial Metals - The industrial metals sector is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, with rising processing rates for copper and aluminum as the market enters a traditional peak season [3] - Increased domestic policy flexibility and a favorable macroeconomic environment, coupled with supply-side disruptions, are likely to strengthen the industrial metals market, presenting a good opportunity for investment [3]

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2025年09月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 01 黄金：FOMC会议降息落地 白银：突破上涨 07 锡：矛盾并不突出，触及区间下沿或有反弹 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2 02 03 铜：国内补库预期以及美联储未来持续降息预期等，将支撑价格 铝：未能如期上破21000关口，低位伺机等买点 氧化铝：2900关口上下分歧较大 04 铸造铝合金：需求温和复苏，价格承压 05 锌：内外矛盾凸显，关注出口窗口打开机会 06 ...

Core Viewpoint - Weibang Sports Technology Group Co., Ltd. has initiated the listing guidance process with Guotai Junan Securities as the advisory institution, indicating a move towards an initial public offering (IPO) [1] Group 1: Company Information - The controlling shareholder of Weibang Sports is Zhejiang Weibang Holdings Co., Ltd., which holds 58.48% of the shares [1] - The company submitted its application for the initial public offering and listing on the main board to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) on May 18, 2023 [1] Group 2: IPO Process - The application for the IPO was terminated on February 14, 2025, due to the issuer's strategic considerations regarding future development, leading to the withdrawal of the application submitted to the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of coal and coke still provide support, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly. The pre - holiday restocking of raw materials has begun, and the current spot demand support is relatively strong. From a fundamental perspective, both supply and demand are marginally strong, and strong domestic expectations at the macro - level also provide support. Therefore, short - term valuations are likely to continue to fluctuate strongly [3][4][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes - **Supply**: FW raw coal is 872.52 (+11.45), FW clean coal is 450.57 (+8.12); independent coking plants have a daily average of 66.72 (-0.04), and steel mills and coking enterprises have a daily average of 46.65 (+0.05) [7] - **Demand**: The hot metal output is 241.02 (+0.47) [7] - **Inventory**: MS total coal inventory increases by 39.6, mine raw coal decreases by 3.2, mine clean coal decreases by 21.7, independent coking increases by 56.9, steel mill coking decreases by 3.4, port increases by 11.1, and FW port increases by 3.7; MS total coke inventory increases by 8.9, steel mills increase by 11.4, independent coking decreases by 1.4, and ports decrease by 1.0 [7] - **Profit**: The profit of commercial coal is 421 (+17), and the average profit of coking enterprises is - 17 (-52) [7] - **Warehouse Receipt**: The warehouse receipt of Meng 5 in Tangshan is 1140, and the warehouse receipt of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke is 1568 [7] 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply - **Weekly**: Data on 523 sample mine开工率, FW raw coal output, 523 sample mine daily average clean coal output, and FW clean coal output are presented in graphs [10][12][14] - **Monthly**: Data on coking bituminous coal output and coking clean coal output are presented in graphs [16] - **Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance**: Data on the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports and the total customs clearance volume of the three ports are presented in graphs [18][20][21] 3.2.2 Inventory - **Pit - mouth**: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample coal mines decreased by 13.81 tons week - on - week to 185.96 tons, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 10.27 tons week - on - week to 114.96 tons [28] - **Port**: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 282.19 tons, an increase of 11.08 tons week - on - week [30] - **Coking Plant**: Data on coking coal inventory and available days of independent coking enterprises, and regional and capacity - segmented inventory and available days are presented in graphs [33][35][37] - **Steel Mill**: Data on coking coal inventory and available days of 247 steel enterprises and their segmented regional data are presented in graphs [38] 3.3 Coke Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - **Capacity Utilization**: Data on the capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises are presented in graphs [41][43] - **Output**: Data on the daily average output of independent coking plants and steel enterprises are presented in graphs [45][47] 3.3.2 Inventory - **Coking Plant**: Data on the inventory of independent coking enterprises are presented in graphs [49] - **Steel Mill**: Data on the inventory, average available days, regional absolute inventory, and regional available days of steel mills are presented in graphs [50][52][53] - **Full - sample Summary**: Data on the total coke inventory and inventory of the full - sample are presented in graphs [55] 3.3.3 Demand - Data on the supply - demand gap between coke, daily average supply, daily average demand, and the daily average output of hot metal of 247 steel enterprises are presented in graphs [57] 3.3.4 Profit - Data on the profit of coke futures contracts, average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, and the price of metallurgical coke are presented in graphs [61][62] 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices 3.4.1 Coking Coal Futures - Futures quotes of coking coal 2601 and coking coal 2605, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are provided [65] 3.4.2 Coke Futures - Futures quotes of coke 2601 and coke 2605, including closing price, change, trading volume, and open interest, are provided [67] 3.4.3 Coal and Coke Monthly Spread - Data on the monthly spread of JM2601 - JM2605 and J2601 - J2605 are presented in graphs [70] 3.4.4 Coal and Coke Spot - Spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are presented in graphs [73] 3.4.5 Coal and Coke Basis - The basis has weakened as the futures price has strengthened with expectations [76]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic copper prices are expected to be supported by factors such as downstream pre - holiday restocking expectations, tight raw material supply affecting refined copper production, the Fed's future continuous interest rate cut expectations, and China's favorable policies. The price range is expected to be between 79,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton, and the domestic copper social inventory is expected to decline marginally [3][7]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the dot - plot shows two more rate cuts are expected this year and one next year, which will support market risk sentiment [7]. - In terms of trading strategies, new long positions can look for opportunities to enter, hold term positive spreads, and pay attention to opportunities to go long on volatility [7]. 3. Section Summaries Trading End - Volatility: The volatility of Shanghai copper, international copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper has rebounded. COMEX copper price volatility is around 9%, and Shanghai copper volatility has rebounded to around 8.2% [11]. - Term Spread: The term structure of Shanghai copper has strengthened, and the LME copper spot discount has narrowed. The spread between Shanghai copper 10 - 11 contracts has risen from par on September 12 to a premium of 60 yuan/ton on September 19 [13][15]. - Position: The positions of Shanghai copper, international copper, and LME copper have decreased, while the position of COMEX copper has increased. Shanghai copper's position has decreased by 4.35 lots to 479,000 lots [16]. - Capital and Industry Position: The net long position of CFTC non - commercial has increased from 27,200 lots on September 9 to 30,300 lots on September 16 [22]. - Spot Premium: The domestic copper spot premium has weakened, and the bonded - area copper premium has rebounded. The domestic copper spot premium has dropped from a premium of 85 yuan/ton on September 12 to 70 yuan/ton on September 19 [26]. - Inventory: The global total copper inventory has increased, with domestic social inventory and COMEX inventory both increasing. The global total inventory has increased from 644,800 tons on September 11 to 652,400 tons on September 18 [31]. - Position - to - Inventory Ratio: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio has rebounded, and the Shanghai copper position - to - inventory ratio is at a historically high level [32]. Supply End - Copper Concentrate: Imports have increased year - on - year, and processing fees have weakened marginally. In July 2025, China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates were 2.5601 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.45% [35]. - Recycled Copper: Imports have decreased year - on - year, and domestic production has increased slightly. In July, recycled copper imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and domestic recycled copper production was 99,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.81% [38]. - Blister Copper: Imports have increased, and processing fees are at a low level. In July, blister copper imports were 84,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.08% [49]. - Refined Copper: Production has increased more than expected, imports have increased, and the loss of copper spot imports has narrowed. In August, the production was 1.1715 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.59% [53]. Demand End - Operating Rate: The operating rate of copper product enterprises in August weakened month - on - month. The operating rate of copper tubes in August was at a historically low level, and the operating rate of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a moderately low level [56]. - Profit: The copper rod processing fee is at a historically low level, and the copper tube processing fee has rebounded. As of September 19, the processing fee for copper rods in the power industry in East China was 560 yuan/ton, lower than 570 yuan/ton on September 12 [61]. - Raw Material Inventory: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In August, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a historically high level, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a historically low level [62]. - Finished Product Inventory: The finished product inventory of copper rods has rebounded, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased. In August, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a moderately high level, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a moderately low level [64]. Consumption End - Apparent Consumption: Apparent consumption is good, and power grid investment is an important support. From January to July, the cumulative consumption was 9.2236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.06%, and the apparent consumption was 9.2812 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.28% [69]. - Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle: The growth rate of air - conditioner production has slightly decreased, and the production of new - energy vehicles is at a historically high level. In July, the domestic air - conditioner production was 16.115 million units, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.01%, and in August, the production of new - energy vehicles was 1.391 million units, a year - on - year increase of 27.38% [72].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" investment rating for the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector has experienced a recent adjustment, with the Shenwan Brokerage II Index declining by 3.51%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.07 percentage points. However, the sector is expected to maintain double-digit year-on-year profit growth in Q3 2025, supported by ongoing capital inflows [3][6]. - The insurance sector has seen a decline of 4.76% in the Shenwan Insurance II Index, with significant movements such as Ping An Life increasing its stake in China Pacific Insurance to over 10%. This reflects a strong positive outlook from insurance capital towards the sector [3][8]. - The report highlights the upcoming National New Conference on September 22, which is anticipated to bring new policies that could positively impact market sentiment [3][15]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4501.92 with a slight decline of 0.44%. The non-bank index reported a drop of 3.66%, with the brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors showing declines of 3.51%, 4.76%, and 0.50% respectively [6][8]. Non-Bank Industry Key Data - As of September 19, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield was 1.88%, with a slight increase of 0.65 basis points. The average daily stock trading volume reached 25,181.36 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.23% week-on-week [11][14]. Non-Bank Industry News and Key Announcements - The report notes that the property insurance sector achieved a record high in underwriting profits in the first half of 2025, with premium growth of 4.2% [16]. - Ping An Life's recent acquisition of shares in China Pacific Insurance is seen as a strong signal of confidence in the insurance sector's investment value [19]. - China Pacific Insurance announced the completion of a convertible bond issuance, which is expected to enhance its capital position [20]. Investment Recommendations - For brokerages, the report recommends focusing on leading firms benefiting from improved competitive dynamics, such as GF Securities, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Securities. It also suggests considering firms with strong international business capabilities like China Galaxy and CICC [3][8]. - In the insurance sector, the report recommends China Life, China Pacific, New China Life, and Ping An, among others, due to their favorable valuation and growth prospects [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan has launched an internal testing phase for its self-developed stablecoin, focusing on the "Healthy China Phase IV" user group, offering a 2% annual interest rate and a 1:1 exchange with digital RMB, aiming to integrate digital finance with the health industry [1][3][5] Group 1: Stablecoin Features - The stablecoin is designed to empower the health industry, specifically targeting users involved in the "Healthy China Phase IV" initiative, including healthcare professionals and employees of health-related enterprises [3][4] - Users participating in the internal test can earn a 2% annual interest rate, with returns calculated daily and distributed monthly, ensuring stable and compliant investment returns [3][4] - The stablecoin allows for real-time, fee-free conversion to digital RMB, enhancing liquidity and usability while maintaining the legal currency attributes of digital RMB [3][4] Group 2: Benefits for Users - The stablecoin addresses financial management challenges in the health industry, enabling healthcare professionals to convert idle funds into stablecoins for investment while allowing easy conversion back to digital RMB for operational expenses [4] - Employees in the health sector can receive salaries and subsidies through stablecoins, providing flexibility compared to traditional investment methods [4] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The internal testing of the stablecoin is a crucial step in Guotai Junan's strategy to empower the health industry through digital finance, with plans for broader functionalities post-testing [4][5] - The stablecoin is expected to serve as a vital link between digital finance and the health industry, supporting the implementation of the "Healthy China" strategy and reinforcing Guotai Junan's leadership in the digital finance ecosystem [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yuanchuang Technology Co., Ltd. has been approved for IPO by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, marking it as the 51st company to pass the review this year [1] - Yuanchuang Technology specializes in the research, production, and sales of rubber track products, including agricultural and engineering machinery tracks [2] - The company plans to issue up to 19,600,000 shares, raising approximately 48.51 million yuan for projects including production base construction and working capital [2] Group 2 - The main questions raised during the listing committee meeting focused on market competition, order status, pricing mechanisms, and the impact of these factors on the company's revenue and profitability for 2025 [3][4] - The company is required to provide detailed explanations regarding the competitive landscape of the rubber track market and its implications for future earnings [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan suggests that Hong Kong dividend assets are currently more cost-effective compared to A-share dividend assets, making them more attractive for allocation as the year ends and begins [1] Short-term Outlook - In the short term, Hong Kong dividend assets are expected to outperform in relative returns amid market volatility, with a notable advantage in dividend yield and valuation compared to A-shares [1] - There is an anticipated increase in allocation demand for dividend asset sectors from insurance capital as the fourth quarter approaches, alongside a loosening of overseas liquidity [1] Long-term Perspective - The report highlights that the strengthening of dividend regulation policies, combined with a low interest rate environment, will drive long-term capital into Hong Kong dividend assets [1] - In a prolonged low interest rate era, long-term funds are likely to continue increasing their allocation to more certain Hong Kong dividend assets [1] - The deepening trend of company dividends, the demand for asset allocation in a low interest rate environment, and policy guidance for long-term capital entry into the market suggest that Hong Kong dividend assets have a long-term allocation value compared to A-shares [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dividend assets are characterized by stable performance and sustainable cash flow, providing investors with consistent high dividend returns, making them attractive investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Dividend Asset Characteristics - Dividend assets offer higher dividend yield levels, sustainable cash flow, robust financial structures, and maintenance capital expenditures [1] - The average cash dividend payout ratio for Hong Kong stocks from 2017 to 2024 is 44%, significantly higher than the 36% for A-shares [1] - The dividend yield of the Hang Seng Composite Index is 2.9%, compared to 1.9% for the Wind All A-Share Index [1] Group 2: Valuation and Sector Distribution - The valuation levels of dividend assets in Hong Kong are relatively lower, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index PE and PB at 7.2 times and 0.6 times, respectively, compared to 7.9 times and 0.8 times for the CSI Dividend Total Return Index [1] - The proportion of high dividend assets in Hong Kong is higher, with a more diverse industry distribution, while A-shares predominantly feature high dividend assets in sectors like banking and petrochemicals [1]