记者丨曾静娇 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 编辑丨刘雪莹 12月17日，亚太主要股指多数上涨，日经225指数小幅收红，韩国综合指数涨超1%；A股、港股表现强 劲，富时中国A50快速拉升；国际贵金属全线飘红，白银再创新高；国内贵金属期货持续走高，铂、钯 主力合约涨停。 | 日经225 | 韩国综合 | 新加坡海峡 | | --- | --- | --- | | 49512.28 | 4056.41 | 4569.69 | | +128.99 +0.26% | +57.28 +1.43% | -10.04 -0.22% | | 澳洲标普200 | 印度 | MSCI台湾 | | 8585.20 | 84483.12 | 1074.89 | | +21.60 +0.25% | -196.74 -0.23% | -1.19 -0.11% | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 恒生指数 | | 3870.28 | 13224.51 | 25410.48 | | +45.47 +1.19% +309.85 +2.40% +175.07 +0.69% | | | 具体来看，A股三大 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a positive outlook for the securities industry, driven by policy support and market reforms aimed at enhancing capital market functions [1][2] - The National Securities Leading Index (399437) has shown a strong increase of 2.46%, with key stocks like Huatai Securities (601688) rising by 6.77% and GF Securities (000776) by 3.49%, indicating robust market performance [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for continuous deepening of capital market reforms, positioning brokerages as essential service providers for direct financing and wealth management [1] Group 2 - According to CITIC Securities research, the securities sector is expected to enter a new growth cycle in 2025, with performance driven by favorable policies and market conditions [2] - The report identifies three core positive drivers: service to new productive forces, long-term capital inflow, and internationalization opportunities for brokerages, which are not yet fully priced into the market [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Leading Index account for 79.05% of the index, indicating a concentrated market structure [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a significant rise in securities stocks, with Huatai Securities increasing nearly 7% and GF Securities rising over 3% [1] - Other securities firms also experienced gains, including Dongfang Securities, Industrial Securities, Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, and Changjiang Securities, all rising over 2% [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities (stock code: 601688) rose by 6.90%, with a total market capitalization of 215.4 billion and a year-to-date increase of 38.93% [2] - GF Securities (stock code: 000776) increased by 3.40%, with a market cap of 166.6 billion and a year-to-date rise of 38.88% [2] - Dongfang Securities (stock code: 600958) saw a rise of 2.89%, with a market cap of 93.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 6.64% [2] - Industrial Securities (stock code: 601377) increased by 2.93%, with a market cap of 63.6 billion and a year-to-date rise of 19.48% [2] - Guotai Junan (stock code: 601211) rose by 2.56%, with a market cap of 366.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 13.98% [2] - CITIC Securities (stock code: 601066) saw a rise of 2.24%, with a market cap of 212.8 billion and a year-to-date increase of 7.15% [2] - Changjiang Securities (stock code: 000783) increased by 2.37%, with a market cap of 45.5 billion and a year-to-date rise of 23.26% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the brokerage sector is experiencing a strong rebound, with leading brokerages like Huatai Securities rising over 9% and the brokerage ETF (512000) seeing significant trading volume and price increases [1][5]. - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for continuous deepening of capital market reforms, positioning brokerages as key service providers for direct financing and important gatekeepers of the capital market [1][5]. - Analysts suggest that the fundamentals of brokerages are expected to improve under a backdrop of moderately loose liquidity and deepening reforms, indicating potential for valuation recovery in the sector [1][5]. Group 2 - Xiangcai Securities noted that the A-share market's trading volume and margin financing balances remain high, which will contribute to the ongoing recovery of brokerage performance [6]. - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio of the brokerage sector has fallen to a nearly ten-year low, suggesting a high allocation value and safety margin for investors [6]. - The brokerage ETF (512000) has a fund size exceeding 39.5 billion, with an average daily trading volume of over 1 billion, making it a leading investment tool in the A-share market [6].

兴业证券发布研报称，2026年美股有望继续走强，EPS是推动标普500指数的主要动能。中性情形下， 美联储降息两次，经济软着陆，AI叙事持续兑现为盈利，EPS增长12%，PE维持不变，对应标普500指 数仍能取得12%的涨幅。乐观情形下，美联储向特朗普妥协，2026年降息四次，经济偏强叠加AI赋能， 通胀依然保持温和，EPS增长14%，则指数将具有较大上行空间。悲观情形下，通胀风险卷土重来，美 联储货币政策被迫收缩，无风险利率和风险溢价均上升，指数回报为负。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 一、2026年美股基本面展望：美国经济软着陆，AI浪潮是经济增长的核心引擎 AI投资的时代之火——有望维持强度并扩散。1)AI相关资本开支对2025年二季度美国实际GDP同比增速 的拉动达到了0.9个百分点。对比互联网浪潮，信息处理设备以及软件投资占GDP比例仍有提升空间。 自下而上，科技巨头将继续维持高强度的资本开支。2)2026年AI投资热潮有望进一步从算力向电力基建 扩展。 财政政策宽松加码和美联储降息带动美国传统需求温和修复。1)根据CRFB等机构测算，2026财年美国 财政赤字率仍将较2025财年上升约0.3个百分点，达 ...

Group 1 - The new board of directors at Guoyuan Securities showcases a balanced age structure, covering generations from the 1950s to the 1990s, reflecting the company's emphasis on talent development [1][2] - The appointment of a younger management team is expected to inject new vitality into the company, potentially driving business innovation and digital transformation [2] - The stable transition of the executive team ensures strategic continuity, enhancing market expectations for the optimization of the company's governance structure [2] Group 2 - The ETF market in China has experienced explosive growth in 2025, with total assets increasing from approximately 3.73 trillion yuan to about 5.74 trillion yuan, marking a growth of over 2 trillion yuan and a growth rate exceeding 53% [3][4] - The Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF emerged as the top performer, with a growth of approximately 200.9 billion yuan, driven by active net subscriptions [3][4] - The performance of gold ETFs and Hang Seng Technology ETFs highlights the demand for safe-haven assets and cross-border investment opportunities, indicating a structural shift in investor preferences [4] Group 3 - Three listed securities firms are set to distribute over 1 billion yuan in cash dividends this week, indicating robust industry profitability and a strong willingness to return capital to shareholders [5] - The accelerated dividend distribution by firms like Industrial Securities and Great Wall Securities is likely to boost market confidence in the securities sector, attracting long-term capital [5] - The trend of high dividends emphasizes a value investment approach, which may optimize market structure, although short-term liquidity fluctuations should be monitored [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the AI wave will benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, leading to a differentiation and value transformation in the AI sector [1][3] - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market will continue its bull run, driven by earnings and liquidity, with significant potential for both earnings and valuation improvements, particularly in large-cap growth and dividend assets [1][11] - Investment strategies focus on generating excess returns from "growth momentum + value reconstruction dividends," with optimism for AI investments, military technology, new consumption, and pharmaceuticals [1][15] Group 2 - In 2026, the U.S. is expected to experience liquidity easing, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar improving global liquidity [2][3] - The AI technology wave is viewed as a "rigid bubble" in the context of great power competition, with concerns about bubbles potentially leading to differentiation and value transformation in the AI market [2][3] - The report draws parallels between the current AI wave and the internet boom of the late 1990s, suggesting that macroeconomic conditions and Federal Reserve policies will differ significantly from those in the early 2000s [3] Group 3 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted as a policy driver for China's economic structure in 2026, emphasizing high-quality development and structural opportunities in the stock market [4][6] - Key areas of focus include high-level technological self-reliance, stimulating domestic demand, and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries [5][6] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates a weak recovery with improving inflation, which may enhance investment opportunities [6] Group 4 - The expectation of a stronger renminbi in 2026 is supported by multiple favorable factors, including the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar and the recovery of nominal economic indicators in China [7][8] - There is an anticipated trend of foreign capital returning to the Chinese stock market, driven by the renminbi appreciation and improved asset attractiveness [8][9] - The report notes that the significant wealth in Chinese households presents further potential for equity market allocation [8][10] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to maintain its bull market in 2026, benefiting from expectations of recovery in mainland China and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [11][12] - The report indicates that the market structure in 2025 suggests significant potential for earnings and valuation improvements, particularly in sectors like technology, consumption, and healthcare [11][12] - The investment strategy emphasizes patience and caution, with a focus on sectors that can attract both domestic and foreign capital [15][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the investment strategy meeting is to explore investment opportunities in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the macroeconomic environment for 2026 [1] - The focus is on the dual core scenarios of trading and allocation in the investment advisory transformation process, aiming to create a comprehensive service system for different risk preferences and asset sizes [1] Group 2 - Zhang Yidong emphasizes that the investment strategy for Hong Kong stocks in 2026 should be patient and steady, with excess returns expected from "growth momentum and value reconstruction dividends" [2] - The AI wave is highlighted as a significant trend, with expectations that 2026 will benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, drawing parallels to the internet boom of 1996-1998 [2] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 includes an anticipated improvement in nominal GDP growth and moderate inflation recovery, with a focus on structural opportunities in the stock market [2] Group 3 - Four key areas of opportunity are identified: 1) Growth momentum driven by the AI wave, particularly in internet, edge AI, media, and sectors supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" such as military technology and new energy [3] 2) High-yield assets like insurance, banks, and energy in a low-interest-rate environment [3] 3) Value discovery in traditional industries amid global supply chain restructuring and profit improvement policies [3] 4) Strategic assets like gold and rare earths in the context of global order reconstruction [3] Group 4 - Zhang Qiyao expresses optimism for the A-share market in 2026, citing limited negative external impacts and supportive internal factors such as GDP recovery and improved corporate profitability [4] - The influx of domestic and foreign capital into the stock market is expected to deepen in 2026, driven by wealth reallocation and the return of foreign investment [4] - The performance of industries is anticipated to shift from a "淘汰赛" (elimination race) to a "竞速赛" (speed race) as more sectors enter a profit recovery phase [4] Group 5 - The sources of prosperity for listed companies in 2026 are expected to focus on AI, new energy, military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, along with price recovery and global competitive advantages [5] - The low-interest-rate environment will continue to favor dividend sectors as quality core assets, while the selection of individual stocks may shift towards free cash flow as overall corporate profitability improves [5]

Group 1 - The core investment strategy for 2026 focuses on "growth momentum and value reconstruction dividends," emphasizing the importance of patience and stability in the Hong Kong stock market [2] - The AI wave is compared to the internet boom of 1996-1998, with expectations that macroeconomic conditions and Federal Reserve policies will differ significantly from the early 2000s [2] - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to improve in 2026, with a moderate inflation recovery, indicating structural opportunities in the Chinese economy [2] Group 2 - Four key areas of opportunity are identified: 1) Growth momentum driven by AI, internet, and new consumption sectors; 2) High-yield assets like insurance and banking in a low-interest environment; 3) Value discovery in traditional industries benefiting from global supply chain restructuring; 4) Strategic assets such as gold and rare earths amid global order changes [3] - The A-share market is expected to benefit from limited negative external impacts, a global AI industry trend, and supportive liquidity conditions [4] - The recovery of corporate earnings is anticipated to be a major highlight, with a shift from a "淘汰赛" (elimination race) to a "竞速赛" (speed race) in industry performance as more sectors enter a recovery phase [4][5] Group 3 - Key sectors for investment in 2026 include AI, new energy, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on companies that can leverage global competitive advantages [5] - The trend of domestic wealth reallocating towards the stock market, along with the influx of long-term capital from various sources, is expected to create positive feedback in the market [4] - The selection of individual stocks may shift from stable dividend payers to those with strong free cash flow as overall corporate profitability improves [5]

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy for 2026 emphasizes "growth momentum and value reconstruction dividends" in both the Hong Kong and A-share markets, with a focus on structural opportunities and long-term development while downplaying short-term economic fluctuations [2][3]. Group 1: Hong Kong Market Insights - The chief strategist believes that patience and a steady approach are essential for Hong Kong investments in 2026, with excess returns expected from the AI wave and a favorable macroeconomic environment due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 includes an expected improvement in nominal GDP growth and moderate inflation recovery, indicating that the Chinese economy will present structural opportunities for the stock market [3][4]. - Key investment opportunities identified include sectors benefiting from the AI wave, military technology, energy technology, and new consumption driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]. Group 2: A-share Market Insights - The A-share market is expected to benefit from limited negative external shocks, a global AI industry trend, and a favorable liquidity environment, which will support market performance in 2026 [5]. - Internal factors such as the recovery of nominal GDP growth and price increases are anticipated to improve corporate earnings, which are seen as a major highlight for the market [5]. - The shift in industry performance from a "淘汰赛" (elimination race) to a "竞速赛" (speed race) is expected as more sectors enter a recovery phase, with a focus on high-growth industries [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Themes and Strategies - Key investment themes for 2026 include focusing on industries aligned with trends in AI, new energy, military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as sectors benefiting from price recovery and global competitiveness [6]. - The low interest rate environment is expected to enhance the strategic value of high-yield assets such as insurance, banking, and energy [4]. - The selection of individual stocks may shift from stable dividend payers to those with strong free cash flow as overall corporate earnings become more elastic [6].