Group 1 - The Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index decreased by 0.08% as of July 22, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, including Dongfang Electric and Zhejiang Construction Investment hitting the upper limit, while Shanghai Steel Union and others led the decline [1][3] - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) fell by 0.19%, with the latest price at 1.06 yuan, and it recorded a turnover rate of 2.85% with a transaction volume of 112 million yuan [1] - Over the past nine days, the Free Cash Flow ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 94.76 million yuan, totaling 232 million yuan, averaging 25.79 million yuan in daily net inflow [1] Group 2 - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Free Cash Flow Index accounted for 57.97% of the index, including SAIC Motor, China National Offshore Oil, Midea Group, and Gree Electric [3] - The latest financing buy-in amount for the Free Cash Flow ETF reached 6.89 million yuan, with a financing balance of 26.45 million yuan [3] Group 3 - The top ten stocks by weight in the Free Cash Flow ETF include SAIC Motor (10.18%), Midea Group (9.28%), and Gree Electric (7.56%), with varying performance in terms of price changes [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share rare earth sector has shown renewed strength, driven by the discovery of a new rare earth mineral, "Neodymium Huanghe," which is expected to enhance China's strategic value in rare earth resources [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since early July, the rare earth sector has entered a new phase of oscillating upward momentum, with the rare earth ETF (516780) becoming a popular product for investors looking to capitalize on industry trends [1]. - The trading volume of the rare earth ETF reached 235 million yuan on the day of reporting, reflecting active market participation [1]. - From July onwards, the rare earth ETF has seen a cumulative inflow of 217 million yuan, resulting in a net increase of 17.8 million shares and 34.9 million yuan in scale, marking increases of 18.22% and 31.10% respectively compared to the end of June [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The rare earth ETF (516780) closely tracks the CSI Rare Earth Industry Index, which includes companies involved in rare earth mining, processing, trading, and applications, providing a comprehensive view of the sector's performance [1]. - The top five constituent stocks of the index include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, China Aluminum, Grinm Advanced Materials, and Lingyi iTech, all of which are competitive leaders in the industry [1]. - The fund manager of the rare earth ETF indicated that the sustainability of the recent price increases will depend on the supply-demand fundamentals, including the issuance of mining and smelting quotas and the economic conditions of downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and robotics [2].

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth industry is experiencing significant growth, with the China Rare Earth Industry Index rising by 3.36% and key stocks reaching their daily limit up, indicating strong market interest and potential investment opportunities [1][3]. Market Performance - The rare earth ETF, Jiashi (516150), has seen a 3.48% increase, marking its third consecutive rise [1]. - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 7.84% and a transaction volume of 238 million yuan, with an average daily transaction of 297 million yuan over the past week, ranking first among comparable funds [3]. - The Jiashi rare earth ETF's scale increased by 336 million yuan in the past week, also leading among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF's shares grew by 18.4 million, achieving significant growth and ranking first in new share issuance among comparable funds [3]. - Over the past five trading days, the ETF experienced net inflows on three days, totaling 216 million yuan [3]. Historical Performance - The Jiashi rare earth ETF has seen a net value increase of 58.80% over the past year, ranking 168 out of 2917 in the index stock fund category, placing it in the top 5.76% [3]. - Since its inception, the ETF's highest monthly return was 41.25%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being four months and a maximum cumulative increase of 83.89% [3]. Industry Outlook - The investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector are viewed positively for the second half of 2025, with expectations of rising rare earth prices due to increasing demand and limited supply [3]. - The rare earth sector is recognized as a strategically important industry in China, with potential for increased attention and value reassessment driven by policy changes and its global leadership position [4]. - The permanent magnet sector is expected to benefit from the growth in humanoid robotics and the low-altitude economy [4]. Key Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the China Rare Earth Industry Index include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, China Aluminum, and others, collectively accounting for a significant portion of the index [4][6]. - Notable stock performances include Northern Rare Earth rising by 6.64%, China Rare Earth by 4.19%, and Wolong Electric Drive by 10% [6].

Core Insights - The China Securities National New Central Enterprise Modern Energy Index (932037) has seen a strong increase of 2.20%, with constituent stocks such as China Power Construction (601669) rising by 10.04% and Dongfang Electric (600875) by 9.98% [3] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced in Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, which is expected to boost the local economy and energy structure [3] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Central Enterprise Modern Energy ETF (561790) has increased by 2.55%, marking its third consecutive rise, with the latest price at 1.13 yuan [3] - Over the past two weeks, the ETF has accumulated a rise of 1.20%, ranking in the top third among comparable funds [3] - The ETF's trading volume showed a turnover rate of 8.27% with a transaction value of 3.9067 million yuan, and it ranked first in average daily trading volume over the past week at 746.33 million yuan [3][4] Group 2: Market Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates that the ongoing construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project will benefit long-term suppliers of hydropower equipment and core components for power grid transmission [4] - The report highlights a shift in the central government's approach to managing "involution" competition, which is expected to facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity and improve profitability in the solar and lithium battery sectors [4] Group 3: Index Composition - The China Securities National New Central Enterprise Modern Energy Index is designed to reflect the overall performance of 50 listed companies involved in modern energy industries, including green energy and fossil energy [5] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 49.93% of the total, with notable companies including China Yangtze Power (600900) and China Nuclear Power (601985) [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a "反内卷" (anti-involution) trend leading to a general increase in commodity prices, with specific catalysts such as policy expectations driving price movements in copper, aluminum, lithium, and cobalt [4][6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important macroeconomic information includes the U.S. June core CPI being below expectations at 2.9%, and retail sales showing a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [10]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is set to release a growth stabilization plan for key industries including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices are expected to rebound due to policy expectations, with LME copper prices increasing by 0.83% and SHFE copper prices slightly decreasing by 0.03% [6][25]. - Inventory levels have risen, with LME copper stocks increasing by 12.37% [22][25]. - Downstream demand is recovering, with copper rod operating rates at 74.2%, up by 7.2 percentage points [6]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are also expected to rise, with alumina prices increasing by 0.16% to 3165 CNY/ton [6][36]. - SHFE aluminum prices fell by 1.01% to 20500 CNY/ton, but are projected to recover due to strong policy support [6][36]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices decreased by 1.38%, while SHFE lead prices fell by 1.70% [46]. - LME zinc prices increased by 1.24%, but SHFE zinc prices dropped by 0.45% [46]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices fell by 0.73%, and SHFE tin prices decreased by 0.65% [60]. - LME nickel prices decreased by 0.33%, while SHFE nickel prices fell by 0.78% [60]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are on the rise, with lithium carbonate increasing by 4.55% to 66650 CNY/ton, and lithium spodumene rising by 5.49% to 711 USD/ton [75]. - Supply issues are noted, with a slight increase in production but ongoing inventory accumulation [75]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with domestic cobalt prices down by 1.22% to 243000 CNY/ton [88]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban by three months, which may lead to a price rebound in Q4 [88].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Views - The aluminum prices are experiencing fluctuations during the off-season, and a growth stabilization plan is expected to be announced soon [6][11]. - Despite the off-season demand, the low inventory levels and reduced aluminum supply are expected to provide some support for aluminum prices [11]. - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of July 18, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2638.0 per ton, up $36.0 from the previous week, representing a 1.4% week-on-week increase and a 9.7% year-on-year increase [24]. - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 20510.0 CNY per ton, down 185.0 CNY from the previous week, a 0.9% decrease week-on-week, but up 3.9% year-on-year [24]. - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 20760.0 CNY per ton, unchanged from the previous week, but up 5.4% year-on-year [24]. 2. Production - In June 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 360.9 million tons, a decrease of 12.0 million tons month-on-month and a decrease of 2.8 million tons year-on-year [53]. - The alumina production in June 2025 was 725.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons month-on-month, but an increase of 26.9 million tons year-on-year [53]. 3. Inventory - As of July 17, the domestic mainstream consumption area had an electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory of 49.20 million tons, an increase of 2.6 million tons week-on-week [7]. - The aluminum rod inventory was 15.60 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons week-on-week, mainly due to reduced production and downstream replenishment [7]. 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.71 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.12 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.62 CNY for 2025E [5]. - China Aluminum (601600.SH) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.91 CNY for 2025E [5]. - Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.00 CNY for 2025E [5].

Group 1 - The rare earth sector has shown a strong upward trend, with the rare earth ETF (516780) experiencing a net inflow of 287 million yuan over seven consecutive trading days from July 9 to July 17, 2025, marking it as the only rare earth-themed ETF in the A-share market to achieve this [1][2] - As of July 17, 2025, the rare earth ETF (516780) reached a new high with 1.184 billion shares and a total scale of 1.452 billion yuan, reflecting a nearly 30% growth in product scale since July [1][2] - The demand for rare earths is being driven by the growth in domestic industries such as new energy vehicles, industrial robots, and low-altitude economy, which is expected to enhance the profitability of companies within the industry [1][2] Group 2 - The prices of rare earth products, particularly praseodymium and neodymium, have increased, with the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide reaching 466,400 yuan per ton as of July 15, 2025, representing a 17.2% increase in the first half of the year [2] - The rare earth ETF (516780) tracks the CSI Rare Earth Industry Index, which includes companies involved in rare earth mining, processing, trading, and applications, with leading companies such as Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and China Aluminum among its top five constituents [2] - The management of the rare earth ETF, Huatai-PB Fund, has over 18 years of experience in ETF operations, with its ETFs collectively exceeding 500 billion yuan in scale, placing it in the top tier of the industry [2] Group 3 - The investment value of the rare earth sector is expected to further increase due to strong demand resilience and rising raw material prices, making the rare earth ETF (516780) an attractive option for investors [3] - Investors can also consider the connection funds (Class A: 014331/Class C: 014332) to capitalize on the recovery opportunities in the rare earth industry [3]

Group 1 - The Chain Expo showcased over 110 renowned companies in advanced manufacturing, including China CRRC, China Aluminum Group, Siemens, Honeywell, Corning, and Sumitomo Electric, highlighting the latest practices in rail transportation, aerospace, low-altitude economy, and industrial automation [1] - The theme event "Leading New Quality Productivity Development with Technological Innovation" emphasized that modern manufacturing is essential for a better life, and international cooperation is crucial for accelerating advanced manufacturing development [1] - Airbus's COO in China highlighted the importance of a global supply chain in the aviation industry, showcasing the relationship between Chinese manufacturing and the A320 aircraft, with components produced in China [1] Group 2 - Intelligent manufacturing is becoming the main focus for upgrading the manufacturing industry, with Siemens developing 18 digital and intelligent products, 16 of which were completed in just 9 months in China [2] - Honeywell is empowering small and medium-sized enterprises for digital transformation, emphasizing the unique demands of the Chinese market and collaborating with local associations, universities, suppliers, and customers [2] - China Aluminum Group is embracing digitalization by establishing the first "dark factory" in the non-ferrous metal industry, aiming for automation to improve efficiency and safety while reducing costs [2]

Core Viewpoint - The China Rare Earth Industry Index has shown significant growth, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the rare earth sector, with a notable increase in trading volume and index points [2]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Rare Earth Industry Index rose by 1.21% to 1955.26 points, with a trading volume of 38.291 billion yuan [1]. - Over the past month, the index has increased by 6.32%, by 20.10% over the last three months, and by 22.02% year-to-date [2]. Group 2: Index Composition - The index includes companies involved in rare earth mining, processing, trading, and applications, with a base date of December 31, 2011, set at 1000.0 points [2]. - The top ten weighted companies in the index are: Northern Rare Earth (14.93%), China Rare Earth (5.55%), Baotou Steel (5.03%), Lingyi Technology (4.94%), Aluminum Corporation of China (4.69%), Gree Environmental (4.64%), Wolong Electric (4.55%), Shenghe Resources (4.44%), Xiamen Tungsten (4.04%), and Goldwind Technology (3.97%) [2]. Group 3: Market and Sector Breakdown - The index's holdings are primarily listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (52.77%), followed by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (46.62%) and the Beijing Stock Exchange (0.61%) [2]. - In terms of industry composition, raw materials account for 66.06%, industrials for 26.77%, and information technology for 7.17% [2]. Group 4: Index Adjustment and Fund Tracking - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December, with a sample adjustment limit of 20% [3]. - Public funds tracking the rare earth industry include various ETFs from companies such as Harvest, Huatai-PB, and E Fund [3].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index for domestic resources has shown positive performance, with a recent increase in value and significant year-to-date growth, indicating a favorable market trend for resource-related stocks [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Index for domestic resources rose by 0.29% to 3511.13 points, with a trading volume of 35.435 billion yuan [1]. - Over the past month, the index has increased by 1.37%, by 5.59% over the last three months, and by 5.12% year-to-date [1]. Group 2: Index Composition - The top ten holdings in the China Securities Index for domestic resources are: Zijin Mining (15.56%), China Shenhua (6.62%), China Petroleum (5.46%), China Petrochemical (4.52%), Northern Rare Earth (4.1%), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical (3.98%), China National Offshore Oil (3.32%), Luoyang Molybdenum (3.07%), China Aluminum (3.06%), and Shandong Gold (2.99%) [1]. - The index is primarily composed of the materials sector (68.47%) and the energy sector (31.53%) [2]. Group 3: Market Structure - The Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 78.58% of the index's holdings, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange represents 21.42% [1]. - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2]. Group 4: Related Funds - Public funds tracking the domestic resources index include Minsheng Jianyin China Securities Domestic Resources C and Minsheng Jianyin China Securities Domestic Resources A [3].