Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with seven other departments, has issued a "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Nonferrous Metal Industry (2025-2026)", aiming to address structural issues and promote sustainable growth in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Goals and Objectives - The work plan sets a target for the nonferrous metal industry to achieve an average annual value-added growth of around 5% from 2025 to 2026 [2]. - It aims for an average annual production growth of 1.5% for ten types of nonferrous metals, with significant progress in domestic resource development for copper, aluminum, and lithium [2]. - The plan includes a target to exceed 20 million tons in the production of recycled metals and to enhance the supply capacity of high-end products [2]. Group 2: Key Initiatives - The work plan outlines ten initiatives focusing on resource conservation, supply optimization, transformation promotion, consumption expansion, and cooperation strengthening [2]. - It emphasizes efficient resource utilization and the implementation of a new round of exploration strategies, particularly for copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and tin [2][3]. - The plan supports the development of green and efficient mining technologies for low-grade and complex ores, as well as the comprehensive utilization of waste nonferrous metals and emerging solid waste [2]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Responses - The nonferrous metal industry faces structural challenges, including insufficient domestic supply of key metals like copper and aluminum, despite having some advantages in resource endowment and extraction [3]. - Companies like China Aluminum Corporation are expected to actively participate in the new exploration strategy, enhancing resource investigation and accelerating new mine construction [3]. - The work plan also stresses the importance of maintaining a dynamic balance between total supply and demand, avoiding irrational behaviors in the new energy mineral sector, and promoting strategic cooperation across the industry chain [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [4][6][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that industrial metal prices are expected to continue rising due to supply disruptions and seasonal demand in China during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for energy metals like lithium and cobalt, driven by strong demand from the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [3]. - Precious metals are anticipated to reach new highs due to increased safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][71]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by supply disruptions from the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which has been shut down due to a mining accident, leading to a significant reduction in expected output [2][39]. - Aluminum demand is recovering as downstream processing companies increase their operating rates, with a notable rise in pre-holiday stockpiling [2][22]. - Zinc prices are fluctuating due to mixed signals from macroeconomic indicators and supply-demand dynamics, with a slight decrease in domestic consumption observed [45][46]. Energy Metals - The report notes that cobalt supply is tightening due to regulatory changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has implemented a quota system, leading to price increases [3]. - Lithium demand remains robust, particularly in the context of energy storage and electric vehicles, with expectations of a balanced supply-demand situation [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have surged, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with gold prices reaching historical highs [4][71]. - The report suggests that central bank purchases of gold and a weakening dollar will continue to support gold prices in the medium to long term [4]. Key Companies and Their Forecasts - Zijin Mining: EPS forecast for 2024A is 1.21 CNY, with a PE ratio of 23, rated as "Buy" [4]. - Luoyang Molybdenum: EPS forecast for 2024A is 0.63 CNY, with a PE ratio of 22, rated as "Buy" [4]. - Huayou Cobalt: EPS forecast for 2024A is 2.50 CNY, with a PE ratio of 23, rated as "Buy" [4].

港交所消息：9月22日， 贝莱德 持有的 中国铝业 H股多头头寸从5.95%增至6.45%。 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The liquidity of the Rare Earth ETF managed by Jiashi has a turnover rate of 6.47% with a transaction volume of 529 million yuan [3] - Over the past month, the average daily transaction volume of the Rare Earth ETF reached 505 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The fund's scale increased by 1.716 billion yuan in the last month, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The number of shares for the Rare Earth ETF increased by 90.5 million shares this month, leading among comparable funds [3] - In the last 18 trading days, the fund attracted a total of 454 million yuan [3] - The net value of the Rare Earth ETF has risen by 105.55% over the past year, placing it in the top 11.10% among index equity funds [3] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The implementation of the "Rare Earth Management Regulations" in October 2024 will strengthen industry control, while the interim measures for total quantity control of rare earth mining and smelting will further tighten supply [4] - Leading companies like Northern Rare Earth will gain enhanced pricing power due to these regulations [4] - The rare earth industry is entering a new era of high-quality and standardized development, driven by growing demand from sectors such as electric vehicles, air conditioning, and consumer electronics [4] - The supply-demand gap for praseodymium and neodymium oxide is expected to reach 5.8% and 4.6% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a potential upward trend in price [4] - The performance of the rare earth industry chain is expected to improve quarter by quarter in the second half of the year, highlighting strategic allocation value [4] Group 3: Key Stocks - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Earth Industry Index account for 62.15% of the index, with Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth being the top two [3] - Notable stock performances include Northern Rare Earth with a rise of 2.47% and China Rare Earth with an increase of 1.16% [6] - Investors can also access rare earth investment opportunities through the Rare Earth ETF Jiashi connecting fund (011036) [6]

Group 1 - Freeport announced force majeure due to an Indonesian mining accident, expecting a 4% year-on-year decline in copper sales for Q3 2025, with Q4 nearly stagnant. The global copper increment from the top 18 mines is projected to drop from 430,000 tons to 160,000 tons, exacerbating supply-demand conflicts and driving up copper-related stocks [1] - U.S. Antimony received a $245 million exclusive supply contract from the Pentagon, planning to increase production capacity from 2,000 tons to 6,000 tons, strengthening the supply-demand support logic for the antimony sector and boosting market sentiment [1] - Overproduction of coal in Shanxi and other regions may be restricted by the new Anti-Unfair Competition Law, with tight supply expectations pushing coking coal prices up to 1,700-1,800 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - As of September 25, the non-ferrous ETF fund (159880.SZ) rose by 2.22%, and its related index, the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Index (399395.SZ), increased by 2.07%. Among major constituent stocks, Northern Copper Industry rose by 10.01%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 9.67%, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals by 8.35% [1] - HuLong Securities noted that in the context of increased macro uncertainty, precious metals maintain a trend of rising volume and price. Their non-ferrous metal industry report indicates that Zijin Mining (601899.SH) received an "overweight" rating, with a projected PE of 15 times for 2025 [1] - According to Everbright Securities' weekly report, cobalt prices have risen across the board, with a week-on-week increase of 1.13% for cobalt sulfate. Additionally, polysilicon prices have risen for two consecutive months, with a week-on-week increase of 4.0% for photovoltaic-grade polysilicon, reflecting changes in the supply-demand structure in certain non-ferrous metal segments [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Accumulate" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is supported by pre-holiday inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises and the introduction of stable growth policies, which are expected to boost market confidence and potentially support steel prices if the fundamentals continue to improve [4][5]. - For copper, the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is becoming more pronounced, with expectations of a strong copper price if downstream demand continues to improve [4][46]. - Aluminum prices may also be supported by improving downstream demand and the anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [4][52]. - Gold prices are expected to stabilize if the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index shows signs of slowing down, with long-term attention on the Fed's interest rate path [4][59]. - The cobalt market is experiencing tight supply conditions due to an extended export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is likely to strengthen cobalt prices in the short term [4][20]. - The rare earth market is expected to see price fluctuations due to weak seasonal demand, with attention on international trade policies affecting exports [4][5]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan" targeting an average annual growth of 4% in value added for the steel industry over the next two years [22]. - The plan includes ten specific measures focusing on consumption peak, supply quality improvement, industry transformation, effective consumption expansion, and deepening open cooperation [22]. - Recent data indicates a slight increase in steel demand due to construction material consumption, while supply has decreased slightly, leading to a marginal improvement in the market [22][23]. Copper Industry - The copper market is showing signs of recovery in downstream demand, with increased operating rates in domestic copper rod enterprises [45][46]. - The supply side remains stable, and the copper price is expected to be supported if demand continues to improve [46][49]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is benefiting from improved downstream demand and stable production costs, with expectations of price support from the Fed's easing policies [52][53]. Precious Metals - The gold market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic indicators, with potential price support if inflation data shows signs of slowing [59][60]. Cobalt and Rare Earths - The cobalt market is facing supply constraints due to export restrictions from the DRC, while the rare earth market is experiencing price volatility amid weak demand [4][20].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial metal sector experienced a 0.47% increase on September 24, with significant gains from companies like Jingyi Co., Ltd. and Huayu Mining [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13356.14, up 1.8% [1] - Jingyi Co., Ltd. led the gains in the industrial metal sector with a closing price of 12.27, reflecting a 10.04% increase [1] - Other notable performers included Huayu Mining, which rose by 7.83% to a closing price of 26.43, and Hailiang Co., Ltd., which increased by 6.64% to 13.00 [1] Group 2: Trading Volume and Value - Jingyi Co., Ltd. had a trading volume of 140,600 shares and a transaction value of 168 million yuan [1] - Huayu Mining recorded a trading volume of 755,500 shares with a transaction value of 1.994 billion yuan [1] - Hailiang Co., Ltd. had a trading volume of 609,700 shares and a transaction value of 777 million yuan [1] Group 3: Fund Flow Analysis - The industrial metal sector saw a net outflow of 516 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 404 million yuan [2] - The main fund inflow for China Aluminum was 75.08 million yuan, representing 5.93% of its total [3] - Jingyi Co., Ltd. experienced a main fund inflow of 38.90 million yuan, accounting for 23.20% of its total [3]

Core Insights - The China Securities National New State-Owned Enterprise Modern Energy Index has decreased by 0.80% as of September 23, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [3] - The National Energy Administration and other departments have issued guidelines aiming for significant advancements in the energy equipment industry by 2030, focusing on self-sufficiency, high-end, intelligent, and green development [3][4] Market Performance - The top-performing stocks include Nanshan Energy, which rose by 6.16%, and XJ Electric, which increased by 2.50%, while China Rare Earth fell by 5.75% [3] - The Central State-Owned Enterprise Modern Energy ETF (561790) has seen a decline of 0.88%, with a latest price of 1.13 yuan, but has accumulated a 6.55% increase over the past three months [3] Trading Activity - The trading volume for the Central State-Owned Enterprise Modern Energy ETF was 30.02 million yuan with a turnover rate of 0.7% [3] - The average daily trading volume over the past year for the ETF was 628.85 million yuan [3] Industry Outlook - Experts emphasize the necessity of new energy infrastructure to support the construction of a new energy system, including low-carbon transformation of coal power and improvements in energy storage systems [4] - The index tracks 50 listed companies involved in modern energy sectors, with the top ten stocks accounting for 48.28% of the index [4]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.08% and a year-to-date increase of 4.37% [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, China Aluminum reported revenue of 116.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.13%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.07 billion yuan, up 0.77% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative cash dividends since the A-share listing amount to 11.25 billion yuan, with 5.71 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 366,900, reflecting a growth of 5.08% [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include new entrants such as Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, with significant holdings [3] Market Activity - As of September 23, the stock price was 7.53 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 828 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.82% [1] - The stock has seen a decline of 4.44% over the last five trading days and a decrease of 7.95% over the last 20 days [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Basic Materials, specifically focusing on Copper and Aluminium - **Current Trends**: Fundamentals are stable with an improving outlook for industrial metals driven by macroeconomic factors such as US rate cuts, US dollar weakness, and China's potential stimulus measures due to weak economic data [2][3] Core Insights - **Copper Market**: - Demand normalization post-tariff has not negatively impacted prices as anticipated in Q3 2025 [2] - UBS raised copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 3% to US$4.37/lb and US$4.80/lb respectively [3] - Expected supply constraints and strong secular growth drivers (e.g., electrification) will support prices in 2026/2027 [3] - **Aluminium Market**: - Demand remains mixed, but supply constraints, particularly from China, are supporting prices [4] - Aluminium price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were increased by 5% and 2% to US$1.17/lb and US$1.18/lb respectively [4] Earnings and Price Target Adjustments - **Earnings Forecasts**: - Increased earnings forecasts for Zijin, CMOC, and JCC by 4%-5% for 2025 and 5%-9% for 2026 due to higher price expectations for copper, aluminium, and gold [5] - Specific earnings adjustments include: - Zijin: 2025 NPAT raised to Rmb 46,519 million (+4%) and 2026 NPAT to Rmb 57,056 million (+9%) [19] - CMOC: 2025 NPAT raised to Rmb 17,504 million (+5%) and 2026 NPAT to Rmb 19,200 million (+6%) [19] - **Price Target Changes**: - Price targets for key companies were raised, including: - Zijin H: Target increased by 9% to Rmb 35.4 [19] - CMOC H: Target increased by 6% to Rmb 17.5 [19] - Hongqiao: Target increased by 4% to Rmb 28.0 [19] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: - The overall outlook for industrial metals is improving, with a reduced risk of a near-term demand slowdown [2] - Potential for restocking in developed markets could support prices as traditional end markets recover [2] - **Investment Recommendations**: - Top picks include Zijin, JCC, Hongqiao, and Tianshan based on revised earnings and price targets [5] Important but Overlooked Content - **Macroeconomic Drivers**: The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic themes rather than physical market tightness in supporting metal prices [2] - **Equity Rotation**: There is a noted equity rotation into mining stocks, indicating investor confidence in the sector's recovery [2] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the copper and aluminium markets, along with specific company performance forecasts and investment recommendations.