Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.47% on December 25, with 25 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by defense and light manufacturing, which increased by 2.91% and 1.59% respectively [1] - The sectors that saw declines included comprehensive and non-ferrous metals, which fell by 1.12% and 0.77% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 18.129 billion yuan, with 8 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The automotive sector led the net inflow with 2.747 billion yuan and a daily increase of 1.46%, followed by the machinery equipment sector with a net inflow of 1.862 billion yuan and a daily increase of 1.51% [1] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector declined by 0.77%, with a total net capital outflow of 4.135 billion yuan [2] - Out of 138 stocks in this sector, 60 stocks rose, including one that hit the daily limit, while 77 stocks fell [2] - The stocks with the highest net inflow included Western Materials with 153 million yuan, China Rare Earth with 136 million yuan, and Chuangjiang New Materials with 105 million yuan [2] Non-Ferrous Metals Capital Inflow Rankings - The top stocks by capital inflow included: - Western Materials: +10.00%, turnover rate 26.00%, inflow 152.85 million yuan - China Rare Earth: +1.84%, turnover rate 2.52%, inflow 136.24 million yuan - Chuangjiang New Materials: +4.08%, turnover rate 8.95%, inflow 105.14 million yuan [2] Non-Ferrous Metals Capital Outflow Rankings - The stocks with the highest capital outflow included: - Huayou Cobalt: -2.59%, turnover rate 3.04%, outflow -492.07 million yuan - China Aluminum: -0.99%, turnover rate 1.23%, outflow -326.81 million yuan - Zijin Mining: -0.87%, turnover rate 0.62%, outflow -326.45 million yuan [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of operational efficiency as a fundamental yet often overlooked capability of companies, especially during challenging market conditions [1] - It highlights that companies with high operational efficiency are better positioned to navigate economic downturns and competitive pressures, focusing on resource utilization and agile operations [2] Group 1: Operational Efficiency Metrics - Operational efficiency is assessed through various metrics, including total asset turnover, inventory turnover, accounts receivable turnover, and per capita revenue and profit [4] - The assessment ensures fair comparisons within the same industry, avoiding the mixing of different sectors such as manufacturing and internet platforms [1] Group 2: Top Companies in Operational Efficiency - The article presents a list of the top 100 companies in A-shares based on operational efficiency ratings, showcasing those that excel in asset turnover, inventory management, and cash collection speed [1][3] - Notable companies with the highest ratings include Luoyang Molybdenum (AAA), China Aluminum (AAA), and Zijin Mining (AAA) [5][6] Group 3: Implications of High Operational Efficiency - High operational efficiency indicates better resource utilization, agility in operations, and stronger resilience to market fluctuations, making these companies attractive for investment, collaboration, or employment [8]

晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.24） 固定收益研究 成交规模增长，信用利差走阔——信用债周报 公司研究 享西部资源红利，乘铜市景气东风——西部矿业（601168）深度报告 行业研究 美国通胀缓和，金价获得支撑——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 中央和地方持续积极优化房地产政策，托举政策持续发力，积极释放刚性和改善性住房需求，对推动房地 产止跌回稳发挥了积极的作用。尽管当前房地产市场还处在新旧模式转换时期，但随着稳楼市各项政策显 效，房地产市场继续朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。基于城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效 为主的阶段这一论断，下阶段的目标是要积极构建房地产发展新模式，坚持长短结合、标本兼治，持续用 力推动房地产市场高质量发展，后续政策出台的节奏和力度值得期待。地产债方面，销售复苏进程将对债 券估值 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations on December 23, with the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) rising over 2% at one point, reaching a new high since its listing, driven by significant net subscriptions [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a net subscription of 31 million units, with an estimated net subscription amount exceeding 50 million yuan during the trading session [1]. - The ETF's performance indicators show a year-to-date increase of 87.92% and a 120-day increase of 62.58% [1]. - The ETF's top ten constituent stocks mostly experienced gains, with Shandong Gold (600547) up 6.72% and Tianqi Lithium rising over 3% [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - The spot gold price continued to rise, nearing $4,500 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 70% [5]. - Lithium carbonate futures surged over 3%, continuing a trend of price increases, with expectations of further price support due to low inventory levels [7]. - Copper prices reached record highs, with forecasts suggesting potential increases to $13,000 per ton in the second quarter of 2026 [8]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The nonferrous metal sector is projected to maintain strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 90% year-to-date, positioning it as a leading industry [12]. - The 2026 outlook for basic metals, particularly copper and aluminum, is optimistic due to expected demand improvements and supply constraints [10]. - The demand for lithium and cobalt is anticipated to grow, with lithium prices expected to continue their upward trend due to supply and demand dynamics [11].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up over 1% and the ChiNext Index up over 3%, with a total trading volume of 1.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 87 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The market surge is attributed to three main factors: strong performance of brokerage stocks, significant trading activity in broad-based ETFs, and comments from a former Japanese central bank official opposing early interest rate hikes, easing global liquidity concerns [1] Sector Performance - The optical module sector experienced a strong breakout, with New Yi Sheng and Zhong Ji Xu Chuang topping the A-share capital inflow rankings. The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) surged 5% with a net subscription of 162 million units [1][6] - The "anti-involution" theme also performed well, with lithium carbonate futures seeing a sudden spike, leading to a 3.48% increase in the Chemical ETF (516020) and a 3.27% rise in the Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) [2] Institutional Insights - Investment institutions are optimistic about the A-share market transitioning from a structural bull market to a more comprehensive bull market by 2026, with expectations of a gradual recovery in earnings [3][4] - J.P. Morgan highlighted that earnings will be key to the upward momentum of Chinese assets next year, with over one-third of sub-sectors currently in the revenue expansion quadrant [4] Key Stocks and ETFs - The top-performing stocks included Lian Te Technology, New Yi Sheng, and Tian Fu Communication, with significant price increases [6][7] - The Chemical ETF (516020) and Nonferrous Metals ETF (159876) have seen substantial inflows, indicating strong market interest in these sectors [13][19] Lithium Market Dynamics - The lithium carbonate futures market saw a dramatic increase, with prices nearing 109,860 yuan per ton, driven by supply-demand dynamics and regulatory changes affecting mining licenses [23] - The storage industry in China is expected to grow significantly over the next 3-5 years, driven by AI and data center demands, which will boost lithium demand [15] Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the chemical industry is expected to see improved profitability and dividend capabilities, with a focus on the "anti-involution" and global AI demand cycles [17] - The nonferrous metals sector is anticipated to benefit from supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical tensions, making it a core asset allocation target for the medium to long term [24]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 高股息风格个股今日（12月23日）表现强劲，聚焦"高股息+低估值"大盘蓝筹股的价值ETF（510030） 盘中突然拉升，场内价格最高涨0.91%，截至发稿，涨0.73%。 成份股方面，保险、石化、电力等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，中国石油、华电国际双双大涨超 2%，中国人保、中国铝业、中国平安等多股跟涨超1%。 中金公司认为，进入12月下旬，红利资产也可能凸显防御价值。沪深300指数动态市盈率接近历史均 值，估值与此前牛市高点比还有充分扩张空间，中国股票牛市或尚未结束。 价值投资，选择"价值"！价值ETF（510030）紧密跟踪上证180价值指数，该指数以上证180指数为样本 空间，从中选取价值因子评分最高的60只股票作为样本股。上证180价值指数成份股均为"低估值+高股 息"大盘蓝筹股，包括中国平安、招商银行、工商银行等金融板块龙头股，以及基建、资源等板块龙头 股，成份股股息率高，在波动行情中具有较好的防御属性。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 ▼ | | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 雪加 九转 图 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to surge, with the largest non-ferrous ETF, Huabao (159876), reaching a new high, up over 0.6% in intraday trading on December 23 [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - Leading gold stocks such as Shandong Gold rose over 4%, while Yunnan Zinc Industry and Zhongjin Gold increased by more than 1% [3][11]. - The international prices of gold and silver have reached historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions that have increased demand for safe-haven assets [3][11]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged over 60% [3][11]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Recent strength in gold prices is attributed to the December interest rate cut, higher-than-expected unemployment rates, and lower-than-expected CPI, which have raised expectations for further rate cuts in January [4][12]. - The long-term outlook for gold prices is positive due to a low current gold reserve in China and a trend of central bank gold purchases [4][12]. Group 3: Future Trends in Non-Ferrous Metals - By 2025, metals such as copper, aluminum, cobalt, and lithium are expected to perform well, driven by three main factors: energy transition, AI revolution, and strategic reserves amid global competition [5][12]. - The duration of the super cycle for non-ferrous metals will depend on the recovery of the US dollar's credit, progress in strategic reserves, and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies [5][12]. - The upcoming "spring market" presents opportunities for investors, supported by a weak dollar cycle, policy backing, and industrial upgrades [5][12]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the Huabao non-ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked funds is recommended to capture the beta performance across the non-ferrous metal sector [6][12]. - This ETF covers a wide range of industries including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, which helps in risk diversification compared to investing in single metal sectors [6][12].

今日具体限售解禁股情况如下： | 股票简称 | 股票代码 | 限售股类型 | 解禁股数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海航控股 | 600221 | 增发A股法人配售上市 | 99.73亿 | | 龙建股份 | 600853 | 股权激励限售流通 | 296.28万 | | 伟星股份 | 002003 | 股权激励限售流通 | 858万 | | 中国铝业 | 601600 | 股权激励限售流通 | 790.43万 | | 诺普信 | 002215 | 股权激励限售流通 | 137.5万 | | 微导纳米 | 688147 | | 3.6亿 | | 迪哲医药 | 688192 | | 297.72万 | | 杰华特 | 688141 | | 1.83亿 | 智通财经APP获悉，12月23日共有8家上市公司的限售股解禁，解禁总市值约299.36亿元。 ...

股票代码：601600 股票简称：中国铝业 公告编号：临2025-076 中国铝业股份有限公司2025年第三次临时股东会决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 本次会议是否有否决议案：无 一、会议召开和出席情况 （一）股东会召开的时间：2025年12月22日 （二）股东会召开的地点：中国北京市海淀区西直门北大街62号中国铝业股份有限公司总部办公楼会议 室 （三）出席会议的普通股股东和恢复表决权的优先股股东及其持有股份情况： ■ （四）表决方式是否符合《公司法》及《公司章程》的规定，会议主持情况等。 公司2025年第三次临时股东会由公司董事会召集，公司董事长何文建先生主持会议。本次会议的召集、 召开、表决方式符合《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简称"《公司法》"）等有关法律、法规、规范性 文件及《中国铝业股份有限公司章程》（以下简称"《公司章程》"）的规定。 （五）公司董事和董事会秘书的列席情况 1.公司在任董事7人，列席6人。公司董事蒋涛先生因其他公务未能参加本次会议。 2.公司董事会秘书朱 ...

Summary of Aluminum Industry Research Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels from December 11 to December 17, 2025. The overall market expectation for demand recovery remains cautious [1]. Key Data Points Production - Total aluminum production in China was 857,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but showing a 3% increase year-over-year (YoY). Aluminum billet production was 362 kt, also flat WoW, with a 6% YoY increase [2]. - Year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production reached 43.1 million tons (mnt), up 2.8% YoY, while aluminum billet production totaled 17.6 mnt, up 6.1% YoY [2]. Inventory - As of December 18, 2025, total aluminum ingot and billet inventory was 844 kt, down 1% WoW but up 9% YoY. The inventory included 691 kt from social sources and 154 kt from producers, with respective changes of -2% and +8% WoW [3]. - Total aluminum ingot inventory was 614 kt, down 3% WoW and up 6% YoY, while aluminum billet inventory was 230 kt, up 7% WoW and 18% YoY [3]. Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption in China was 894 kt during the week, down 2% WoW and 1% YoY. The apparent consumption of aluminum ingot and billet was 925 kt and 331 kt, respectively [4]. - YTD apparent consumption reached 44.4 mnt, reflecting a 4.1% YoY increase [4]. Core Insights - The report suggests that aluminum ingot and billet inventory data is more representative of overall aluminum demand, as it captures a broader range of inventory types. The total aluminum inventory decreased WoW, indicating a tighter supply compared to the same period in 2021, although it remains higher than in 2022-2024 [5]. - Apparent consumption levels were lower than in 2023 but higher than in 2022 and 2024 on the lunar calendar [7]. Investment Recommendations - Top picks in the aluminum sector include Hongqiao, Chalco H/A, Zijin Mining H/A, and CATL-A, reflecting a preference for companies with strong fundamentals and market positioning [1]. Risks - Key risks identified for the aluminum sector include: 1. Lower-than-expected aluminum and alumina prices [18][20]. 2. Higher-than-expected operational costs [18][20]. 3. Potential impairment losses [18][20]. 4. Changes in government policies regarding supply cuts if prices rise excessively [18][20]. Company Valuations - **Chalco A-share**: Target price set at RMB 14.77 per share, based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.93x for 2026E, reflecting expected higher aluminum margins due to decreasing raw material costs [17]. - **Chalco H-share**: Target price of HK$ 12.41 per share, based on a PB ratio of 2.28x for 2026E [19]. - **CATL**: Valued at RMB 571 per share, based on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.3x for 2026E [21]. - **China Hongqiao**: Target price of HK$ 36.00 per share, based on a PE ratio of 11.4x for 2026E [22]. - **Zijin Mining**: Target price of RMB 35.5 per share, based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation [25]. Conclusion - The aluminum industry in China is experiencing cautious demand recovery, with production and consumption trends indicating a complex market environment. Investment opportunities exist, particularly in companies with strong fundamentals, but potential risks must be carefully monitored.