Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum (601600) has launched a special action plan for 2025 aimed at enhancing quality and efficiency while returning value to shareholders, aligning with various governmental guidelines and market initiatives [1][2]. Group 1: 2025 Work Goals - The company aims to produce 16.81 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina, 4.46 million tons of fine alumina, 7.8 million tons of primary aluminum (including alloys), 14.1 million tons of raw coal, and generate 41.2 billion kWh of electricity by 2025 [2]. - The strategic focus includes building a world-class aluminum company through resource mining, technological innovation, advanced materials, and green low-carbon initiatives [2][3]. Group 2: Performance in the First Half of 2025 - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved production of 8.6 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina, 3.97 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, and 6.61 million tons of coal, representing year-on-year increases of 4.88%, 9.37%, and 3.61% respectively [3]. - The company reported revenue of 116.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.12%, and a total profit of 13.2 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 7.1 billion yuan, marking increases of 2.16% and 0.81% respectively [3]. Group 3: Future Work Measures - The company plans to enhance production operations, upgrade management, and drive technological innovation to improve profitability and value creation [4][5]. - Key initiatives include rigorous cost control, project implementation, and optimizing traditional industry structures to support sustainable development [4][5]. Group 4: Enhancing Market Recognition - The company will improve information disclosure to enhance transparency and maintain high-quality communication with investors [5][6]. - Strengthening investor relations through multiple engagement channels and enhancing shareholder returns through cash dividends and share buybacks are also prioritized [5][6]. Group 5: ESG and Value Management - The company aims to lead in green and sustainable development within the aluminum industry by enhancing its ESG governance and performance [6]. - A focus on value management will be established to improve investment value and shareholder returns through various strategic tools [6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a slight consolidation, with a noticeable trend of "high cutting and low buying" in recent funds, particularly focusing on the solid performance and high valuation of the non-ferrous metal sector during the interim report season [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a significant net inflow of over 1 billion yuan in a single day, with four out of the last five days showing net inflows totaling over 1.85 billion yuan [3] - As of the latest data, the Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has surpassed a scale of 10 billion yuan, with both fund shares and scale reaching new highs since its listing [3] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) experienced a net subscription of 2.9 million shares, translating to a real-time net subscription amount exceeding 37 million yuan [1] Group 2: Price Movements - Silver trading prices have surpassed 40 USD per ounce, marking the highest level since 2011 [5] - On September 1, tungsten concentrate prices surged by 12,000 yuan, reaching 264,000 yuan per ton, with a growth rate of 4.76%, and a cumulative increase of nearly 35% over the past two months [5] - COMEX gold futures rose over 1% on September 1, reaching a peak of 3,552 USD per ounce, setting a new historical high [5] Group 3: Sector Analysis - Analysts indicate that the A-share precious metals and industrial metals sectors are currently in a "high profitability, low valuation" phase, with expectations for valuation increases driven by active capital market trading and the "high cutting and low buying" rotation effect [3] - The non-ferrous sector is experiencing a comprehensive growth across various sub-sectors, with price-driven earnings per share (EPS) and improved sentiment contributing to a dual boost in price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [5] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a leading option for investors looking to capitalize on future opportunities in precious and industrial metals, given its higher copper content and scale [6][10]

Core Insights - The China Securities Index Free Cash Flow Index (932365) has shown a positive performance, with a 0.86% increase as of September 2, 2025, and notable gains in constituent stocks such as Silver Nonferrous (601212) up by 10.08% and Jiejia Weichuang (300724) up by 8.93% [1] Performance Summary - The Free Cash Flow ETF Fund (159233) has experienced a 1.24% increase, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with a latest price of 1.14 yuan. Over the past two weeks, the fund has accumulated a total increase of 3.58% [1] - The fund's liquidity is reflected in a turnover rate of 1.07% and a trading volume of 1.2954 million yuan. The average daily trading volume over the past week was 17.6088 million yuan [1] - The fund has seen a net inflow of 19.1927 million yuan recently, with a total of 25.8568 million yuan net inflow over the last five trading days, averaging 5.1714 million yuan per day [1] Return Metrics - Since its inception, the Free Cash Flow ETF Fund has achieved a maximum monthly return of 7.80% and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 3 months, with a total increase of 12.56%. The average return during up months is 4.07%, with a monthly profit probability of 92% [2] - The maximum drawdown since inception is 3.28%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.24%. The recovery period after drawdown is 12 days, indicating a relatively quick recovery compared to comparable funds [2] - The fund has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [2] Top Holdings - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Index Free Cash Flow Index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938), Wuliangye (000858), and COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919), collectively accounting for 57.03% of the index [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that China Aluminum (601600)(02600) achieved a net profit of 7.1 billion RMB in the first half of the year, with earnings per share of 0.412 RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1% [1] Financial Performance - Goldman Sachs has raised its profit forecast for China Aluminum for 2025-2026 by 11% to 15%, expecting regular net profits to remain strong at 13.3 billion RMB in 2025 and 14 billion RMB in 2026 [1] - The free cash flow yield for the next two years is projected to reach 22% [1] Price Forecasts - The target price for China Aluminum's H-shares has been increased from 6.3 HKD to 7.6 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Margin Adjustments - The forecast for alumina gross margins has been raised by 30% to 70% for the next two years, reflecting higher average selling prices achieved in the first half of the year [1] - However, due to expected acceleration in imports from Guinea, the profit forecast for self-supplied bauxite alumina has been lowered, with import bauxite prices adjusted down from 90 USD per ton to 75 USD per ton for the second half of this year through 2026 [1] - The alumina production forecast for 2026 has been increased by 9%, reflecting the full production of the Guangxi Huasheng project [1] - The aluminum gross margin forecasts for 2025-2026 have been reduced by 12% to 18%, reflecting higher operating costs observed in the first half of the year, with unit operating cost estimates raised by 5% to 6% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and trends in the modern energy sector, particularly focusing on the Central State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) and their investment activities in renewable energy projects [3][4][5] - As of August 29, 2025, the Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy ETF has shown a net value increase of 19.80% over the past two years, with a maximum monthly return of 10.03% since its inception [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Central State-Owned Enterprises Modern Energy Index account for 48.28% of the index, indicating a concentrated investment in key players within the energy sector [5] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, China's total investment in new energy projects reached approximately 1.4 trillion yuan, despite a year-on-year decline of 32.2%, with wind and solar power investments showing significant decreases [3] - Wind power projects attracted 365.4 billion yuan, while solar power projects received 195 billion yuan, reflecting a saturation in traditional energy markets but continued interest in offshore wind and other niche areas [3] - Water power sector demonstrated resilience in profitability, with leading companies like Yangtze Power achieving a 14.9% year-on-year increase in net profit despite challenges in water supply [3]

Macro and Strategy Research - The US durable goods orders showed a negative growth for the second consecutive month, while core capital goods orders turned positive, indicating stable investment demand from enterprises [2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) officials have differing views on inflation trends, suggesting a pause in rate cuts in September, with potential for easing later in the year due to economic uncertainties [3] - Domestic industrial enterprises' revenue growth continues to decline, but profit margins are improving, supported by previous "anti-involution" policies [3] Fixed Income Research - The bond market experienced a slight recovery before weakening again, with investor confidence remaining low [4] - The central bank's net injection of 167.6 billion yuan in the open market indicates a mixed performance in funding prices, with a divergence between cross-month and non-cross-month funding rates [5] - The supply pressure in the primary market for government bonds is expected to decrease in the remaining months of the year [6] Company Research: Haomai Technology (002595) - The company reported a revenue of 5.265 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.25%, and a net profit of 1.197 billion yuan, up 24.65% [8] - The company's core businesses are performing well, with significant growth in the CNC machine tool segment, which saw a revenue increase of 145.08% [9] - The new electric heating vulcanization machine has shown significant advantages and has received orders totaling 135 million yuan [10] Company Research: China Aluminum (601600) - The company achieved a revenue of 116.392 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 5.12% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 7.071 billion yuan, up 0.81% [12] - Production of alumina and primary aluminum increased, with alumina production reaching 8.6 million tons, a 4.88% increase [14] - The company has improved its resource self-sufficiency rate and has accelerated the production of key projects [14]

Group 1 - The report highlights the growth trend in the treatment of hemorrhoids products and the potential for expanding into wet wipes business, with a focus on the company's strong performance in the first half of 2025 [5][6][7] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.949 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.11%, and a net profit of 343 million yuan, up 10.04% year-on-year [6][7] - The company is extending its product line into the field of anal health, with rapid growth in wet wipes, leveraging its established brand recognition and user base [7] Group 2 - The report discusses the strategic focus on financial technology and the acceleration of AI model applications by the company, which reported a revenue of 1.208 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 48.55% year-on-year [8][9] - The company is narrowing its business focus to financial technology, reducing non-financial IT business, while maintaining investment in core technology and product areas [9][10] - The new generation of core products is being developed to enhance self-operated technology services, with significant investments in AI [11][12] Group 3 - The report indicates that the secondary market is under pressure, with new infrastructure turnover rates leading the market, as evidenced by the issuance of 14 public REITs in 2025, a decrease from the previous year [13][14] - The REITs index has faced declines, with the market's total value dropping to 215.894 billion yuan, while the trading activity has increased slightly [14][15] - New infrastructure sectors are showing higher turnover rates, particularly in park infrastructure, which is leading in transaction volume [15] Group 4 - The report notes that competition in the food delivery sector is intensifying, leading to significant pressure on profits, with the company reporting a revenue of 91.8 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12% [18][19] - The core local business revenue grew by 8% to 65.3 billion yuan, but operating profits fell sharply due to increased delivery subsidies and marketing expenses [19][20] - The company is optimistic about its long-term growth potential in instant delivery and overseas expansion despite short-term profit pressures [21][22] Group 5 - The report highlights the company's investments in digital and cultural sectors, with a stable revenue of 1.179 billion yuan in H1 2025, and a focus on expanding its digital technology and cultural offerings [23][24] - The online gaming segment showed a revenue increase of 9% to 706 million yuan, while the digital marketing services revenue grew by 14% [24][25] - The company is actively investing in various innovative business areas, including digital sports and arts, to enhance its market presence [25][26] Group 6 - The report indicates that the company achieved a revenue of 13.38 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.9%, with a significant rise in overseas sales [31][32] - The company is focusing on expanding its IP matrix and targeting a broader age demographic, with a notable increase in sales from online channels [33][34] - The company is adjusting its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 34.18 billion yuan, 47.16 billion yuan, and 57.25 billion yuan respectively [36]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's operating performance shows steady growth despite a challenging market environment, achieving record highs in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 [1][4][6]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Aluminum reported revenue of approximately 1164 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 5% [1][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 70.71 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.81% year-on-year [1][4]. - The operating cash flow reached 142.65 billion yuan, marking the best level for the same period since the company's establishment [1][12]. Production and Supply Chain - The production of key products such as alumina, primary aluminum, and fine alumina all saw year-on-year growth [1]. - The self-sufficiency rate of alumina ore reached a five-year high, increasing by 6 percentage points since the beginning of the year [2]. - The production volumes for alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased by 4.88% and 9.37% respectively compared to the previous year [6]. Debt and Financial Health - The company's debt-to-asset ratio decreased to 46.88% by the end of June 2025, continuing a downward trend [2][12]. - Financial expenses for the first half of 2025 were 11.89 billion yuan, marking a continued decline [2][12]. Dividend Distribution - China Aluminum plans to distribute a cash dividend of 21.10 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, which accounts for approximately 30% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3][13]. Strategic Focus and Innovation - The company is focusing on resource security, technological innovation, and high-end materials to enhance its competitive edge [6][9]. - Significant investments in research and development have been made, with R&D expenditures from 2021 to 2024 being 24.93 billion yuan, 66.66 billion yuan, 54.44 billion yuan, and 31.70 billion yuan respectively [11].

Summary of Aluminum Corp. of China (Chalco) Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: Aluminum Corp. of China (Chalco) - **Stock Ticker**: 2600.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$117.4 billion / $15.1 billion - **Industry**: Basic Materials, specifically aluminum and alumina production Key Financial Highlights - **1H25 Net Profit**: Rmb7.1 billion, EPS of Rmb0.412, up 1% YoY [1] - **Recurring Net Profit Estimate**: Rmb6.7 billion, up 2% YoY, inline with estimates [1] - **Interim Dividend**: Rmb0.123 per share, 30% payout ratio, higher than 20% in 1H24 [1] - **Revenue Growth**: 5% YoY to Rmb116.4 billion in 1H25 [35] - **Free Cash Flow (FCF)**: Dropped 37% YoY to Rmb9.5 billion [30] Earnings Estimates Revision - **Earnings Estimates for 2025-26**: Revised up by 11-15% due to higher alumina profit, despite lower aluminum profit [2] - **Projected Recurring Net Profit**: Rmb13.3 billion in 2025E and Rmb14.0 billion in 2026E [2] - **Free Cash Flow Yield**: Expected to reach 22% for 2025-26E [2] Segment Performance - **Aluminum Segment**: Contributed 55% of total gross profit, increased by 3% YoY, but below expectations due to lower realized ASP and higher COGS [26] - **Alumina Segment**: Contributed 40% of total gross profit, up 19% YoY, driven by higher realized ASP [27] - **Energy and Trading Segment**: Contributed 5% of total gross profit, down 65% YoY due to lower margins [28] Cost and Pricing Dynamics - **Unit Operating Cost**: Increased by 3% YoY for aluminum, 9% above estimates [26] - **Realized ASP for Aluminum**: Declined by 2% YoY, while alumina ASP increased by 2% YoY [26][27] - **Projected Alumina Production Volume**: Revised up by 9% for 2026E [24] Valuation and Price Target - **12-Month Price Target**: HK$7.60 (from HK$6.30) and Rmb8.00 (from Rmb6.80) [2] - **P/E Ratios**: Expected to be 6.2 in 2024, rising to 9.6 by 2027 [14] - **P/B Ratios**: Expected to be 1.1 in 2024, rising to 1.1 by 2027 [14] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: Lower aluminum and alumina pricing, removal of capacity caps, slower green demand, and higher supply from recycled aluminum [32][42] - **Upside Risks**: Higher pricing driven by better supply-demand balance and enhanced capacity caps [33][43] Conclusion - **Investment Rating**: Maintain Buy/Neutral on Chalco-H/A, with strong earnings outlook supported by elevated industry spreads and robust alumina demand [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a bullish outlook for precious metals, particularly silver, driven by rising interest rate cut expectations and a weakening dollar, with silver prices reaching new highs [1][34]. - For industrial metals, the report is optimistic about copper prices due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1][4]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are experiencing price declines amid weaker market sentiment, although demand remains stable due to seasonal factors [1][24]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Silver prices have surged, with COMEX silver reaching $40.75 per ounce, marking a significant technical breakout [1][34]. - Gold prices are also approaching $3,500 per ounce, with expectations of inflation rising in the U.S. economy [1][34]. Industrial Metals - Copper: The report anticipates a price increase due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand, with global refined copper production expected to rise by 3.6% year-on-year [1][4]. - Aluminum: The report notes a slight increase in theoretical operating capacity in China's aluminum industry, but anticipates price fluctuations due to mixed production adjustments [1][4]. Energy Metals - Lithium: Prices have declined, with battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping to 80,000 yuan per ton, while production and inventory levels are also decreasing [1][24]. - Metal Silicon: The report indicates stable supply and demand dynamics, with short-term price fluctuations expected [1][24]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, including: - Shandong Gold (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 1.75 yuan for 2027 [3]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.01 yuan for 2027 [3]. - China Hongqiao Group (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.83 yuan for 2027 [3].