Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that lithium carbonate prices are rebounding due to a sustained recovery in downstream demand, driven by factors such as the election of Donald Trump and subsidies for trade-in policies [1] - Huatai Securities indicates that the recent market sentiment has improved primarily because the demand for lithium batteries during the off-season has exceeded market expectations, leading to a short-term supply-demand mismatch [1] - The current surge in demand is likely to continue until the end of the year, which may further push lithium prices upward [1] Group 2 - However, in the long term, Huatai Securities projects that the global static supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2026 will still be in surplus, suggesting that lithium prices may continue to fluctuate and seek a bottom in 2025 [1] - The turning point for the lithium industry is expected to arrive in 2026, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1]

证券时报e公司讯，华泰证券研报表示，全国人大常委会审议通过近年来力度最大化债举措，地方政府 的化债压力和现金流将大为改善。 环保板块自2020年来基本面和估值双杀，主要是受到地方财政支出的负面影响，应收账款居高不下，收 入/利润增速放缓甚至下滑。 当前阶段使用者付费往往难以覆盖实际成本，环保公司大部分收入直接或间接来自中央/地方财政。 华泰证券判断，化债推动下，长期困扰行业的应收账款问题有望显著改善，从而使环卫、设备、水务及 部分检测公司的现金流、订单、盈利进入正向循环。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved operating revenue of 314.24 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 125.21 billion yuan, up 30.6% year-on-year [4][5] - The sale of AssetMark is expected to enhance the company's financial position, with an estimated revenue of 56.43 billion yuan from the transaction [5][6] - The company is expanding its international business, particularly in Southeast Asia, which is anticipated to strengthen its competitive edge [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported a quarterly revenue of 139.83 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth rates of 57.8% and 23.4%, respectively [4] - The net profit for Q3 was 72.1 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 138.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 138.7% [4] - The company's total assets and net assets as of Q3 2024 were 8,474.58 billion yuan and 1,855.55 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.37% and an increase of 7.83%, respectively [4] Revenue Breakdown - The company's revenue from proprietary trading, brokerage, investment banking, capital intermediation, and asset management for the first three quarters was 120.39 billion yuan (+56.9%), 39.66 billion yuan (-14.3%), 13.57 billion yuan (-40.8%), 13.01 billion yuan (+52.0%), and 30.33 billion yuan (-3.7%), respectively [5] - The company’s other business revenue reached 73.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 142.5% [5] Profitability Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 155.86 billion yuan, 144.55 billion yuan, and 154.26 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of +22.24%, -7.26%, and +6.72% [6][7] - The report suggests a reasonable price range of 21.02 yuan to 24.52 yuan based on a projected price-to-book ratio of 1.2 to 1.4 for 2024 [6]

证券时报e公司讯，华泰证券研报表示，地方隐性债务一揽子化债组合拳靴子落地。 11月8日，全国人大常委会批准《国务院关于提请审议增加地方政府债务限额置换存量隐性债务的议 案》。 新一轮化债方案旨在2028年底前通过三项政策工具，将地方政府隐性债务总额从14.3万亿降至2.3万亿： 1）3年6万亿元置换额度；2）5年4万亿元专项债化债额度；上述两项共计10万亿元。 华泰证券认为，整体化债方案符合预期，化债思路更加务实，置换后地方政府的化债压力和现金流将大 为改善，五年累计可节约6000亿元左右利息支出。 华泰证券认为，化债思路的底层逻辑更多体现"托底防风险"，而非"强刺激"思路。 当前外部地缘政治风险抬升，外需或进一步承压；市场期待下一步财政政策更多聚焦房地产纾困，扩大 消费需求，助力修复地方政府、企业、居民三大资产负债表。 化债有三重目标：①解决地方"燃眉之急"；②推动解决地方各类"三角债"问题，降低金融机构呆坏账损 失。 ③扭转存量债务过度占用财政资源的困境。 化债三个基本原则并没有改变：①不改变地方政府的偿债责任。 底层逻辑仍是"谁家的孩子谁抱"。 ②坚决遏制新增隐性债务，避免处理完"旧账"，又增"新账"。 ...

证券时报e公司讯，华泰证券研报表示，预计上市银行2025年业绩有望企稳，但息差和信用成本或为主 要扰动变量。 稳增长政策持续，助力银行信贷稳健投放；央行多次表态呵护银行盈利空间，负债端成本改善效应逐步 显现，息差降幅有望逐步收窄；随资本市场回暖，中收有望自低基数回升。 资金风险偏好回暖下，银行选股逻辑从股息避险转向绩优+低估值弹性个股，稳健高股息仍有配置价 值。 ...

证券时报e公司讯，华泰证券研报表示，展望2024年第四季度，以旧换新推动下家电社零恢复较为积 极，且零售好转逐步向出货传导，上市公司内销有望逐步优化，而出口随海外补库需求弱化，拉动力或 相对温和。 因此，2024年第四季度需更为重视内销占比较高且更为受益于以旧换新相关板块，同时中国家电企业全 球份额提升逻辑不变，海外消费支撑出口温和增长。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Huatai Securities with a target price of 23.25 CNY, compared to the current price of 19.66 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report highlights significant net profit growth driven by the sale of AssetMark, with a reported net profit of 12.52 billion CNY for the third quarter of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.6% [1]. - Excluding the investment income from AssetMark, the net profit would have been 6.29 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 34.4% [1]. - The report indicates that the company's self-operated business revenue remains stable when excluding AssetMark's investment income, with a total of 71.2 billion CNY in net income from heavy capital business [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Total operating revenue for the third quarter of 2024 was 241 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, with a quarterly revenue of 118 billion CNY, showing a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 51.8 billion CNY [1]. - The company's self-operated business revenue, excluding AssetMark, was 58.1 billion CNY, with a quarterly revenue of 15.9 billion CNY, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.4 billion CNY [1]. - Interest income from credit business was reported at 9.94 billion CNY, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 209 million CNY [1]. - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.73 CNY, 1.52 CNY, and 1.88 CNY respectively, with corresponding book values per share (BPS) of 18.32 CNY, 19.38 CNY, and 20.67 CNY [1][3]. Business Segment Performance - Brokerage business revenue was reported at 39.7 billion CNY, with a quarterly revenue of 12.4 billion CNY, showing a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 9% [1]. - Investment banking revenue increased quarter-on-quarter, reaching 13.6 billion CNY, with a quarterly revenue of 4.3 billion CNY, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.7 billion CNY [1]. - Asset management revenue decreased to 30.3 billion CNY, with a quarterly revenue of 8.1 billion CNY, showing a quarter-on-quarter decline [1]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a projected price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.01 for 2024, decreasing to 0.89 by 2026, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [1][3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 9.45%, 7.85%, and 9.11% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [1].

| 2. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | H | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 06886 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,719,045,680 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,719,045,680 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | 0 | | | RMB | | 0 | | 本月底結存 | | | 1,719,045,680 | RMB | | 1 RMB | | 1,719,045,680 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： RMB 9,027,302,281 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2024年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: HTSC（於中華人民共和國註冊成立，中文公司名稱為华泰证券股份有限 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities anticipates 2025 to be a year of stabilization amid three cyclical resonances, suggesting that the A-share profit cycle is not "disappearing" but is temporarily "flattened" by high-dimensional factors [1] Group 1: Profit Cycle Insights - The A-share profit cycle has been declining for over three years, longer than previous cycles, but is expected to show stronger performance than domestic macro growth and lead overseas equities in stabilizing in the second half of 2025 [1] - Key factors influencing the profit cycle include: 1) Inventory Cycle: A fiscal impulse in Q4 2024 is expected to drive a credit cycle recovery in Q2 2025, leading to a new inventory cycle in China ahead of overseas markets [1] 2) Capacity Cycle: Supply-side reforms are anticipated to show results from Q2 2025 to early Q4 2025, with A-share profit trends potentially outpacing revenue trends [1] 3) Real Estate and Construction Cycle: If real estate sales stabilize in the second half of 2025, the visibility for A-share profit recovery will increase [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The first half of 2025 is expected to face pressure, while opportunities are anticipated in the second half [1] - A "barbell" investment style is projected to outperform, with large-cap growth stocks expected to perform better in the latter half of the year [1] - Domestic demand is viewed as a protective shield, while manufacturing is seen as a key driver [1]

华泰证券：房价出现止跌的初步迹象 后续仍要关注市场复苏的持续性 财联社11月3日电，华泰证券表 示，9月以来地产政策"组合拳"对于房地产市场的提振效果显著，10月新房和二手房网签成交面积同环 比显著改善。 从贝壳领先指标来看，10月市场活跃度显著修复，房价出现止跌的初步迹象，后续仍要关注市场复苏的 持续性。 9月以来，政治局会议和政策"组合拳"为房地产市场"止跌回稳"注入强心剂，各部委协同有望加速市场 预期修复和量价企稳，这也有助于地产板块的估值修复。 我们看好在核心城市拥有更多资源和改善性产品能力的稳健房企，以及业绩具备韧性、现金流稳健且派 息慷慨的物管公司。 ...