Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to 中远海能 and 吉祥航空, and an "Outperform" rating to 南方航空, 中国东航, and 中国国航 [5][6]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is expected to see improved fundamentals in the medium to long term, driven by a shift in oil production policies from reduction to gradual increase, with VLCC demand projected to rise by 4.4% in 2025 and 6.9% in 2026 [3]. - The small container ship market is on an upward trend, supported by economic growth in Southeast Asia and changes in shipping alliances, leading to increased demand [3]. - The air travel market is experiencing a volume increase but a price decrease, with domestic passenger traffic expected to grow by 3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, while international markets are recovering steadily [3]. - The express delivery sector is seeing a recovery in direct logistics, with a year-on-year growth of 22.4% in the express industry for January-February 2025, although price competition remains intense [3]. - The road and rail sectors are expected to maintain growth in traffic volume, with a projected year-on-year increase in highway traffic and railway passenger volume [3]. Summary by Sections Shipping - The long-term supply logic remains stable, with a gradual increase in VLCC demand and a limited supply of new ships expected to be delivered [3]. - The average age of the global fleet is increasing, indicating a strong demand for replacing old ships [3]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding cycle is on an upward trend, with a continued supply-demand imbalance favoring shipbuilders [3]. - Ship prices are expected to rise again after absorbing the negative impacts of new capacity [3]. Aviation - The domestic air travel market is projected to see a volume increase but a price decrease due to high base effects from the previous year [3]. - International markets are recovering, with a 20% year-on-year increase in passenger traffic and flight numbers [3]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to continue its recovery, with significant growth in logistics demand anticipated [3]. - Price competition remains fierce, impacting profitability for leading companies [3]. Road and Rail - Traffic volume on highways and railways is expected to grow, with specific companies projected to perform well [3].

重要内容提示： 股东大会召开日期：2025年4月29日 本次股东大会采用的网络投票系统：上海证券交易所股东大会网络投票系统 一、 召开会议的基本情况 (一)股东大会类型和届次 2024 年年度股东大会 证券代码：601872 证券简称：招商轮船 公告编号：2025-014 招商局能源运输股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年年度股东大会的通知 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 方式 (四)现场会议召开的日期、时间和地点 召开的日期时间：2025 年 4 月 29 日 14 点 30 分 召开地点：深圳市南山区太子路 1 号新时代广场 13 楼会议室 (五)网络投票的系统、起止日期和投票时间。 网络投票系统：上海证券交易所股东大会网络投票系统 网络投票起止时间：自 2025 年 4 月 29 日 至 2025 年 4 月 29 日 采用上海证券交易所网络投票系统，通过交易系统投票平台的投票时间为股 东大会召开当日的交易时间段，即 9:15-9:25,9:30-11:30，13:00-15:00；通过互联 网投票平台的 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][8][20] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 was weak, with total revenue of 25.799 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.32% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.107 billion yuan, an increase of 5.59% year-on-year. The profit breakdown by segment shows net profits of 2.635 billion yuan for oil tankers, 1.548 billion yuan for bulk carriers, 1.314 billion yuan for container ships, and 0.337 billion yuan for ro-ro ships, with significant variances across segments [1][12] - The oil transportation sector was the main drag on performance due to weak global economic conditions leading to OPEC+ production cuts and a shift towards lower-cost black market oil, which reduced demand for compliant oil transportation. Conversely, the bulk shipping sector benefited from increased imports of bulk goods in China and longer shipping distances, resulting in a 27.3% year-on-year increase in the average BDI [2][15] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.56 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 1.264 billion yuan, with a total dividend payout of 2.079 billion yuan for 2024, resulting in a payout ratio of 40.7%. Additionally, the company will repurchase approximately 5.562 million shares, further enhancing shareholder returns [3][16] Financial Summary - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 from 6.15 billion yuan and 6.58 billion yuan to 5.97 billion yuan and 6.54 billion yuan, respectively, while introducing a 2027 profit forecast of 6.83 billion yuan. The corresponding PE ratios are projected to be 8.9, 8.1, and 7.8 times [5][17] - The financial indicators for 2024 show a net profit of 5.107 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 5.971 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 16.9%. Revenue is expected to rise to 28.973 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 12.3% increase [6][18]

Group 1: Aluminum Industry - The aluminum industry is experiencing a good destocking performance, but prices are under pressure due to tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainties [4][10]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has slightly increased, with average costs around 16,960 RMB/ton, down 103 RMB/ton week-on-week [5]. - Downstream aluminum processing enterprises are seeing a recovery in orders and operating rates, supported by demand from the photovoltaic sector and automotive aluminum [6]. Group 2: Power Industry - China Power reported a revenue of 54.21 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, with a net profit of 3.86 billion RMB, up 25.2% [11][12]. - The company’s coal-fired power segment showed improved performance, while hydropower turned profitable due to favorable water conditions [13]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 60% for the year [12]. Group 3: Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector has seen a decline, with the beverage segment down 3.65% over the past two weeks, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [15]. - The liquor market is experiencing a seasonal downturn, with prices for premium brands like Moutai decreasing, indicating weaker demand [16]. - The overall performance of liquor companies varies, with some regional brands showing resilience amid macroeconomic pressures [17]. Group 4: Logistics Industry - SF Express reported a revenue of 15.746 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 27%, with a net profit of 132 million RMB, up 161.8% [21][22]. - The company’s last-mile delivery segment saw significant growth, particularly in county-level markets, with a 121% increase in revenue [24]. - The logistics sector is benefiting from network scale effects, leading to improved profit margins and cost reductions [25]. Group 5: Chemical Industry - The chemical sector is expected to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025, driven by low inventory levels and improving profitability [29]. - Phosphate rock supply remains tight, with companies like Baitian Co. expanding production capacity to meet growing demand [28]. - The industry is witnessing price increases for key products like urea and hexafluoropropylene, indicating a positive market sentiment [35].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company reported a net profit that exceeded expectations in Q4 2024, driven by significant contributions from VLCC and container shipping [2] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that the tanker freight market will remain strong, with a reduction in nominal capacity expected due to restrictions on the "shadow fleet" and the inefficiency of aging vessels [3] - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a proposed dividend of 1.56 CNY per 10 shares, representing a total payout of 43.3% of net profit [3][4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 257.99 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 275.20 billion CNY in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 6.67% [5] - The net profit is expected to rise from 5.107 billion CNY in 2024 to 6.685 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 30.89% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.63 CNY in 2024 to 0.82 CNY in 2025, with a P/E ratio decreasing from 10.17 to 7.77 [5] Business Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 92.06 billion CNY from oil transportation, despite a decline of 4.8%, while net profit from this segment was 26.35 billion CNY, down 14.5% [9] - The dry bulk segment saw an increase in revenue to 79.40 billion CNY, up 11.7%, with net profit rising by 72% to 15.48 billion CNY [9] - Container shipping revenue was 54.34 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 1.9%, but net profit increased by 50.5% to 13.14 billion CNY [9] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - The company plans significant capital expenditures of 117 billion CNY in 2025 and 142 billion CNY in 2026 [3] - The overall supply-demand fundamentals for the oil tanker market are expected to remain favorable, with VLCC likely to regain its leading position in the coming years [4]

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 25.799 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.107 billion yuan, an increase of 5.59% [1] - In Q4 alone, the revenue was 6.503 billion yuan, down 5.18%, but the net profit reached 1.738 billion yuan, up 61.1%, marking a three-year quarterly high [1] Business Performance Analysis - Oil transportation revenue was 9.206 billion yuan, down 4.8%, with a net profit of 2.635 billion yuan, down 14.5%. The freight rates for oil tankers showed a fluctuating trend, with average TCE for VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax at $39,000/day, $47,000/day, and $44,000/day, reflecting year-on-year declines of 20.5%, 15.5%, and 21.7% respectively [1] - Bulk shipping revenue increased to 7.940 billion yuan, up 11.7%, with net profit reaching 1.548 billion yuan, up 72% due to favorable seasonal conditions [1] - Container shipping revenue was 5.434 billion yuan, down 1.9%, with net profit of 1.314 billion yuan, up 50.5%, driven by significant capacity increases in Southeast Asia and South Asia routes [1] Fleet Optimization and Capital Expenditure - The company received three new Aframax tankers in 2024 and has placed orders for additional vessels, with capital expenditures projected at 11.7 billion yuan in 2025 and 14.2 billion yuan in 2026 [2] - Operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to be 8.476 billion yuan, down 4.95%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 42.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points [2] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.56 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a total dividend payout ratio of 40.7%, alongside a share buyback amounting to 132 million yuan, which together accounts for 43.3% of net profit attributable to shareholders [2] Market Outlook - The freight market for oil tankers is expected to maintain a positive trend in 2025, with a reduction in nominal capacity for VLCCs anticipated due to restrictions on "shadow fleets" and the aging fleet being less efficient [3] - If sanctions are lifted, older tankers may face a peak in scrapping, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance in the oil tanker market [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 6.685 billion yuan, 6.953 billion yuan, and 7.311 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, supported by a favorable outlook for the VLCC sector and benefits from the commencement of the West Manganese iron ore project [4] - The company is expected to maintain a "buy" rating due to the synergistic growth across its various business segments [4]

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, the company reported a slight decrease in revenue but a notable increase in net profit, indicating resilience in a challenging market environment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 25.799 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.11 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [1] - In Q4 2024, the company recorded operating revenue of 6.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, but net profit rose significantly by 61.1% to 1.74 billion yuan [1] - The company's non-recurring net profit for 2024 was 5.02 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year increase [1] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The oil transportation sector faced challenges due to declining crude oil demand, with the average TCE for VLCC in 2024 at $39,239 per day, down 20.5% year-on-year [2] - Despite the downturn in the oil sector, the company's VLCC fleet outperformed industry averages, with a significant reduction in the average breakeven point by approximately 6% [2] - The dry bulk shipping sector saw a positive trend, with Cape-sized bulk carrier earnings increasing by 58% in 2024, supported by rising imports and longer shipping distances [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The oil transportation market is expected to remain strong in 2025, driven by OPEC+'s exit from voluntary production cuts and ongoing U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela [3] - The dry bulk market is anticipated to balance upwards in the medium to long term, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical developments [3] - The company forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027, with expected revenues of 27.730 billion yuan, 29.328 billion yuan, and 30.324 billion yuan, respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11] Core Views - The report highlights a diversified business growth outlook, particularly optimistic about the oil transportation market's upward trend in 2025 [5][10] - The company achieved a revenue of 25.799 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 5.6% to 5.11 billion yuan [5][10] - The report emphasizes the company's strong performance in the dry bulk shipping sector, with a significant net profit increase of 72.2% year-on-year [6][10] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.5 billion yuan, down 5.2% year-on-year, but net profit surged by 61.1% to 1.74 billion yuan [5][6] Oil Transportation - The average Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC) was $39,239 per day in 2024, a decline of 20.5% year-on-year, yet the company's VLCC fleet outperformed the industry average [6][7] - Revenue from oil transportation was 9.21 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.64 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 4.8% and 14.5% respectively [6] Dry Bulk Transportation - Supported by increased imports and longer shipping distances, the Cape-sized bulk carrier earnings rose by 58%, with the company achieving a revenue of 7.94 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.55 billion yuan, marking increases of 11.7% and 72.2% respectively [6][10] Container Transportation - The container shipping market saw demand growth and tight supply, leading to a significant rise in freight rates, although the company's revenue from this segment slightly decreased by 1.9% to 5.43 billion yuan, while net profit increased by 50.5% to 1.31 billion yuan [6][10] Future Outlook - The oil transportation market is expected to remain strong due to OPEC+ exiting voluntary production cuts and ongoing sanctions against Iran and Venezuela [7][10] - The dry bulk market is anticipated to balance upward, with freight rates expected to gradually increase [8][10] Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 27.73 billion yuan, 29.33 billion yuan, and 30.32 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 6.36 billion yuan, 7.36 billion yuan, and 7.89 billion yuan [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (601872) with a target price of 9.71 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [1][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that the profitability of the dry bulk and container shipping sectors is expected to increase significantly in 2024, offsetting the pressure on oil transportation. The overall profitability is projected to continue growing, with a focus on the timing for contrarian investments [2][11]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 5.1 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.6%. The multi-segment layout continues to demonstrate its advantages [11]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023A: 25,881 million CNY - 2024A: 25,799 million CNY (down 0.3%) - 2025E: 30,296 million CNY (up 17.4%) [4] - **Net Profit (attributable to parent)**: - 2023A: 4,837 million CNY - 2024A: 5,107 million CNY (up 5.6%) - 2025E: 5,623 million CNY (up 10.1%) [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.59 CNY - 2024A: 0.63 CNY - 2025E: 0.69 CNY [4] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2023A: 13.1% - 2024A: 12.8% - 2025E: 13.0% [4] Market Data - **Current Price**: 6.38 CNY - **Market Capitalization**: 51,957 million CNY - **52-week Price Range**: 6.19 - 9.83 CNY [5] Segment Performance - **Oil Transportation**: - Net profit expected to decline by 15% due to geopolitical pressures and increased production from Iran, with average TCE rates remaining stable [11]. - **Dry Bulk**: - Net profit projected to increase by 72%, with overall supply and demand remaining favorable despite fluctuations [11]. - **Container Shipping**: - Net profit expected to rise by 51%, driven by capacity expansion and the pursuit of high-value routes [11]. Strategic Outlook - The report suggests that the oil transportation supply-demand dynamics may improve, with potential upside from falling oil prices and inventory replenishment opportunities. The company is also focusing on shareholder returns, with a projected dividend yield of 4.3% in 2025 [11].

证券代码：601872 证券简称：招商轮船 公告编号：2025[013] 招商局能源运输股份有限公司 关于以集中竞价方式回购公司股份的进展公告 1 重要内容提示： 回购方案首次披露日 2024/10/18 回购方案实施期限 自公司股东大会审议通过回购方案之日起 12 个月 内 预计回购金额 2.22 亿元（含）—4.43 亿元（含） 回购用途 √减少注册资本 □用于员工持股计划或股权激励 □用于转换公司可转债 □为维护公司价值及股东权益 累计已回购股数 5,560.22 万股 累计已回购股数占总股本比例 0.68% 累计已回购金额 36,182.69 万元 实际回购价格区间 6.18 元/股—7.05 元/股 公司以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份的议案》。公司于 2024 年 11 月 7 日披露了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购股份的回购报告书》， 本次回购金额不低于人民币 2.22 亿元（含），不超过人民币 4.43 亿 元（含），回购股份全部用于注销并减少注册资本。具体内容详见公 司在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）上披露的相关公告。 二、回购股份的进展情况 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》《上 ...