Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights Yonghui Supermarket's transition into a new phase of self-operation focused on "product strength" and "scene strength," with the 2026 New Year Festival serving as a critical testing point for this new model [1] - Yonghui has launched a gift box matrix covering three core scenarios: health nourishment, social gatherings, and home cooking, featuring approximately 150 products with over 70% being new items, and 40% of the gift boxes being customized [1] - According to Nielsen IQ's report, about 25% of consumers plan to increase their spending on festive gifts, indicating a trend towards healthier, higher-quality, and more emotional gift consumption [1] Group 2 - Yonghui's global direct procurement supply chain is a crucial support for the New Year Festival, providing a solid quality foundation for the gift box products [2] - Chilean cherries have emerged as a star product for the New Year Festival, achieving sales exceeding 50 million yuan during the New Year period and nearly 200% year-on-year growth since its launch [2] - To address the pain points of gift delivery during the Spring Festival, Yonghui has introduced gift storage and delivery services, allowing consumers to temporarily store large items or have gifts sent across cities [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.00 points, with a change of 0.29%, and the total trading volume of A-shares reached 27,322.16 billion yuan [1] Stocks with Death Cross - A total of 53 A-shares experienced a death cross, where the 5-day moving average fell below the 10-day moving average [1] - Notable stocks with significant distance between their 5-day and 10-day moving averages include: - *ST Rock (600696): 5-day MA at 2.75 yuan, 10-day MA at 2.85 yuan, difference of -3.33% [1] - *ST Jintai (300225): 5-day MA at 5.76 yuan, 10-day MA at 5.87 yuan, difference of -1.91% [1] - Changguang Huaxin (688048): 5-day MA at 127.52 yuan, 10-day MA at 129.78 yuan, difference of -1.74% [1] Performance of Selected Stocks - Stocks with notable performance changes include: - *ST Rock (600696): Decreased by 4.98% with a turnover rate of 0.13% [1] - *ST Jintai (300225): Decreased by 2.82% with a turnover rate of 3.22% [1] - Changguang Huaxin (688048): Decreased by 1.70% with a turnover rate of 4.34% [1] - Yonghui Superstores (601933): Increased by 2.34% with a turnover rate of 4.08% [1] - Jinyuan Co. (000546): Increased by 3.43% with a turnover rate of 7.54% [1] Additional Stocks with Minor Changes - Other stocks with minor changes include: - Longi Green Energy (002363): Increased by 3.10% with a turnover rate of 5.77% [1] - Gujing Gongjiu (000596): Decreased by 1.11% with a turnover rate of 0.79% [1] - Miao Ke Landuo (600882): Increased by 0.49% with a turnover rate of 0.84% [2]

Core Insights - The retail industry in 2025 is experiencing significant changes, with emerging channels like Hema and Aldi growing rapidly while traditional retailers face ongoing challenges [1][3] Group 1: Emerging Channels - Hema's overall revenue growth exceeded 40% year-on-year in 2025, with the company entering 40 new cities and opening over 200 new stores [2] - Aldi has expanded its presence in China, opening over 80 stores since its initial launch in Shanghai in June 2019 [2] - The snack retail sector is also thriving, with Mingming Hen Mang achieving a revenue of 36.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.37% [2] Group 2: Traditional Retail Challenges - Traditional retailers like Zhongbai Group reported a revenue decline of 19.41% year-on-year, resulting in a loss of 325 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] - Bain's report indicates a continued contraction in offline channels, with traditional hypermarkets and convenience stores losing market share in fast-moving consumer goods [3] - Despite the overall pressure, new channels such as warehouse membership stores, snack stores, and discount stores are expanding rapidly, with year-on-year growth rates of 40%, 51%, and 92% respectively [3] Group 3: Retail Transformation - Traditional retailers are attempting to reverse their fortunes through store and format adjustments, with Zhongbai Group closing 30 hypermarkets and incurring a closure loss of approximately 180 million yuan [3][6] - The shift towards fresh and ready-to-eat food offerings is evident, as traditional retailers adapt to consumer preferences for fresh products [7][8] - Retailers are increasingly focusing on private label products, with Yonghui Supermarket planning to develop 100 billion-level products over three years [9] Group 4: Consumer Preferences - Consumers are gravitating towards high-value and experiential retail formats, leading to a bifurcation in the market [7][9] - The success of membership stores like Sam's Club is attributed to their unique product selection and commitment to quality, although they face challenges in supply chain management [5][7] - The retail landscape is expected to evolve into a clear "M-shaped" differentiation, with one end focusing on efficiency and the other on experiential value [9]

Core Insights - The report indicates a "relatively hot" market sentiment with a score of 70, suggesting a positive outlook for the market in the near term [6][9]. - Key investment themes identified include robotics, banking, and retail, each with specific growth drivers and related stocks [6]. Group 1: Robotics Sector - The robotics theme is bolstered by the release of the "Hangzhou Intelligent Robot 'Strong Chain and Supplement Chain' Action Plan (2026-2027)", aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of the local robotics industry, particularly in embodied intelligence [6]. - Related stocks in this sector include Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050) and Wolong Electric Drive (600580) [6]. Group 2: Banking Sector - Banking stocks are highlighted for their high dividend characteristics, with the CSI Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly above the 10-year government bond yield [6]. - In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, banking stocks are positioned as important investment options for long-term funds such as insurance and social security [6]. - Key banking stocks mentioned are Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [6]. Group 3: Retail Sector - The national business work conference held from January 10 to 11 set the tone for consumer stimulation and market development in 2026, emphasizing actions to boost consumption and innovate in the retail sector [6]. - The report notes initiatives like trade-in programs and the creation of the "Buy in China" brand, which are expected to inject long-term growth momentum into the industry [6]. - Relevant retail stocks include Yonghui Supermarket (601933) and Wangfujing (600859) [6].

Group 1 - Several supermarkets in Beijing activated a "reserve" mode to ensure the supply of essential goods during heavy snowfall on the weekend [1] - The Chaoyang District market saw increased customer activity, with vendors offering a wider variety of fresh produce due to anticipated higher demand [1] - Hema supermarket increased its stock of core livelihood products such as vegetables, meat, eggs, and milk by at least 1.5 times the usual amount, responding to a surge in online orders and optimizing delivery processes [1] Group 2 - Wumart Group utilized an AI smart replenishment system to accurately predict changes in consumer demand, increasing supply by 10% compared to previous periods [2] - Yonghui Supermarket proactively implemented a supply guarantee plan, increasing inventory for essential items like meat, dairy, vegetables, and convenience foods while closely monitoring stock and sales dynamics [2]

Core Viewpoint - The price of Chilean cherries has significantly decreased, making them more accessible to the general public, with a notable increase in sales volume as a result [1][8]. Price Trends - The wholesale price of Chilean cherries dropped from approximately 100 yuan/kg in November 2025 to 56 yuan/kg by January 16, 2026, marking a nearly 50% decrease [1][8]. - Retail prices also reflect this trend, with 2.5 kg of 3J cherries priced at 139 yuan and 2J cherries at 109 yuan in Guangzhou [1][3]. Sales Performance - Yonghui Supermarket reported that its cherry sales have reached nearly 300 million yuan, with a year-on-year sales volume increase of approximately 80% [3][8]. - The store has prepared two cabinets of cherries, with sales close to 1.5 million units at a single location [3]. Market Dynamics - The decline in cherry prices is attributed to high supply, reduced shipping times, and competitive pricing strategies from retailers [8][10]. - Yonghui's ability to lower prices ahead of the market by 7-10 days is linked to its established direct procurement system and pre-purchase strategies [8][10]. Supply Outlook - Chile is preparing for a cherry production of 131 million boxes (approximately 655,000 tons) for the 2025/26 season, with over 90% expected to be exported to China [9]. - However, the global export forecast has been revised down to approximately 110 million boxes (about 550,000 tons), a 12.1% decrease from the previous season due to adverse weather conditions [9][10]. Seasonal Expectations - The cherry sales season is expected to conclude earlier than usual, potentially before the Chinese New Year, with the last shipments anticipated to arrive about a week prior to the holiday [10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the competitive advantage of Qian Dama through its "community small store + daily clearance mechanism + warehouse and cold chain" model, which enhances supply stability and operational efficiency [3][24][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and identifies high-quality companies in high-growth sectors, recommending specific companies across various segments [6][37] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The retail and social service indices reported a decline of 1.47% and an increase of 1.53% respectively during the week of January 12-16, 2026 [5][13] - The internet e-commerce sector showed the highest growth, with a year-to-date increase of 11.18% [16][19] Company Highlights - Qian Dama has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on fresh food retail in the South China market, with a GMV of 9.8 billion yuan in 2024, significantly outperforming its competitors [24][25] - The company operates 2,983 stores, with 2,898 being franchise stores, contributing over 90% of its revenue [25][31] - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market positioning, including: - Chaohongji, expected to achieve a net profit of 436-533 million yuan in 2025, driven by brand upgrades and channel expansion [39][43] - Meilitiantian Medical Health, projected to see a revenue increase of 28.2% in FY2025H1 [39] - Zhou Dafu, focusing on product structure optimization and store upgrades [39] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end gold and fashion jewelry brands, recommending Chaohongji and Laopu Gold [6][37] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize retail companies adapting to trends and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][37] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands that meet emotional value and safety innovation, recommending Maogeping and Pola [6][37] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical beauty institutions, recommending Meilitiantian Medical Health and Aimeike [6][37]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - AI is identified as a core driver for activating new consumption growth points, aligning with policy directions and deeply penetrating consumer applications. It is seen as a key engine for expanding domestic demand under the dual drive of policy and market forces [2][12] - The State Council's meeting on January 16 emphasized the need to continue deepening consumption-boosting actions, highlighting the importance of integrating various policies to enhance residents' consumption motivation and support the development of new service consumption growth points [2][13] Industry Data Tracking - Online platforms: According to Guojin Digital Future Lab, the overall GMV of Tmall and JD.com in the fourth week of December increased by 49% year-on-year. The top five categories in terms of growth were books and audio-visual products, automobiles and bicycles, watches, toys, and shoes and bags [3][14] - Duty-free shopping: Data from the General Administration of Customs on January 14 indicated that from December 18 to January 10, the number of duty-free shoppers reached 585,000, with a total spending of 3.89 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 32.4% and 49.6% respectively [3][14] Market Review - In the week from January 12 to January 16, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index changed by -0.45%, +1.14%, -0.57%, +2.34%, and +2.37% respectively. The retail trade sector (Shenwan) saw a decline of 1.47%, ranking fourth among nine major consumption sectors [4][18] - Notable stock performances included Xinhua Department Store, Yiwang Yichuang, Sanjiang Shopping, Wukuang Development, and Jihong Co., which saw significant gains, while Dongbai Group, Baida Group, Central Mall, Cuiwei Co., and Yonghui Supermarket experienced declines [4][18] Investment Recommendations - For offline retail, it is suggested to focus on Yonghui Supermarket, which is adopting a model similar to that of Pang Donglai, emphasizing a selective retail approach that has the potential for long-term growth in the post-consumption era [6][26] - In the cross-border e-commerce sector, it is recommended to pay attention to leading brands with strong brand influence and product differentiation, as they are expected to show resilience in performance [6][27] - In the gold and jewelry sector, companies like Laoputang and Chaohongji are highlighted for their potential growth driven by high gold prices and product optimization strategies [6][27] - For online retail, Meituan is viewed positively due to its established user base and competitive advantages in delivery logistics [6][27] - China Duty Free Group is recommended as a key focus due to its leading position in the duty-free industry and the expected recovery in high-end consumption [6][27]

Core Insights - Yonghui officially launched the Yonghui Customized Premium Pasture 4.0 Pure Milk in collaboration with Mengniu, achieving over 1 million in sales within the first week across its nationwide stores [1] Group 1: Product Details - The Yonghui Customized Premium Pasture 4.0 Pure Milk is packaged in PET bottles, targeting family consumption and New Year stockpiling scenarios [4] - The product adheres to Yonghui's principle of "best quality at the same price, lowest price at the same quality," featuring high nutritional indicators of "4.0g/100mL quality milk protein" and "130mg/100mL native high calcium" [4] Group 2: Supply Chain and Innovation - Yonghui's efforts in product development involved deep engagement with the upstream supply chain, ensuring precise control over 17 dimensions from feeding and breeding to raw milk production [4] - The company utilized patented feeding technology to ensure that the protein and calcium content of the raw milk significantly exceeds ordinary levels [4] Group 3: Marketing and Consumer Engagement - Yonghui is building a new consumer touchpoint that integrates online and offline experiences [4] - The company collaborates with Mengniu and Douyin to establish a "brand + channel + platform" triadic linkage model, completing the transaction loop from online promotion to offline experience [4]

Group 1 - Chilean cherries are experiencing a sales peak, with fresh cherries being rapidly shipped to the Chinese market through dedicated sea routes [1] - Yonghui Supermarket has set up a cherry-themed interactive area in its Huadu District store, combining it with a winter sports experience to create an immersive shopping environment [1] - The Chilean Cherry Committee's director highlighted the expanding consumer base and the increasing normalization of cherry consumption [1] Group 2 - Yonghui Supermarket plans to enhance collaboration with the Chilean Fruit Exporters Association and other partners to ensure quality control throughout the supply chain [1] - During the New Year holiday, Yonghui Supermarket's sales of Chilean cherries reached nearly 50 million yuan [1] - The first batch of Chilean cherries for the current season arrived in early December 2025, with a shift in the main variety from Santina to Lapins, which is more visually appealing and durable [2] Group 3 - Yonghui Supermarket will focus on optimizing thematic displays and creating festive scenarios to promote cherry sales, including special gift boxes for the upcoming Spring Festival [2]