Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry, indicating a positive outlook for the mid-term [1]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing continued pressure, with a focus on quality over speed in growth. The recovery in demand is showing signs of being uneven, leading companies to prioritize prudent growth strategies [12][18]. - The high-end liquor segment is seeing stable pricing control, while the mid-range segment is under pressure, indicating a divergence in performance across different price tiers [1][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Demand Recovery and Quality Focus - The liquor sector's revenue for FY 2024 grew by 8.2% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 7.2%. For Q1 2025, revenue growth slowed to 2.3% and net profit to 2.6% [12][18]. - Consumer confidence remains weak, particularly in the mid to low-end segments, while high-end banquet consumption is showing signs of recovery from a low base [12][18]. 2. Revenue Trends - Revenue growth is gradually bottoming out, with increasing differentiation among companies. The high-end segment remains relatively stable, while the mid-range segment faces significant challenges [18][27]. - The report highlights that many liquor companies are tightening control over distributors and focusing on core products to drive sales [18][27]. 3. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for the liquor sector in FY 2024 was 82.93%, a slight increase from the previous year. However, many companies are facing pressure on their gross margins due to pricing and product mix challenges [2][3]. - Sales and management expense ratios have seen slight increases, indicating a cautious approach to spending amid a challenging market environment [2][3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading liquor companies are expected to show resilient growth, supported by effective channel management and digital tracking strategies. Companies like Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are recommended for their solid performance and valuation safety margins [3][12].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a decline in performance for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with pressure on liquor revenue, but an improvement in ton price and product structure is noted. The growth of the cave series is expected to be relatively leading, and the annual dividend rate is projected to increase slightly to 46% year-on-year. The company aims to maintain strategic focus and rational growth in 2025 [1]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 7.344 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.46%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.589 billion yuan, up 13.45% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 73.9%, an increase of 2.92 percentage points year-on-year. However, Q4 2024 saw a negative year-on-year growth rate [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.047 billion yuan, down 12.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 829 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year. The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 75.0%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 39.2%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Product and Regional Performance - The cave series, representing mid-to-high-end liquor, maintained relatively leading growth, with revenue of 5.713 billion yuan in 2024, up 14% year-on-year (volume +9%, price +4%), and a gross margin of 81.07%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year. Conversely, ordinary liquor revenue was 1.29 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year (volume -10%, price +3%) [3]. - Regionally, the company reported 5.093 billion yuan in revenue from within the province in 2024, up 13% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 1.909 billion yuan, up 1% year-on-year. The proportion of revenue from within the province increased to 72.7% [3]. Strategic Outlook - The company plans to continue a rational growth trajectory in 2025, with the product structure expected to be driven by the cave series. The dividend rate is projected to remain stable at around 46% for 2024, with a corresponding dividend yield of approximately 3.4% based on the closing price on April 30 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with revenue growth rates declining from double digits to single digits, and cash flow growth lagging behind revenue growth [1][2]. Fundamental Analysis - The white liquor industry achieved a total revenue of 427.218 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.38%, and a net profit of 166.805 billion yuan, up 7.41% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the industry reported revenues of 148.535 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.43%, and a net profit of 63.097 billion yuan, growing by 2.71% [2]. - Combining Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, the industry generated revenues of 247.491 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.11%, and a net profit of 98.491 billion yuan, up 0.86% [2]. - Revenue growth rates are highest for high-end liquor, followed by mid-range and then sub-high-end liquor, while net profit growth rates follow the same order [2]. Cash Flow and Prepayments - By the end of 2024, the industry had prepayments of 60.328 billion yuan, an increase of 18.601 billion yuan from Q3 2024 [3]. - In Q1 2025, prepayments decreased to 49.177 billion yuan, down 11.151 billion yuan from Q4 2024 [3]. - The operating cash flow net amount for the industry in 2024 was 148.331 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.72%, while cash received from sales was 465.847 billion yuan, growing by 6.25% [3]. - In Q1 2025, the operating cash flow net amount was 48.645 billion yuan, up 62.29%, with cash received from sales at 150.192 billion yuan, a 16.65% increase [3]. Valuation Analysis and Dividends - As of April 30, 2025, the absolute PE ratio for the white liquor sector was 19.7x, below the historical average of 30.6x since 2011 [4]. - The relative PE ratio compared to the Shanghai Composite Index was 1.39x, also below the historical average of 2.04x [4]. - Most companies in the sector increased their annual dividend rates in 2024, with dividend yields rising above 3% [4]. - The current valuation reflects market expectations of continued demand pressure, suggesting limited downside for leading brands if demand stabilizes [4]. Recommended Stocks - Key recommendations include Kweichow Moutai (600519), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809), Wuliangye (000858), Jinshiyuan (603369), and Yingjia Gongjiu (603198) [5].

Group 1 - Shede Liquor Industry announced an adjustment to its 2024 cash dividend total, with a proposed cash dividend of 4.3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 141.44 million yuan, which represents 40.91% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The company has repurchased 41.94 million shares, with 29.55 thousand shares repurchased recently, leading to a reduction in the total number of shares eligible for profit distribution [1] - The adjustment reflects compliance with regulations and aims to protect the rights of minority shareholders, enhancing the company's image and investor relations [1] Group 2 - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association is soliciting opinions on the "Ecological Baijiu" group standard proposed by Anhui Yingjia Gongjiu Co., which aims to enhance brand image and product premium capabilities [2] - The initiative reflects a trend towards ecological brewing among liquor companies, potentially benefiting the white liquor sector through industry standardization and consumer awareness of ecological quality [2] - This move indicates the industry's proactive exploration of quality improvement and sustainable development, which may boost market confidence [2] Group 3 - Bairun Co. reported that its liquor business has started generating a small amount of revenue since Q1 2025, indicating a successful product structure optimization and maintaining high gross margins [3] - The development of the liquor business represents a new growth point for the company, enhancing its profitability and market competitiveness [3] - This diversification into the liquor sector may attract market attention towards structural opportunities in the consumer sector amid trends of consumption upgrading [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the Chinese consumer staples sector is generally positive, with multiple companies rated as "Outperform" [1]. Core Insights - In April 2025, five out of eight tracked industries maintained positive growth, two experienced negative growth, and one remained flat. The sectors with single-digit growth include dairy, food and beverage, soft drinks, condiments, and frozen foods. The declining sectors are mass and below liquor and sub-high-end and above liquor, while the beer industry remained flat. Compared to the previous month, six industries showed improved growth rates, while two saw a deterioration. Overall demand has not significantly increased or decreased [10][34]. Summary by Category Liquor Industry - **Sub-high-end and above liquor**: In April, revenue was 26.4 billion yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January to April was 167 billion yuan, up 0.3% year-on-year. Inventory levels increased as demand entered a low season [4][14]. - **Mass and below liquor**: Revenue in April was 15 billion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year, marking 15 consecutive months of negative growth. Cumulative revenue for January to April was 75.2 billion yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year [16]. Beer Industry - Revenue in April was 14 billion yuan, flat compared to the same period last year. Cumulative revenue for January to April was 60.6 billion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year. The industry is preparing for the upcoming sales season with low inventory levels [5][19]. Condiments - Revenue in April was 36.3 billion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for January to April at 155.4 billion yuan, growing 1.3% year-on-year. The industry is experiencing weak sales due to external consumption pressures [21]. Dairy Products - Revenue in April was 33.6 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, while cumulative revenue for January to April was 156 billion yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year. The industry showed positive growth due to a low base effect from the previous year [23]. Frozen Foods - Revenue in April was 6.7 billion yuan, up 1.5% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for January to April at 43.1 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year. The industry faces challenges due to lower consumer spending and increased competition [25]. Soft Drinks - Revenue in April was 50 billion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for January to April at 235.6 billion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year. The industry is entering its peak season with intensified competition [27]. Restaurant Sector - Revenue for listed restaurant companies in April was 13.4 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for January to April at 57.1 billion yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year. The sector is seeing recovery, particularly in tea and Western fast food segments [29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company has shown a continuous upgrade in product structure, with a short-term slowdown in growth. The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 5.7 billion yuan, up 14% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 1.3 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year [2] - The company achieved a total revenue of 73.44 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 8% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 25.89 billion yuan, up 13% [8] - The company is expected to maintain growth due to strong demand in the domestic banquet consumption market and competitive advantages in the mid-range price segment [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024: 73.44 billion yuan, 2025E: 75.60 billion yuan, 2026E: 79.59 billion yuan, 2027E: 86.42 billion yuan [4] - Net profit projections are: 2024: 25.89 billion yuan, 2025E: 26.69 billion yuan, 2026E: 28.41 billion yuan, 2027E: 31.24 billion yuan [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: 2024: 3.24 yuan, 2025E: 3.34 yuan, 2026E: 3.55 yuan, 2027E: 3.91 yuan [4] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 13.57 in 2024 to 11.25 in 2027 [4] Product and Market Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 51 billion yuan from the domestic market, up 13% year-on-year, while revenue from the external market was 19 billion yuan, up 1% [2] - The company added 19 distributors in the domestic market but lost 27 in the external market in 2024 [2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 16.33 billion yuan from the domestic market, down 8%, and 3.29 billion yuan from the external market, down 30% [2]

Core Insights - Yingjia Gongjiu reported a revenue of 7.344 billion yuan for 2024, representing an 8.46% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, up 13.45% from the previous year [1][2] - The company set a revenue target of 8.064 billion yuan and a net profit target of 2.866 billion yuan for 2024, which were not met in the previous year [2] - The overall gross margin improved to 73.94%, an increase of 2.92 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - For 2024, Yingjia Gongjiu's revenue was 7.344 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan and a net asset value of 9.844 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.77% increase [1][2] - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with figures of 2.047 billion yuan and 0.829 billion yuan, respectively, marking decreases of 12.35% and 9.54% year-on-year [5] Product Segmentation - The mid-to-high-end liquor segment generated 5.713 billion yuan in revenue, a 13.76% increase, with a gross margin of 81.07% [3][4] - Ordinary liquor sales fell to 1.290 billion yuan, down 6.53%, but with an improved gross margin of 57.93% [3][4] Management and Compensation - The chairman of Yingjia Gongjiu, Ni Yongpei, has been in his position since 2003 and received a salary of 1.054 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a 14.8% increase from the previous year [7][8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Views - The current value of domestic demand is highlighted, with a focus on companies with strong financial reports and sustained fundamentals. New consumption trends favor snacks, while traditional consumption is recommended for companies showing signs of recovery. The report emphasizes the strategy of "fishing in the domestic demand safe haven" and suggests prioritizing leading companies in the industry [1][23] - The report indicates that the liquor sector is in a transitional year for 2025, with a focus on companies with good fundamentals or those undergoing effective reforms. The report also highlights investment opportunities in snack companies and seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors [1][2] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently at a low point, with the first quarter potentially being the lowest of the year. The report recommends focusing on brands with strong momentum and reasonable growth targets. The report suggests that the current external uncertainties, such as tariffs, enhance the value of domestic demand for liquor, potentially leading to a structural bull market in the sector [2][23] - Key recommendations include high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as regional brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu. The report also emphasizes the importance of "momentum continuation" and "low base recovery" strategies [2][23] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a rebound, with a focus on snack companies benefiting from category dividends and new product launches in membership stores. The report continues to recommend seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors, highlighting investment opportunities driven by retail transformation and cost cycles [1][27] - Recommended stocks include Salted Fish, Yili, Wanchen Group, Dongpeng Beverage, Qingdao Beer (A+H), Three Squirrels, and others [1][27] Performance Metrics - The liquor industry saw a revenue growth of 7.7% and a net profit growth of 7.56% in 2024. In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue growth of 1.8% and a net profit growth of 2.25%. The report suggests that the industry is currently in a bottom adjustment phase, with leading companies successfully navigating pressure tests [7][19] - Specific company performance includes Kweichow Moutai achieving a revenue of 514.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a growth of 10.67%, and a net profit of 268.47 billion yuan, a growth of 11.56% [17] Market Trends - The report notes that the overall valuation of the food and beverage industry has adjusted, with the industry trading at 21.79 times earnings. The liquor sector's valuation is at 19.69 times, while beer and wine are at 27.67 and 74.88 times, respectively [39] - The report also tracks price trends for key liquor brands, indicating stability in prices for Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [22][54]

Group 1 - The overall performance of the liquor industry shows a deceleration in earnings, with leading brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu demonstrating strong stability and brand power [1][2] - Beer companies are actively managing inventory during the off-season, with some experiencing rapid sales growth in the first quarter [1] - Stocks of companies with significantly lower-than-expected earnings, such as Yanghe and Jinjidongjiu, have seen declines, with W迎驾贡酒 experiencing a sharp drop in stock price, reaching a two-year low [1][4] Group 2 - The white liquor index has experienced a continuous decline, with a cumulative drop of 4.76% in April, reflecting market expectations of a bottoming phase for the industry [2] - Most liquor companies have set conservative growth targets for 2025, with Moutai aiming for a revenue increase of around 9% and Jiuzhou aiming for a 5% to 12% increase [2] - The performance of non-white liquor companies, such as Dynasty and Budweiser APAC, has been strong, with significant weekly stock price increases [2][6][7] Group 3 - The performance of W迎驾贡酒 has been particularly poor, with a 4-month decline of 18.85%, significantly higher than other companies in the sector [4] - W迎驾贡酒's 2024 revenue was 7.344 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.46%, but this growth is below the company's previous targets and expectations [8] - Concerns have been raised about W迎驾贡酒's declining performance in recent quarters, with significant drops in both revenue and net profit [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yingjia Gongjiu, reported steady growth in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2024, despite a challenging market environment for the liquor industry, indicating a strong performance relative to peers [1][6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yingjia Gongjiu achieved revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.46% [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.589 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.45% [1][2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.047 billion yuan, a decline of 12.35% compared to the same period last year [3][8]. - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 828 million yuan, down 9.54% year-on-year [3][8]. Product Structure and Market Performance - The product structure has been optimized, with mid-to-high-end liquor accounting for 81.59% of total revenue [5][6]. - In 2024, revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 5.712 billion yuan, up 13.76%, while revenue from ordinary liquor decreased by 6.53% to 1.290 billion yuan [6][7]. - The domestic market generated 5.093 billion yuan in revenue, a growth of 12.75%, while the external market saw a modest increase of 1.31% to 1.909 billion yuan [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to focus on innovation-driven industrial upgrades, enhancing production processes and increasing the quality of its products [10][12]. - Cultural empowerment will be leveraged to deepen brand value, with a focus on the "Cultural Yingjia" strategy [10][12]. - Marketing resilience will be strengthened through organizational optimization and expansion into e-commerce and B2C sales models [10][12][14]. - Lean management practices will be implemented to enhance internal motivation and cost control [14].