Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue is impacted by series liquor and external provincial drag [7] - Profitability is driven by structural upgrades, enhancing profit margins [8] - The quality of financial statements shows a decline in revenue and cash collection due to intensified competition [9] - The company is expected to maintain strong momentum in its cave-aged series, contributing to ongoing product structure upgrades despite short-term challenges [12] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.047 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.35% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 829 million yuan, down 9.54% [11] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, an increase of 8.46%, and a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, up 13.45% [11] - The company's gross margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 76.5% in Q1 2025, primarily due to product structure upgrades [11] - The forecast for 2025-2027 anticipates revenue growth to 7.405 billion yuan, 7.910 billion yuan, and 8.514 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 2.634 billion yuan, 2.865 billion yuan, and 3.138 billion yuan [12][14] Product and Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary liquor decreased by 8.6% and 32.1% respectively, while the proportion of mid-to-high-end liquor in total revenue increased by 3.6 percentage points to 87.7% [11] - The company’s performance in its home province was better than in external markets, with provincial revenue declining by 7.7% compared to a 29.7% drop in external revenue [11] Profitability Metrics - The report indicates that the company's net profit margin improved by 1.2 percentage points to 40.5% in Q1 2025, driven by an increase in gross margin [11] - The forecasted gross margins for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 74.5%, 75.2%, and 75.8% respectively, reflecting ongoing improvements in product mix [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue is impacted by series liquor and external provincial drag [7] - Profitability is driven by structural upgrades, enhancing the company's profit margins [8] - The report indicates a decline in revenue and cash collection due to intensified competition in the market [9] - The company is expected to maintain strong momentum in its cave-aged series, contributing to ongoing product structure upgrades despite short-term challenges [12] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.047 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.35% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 829 million yuan, down 9.54% [11] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, an increase of 8.46%, with a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, up 13.45% [11] - The company's gross margin improved to 76.5% in Q1 2025, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product structure upgrades [11] - The report projects revenue for 2025-2027 to be 7.405 billion, 7.910 billion, and 8.514 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.634 billion, 2.865 billion, and 3.138 billion yuan [12][14] Product and Regional Performance - In Q1 2025, revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary liquor decreased by 8.6% and 32.1% respectively, with mid-to-high-end liquor accounting for 87.7% of total liquor revenue [11] - The company’s performance in its home province was better than in external markets, with provincial revenue declining by 7.7% compared to a 29.7% drop in external revenue [11] Profitability Metrics - The report indicates that the company's net profit margin improved to 40.5% in Q1 2025, driven by an increase in gross margin [11] - The projected gross margins for 2025-2027 are 74.5%, 75.2%, and 75.8% respectively, reflecting ongoing improvements in product mix [14] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 13, 12, and 11 respectively, supporting the "Buy" rating [12]

华安证券（600909）股份有限公司邓欣,郑少轩近期对迎驾贡酒（603198）进行研究并发布了研究报告《迎驾贡酒24 年报&25Q1点评：系列酒与省外拖累》，给予迎驾贡酒买入评级。 迎驾贡酒 主要观点： 公司发布2024年报及25Q1季报： 25Q1：收入20.47亿元(-12.35%)，归母净利润8.29亿元(-9.54%)，扣非归母净利润8.16亿元(-9.48%)。 24Q4：收入18.30亿元(-5.00%)，归母净利润5.83亿元(-4.91%)，扣非归母净利润5.69亿元(-8.42%)。 25Q1：分产品结构，公司中高档/普通酒营收分别同比下降8.6%/32.1%，中高档酒占比白酒营收同比提升3.6pct至 87.7%。其中，洞藏系列预计同比实现双位数增长，金星/银星同比大双位数下滑，形成拖累。分区域看，省内/省外 营收分别同比下降7.7%/29.7%，省内占比白酒营收同比提升4.2pct至83.2%，省内表现好于省外。?24年：分产品结 构，公司中高档/普通酒营收分别同比+13.8%/-6.5%，中高档酒占比白酒营收同比提升3.1pct至81.6%。其中，中高档 酒销量/吨价分别同比增长9.3 ...

Group 1: Core Views - The recent upgrades in stock ratings by brokerages are primarily concentrated in sectors with significant performance growth, rising industry sentiment, or turnaround situations, particularly in AI and robotics [2][5] - The number of stocks downgraded by brokerages has reached a year-to-date high, with notable downgrades in the coal and tourism sectors [5][6] Group 2: Upgraded Stocks - Multiple stocks in the AI and robotics sectors have received rating upgrades, including: - Platinum New Materials, with a projected net profit of 376 million yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 46.9% [2] - Huichang Communications, expected to achieve a net profit of 29 million yuan in 2024, turning profitable with a 12.28% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 [2] - Beijing Junzheng, with Q1 revenue of 1.06 billion yuan, a 5.3% year-on-year increase, and anticipated market recovery [3] - Keli Sensor, reporting a net profit of 76 million yuan in Q1, a nearly 76% year-on-year increase [3] - Nanshan Zhishang, recognized for its leading position in domestic wool spinning and new materials applications [3][4] Group 3: Downgraded Stocks - Several coal stocks have been downgraded, including: - Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingmei Shenma, downgraded to "overweight" due to weak coking coal prices [5] - Shanmei International, also downgraded to "overweight" despite low mining costs and potential production increases [5] - The tourism sector has seen downgrades, such as: - Jinjiang Hotels, with a Q1 net profit of 36 million yuan, down 81% year-on-year [5] - Miao Exhibition, downgraded due to declining revenue amid intensified competition [6] Group 4: Market Outlook - Brokerages are optimistic about AI and high-dividend sectors for May, with expectations of a continued oscillating market [7] - Recommendations include focusing on three main directions: financial dividends, self-sufficiency in industries like military, and domestic consumption [7] - The market is expected to follow a gentle recovery path, with attention on cyclical sectors and growth styles, particularly in AI and robotics [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 57.29 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 17 times the earnings for 2025 [3][11]. Core Views - Short-term growth is under pressure, but the company is expected to achieve healthy long-term growth [2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward for 2025-2026 while raising gross margin and expense ratios [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.37 CNY, 3.91 CNY, and 4.46 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 6,771 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 23.0%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to be 7,344 million CNY, reflecting an 8.5% growth [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 2,282 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 33.9%. The forecast for 2024 is 2,589 million CNY, a growth of 13.4% [8]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 73.9%, up from 71.0% in 2023, indicating an improvement in profitability [10][8]. Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, the company expects mid-to-high-end liquor revenue to reach 57.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. However, ordinary liquor revenue is projected to decline by 6.5% to 12.9 billion CNY [10]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 20.5 billion CNY, down 12.3% year-on-year, primarily due to an earlier Spring Festival and weak consumer demand [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a total of 1,379 distributors as of Q1 2025, indicating stable channel management [10]. - The company’s regional performance shows that domestic market revenue is 50.9 billion CNY, growing by 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province is 19.1 billion CNY, with a modest growth of 1.3% [10].

Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 7.34 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.59 billion yuan, up 13.4% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per share, totaling 1.2 billion yuan, which accounts for 46.3% of the net profit for the period [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.83 billion yuan, down 5.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 580 million yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 2.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 830 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Product Performance - The company's Dongcang series showed steady performance, with revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reaching 5.71 billion yuan in 2024, up 13.8% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 1.29 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 1.72 billion yuan, down 8.6% year-on-year, and ordinary liquor revenue was 240 million yuan, down 32.1% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Regional Performance - In 2024, revenue from the domestic market was 5.09 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from the external market was 1.91 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, domestic revenue was 1.63 billion yuan, down 7.7% year-on-year, and external revenue was 330 million yuan, down 29.7% year-on-year [2] Group 4: Profitability and Cash Flow - The company's gross margin improved by 2.6 percentage points to 73.9% in 2024, driven by the increased proportion of Dongcang series sales [3] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin further increased by 1.4 percentage points to 76.5%, with a net profit margin of 40.6%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Cash receipts from sales in Q1 2025 were 2.21 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year, indicating temporary cash flow pressure [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The Dongcang series is expected to continue its growth trend, with the company planning to enhance its efforts in cultivating the external market and increasing resource allocation for its products [4] - The company forecasts EPS for 2025-2027 to be 3.27 yuan, 3.50 yuan, and 3.80 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14x, 13x, and 12x [4] - A target price of 55.59 yuan is set for 2025, based on a 17x PE ratio, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.34 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.59 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.05 billion yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 830 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company recorded a revenue of 1.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.0%, and a net profit of 580 million yuan, down 4.9% [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per share, totaling 1.2 billion yuan, which accounts for 46.35% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] - The dividend yield is estimated at 3.1% based on the market capitalization as of April 28, 2025 [1] Product and Market Analysis - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 5.71 billion yuan, an increase of 13.8% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 1.29 billion yuan, down 6.5% [2] - For Q1 2025, mid-to-high-end liquor revenue decreased by 8.6%, and ordinary liquor revenue fell by 32.1%, attributed to the early Spring Festival, weak consumption, and proactive destocking [2] - The company's revenue from the domestic market was 5.09 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 1.91 billion yuan, up 1.3% [2] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 73.9%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from improved product mix [3] - For Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 76.5%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expense ratio and management expense ratio increasing slightly [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 35.3%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, and for Q1 2025, it was 40.6%, also up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Based on the Q1 2025 report, revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been lowered, while gross margin and expense ratios have been adjusted upwards [4] - The projected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.37 yuan, 3.91 yuan, and 4.46 yuan, respectively [4] - The company is considered to have a reasonable valuation level of 17 times the price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, with a target price of 57.29 yuan, maintaining a buy rating [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 57.29 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 17 times the earnings for 2025 [3][11]. Core Views - Short-term growth is under pressure, but the company is expected to achieve healthy long-term growth [2]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward for 2025-2026 while raising gross margin and expense ratios [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.37 CNY, 3.91 CNY, and 4.46 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 6,771 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 23.0%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to be 7,344 million CNY, reflecting an 8.5% growth [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 2,282 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 33.9%. The forecast for 2024 is 2,589 million CNY, a growth of 13.4% [8]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 73.9%, up from 71.0% in 2023, indicating an improvement in profitability [10][8]. Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, the company expects mid-to-high-end liquor revenue to reach 57.1 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. However, ordinary liquor revenue is projected to decline by 6.5% to 12.9 billion CNY [10]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 20.5 billion CNY, down 12.3% year-on-year, primarily due to an earlier Spring Festival and weak consumer demand [10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has a total of 1,379 distributors as of Q1 2025, indicating stable channel management [10]. - The company’s regional performance shows that domestic market revenue is 50.9 billion CNY, growing by 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province is 19.1 billion CNY, with a modest growth of 1.3% [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 7.344 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.589 billion yuan, up 13.45% year-on-year [5][7] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 2.047 billion yuan, down 12.35% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.829 billion yuan, down 9.54% year-on-year [5][7] - The company’s high-end product series continues to show strong momentum in Anhui province, although performance has been slightly pressured due to low-priced liquor and challenges in the out-of-province market [7][8] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's stock performance over the last year shows a decline of 36.9%, compared to a 4.6% increase in the CSI 300 index [3] - As of April 30, 2025, the current stock price is 43.92 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 35.136 billion yuan [3] Financial Highlights - In 2024, the company’s mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 5.713 billion yuan, up 13.76% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 1.290 billion yuan, down 6.53% year-on-year [7] - For Q1 2025, mid-to-high-end liquor revenue was 1.720 billion yuan, down 8.57% year-on-year, and ordinary liquor revenue was 0.242 billion yuan, down 32.09% year-on-year [7] - The company’s gross profit margin increased to 73.94% in 2024, up 2.57 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the higher margin of the high-end product series [7] Future Projections - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7.447 billion yuan, 7.826 billion yuan, and 8.484 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 2.651 billion yuan, 2.818 billion yuan, and 3.063 billion yuan [8][9] - The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 3.31 yuan, 3.52 yuan, and 3.83 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yingjia Gongjiu, reported a decline in performance in Q1 2025 after several years of double-digit growth, raising concerns about its ability to maintain growth in a challenging market environment [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Yingjia Gongjiu achieved revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.589 billion yuan, up 13.45% [2][3]. - However, in Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.047 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.35% year-on-year, and a net profit of 829 million yuan, down 9.54% [5][6]. Group 2: Market Strategy - Yingjia Gongjiu has focused on the mid-to-high-end liquor market, with significant revenue growth in this segment over the past few years. The revenue growth rates for mid-to-high-end liquor from 2021 to 2024 were 44.72%, 27.59%, 27.84%, and 13.76%, respectively [4][6]. - The company has optimized its product structure by categorizing products into mid-to-high-end and ordinary liquor, with the former accounting for an increasing share of total revenue, rising from 71.52% in 2021 to 81.58% in 2024 [4][6]. Group 3: Regional Performance - The revenue from Anhui province has been a significant driver of growth for Yingjia Gongjiu, with provincial revenue growth rates of 36.79%, 25.65%, and 31.51% from 2021 to 2023, leading to an increase in provincial revenue share from 63.5% in 2021 to 70.57% in 2023 [8][9]. - In 2024, the company's revenue from Anhui was 5.093 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.75%, while revenue from outside the province was only 1.909 billion yuan, growing by just 1.31% [9]. Group 4: Inventory and Competition - As of December 31, 2024, Yingjia Gongjiu had a high inventory level, with a book value of 5.043 billion yuan, accounting for 37.67% of total assets and 51.15% of current assets, indicating a need for inventory management [10]. - The company faces intensified competition in the liquor industry, which has led to a slowdown in revenue growth, prompting concerns about its ability to maintain its market position [10].