Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant slowdown in growth, with many companies reporting declining revenues and profits, indicating a challenging market environment [1][2][8]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of April 29, nearly all listed white liquor companies reported a slowdown in performance for the 2024 annual report and the first quarter of 2025, with six companies experiencing a year-on-year revenue decline [1][2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, nearly half of the white liquor companies reported negative performance, with some experiencing revenue declines of 20% to 30% [1][8]. - The total revenue of all white liquor companies in 2024 exceeded 440 billion yuan, primarily driven by growth from leading companies like Moutai [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape of the white liquor industry has shifted, with Shanxi Fenjiu rising to the third position among leading brands, indicating a consolidation of the market among top players [2][5]. - The top ten white liquor companies have seen significant changes in rankings over the past five years, with new entrants and established brands experiencing shifts in their market positions [6][7]. - The performance of mid-sized and smaller liquor companies has generally been poor, with some facing delisting risks due to continued underperformance [2][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the white liquor industry is currently in a "bottoming out" phase, with expectations of continued low performance in the second quarter of 2025 [2][13]. - The industry faces challenges in consumer demand, particularly in attracting younger consumers, which is crucial for future growth [12][13]. - Despite some companies maintaining double-digit growth, the overall market sentiment remains pessimistic, with concerns about the sustainability of this growth amid macroeconomic uncertainties [12][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 60.12 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.34 billion RMB for 2024, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.59 billion RMB, up 13.4% year-on-year. However, the Q1 2025 performance was below expectations due to intensified competition and weaker sales in the liquor market [1][4]. - The company is focusing on the mid-to-high-end liquor segment, particularly the "洞藏" series, which has seen a 13.8% increase in sales revenue for 2024. The strategy includes strengthening the domestic market while gradually expanding into external markets [1][2]. - The gross margin improved to 73.9% in 2024, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure upgrades. The net profit margin also increased to 35.3% in 2024 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.34 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%. The net profit was 2.59 billion RMB, reflecting a 13.4% increase. However, Q4 2024 revenue decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, and Q1 2025 revenue dropped by 12.4% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor sales accounted for 87.7% of its liquor business revenue, with a notable increase in the "洞藏" series [2]. Market Strategy - The company is implementing a "Cultural Welcoming" strategy, focusing on the mid-to-high-end "洞藏" series and enhancing its market presence in Anhui while expanding into other provinces [1][4]. - The number of distributors increased to 1,377, with 751 in the domestic market and 626 in external markets, indicating ongoing efforts to strengthen channel infrastructure [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.9%, and it improved to 76.5% in Q1 2025. The net profit margin also saw an increase to 40.5% in Q1 2025 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 3.34 RMB, with a target price based on a 18x PE ratio, leading to a target price of 60.12 RMB [4][6].

公 司 报 告 食品饮料 2025年04月29日 迎驾贡酒(603198.SH) 核心聚焦洞藏，底盘产品出清 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:48.79元 主要数据 | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.yingjia.cn | | 大股东/持股 | 安徽迎驾集团股份有限公司/72.22% | | 实际控制人 | 倪永培 | | 总股本(百万股) | 800 | | 流通A股(百万股) | 800 | | 流通B/H股(百万股) | | | 总市值(亿元) | 390 | | 流通A股市值(亿元) | 390 | | 每股净资产(元) | 13.34 | | 资产负债率(%) | 22.7 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）*季报点评*收 入稳定增长，省内基本盘稳固*推荐20241029 【平安证券】迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）*半年报点评 *2Q延续增势，利润表现亮眼*推荐20240818 王萌 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522030001 WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 王星云 投资咨询资格编号 S10605 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.34 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and a net profit of 2.59 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year. The Q1 2025 revenue was 2.05 billion yuan, down 12.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 829 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year. The performance in Q1 2025 was below expectations [4][5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, with a total cash dividend of 1.2 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 46.4% [4] - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 due to demand pressure, with projected net profits of 2.40 billion, 2.54 billion, and 2.72 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year changes of -7.4%, 6.0%, and 7.1% respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 7.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.5%. The net profit is expected to be 2.59 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.5% [6] - The Q1 2025 revenue is expected to be 6.80 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 7.5%. The net profit is projected at 2.40 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 73.9%, with a net margin of 35.3%, reflecting an increase in product mix improvement [8] Product and Regional Performance - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor is expected to reach 5.71 billion yuan, growing 13.8% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue is projected at 1.29 billion yuan, down 6.53% year-on-year [7] - The company’s revenue from the domestic market is expected to be 5.09 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province is projected at 1.91 billion yuan, growing 1.31% year-on-year [7] Cash Flow and Liabilities - The operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to be 1.91 billion yuan, down 13.2% year-on-year, primarily due to increased tax payments [8] - The company’s contract liabilities at the end of 2024 are projected to be 578 million yuan, reflecting an increase from the previous year [8]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices experienced slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.05%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.13%. The North Star 50 Index, however, rose by 1.24% [1] - The total market turnover was 1.0417 trillion yuan, a decrease of 35 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3,500 stocks rising across the market [1] Sector Performance - The PEEK materials, beauty care, chemical products, humanoid robots, and agricultural machinery sectors saw the largest gains, while the electricity, insurance, liquor, port shipping, controllable nuclear fusion, and coal sectors experienced the most significant declines [2] - Notable stocks included PEEK materials concept stocks such as Juyuan Long (301131), Xinhang New Materials (301076), and Zhongxin Fluorine Materials (002915), which all hit the daily limit [2] - The beauty care sector saw strong afternoon performance with stocks like Marubi Biotechnology (603983) hitting the daily limit, while other notable gainers included Babi Co., Jinbo Biological, and Shanghai Jahwa (600315) [2] Stock Highlights - Step by Step (002251) and Maoye Commercial (600828) both achieved a "limit-up" performance in the afternoon, showcasing significant market interest [2] - The electricity sector faced a downturn, with stocks like Shaanxi Energy (000601), Leshan Electric Power (600644), and Xichang Electric Power (600505) hitting the daily limit down [2] - The liquor sector also lagged, with Yingjia Gongjiu (603198) hitting the daily limit down, and other major players like Yanghe Brewery (002304) and Gujing Gongjiu (000596) showing significant declines [2] Notable Trends - The "hot stock list" featured companies like Step by Step, Hongbaoli, and Maoye Commercial, with respective gains of 4.15%, 5.81%, and 10.02% [7] - The "strong wind direction list" highlighted sectors such as new energy vehicles, chemical products, and robotics, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [11][12][13] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 340.5 billion yuan for a 7-day term at an interest rate of 1.50% to maintain liquidity in the banking system [32] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that China's service trade totaled 19,741.8 billion yuan in the first quarter, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [33]

白酒股午后震荡走弱，迎驾贡酒（603198）触及跌停，洋河股份（002304）跌超4%，今世缘 （603369）、古井贡酒（000596）、山西汾酒（600809）纷纷下挫。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 8.5% in 2024, with a total revenue of 73.4 billion yuan and a net profit of 25.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.4% increase [7] - The company is experiencing a slowdown in mid-to-low-end liquor sales, while the "Dòngcáng" series continues to show strong growth potential [7] - The report indicates that the company is adjusting its product offerings to clear out low-end items, which has led to a significant decline in sales for lower-tier products [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 7,344 million yuan in 2024, 7,378 million yuan in 2025, 7,862 million yuan in 2026, and 8,685 million yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 8.46%, 0.46%, 6.57%, and 10.47% [1] - The net profit forecast is set at 2,589 million yuan for 2024, 2,617 million yuan for 2025, 2,842 million yuan for 2026, and 3,205 million yuan for 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.45%, 1.06%, 8.60%, and 12.77% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.24 yuan in 2024, 3.27 yuan in 2025, 3.55 yuan in 2026, and 4.01 yuan in 2027 [1] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 15.07 for 2024, 14.92 for 2025, 13.73 for 2026, and 12.18 for 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yingjia Gongjiu, reported a total operating revenue of 7.344 billion yuan for 2024, marking an increase of 624 million yuan or 8.46% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.589 billion yuan, up 13.45% year-on-year [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 15 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.2 billion yuan [1] - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 5.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.76%, with a gross margin of 81.07%, up 1.83 percentage points [2] - The company achieved double-digit growth in both revenue and net profit for three consecutive years from 2021 to 2023, with revenue increasing from 4.577 billion yuan to 6.72 billion yuan and net profit from 1.382 billion yuan to 2.288 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The company is focusing on the mid-to-high-end liquor market, with the proportion of mid-to-high-end liquor revenue increasing from approximately 78.44% in 2023 to 81.59% in 2024 [1][2] - The domestic market remains the primary sales area for the company, with domestic revenue of 5.093 billion yuan in 2024, up 12.75% year-on-year, while the external market revenue was 1.909 billion yuan, up only 1.31% [2][3] - The company aims to strengthen its market presence in core areas such as Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shanghai, while expanding into central and northern China [3] Group 3: Strategic Focus - The "Dongcang" series is the company's main product line, targeting various price segments to enhance sales [3] - The company acknowledges challenges in the mid-to-high-end liquor segment, with a decline in revenue for both mid-to-high-end and ordinary liquor in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - The industry is experiencing deep adjustments, with intensified competition and a shift in consumer preferences towards quality upgrades and brand resilience [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 8.5% for the full year 2024, with a net profit increase of 13.4%. However, the growth rates for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 were below market expectations due to significant declines in sales of lower-tier products [7] - The company’s high-end product line, particularly the "洞藏" series, continues to grow rapidly, while the mid-to-low-end products are showing signs of fatigue [7] - The company is actively managing its cash flow and inventory to ensure healthy channel profits and turnover [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 6,771 million, projected to be 7,344 million in 2024, and 7,378 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 22.99%, 8.46%, and 0.46% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 2,282 million, expected to rise to 2,589 million in 2024 and 2,617 million in 2025, reflecting growth rates of 33.85%, 13.45%, and 1.06% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 3.24 in 2024 and 3.27 in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 15.07 and 14.92 respectively [1] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities is expected to increase significantly from 1,907 million in 2024 to 3,926 million in 2025 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Yingjia Gongjiu has significantly declined, leading to a sharp drop in stock price, raising concerns among investors [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Yingjia Gongjiu reported revenue of 7.344 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.589 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year [4]. - The company's growth rate has slowed compared to previous years, where it had consistently achieved over 20% growth [4]. - The original operating targets for 2024 were set at 8.064 billion yuan in revenue and 2.866 billion yuan in net profit [4]. Product Structure and Market Position - The product structure has continued to upgrade, with mid-to-high-end liquor generating revenue of 5.713 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, while ordinary liquor revenue fell by 6.5% to 1.29 billion yuan [4]. - The growth of mid-to-high-end liquor has noticeably slowed, with year-on-year growth rates of 44.7%, 27.6%, and 27.8% from 2021 to 2023 [4][7]. Expense Trends - Sales expenses increased by 14.18% year-on-year, significantly outpacing revenue growth, indicating intensified competition in the liquor industry [7]. Recent Quarterly Performance - In Q1 2025, Yingjia Gongjiu's revenue was 2.047 billion yuan, a decline of 12.4% year-on-year, and net profit was 829 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year, marking a return to negative growth after five years [8]. Contract Liabilities - Contract liabilities have decreased, with a balance of 578 million yuan at the end of last year, down nearly 27%, and further declining to 457 million yuan by the end of March, a year-on-year decrease of about 11% [9]. Market Reaction - Multiple public funds have reduced their holdings in Yingjia Gongjiu, with notable reductions from Huatai-PineBridge and E Fund [9]. - As of April 29, the stock price was 44.7 yuan per share, down 8.38%, reaching a new low for the year, with a market capitalization of approximately 35.7 billion yuan [9].