作 者丨肖夏 编 辑丨骆一帆 截至4月2 9日晚，白酒股2 0 2 4年年报、2 0 2 5年一季报全部披露。 2 1世纪经济报道记者梳理注意到，几乎所有白酒上市公司去年业绩增长都出现放缓，其中有 六家酒企去年营收同比倒退，覆盖不同体量的酒企，能实现两位数增长的白酒已经屈指可数。 同时披露的2 0 2 5年一季报更为惨淡， 各家白酒股业绩增速进一步下滑，其中近一半业绩出现 倒退，多家出现2 0%、3 0%的大幅下滑。 一位资深白酒投资者评价，"当前白酒迎来了极寒天气。" 行业深度调整反馈到报表端之际，白酒企业的竞争格局也发生了重要变化。 2 1 世 纪 经 济 报 道 记 者 梳 理 注 意 到 ， 头 部 白 酒 中 ， 山西 汾酒正式跃升至第三 ， 三 大 香 型龙头实现聚首；白酒股前十中，对比五年前有两家是新面孔， 一些名酒被挤到二三 梯队 ；中小白酒业绩普遍低迷， 新增两家酒企披星戴帽，离退市再近一步 。 综合接受2 1世纪经济报道记者采访的券商分析师、行业专家观点来看，观察人士普遍认为当 前白酒处于探底阶段，今年二季度淡季预计继续低迷，但整个探底阶段会持续多久，难以判 断。 汾酒正式跻身前三，前十位 ...

Group 1: Market Developments - Jiang Jia led a team to investigate the UAE market, emphasizing the importance of the region for Wuliangye's strategic layout and future efforts in channel construction and brand promotion [1] - Xifeng Wine held a business meeting to deploy strategies for the Jiangsu market, highlighting its strong development foundation [1] - Yunmen Wine established a liaison office in Japan and an Osaka tasting center, marking a significant step in its internationalization strategy [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 36.011 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, with a net profit of 12.243 billion, up 17.29% [1] - Yanghe Co. achieved a revenue of 28.876 billion in 2024, with a net profit of 6.673 billion [1] - Yingjia Gongjiu's revenue for 2024 was 7.344 billion, up 8.46%, with a net profit increase of 13.45% to 2.589 billion [1] - Kouzi Jiao reported a revenue of 6.015 billion in 2024, a slight increase of 0.89%, but a net profit decrease of 3.83% to 1.655 billion [1] - Yilite's revenue for 2024 was 2.203 billion, down 1.27%, with a net profit decline of 15.91% to 0.286 billion [1] - Jiugui Wine's revenue fell to 1.423 billion in 2024, a decrease of 49.70%, with a net profit drop of 97.72% to 0.012 billion [1][2] - Jinzongzi Wine reported a revenue of 0.925 billion in 2024, down 37.04%, resulting in a net loss of 0.258 billion [2] Group 3: Industry Standards and Sustainability - The national standard for "Rice Aroma Type Baijiu" was released, indicating regulatory developments in the industry [3] - New Zealand's wine industry reported significant sustainability achievements, with 68% of wineries implementing carbon reduction measures, reflecting a growing trend towards environmental responsibility [4]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant slowdown in growth, with many companies reporting declining revenues and profits, indicating a challenging market environment [1][12][18]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of April 29, nearly all listed white liquor companies reported a slowdown in performance for 2024, with six companies experiencing a year-on-year revenue decline [1][4]. - In the first quarter of 2025, nearly half of the white liquor companies reported negative performance, with some experiencing revenue declines of 20% to 30% [1][12]. - The total revenue of all white liquor companies in 2024 exceeded 440 billion yuan, primarily driven by growth from leading companies like Moutai [4][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape of the white liquor industry has shifted, with Shanxi Fenjiu rising to the third position among leading brands, indicating a consolidation of market power among top players [2][8]. - Over the past five years, the rankings of the top ten white liquor companies have changed significantly, with new entrants and established brands experiencing shifts in their market positions [10][11]. - The performance of mid-sized and smaller liquor companies has generally been poor, with some facing delisting risks [2][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the white liquor industry is currently in a "bottoming out" phase, with expectations of continued low performance in the second quarter of 2025 [2][17]. - The core issue facing the industry is weak consumer demand, with a need for companies to connect with younger consumers and explore new market segments [18].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant slowdown in growth, with many companies reporting declining revenues and profits, indicating a challenging market environment [1][2][8]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of April 29, nearly all listed white liquor companies reported a slowdown in performance for the 2024 annual report and the first quarter of 2025, with six companies experiencing a year-on-year revenue decline [1][2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, nearly half of the white liquor companies reported negative performance, with some experiencing revenue declines of 20% to 30% [1][8]. - The total revenue of all white liquor companies in 2024 exceeded 440 billion yuan, primarily driven by growth from leading companies like Moutai [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape of the white liquor industry has shifted, with Shanxi Fenjiu rising to the third position among leading brands, indicating a consolidation of the market among top players [2][5]. - The top ten white liquor companies have seen significant changes in rankings over the past five years, with new entrants and established brands experiencing shifts in their market positions [6][7]. - The performance of mid-sized and smaller liquor companies has generally been poor, with some facing delisting risks due to continued underperformance [2][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the white liquor industry is currently in a "bottoming out" phase, with expectations of continued low performance in the second quarter of 2025 [2][13]. - The industry faces challenges in consumer demand, particularly in attracting younger consumers, which is crucial for future growth [12][13]. - Despite some companies maintaining double-digit growth, the overall market sentiment remains pessimistic, with concerns about the sustainability of this growth amid macroeconomic uncertainties [12][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 60.12 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.34 billion RMB for 2024, representing an 8.5% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.59 billion RMB, up 13.4% year-on-year. However, the Q1 2025 performance was below expectations due to intensified competition and weaker sales in the liquor market [1][4]. - The company is focusing on the mid-to-high-end liquor segment, particularly the "洞藏" series, which has seen a 13.8% increase in sales revenue for 2024. The strategy includes strengthening the domestic market while gradually expanding into external markets [1][2]. - The gross margin improved to 73.9% in 2024, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure upgrades. The net profit margin also increased to 35.3% in 2024 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.34 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%. The net profit was 2.59 billion RMB, reflecting a 13.4% increase. However, Q4 2024 revenue decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, and Q1 2025 revenue dropped by 12.4% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor sales accounted for 87.7% of its liquor business revenue, with a notable increase in the "洞藏" series [2]. Market Strategy - The company is implementing a "Cultural Welcoming" strategy, focusing on the mid-to-high-end "洞藏" series and enhancing its market presence in Anhui while expanding into other provinces [1][4]. - The number of distributors increased to 1,377, with 751 in the domestic market and 626 in external markets, indicating ongoing efforts to strengthen channel infrastructure [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.9%, and it improved to 76.5% in Q1 2025. The net profit margin also saw an increase to 40.5% in Q1 2025 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 3.34 RMB, with a target price based on a 18x PE ratio, leading to a target price of 60.12 RMB [4][6].

公 司 报 告 食品饮料 2025年04月29日 迎驾贡酒(603198.SH) 核心聚焦洞藏，底盘产品出清 推荐 ( 维持) 股价:48.79元 主要数据 | 行业 | 食品饮料 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.yingjia.cn | | 大股东/持股 | 安徽迎驾集团股份有限公司/72.22% | | 实际控制人 | 倪永培 | | 总股本(百万股) | 800 | | 流通A股(百万股) | 800 | | 流通B/H股(百万股) | | | 总市值(亿元) | 390 | | 流通A股市值(亿元) | 390 | | 每股净资产(元) | 13.34 | | 资产负债率(%) | 22.7 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）*季报点评*收 入稳定增长，省内基本盘稳固*推荐20241029 【平安证券】迎驾贡酒（603198.SH）*半年报点评 *2Q延续增势，利润表现亮眼*推荐20240818 王萌 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522030001 WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 王星云 投资咨询资格编号 S10605 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.34 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and a net profit of 2.59 billion yuan, up 13.5% year-on-year. The Q1 2025 revenue was 2.05 billion yuan, down 12.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 829 million yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year. The performance in Q1 2025 was below expectations [4][5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.5 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, with a total cash dividend of 1.2 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 46.4% [4] - The company is adjusting its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 due to demand pressure, with projected net profits of 2.40 billion, 2.54 billion, and 2.72 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year changes of -7.4%, 6.0%, and 7.1% respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For 2024, total revenue is projected at 7.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.5%. The net profit is expected to be 2.59 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.5% [6] - The Q1 2025 revenue is expected to be 6.80 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 7.5%. The net profit is projected at 2.40 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year [6] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 73.9%, with a net margin of 35.3%, reflecting an increase in product mix improvement [8] Product and Regional Performance - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor is expected to reach 5.71 billion yuan, growing 13.8% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue is projected at 1.29 billion yuan, down 6.53% year-on-year [7] - The company’s revenue from the domestic market is expected to be 5.09 billion yuan, up 12.8% year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province is projected at 1.91 billion yuan, growing 1.31% year-on-year [7] Cash Flow and Liabilities - The operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to be 1.91 billion yuan, down 13.2% year-on-year, primarily due to increased tax payments [8] - The company’s contract liabilities at the end of 2024 are projected to be 578 million yuan, reflecting an increase from the previous year [8]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices experienced slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.05%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.13%. The North Star 50 Index, however, rose by 1.24% [1] - The total market turnover was 1.0417 trillion yuan, a decrease of 35 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3,500 stocks rising across the market [1] Sector Performance - The PEEK materials, beauty care, chemical products, humanoid robots, and agricultural machinery sectors saw the largest gains, while the electricity, insurance, liquor, port shipping, controllable nuclear fusion, and coal sectors experienced the most significant declines [2] - Notable stocks included PEEK materials concept stocks such as Juyuan Long (301131), Xinhang New Materials (301076), and Zhongxin Fluorine Materials (002915), which all hit the daily limit [2] - The beauty care sector saw strong afternoon performance with stocks like Marubi Biotechnology (603983) hitting the daily limit, while other notable gainers included Babi Co., Jinbo Biological, and Shanghai Jahwa (600315) [2] Stock Highlights - Step by Step (002251) and Maoye Commercial (600828) both achieved a "limit-up" performance in the afternoon, showcasing significant market interest [2] - The electricity sector faced a downturn, with stocks like Shaanxi Energy (000601), Leshan Electric Power (600644), and Xichang Electric Power (600505) hitting the daily limit down [2] - The liquor sector also lagged, with Yingjia Gongjiu (603198) hitting the daily limit down, and other major players like Yanghe Brewery (002304) and Gujing Gongjiu (000596) showing significant declines [2] Notable Trends - The "hot stock list" featured companies like Step by Step, Hongbaoli, and Maoye Commercial, with respective gains of 4.15%, 5.81%, and 10.02% [7] - The "strong wind direction list" highlighted sectors such as new energy vehicles, chemical products, and robotics, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [11][12][13] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 340.5 billion yuan for a 7-day term at an interest rate of 1.50% to maintain liquidity in the banking system [32] - The Ministry of Commerce reported that China's service trade totaled 19,741.8 billion yuan in the first quarter, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [33]

白酒股午后震荡走弱，迎驾贡酒（603198）触及跌停，洋河股份（002304）跌超4%，今世缘 （603369）、古井贡酒（000596）、山西汾酒（600809）纷纷下挫。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 8.5% in 2024, with a total revenue of 73.4 billion yuan and a net profit of 25.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.4% increase [7] - The company is experiencing a slowdown in mid-to-low-end liquor sales, while the "Dòngcáng" series continues to show strong growth potential [7] - The report indicates that the company is adjusting its product offerings to clear out low-end items, which has led to a significant decline in sales for lower-tier products [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 7,344 million yuan in 2024, 7,378 million yuan in 2025, 7,862 million yuan in 2026, and 8,685 million yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 8.46%, 0.46%, 6.57%, and 10.47% [1] - The net profit forecast is set at 2,589 million yuan for 2024, 2,617 million yuan for 2025, 2,842 million yuan for 2026, and 3,205 million yuan for 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.45%, 1.06%, 8.60%, and 12.77% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 3.24 yuan in 2024, 3.27 yuan in 2025, 3.55 yuan in 2026, and 4.01 yuan in 2027 [1] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 15.07 for 2024, 14.92 for 2025, 13.73 for 2026, and 12.18 for 2027 [1]