[Glossary](index=4&type=section&id=Glossary) This section provides definitions of key terms used in the report [Company Profile and Key Financial Indicators](index=5&type=section&id=Company%20Profile%20and%20Key%20Financial%20Indicators) This section introduces the company's basic information and presents its key financial performance metrics [Company Information](index=5&type=section&id=Company%20Information) This chapter provides Dongpeng Beverage (Group) Co., Ltd.'s basic business registration information, contact details, registered and office addresses, information disclosure channels, and stock overview - The company's stock short name is "Dongpeng Beverage", stock code is "**605499**", listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange[22](index=22&type=chunk) [Company's Key Accounting Data and Financial Indicators](index=6&type=section&id=Company's%20Key%20Accounting%20Data%20and%20Financial%20Indicators) In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of **10.74 billion yuan**, a **36.37% year-on-year increase**, and net profit attributable to shareholders of **2.37 billion yuan**, up **37.22%**, while operating cash flow decreased by **23.24%** 2025 H1 Key Accounting Data | Key Accounting Data | Current Period (Jan-Jun) | Prior Year Period | YoY Change (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Operating Revenue** | 10,736,627,858.45 yuan | 7,873,287,852.10 yuan | 36.37% | | **Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders** | 2,374,750,785.44 yuan | 1,730,591,498.79 yuan | 37.22% | | **Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders (Excl. Non-recurring Items)** | 2,270,463,283.77 yuan | 1,706,911,693.93 yuan | 33.02% | | **Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities** | 1,740,460,562.79 yuan | 2,267,292,619.33 yuan | -23.24% | | **Total Assets (End of Period)** | 22,915,401,434.98 yuan | 22,676,296,132.90 yuan (End of Prior Year) | 1.05% | 2025 H1 Key Financial Indicators | Key Financial Indicators | Current Period (Jan-Jun) | Prior Year Period | YoY Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Basic Earnings Per Share (yuan/share)** | 4.5667 | 3.3280 | 37.22% | | **Weighted Average Return on Net Assets (%)** | 28.18% | 24.63% | Increased by 3.55 percentage points | - Non-recurring gains and losses totaled **104 million yuan** during the reporting period, primarily from fair value changes of financial assets held by non-financial enterprises and government subsidies[26](index=26&type=chunk)[27](index=27&type=chunk) [Management Discussion and Analysis](index=7&type=section&id=Management%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis) This section provides a comprehensive discussion and analysis of the company's operational performance, financial condition, and future outlook [Industry and Main Business Overview](index=7&type=section&id=Industry%20and%20Main%20Business%20Overview) The company operates in the beverage industry, focusing on functional beverages, and has achieved significant national expansion, with the North China region growing by **73.03%** and electrolyte beverages increasing their revenue share to **13.91%** - The company focuses on the functional beverage sector, with its core product Dongpeng Special Drink being an energy beverage and Dongpeng Replenish being an electrolyte beverage[31](index=31&type=chunk)[32](index=32&type=chunk) - In the first half of 2025, competition in the beverage industry shifted from single product competition to a comprehensive contest of "precise consumer targeting + deep scenario adaptation + efficient channel reach"[39](index=39&type=chunk) - The company has initially built a "dual-engine + multi-category" diversified product matrix, strategically upgrading from a single category to a comprehensive beverage group, with energy and electrolyte beverages as dual engines, and tea, plant-based protein, coffee, and fruit and vegetable juices developing synergistically[49](index=49&type=chunk) 2025 H1 Main Business Revenue by Region (Unit: million yuan) | Region | 2025 Jan-Jun Amount (million yuan) | Proportion | YoY Growth | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Guangdong Region | 2,545.82 | 23.72% | 20.61% | | East China Region | 1,536.04 | 14.31% | 32.62% | | Central China Region | 1,376.57 | 12.83% | 28.91% | | Southwest Region | 1,282.22 | 11.95% | 39.76% | | **North China Region** | **1,707.50** | **15.91%** | **73.03%** | | Online and Other | 1,542.90 | 14.39% | 46.71% | | **Total** | **10,730.55** | **100.00%** | **36.49%** | 2025 H1 Main Business Revenue by Product Composition (Unit: million yuan) | Product | 2025 H1 Revenue (million yuan) | Proportion | 2024 H1 Revenue (million yuan) | Proportion | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Energy Beverages | 8,360.51 | 77.91% | 6,858.06 | 87.23% | | **Electrolyte Beverages** | **1,492.74** | **13.91%** | **475.84** | **6.05%** | | Other Beverages | 877.30 | 8.18% | 527.75 | 6.72% | | **Total** | **10,730.55** | **100.00%** | **7,861.64** | **100.00%** | [Discussion and Analysis of Operations](index=15&type=section&id=Discussion%20and%20Analysis%20of%20Operations) During the reporting period, the company achieved significant results by focusing on seven key operational areas, including product diversification, national and international channel expansion, targeted marketing, and supply chain optimization - The company maintains energy beverages as its core while firmly advancing a diversification strategy, with electrolyte beverage "Dongpeng Replenish" seeing a significant increase in revenue proportion compared to the same period last year[64](index=64&type=chunk)[65](index=65&type=chunk) - The company continues to deepen its national channel layout and steadily promote global expansion, especially in the Southeast Asian market, by forming localized teams and integrating resources to deepen penetration[67](index=67&type=chunk)[68](index=68&type=chunk) - Through sponsoring top sports events (Snooker, F4 Formula), signing celebrity endorsers (Yu Shi, Han Hong), and deeply engaging in e-sports and campus scenarios, the company comprehensively enhances the brand image and reputation of its various product lines[69](index=69&type=chunk)[71](index=71&type=chunk)[72](index=72&type=chunk) - The company continues to advance its national production capacity layout, currently planning **13 major production bases** (9 already in operation), with construction of Tianjin, Kunming, Zhongshan, and Hainan bases progressing as planned during the reporting period, aiming to optimize logistics efficiency and market coverage[74](index=74&type=chunk) - The company has built a full-process digital operation system covering marketing, supply chain, and management through "one item, one code" and "five-code linkage" technologies, achieving comprehensive quality and efficiency improvements, and actively exploring AI technology applications[79](index=79&type=chunk)[80](index=80&type=chunk)[81](index=81&type=chunk) [Core Competitiveness Analysis](index=20&type=section&id=Core%20Competitiveness%20Analysis) The company's core competitiveness stems from its strong product portfolio, extensive channel network, effective brand building, efficient supply chain, advanced digital capabilities, robust talent development, and unique corporate culture - **Product Power**: Built a product matrix with energy and electrolyte beverages as core drivers, covering tea, coffee, and other multi-categories, and strengthened R&D innovation through industry-university-research cooperation[85](index=85&type=chunk)[86](index=86&type=chunk)[87](index=87&type=chunk) - **Channel Power**: Possesses a nationwide, deeply penetrating, three-dimensional channel network, including over **3,200 distributors** and more than **4.2 million active terminal outlets**[88](index=88&type=chunk) - **Brand Power**: Through deepening scenario marketing (e.g., "Drink Dongpeng Special Drink when tired or sleepy"), its core products occupy consumer minds, and brand image for various categories is enhanced by signing endorsers and sponsoring events[92](index=92&type=chunk)[93](index=93&type=chunk) - **Supply Power**: Has strategically deployed **13 production bases** nationwide (9 already in operation), forming a strategic production capacity network, achieving cost leadership through economies of scale and lean management[96](index=96&type=chunk)[97](index=97&type=chunk)[98](index=98&type=chunk) - **Digital Power**: Built three digital systems for marketing, supply chain, and management through "five-code linkage" technology, enabling full-link data-driven decision-making, and enhancing consumer stickiness through digital marketing[99](index=99&type=chunk)[100](index=100&type=chunk)[101](index=101&type=chunk) [Analysis of Key Operating Conditions](index=25&type=section&id=Analysis%20of%20Key%20Operating%20Conditions) During the reporting period, the company's financial indicators primarily reflect rapid business expansion, with **operating revenue up 36.37%** due to channel development and new product sales, while **operating cash flow decreased by 23.24%** due to prior period prepayments and increased tax payments Financial Statement Key Item Variation Analysis | Item | Current Period (billion yuan) | Prior Year Period (billion yuan) | Change (%) | Explanation of Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Operating Revenue** | 10.74 | 7.87 | 36.37 | National channel expansion and new product sales growth | | **Operating Cost** | 5.89 | 4.36 | 35.02 | Sales volume growth and raw material price decrease leading to higher gross margin | | **Selling Expenses** | 1.68 | 1.23 | 37.27 | Increase in sales personnel, investment in refrigerators and advertising | | **Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities** | 1.74 | 2.27 | -23.24 | More prepayments received at end of 2024 and increased tax payments in current period | | **Net Cash Flow from Investing Activities** | -1.23 | -2.59 | 52.63 | Increase in cash recovered from investments in current period | | **Net Cash Flow from Financing Activities** | -1.79 | 1.84 | -196.95 | Increase in cash paid for loan repayments in current period | - The company's overseas assets reached **2.11 billion yuan**, accounting for **9.19%** of total assets, primarily comprising its subsidiary Dongpeng Beverage (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd., which achieved operating revenue of **8.87 million yuan** and net profit of **39.08 million yuan** during the reporting period[116](index=116&type=chunk)[118](index=118&type=chunk) - The company continued significant non-equity investments, investing **0.74 billion yuan** during the reporting period for the construction and capacity enhancement of multiple production bases, with substantial investments in Tianjin, Kunming, and Zhongshan bases[123](index=123&type=chunk)[124](index=124&type=chunk) [Corporate Governance, Environment, and Society](index=32&type=section&id=Corporate%20Governance%2C%20Environment%2C%20and%20Society) This section details the company's governance structure, environmental protection efforts, and social responsibility initiatives [Profit Distribution Plan](index=32&type=section&id=Profit%20Distribution%20Plan) The board of directors proposes a 2025 half-year profit distribution plan to distribute a cash dividend of **25 yuan (tax inclusive) per 10 shares**, totaling approximately **1.30 billion yuan**, pending shareholder approval 2025 H1 Profit Distribution Plan | Distribution/Capitalization Item | Specific Plan | | :--- | :--- | | **Cash Dividend per 10 Shares (yuan) (tax inclusive)** | 25 | | **Bonus Shares per 10 Shares (shares)** | 0 | | **Capitalization from Capital Reserve per 10 Shares (shares)** | 0 | | **Total Cash Dividend Distributed** | 1,300,032,500 yuan | [Social Responsibility and Rural Revitalization](index=32&type=section&id=Social%20Responsibility%20and%20Rural%20Revitalization) The company actively fulfills its social responsibilities by supporting rural healthcare and sports education, including donations for eye centers and ambulances in Xinjiang, and ongoing sports facility improvements for rural schools - Supported the "Han Hong Love · 100 People Aid Xinjiang" initiative, donating **2 eye centers** and **20 ambulances** to Xinjiang, aiding grassroots medical development[135](index=135&type=chunk) - Continuously partnered with Yao Foundation to carry out the "Youth Out of the Basket" public welfare program, donating sports facilities to rural primary schools and supporting teaching activities, having cumulatively supported over **300 rural primary schools**[136](index=136&type=chunk) [Significant Matters](index=34&type=section&id=Significant%20Matters) This section covers important events and commitments, including the fulfillment of promises, significant contracts, and the use of raised funds [Fulfillment of Commitments](index=34&type=section&id=Fulfillment%20of%20Commitments) During the reporting period, the company's actual controller, shareholders, and the company itself strictly fulfilled all commitments made during the initial public offering, with no breaches observed - The company's controlling shareholder and actual controller, Lin Muqin, committed not to transfer his pre-IPO shares for **36 months** from the date of stock listing[139](index=139&type=chunk) - The company and relevant parties have all committed that if commitments are not fulfilled, they will take corrective measures such as public apologies, supplementary commitments, and legal compensation for investor losses[154](index=154&type=chunk)[155](index=155&type=chunk) [Significant Contracts and Their Performance](index=46&type=section&id=Significant%20Contracts%20and%20Their%20Performance) During the reporting period, the company had no significant entrustment, contracting, or leasing matters, and its guarantees were exclusively for subsidiaries, totaling **4.01 billion yuan**, representing **45.83%** of net assets, with no external guarantees Company Guarantee Status | Guarantee Category | Amount | | :--- | :--- | | **Total Guarantee Balance for Subsidiaries at Period End** | 4,005,430,000.00 yuan | | **Proportion of Total Guarantees to Company's Net Assets** | 45.83% | | **External Guarantees (excluding guarantees for subsidiaries)** | 0 yuan | [Progress on Use of Raised Funds](index=48&type=section&id=Progress%20on%20Use%20of%20Raised%20Funds) The company's net proceeds from its initial public offering were **1.732 billion yuan**, with **1.658 billion yuan** cumulatively invested as of the reporting period end, representing a **95.74%** investment progress, and idle funds are managed for cash - Net proceeds from raised funds were **1.732 billion yuan**, with a cumulative investment of **1.658 billion yuan** as of the reporting period end, representing an overall investment progress of **95.74%**[180](index=180&type=chunk) - Multiple production bases, marketing network, and information system upgrade projects have utilized raised funds and reached their intended usable state, while the headquarters building construction project is still underway, expected to be completed by June 2026[183](index=183&type=chunk)[185](index=185&type=chunk)[187](index=187&type=chunk) [Share Changes and Shareholder Information](index=53&type=section&id=Share%20Changes%20and%20Shareholder%20Information) This section details changes in the company's share capital and provides an overview of its shareholder structure [Shareholder Information](index=53&type=section&id=Shareholder%20Information) As of the reporting period end, the company had **13,121 common shareholders**, with the top ten shareholders holding a concentrated stake, and the actual controller Lin Muqin holding **49.74%** Top Five Shareholders' Shareholding as of Reporting Period End | Shareholder Name | Shares Held at Period End (shares) | Proportion (%) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Lin Muqin | 258,657,634 | 49.74 | | Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited | 51,464,479 | 9.90 | | Lin Mugang | 27,151,626 | 5.22 | | Lin Daiqin | 27,151,626 | 5.22 | | Ruichang Kunpeng Venture Capital Partnership (Limited Partnership) | 26,319,204 | 5.06 | [Bond-Related Information](index=56&type=section&id=Bond-Related%20Information) This section provides information regarding the company's bonds and other debt financing instruments [Company Bonds](index=56&type=section&id=Company%20Bonds) During the reporting period, the company had no outstanding corporate bonds, enterprise bonds, or non-financial enterprise debt financing instruments [Financial Report](index=56&type=section&id=Financial%20Report) This section presents the company's financial statements and detailed notes to the consolidated financial statements [Financial Statements](index=56&type=section&id=Financial%20Statements) This chapter includes the company's unaudited consolidated and parent company balance sheets, income statements, cash flow statements, and statements of changes in owners' equity [Consolidated Balance Sheet](index=56&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Balance%20Sheet) This section presents the company's consolidated balance sheet [Consolidated Income Statement](index=60&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Income%20Statement) This section presents the company's consolidated income statement [Consolidated Cash Flow Statement](index=64&type=section&id=Consolidated%20Cash%20Flow%20Statement) This section presents the company's consolidated cash flow statement [Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements](index=106&type=section&id=Notes%20to%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) This chapter provides detailed explanations of the composition and changes in major accounts within the consolidated financial statements Operating Revenue by Product Type (Current Period) | Product Type | Operating Revenue (billion yuan) | | :--- | :--- | | Energy Beverages | 8.36 | | Electrolyte Beverages | 1.49 | | Other Beverages | 0.88 | Selling Expenses Composition (Current Period) | Item | Amount (million yuan) | | :--- | :--- | | Staff Remuneration | 690.69 | | Channel Promotion Fees | 676.44 | | Advertising and Publicity Fees | 205.71 | - As of the end of the period, the contract liabilities balance was **3.67 billion yuan**, including **1.02 billion yuan** in prepayments for goods and **2.64 billion yuan** in sales rebates and discounts payable[472](index=472&type=chunk)

东鹏饮料（605499）公告，2025年上半年营业收入107.37亿元，同比增长36.37%。净利润23.75亿元， 同比增长37.22%。拟以公司2025年半年度股本总数5.2亿股为基数，向全体股东每10股派25元(含税)，共 计分派现金红利13亿元。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment recommendation for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" [10][16] Core Insights - The heavy holding ratio for the food and beverage industry decreased by 2.13 percentage points to 6.62% in Q2 2025, with the white liquor heavy holding ratio dropping by 2.34 percentage points to 4.96% [5][19] - The top five holdings in the food and beverage sector are Kweichow Moutai (0.98%), Wuliangye (0.43%), Shanxi Fenjiu (0.38%), Luzhou Laojiao (0.26%), and Dongpeng Beverage (0.18%) [5][14] - The report highlights a shift in fund allocations, with non-dairy beverages seeing an increase in holdings while white liquor experienced significant reductions [12][27] Summary by Sections 1. Q2 2025 Fund Holdings: Decrease in Food and Beverage Holdings, Significant Reduction in White Liquor - The heavy holding ratio for the food and beverage industry is 6.62%, with an overweight ratio of 1.63%, both showing a decrease [11][19] - The heavy holding ratio for white liquor is 4.96%, with an overweight ratio of 1.63%, also reflecting a decline [11][19] 1.1 Food and Beverage Industry Public Fund Holding Ratio - The public fund heavy holding ratio for the food and beverage industry is 6.62%, down 2.13 percentage points, ranking fourth among sectors [19][20] - The standard allocation ratio is 4.99%, with an overweight ratio of 1.63%, down 1.55 percentage points [19][20] 1.2 Excluding Heavy White Liquor Funds - The concentration of white liquor holdings is high, with eight funds holding over 1 billion yuan in white liquor, accounting for 52.91% of the total white liquor holding value [12][24] - Excluding these funds, the remaining funds show a white liquor holding ratio of 2.34%, down 1.79 percentage points [12][24] 1.3 Non-Dairy Beverages Increased Holdings - In Q2 2025, the holding ratios for various sub-sectors are as follows: white liquor (4.96%), beer (0.35%), non-dairy beverages (0.40%), and others, with non-dairy beverages seeing a 0.15 percentage point increase [13][27] 1.4 Non-Dairy Beverages and Snack Foods Increased Holdings - The top five holdings in the food and beverage sector are Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Gujing Gongjiu [41][44] - The report notes that Dongpeng Beverage, Yanjing Beer, and Salted Fish saw the largest increases in holdings [14][44] 1.5 Net Outflow of Northbound Capital from the Food and Beverage Industry - As of June 2025, northbound capital holdings in the food and beverage sector totaled 177 billion yuan, with a holding ratio of 3.75%, down 0.40 percentage points [15][22] 2. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on structural growth opportunities in new channels and products, while also considering traditional cyclical stocks that are currently undervalued [16][19]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the liquor sector has faced challenges due to the implementation of the "Regulations on Strict Economy and Opposition to Waste" by the central government, leading to a decline in revenue and profits for most liquor companies in Q2 2025. However, recent media corrections have stabilized the sector, and a gradual recovery is expected [3][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of individual stock opportunities within the consumer goods sector, particularly in the context of the liquor market's recovery and the introduction of innovative products [4][21] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the food and beverage sector is 17226.07, with a 52-week high of 19809.29 [1] - The sector has shown a relative performance decline compared to the CSI 300 index, with a year-on-year retail sales growth of 4.8% in June 2025 [14] Liquor Sector Analysis - The report notes that major liquor companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao have varying price-to-earnings ratios, indicating a mixed valuation landscape [20] - The introduction of new products, such as the "Jiu Gui Free Love" by Jiu Gui Jiu and its collaboration with the retail channel "Pang Dong Lai," is expected to drive sales and innovate marketing strategies [5][18] Fund Holdings and Market Sentiment - As of Q2 2025, the food and beverage sector's fund holding ratio is 6.75%, reflecting a decrease of 2.12 percentage points, indicating cautious sentiment among investors [4][20] - The liquor segment's fund holding ratio is 4.98%, also down by 2.42 percentage points, suggesting a trend of risk aversion in the market [20] Company Performance Highlights - Dongpeng Beverage reported stable revenue growth, with significant increases in electrolyte water and fruit tea segments [22] - The report mentions that companies like Youfei Foods and Guoquan are focusing on channel optimization and product innovation to drive growth [23] - The performance of companies such as Zhou Hei Ya and Jiahe Foods is noted, with both showing signs of recovery despite facing challenges [23] Market Trends and Price Movements - The food and beverage sector index increased by 0.68% in the latest week, ranking 13th among 30 sectors, while the dynamic PE ratio stands at 21.26 [24] - The report highlights that soft drinks and dairy products have shown the highest growth rates among sub-sectors [24]

Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating [4][5][37] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage industry has a fund holding ratio of 6.2%, which is a decrease of 1.86 percentage points from the previous quarter, ranking fifth among Shenwan's primary industries. The overall overweight ratio for the industry is 1.37%, which has decreased by 1.34 percentage points [1][12] - The liquor sector remains the most heavily weighted, but its overweight ratio has declined, while the consumer goods sector has seen an increase in fund holdings [2][17] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q2 2025, the liquor sector's fund holding ratio decreased by 2.07 percentage points to 4.5%, with an overweight ratio down by 1.52 percentage points to 1.35%. Excluding Moutai, the liquor sector's fund holding ratio fell by 1.61 percentage points to 2.61% [2][17] - The consumer goods sector saw increases in fund holdings for soft drinks, snacks, and condiments, with the soft drink sector's fund holding ratio rising by 0.15 percentage points to 0.41% [2][18] Individual Stock Performance - Major liquor stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye saw a decrease in the number of funds holding their shares, with Moutai's holding ratio dropping to 1.88% and Wuliangye's to 0.89% [29][30] - In contrast, stocks like Dongpeng Beverage and Yanjing Beer received increased allocations, with Dongpeng's holding ratio rising to 0.35% [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, with a specific focus on the beverage sector and new consumer retail [1]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has seen a decline in holdings, primarily due to a significant reduction in the allocation to liquor, particularly high-end brands [10][11]. - The report emphasizes a shift towards consumer staples and highlights the resilience of leading companies in the beverage sector [28]. Summary by Sections 1. Decline in Food and Beverage Holdings - As of Q2 2025, the proportion of active equity funds in the food and beverage sector decreased to 5.5%, down 1.82 percentage points from Q1 2025 [10][14]. - The decline in liquor holdings is attributed to ongoing pressure on the liquor market, with a notable drop in the allocation to high-end liquor brands [11][12]. 2. Liquor Sector Adjustments - The allocation to liquor decreased by 1.96 percentage points to 3.98% in Q2 2025, with major consumer funds showing a significant reduction in liquor holdings [12][18]. - The report identifies a trend of reduced holdings in high-end liquor brands such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, while some consumer staples have seen increased allocations [23][28]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on five key sectors: beverages, new consumer retail, dairy, liquor, and health products [28]. - Specific recommendations include buying opportunities in Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as the market adjusts to current conditions [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in the liquor sector and food products [1] Core Insights - The liquor industry is undergoing extreme pressure testing, with a significant focus on inventory clearance and bottoming out of financial reports. The second quarter has shown weak demand due to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts, leading to a notable decline in sales and pricing pressures [5][10] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai are expected to maintain growth, while mid-tier brands face challenges with declining revenues and profits. The overall industry is in a deep clearance phase, with potential for recovery as regulations stabilize [5][12] - The consumer goods sector shows mixed performance, with snacks and beverages remaining strong, while other segments like frozen foods and chain restaurants face ongoing demand pressures [20][25] Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector - The liquor industry is experiencing extreme pressure, with weak demand in the second quarter and significant inventory levels. Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to show modest growth, while others like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao are facing declines [5][11][12] - Moutai's revenue is projected to grow by 7% in Q2, while Wuliangye is expected to see a 1% increase. In contrast, brands like Yanghe and Luzhou Laojiao are forecasted to decline by 35% and 8% respectively [11][12] 2. Consumer Goods - The overall demand for consumer goods remains weak, but segments like snacks and beverages are performing well. For instance, East Peak is expected to see a 33% increase in revenue, while other snack brands are also showing positive trends [20][25] - The beverage sector is projected to see positive growth, with major brands like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing expected to report increases in revenue and profit [25][26] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-performing stocks in the short term while considering long-term investments in liquor brands that are currently at their bottom. Brands like Moutai and Gujing are recommended for their lower risk profiles [7][8] - For consumer goods, companies like Anqi and East Peak are highlighted for their growth potential, while traditional dairy brands like Yili and Mengniu are suggested for a bundled investment approach [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [2][6]. Core Views - The liquor sector is experiencing a valuation recovery, with some companies releasing mid-year performance forecasts that are expected to alleviate demand pressure. The overall sentiment in the liquor market is improving due to positive policy expectations, leading to a rebound in stock prices for major players [3][12]. - The beer and beverage segments are entering a peak season, with a focus on mid-year performance. Major beer companies are expected to maintain high profit growth due to cost reduction and efficiency improvements [4][15]. - The report highlights three main investment themes in the liquor sector: resilient leaders like Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye; companies like Luzhou Laojiao that are showing signs of valuation recovery; and brands like Jinsiyuan and Yingjiagongjiu that have potential for market share growth [3][14]. Summary by Sections Liquor - The liquor sector's revenue for the first half of the year reached 331.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. However, production has decreased by 5.8% [3][12]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong anti-risk capabilities and those that are actively engaging in digital transformation [3][14]. Consumer Goods - The beer segment is expected to see significant profit growth, with Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer forecasting net profits to increase by 40% to 50% year-on-year [15][16]. - The snack food sector is under pressure, with companies like Ganyuan Food and Qiaqia Food predicting substantial declines in net profits due to high raw material costs and increased marketing expenses [17][18]. Seasonality and Market Trends - The report notes that the beverage industry is entering a peak consumption period, with expectations for continued growth in segments like sugar-free tea and energy drinks [21][22]. - The dairy sector is anticipated to recover gradually, with policies stimulating demand and improving supply dynamics [20][21]. Key Data Tracking - The food and beverage sector saw a 1.02% increase in stock prices, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.33 percentage points during the week of July 14 to July 18, 2025 [22].

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the food and beverage industry is positive, with expectations of returns exceeding the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next six months [23]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector has shown signs of stabilization and recovery, with soft drinks, liquor, and dairy products leading in growth. The sector index increased by 0.97%, ranking 14th among 31 sub-industries [4][13]. - The liquor segment is experiencing a rebound, with the SW liquor index rising by 0.88%. The sector is in a bottoming phase, with a focus on the upcoming demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [5][17]. - The beverage market is seeing mixed short-term performances due to external events, but there is a long-term positive outlook for companies with upward momentum [6][18]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is recommended for investment, with specific companies like Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Jianshiyuan receiving "Buy" ratings. The sector is currently at a historical low valuation, suggesting a potential recovery [3][5][21]. - The price of Moutai (bottle) is reported at 1890 RMB, showing a slight increase, while the price of Wuliangye remains stable at 870 RMB [5][17]. Beverage Sector - The beverage sector is experiencing fluctuations due to public sentiment affecting certain brands. Companies like Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverage have shown resilience, with Nongfu Spring's market share recovering significantly [6][20]. - Recommendations include Youyou Foods, Dongpeng Beverage, and Dashi Co., with a focus on companies that can capitalize on market share recovery [6][18][21]. Food Sector - The food sector has seen some companies facing challenges due to external events, but there are still opportunities for growth in the long term. The focus remains on companies with strong mid-year performance [6][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector in A-shares has shown a mixed performance, with a 1.53% increase over the past two weeks, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.26 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.33 percentage points [12] - The retail sales growth in June was 4.8%, indicating a slowdown compared to May, with total retail sales amounting to 42,287 billion yuan [55] - The report highlights the resilience of high-end liquor companies and the growing consumption trends in various segments such as beer and snacks [57] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - A-shares in the food and beverage industry increased by 1.53% in the last two weeks, lagging behind major indices [12] - Within the sector, liquor (+2.30%), meat products (+1.27%), and dairy (+0.86%) performed well, while soft drinks (-2.11%), snacks (-1.86%), and baked goods (-1.33%) saw declines [12] - Notable stock performances included Huangshi Group (+18.11%), Huang Shang Huang (+13.54%), and Liangpinpuzi (+12.95%) [12] 2. Key Data Tracking - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.04 yuan/kg, down 6.2% year-on-year [37] - The national market price for pork was 25.46 yuan/kg, down 11.9% year-on-year [40] - The price of PET for packaging was 6,100 yuan/ton, down 16.4% year-on-year [40] 3. Key Events Tracking - June retail sales data showed a total of 245,458 billion yuan for the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [55] - PepsiCo reported a net sales revenue of 22.726 billion USD for Q2 2025, with stable growth in its Chinese market share [55] - The World Health Organization initiated a health tax proposal aimed at increasing the prices of tobacco, alcohol, and sugary drinks by at least 50% by 2035 [55] 4. Important Company Announcements - Liangpinpuzi's actual controller is set to change to the Wuhan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [56] - Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 1.062 to 1.137 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50% [56] 5. Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-end liquor companies with strong brand and channel capabilities, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [57] - The report suggests monitoring companies in the beer and snack segments, as well as dairy firms like Yili and New Dairy [57]