Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost sales in the liquor sector, with Moutai leading the industry towards an unexpected improvement. Short-term focus should be on the demand for the Spring Festival, while medium-term investments should target leading brands across various price segments [1] - In the beer segment, new product launches are being prepared, with a focus on high-growth channels and consumer trends towards personalized and diversified consumption [2] - The baking sector is showing stable performance, with companies like Lihigh Foods preparing for the sales peak and benefiting from favorable policies regarding cream products [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival is driving demand, with Moutai expected to lead the market. Key short-term stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Guo Jiu Gong Jiu, and others, while medium-term focus should be on Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Beer Sector - Current beer sales are in a low season, but new product launches and high growth in instant retail channels are promising. Companies like Chongqing Beer are launching new 1L cans to meet consumer preferences [2] Food Sector - Lihigh Foods is preparing for the sales peak with a focus on quality over quantity, while Anqi Yeast is benefiting from declining sugarcane prices, enhancing profit margins [3] - Yizhi Konjac is experiencing rapid demand growth, with a stable supply chain and product innovation driving its market position [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, particularly on high-end liquor such as Moutai, with expectations of gradual recovery in sales and pricing stability post-Spring Festival [10][11][12]. Core Insights - The high-end liquor segment, especially Moutai, is experiencing a sales boost as the Spring Festival approaches, with expectations of price recovery due to increased demand driven by wealth effects [10][11]. - The report suggests that the market's concerns about post-festival price drops for Moutai are likely to be unfounded, predicting only minor seasonal fluctuations [10][12]. - The overall sentiment in the liquor industry is shifting from a pessimistic outlook to a more stable one, with expectations of improved sales dynamics as external constraints on consumption ease [11][12]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report highlights that Moutai's sales are performing better than previously cautious expectations, leading to a price recovery for both Moutai and newer Moutai products [10]. - It is noted that the market is still wary of potential price declines after the Spring Festival, but historical patterns suggest only minor adjustments are likely [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brand strength and market positioning for high-end liquor companies, recommending investments in brands with strong market presence and growth potential [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is seeing a steady recovery in on-premise consumption, with companies diversifying into non-drink channels and soft drinks [12]. - The report suggests that the beer industry's performance is expected to stabilize, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing and improving dividend yields [12]. Snack Industry - The snack sector is benefiting from pre-Spring Festival stocking and product innovation, with companies like Qiaqia and Ganyuan expected to show significant profit elasticity due to low comparative bases [14]. - The report recommends focusing on leading snack companies that are expanding their store presence and adapting their product offerings [14]. Beverage Industry - The soft drink sector is currently facing challenges due to seasonal demand fluctuations and competition from ready-to-drink tea brands, leading to a slight decline in overall sales growth [14]. - Despite these challenges, leading brands like Dongpeng and Nongfu are expected to maintain double-digit growth through brand strength and market share consolidation [14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing as restaurant demand begins to recover, with expectations of improved performance in 2026 driven by seasonal effects [15]. - The report highlights companies like Angel Yeast and Qianhe Condiments as having strong growth potential due to favorable market conditions and dividend yields [15].

Core Insights - The Chinese white liquor market has experienced a structural rebound in retail prices for the top ten products as of January 25, with an overall average price of 8,893 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day, marking a five-day high [1] - The market shows a mixed performance with six products increasing in price and four decreasing, indicating ongoing structural adjustments within the industry [1] Price Movements - The premium Moutai (Jingpin) saw the largest increase, rising by 16 yuan to 2,356 yuan per bottle [3] - Wuliangye (Pu Wu 58) increased by 10 yuan to 802 yuan per bottle, contributing significantly to the average price rise [3] - Other notable increases include Guojiao 1573 (+6 yuan), Qinghua Lang (+4 yuan), and slight increases for Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ and Shuijing Jian Nan Chun (+1 yuan each) [1][4] Declines in Prices - The price of Xijiu Junpin decreased by 6 yuan to 646 yuan per bottle [4] - Qinghua Fen 20 dropped by 5 yuan, while Feitian Moutai faced a slight decline of 4 yuan due to consistent supply from the iMoutai platform [1][4] - Other declines include Gujing Gong Gu 20, which fell by 3 yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market shows signs of a slight recovery in retail prices for the top ten products as of January 24, with an overall average price of 8,873 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day. However, the market remains cautious with structural fluctuations dominating the short-term outlook [1]. Price Movements - Among the top ten liquor products, five experienced price increases, four saw declines, and one remained stable. The overall average price remained relatively stable [1]. - The leading price increase was observed in Qinghua Lang, which rose by 10 yuan per bottle. Xijiu Junpin followed with an increase of 8 yuan per bottle, while the price of premium Moutai rose by 7 yuan per bottle [1]. - Other products that saw slight increases include Qinghua Fen 20 and Gujing Gong Gu 20, which rose by 2 yuan and 1 yuan per bottle, respectively [1]. Declining Prices - The product with the largest decline was Wuliangye Pu 58th generation, which fell by 9 yuan per bottle. Guojiao 1573 also saw a decrease of 6 yuan per bottle, and Feitian Moutai dropped by 2 yuan per bottle, primarily due to the continued supply of low-priced goods on the iMoutai platform [1][3]. - Additionally, Shuijing Jian Nan Chun experienced a minor decline of 1 yuan per bottle, while Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ remained unchanged at 578 yuan [1][4].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance of the China Securities White Wine Index Fund, which experienced a decline in net value but outperformed its benchmark during the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating a complex market environment for the white wine industry [1][9]. Fund Performance - The A-class and C-class shares of the white wine fund both saw a net value decrease of approximately 9.5% in Q4 2025, while the benchmark's return was -9.78%, resulting in a slight outperformance of 0.28 and 0.25 percentage points respectively [1][10]. - Over the past year, the A-class and C-class shares recorded net value growth rates of -12.63% and -12.72%, outperforming the benchmark by 2.68 and 2.59 percentage points respectively [1][10]. Fund Holdings - The fund's top holdings include Kweichow Moutai, which regained its position as the largest holding with a 15.38% share, valued at approximately 6.642 billion yuan [3][12]. - The top ten holdings accounted for 84.79% of the fund's net asset value, indicating a significant concentration in leading companies within the white wine sector [3][12]. Market Conditions - The white wine sector faced challenges in Q4 2025 due to slower-than-expected consumer recovery and pressure on terminal sales, leading to an overall downward trend in stock prices [3][11]. - The fund manager noted that the industry is experiencing a phase of adjustment, with head companies exerting pressure on mid-tier firms, complicating the balance of price and volume for wine producers [5][13]. Investor Behavior - There was a notable divergence in investor behavior, with A-class shares experiencing a net redemption of 10.54 billion shares, while C-class shares increased by 15.71 billion shares during the same period [5][16]. - The growth in C-class shares may reflect investor strategies favoring short-term gains, while the redemption of A-class shares suggests a cautious outlook on the industry's recovery [5][16].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a slight recovery in the retail prices of China's top ten liquor products, indicating a temporary alleviation of downward pressure in the industry [1][7]. Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten liquor products reached 8,863 yuan on January 23, an increase of 9 yuan from the previous day [1][7]. - The market displayed a mixed performance with five products increasing in price, four decreasing, and one remaining stable [1][8]. - Notable price increases included Xijiu Junpin and Gujing Gonggu 20, which rose by 10 yuan and 8 yuan per bottle, respectively [1][8]. - Conversely, the premium Moutai led the declines with a drop of 11 yuan per bottle, followed by Feitian Moutai, which fell by 4 yuan [1][8]. Market Analysis - The data for "Wine Price Reference" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, aiming to provide an objective and traceable overview of liquor market prices [2][9]. - The introduction of new sales channels for Moutai products has begun to influence market prices significantly [2][9]. - Fund managers are showing a mixed approach towards the liquor sector, with some increasing their holdings in leading brands, indicating a potential recovery phase for the industry [3][9]. - The liquor sector is perceived to be at a historical valuation low, with expectations of demand recovery driven by consumption policies under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][9].

Group 1 - Several public funds have reduced their holdings in liquor stocks, particularly in high-end brands like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, with reductions of 8.08% and 5.14% respectively [2] - The liquor sector experienced a cumulative decline of 11.5% in Q4 2025, contrasting with the overall bullish market, which has contributed to the decision of funds to decrease their positions [2] - The fundamental performance of the liquor industry is also underwhelming, with many companies issuing profit warnings for 2025 [3] Group 2 - Major liquor companies are forecasting significant declines in net profits, with Shui Jing Fang expected to see a 71% drop and Kuozi Jiao anticipating at least a 50% decrease [3] - The ongoing decline in the liquor sector is attributed to multiple factors, including supply-demand imbalances and changes in consumer behavior, indicating a shift from irrational exuberance to a focus on intrinsic value [3] - The consumer sector remains under pressure, with domestic demand facing challenges compared to export-oriented companies, as highlighted by Zhang Kun's analysis [4]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000596 | 古井贡酒 | 127.03 | -1.22% | 3.32万 | 4.25 Z | | 603369 | 今世缘 | 33.91 | -0.91% | 7.36万 | 2.51亿 | | 615009 | 贵州茅台 | 1340.06 | -0.81% | 5.90万 | 79.62亿 | | 000568 | 泸州老窖 | 112.35 | -0.73% | 8.24万 | 9.30亿 | | 616809 | 金徽酒 | 19.87 | -0.50% | 3.57万 | 7121.10万 | | 600779 | 水井坊 | 38.75 | -0.46% | 3.75万 | 1.45亿 | | 600702 | 舍得酒业 | 54.44 | -0.33% | 4.65万 | 2.53亿 | | 603198 | 迎驾贡酒 | 38.84 | -0.31% | 3.33万 | 1.29亿 | | 000858 | 五粮液 | 1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strategic adjustments made by prominent fund managers at E Fund in their investment portfolios for Q4 2025, focusing on sectors like AI, healthcare, consumer goods, and technology [2][4][6][10] Group 2 - Zhang Kun adjusted the structure of investments in the healthcare, consumer, and technology sectors while maintaining a stable position in top holdings, which include Tencent Holdings, Kweichow Moutai, and Alibaba-W [4][5] - Zhang Kun expressed confidence in the improvement of living standards and social security in China over the next decade, suggesting a narrowing gap with developed countries [4] - The AI wave is seen as a significant driver for innovation, with strong domestic demand expected to attract global resources and talent [4][5] Group 3 - Chen Hao focused heavily on AI-related sectors, increasing allocations in power equipment, new energy, non-bank financials, and chemicals, which yielded positive returns [7][8] - Chen Hao anticipates a transition of the AI industry from an acceleration phase in 2025 to a stable growth phase in 2026, emphasizing the importance of structural opportunities and the integration of AI with local applications [7][8] Group 4 - Xiao Nan reduced allocations in high-end and sub-high-end liquor sectors while increasing investments in the livestock industry, anticipating inflation-driven cost increases over the next two years [10] - The top holdings in Xiao Nan's consumer sector fund remained unchanged, including Kweichow Moutai and Midea Group [10]

新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在1月22日迎 来普遍下跌。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价为8854元，较昨日下跌12元。市场价格 第五次创下近两个月的新低，高端酒价格中枢持续下移，行业短期调整态势未改。 今日市场普跌特征凸显，十大单品七跌三涨，头部酒品走势分化，仅少数单品显露止跌回暖迹象。下跌 产品中，习酒君品领跌，环比降低13元/瓶；古井贡古紧随其后，环比下跌9元/瓶；国窖1573与洋河梦 之蓝M6+均环比下跌4元/瓶；飞天茅台环比下跌3元/瓶，i茅台平价货源持续投放，终端价格支撑进一步 弱化；青花汾20与青花郎跌幅较小，分别下跌2元/瓶与1元/瓶。上涨产品中，精品茅台领涨，环比大幅 上涨18元/瓶，渠道货源阶段性收紧，叠加部分终端补货需求释放；五粮液普五八代上涨5元/瓶；水晶 剑南春微涨1元/瓶。 "酒价内参"的每日数据源自全国各大区均有合理分布的约200个采集点，包括但不限于酒企的指定经销 商、社会经销商、电商平台和零售网点等，原始取样数据为过去24个小时各点位经手的真实成交终端零 ...