证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车行业周报（20251201-20251207） 行业研究 汽车 2025 年 12 月 07 日 推荐（维持） 板块触底有望提前，关注 26 年 beta 反弹机会 华创证券研究所 | 证券分析师：张程航 | 证券分析师：夏凉 | 证券分析师：李昊岚 | 联系人：张睿希 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电话：021-20572543 | 电话：021-20572532 | 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：zhangruixi@hcyjs.com | | 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：xialiang@hcyjs.com | 执业编号：S0360524010003 | | | 执业编号：S0360519070003 | 执业编号：S0360522030001 | | | 本周我们更新了明年年度策略，相较于前几年，2026 年确实市场一致预期相对较高，我 们观点简言之：1）销量展望没那么悲观，所以会有 beta 反弹机会；2）整车投资依然以 个股为主，零部件以新产业为主。 4Q 汽车基本面低于预期，这 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - The Trump administration is placing significant emphasis on the robotics industry, which is expected to experience synchronized development both domestically and internationally. This reflects a growing policy support level for humanoid robots, indicating their potential as a core component of U.S. manufacturing and technological competitiveness [2][12] - The report suggests that companies within the automotive supply chain that can integrate with Tesla and Figure's robotics ecosystem are likely to benefit. It recommends continued attention to humanoid robotics, T-chain, liquid cooling supply chains, Huawei's supply chain, and companies leading in intelligent driving technology [3][14] - November saw a mixed performance in passenger vehicle sales, with some new energy vehicle brands like Hongmeng Zhixing and Xiaopeng maintaining strong year-on-year growth. Overall, the report anticipates limited overdraw in domestic passenger vehicle sales by year-end [14][16] Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In November, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.302 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19%, while retail sales were 879,000 units, showing a 2% increase year-on-year [16] - Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 26.766 million units, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [16] Market Trends - The automotive sector overall saw a 1.3% increase, with sub-sectors like motorcycles and commercial vehicles performing particularly well [24][28] - Notable companies such as BYD and SAIC Motor reported varied performance in November, with BYD's sales down by 5.3% year-on-year, while SAIC's sales decreased by 3.7% [36][40] Key Company Announcements - BYD reported sales of 480,200 units in November, while Geely's sales increased by 24.1% year-on-year [36][37] - Changan Automobile and Great Wall Motors also reported positive sales growth, with Changan's sales up by 2.5% and Great Wall's by 4.6% [39][41] Industry Dynamics - The report highlights that over 11 months, more than 11.2 million vehicles were replaced through trade-in programs, contributing significantly to related sales [54] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology encourages leading Chinese companies in sectors like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles to expand internationally [56]

- The report suggests that the short-term correction pressure in the A-share market may have been released, and the market has re-entered a volatile range[1][12] - The report recommends using "dividends + technology" as the main allocation strategy, with dividends potentially having an advantage in terms of volatility[1][12] - The report tracks the performance of major broad-based indices, noting that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, the Shanghai 50 by 1.09%, the CSI 300 by 1.28%, the CSI 500 by 0.94%, the CSI 1000 by 0.11%, the ChiNext Index by 1.86%, and the Beijing 50 Index by 1.49% during the week of December 1-5, 2025[1][13][14] - The valuation of broad-based indices as of December 5, 2025, shows that the CSI 500, CSI 1000, and ChiNext Index are at "moderate" levels, while the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 are at "dangerous" levels[1][19][20] - The report tracks quantitative sentiment indicators, including volume timing signals, which are all cautious as of December 5, 2025[24][25] - The report discusses the "number of rising stocks in the CSI 300" sentiment indicator, which is used to gauge market sentiment by calculating the proportion of stocks with positive returns over a certain period[25][26] - The report evaluates the "moving average sentiment indicator," which uses the eight moving average system to judge the trend state of the CSI 300 index[33][36] - The report observes market profitability effects through cross-sectional volatility and time series volatility, noting that the short-term Alpha environment has improved for the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices but worsened for the CSI 1000 index[37][38][39][40] - The report tracks institutional research activities, noting that the top five stocks receiving the most attention from institutions during the week were Jereh Co., Ltd., Yihada, Hotgen Biotech, Espressif Systems, and Changan Automobile[41][42][53][54] - The report tracks the performance of stock index futures, noting that the main contracts for IF, IH, IC, and IM all rose during the week, with varying degrees of basis changes[56][57][58][59] - The report tracks southbound capital flows, noting a net inflow of HKD 113.49 billion during the week of December 1-5, 2025[66][68] - The report tracks changes in financing scale, noting that the financing balance as of December 4, 2025, was CNY 24,664.89 billion, an increase of CNY 99.89 billion from November 28, 2025[67][72] - The report tracks the ETF market, noting that stock ETFs had a median return of 1.06% and a net inflow of CNY 25.94 billion during the week, while cross-border ETFs had a median return of 0.48% and a net inflow of CNY 12.67 billion[69][70][71] - The report tracks the degree of fund concentration, noting that the degree of fund concentration decreased slightly from the previous week, while the excess returns of concentrated stocks and funds increased from the previous week[77][79][80]

Core Insights - SAIC-GM Buick has launched the flagship MPV "Zhijing Shijia" under its high-end new energy sub-brand "Zhijing" with two models priced at 439,900 yuan and 469,900 yuan respectively [1][12] - The vehicle features advanced technologies such as the "Zhaoyao" Super Fusion architecture, "True Dragon" plug-in hybrid dual-motor all-wheel drive system, and high-level driver assistance systems [1][7] Vehicle Specifications - Zhijing Shijia has dimensions of 5260mm in length, 2023mm in width, and 1820mm in height, with a wheelbase of 3160mm [3] - The design is inspired by private jets, featuring a low drag coefficient of 0.258Cd and a 12-layer two-tone paint process [3] Interior and Comfort Features - The interior boasts a length of over 3.6 meters and a height of over 1.3 meters, with an 80% utilization rate of the vehicle's width [3] - It includes innovative zero-gravity seats in the second row, a spacious trunk with a capacity ranging from 630L to 2056L, and a range of luxury materials and features [5] Technology and Smart Features - The vehicle is equipped with a Qualcomm SA8775P chip, AI computing power of 72 TOPS, and an 8-screen digital space [5] - It integrates multiple AI models for various functions, including voice assistance and control over 700 commands [5] Powertrain and Performance - The Zhijing Shijia features a dual-motor all-wheel drive system providing 775N·m of torque and a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 5.8 seconds [7] - It offers a pure electric range of 224 km and supports fast charging from 30% to 80% in 20 minutes [7] Advanced Driver Assistance Systems - The vehicle includes the "Zhaoyao" high-level driver assistance system, utilizing advanced models and lidar technology for seamless urban navigation and parking [9] Strategic Positioning and Market Outlook - The launch of Zhijing Shijia aligns with SAIC-GM Buick's strategy to transition into the new energy vehicle market, targeting a 50% sales share for new energy products by 2026 and 60% by 2027 [12] - The vehicle aims to meet the demands of younger consumers for intelligent features while reinforcing Buick's high-end brand image in the business vehicle market [12]

（原标题：巴西企业将与长安汽车合作在巴销售） 巴西《经济价值报》11月27日报道，巴西CAOA企业宣布将于明年开始与中国品牌长安汽车合作在 巴西生产销售。目前，CAOA的工厂年产量为6万辆，预计今年将达到7万辆。除生产和销售外，CAOA 还拥有奇瑞、现代、福特等品牌的140家经销店。目前CAOA工厂新装配线的建设资金全部来自于长安 汽车，未来双方或将共同研发专为巴西市场打造的车型。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The proposal by former President Trump to terminate strict fuel economy standards set by the Biden administration poses a significant challenge to Europe's aggressive policies on banning fuel vehicles, highlighting a shift in the automotive industry's dynamics towards a more sustainable and diversified future led by China's oil-electric hybrid strategy [1][9]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Impacts - Trump's proposal aims to reduce the average cost of purchasing new cars by $1,000, potentially saving Americans $109 billion over five years [3]. - The new fuel efficiency standard proposed by Trump's administration requires vehicles to achieve approximately 34 miles per gallon by 2031, compared to Biden's target of 50 miles per gallon [2]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The automotive industry's core profits are derived from fuel vehicles, and the transition to electric vehicles represents a significant restructuring of interests, with traditional automakers facing survival pressures due to lost profits from engine manufacturing and after-sales services [4]. - The shift in stance among U.S. automakers from supporting electric vehicle initiatives to opposing stringent regulations reflects the industry's struggle with profit erosion amid changing policies [4]. Group 3: European Market Challenges - European automakers are under severe pressure from the EU's legislation to ban fuel vehicles by 2035, which is seen as overly ambitious and detrimental to businesses [5]. - The EU's "Fit for 55" plan aims for a 55% reduction in new car carbon emissions by 2030, with a complete transition to zero emissions by 2035, but this has led to some companies planning to abandon engine development altogether [5]. Group 4: Global Automotive Trends - The trend of oil-electric hybrid strategies is gaining traction globally, with Asian automakers, particularly Chinese brands like BYD, Geely, and Chery, significantly increasing their market share [7][8]. - The global automotive market remains predominantly fuel-based, with 73% of vehicles still using fuel, indicating that a rapid transition to electric vehicles is unlikely in the short term [8]. Group 5: China's Strategic Position - China's oil-electric hybrid strategy is viewed as a successful model, with the recent release of the 3.0 roadmap emphasizing the continued importance of internal combustion engines alongside electric vehicles [10]. - By 2040, it is projected that 85% of new passenger vehicles in China will be electric, with a significant market still remaining for non-pure electric models, positioning Chinese automakers as key players in the global automotive technology landscape [10].

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 天眼查资料显示，重庆长安汽车股份有限公司，成立于1996年，位于重庆市，是一家以从事汽车制造业 为主的企业。企业注册资本991408.606万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，重庆长安汽车股份有限公司 共对外投资了119家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息3129条，专利信息5000 条，此外企业还拥有行政许可1053个。 国家知识产权局信息显示，重庆长安汽车股份有限公司取得一项名为"目标优化方法、装置、设备及存 储介质"的专利，授权公告号CN115808684B，申请日期为2022年11月。 ...

格隆汇12月6日｜12月5日晚，长安汽车金融有限公司发布声明称，有两名人员近日向公司联系反馈，其 收到以"长安汽车金融"名义发送的催收短信，经初步核实，该类催收短信为不法分子冒用公司名义发 送，不排除存在持续对不特定公众进行大规模发送的情况，该行为已涉嫌违法犯罪。声明称，作为持牌 金融机构，公司始终严格依法合规催收，不会采取现金方式或通过任何第三人银行账户向消费者收取任 何款项。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector are initiating a collective counter-offensive to improve their market position and operational efficiency, following a series of IPO applications and capital operations aimed at enhancing their competitiveness against private companies like BYD and Tesla [1][2][10]. Group 1: Market Performance and Challenges - From January to November, BYD achieved cumulative sales of 4.182 million vehicles, while Tesla's sales in China were lower but still significant due to its global influence and profitability [3]. - In contrast, major SOEs like SAIC Motor and Changan Automobile reported significantly lower sales figures, with SAIC selling 1.499 million NEVs and Changan 995,000 NEVs during the same period [3]. - The performance of high-end brands under these SOEs, such as Lantu and Avita, remains modest, with annual sales ranging from tens of thousands to a few hundred thousand units, indicating a struggle to capture market attention and innovate effectively [3]. Group 2: Financial Struggles and Strategic Shifts - Private companies have established sustainable profit paths through vertical integration and technology development, with BYD reporting a net profit of 23.33 billion yuan and Tesla 2.91 billion USD (approximately 20.91 billion yuan) in the first three quarters of the year [4]. - In contrast, many SOE NEV businesses are still in the investment phase, facing significant losses, such as Avita's cumulative loss exceeding 11 billion yuan and Lantu's loss of about 3.1 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [4]. - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is pushing for performance assessments focused on efficiency and returns, prompting SOEs to seek market-driven reforms and independent operations [4][5]. Group 3: Capitalization and Market Mechanisms - The recent wave of IPOs and financing is viewed as a critical move for SOEs to establish independent operational mechanisms and secure necessary funding for R&D and market expansion [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that independent listings will compel these companies to improve governance structures and attract talent, addressing historical inefficiencies in innovation [7]. - The goal is to balance the manufacturing strengths of traditional SOEs with the agility and resources gained from capital markets, creating a new competitive edge [7]. Group 4: Future Industry Dynamics - The influx of capital will intensify competition in technology differentiation and production scale, with brands needing to effectively convert funding into production and sales to maintain cash flow [8]. - The industry is expected to undergo significant consolidation, with predictions that the number of NEV manufacturers in China could shrink to fewer than 15, making successful IPOs a critical factor for survival [9][10]. - Global market expansion will become increasingly important, as domestic competition intensifies, and SOEs leverage their parent companies' global strategies to compete internationally [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index (970064) closed at 1668.3 points on December 5, with a 1.95% increase and a trading volume of 32.01 billion yuan, indicating positive market sentiment towards state-owned enterprises [1]. Group 1: Index Performance - The index saw 43 constituent stocks rise, with Electric Power Investment leading at a 6.96% increase, while 6 stocks declined, with China Merchants Shekou leading the decline at 1.91% [1]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the index include BOE Technology Group (9.31% weight, 4.26 yuan, 5.19% increase) and Huatai Securities (3.84% weight, 5.19 yuan, 1.96% increase) [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds into the index's constituent stocks totaled 1.242 billion yuan, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 365 million yuan [3]. - Major stocks like BOE Technology Group had a net inflow of 901 million yuan, while other stocks like Tongling Nonferrous Metals saw a net inflow of 205 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Index Adjustments - Recent adjustments to the index included the addition of 10 new stocks and the removal of 10 stocks, reflecting changes in market dynamics [4]. - New additions include Zhongmi Holdings (total market value 7.349 billion yuan) and Gujing Gongjiu (total market value 87.906 billion yuan), while removals include Xinyu Media and Yanghe Brewery [4].