Core Insights - COMEX gold, silver, and copper prices experienced a decline, while aluminum prices rose over 3%, indicating strong performance in aluminum-related stocks [1] - As of the end of November, COMEX gold has appreciated over 52% this year, but the volatility has increased significantly, leading to a widening divergence in market sentiment [1] - Central bank activities regarding gold purchases or sales are identified as the primary explanatory variable for current gold prices, with recent sales by the Philippine and Russian central banks raising concerns about overvaluation [1] Group 1 - COMEX gold prices have seen a significant increase of over 52% year-to-date as of November [1] - The volatility in gold prices has intensified, with a notable increase in market divergence [1] - Central banks' gold purchasing and selling activities are crucial factors influencing gold price movements, with recent sales by the Philippine and Russian central banks indicating potential overvaluation [1] Group 2 - The outlook for central bank gold purchases and increased investment demand is expected to support higher precious metal prices in the medium to long term [2] - Short-term factors such as low inventory levels and potential demand release are likely to increase price elasticity, with silver recently reaching new highs [2] - Key resistance levels for London gold are identified at 4250 and 4400, with support at 4000 [2]

中国铝业（601600）(02600)早盘涨超4%，截至发稿，涨3.34%，报11.13港元，成交额2.25亿港元。 汇丰发布研报称，展望明年中国铝行业基本面转强，下游需求持续增长，潜在供应短缺会成为市场关注 重点，预期中国产能维持4,500万吨上限，全球新增产能则依然有限，在电动车行业发展及电网投资的 支持下，中国需求维持稳固，来自建筑行业的拖累预期减弱，预料2026年铝价将按年增长6%，并存在 上行风险，继续列铝业股为中国材料板块的首选。 消息面上，中国铝业近日宣布，云铝股份（000807）拟向云南冶金收购云铝涌鑫、云铝润鑫及云铝泓鑫 股权。这三家公司均为云铝股份的控股子公司。本次收购完成后，云南冶金不再持有三家公司股权，有 利于云铝股份优化所属企业股权结构，实现铝资产专业化归集，提高权益电解铝产能，符合云铝股份做 优做强核心主业的战略目标。 ...

Core Points - The Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index (470064) closed at 2227.58 points, down 0.36%, with a trading volume of 18.448 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.74% [1] - Among the index constituents, 18 stocks rose while 31 stocks fell, with XCMG Machinery leading the gainers at 3.44% and Yanghe Brewery leading the decliners at 2.43% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index reported a decline of 0.36% on the trading day [1] - The total trading volume for the index was 18.448 billion yuan, indicating a relatively low turnover rate of 0.74% [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - The top-performing stock was XCMG Machinery, which increased by 3.44% [1] - The worst-performing stock was Yanghe Brewery, which decreased by 2.43% [1] - The index's top ten constituents included major companies such as BOE Technology Group, Hikvision, and Wuliangye, with varying weightings and market capitalizations [1] Group 3: Capital Flow - The index constituents experienced a net outflow of 769 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 701 million yuan [3] - XCMG Machinery had a net inflow of 118 million yuan from institutional investors, despite overall negative trends in capital flow for many stocks [3] Group 4: Index Adjustments - Recent adjustments to the index included the addition of 10 new stocks and the removal of 10 existing stocks, reflecting changes in market dynamics [4] - Notable additions included companies from various sectors such as machinery, transportation, and food and beverage [4]

A股 - Minmetals Capital's announcement of a related party transaction has drawn industry attention, with its subsidiary Minmetals Trust planning to jointly invest in a joint venture with Minmetals Real Estate, injecting 300 million yuan in cash and an asset package valued at 16.29 billion yuan [2] - The results of the subscription for Moer Thread, known as the "first domestic GPU stock," were announced, with public funds, social security funds, and pension funds acquiring approximately 38.59 million shares, accounting for 98.44% of the offline final issuance [2] - Yunnan Aluminum announced plans to acquire stakes in three aluminum companies from Yunnan Metallurgical Group, while AVIC Helicopter's subsidiary plans to merge with another wholly-owned subsidiary [2] 港股 - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a surge, surpassing the NYSE and NASDAQ, aiming to become the top global fundraising market for new stocks by 2025, with 81 new listings raising a total of 215.98 billion HKD in the first ten months of the year [3] - More than half of the fundraising amount in Hong Kong has come from 14 A-share companies, with notable price discrepancies between A-shares and H-shares, exemplified by CATL's H-share price being over 14% higher than its A-share price [3] 理财 - In November, nine dividend-themed funds were established, raising a total of 6.615 billion yuan, marking a new monthly high for the year, with significant contributions from several funds launched on November 25 [4] - Major state-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have begun to withdraw 5-year large-denomination time deposits, focusing on shorter-term products, with a broad impact across various banks [4] - Sixteen technology-themed funds have been approved, including several ETFs focused on artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors, with some products receiving approval on the same day they were submitted [4] 个人养老金 - As the year-end personal pension contribution window approaches, banks are intensifying promotional efforts, offering exclusive benefits to attract customers to open accounts and contribute funds, with potential subsidies of around 600 yuan for maximum contributions [5] 债务 - The issuance of new local special bonds in November is expected to reach 492.2 billion yuan, an increase of over 200 billion yuan from the previous month, alongside a significant rise in refinancing bonds [5] 其他 - From January to October, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China totaled 595.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing being the main profit growth drivers [6] - China remains the world's largest market for industrial robots, with significant improvements in performance and quality, and a projected increase in domestic multi-joint robot sales [6] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new credit repair management method, effective from April 1, 2026, allowing credit subjects to apply for credit repair under certain conditions [6] - China's foreign direct investment reached 1,033.23 billion yuan in the first ten months, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with investments made in 9553 overseas enterprises across 152 countries and regions [7] - The Chinese medical device market is expected to reach 1.22 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by innovation, with a record number of approved innovative medical devices [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum price is experiencing high-level fluctuations due to inventory depletion and macroeconomic factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][10] - The demand for aluminum is gradually entering a low season, with the aluminum water conversion rate facing downward pressure [10] - Long-term supply growth in the aluminum industry is limited, while demand still has growth points, indicating sustained high prosperity in the industry [10] Summary by Sections 1. Price - As of November 28, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $2865.0 per ton, up $57.0 from the previous week, a 2.0% increase week-on-week, and up $263.0 year-on-year, a 10.1% increase [22] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is 21610.0 yuan per ton, up 270.0 yuan from the previous week, a 1.3% increase week-on-week, and up 1035.0 yuan year-on-year, a 5.0% increase [22] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang is 21430.0 yuan per ton, up 70.0 yuan from the previous week, a 0.3% increase week-on-week, and up 910.0 yuan year-on-year, a 4.4% increase [22] 2. Production - In November 2025, the aluminum production is 363.7 million tons, a decrease of 10.6 million tons month-on-month, and a decrease of 6.6 million tons year-on-year [51] - The alumina production in November 2025 is 743.9 million tons, a decrease of 34.6 million tons month-on-month, but an increase of 15.2 million tons year-on-year [51] 3. Inventory - As of November 27, the domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory is 596,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons week-on-week, indicating a continued trend of inventory reduction [7] - The aluminum rod inventory is 131,000 tons, down 6500 tons week-on-week, reflecting a steady decline in inventory [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 2.25 yuan for 2024, increasing to 2.54 yuan in 2025E and 2.77 yuan in 2026E [5] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 0.96 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.00 yuan in 2025E and 1.27 yuan in 2026E [5] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) is rated "Buy" with an EPS forecast of 1.91 yuan for 2024, increasing to 2.13 yuan in 2025E and 2.56 yuan in 2026E [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a rebound in metal prices [2]. Core Views - The report highlights three main industry perspectives: 1. The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is likely to benefit both base and precious metals, leading to price increases [6]. 2. Silver prices have reached historical highs due to low inventory levels and rising demand, supported by the Fed's dovish stance [6]. 3. Ongoing supply disruptions in copper mining are expected to lead to reduced smelting capacity and higher copper prices [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector includes 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 457.86 billion yuan, representing 3.86% of the overall market [3]. - Recent performance metrics show a 67.3% increase in absolute performance over the past year, with a relative performance increase of 50.4% [4]. Key Events and Impacts - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting indicated a significant division among officials regarding future rate cuts, with market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in December rising to 86.4% [6]. - Silver prices surged to 12,727 yuan per kilogram, marking a 9% increase from the previous week, attributed to low inventory levels and strong demand [6]. - Copper smelting capacity is projected to face reductions due to ongoing supply disruptions, with expectations of a decrease in processing fees, which may support higher copper prices [6]. Company Insights - Yunnan Aluminum Co. plans to acquire stakes in several subsidiaries for 2.267 billion yuan, increasing its electrolytic aluminum capacity by 154,500 tons [8]. - Tianshan Aluminum has initiated a green low-carbon efficiency improvement project, expected to enhance its annual production capacity to 1.4 million tons [8]. - China Hongqiao has completed a share placement, raising approximately 11.49 billion HKD for project development and debt repayment, indicating strong confidence in future growth [10]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on precious metals and copper-aluminum sectors, highlighting companies such as Zijin Mining, Jinchuan Group, and China Hongqiao as key investment opportunities [11].

Core Points - The Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index (470064) closed at 2212.99 points, up 0.51% with a trading volume of 16.404 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.67% [1] - Among the index constituents, 36 stocks rose while 12 fell, with China Steel International leading the gainers at 2.67% and China Merchants Shekou leading the decliners at 2.63% [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index include: - BOE Technology Group (9.31% weight, latest price 3.86, market cap 144.418 billion yuan) in the electronics sector - Hikvision (7.97% weight, latest price 30.02, market cap 275.129 billion yuan) in the computer sector - Wuliangye Yibin (7.71% weight, latest price 117.85, market cap 457.448 billion yuan) in the food and beverage sector - Luzhou Laojiao (6.59% weight, latest price 135.88, market cap 200.007 billion yuan) in the food and beverage sector - XCMG Machinery (5.75% weight, latest price 10.32, market cap 121.291 billion yuan) in the machinery sector - Changan Automobile (3.88% weight, latest price 11.94, market cap 118.374 billion yuan) in the automotive sector - Shenwan Hongyuan (3.84% weight, latest price 5.15, market cap 128.956 billion yuan) in the non-banking financial sector - Yunnan Aluminum (3.81% weight, latest price 24.70, market cap 85.659 billion yuan) in the non-ferrous metals sector - Yanghe Brewery (3.37% weight, latest price 66.20, market cap 99.727 billion yuan) in the food and beverage sector - Tongling Nonferrous Metals (3.18% weight, latest price 5.10, market cap 68.388 billion yuan) in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net inflow of main funds into the index constituents totaled 56.5973 million yuan, while speculative funds saw a net outflow of 69.8164 million yuan, and retail investors had a net inflow of 13.2191 million yuan [3] - Notable capital flows include: - Changan Automobile experienced a main fund net outflow of 54.1716 million yuan - China Steel International had a main fund net inflow of 31.1027 million yuan - Hikvision saw a main fund net inflow of 27.5848 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's stock price has increased significantly, rising from HKD 3.98 to HKD 10.48, a gain of over 160% in seven months, indicating a potential continuation of this bullish trend [1] Acquisition Details - Yunnan Aluminum, a subsidiary of China Aluminum, plans to acquire stakes in three companies from Yunnan Metallurgy for a total consideration of CNY 2.267 billion, to be paid in two installments [1][5] - The acquisition aims to enhance the net profit attributable to shareholders and optimize the equity structure of Yunnan Aluminum [1][5] Financial Performance of Target Companies - The three target companies have varying performance; Yunnan Aluminum Yongxin is expected to have a net profit of CNY 608 million in 2024, while Yunnan Aluminum Runxin's profit is projected to drop by 72.3% to CNY 104 million, and Yunnan Aluminum Hongxin is expected to incur a loss of CNY 3 million [1][5] Valuation Methods - The valuation of the target companies was conducted using asset-based and income approaches, with significant discrepancies noted; for instance, Yunnan Aluminum Yongxin's valuation ranged from CNY 3.038 billion to CNY 5.308 billion [2][4] - The acquisition will result in a total goodwill of CNY 1.099 billion, representing 48.5% of the acquisition price [2][4] Financial Impact on China Aluminum - Post-acquisition, the net asset value of Yunnan Aluminum will increase by CNY 1.255 billion, and goodwill will rise by CNY 1.099 billion, impacting China Aluminum's financial statements positively [5][6] - The acquisition resolves competition issues within China Aluminum's subsidiaries and allows for a more focused expansion in aluminum products [6][7] Market Outlook and Shareholder Returns - China Aluminum has a history of generous dividends, with cumulative payouts reaching CNY 9.2 billion since 2021, and a dividend payout ratio of 21% [8] - Institutional investors, including CITIC Securities, have shown confidence in the company, increasing their holdings significantly [8][9] - Analysts predict continued growth in net profit, with estimates for 2025-2027 ranging from CNY 146.35 billion to CNY 177.2 billion, reflecting a positive outlook for the company [9]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's stock price has increased significantly, rising from HKD 3.98 to HKD 10.48, a gain of over 160% in seven months, indicating a potential continuation of this bullish trend [1] Acquisition Details - Yunnan Aluminum, a subsidiary of China Aluminum, plans to acquire stakes in three companies from Yunnan Metallurgy for a total transaction price of CNY 2.267 billion, to be paid in two installments [1][7] - The acquisition will increase Yunnan Aluminum's ownership in the three companies to 96.08%, 97.46%, and 100% respectively, enhancing its profit and investment returns [1][7] Financial Performance of Target Companies - The three target companies have varying performance; Yunnan Yongxin is stable with a projected net profit of CNY 608 million for 2024, while Yunnan Runxin's profit is expected to drop by 72.3% to CNY 104 million, and Yunnan Hongxin is projected to incur a loss of CNY 3 million [1][6] Valuation Methods - The valuation of the target companies was conducted using asset-based and income approaches, with significant discrepancies noted; for instance, Yunnan Yongxin's valuation ranged from CNY 3.038 billion to CNY 5.308 billion [2][4] Goodwill Impact - The acquisition will generate a total goodwill of CNY 1.099 billion, representing 48.5% of the acquisition price, with Yunnan Yongxin contributing CNY 718 million and Yunnan Runxin CNY 379 million [6][11] Financial Metrics Post-Acquisition - Following the acquisition, Yunnan Aluminum's net asset value will increase by CNY 1.255 billion, and its net profit attributable to shareholders will rise by CNY 715 million, significantly impacting China Aluminum's financial statements [7][8] Strategic Positioning - The acquisition resolves competition issues within China Aluminum's subsidiaries and allows Yunnan Aluminum to focus on expanding its aluminum product offerings, maintaining its global leadership in various aluminum segments [9][11] Market Outlook - China Aluminum has shown resilience with a projected revenue growth of 1.57% in the first three quarters of 2025, despite previous declines, and is expected to maintain double-digit growth in net profit [9][10] - The company has a strong dividend policy, having distributed CNY 9.2 billion in dividends since 2021, with a current dividend yield of 2.7% [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum (601600) (02600) opened over 4% higher, currently up 4.13% at HKD 10.83, with a trading volume of HKD 7.6027 million [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - China Aluminum announced an acquisition agreement between Yun Aluminum (000807) and Yunnan Metallurgy, where Yun Aluminum plans to acquire 28.7425% of Yun Aluminum Yongxin, 27.3137% of Yun Aluminum Runxin, and 30% of Yun Aluminum Hongxin through a non-public cash transfer agreement [1] - Upon completion of the acquisition, Yun Aluminum's ownership in Yun Aluminum Yongxin, Yun Aluminum Runxin, and Yun Aluminum Hongxin will increase to 96.0766%, 97.4560%, and 100% respectively [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - This acquisition will allow Yun Aluminum to optimize its equity structure and enhance the specialization of aluminum assets, aligning with its strategic goal of strengthening its core business [1] - The assets and financial status of Yun Aluminum Yongxin, Yun Aluminum Runxin, and Yun Aluminum Hongxin are reported to be strong, and the acquisition is expected to further improve the net profit attributable to shareholders and enhance investment returns [1]